853d electronic group 853d electronic systems group briefer : date: air traffic analysis at beale...

853d Electronic 853d Electronic Systems Group Group

Briefer:Briefer:

Date:Date:

Air Traffic Analysis at Beale AFB Air Traffic Analysis at Beale AFB Supporting Global Hawk Supporting Global Hawk

OperationsOperations

Paul Ostwald, CAASD & Bill Hershey, 853rd ELSG/NT

(MITRE)With Tee Mans, ACC/A8US

26 April 2007

Document Number Here© 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.Slide 2

ContentsContents

• Background• Purpose of this briefing• Beale Air Force Base area and airspace• What does radar data show? • Overview of the 5-day traffic analysis• Radar sites represented in the traffic data• Analysis of transponding traffic (84th RADES data)• Analysis of non-transponding tracks (84th RADES data)• Analysis of stakeholders (ETMS data)• Summary of Findings• Potential application to other situations


BackgroundBackground

• USAF planned to stand-up Global Hawk (GH) training operations at Beale AFB, CA - Nov 2006

• FAA approval was needed

• GH program had little quantitative data on traffic surrounding Beale AFB

• In June 2006, GH program requested 853 ELSG/NT support for a traffic analysis


Purpose of this BriefingPurpose of this Briefing

• Provide insight into air traffic around Beale AFB:– Traffic characteristics (hourly and day-of-week variability)– Characterization of non-transponding radar returns– Stakeholder and origin/destination counts

• Document: – Potential data sources and selection of the most useful– Data filtering and processing– Types of results achievable using available data sources

• For potential future application to:– Other locations where Global Hawk could be based– Other programs, e.g., Predator– Special situations, e.g., specific Global Hawk flights


Beale Area Airspace & Airspace Subject Beale Area Airspace & Airspace Subject to a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR)to a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR)

Sacramento (SMF)

Beale AFB

(BAB)

TFR

10 nmi radiusClass C

Airspace

Note man

y nearby

small airports

Note many

nearby small

airports

Class E

18,000 ft MSL

4,100 ft MSL

Beale AFB

Ground

Class A(All aircraft fly IFR)

Class ETFR10,000 ft MSL

2,600 ft MSL Class CClass C

Class E

18,000 ft MSL

4,100 ft MSL

Beale AFB

Ground

Class A(All aircraft fly IFR)

Class ETFR10,000 ft MSL

2,600 ft MSL Class CClass C

Mode C (altitude reporting) required

above 10,000’ and in “Mode C Veil” above

Class C airspace


Initial Plan for Global Hawk Training Initial Plan for Global Hawk Training Missions at Beale AFBMissions at Beale AFB

38.6

38.8

39.0

39.2

39.4

39.6

39.8

40.0

40.2

-122

.0

-121

.8

-121

.6

-121

.4

-121

.2

-121

.0

-120

.8

MOA

Airports

ObstructionsRunways

20 nmi radius10 nmi

radius

GH Path

• Global Hawk training missions would begin and end at Beale AFB, at the center of the 10 nmi radius TFR.

• GH climbs to over 50,000 ft and executes several loops over a military operations area (MOA).

• GH descends to TFR and stays within the TFR on its approach by executing a “bow-tie” pattern.

TFR

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120Time (minutes)

Altitude (Feet)

Longitude

Latitude


What Does Radar Data Show?What Does Radar Data Show?

• Transponding Traffic– Using a beacon transponder that transmits ID & altitude– Transponder is generally required in:

• Class E airspace (portion above 10,000 feet)• Class C airspace (directly above an airfield)• “Mode C veil” (above Class C and below 10,000 feet)

– Types of transponding traffic• Discrete: squawking an assigned beacon code• VFR (Visual Flight Rules): squawking “1200” beacon code• Mixed: discrete or VFR during different portions of the flight

• Non-transponding Traffic– Not using a beacon transponder– Generates search-only returns when seen by primary radar– Not all search-only tracks are real traffic

• e.g, birds, obstructions, and other “noise”

– Not all radars can measure altitude for search-only tracks


Overview of 5-day Traffic AnalysisOverview of 5-day Traffic Analysis

Data

Analyses

Transponding and non-transponding radar returns

84th Radar Evaluation Squadron (RADES) at Hill AFB, Utah

1. Day-of-week pattern (5 days)

2. Time-of-day pattern (Hourly)

3. Altitudes (3 ranges):

18,000’

10,000’

4,100’

Ground

Transponding aircraftFAA Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS)

1. Stakeholders(6 ways):

General Aviation

Air Carrier

Jets Turboprops Props

2. Air carriers distribution

3. Airports (origins and destinations)

4. Identification of potential non-transponding traffic

May 15 – 19, 2006 (Monday – Friday)Period

Filter to 10 nmi cylinder; show:Filter to 20 nmi cylinder; show:


Radar Sites Near Beale AFBRadar Sites Near Beale AFB

• SCK (Stockton)

• BAB (Beale AFB)• MCC (McClellan/

Sacramento)

• RBL (Red Bluff)• MIL (Mill Valley)• RBR (Rainbow Ridge)

Yes

No

5 others had small amount of data:FLX, KFL, PSR, RNO, & VAN

Long-Range Radar Sites

Short-Range Radar Sites

Data Archived in

RADES?

34.5

35.5

36.5

37.5

38.5

39.5

40.5

41.5

42.5

-124.5 -123.5 -122.5 -121.5 -120.5 -119.5 -118.5

RBL

KFL

RBR

MIL SCK

RNO

FLX

PSR

MCC

BAB

VAN

10 nmi radius

BAB = Beale AFB

Longitude

20 nmi radius

Latitude


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0000

0100

0200

0300

0400

0500

0600

0700

0800

0900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

Hour (local time)

Ho

url

y C

ou

nt

Results: Transponding Traffic PatternsResults: Transponding Traffic Patterns Day-of-Week and Time-of-Day (84th RADES data) Day-of-Week and Time-of-Day (84th RADES data)

Busy most days0800-1000

Light traffic2200-0800

SlightlyLighter

1000-1300

A Little Busier1300-1800

Breakdown by Hour for All Five Days

• Thursday is busiest: 278 tracks

• Monday is least busy: 201 tracks

• However, one week of data is not a reliable predictor of a regular day-of-week pattern.

One day busy for one hour

Daily Traffic Counts

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

15th

(Mon

)

16th

(Tue

)

17th

(Wed

)

18th

(Thu

)

19th

(Fri)


740117 122 111 24

55 1 2

67 5 2

Results: Transponding Traffic Breakdown Results: Transponding Traffic Breakdown Mode C AltitudeMode C Altitude

Within 10 nmi Radius Cylinder, Surface to 18,000’Within 10 nmi Radius Cylinder, Surface to 18,000’

18,000 ft

10,000 ft

4100 ft

SurfaceTrack climbs or descends within altitude range shownTrack stays within

altitude range shown

Discre

te -

long

Discre

te -

shor

t

Mixe

d dis

cret

e & V

FR

VFR - lon

g

VFR - sh

ort

Total Track Counts – Surface to 18,000 ft(1114)7%

0 0

0 0

7%

0 0

6%Few VFR

above 10,000 ft

Long track: >=10 radar returns/trackShort track: <10 radar returns/track

66% 11% 11% 10% 2%

Most “short” tracks are

below 4100 ft

91 20 7 10

70 2 6

262 115 37 28 22

1941 58 66 1

29%

42%

11%


• Objectives:– Reject tracks unlikely to be aircraft– Highlight non-transponding traffic close to TFR boundary

• Analysis process (successive filtering steps):– Used the 15-19 May 2006 sample from 84th RADES – Selected predominantly tracks from search-only radar returns– Selected tracks coming within a 20 nmi radius of Beale AFB– Identified “good” tracks likely to represent real aircraft, i.e.,

• At least 10 radar returns (about two minutes)• Visual examination of path for speed, altitude, linearity, etc.

– Of the good tracks, identified those close to Class C airspace and proposed TFR boundary, i.e., just outside a 10 nmi radius• These represent potential conflicts with Global Hawk

Analysis of Non-Transponding TracksAnalysis of Non-Transponding Tracks (84th RADES Data)(84th RADES Data)


Results: Non-Transponding Tracks Results: Non-Transponding Tracks (84(84thth RADES data) RADES data)

• Many/most 84th RADES non-transponding tracks do NOT appear to be actual aircraft, due to characteristics such as:– Very short duration

– Very long duration, largely stationary

– Largely stationary at or near a known obstacle

– Many with height (as determined by the radar) above 10,000’

• In 5 days of data, less than 30 “reasonable” tracks were identified that were likely to be real, non-transponding aircraft (see three examples, following slide)

• Unable to verify any non-transponding aircraft entered the airspace reserved for transponder-equipped aircraft due to lack of altitude data, but some flew very close laterally.

• Other anomalies were also observed, possibly due to data filtering by 84th RADES.


38.6

38.7

38.8

38.9

39

39.1

39.2

39.3

39.4

39.5

39.6

-122

-121

.9

-121

.8

-121

.7

-121

.6

-121

.5

-121

.4

-121

.3

-121

.2

-121

.1

-121

-120

.9

38.6

38.7

38.8

38.9

39

39.1

39.2

39.3

39.4

39.5

39.6

-122

-121

.9

-121

.8

-121

.7

-121

.6

-121

.5

-121

.4

-121

.3

-121

.2

-121

.1

-121

-120

.9

38.6

38.7

38.8

38.9

39

39.1

39.2

39.3

39.4

39.5

39.6

-122

-121

.9

-121

.8

-121

.7

-121

.6

-121

.5

-121

.4

-121

.3

-121

.2

-121

.1

-121

-120

.9

RADES Tracks that are Likely RADES Tracks that are Likely Non-Transponding AircraftNon-Transponding Aircraft

• Fewer than 30 tracks were identified as potentially “good” non-transponding aircraft

– Red Bluff radar (RBL) - 10 tracks– Mill Valley radar (MIL) - 6 tracks– Rainbow Ridge radar (RBR) - 6 tracks

Track 12124 (seen by

RBL radar)


MIL & RBL radars)


MIL & RBL radars)

Note proximity to proposed

TFR

Search-only track

Obstruction

Airports

Outer Ring: 20 nmi radius Inner Ring: 10 nmi radius TFR (Temporary Flight Restriction)

• Only three tracks in common (seen by two radars, i.e., RBL and MIL (see example plots)

• Unique tracks (seen by one radar only)– 7 of 10 from RBL (see example plot)

– 3 of 6 from MIL

– All 6 from RBR


Observations on 84Observations on 84th th RADES Tracks that RADES Tracks that are Not Likely to be Aircraftare Not Likely to be Aircraft

• Most search-only tracks are not aircraft • Examined all search-only tracks within 10 nmi radius of Beale

AFB, here shown as hourly counts over the five days of data:

15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19 MayHour

TrackCount

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21

• No clear pattern from day-to-day• No clear pattern within each day• Counts include many very short tracks• Peaks and lulls can occur any time of day• Peak of over 70 per hour


Analysis of Stakeholders Analysis of Stakeholders (Enhanced Traffic Management System Data)(Enhanced Traffic Management System Data)

• Objective: Determine characteristics of other airspace users near Beale.– Aircraft type– Air carrier breakdown– Origin and destination airports

• ETMS data came from the CAASD Repository System– Same five day period (15-19 May 2006) as the 84th RADES data– Aircraft transmitting a discrete beacon code for part or all of the track– Contains aircraft ID, type, origin and destination airports – Tracks from FAA’s Oakland Center (ZOA) and Northern CA TRACON– Does not include military or most VFR traffic (with 1200 beacon codes)– Data frequency is one position per minute, less often than 84th RADES data

• Analysis process– Selected all tracks that were

• within a 10 nmi radius cylinder centered on Beale AFB• below 18,000’

– Analyzed and plotted data in Excel


232 36 36 15

1 16 41 136

Breakdown of Transponding AircraftBreakdown of Transponding Aircraft15-19 May 2006 – ETMS Data15-19 May 2006 – ETMS Data

No Flight Plan (AC type, departure and arrival airport information

not available)

General Aviation

Air Carrier(see following slide

for company breakdown)

PropTurbo Prop Jet Total

319(62%)

194(38%)

513 Total flights

in Discrete and Mixed

CategoriesDoes not include military aircraft or aircraft under VFR transponding with 1200 code.

45% 7% 7% 3%

0% 3% 8% 27%


Breakdown by Air CarrierBreakdown by Air Carrier

Day (GMT)Carrier Carrier name Type 15 16 17 18 19 20 TotalSWA SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO. Jet 7 10 11 12 10 7 57ASA ALASKA AIRLINES INC. Jet 4 8 8 9 9 5 43QXE HORIZON AIRLINES, INC. Turboprop 2 3 3 3 2 1 14BXR REDDING AERO ENTERPRISES, INC. Prop 3 3 2 3 2 13AMF AMERIFLIGHT, INC. Turboprop 2 4 1 3 1 11MRA MARTINAIRE Turboprop 2 3 2 2 1 10QXE HORIZON AIRLINES, INC. Jet 1 3 1 1 1 7UAL UNITED AIR LINES INC. Jet 2 2 1 1 6EJA EXECUTIVE JET AVIATION, INC. Jet 1 2 2 5Others 2 6 4 7 6 3 28Total 16 40 39 39 39 21 194

Southwest and Alaska have the largest number of flights transiting the 10 nmi radius cylinder


Breakdown by Departure and Arrival Breakdown by Departure and Arrival Operations at Nearby AirportsOperations at Nearby Airports

Departure Airport

Distance from Beale

AFBGeneral Aviation

Air Carrier Total

BAB 0.0 1 0 1 MYV 7.0 6 1 7 LHM 14.8 7 0 7 AUN 20.7 2 0 2 OVE 23.9 2 0 2 SMF 28.7 0 7 7 MCC 29.5 3 3 6 E36 31.0 1 0 1 O61 35.9 1 0 1 O41 36.0 1 0 1 MHR 37.2 4 13 17 SAC 39.3 0 2 2 CIC 46.2 3 9 12 APC 71.2 1 0 1 O05 72.6 1 0 1 CPU 73.2 1 0 1 RBL 75.0 0 1 1 STS 78.0 0 1 1 CCR 78.2 3 0 3 SCK 78.6 2 0 2 LVK 92.6 1 0 1 RDD 95.7 5 10 15 OAK 96.9 0 1 1

Arrival Airport

Distance from Beale

AFBGeneral Aviation

Air Carrier Total

BAB 0.0 1 0 1 MYV 7.0 4 1 5 LHM 14.8 7 0 7 OVE 23.9 2 0 2 O08 27.3 1 0 1 SMF 28.7 3 127 130 MCC 29.5 4 4 8 MHR 37.2 11 14 25 SAC 39.3 4 4 8 WLW 44.9 1 0 1 CIC 46.2 3 2 5 O70 57.1 1 0 1 RBL 75.0 3 3 STS 78.0 1 0 1 SCK 78.6 2 0 2 RNO 84.2 1 1 LVK 92.6 1 1 2 RDD 95.7 6 13 19 OAK 96.9 1 0 1 MOD 97.8 2 0 2

Highlights are >= 5

Air Carrier Arrivals to Sacramento Intl

are by far the largest


Summary of FindingsSummary of Findings8484thth RADES Data RADES Data

• Transponding Traffic– Day-of-week

• Some variation seen, mid-week busier, all days with over 200 tracks• 5 days (Monday – Friday) limited sample – not a reliable indicator

– Time-of-day• “Off hours” of 1900 – 0800 not too busy (under 10 tracks per hour) • Morning (0800 – 1100) consistently busy (all hours with over 10 tracks)• Other hours (1100 – 1900) slightly less busy overall (mostly 10 – 20 tracks)• Afternoon spikes of very busy 1 – 2 hour periods occur (30 tracks)

– Altitude• Discrete beacon traffic distributed across all altitudes (surface to 18,000’)• Many aircraft are transitioning altitudes• Non-discrete (VFR traffic) are mostly below 10,000’• Short tracks (less than 10 returns) are almost exclusively below 4100’

• Non-transponding traffic– Many/most non-transponding tracks do NOT appear to be actual aircraft– A small number (less than 5 per day) do appear to be aircraft tracks – Further analysis might identify some additional non-transponding tracks


Summary of FindingsSummary of FindingsStakeholder Analysis Stakeholder Analysis

(ETMS Transponding Traffic) (ETMS Transponding Traffic)

• Air Carrier Flights– About 200 air carrier flights were found

– Southwest Airlines and Alaska Airlines were the “top two”

– Air carriers are mostly jets

– About 2/3 of air carrier flights were arrival operations to Sacramento (SMF)

• General Aviation (GA) Flights– About 300 GA flights were found – many in Northern California

TRACON – possible VFRs receiving flight-following service

– GA included some jets but comprised mostly prop and turboprop aircraft

– GA operations included both departures and arrivals from several nearby airports


Potential Application to Other Potential Application to Other SituationsSituations

• Details of the process (computer programs, data structures, and analysis steps) are being documented for easy replication

• Similar analyses could be applied to:– Other locations where Global Hawk could be based– Analysis of specific flights – Other programs (e.g., Predator)


Back-up SlidesBack-up Slides

• Global Hawk characteristics• Comparison of radar data sources• “Search-only” radar data observations for Red

Bluff, Mill Valley, and Rainbow Ridge radar sites


Global Hawk CharacteristicsGlobal Hawk Characteristics

• Global Hawk is an Air Force unmanned air vehicle (UAV), which is used for surveillance.

• Wingspan - 116 feet / Length - 44 feet• Can range as far as 12,000 nautical

miles, at altitudes up to 65,000 feet (19,812 meters), flying at speeds approaching 340 knots (about 400 mph) for as long as 35 hours.

Source: http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=175

• Once mission parameters are programmed into Global Hawk, the UAV can autonomously taxi, take off, fly, remain on station capturing imagery, return and land.

• Ground-based operators monitor UAV health and status, and can change navigation and sensor plans during flight as necessary.

• During a typical mission, the aircraft can fly 1,200 miles to an area of interest and remain on station for 24 hours.


Comparison of Radar Data SourcesComparison of Radar Data Sources

RADES ETMS “Offload Extractor”

Archive location

84th RADES, Hill AFB, UT

MITRE/CAASD, McLean, VA

FAA ATALAB,Herndon, VA

Availability By request, may take several weeks

Via query, minutes to several hours

Via internet, tens of minutes to one day

Contents Radar data, from many FAA & Military radars

Most transponding flights as tracked by ATC

Similar to ETMS + military + many VFR

Value added

Filtering, post-processing “tracker”

Flight Plan (FP) data associated with tracks

FP associated with tracks

Advantages Data on both transponding & non-transponding flights

FP data presentNCT presentEasy & quick to get“High quality” tracks

Similar to ETMSMore complete than ETMS (+military +VFR)

Limitations Not all radars in archiveLow altitude coverageQuestionable tracks on search data (non-transponding)

No militaryNo VFRNot all ATC facilitiesNo non-transponding

Duplicate tracks of VFRs, UNKsNo non-transponding

Selected for this analysis


RBL (Red Bluff) Search-Only Radar Data RBL (Red Bluff) Search-Only Radar Data ObservationsObservations

• Note large number of search returns south of arc from SW to NE that passes just south of Beale Runway

– Appears to be some kind a filter or mask applied to the radar data

– Many questionable tracks computed with data south of this arc!

• RBL radar does not measure height of search, only position of returns

ALL Search-Only Returns for RBL Radar

Search-only track

Obstruction

Airport, Runway


MIL (Mill Valley) Search-Only Radar MIL (Mill Valley) Search-Only Radar Data ObservationsData Observations

• Higher density of search returns towards the East and Southeast

– But no distinct line or arc as in RBL data

– Overall density is close to that for RBL “above the arc”

• Majority of tracks <= 10 returns• MIL radar does measure height

– All “good” search-only tracks have reasonable height data

• Height data present for almost every search return in “good tracks”

• Majority are between 6000’ and 10,000’

All Filtered Search-Only Tracks (>10 Search

Returns & Inside 10-20 nmi Radius Ring)

All Search-Only Returns

Search-only track

Obstruction

Airport, Runway

Outer Ring: 20 nmi radius Inner Ring: 10 nmi radius TFR (Temporary Flight Restriction)


RBR (Rainbow Ridge) Search-Only RBR (Rainbow Ridge) Search-Only Radar Data ObservationsRadar Data Observations

• Data predominantly west of Beale (radar furthest west)

– But some south along heading of BAB runway

– Density to west similar to density for MIL radar

– But no distinct line or arc as in RBL data

• RBR radar does measure height– All “good tracks” have height data

• Height data present for almost every search return

• But most returns were above 14,000’

• Six “good” search tracks identified– “Good” based on visual path– Height questionable– None were tracked by either of the

other radars!• Should have been seen by the other

radars at that height if they were actual flights

All Filtered Tracks (>10 Search Returns

& Inside 10-20 nmi Radius Ring)

All Search-Only Returns

853d electronic group 853d electronic systems group briefer : date: air traffic analysis at beale...

Documents

traffic analysis slide

radar data

document number

mitre corporation

air traffic analysis

week of data

class c airspace slide

traffic characteristics