a european perspective on sustainability

1 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook

EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment

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Professor Jacqueline McGladeExecutive Director, European Environment Agency

Reykjavik, Iceland19 November 2005

A European perspective on sustainabilityA European perspective on sustainability



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SOER 2005SOER 2005

- Country Perspectives:

• Greenhouse gas emissions• Energy consumption• Renewable electricity• Emissions of acidifying substances• Emission of ozone precursors• Freight transport demand• Area under organic farming• Municipal waste• Use of freshwater resources



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The European Environment Outlook The European Environment Outlook conceptconcept

• Exploring sustainability of baseline projections (2020-2030), alternative scenarios and variants (up to 2100).

• Highlight the interactions between and implications of sectoral developments and environmental issues. Link to past and ongoing Commission exercises when appropriate.

• Provide a coherent quantitative assessment as feasible, supplemented by qualitative analyses where needed.

• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.



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The Analytical FrameworkThe Analytical Framework• Outlooks developed for various environmental themes

• GHG emissions and climate change• Air quality (CAFE)• Water stress• Water quality

• Key driving forces (socio/technico/economic, DG TREN)• Demography• Economy activity• Technological and sectoral developments• Consumption patterns• Energy and transport• Agriculture• Waste and material flows

Common set of assumptions for driving forces to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis



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Integrated quantitative assessmentIntegrated quantitative assessment

Water stress and water quality outlooks

Models WaterGAP (water use and availability), A model on nutrients from UWWT plants

Agriculture outlooks

Models CAPSIM (sectoral model)

Climate change and air pollution outlooks

Models PRIMES (energy & transport) POLES (energy & transport) TIMER/FAIR (GHGs emissions) RAINS (air pollution) IMAGE (climate change) Euromove (ecosystem composition)

Waste and material flows outlooks

Models A macro-econometric waste & material flows model

Results also used as input to other Technical Reports

'Household Consumption'EEA Technical Report

'Sustainable use of natural resources'

EEA Technical Report

'Halting the loss of biodiversity'EEA Technical Report

'Environmental aspects of enlargement'

Advisory Group

'Europe’s Environment & the Global Dimension'

Multimedia

'Environment & health'EEA Technical Report

'Climate change & sustainable energy'

EEA Technical Report State of the Environment and Outlook report

2005

'European Environment Outlook'EEA Technical Report



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Key messagesKey messages

• The more fragmented European society is expected to increase some environmental pressures

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

EEA-31 EU-15 New-10

Index (1990 = 100)

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

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Number of households (EU-15) Number of households (New-10)Number of persons per household (EU-15) Number of persons per household (New-10)

Index (1990 = 100) units

Population development 1990-2030



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• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to meet short-term targets if all additional policies and measures planned so far are implemented

• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exceed long-term targets set to prevent harmful climate change

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EU-15 New-10 Per capita (EU-15) Per capita (New-10)

Mt CO2 eq/year t CO2 eq/cap/year

EU15 Kyoto Target (-8%)

NMS8 Kyoto Target (-7.8%)

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Global temperature change-'Baseline' Global temperature change-'Low emission scenario'

Degree Celsius

EU long-term sustainable target (6th EAP)



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• The recent enlargement of the European Union is expected to provide both opportunities for and threats to the environment

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Organic supply (N, P, K)

Potassium(K)

Phosphate(P)

Nitrogen(N)

New-8 EU-15 %%

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Methane(CH4; animals)

Nitrous oxide(N2O; fertilizer)

Potassium(K)

Phosphate(P)

Ammonia losses(NH3)

Nitrogen(N)

New-8 EU-15 %

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EU-15 New-10 Per capita (EU-15) Per capita (New-10)

Mt CO2 eq/year t CO2 eq/cap/year

EU15 Kyoto Target (-8%)

NMS8 Kyoto Target (-7.8%)

Use of fertilisers, Nutrient balances, ammonia losses and GHG emissions (2020/2001)



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Key messagesKey messages• Air pollution and its

impacts on health and ecosystems are expected to decline significantly

Excess of nitrogen deposition (2000 and 2030 for the MFR scenario)

Emissions of air pollutants (Baseline and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenarios, index 100 in 2000)

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PM2.5

PM10

NH3

SO2

NMVOC

NOX

MFR (2030) Baseline (2030) Baseline (2010) NEC ceiling (2010) Year 2000

Index



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Key messagesKey messages• Water use in Europe is

expected to become more sustainable, however many Mediterranean river basins will continue to face water stress

Water stress in large European river basins, 2000 and 2030

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Nemun

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Rhine

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Seine Po

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Tagus

Kizil Ir

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2000 2030



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• The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive is expected to reduce significantly the overall discharge of nutrients from point sources

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Currentsituation

UWWTDirective

Currentsituation

UWWTDirective

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UWWTDirective

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UWWTDirective

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Primary Secondary Tertiary Without treatment

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Group 1 (EU-15)

Group 2 (EU-15)Group 3 (EU-15)

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Group 2 (EU-15)

Group 3 (EU-15)

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Current situation UWWT Directive

kg N / inh. / yr

Discharges of nitrogen and phosphorous from wastewater treatment plants



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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.

a european perspective on sustainability

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