60 Years of Successful Scientific Collaboration on 60 Years of Successful Scientific Collaboration on Weather, Climate and Water:  Weather, Climate and Water: 

World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization

SAON Workshop for Government Agency Officials, Miami, USAMarch 18-19, 2010

David GrimesCo-chair, WMO EC Polar Observations, Research and

Services,WMO Representative, SAON Steering Committee

Assistant-Deputy Minister, Meteorological Service of Canada

Lets begin with the Context…

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World Meteorological Organization World Meteorological Organization (WMO)(WMO)

• WMO is UN Specialized Agency– Coordinates collective Member contributions in

weather, water and climate– 189 States & Territories signatory to its Convention– Established in 1950, earlier roots from 1873 (IMO)– Annual Secretariat Operating budget ~ $70M CH– International cooperation has been its hallmark– Sponsored all International Polar Years

• Services anchor its work and are based more and more on our understanding of the earth’s environmental system

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Understanding

Models

Predictions

ConsequencesValidation

Assimilation Initialization

Monitoring

Analysis

Observations

The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in understanding,

prediction,and application.

Monitoring is Central to the WMO Monitoring is Central to the WMO MissionMission

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World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization

Achievements over the past 60 years have only been made possible because WMO has:

• Effective governance & structures that engage Members

• Unique framework for exchange of weather, climate and hydrological information across borders

• System of standardized observational networks• Free & unrestricted exchange of data and products• Capability to deliver real-time information and services

to meet specific societal needs. • Successful in organizing international cooperation to

gather observations, conduct scientific research, extend atmospheric predictability and satisfy users’ demands

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WMO Priorities

• Results-based Strategic and Operational Planning framework that coordinates efforts of Members, and enables & enhances their capabilities and performance by…– Improving weather, water and climate services in support of

life and property, safe transportation, environment and economic development (including in polar regions)

– Informing and supporting disaster mitigation and risk reduction strategies

– Implementing new WMO Integrated Global Observing System and WMO Information System

– Enhancing our understanding and predictability of the earth system related to weather, climate and hydrology (including in polar regions)

– Implementing global framework for climate services (climate monitoring, predictions and services) to support adaptation to climate variability and change

– Building capacity especially within least developed countries– Fostering effective collaboration among international

organizations (including in polar regions)

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WMO Structures and Co-sponsored Programmes with Arctic Interests

• Regions: Asia (II), North America, Central America and the Caribbean (IV), Europe (VI)

• Panel: Executive Committee Expert Panel on Polar Observations, Research and Services

• Scientific and Technical Commissions for: – Basic Systems (CBS)– Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO)– Hydrology (CHy) – Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) – Climatology (CCl) – Joint WMO-IOC Commission for Oceanography and Marine

Meteorology (JCOMM)

• Co-sponsored Programmes:– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) – Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) – Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)

And now the Opportunities…

A Monitoring Perspective

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Coordinated System of Arctic Observing Networks - Weather

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Coordinated System of Arctic Observing Networks - Climate

11A Basis for Integrated Environmental Monitoring A Basis for Integrated Environmental Monitoring (Supersites)(Supersites)

Coordinated System of Arctic Observing Networks - Global Atmospheric Watch/International Arctic Systems for

Observing the Atmosphere

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Coordinated System for Arctic Observing Networks – Earth Observation Satellites

And now the Opportunities…

A Science Perspective

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A Seamless “Earth” Prediction Framework

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Threats AssessmentsAssessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

PredictionPrediction

ApplicationsApplications

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Initial Initial ConditionsConditions

Boundary Boundary ConditionsConditions

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Weeks2 Weeks

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

WeatherWeather

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability

ScenariosScenarios

Anthropogenic Anthropogenic ForcingForcing

Climate ChangeClimate Change. .

DecadesDecades

CenturiesCenturies

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Mid-1970s

Atmosphere

Mid-1980s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Early 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

Late 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Present Day

Atmosphere

Land Surface

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SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

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Carbon Cycle

DynamicVegetation

AtmosphericChemistry

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ClimateVariability

Overview of Weather and Climate Prediction Modelsand the Required Observations

Need an Integrated Need an Integrated Global Observing Global Observing

System Going Beyond System Going Beyond the World Weather the World Weather

Watch (WWW)Watch (WWW)

And now the Opportunities…

An Information Management Perspective

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WIGOS VISION

• WIGOS will establish an integrated, comprehensive and coordinated observing system to satisfy in a cost-effective and sustained manner the evolving observing requirements of WMO Members and will enhance coordination of WMO observing systems with those of partner organizations for the benefit of society

…………. System of Systems approach. System of Systems approach

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Goals of WMO Information System (WIS)

• GTS needs to be open to all WMO activities to provide operational critical and time critical information exchange

• Internet should be a part of WIS to allow support of less critical or high volume requirements 1

• The continuous improvement and adaptation of new technologies in the GTS should be maintained.

• The WIS should be open to more than just WMO programs allowing partners to participate

• Need seamless discovery, access and retrieval (DAR) across all WMO systems, including collaborators and partners.

1 e.g. GTS ~8GB per day compared with TIGGE ~200GB per day

And now a Way Forward…

WMO Putting an emphasis on the Poles

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WMO Executive Council Panel of Experts on

Polar Observations Research and Services

• Recommended by WMO Congress XV – 2007 – Focus on integrating programs in polar regions– Program coordination for Antarctica– Implementation strategy for Global Cryosphere Watch– Need was re-enforced by International Polar Year

• Established by Executive Council in 2008 – David Grimes (Canada) and Greg Ayers (Australia)

nominated as co-chairs– WMO Members (18) nominated 24 experts to participate

• EC-PORS is contact within WMO for SAON

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EC-PORS Mandate& Challenges

• Broad Scope – – Value-added chain from Acquisition, Exchange, Products &

Services– weather, climate, water, oceans

– user requirements, technologies, standards– observation gaps (e.g., polar oceans, snow cover)– configuration / interoperability with other polar observing

networks– WIS/WIGOS compliance– Sustainability– GCW

• Remote and hostileenvironments

• Operational andfinancial challenges

• Varied and complexorganizational structures

ECScience Dept’s & Agencies

INAC

DFAIT

Ad-hoc DMArctic Cmtee

NorthernStrategy

ArcticCouncil

IPY

IPYCanada

FederalDept’s & Agencies ADM

Northern S&T

ADM S&TIntegration

Board IPY ADM

Cmtee

SAO & Delegation

Coordinationfor AC

activitiesSAON

WMOPermanent

Rep

WMOICSU(International Council

for Sciences)

SAONCanada

ACPrograms

Int’lScienceGroups

IASC(International ArcticScience Committee)

EC-PORS(Ex. Council on

Polar Observations, Research and

Services)

Organizational Framework forArctic Observing in Canada (DRAFT)

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EC-PORS Priorities

• “Services” are the driver that anchors the Panel’s work – Polar NWP, GMDSS, Polar Climate Outlook Forums

(PCOF) • Polar Prediction System – a framework for moving forward

– WCRP Workshop, “Polar Climate Predictability” – CAS Workshop on Polar Prediction– Supporting a Polar Climate Outlook Forum

• Implementation of Global Cryosphere Watch• Essential nature of remote sensing / Space assets

– Polar Communication and Weather Satellite Mission – refine the charge to the IPY Space Task Group (STG)

• Supersites - promote notion of integrated monitoring and linkage with WMO Integrated Global Observing System

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Polar Prediction System: a unifying focus

• There is a need for an immediate, high-level and sustained focus on polar prediction services (PPS)

• PPS would involve the Earth System approach, from daily to seasonal to decadal and longer timescales, and must include the human dimension

• PPS would stimulate integration of observations to enhance prediction systems

• PPS would provide forecasts, predictions and projections to governments for adaptation, providing a synergy with the outcomes of WCC-3 and the Global Framework for Climate Services

• A polar prediction system will draw and coordinate many research and operational elements of WMO and related agencies, of national modeling centers and of other polar science organizations into common purpose.

A polar prediction system could represent the central motivating idea of an International Polar Decade.

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International Polar Decade

• Define the scientific basis of an IPD• Concept and structure IPD workshop (Feb 2011)• Relevant Organizations to engage• Engagement strategy• Outcomes to consider at WMO Congress XVI

2011• Task team would be established for this activity

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The Arctic provides great challenges for observation, research and provision of services. WMO (and SAON) need to meet the challenge – partnership and collaboration are essential.