A Predictable Catastrophe - Council on Foreign Relations
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Op-EdA Predictable Catastrophe A sses sing an I sraeli Strike on Iran in 201 0 Author: Micah Z enko, Fellow fo r Conflict Prev ention March 4, 201 0 Weekendavisen (Originally a v ailable in Danish.) In Jan ua ry 199 5, th e New York Tim es published a disquieting a rticle bes t summ arized by its title: " I ra n MayBe Able to Build an Atomic Bomb in 5 Years, U.S. a nd Israeli Offi cials Fear. " Subsequent wa rnin gs from American n eo conserv ativ es, Is raeli of ficials, and I ran ian exile gr oups went ignored, and most po licy ma kers dis missed the prospect of an Iran ian nu clear w eapo n as more alarm ist than a lar min g. The apathy toward Iran' s nuclear am bitio ns evaporated in 2002, when ev ide nce emerged that Iran h ad a well-es tablished clandestine nu clear progra m outside o f th e sco pe o f th e Nuclea r Nonprolife rat ion Tr eaty -o f which I ran is a m ember- and its inspectio n a rm, the International Atomic Energy Agency (I AEA). After seven y ears of repeated revelat ions of Iran ian t ransgress ions, tensions between the P5+1-America, Britain , Fra nce, Germa ny, Russia, and China-and Iran h av e grown progress iv ely w orse. I f a bold, and pres ently unforeseen, a greement between t he P5+1 and Iran cannot be reached, it is increasingly likely that Israel will att empt a risky and high ly -destabiliz ing m ilitary strike against Iran's kno wn nuclear w eapo ns facilities. To analy ze the likelihoo d of an Israeli strike on Iran in 2010, t here a re fiv e iss ues to co nsider: First, t he lev el o f pe ss imism sur rounding a deal between th e P5+1 and Iran ha s reached an all-tim e lo w. In lat e Novem ber, in outgoing comm ents as Director General of the IAEA, the prev iously optimistic Mo ham med el- Bara dei declared that the ag ency ha d hit "a dead end" in its ability to verify the peaceful nat ur e o f I ran ' s nucl ear program . In January , Tehra n rejected the P5+1 diplomatic off er to s hip most of its lo w-enriched ur anium to R ussia for further enrichm ent t o f uel nu clear r eactors that produce medical isotopes. More recently , it r ejected an Am erican offe r t o s ell th e isotopes directly to I ran . Seco nd, th e Obama a dministra tion no lo nger believ es the findings o f the al way s- content ious Nat ional Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of 2007, which judged "with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nucl ear weapons progra m." The National Intelligence Co uncil is drafting an updated NIE that w ill bring the United States clo ser in line with its allies' estimates, w hich repo rtedly contended that I ran both contin ued its research an d dev elo pment w ork for building a bomb, and stands at th e brink o f hav ing th e " breakout capacity " to do so. The a lignm ent of these more dire projections co uld ca tal y ze tacit U.S. and w estern support fo r Israeli military action, if sanctions fail. Thir d, foreign intelligence a gencies do not know t he cu rrent operational stat us or location of I ra n's suspected Home > By Publication Type > Op-eds > A Predictable Catastrophe
