3/9/2016 - nast

3/9/2016

1

Revisiting (Past & Future) the Kaliwa Dam for Metro

Manila’s Water Supply and Balog-Balog Multipurpose

Dam for Tarlac’s Irrigation Water Supply

Guillermo Q. Tabios IIIInstitute of Civil Engineering &

National Hydraulic Research Center, UP Diliman

and National Academy of Science and Technology

Water Infrastructure S&T Policy Discussion

National Academy of Science and Technology

Microtel Hotel, Diliman, Quezon City

March 9, 2016

Outline

• Water Supply of Metro Manila

• New Centennial Water Supply Project: Kaliwa Dam

• Tarlac Irrigation System and Balog-Balog Multipurpose Dam

• Balog-Balog Single, High Dam versus Multiple Dam

System

3/9/2016

2

Water Sources of

Metro Manila

• Angat Reservoir

with Ipo and La

Mesa Dams

• Umiray Transbasin

Transfer

• Laguna Lake

• Kaliwa Dam (New

Project)

• Groundwater

Pumping

Angat Reservoir

Ipo Dam

Umiray Transbasin

Transfer

La Mesa Dam

Kaliwa Dam

(New Project)

Groundwater

Pumping

Laguna

Lake

BTP 1BTP 2

LMTP 1

900 MLD

1500 MLD

LMTP 2

MWCI

UMIRAY – ANGAT

TUNNEL

ANGAT RESERVOIR

(NPC)IPO DAM (MWSS)

UMIRAY DIVERSION

DAM (MWSS)

LA MESA

RESERVOIR

BICTI

BASINS

INTAKE 1

INTAKE 2

470 MLD1130 MLD

INTAKE 3

NOVALICHES

DIVERSION WEIR

BYPASS

IPO - BICTI TUNNELS

BICTI -

NOVALICHES

AQUEDUCTS

ALAT DAM (MWCI)

NOVALICHES –

BALARA AQUEDUCTS

NOVALICHES

PORTALS

MWCI

3/9/2016

3

Laguna Lake Water Source: Putatan Intake Structure

Location of

Groundwater Water

Permits

Amounts Granted:

•Entire Area: 1340 MLD

•Metro Manila Area:

780 MLD

3/9/2016

4

2015 Water Demand:

5500 MLD

2015 Water Supply

Available: 5030 MLD

• Angat 4200 MLD

• Laguna Lake 100 MLD

(+ 200 MLD)

• Groundwater 780 MLD

(++? MLD)

Metro Manila Water Demand (MWSS Projection)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

YEAR

FL

OW

RA

TE

, M

LD

DEMAND (MLD)

Reliability

Analysis Angat

Reservoir under

Increased Water

Demand,

Sedimentation and

Climate Change

Angat Reservoir

Releases to

Ipo Dam (CMS) for

MWSS Domestic

Water Demand

Month Demand (CMS)

Jan 36.00

Feb 39.86

Mar 31.00

Apr 15.50

May 0.00

Jun 27.90

Jul 28.00

Aug 25.00

Sep 22.73

Oct 13.00

Nov 17.57

Dec 34.00

Irrigation Water Demand

46 CMS MWSS

Dem

50 CMS MWSS

Dem

Future Reservoir

Sed with 46

CMS Dem

Climate Change

with 46 CMS

Dem

Fut Res Sed and

Climate Chan

with 50 CMS

Dem

Jan 80 46.00 47.36 4.59 46.00 6.94

60 46.00 50.00 9.79 46.00 14.60

40 46.00 50.00 19.13 46.00 31.36

Feb 80 29.77 23.79 3.37 31.49 2.29

60 46.00 47.72 5.79 46.00 4.01

40 46.00 50.00 10.78 46.00 6.88

Mar 80 5.70 3.79 3.06 4.91 2.53

60 36.70 30.51 5.26 39.95 4.38

40 46.00 50.00 9.74 46.00 7.83

Apr 80 4.09 3.74 3.67 2.98 2.44

60 19.43 12.80 7.09 14.31 4.50

40 46.00 50.00 15.50 46.00 9.91

May 80 14.38 13.49 8.41 3.13 2.06

60 46.00 50.00 23.85 14.18 6.11

40 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 12.35

Jun 80 46.00 50.00 27.29 38.19 20.01

60 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 37.85

40 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

July 80 46.00 50.00 43.32 46.00 32.99

60 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

40 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

Aug 80 46.00 50.00 44.30 46.00 40.15

60 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

40 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

Sep 80 46.00 50.00 38.06 46.00 36.29

60 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

40 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

Oct 80 46.00 50.00 23.32 46.00 34.52

60 46.00 50.00 45.76 46.00 50.00

40 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

Nov 80 46.00 50.00 13.52 46.00 12.54

60 46.00 50.00 29.94 46.00 26.02

40 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

Dec 80 46.00 50.00 9.32 46.00 15.53

60 46.00 50.00 19.79 46.00 34.64

40 46.00 50.00 46.00 46.00 50.00

Percent of

TimeMonth

Angat Releases to Ipo Dam (CMS)

3/9/2016

5

Reliability

Analysis Angat

Reservoir under

Increased Water

Demand,

Sedimentation and

Climate Change

Angat Reservoir

Releases to

Bustos Dam

(CMS) for NIA-

AMRIS Irrigation

Demand

Month Demand (CMS)

Jan 36.00

Feb 39.86

Mar 31.00

Apr 15.50

May 0.00

Jun 27.90

Jul 28.00

Aug 25.00

Sep 22.73

Oct 13.00

Nov 17.57

Dec 34.00

Irrigation Water Demand

46 CMS MWSS

Dem

50 CMS MWSS

Dem

Future Reservoir

Sed with 46

CMS Dem

Climate Change

with 46 CMS

Dem

Fut Res Sed and

Climate Chan

with 50 CMS

Dem

Jan 80 36.00 34.42 0.00 36.00 0.00

60 36.00 36.00 0.00 36.00 0.00

40 45.98 49.85 0.00 45.98 1.08

Feb 80 27.49 20.50 0.00 29.34 0.00

60 39.82 34.97 0.00 39.82 0.00

40 39.86 39.86 0.00 39.86 0.00

Mar 80 1.31 0.08 0.00 0.83 0.00

60 22.07 15.50 0.00 23.83 0.00

40 31.00 31.00 0.00 31.00 0.00

Apr 80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

40 15.50 15.50 0.00 15.50 0.00

May 80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Jun 80 27.90 27.90 0.00 6.27 0.00

60 27.90 27.90 5.57 27.90 0.00

40 27.90 27.90 27.90 27.90 8.23

July 80 28.00 28.00 0.00 25.00 0.00

60 28.00 28.00 25.00 28.00 7.82

40 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00

Aug 80 25.00 25.00 0.00 25.00 0.00

60 25.00 25.00 22.73 25.00 19.78

40 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00

Sep 80 22.73 22.73 0.00 22.73 0.00

60 22.73 22.73 13.00 22.73 11.38

40 22.73 22.73 22.73 22.73 22.73

Oct 80 13.00 13.00 0.00 13.00 0.00

60 13.00 13.00 0.81 13.00 13.00

40 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00

Nov 80 17.57 17.57 0.00 17.57 0.00

60 17.57 17.57 0.00 17.57 0.00

40 17.57 17.57 15.96 17.57 7.00

Dec 80 36.00 36.00 0.00 36.00 0.00

60 36.00 36.00 0.00 36.00 0.00

40 45.99 49.99 10.60 45.99 34.15

MonthPercent of

Time

Angat Releases to Bustos Dam (CMS)

New Centennial Water Supply: Kaliwa Dam Project

2012 NHRC-UP Diliman Study:To evaluate and conduct reliability and sustainability analysis of Kaliwa, Kanan and Agos River basins of various river/reservoir/dam configurations for water supply for Metro Manila including hydropower potential and flood control function.

3/9/2016

6

Location of Study Area

/Agos River Basin

(951.7 sq. km)

(Assembled 1:50,000-

Scale NAMRIA Maps)

General Layout and Location of Components

3/9/2016

7

WRS 3: Kaliwa-Low & Laiban Dams & Kanan Diversion (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay

Transfer Facilities)

Kanan Diversion

WRS 4: Kaliwa Low, Laiban & Kanan Dams (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 5: Kaliwa Low, Laiban, Kanan & Agos Dams (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay


WRS 6: Laiban Dam Only (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 1: Kaliwa Low Dam (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 2: Kaliwa Low Dam and Laiban Dam (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 7: Kaliwa Low & Kanan Dams (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 8: Laiban Dam & Agos Dam (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 9: Kaliwa Low & Agos Dams (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 3: Kaliwa-Low & Laiban Dams & Kanan Diversion (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay


Kanan Diversion

WRS 1: Kaliwa Low Dam (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 2: Kaliwa Low Dam and Laiban Dam (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 7: Kaliwa Low & Kanan Dams (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 8: Laiban Dam & Agos Dam (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

WRS 9: Kaliwa Low & Agos Dams (Thru Kaliwa – Baras or Tanay Transfer Facilities)

9 Alternative Water Resources System Configurations for Simulation-Optimization Studies

Watershed and

Sub-basin

Delineations of

Agos-Kaliwa-Kanan

River Basin

3/9/2016

8

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Da

ily F

low

s (

CM

S)

Laiban Dam Site (Qave=19.951 CMS)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Daily

Flo

ws (

CM

S)

Kaliwa Low Dam Site (Qave=26.084 CMS)

3/9/2016

9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Reservoir Releases (cumecs)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Pe

r C

en

t o

f T

ime

0 4 8 12Average Flow Deficit (cumecs)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Em

pir

ical

CD

F

0 100 200 300Number of Consecutive Days at Flow Deficit

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Em

pir

cal

CD

F

Kaliwa River Flows

(at Kaliwa Low Dam Site)

• Average Flows = 26.01 CMS

(has a reliability of 40.27%)

• Flow of 15 CMS has a

reliability of 64.01%)

3/9/2016

10

0 4 8 12 16Average Flow Deficit (cumecs)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Em

pir

ica

l C

DF

0 200 400 600 800Number of Consecutive Days at Flow Deficit

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Em

pir

ca

l C

DF

0 10 20 30 40Reservoir Releases (cumecs)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Per

Ce

nt

of

Tim

e

Kaliwa River Flows

(at Laiban Dam Site)

• Average Flows = 19.21 CMS

(has a reliability of 40.08%)

• Flow of 20 CMS has a

reliability of 38.10%)

• Runs Analysis at Flow Demand

= 20 CMS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

120 160 200 240 280 320

Are

a (

Ha.)

Elevation (m)

Laiban Elevation-Area-Storage Curve

Elevation

(m)

Surface Area

(Ha.)

Storage

(MCM)

177 0.0 0.00

180 17.0 0.25

200 133.0 14.99

220 393.9 52.69

240 994.9 138.88

260 1,988.9 298.38

280 2,759.4 474.83

Elevation-Area-Storage Data for the Proposed Laiban Reservoir

3/9/2016

11

Elevation-Area-Storage Data for the Proposed Kanan Reservoir

Elevation

(m)

Surface Area

(Ha.)

Storage

(MCM)

159 0.0 0.00

160 2.3 0.01

180 83.5 8.58

200 220.2 30.37

220 363.5 58.37

240 589.8 95.33

260 962.5 155.23

280 1,628.3 259.07

300 2,609.3 423.76

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

120 160 200 240 280 320

Are

a (H

a.)

Elevation (m)

Kanan Elevation -Area -Storage Curve

Flood Inundation Areas at Different Kaliwa Low Dam Elevations

(Note: Elevation 160 m is dam height of 53 m)

NOTE: The above flood inundation areas were based on NASA SRTM data which were validated by

GPS random sampling during field survey early 2012.

3/9/2016

12

Kaliwa Low Dam

Dam Elevation = 160 m

Dam Height = 53 m

Flow Demand = 15 CMS

Time Series Plots

0 3650 7300 10950 14600 18250

050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700

Da

ily

In

flo

ws

(c

um

ec

s)

0 3650 7300 10950 14600 18250

110

120

130

140

150

160

En

d-o

f-D

ay

Re

se

rvo

ir E

lev

(m

)

0 3650 7300 10950 14600 18250Hours (3650 hours = 10 years)

0

10

20

30

40

Res

erv

oir

Re

lea

se

s (

cu

me

cs

)

Laiban Dam

Dam Elevation = 260 m

Dam Height = 83 m

Flow Demand = 20 CMS

Time Series Plots

0 3650 7300 10950 14600 18250

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Da

ily

In

flo

ws

(c

um

ec

s)

0 3650 7300 10950 14600 18250

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

En

d-o

f-D

ay

Re

se

rvo

ir E

lev

(m

)

0 3650 7300 10950 14600 18250Hours (3650 hours = 10 years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Res

erv

oir

Re

lea

se

s (

cu

me

cs

)

3/9/2016

13

Target

Release

(CMS)

Water Supply Reliability (in MLD)

50% 80% 85%

10 1930 864 864

15 1612 1294 924

20 1728 833 585

Kaliwa Low Dam 53 m

Target

Release

(CMS)

Power Reliability (MW)

50% 80% 85%

10 32.52 15.96 8.70

15 30.20 17.62 9.32

20 25.86 17.94 4.91

Target

Release

(CMS)

Water Supply Reliability (MLD)

50% 80% 85%

10 1914 864 864

15 1613 1064 699

20 1728 718 549

Target

Release

(CMS)


50% 80% 85%

10 27.34 12.75 8.13

15 26.48 14.52 7.01

20 22.94 13.64 4.01

Kaliwa Low Dam 43 m

Kaliwa Low Dam Only

Note: Target release is desired release imposed in the optimization. The results show

that the optimum target release is 15 CMS which implies that an aggressive reservoir

release rule (high target release) will result in less flow reliability. However, too

passive release rule result in lower firm water yield but have higher reliability

especially at 85 percent-of-time.

Cases

Target

Release

(CMS)


50% 80% 85%

1 20/15 1555 549 403

2 20/20 1602 898 694

3 20/25 1668 899 657

4 25/15 1642 534 408

5 25/20 1637 561 395

Laiban Dam 93 m

Laiban Dam and Kaliwa Low Dam

Notes:

• Target release is desired release imposed in the optimization. In Case 1, 20/15 target release means 20

CMS for Laiban Dam and 15 CMS for Kaliwa Low Dam.

• The results show that the optimum target release is Case 2 (20/20) which implies that an aggressive

reservoir release rule (high target release) will result in less flow reliability. However, too passive release

rule result in lower firm water yield but higher reliability at higher percent-of-time.

• The releases at Laiban Dam goes to Kaliwa Low Dam so only the water supply reliability of Kaliwa Low

Dam is meaningful to deliveries to Metro Manila.

• The hydropower generated are separate for Laiban and Kaliwa Low Dams so that for Case 2 at 60%

reliability, the total is 72.56 MW.

Cases

Target

Release

(CMS)


40% 60% 80%

1 20/15 40.39 23.90 8.90

2 20/20 42.10 34.55 17.68

3 20/25 40.88 29.43 14.60

4 25/15 37.02 21.76 7.89

5 25/20 41.35 25.05 8.76

Cases

Target

Release

(CMS)


50% 80% 85%

1 20/15 2152 1296 260

2 20/20 1926 1655 1527

3 20/25 2263 1724 1385

4 25/15 2335 1296 1251

5 25/20 2119 1441 1141

Cases

Target

Release

(CMS)


40% 60% 80%

1 20/15 36.78 25.45 15.50

2 20/20 30.46 26.33 22.20

3 20/25 34.70 30.56 16.53

4 25/15 38.75 27.58 15.69

5 25/20 34.95 26.27 16.11

Kaliwa Low Dam 53 m

3/9/2016

14

Project Sequencing with 85% Reliability

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

YEAR

FL

OW

RA

TE

, M

LD

DEMAND (MLD) SUPPLY (MLD)

Kaliwa Low Dam

2020?

Laiban Dam 2025?

Kanan Dam 203?

Kanan Diversion 203?

Agos Dam 204?

Angat Dam

Laguna

Groundwater

Balog-Balog Multipurpose Dam and Tarlac River Irrigation System

2014 PIDS Policy Notes:Appraisal of Methodology in Estimating Irrigable Areas and Processes of Evaluating Feasibility of NIA Irrigation Projects (Tabios and David)2015 NHRC-UP Diliman Study:Reliability and Cost-Benefit Analyses of theBalog-Balog Multipurpose Dam versusBalog-Balog Multiple Dam Project

3/9/2016

15

Year Wet (has) Dry (has)

1976 12904 4253

1977 12473 3934

1978 11263 3184

1979 10910 1488

1980 10765 2496

1981 10811 2089

1982 13595 2389

1983 10638 2866

1984 11120 1647

1985 11751 4689

1986 8883 3198

1987 9459 2415

1988 9815 2310

1989 9868 3948

1990 11202 3864

1991 0 447

1992 1576 1263

1993 0 0

1994 0 0

1995 0 0

1996 0 0

1997 680 0

1998 2129 610

1999 3507 1660

2000 2294 434

2001 3531 1500

2002 3414 2000

2003 3739 1800

2004 3708 1880

2005 4200 1836

2006 2934 2000

2007 3305 2025

2008 4600 2676

Historical Service Area

Balog-Balog RIS (Existing)

Existing Service Area 12,475 haActual Irrigated 4,600 (?)Rainfed 15,815 (?)

Balog-Balog RIS

Design Service Area 34,410 ha

Target Service Areas with Balog-Balog Dam (reasonable)

Phase 1: 12,475 ha Phase 2: 21,935 ha

Phase I:

Total Area (footprint) 23,028

Built-up Area 2,069

Lahar Area 2,893

Roads/ Streets 1,059

Fish Pen/Ponds 1,283

Others (i.e. grass, scrub, etc.) 532

Area Below 17m (flooded) 89

Total Non-Irrigable 7,926

Net Irrigable Area* 15,102

Phase 2:


Built-up Area 4,253

Lahar Area 5,043


Fish Pen/Ponds 902

Others (i.e. grass, scrub, etc.) 1,944

Area Below 17m (flooded) 1,485



3/9/2016

16

Balog-Balog Dam

Drainage Area = 280 sq.kmsAverage Flow = 16.7 CMSQ80% Dep Flow = 4.7 CMSQ60% = 8 CMSQ40% = 14 CMSQ20% = 25 CMS

Issues:• Underestimated cost of dam• Undersize spillway capacity• Sedimentation allocation

(remedied with flushing gate)• Flood control function

(uncontrolled)• Water yield inadequate for entire

project area• Overestimated fisheries benefits

DAM

Type Rock fill dam

Height 105.50 m.

Crest Width 15.00 m.

Crest Length 1,429.47 m.

Crest Elevation 245.00 m.

Volume of Embankment 11.85 MCM

RESERVOIR

Area 1,230 hectares

Storage Capacity 425 MCM

Sediment Storage 50 MCM

Max. Water Surf. Elev. 238.00 m.

SPILLWAY

Capacity 3,250 cu.m./sec

Ungated 3 units, 10m X 14.90 m. Radial Gates

Balog-Balog Service over O’Donnell-

Tarlac, Talavera and Rio Chico River

Basins

Balog-Balog

Dam

Balog-Balog Elevation-Area-Storage Data

Spillway Elevation (m): 245

Min. Dam Base Elev (m): 150

Design Spillway Height (m): 95

Elevation

(m)Height (m)

Surface Area

(m2)

Res Storage

(m3)

Res Storage

(MCM)

150 0 0 0 0.000

160 10 295,882 1,479,409 1.479

170 20 874,062 7,329,130 7.329

180 30 2,010,808 21,753,482 21.753

190 40 3,789,677 50,755,907 50.756

200 50 5,500,020 97,204,390 97.204

210 60 7,693,940 163,174,191 163.174

220 70 9,828,056 250,784,174 250.784

230 80 11,964,812 359,748,513 359.749

240 90 14,386,213 491,503,637 491.504

250 100 17,107,778 648,973,593 648.974

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

Balog-Balog Elevation-Storage Curve

Reservoir Elevation-Area-Storage Curve Created

using SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission)

90m x 90m resolution data

Balog-Balog Multipurpose Dam Project (single reservoir/high-dam)

3/9/2016

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

190 200 210 220 230 240

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

S2-Middle Bulsa Elevation-Storage Curve

0

20

40

60

80

100

150 160 170 180 190 200

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

S1-Lower Bulsa Elevation-Storage Curve

0

4

8

12

16

20

280 290 300 310 320 330

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

S3-Upper Bulsa Elevation-Storage Curve

0

1

2

3

4

5

165 170 175 180 185 190

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

S5-Sula Elevation-Storage Curve

0

2

4

6

8

10

260 270 280 290 300 310

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

S4-Malilit-Aludig Elevation-Storage Curve

0

5

10

15

20

25

190 200 210 220 230 240

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

S7-Lower Boyboy Elevation-Storage Curve

0

8

16

24

32

40

240 250 260 270 280 290

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

S8-Upper Boyboy Elevation-Storage Curve

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

60 62 64 66 68 70

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

S9-Tibagan Elevation-Storage Curve

0

3

6

9

12

15

115 120 125 130 135 140

Sto

rag

e V

olu

me

(M

CM

)

Elevation (m)

S6-Bulsa-Moriones Elevation-Storage Curve

Proposed Balog-Balog Multiple Dam Project (9 reservoirs)

Comparison of BBMP and

Multiple Dam Project at

S1 location for the

following:

• Reservoir life due to

sediment deposition

• Reliability of irrigation

water delivery

• Reliability of hydropower

generation

• Economic analyses in

terms of B/C ratio, NPV

and EIRR

• Dam backwater upstream

inundated areas

• Flood control benefits to

downstream

3/9/2016

18

Watershed Modeling: To reconstruct daily

streamflow as input to the reservoir system

(using 1950-2000 historical rainfall)

Delineated into

57 subbasins

1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970Days (1950-1970)

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

Bu

lsa R

iver

Flo

ws at

Dam

sit

e (

CM

S)

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990Days (1970-1990)

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

Bu

lsa R

iver

Flo

ws at

Dam

sit

e (

CM

S)

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000Days (1990-2000)

0

250

500

750

1000

Bu

lsa R

iver

Flo

ws at

Dam

sit

e (

CM

S)

Bulsa River Daily Flows: Generated (or reconstructed) from watershed

model using historical rainfall data from 1950 to 2000 (50 years of Data)

3/9/2016

19

Reservoir Optimization-Simulation Modeling: To decide irrigation

water deliveries and hydropower releases including reservoir spill

control

• A combined optimization-simulation model is used where the

simulation model describes the water movement in the watershed,

river system and reservoir system and the optimization model uses

the COMPLEX algorithm to make decisions such as reservoir

releases subject to the objective function and physical system

constraints.

• The multi-objective function is:

tHP

tSP

ttIR

Eb

QSPp

QIRQIDpF

)0.0,max( : penalty term for irrigation demand violation

: penalty term for spills

: hydropower generation benefits

Reservoir Life Computations due to Sedimentation:

Sediment inflow used is 3500 m3/year/km2

Watershed/Reservoir Sediment m3/year/km

2

568.0 5281.0 NHRC 2014

390.0 3695.0 NHRC 2007

372.0 3225.0 NHRC 2013

283.0 2600.0 JICA 1988

365.0 13307.2 NHRC 2003

Ave (1st 3) 4067.0

Ave (4 Res) 3700.3

Drainage Area (km2)

Angat

Binga

Kaliwa

Balog-Balog

San Roque

Reservoir Life Computations

Drainage

Area

(sq.km)

Annual

Sediment

Inlows

(MCM)

Starting

Storage

(MCM)

Half-Filled

Storage

(MCM)

Years To

Half-Fill

Reservoir

Years to

100%-Fill

Reservoir

NIA Balog-Balog

Reservoir 289.31 1.013 648.97 324.49 321 641

TWEDCO Reservoirs S1 36.43 0.128 93.09 46.54 366 731

S2 48.74 0.171 46.10 23.05 136 271

S3 67.34 0.236 15.77 7.89 34 67

S4 24.65 0.086 6.98 3.49 41 81

S5 41.62 0.146 4.02 2.01 14 28

S6 10.36 0.036 11.63 5.81 161 321

S7 42.91 0.150 22.67 11.33 76 151

S8 69.23 0.242 34.42 17.21 72 143

S9 182.27 0.638 6.08 3.04 5 10

BBMP Single Dam

Multiple Dams

3/9/2016

20

Comparison of irrigation water deliveries (m3/s) of BBMP (single reservoir) and Multiple

Dam Project (with 6 reservoirs) including Lower Bulsa River natural flows at S1 location

with no sedimentation and after 50 years sedimentation.

Base Case (No Reservoir Sedimentation)

Natural BBMP MultiDam Natural BBMP MultiDam Natural BBMP MultiDam

Q90 (330/140 days)* 0.96 0.96 0.55 0.77 0.77 0.14 6.86 7.51 4.60

Q80 (290/125 days) 1.35 1.93 1.18 0.96 0.96 0.52 19.08 18.02 16.95

Q60 (220/95 days) 3.76 24.00 6.48 1.25 1.64 1.08 40.00 40.00 39.71

Q40 (145/60 days) 13.40 40.00 38.80 1.73 6.26 2.21 40.00 40.00 39.99

Q20 (70/30 days) 36.53 40.00 40.00 3.86 40.00 6.82 40.00 40.00 40.00

Qave 26.21 25.27 21.11 4.27 14.82 6.19 32.11 32.10 31.58

Integral (Q20-Q90) 14.74 25.23 21.32 2.01 13.84 2.80 31.89 31.83 31.17

12281 21027 17763 1679 11534 2337 26576 26525 25977

Year-Round Dry Season (Dec-Apr) Wet Season (May-Sep)

Area Irrigated (ha)

@1.2 m3/sec/1000 ha

After 50 years with Sedimentation

BBMP MultiDam BBMP MultiDam BBMP MultiDam

Q90 (330/140 days) 1.060 1.060 0.771 0.000 7.511 5.737

Q80 (290/125 days) 1.928 1.928 0.964 0.081 18.024 18.144

Q60 (220/95 days) 21.030 20.241 1.639 0.832 40.000 39.781

Q40 (145/60 days) 40.000 40.000 6.265 1.980 40.000 39.991

Q20 (70/30 days) 40.000 40.000 40.000 5.519 40.000 39.999

Qave 25.060 25.063 14.825 4.824 32.105 31.865

Integral (Q20-Q90) 24.654 24.496 13.841 2.230 31.830 31.536

Area Irrigated (ha) 20545 20414 11534 1859 26525 26280

Dry (Dec-Apr)Year-Round Wet (May-Sep)

Hydropower generation (in MW) at BBMP (1 hydropower plant) versus

Multiple Dam Project (5 hydropower plants located at S1, S2, S3, S4 and S5)

Note: Last row are revenues in millions of pesos.

** Hydropower generation are higher as sediment accumulate since reservoirs are

operating at higher reservoir elevations but tailhead elevations of hydropower

plants are assumed the same during construction, i.e., same with Base Case.

Hydropower Generation in MW for 10 Hrs Operations per Day

BBMP MultiDam BBMP MultiDam BBMP MultiDam

Q90 (330 days) 0.000 1.237 0.778 1.794 0.996 1.906

Q80 (290 days) 0.000 3.647 1.415 4.773 1.810 5.092

Q60 (220 days) 1.590 7.010 16.943 9.983 20.186 10.526

Q40 (145 days) 38.464 22.998 43.277 32.850 47.635 34.250

Q20 (70 days) 60.382 60.322 62.651 64.370 64.746 65.088

Qave 29.148 26.901 33.487 30.649 35.691 31.419

Integral (Q20-Q90) 26.125 24.831 31.168 28.863 33.409 29.531

GWH/Year 95.358 90.632 113.764 105.349 121.942 107.789

@ 3 pesos/kW-hour 286 272 341 316 366 323

Base Year After 25 Years** After 50 Years**

3/9/2016

21

CREST U/S D/S DAM RIVER CREST TOTAL COST

W SLOPE SLOPE TOTAL H WIDTH B L VOLUME ( pesos )(m) (1V: H) (1V: H) (m) (m) (m) (m

3)

MAIN DAM 15 2 2 115.5 80 1460 5741495

CLAY CORE 10 0.22 0.22 115.5 80 1460 2474172 873,283,661

ROCKFILL 3267323 3,117,418,459

TOTAL 5741495 3,990,702,120

NOTES:

*TOTAL DAM HEIGHT WAS BASED ON NIA-BBMP II PLANS AND SLOPE STABILITY COMPUTATIONS

*DAM CREST EL. 245.50

*HARD FOUNDATION EL. 130.00

*MAXIMUM CREST WIDTH = 15.0 M AND MINIMUM W = 6.0 m FOR CONSTRUCTION CONVENIENCE

*TOP WIDTH OF CLAY CORE = 10 m

SITE/LOCATION

NIA’s BBMP Dam Details and Costs

Balog-Balog Multiple Dam System: Details and Costs

CREST U/S D/S DAM RIVER CREST TOTAL CLAY CORE CLAY CORE ROCKFILL ROCKFILL

W SLOPE SLOPE TOTAL H WIDTH B L VOLUME VOL Amount VOL Amount

(m) (1V: H) (1V: H) (m) (m) (m) (m3) (m3) ( P ) (m3) ( P )

S1 LOWER BULSA 10 2 2 47 40 392 799,616.63 204,230.68 72,085,260.81 595,385.95 568,069,642.61

S2 MIDDLE BULSA 10 2 2 45 280 732 1,971,900.00 504,360.00 178,018,905.60 1,467,540.00 1,400,209,264.80

S3 UPPER BULSA 10 2 2 45 70 432 885,150.00 226,935.00 80,098,977.60 658,215.00 628,016,095.80

S4 MALILIT-ALUDIG 10 2 2 45 40 365 691,875.00 177,525.00 62,659,224.00 514,350.00 490,751,622.00

S5 SULA 6 2 2 20 40 218 94,946.67 27,606.67 9,744,050.24 67,340.00 64,250,440.80

S6 BULSA-MORIONES 7 2 2 25 200 510 441,291.66 121,416.66 42,855,224.31 319,875.00 305,199,135.00

S7 LOWER BOYBOY 9 2 2 35 60 279 379,242.50 99,260.00 35,034,809.60 279,982.50 267,136,902.90

S8 UPPER BOYBOY 10 2 2 40 160 547 1,066,200.00 273,620.00 96,576,915.20 792,580.00 756,216,429.60

S9 TIBAGAN 6 2 2 13 40 98 25,436.67 7,704.67 2,719,440.32 17,732.00 16,918,455.84

TOTAL 6,355,659.13 1,642,658.68 579,792,807.69 4,713,000.45 4,496,767,989.35

TOTAL COST 5,076,560,797.05

NOTES:

*TOTAL DAM HEIGHT INCLUDES 2.0 m FREEBOARD + 3.0 m ASSUMED DEPTH OF HARD FOUNDATION

*MINIMUM CREST WIDTH W = 6.0 m FOR CONSTRUCTION CONVENIENCE

*TOP WIDTH OF CLAY CORE = 3 m

*UNIT COST INCLUDES COST OF MATERIAL, EQUIPMENT, LABOR, + VAT + 25% INDIRECT COST (Profit, Miscelaneous, Contingencies)

* EQUIPMENT COST BASED ON ACEL RATE LATEST EDITION 24( Includes cost of operator, fuel and oil, lubrication, spare parts)

* CLAY CORE UNIT COST=P352.96 per m3

* ROCKFILL UNIT COST = 954.12 per m3

SITE/LOCATION

Estimates of B/C ratio, Net present values and IRR for BBMP and Multiple Dam

Project for base case and after 25 years & after 50 years with sedimentation.

(Irrigation benefits for rice, sugarcane, corn, potato, eggplant, tomato, string

beans, ampalaya, etc but excludes hydropower)

Observation: Results indicate higher B/C ratios, NPV and IRR for all

BBMP single dam cases excluding hydropower component

Indicator

Base CaseBase plus 20%

higher investment &

20% less irrigation

benefits

Case with 25 years

with sedimentation

Case with 50 years

with sedimentation

Multiple

Dam ProjBBMP

Multiple

Dam ProjBBMP

Multiple

Dam ProjBBMP

Multiple

Dam ProjBBMP

B/C ratio 1.67 2.77 1.12 1.84 1.19 2.73 1.16 2.71

NPV @ 15%

(Mn Pesos)2,972 6,128 612 3,514 819 5,991 703 5,921

EIRR (%) 20 27 16 21 17 27 16 27

3/9/2016

22

Flood Frequency of Uncontrolled Flows at Location S9:

NIA’s BBMP versus BB multiple dam system

Clearly NIA’s BBMP has lower flood magnitudes compared to those of

BB multiple dam scheme.

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000Annual Maxima Daily Flow (CMS)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Em

pir

ical C

um

ula

tive D

istr

ibu

tio

n

NIA BBMP Base Case

TWEDCO 25-yr Sed

TWEDCO Base Case

TWEDCO 50-yr Sed

NIA BBMP 25-yr Sed

NIA BBMP 50-yr Sed

Natural

Multi-Dam 25-yr Sed

Multi-Dam Base Case

Multi-Dam 50-yr Sed

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000Annual Maxima Daily Flow (CMS)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Em

pir

ical C

um

ula

tive D

istr

ibu

tio

n

NIA BBMP Base Case

TWEDCO 25-yr Sed

TWEDCO Base Case

TWEDCO 50-yr Sed

NIA BBMP 25-yr Sed

NIA BBMP 50-yr Sed

Natural

Multi-Dam 25-yr Sed

Multi-Dam Base Case

Multi-Dam 50-yr Sed

Communities and Household Affected

by Dam Backwater Upstream Inundation

NIA BBMP Reservoir Town_City Est_Houses

* San_Jose 238

* Capas 92

Total Houses

Affected330

BBMP Single Dam

TWEDCO Reservoirs Town_City Est_Houses

S1 San_Jose 78

S2 San_Jose 134

S3 San_Jose 20

S4 San_Jose 4

S5 San_Jose 6

S6 San_Jose 12

S7 San_Jose 4

S7 Capas 40

S8 Capas 142

S9 San_Jose 48

Total Houses

Affected488

Multiple Dam Proj

3/9/2016

23

Flood inundated

areas with sustained

flows of 3 hours.

(a) without a reservoir (b) with BBMP single dam (c) with multiple dams

Flood inundated

areas with sustained

flows of 5 hours.

Flood Control Benefits

to Downstream Cities

MultiDam-3Hrs

MultiDam-5Hrs

ScenarioDischarge

(m3/s)

Time

Sustained

(hr)

Total Flood

Volume (m3)

Total

Flooded

Area (ha)

Flood Water

Level (m)

Average

Flood Depth

(m)

Natural-3Hrs 3650 3 39.420 120.265 39.947 3.278

BBMP-3Hrs 1980 3 21.384 96.073 38.308 2.226

TWEDCO-3Hrs 3200 3 34.560 120.265 39.543 2.874

Natural-5Hrs 3650 5 65.700 157.934 41.735 4.160

BBMP-5Hrs 1980 5 35.640 120.265 39.633 2.963

TWEDCO-5Hrs 3200 5 57.600 157.934 41.222 3.647

MultiDam-3Hrs

MultiDam-5Hrs

Validation of Balog-Balog

Irrigation Service Area

Design Service Area: 34,410 ha

Phase 1: 12,475 ha

Phase 2: 21,935 ha

Estimated in this Study: 38,180 ha

Phase 1: 15,102 ha

Phase 2: 23,078 ha

Phase I:


Built-up Area 2,069

Lahar Area 2,893


Fish Pen/Ponds 1,283

Others (i.e. grass, scrub, etc.) 532

Area Below 17m (flooded) 89



Phase 2:


Built-up Area 4,253

Lahar Area 5,043


Fish Pen/Ponds 902

Others (i.e. grass, scrub, etc.) 1,944

Area Below 17m (flooded) 1,485



3/9/2016

24

Balog-Balog Service over O’Donnell-

Tarlac, Talavera and Rio Chico River

Basins

Balog-Balog

Dam

Alternative Water

Source for Balog-

Balog Irrigation

System

This is especially

the case during

dry season since

Balog-balog

reservoir water is

not enough!

• Rio Chico River

• Talavera River

Watershed Divides within Irrigation Projects

3/9/2016

25

Last slide!

3/9/2016 - nast

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