A Survey of theFertilizer Sector in India SWP331

World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 331

June 1979

Prelbared by: Balu Bumb (consultant)Industrial Projects Departrnent andDevelopment Research Department

Colyright © 1979Tho World Bank18118 H Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

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The views and interpretations in this document are those of the author and

should not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations,

or to any individual acting in their behalf.

WORLD BANK

Staff Working Paper No. 331

June 1979

A SURVEY OF THE

FERTILIZER SECTOR IN INDIA

This paper analyzes the trends and patterns in consumption, pro-

duction, and distribution of fertilizer nutrients in India, and provides the

background information for the mathematical programming model of the Indian

Fertilizer Sector. The consumption and production of chemical fertilizers

have increased at an annual compound rate of, respectively, 17.9% and 17.6%

during the last 25 years. Approximately one-third of the consumption re-

quirements are met through imports. As the growing need for foodgrains in

India will continue to accelerate the demand for chemical fertilizers, the

future planning of the fertilizer sector should obviously concentrate on

devising an optimum combination of domestic production and imports, so that

future supplies of fertilizer nutrients could be made available to the farm-

ers at a minimum cost. Various issues related to optimum size, location,

product-mix, and distribution patterns leading to minimum farm-gate price

of chemical fertilizers are being explored by the programming methods, and

will be reported in another paper in this series.

Prepared by: Balu Bumb (consultant)Industrial Projects Department and SECIORAL LiBRARY

Development Research Center INTERNATiONAL ANYK

RECONSTRt)CTION AND DETl:()i'MEN'I'

AUG 1 5 1988Copyright ® 1979The World Bank1818 H Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20433U.S.A.

Acknowledgements

I am grateful to Bill Sheldrick, Armeane Choksi, Alex Meeraus,and Harald Stier for their advice and guidance. My debts to B.S. Minhasand T.N. Srinivasan are immense for the benefit of having several discussionswith them on issues relating to Indian agriculture and fertilizer policy.

I am also thankful to S.K. Mukherjee for his detailed comments on an earlierdraft of this paper; and to P.V. John (Fertilizer Corporation of India),A. Rangachari (Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation), M.T.R. Sharma(National Council of Applied Economic Research), G. Sobhti (FertilizerAssociation of India) and S. Sunder (Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers)for their help and suggestions.

ABBREVIATIONS

AS Ammonimum SulphateCAN Calcium Ammonium NitrateDAP Diammonium PhosphateFACT Fertilizers and Chemicals, TravancoreFAI Fertilizer Association of IndiaFCI Fertilizer Corporation of IndiaGSFC Gujarat State Fertilizer Co.HYV High-Yielding VarietyIEL Indian Explosives Ltd.IFFCO Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Ltd.

IFPC Intensive Fertilizer Promotion Campaign

K(K20) Potassium Oxide Content in FertilizerMOP Muriate of PotashN Nitrogen Content in FertilizersNCAER National Council of Applied Economic ResearchONGC Oil and Natural Gas Commission

P(P 0 ) Phosphate Content in FertilizersRITiS Rail India Technical and Economic Services, Ltd.SOP Sulphate of PotashSSP Single Super-PhosphateTSP Triple Super-PhosphateWS Water Soluble

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .................................. i-iv

1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................. 1

2.0 INDIAN AGRICULTURE ....................................... 2

2.1 Structural Characteristics of Indian Agriculture .... 3

2.1.1 Rainfall and Agricultural Specialization ..... 32.1.2 Foodgrains Production ........................ 42.1.3 Irrigation ................................... 62.1.4 Size of Holding .............................. 62.1.5 New Technology of Production .... ............. 8

2.2 Patterns of growth: Recent Trends .... .............. 8

3.0 CONSUMPTION AND DEMAND FORECASTS OF FERTILIZER NUTRIENTS 9

3.1 Fertilizer Consumption ............................. 10

3.1.1 Nutrientwise Consumption .133.1.2 Regional Distribution .133.1.3 Per Hectare Fertilizer Consumption .15

3.1.4 Seasonwise and Cropwise Consumption .163.1.5 N:P:K Ratio .17

3.1.6 Factors Influencing Fertilizer Consumptionin India .18

3.2 Fertilizer Consumption Forecasts .22

3.2.1 The Donde-Brown Forecasts .243.2.2 The Planning Commission, and Ministry of

Agriculture and Irrigation Projections .253.2.3 The Parikh-Srinivasan Optimum Requirements 26

3.2.4 The National Commission on AgricultureProjections ................................. 27

3.2.5 The FAI Projections . .......................... 293.2.6 The NCAER Projections ..... ................... 29

4.0 CAPACITY, PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND RAW MATERIALS .......... 30

4.1 Capacity ............................................ 31

4.1.1 Installed Capacity ...... ..................... 314.1.2 Sectorwise Capacity ...... .................... 344.1.3 Regional Distribution of Licensed Capacity ... 354.1.4 Capacity Utilization ..... .................... 374.1.5 Capacity Utilization of N Plants .... ......... 374.1.6 Capacity Utilization of P 205 Plants .... ...... 38

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Page No.

4.2 Production of Fertilizer Nutrients .; .................. 39

4.2.1 Chronology of Fertilizer Manufacture . ......... 39

4.2.2 Nutrient-wise Production .39

4.2.3 Regional Distribution of Fertilizer Production 414.2.4 Product Composition of Fertilizer'Nutrients 42

4.3 Fertilizer Imports .......... ....... 43

4.3.1 Imports of Nitrogenous Fertilizers ...-........- 43

4.3.2 Imports of Phosphatic:Fertilizers 444.3.3 Imports of Potassic.Fertilizers . . 454.3.4 Self Sufficiency in Fertilizers ........ 46

4.4 Raw Materials . . .................. ..................... 48

4.4.1 Production and Potential of Raw.Materials .... 484.4.2 Oil and Natural Gas . 49

5.0 PRICING OF FERTILIZER PRODUCTS .. .. 50

5.1 Pricing of Nitrogenous Fertilizers: StatutorilyControlled .............. ................... *.*.*.. 51

5.2 Pricing of NP and NPK Complex Fertilizers .. 555.3 Pricing of Phosphatic Fertilizers ....................... 565.4 Pricing of Potassic Fertilizers . ....................... 575.5 Prices of Fertilizer Raw Materials . .. 585.6 The Marathe Comittee Report, 1976 . .58

6.0 DISTRIBUTION OF FERTILIZER.PRODUCTS ..... 59

6.1 Dealers .....................................- 61

6.2 Location and Market Coverage ........ '646..3 Fertilizer Promotion Programs ... 65

6.4 Transportation of Fertilizers: The RITES study ...-.... 66

Annexes

A. Statistical Tables

B. References

List of Text Tables

Page No.

1. Output per Hectare on Irrigated and UnirrigatedLand ............ ..................................... 7

2. Zonewise Consumption of Fertilizers, 1968-69and 1977-78 .14

3. Fertilizer Consumption, 1961-62 to 1977-78 .... ....... 19

4. All-India Fertilizer Consumption by Seed Varietyand Irrigation, 1975-76 .21

5. Availability and Consumption of Nitrogen, 1962-63

to 1976-77 ........................................... 23

6. Fertilizer Balance, 1982-83 .47

LIST OF FIGURES

Page No.

2.1 Foodgrains Production in India, 1950 to 1979 ....... 5

4.1 Location of Fertilizer Factories .32

4.2 The Flow Chart of the Fertilizer Industry .... ...... 40

5.1 Prices of Fertilizer products, 1971-77 .... ......... 52

6.1 Fertilizer Distribution Channels .... ............... 62

6.2 Estimated Number of Wholesale and RetailFertilizer Dealers .63

Summary and Conclusions

1. Growing population and increasing per capita income in India will

continue to accelerate the demand for foodgrains as well as other agricultural

commodities. Constrained by the limited availability of cultivable land,

India's future efforts to increase agricultural output have to be concentrated

in shifting the agricultural production functions upwards for various crops

by increasing the consumption of fertilizer nutrients along with high-yielding

varieties on limited land resources.

2. Fertilizer consumption in India has recorded an over fifty-fold

increase during the last 25 years. It increased from 65.7 thousand tons in

1952-53 to 4,287 thousand tons in 1977-78 with a compound growth rate of

17.9% per annum. Nitrogen consumption increased at an annual rate of 16.9

percent while phosphate (P 0 ) and potash (K 20) consumption grew at a compound

annual rate of 22.8 and 21.0 percent between 1952-53 and 1977-78. In absolute

terms, nitrogen consumption increased from 57.8 thousand tons in 1952-53 to

2,915 thousand tons in 1977-78. Similarly, phosphate and potash consumption

increased from 4.6 and 3.3 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 868 and 505 thousand

tons in 1977-78.

3. Zone-wise, state-wise, and district-wise analysis of fertilizer

consumption indicates wide regional disparities. Punjab, Haryana, Andhra

Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu accounted for nearly one-half of the

total fertilizer consumption between 1967-68 and 1977-78. On1 the other

hand, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, the three largest states

having nearly 35% of the total cropped area, accounted for only 15% of total

fertilizer consumption. The consumption of fertilizer nutrient is much more

concentrated at the district level than at the state. In 1974-75, 95 of

380, i.e., 25%, districts consumed more than two-thirds of the fertilizer

nutrients used in the country. Thus, efforts must be made to increase

fertilizer consumption in those districts where its use is minimal.

4. Not only are there regional disparities in fertilizer consumption

in India, but also there are seasonal and crop-wise unevenness. Approximately

65% of the total fertilizer consumption is concentrated in Rabi season, and

about one-half is devoted to rice and wheat crops.

5. Approximately one-third of the total cropped area was fertilized

in 1975-76 with a range of 5% (Assam) and 76% (Punjab). The use of ferti-

lizer nutrients per hectare of fertilized land in the same year varied

between 28 kgs (Himachal Pradesh) and 128 kgs (Tamil Nadu) with an all-India

average of 78 kgs. Since about two thirds of the cultivated land is still

unfertilized, - partly because of lack of knowledge about fertilizers and

mostly because of paucity of irrigation and credit facilities-efforts must

be made to diffuse knowledge about fertilizers among non-users through

extension programs and promotion campaigns, along with developing facilities

for irrigation and credit. Efforts are also required to obtain a better

balance between N, P, and K.

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6. Various institutions and individuals have attempted to forecastthe future consumption of fertilizer nutrients. These forecasts of fer-tilizer consumption by various authors vary between 4.15 m. and 6.46 m. tonsfor 1978-79 and betwen 6.0 and 8.0 million tons in 1983-84.

7. A suitable forecasting methodology based on realistic behavioralassumptions is still lacking. Although forecasting the future demand forfertilizers is a difficult task, due to uncertainties associated with rain-fall, prices and other socio-economic factors, an attempt.based on economicand non-economic factors influencing the consumption of fertilizer nutrientsmight provide plausible forecasts.

8. Installed capacity has increased from 16.7 thousand tons of Nand 20.5 thousand tons of P 05 in 1950 to 3,028 thousand tons of N and 915thousand tons of P205 in 1937 and is likely to reach 7.2 million tons of Nand 1.5 million tons of P 05 in early eighties. Approximately three-fourthsof the N capacity is in the form of urea. A small part of the additionalcapacity will be available through nitrophosphate and NPK complex fertilizers.No additional capacity is likely to be built for ammonium sulphate andcalcium ammonium nitrate, the two most important products of the sixties.Similarly, TSP and NPK complex fertilizers will occupy major share in addi-tional capacity build-ups for P2 05'

9. Nearly one-half of the existing fertilizer capacity is underpublic control, and about 40% under private ownership. The cooperativesector controls 9 - 14 percent of the existing capacity. The Indian FarmersFertilizer Cooperative is the only cooperative factory which has plantsin Kandla and Kalol (Gujarat) and is constructing one at Phulpur (U.P.)with the help of a World Bank loan. The share of public sector in fertilizercapacity will increase to 62-65 percent after the completion of the approvedas well as under-construction projects.

10. Capacity utilization has varied between 60% and 73% for N andbetween 46% and 66% for P205 during 1973-77 period. Power failures, shortageof power supply, limited availability of raw materials, and time-lag inobtaining spare parts are stated as some of the improtant factors inhibitingcapacity utilization in India.

11. Like consumption, production of nitrogenous and phosphatic ferti-lizers in India has increased severalfold. Nitrogen production increasedat a compound rate of 17.6% per annum from 53.1 thousand tons in 1952-53 to2.0 million tons in 1977-78. Output of phosphatic fertilizers also grew ata compound rate of 17.6% per annum between 1952-53 and 19-77-78. In absoluteterms, the P205 output increased from 7.4 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 670.0thousand tons in 1977-78.

12. In the fifties and early sixties, ammonium sulphate and singlesuperphosphate were the main nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers producedin the country. Urea and complex fertilizers have occupied the dominant

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position in the seventies. Approximately, three-fourths of the nitrogenwas produced in the form of urea in 1977-78. Simiarly, a little less thanthree-fourths of P 205 was manufactured in the form of NP/NPK complex fer-tilizer.

13. Approximately one-fourth of the nitrogenous and phosphatic fer-tilizer requirements are met through imports. As there are no known reservesof potash in India, all of the potassic fertilizer requirements are, andwill continue to be, met through imports. Urea, amonium sulphate, calciumammonium nitrate, diammonium phosphate, and muriate of potash are the mainfertilizer products imported mainly from Germany (East and West), Poland,Italy, Rumania, Quatar, UK, USA and USSR.

14. Inspite of the additional capacity build-ups leading to increasedproduction of N and P 205 in the early eighties, India will have to rely onimports because of increased demand for fertilizer nutrients.

15. In the field of raw materials, naphtha occupies an important placein nitrogen production, accounting for about 70% of the installed capacity.Increased world prices of petroleum products might increase the use of coaland natural gas (available from the Bombay High and Cambay basins) as feed-stocks for nitrogen production in the future capacity build-ups. Similarly,the discoveries of rockphosphate deposits in Udaipur (Rajasthan) and Jhabua(M.P.) districts might substitute for imported rock to a small degree.

16. The Government of India has always controlled the prices of urea,ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate. The prices of complexand phosphatic fertilizers are generally fixed by the manufactures, althougha prior governmental approval is mandatory because of the subsidy of Rs.1,250 per ton of P2 05 introduced in March 1976. Since the potassic fer-tilizers are mostly imported by the Minerals and Metals Trading Corporationof India, the Government of India fixes (though not statutorily) the pricesof the potassic fertilizers, too. Thus, the fertilizer market in India isnot a competitive market, i.e., prices are not determined by the forces ofdemand and supply.

17. The Marathe Committee, appointed in January 1976, is currentlystudying the pricing structure of various fertilizer products. The Govern-ment of India has fixed the maximum retail prices of urea, ammonium sulphateand calcium ammonium nitrate as Rs. 1,550, Rs. 935.0 and Rs. 1,015. TheGovernment has also announced the maximum ex-factory prices of these threeproducts as Rs. 1,158, Rs. 625, and Rs. 686, respectively. The MaratheCommittee has provided the ex-factory retention prices for each plant. Thedifference between the maximum ex-factory price and ex-factory retentionprice will be credited/debited to the Fertilizer Price Fund Account. Giventhe existing prices, production of urea, AS and CAN would remain subsidized,to a large extent, till March 1979.

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18. The distribution of fertilizer products is handled by the coopera-tive societies as well as private retailers. Of all the retail outletsdistributing fertilizer products, approximately 60% belong to the coopera-tives and other public institutions and 40% to the private sector. Punjab,Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jammuand Kashmir have predominantly cooperative outlets, whereas states in thesouth and east are served mostly by private retailers.

19. Most of the pivate retailers are located at the district or atthe block/mandi headquarters, while some cooperatives are diffused tointerior villages. At present, one retail outlet serves approximatelyeight villages. Moreover, the district/block headquarters have more thanone retailer. Hence, the efforts should be made to increase the retailoutlets in the isolated and far-off villages in order to increase theconsumption of fertilizer nutrients.

20. Railways account for approximately 80% of the fertilizer trafficin India. In 1975-76, railways moved 7.2 million tons of fertilizer products,and are expected to move 13 million tons in 1978-79. As the existing railwaycapacity is approaching saturation, increasing fertilizer traffic, along withincreased average lead and trans-shipment, may create severe distributionalproblems, unless new railway capacity is built-up, and other modes of trans-portation are substituted. Product exchange among manufacturers should alsobe encouraged so that unnecessary criss-crossing of fertilizer products belessened.

1.0 Introduction

India is the seventh largest in area, the second most populouscountry and the most populous democracy in the world. Compared with coun-tries in North and South America, Africa, and Australia, India is relativelydensely populated, whereas in comparison to Japan and most of the countriesin Europe, India is less densely populated nation.1/ India's populationhas grown at an annual rate of 2.2 percent during 1961-71 period, and islikely to grow approximately at the same rate in the next decade or two. Itis generally believed that heavy population pressures on scarce land re-sources have constrained India's economic development. Nevertheless, India'sgross domestic product (at 1970-71 prices) had increased at an annual rateof 3.3 percent during 1961-62 to 1976-77 period, while its per capita grossdomestic product increased at an average rate of 1.1 percent per annum. TheGDP is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.7% during the1978-83 period. The per capita GNP was about US$150.00 in 1976. 2/

About, 80 percent of India's population lived in rural areasand 70 percent of its working population was engaged in agriculture in 1971.Nearly one-half of total net domestic product in 1973-74 was produced inagricultural sector. The proportion of net domestic product originating inagriculture has fluctuated between 45 and 50 percent during the last fifteenyears.3/ Economic growth in India generally fluctuates around the perform-ance of the agricultural sector. In 1975-76, the value added in agriculturerecorded an annual increase of over 13 percent enabling a record growth of8.8 percent in total NDP (in real terms) over 1974-75 level.

The Draft Five Year Plan 1978-83 has laid greater emphasis onagricultural and rural development to achieve the objectives of self-reliance, and eradication of unemployment and poverty. Approximately Rs 299billion, accounting for about 43% of the total outlays, are provided foragricultural and rural development programs. In absolute amount, theseoutlays are nearly double compared to the outlays in the Fifth Plan. 4/ ThePlan also envisages to speed up the growth rate in agricultural sector fromabout 1.0 percent during 1970-75 period to approximately 4.0% during 1978-83period, and enhance foodgrains production from 121 million tons in 1977-78to about 141-144 million tons in 1982-83 by investing in irrigation faci-lities and extension services. This increased emphasis on agriculturalproduction will obviously accelerate the demand for chemical fertilizers,because over 50% increase in foodgrainds production between 1970-71 and1973-74 is attributed to increased consumption of fertilizers. 5/

1/ See Table 1.2.

2/ The World Bank estimate.

3/ See Table 1.3.

4/ See Table 1.4.

5/ See John W. Mellor, The New Economics of Growth (Ithaca, N.Y.:Cornell University Press, 1976), p. 31.

India has invested considerable resources in building heavyindustries and socio-economic infrastructure during its four five yearplans and three annual plans (see Table 1.5). The growth of industrialoutput was at an average annual rate of 7.8.percent during 1955-65 and 3.5percent in the following ten years (1965-75). Slow growth of industrialoutput in the latter period is attributed to failure of agriculture, globalenergy crisis of the early seventies resulting into higher import costs, andwars with Pakistan. Industrial production is envisaged to grow at anaverage rate of 7% per annum during 1978-83 period.

Imports and exports account, respectively, for 6% and 5% ofIndia's net national product. Imports play a crucial role in supplyingtechnical know-how, machinery and equipments for industrial development.Petroleum products, chemical fertilizers, cotton, edible oils, oil seeds,and foodgrains are other important import items. Since the ability toimport depends, to a large extent, on the capacity to export, India hasmade serious efforts to increase its exports. Between 1960-61 and 1973-74, India's exports have grown at 7% per annum, and are likely to growat an annual rate of 8.5% during the 1978-83 period. India's major exportitems are tea, cotton and jute textile products, sugar, iron ore and oreconcentrates, leather goods and "new manufactures" like iron and steelproducts, engineering goods, chemicals, electrical and telephone equipments,and other metal products.

India has rich deposits of coal, iron ore and limestone, andplans to become self-sufficient in aluminimum consumption by the end ofthe 5th Plan. In the fields of zinc, copper,lead and nickel, the domesticproduction falls short of demand, and therefore, India has to rely onimports. The discovery of Bombay High and Bassein oil fields might helpIndia to reduce its dependence on imports for oil and petroleum products andincrease its production of chemical fertilizers.

2.0 Indian Agriculture

Agriculture is the 'most vital' sector of the Indian economy. Itprovides not only food and raw materials but also employment and income toa very large proportion of the population. Approximately 72 percent of thelabor force and 90% of the rural poors are engaged in agriculture. Fluc-tuations in agricultural output are generally reflected in aggregatenational income as well as industrial sector. In 1977-78, the agriculturaland allied activities sector contributed about 43% to the gross-value-addedin the country.

The contribution of the agricultural sector to India's exports isequally significant. The exports of raw and processed agricultural commo-dities accounted for 38 percent of all exports in 1973-74. If the value ofmanufactured goods having agricultural contents (like cotton, jute, wool,leather, etc.) is also included, the contribution of agricultural sector

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increases to 54%. 1/ In absolute terms, the agricultural sector exportedcommodities and raw materials worth Rs 963 crores in 1973-74. Thus, it isan important source of foreign exchange for India.

Although the industrial sector has made rapid strides throughmodern technology in recent time, its dependence on agricultural sector isstill quite significant. An analysis of the intersectoral flows for 1964-65by the National Commission on Agriculture revealed that agricultural inputs(worth Rs. 2,085 crores) accounted for about 20 percent of the value ofindustrial output (Rs 10,106 crores). In some industries, this dependencewas to the extent of 40 to 50 percent. The share of agriculture as inputsin the total output of gur and sugar is as high as 58%, while in tea andcoffee it is 42%. Cotton and jute textiles, leather products, and vege-table oils are other industries which rely heavily on agricultural sector.Besides, the agricultural sector provides wage goods for the workers of theindustrial sector.

The contribution of the industrial sector to the growth of agri-cultural sector is comparatively small. The value of industrial inputsaccounted for only 2.53% of the total output in the agricultural sectorin 1964-65. Although the increased use of fertilizers, electric pumps,oil engines, tractors, and pesticides after 1964-65 might have increasedthis share considerally, yet the industrial sector's role in modernizingagriculture needs jacking-up.

In spite of the dominant role played by agriculture in India'seconomy, the growth of agricultural output had been far from satisfactory.Agricultural output grew at an annual rate of 4.07% during 1950-51 to 1960-61 period, and slowed down considerely thereafter. High rate of growthduring the fifties was brought about by extending the cultivated area. Asthe scope for further extension of cultivable land narrowed down, intensivecultivation through multiple cropping and irrigation in early sixties, andthrough the adoption of new technology in the late sixties and early seven-ties (HYV seeds and chemical fertilizers) contributed for further growth inagricultural output. The overall annual rate of growth of agriculturaloutput between 1961-62 and 1976-77 has been 2.10%. 2/ As 15 million hectaresof additional cultivated area is expected to be brought about under irriga-tion, the rate of growth agricultural output is envisaged to be 4% duringthe 1978-83 period.

2.1 Structural Characteristics of Indian Agriculture

2.1.1 Rainfall and Agricultural Specialization.

With a gross cropped area of 173.92 million hectares and an irri-gated area of 48.41 million hectares in 1977-78, India ranks third in area

1/ See Report of the National Commission on Agriculture, 1976, Part II,P.8.

2/ See Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, p.3 5.

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of cultivated land (after the USSR and USA) and first in irrigated land.India cultivates nearly 45 percent of its geographical area.. Approximatelythree-fourths of total cropped area is devoted to foodgrains. Wheat, rice,barley, maize, jowar and bajra are main foo:d crops, while cotton, jute,sugarcane, tobacco and groundnuts are principal non-food crops.

Indian agriculture is dependent u rfl0unsoon rain for its waterneeds, and therefore, is very weather sensitive. Krishna has estimatedthe rainfall elasticity of crop output in Punjab as 0.28. 1/ Not onlyrainfall is unpredictable, but also it is mostly concentrated in a fourmonth period - June-September - of rainy season (see Table 2.2). Irre-gularity and unpredictability of monsoons have produced cyclical patterns inIndia's agricultural production (see Figure 1). A peak in foodgrainsproduction corresponds to a very good rainfull year while a trough to adrought year. Concentration of rainfall in a short period of four months ina year has restricted the growth of multiple cropping. Only 22 percent ofnet area sown was cropped more than once in 1977-78.

Rainfall has uneven regional variations too. East and WestCoasts, the Ganges valley, and East Central India receive good to heavyrainfall. These areas are also relatively densely populated. Rice, being alabor-intensive and water-intensive crop, is largely concentrated in theseparts of the country. Wheat is grown as a dry or irrigated crop whererainfall is lighter. Punjab, Haryana, and U.P. are the main wheat-growingstates. Maize, jowar and bajra are grown in those parts of Rajasthan,Gujarat and Maharashtra where rainfall is generally very low.

Commercial crops are grown throughout India, but there is someregional specialization: tea in Assam and Bengal; jute in Bengal, andcotton in Gujarat and Maharashtra; sugarcane in U.P., Bihar, Karnataka andMaharashtra; and coffee in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, and tobacco in AndhraPradesh. Some rubber is also grown in the South.

2.1.2 Foodgrains Production

Cereals and pulses are the basic sources of calories and proteinfor a vast majority of India's population. Foodgrains production hasincreased from 55.01 million tons in 1950-51 to 108.42 million tons in1970-71, yielding an impressive compound growth rate of 3.45% per annum (SeeTable 2.4.). However, India's foodgrains production fluctuated widelyin-between., After reaching a peak level of approximately 88 million tons in1964-65, foodgrains production declined to 72-74 million tons in the follow-ing two years due to the disastrous droughts of 1965-66 and 1966-67. In1967-68, output increased to 95 million tons and showed continuous annualincrease till it reached another peak level of 108.43 million tons in1970-71. Between 1970-71 and 1975-76, foodgrains output fluctuated, mainlybecause of drought conditions in Western India. In 1975-76, foodgrains

1/ R. Krishna, "The Growth of Aggregate Output in the Punjab,"Indian Economic Journal XII (July-September, 1964): 53-59.

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production increased by 19.4% over 1974-75 level and by 11.43% over 1970-71level. Late arrivals of monsoon rain in 1976 reduced the foodgrains pro-duction in 1976-77 by approximately 10 million tons. However, in 1977-78,the foodgrains production is estimated at 121.0 million tons (Table 2.4).The target of foodgrains production is 141-144 million tons in 1982-83. 1/

2.1.3 Irrigation

As the scope for expanding the cultivable land is limited inIndia, further increases in agricultural output, in general, and in food-grains production in particular have to come about by intensive cultiva-tion. Intensive cultivation depends on increased use of modern inputs -fertilizers and improved seeds - and assured supply of irrigation water.Irrigation is an important means of land-augmenting technological change,because it increases the effective supply of land in efficiency units byshifting the production function upward. Output per hectare on irrigatedland is much higher than unirrigated land, as is obvious from Table 1.Irrigation also reduces the dependence of agricultural production on rain-fall. Furthermore, the adoption of yield-raising innovations, like improvedvarieties of seeds and chemical fertilizers, and multiple cropping ispossible only in irrigated areas.

Investment in the development of irrigation infrastructure hasincreased from Rs. 434 crores in 1951-56 to Rs. 9,650 crores during theFive Year Plan, 1978-83 period (Table 1.5). Gross irrigated area increasedfrom 22.6 million hectares in 1950-51 to 48.41 million hectares in 1977-78.Although India has the largest irrigated area in the world, only 28% oftotal cropped area is presently irrigated. The Irrigation Commission hasestimated an irrigation potential of 107 million hectares - 72 millionhectares from surface water and 35 million hectares from underground waterresources - in India. The present plan envisages to create an additionlirrigation potential of 17 million hectares, of which 15 million hectareswill be utilized by 1982-83. Thus, total irrigated land will increase to63.41 million hectares by the end of 1982-83. Increased availability ofirrigation water will enhance multiple corpping to 26% of the net areasown.

2.1.4 Size of Holding

Not only Indian agriculture shows wide fluctuations resultingfrom weather variations, but it is also characterized by low productivityand excessive fragmentation. A comprehensive census of agricultural opera-tions undertaken in 1970-71 revealed that there were 70 million agriculturalholdings on an operated area of 162 million hectares, yielding an averagesize of operational holding equal to 2.3 hectares (Table 2.7). Of these,50% holdings are of less than 1 hectare, and 70% holdings are of less than

1/ See Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, p.5.

-7 -

TABLE 1

Output per Hectre on Irrigated and Unirrigated Land

(Based on Three Years Average)

(Kgs)

H.Y.V Irrigated Unirrigated

1970-71 1973-74 1970-71 1973-74 1970-71 1972-73

to to to to to to

Crop 1972-73 1975-76 1972-73 1975-76 1972-73 1975-76

Rice 2,231 1,929 1,358 1,154 743 863

Wheat 2,101 1,930 1,688 1,608 876 790

Other Cereals 1,066 1,001 1,275 1,394 607 627

Source: Draft FIve Year Plan, 1978-83, p. 39.

2 hectares. Thus, majority of the cultivators are small cultivators with

small operational holdings. Furthermore, these holdings are fragmented,

scattered and excessively parcelized. In 1960--61, there were approximately

6 parcels per operational holding. Minhas has suggested a program of

compulsory consolidation of holdings, along with an integrated development

of irrigation infrastructure and public works programs in rural areas, to

increase the productive capacity of the agricultural sector. 1/

Studies in the Economics of Farm Management by the Govermnent

of India in various districts have revealed a negative assocaition between

the size of holding and land productivity. Availability of relatively

cheap family labor makes these farms labor-intensive. Size of holding is

also negatively related with cropping intensity and irrigation (see Table

2.8). Recent survey by the NCAER has revealed that in many states there is

a negative association between the size of holding and fertilizer use per

hectare. That is, small farms have higher usage of chemical fertilizers

compared to their larger counterparts (see Table 2.9). Thus, higher output

per hectare on smaller farms results from higher labor, water and ferti-

lizers as well as intensive cultivation of land.

Since small farms are relatively labor-water-fertilizer in-

tensive, the small size of cultivation holding per se might not obstruct

economic growth and the adoption of new technology of production in agri-

1/ See B.S. Minhas, "Planning and the Poor" (New Delhi: S. Chand &

Co., 1974), Chap. 2.

- 8 -

cultural sector. 1/ In fact, small farmers have adopted modern inputs -fertilizers and improved seeds-as earnestly as large farmers (see Table2.9). The National Commission on Agriculture has also recommended that inIndia's context, small peasant proprietor-based agriculture development isthe most desirable and has to be consciously planned and promoted. TheSmall Farmers Development Agency was created in 1969-70 to help smallfarmers in the adoption of new technology of production and better farmpractices.

In addition to consolidation of land holdings, redistributionof land from large farmers to landless agricultural workers, tenant cul-tivators and marginal farmers through effective land reforms is consideredimportant to increase production and eradicate poverty in rural areas.On efficiency grounds, the redistribution of land will not reduce output,although probability is high that it might increase output because ofhigh labor-intensity of small farms. On the equity front, redistribution ofland will produce egalitarian distribution of income in rural areas, becauseland is the main income-generating asset in the countryside.

2.1.5 New Technology of Production

Although land, labor and animal power still dominate agriculturalproduction in India, 2/ the use of improved seeds, chemical fertilizers,oil engines and electric pumps have grown rapidly in recent years. Con-sumption of chemical fertilizers was 20.1 kgs per hectare of cultivated landin 1976-77 as against 1.93 kgs per hectare in 1960-61. Similarly, highyielding varieties of seeds were used on 15.5% of total cropped area in1973-74 as against 1.2% of gross area sown in 1966-67. The use of electricpumps and oil engines increased from 1 million in 1965-66 to 4.2 million in1973-74, while the number of tractors employed registered threefold increase,from 54 thousand in 1965-66 to 170 thousand in 1972.

2.2 Patterns of Growth: Recent Trends

Studies in growth of output and patterns of growth of inputshow that in certain regions of the country growth in agriculture output isprimarily explained by spread of irrigation and multipile cropping, whilein others it is due to water, seed and fertilizer technology. The picturevaries from district to district. Table 2.11 presents comparative dataon gross value of crop output along with important inputs in the triennium

1/ The average size of holding is much smaller in Japan and S. Koreathan in India, while their average yields are much higher comparedto India (See Table 2.10).

2/ B. Bumb, "Production Relations in Indian Agriculture: An Analysis ofthe Findings," paper presented at the Southeast Regional Meeting ofthe Association for Asian Studies, University of Florida, Gainesville,Januarv 1977.

1970-71 to 1972-73 at the district level. Approximately 18% of the dis-

tricts in India cultivating 15% of gross cropped area produced 28 percent of

aggregate output and had per hectare output above Rs. 1,500. These dis-

tricts accounted for 39% of chemical fertilizers consumed, 41% pumpsets

installed, 47% tractors used and 34 percent gross irrigated area in the

country. The next 25 percent districts had a yield of Rs. 1,000 - 1,500 per

hectare, and accounted for approximately 25 percent of total cropped area

and produced 32 percent of aggregate output. Their share among major inputs

was more or less equal to their share in aggregate output. Taken together,

these two groups of districts accounted for approximately 60% of the aggre-

gate output and above 60% of major inputs. The remainder of the districts,

approximately 58%, had yields of less than Rs. 1,000 per hectare and

accounted for 40% of aggregate output. Their share in major inputs was

also comparatively low.

An analysis of growth rates of value of agricultural output

during 1962-63 to 1964-65 and 1970-71 to 1972-73 period reveals that the

districts, which recorded an annual compound growth rate of above 3%,

accounted for 39% of fertilizers consumed and 45% of gross irrigated area

in the country (see table 2.12). Nearly one-third of the districts

experienced an annual compound growth rate of 1 to 3 percent. Their share

in aggregate output and major inputs was close to one-third. Growth rate

of 1 to 3 percent per annum was a model growth rate for the country during

this period.

Thus, a comparative analysis of growth rates and levels of per

hectare output at the district level identifies the critical role of

chemical fertilizers and irrigation development in enhancing agricultural

production.

3.0 Consumption and Demand Forecasts of Fertilizer Nutrients

The National Commission on Agriculture has estimated that the

demand for foodgrains will be between 150 and 163 million tons in 1985

and between 205 and 225 million tons in 2,000. As the scope for expanding

cultivable area is extremely limited, most of the additional increases in

foodgrains production in India has to come about by increased land produc-

tivity. The Commission has further postulated that a supply of 164 million

tons of foodgrains can be created if the consumption of chemical fertilizers

increases to 9 million tons. "If, however, the fertilizers consumption

reaches only 7 million tons, production will be of the order of 150 million

tons. The production of other crops will also be lower. The lower growth

rate in agricultural production would result in a shortfall in the overall

growth rate, income and demand for foodgrains and other agricultural com-

modities." 1/ Thus, fertilizer consumption will play a critical role in

shaping IndTa's future agricultural development.

1/ Report of the National Commission on Agriculture, 1976, Part III,

p. 96.

- 10 -

In 1977-78, the total fertilizer consumption was of the magnitudeof 4.3 million tons - 54% above the 1973-74 record level consumption of2.8 million tons. To meet the targets of 150 and 163 million tons offoodgrains production in 1985, fertilizer consumption has to increase,respectively, by 63 and 109% in a period of seven years. To assess thefeasibility and compatibility of these targets, we now turn to a detailedanalysis of the past trends, present status and future potentials of con-sumption, production, and distribution of fertilizer nutrients and productsin India.

3.1 Fertilizer Consumption

Fertilizer consumption in India recorded an over fifty-foldincrease during the last 25 years. It increased from 65.7 thousand tons in1952-53 to 4.29 million tons in 1977-78 with a compound growth rate of 17.9percent per annum. Between 1952-53 and 1973-74, the consumption of fer-tilizer nutrients showed an uninterrupted upward trend and was doublingalmost every five years. Between 1952-53 and 1962-63, fertilizer consump-tion showed an increase of 384 thousand tons, whereas between 1963-64 and1973-74, it increased by over 2 millions tons. Thus, in absolute terms,fertilizer consumption recorded significant increase in the latter period.The introduction of high-yielding varieties under Intensive Area DevelopmentPrograms and Intensive District Development Programs gave a boost to fer-tilizer consumption in the sixties. Concentrating development resources ina few potentially productive districts did result into increased fertilizerconsumption and foodgrains production.

- 11 -

In 1974-75, fer'tilizer consumption decreased to 2.6 million tons

compared to 2.8 million tons in the previous year. The fertilizer crisis 1/

of 1973-74 resulting in increased fertilizer prices is considered the main

cause for this 9 percent decrease in fertilizer use. Nitrogen (through urea)

price increased from Rs. 2.28 per kilogram in 1973-74 to Rs. 4.35 per kg. in

1974-75: an increase of 90 percent. Similarly, SSP and MOP prices increased,

respectively, by 89 and 81 percent. In real terms, the amount of paddy and

wheat required to purchase 1 kg of nitrogen increased, respectively, from

3.26 and 3.00 kilogram in 1973-74 to 5.89 and 4.14 kilograms in 1974-75.

What's true for nitrogen (urea) is also true for phosphate and potash. 2/

In 1975-76, the fertilizer consumption recovered the 1973-74

level, while in 1976-77, it registered an increase of approximately 18

percent over 1975-76 consumption levels (see Table 3.3). This increase in

fertilizer consumption is mainly attributable to decreased prices, and

increased promotional efforts of the Government and industry, the Govern-

mental price support and procurement policies, and the extension of area

1/ In early seventies, prices of oil and other petroleum products were

oligopolistically increased significantly by the OPEC cotntries.

Increased prices of naphtha, natural gas, and other petroleum pro-

ducts accelerated 'the cost of production of fertilizer products.

When the world was engulfed in an atmosphere of energy crisis, there

came the forecasts, by the leading international organizations, of

shortages of fertilizers resulting into deficits in food proudction and

agricultural output in developing countries. A prediction of gloom and

starvation resulting from the shortages of fertilizers and food prompted

some densely populated developing countries like India, Indonesia and

the Philippines to nearly double their purchases of fertilizers in

1974-75 (see below). Large scale purchases by these countries further

accelerated the fertilizer prices in 1974 climaxing to peak levels in

June 1974. This atmosphere of anticipated 'shortages of fertilizers'

leading to steep increases in fertilizer prices is referred as the

'fertilizer crisis'.

Imports of Fertilizers(m tons of nutrients)

1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76

India 1.22 1.26 1.61 1.54

Indonesia 0.37 0.42 0.99 0.25

Philippines 0.10 0.15 0.37 0.15

Source: The Fertilizer Unit, Industrial Projects Department.

2/ See Section 5.3 below.

- 12 -

under irrigation and high-yielding varieties crops. 1/ The 1977-78 yearhas recorded a 26.5% increase in fertilizer consumption over 1976-77reaching an all-time high level of 4.3 m. tons.

3.1.1. Nutrientwise Consumption

Along with NPK consumption, the consumption of each nutrient alsoincreased significantly in absolute as well as in relative terms during thelast twenty five years. Nitrogen consumption increased at an anual rate of16.9 percent, while phosphate (P 0 ) and potash (K 0) consumption grew at a

an22O 2compound annual rate of 22.8 and 21.0 percent between 1952-53 and 1976-78.In absolute terms, nitrogen consumption increased from 57.8 thousand tonsin 1952-53 to 2,915 thousand tons in 1977-78. Similarly, phosphate andpotash consumption increased from 4.6 and 3.3 thousand tons in 1952-53 to868 and 505 thousand tons in 1977-78.

Although the end-point analysis of consumption of fertilizernutrients is useful, it is less revealing of the temporal variations infertilizer consumption. In Table 3.3, the entire priod is divided ittothree groups. Between 1952-53 and 1962-63, the total fertilizer consumptionincreased at an annual compound rate of 21.1 percent, whereas N, P205 andK20 consumption grew, respectively, at a rate of 19.1, 33.5 and 27.1. percentper annum. In the next ten-year period (1962-63 to 1972-73), the consump-tion of all nutrients increased at a lower rate compared to the previousdecade, although in each case the rate of growth of consumption was above 15percent. In the third period (1972-73 to 1977-78), the rates of growth ofnitrogen, phosphate and potash consumption are significantly low, viz.,9.6, 8.6 and 7.8 percent respectively.

Each fertilizer nutrient (N, P205 and K20) witnessed decline in1974-75 (Table 3.2) as a result of increased prices. Although the nitrogenconsumption in 1976-77 is significantly above the 1973-74 level, the phos-phate and potash consumption levels in 1976-77'were below the 1973-74levels. In 1977-78, the consumption of P205 and K20 surpassed the 1973-74levels.

3.1.2 Regional Distribution

Although the consumption of fertilizer nutrients showed continuousincreases over time till 1973-74 at the all India level, it did not showsimilar trends at the zonal level. In absolute terms, the fertilizerconsumption increased from 402.9, 154.1, 238.1, 657.1 and 223.8 thousandtons in 1968-69 to 1136, 421, 664, 1304 and 656 thousand tons in 1977-78 inthe Central East, North, South and West zones respectively. In relativeterms, the Central, East, North, South and West zones experienced an increase,respectively, of 182, 173, 179, 98 and 193 percent during 1968-69 and 1977-78period (Table 2). The lowest percentage increase in the fertilizer consump-tion in the South zone is, perhaps, due to its wider base in 1968-69 comparedto other zones.

1/ See Fertilizer News, July 1977.

- 13 -

Table 2

Zonewise Consumption of Fertilizers,1968-69 and 1977-78

N + P + K Consumption------… 000 tons------

Zone 1968-69 1977-78 % Increase

Central 402.9 1,136.0 182

East 154.1 421.0 173

North 238.1 664.0 179

South 657.1 1,304.0 98

West 223.8 656.0 193

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77, and Fertilizer News,

July 1978.

The regional distribution of fertilizer consumption shows wide

disparities among different zones (See Table 3.5). The North and South

zones accounted for approximately half of the fertilizer consumption in

the country between 1968-69 and 1975-76, whereas their share in net cropped

area was slightly more than one-fourth of the total cultivated land in

India. The main reason for their disproportionately larger share in fer-

tilizer consumption is the development of irrigation facilities and the

introduction of high-yielding varieties crops. Punjab, Haryana, Tamil Nadu

and Andhra Pradesh are the important states in these zones which have

experienced growth in their agricultural output through Green Revolution.

Furthermore, these states grow mainly wheat and rice for which improved

seeds were rapidly developed in the sixties. The Western zone accounts for

approximately 16-17 percent of total fertilizer consumption. Its share is

roughly equal to its contribution to net cultivated area in the country.

The Central and East zones, though account for more than 50% of the total

cultivated land, have consumed nearly one-third of the fertilizer nutrients

in the country between 1968-69 and 1975-76.

Between 1975-76 and 1976-77, the East, West and North zones

have maintained their share in fertilizer consumption whereas the South zone

has lost its share by 6.5 percentage points and the Central zone has in-

creased its share by 5.2 percentage points. Not only the South zone reduced

its relative share, but the quantity of fertilizer nutrients consumed also

- 14 -

decreased from 1,000.2 thousand tons in 1975-76 to 960.2 thousand tons in1976-77. The failure of monsoon rain is considered to be the main reasonfor the decline in fertilizer consumption in the South zone. I/

The statewise analysis of the share in fertilizer consumptionreveals further disparities (Table 3.6). Punjab and Haryana consumed15 percent of total fertilizers against their share of 6.5% in the cul-tivated land. If U.P., Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are included withPunjab and Haryana, their share increases to 56% in fertilizer consumptionwhereas these states account for little less than one-third of the cul-tivated land in the country. Larger states like Rajasthan, Maharashtra andMadhya Pradesh, which cultivate nearly 35% of total cropped land in thecountry, have relatively low levels of fertilizer consumption.

The district level analysis of the fertilizer consumption revealsfurther glaring regional disparities. Twenty of 380, i.e. 5%, districtsaccounted for about 23 percent of the fertilizer consumption in India in1974-75 (Table 3.7). On the other hand, 209 districts, i.e. more than halfof all the districts, consumed approximately 13% of the fertilizer nutrientsin the same year. Simiarly, the top 25% of the districts accounted forapproximately two-thirds of the fertilizer consumption in India, while theremaining 75 percent account for little less than one-third. Thus, theattempts to increase fertilizer consumption in India must devise a strategyto diffuse fertilizer nutrients in those districts where the present levelsof fertilizer use are minimal.

3.1.3 Per Hectare Fertilizer Consumption

The consumption of fertilizers per hectare of cropped land hasincreased from less than 2 kg. in 1960-61 to 26.2 kgs in 1977-78: a thir-teen-fold increase (Table 3.8). Like total consumption, per hectare use offertilizer has shown trend increase till 1973-74. In 1974-75, per hectareuse fertilizer nutrients decreased to 15.9 compared to 17.4 in the previousyear. In the following two years, it showed continuous increase. In spiteof this ten-fold increase in the last sixteen years, per hectare use offerilizer nutrients in India is very low compared to other developingcountries like China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Egypt, Israel, Indochina andPhilippines (See Table 3.8).

Table 3.9 presents the data on per hectare fertilizer use indifferent zones and states in India for two years, viz., 1976-77 and 1977-78. The North and East zones had, respectively, the highest and the lowestper hectare use in both years. All the zones registered an increase intheir per hectare fertilizer consumption in 1977-78 over 1976-77 levels.Among different states, Punjab tops the list in per hectare use of ferti-lizers. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are among other statesusing high doses of chemical fertilizers per hectare of cropped land. Nagaland,

1/ See Fertilizer News, July 1977, p. VII.

- 15 -

Assam and Tripura fall on the bottom ring of the fertilizer consumption

ladder. Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka show the medium levels of fer-

tilizer use. So far, none of the states have achieved the levels of fer-

tilizers consumption recommended by the agronomist and soil scientists to

achieve the maximum yields.

This analysis of the fertilizer use per hectare of cropped land

in India is less revealing of the fertilizer intensity in the Indian agri-

culture. The NCAER survey has revealed that only one-third of the cropped

land in India was fertilized in 1975-76, and the per hectare consumption of

fertilizer nutrients on the fertilized land was about 78 kgs. 1/ Interstate

variations in fertilizer consumption and fertilized land are presented in

Table 3.9A. The ratio of fertilized land to total cropped land varies

between 5% (Assam) and 76% (Punjab). The cultivating households in Kerala,

Punjab, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Haryana used fertilizers on nearly

one-half or more of their cultivated land. Orissa, Rajasthan, Madhya

Pradesh and Assam have one-fifth or less of the cultivated land as ferti-

lized. The fertilizer consumption per hectare of the fertilized land is

highest in Tamil Nadu (128.1 kgs) and lowest in Himachal Pradesh (28.4 kgs).

Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab and East Bengal are other states

applying about 90 or more kilograms of NPK nutrients on one hectare of

fertilized land. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Assam and Bihar

have relatively low levels (less than 50 kgs) of fertilizer consumption.

Although Punjab and Orissa have identical levels of fertilizer use, the

coverage (proportion of cultivated land being fertilized) is wide spread in

the former as compared to very narrow in the latter.

3.1.4. Seasonwise and Cropwise Consumption

In absolute as well as relative terms, a larger quantity of fer-

tilizer nutrients is used in Rabi (winter) season than in Kharif (monsoon)

season (Table 3.10). Between 1968-69 and 1977-78, the proportion of fer-

tilizers consumed in Rabi season has varied between 50 and 65 percent. The

main reason for this concentration in Rabi season is that wheat is a Rabi

crop in India for which various varieties of fertilizer-intensive and yield-

raising improved seeds have been developed and adopted by the farmers.

Moreover, rice is also grown in this season. Since winter crops are generally

grown in assured water supply areas, and the availability of water reduces

the risks involved in using chemical fertilizers, the farmers prefer to use

relatively more fertilizers in winter than in monsoon season. Except 1974-75,

the fertilizer consumption in Rabi seasons has increased uninterruptedly

between 1968-69 and 1977-78. On the other hand, the fertilizer consumption

in Kharif (monsoon) season shows temporal fluctuations. Having increased

continuously between 1968-69 and 1971-72, the fertilizer consumption in

Kharif season declined in 1972-73, increased and attained a maximum in

1973-74. The next two years witnessed continuous declines, followed by two

years of increase. Although the fertilizer consumption increased by 181

thousand tons in 1976-77 over the 1975-76 level, yet it was below the 1973-74

1/ See NCAER, Fertilizer Demand Study: An Interim Report.

- 16 -

record level. Droughts in Central and Western India in 1972-73 and the latearrivals of monsoon rain in 1974-75 and 1975-76 along with increased ferti-lizer prices are responsible for these annual variations in fertilizerconsumption in Kharif season. The proportion of the fertilizer nutrientsconsumed in this season has varied between 35 and 50 percent. In 1977-78,fertilizer consumption in Kharif increased to 1,522 thousand tons.

No detailed data are available for cropwise distribution of fer-tilizer consumption in India. The preliminary calculations done by NCAERsuggest that nearly 40 percent of total fertilizer nutrients consumed inIndia are accounted for by rice, 24 percent by wheat, and 9% by sugarcane(Table 3.11). Thus, a little less than three fourths of the fertilizernutrients are used for these three crops.

3.1.5. N:P:K Ratio

Table 3.12 provides the information about nutrient ratios (N3P:K)in India for different years. Although there is no clear trend, the nitrogenconsumption per unit of phosphate had been fluctuating and declining overtime. In early fifties, the Indian farmers were using 7 to 10 times of N perunit of P 205. In the late sixties and early seventies, this ratio wasbetween 3 and 4 units of N per unit of P2 0,. Having declined to 2.8 in1973-74, the N:P ratio increased to 3.7 and 4.6 in the following two years.The ratio of K20 per unit of P205 was on the average close to 0.5 in thesixties and early seventies.

The N:P:K ratio was 4.6:1:0.6 in 1975-76, 3.9:1.05 in 1976-77, and3.4:1:0.6 in 1977-78. To attain balance in fertilizer use, India shouldconcentrate her efforts on increasing the consumption of phosphate andpotash. Farm level studies have also indicated that output per hectare ismaximum when all the three nutrients are used in balanced proportions. 1/

The departure from the balanced fertilization norm is much severeat the zonal and state levels than at the national level. The N:P ratio wasabove 5 in the Central, East and North zones and was close to 4 in the Southand West zones in 1975-76 (Table 3.13). The N:P ratio decreased in a mono-tonic fashion for all the zones in 1976-77. It was 4.8 in East and Centralzones, close to 3.5 in the North and South and less than 3 in the West. TheK:P ratio varied between 0.1 in South zone to 0.8 in the West in 1975-76 andshowed similar fluctuations in 1976-77. Over time, this ratio was stable forthe Central, East, and North zones and unstable for the South and Westzones.

The wider variations in the state level N:P:K ratios are consistentwith the law of large number implying lesser variations in macro units

1/ See Bhumbla, "Balanced Fertilization", 1976.

- 17 -

compared to their micro-constituents. The N:P ratio fluctuated between 1.6

(Goa) and 10.4 (Haryana) in 1975-76 and between 1.8 (Meghalaya) and 7.4

(Haryana) in 1976-77. Like the zonal N:P ratios, the state N:P ratios do not

reveal any consistent pattern of change over time: in some states it has

increased while in others it decreased. The K:P ratios, like the N:P ratios,

are equally unstable among states as well as over time. Kerala, Karnataka,

and West Bengal appear to have reasonable N:P:K ratios, while Punjab, Haryana

and U.P. are using proportionately more of N, and less of P and K.

3.1.6 Factors Influencing Fertilizer Consumption in India

Unless there is a systematic study based on a behavioral model

identifying the critical variables influencing fertilizer consumption over

time as well as over space, any analysis of factors affecting fertilizer

consumption in India should be treated as suggestive, rather than as diag-

nostic and prescriptive. The earlier analysis of fertilizer consumption has

been rather too aggregative. Moreover the data on fertilizer consumption are

available only after 1961-62. Before 1961-62, the information available

indicates the distribution of fertilizer nutrients from the Central Fer-

tilizer Pool and manufacturers to various distributing agencies (public

and privates) in different states. Although a large part of these distri-

buted fertilizers must have gone for consumption, the quantity of fertilizer

use is still uncertain. Hence, in Table 3, the annual variation in fer-

tilizer consumption is calculated from 1961-62 onward. The annual percentage

increases were of high magnitude, ranging between 20% and 49%, during 1961-62

and 1967-68 period except for 1965-66 drought year. From 1967-68 to 1971-72,

the annual fertilizer consumption varied between 13 and 18 percent. These

percentage changes are significantly lower compared to the 1961-62 to 1967-68

period, although in absolute terms, the fertilizer consumption increased by

200-400 thousand tons per annum. The next two years witnessed rather modest

increases (3 to 4 percent) while the 1974-75 year registered a 9% decrease

in the consumption of fertilizer nutrients due to steep increases in fer-

tilizer prices. After 1974-75, fertilizer consumption started increasing due

to lowered prices, effective support prices and procurement policies, and

extension efforts by the government as well as by the manufacturers.

Studies by Gunvant Desai 1/ of Indian Institute of Management,

Ahmedabad and by A. Seshan 2/ of the Reserve Bank of India indicate that,

except 1974-75 when prices of fertilizer products nearly doubled, the price

environment prevailing in the sixties and seventies was not very inhibitive,

and therefore, any manipulation of prices alone will not promote fertilizer

consumption, although stability of fertilizer prices is considered very

crucial for further growth in fertilizer consumption. That is, the stable

price environment plays a permissive, as against promotive, role in enhancing

fertilizer use.

1/ Gunvant M. Desai, "A Critical Review of Fertilizer consumption after

1974-75 and Prospects for Future Growth, Fertilizer News, July 1978.

2/ A Seshan, "Fertilizer Consumption in Indian Agriculture," Occasional

Papers, Vol. 1, issue No. 1, Reserve Bank of India, Bombay, 1976.

- 18 -

Table 3

Fertilizer Consumption, 1961-62 to 1977-78

Consumption Annual Change Annual Change('000 tons) ('000 tons) (percent)

Year N P K Total N P K Total N P K Total(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ) ( (8) (9) (10) (11) (T2) (13)

1961-62 250 60 28 338 - - - - - -1962-63 333 83 36 452 83 23 8 114 33 33 38 341963-64 377 116 51 544 44 33 15 92 13 40 42 201964-65 555 149 69 773 178 33 18 269 47 28 35 491965-66 575 133 77 785 20 -16 8 12 4 -11 12 2

1966-67 738 249 114 .1,101 163 116 37 316 28 87 48 401967-68 1,035 335 170 1,540 297 86 56 439 40 35 49 401968-69 1,209 382 170 1,761 174 47 0 221 13 14 0 i41969-70 1,356 416 210 1,982 147 34 40 221 12 9 24 131970-71 1,479 541 236 2,256 123 125 26 274 9 30 12 14

1971-72 1,798 558 300 2,656 319 17 64 400 22 3 27 181972-73 1,839 581 348 2,768 41 23 48 112 2 4 26 41973-74 1,829 650 360 2,839 -10 69 12 71 -1 12 3 31974-75 1,766 471 336 2,573 -63 -179 -24 -266 -3 -28 -7 -91975-76 2,149 467 278 2,894 383 -4 -58 321 22 -1 -17 121976-77 2,457 635 319 3,411 308 168 41 517 14 36 15 181977-78 2,915 868 505 4,287 458 233 186 876 19 37 59 27

Source: Desai, op cit, for 1961-62 to 1976-77 period, and Fertilizer NewsJuly 1978 for 1977-78.

- 19 -

Other factors considered crucial for fertilizer promotion are

irrigation facilities, diffusion of HYVs and availability of credit along

with fertilizers. The NCAER survey of about 22,000 cultivating households

has revealed that approximately 55% of the cultivating households were not

using fertilizers in 1975-76, and the lack of irrigation facilities was the

main reason for 48% of them for not using fertilizers. Also, among the

fertilizer users, the application rates of fertilizer nutrients differed

significantly among those who have irrigation facilities compared to those

who do not (see Table 4). The per hectare consumption of fertilizer

nutrients was 55.3 kgs on irrigated farms as against 31.8 kgs on unirrigated

farms growing 'traditional' varieties of wheat. For high-yielding varieties

of wheat, the irrigated farms were using 85.5 kgs of fertilizers compared to

50.2 kgs by their non-irrigated counterparts. For paddy, sugarcane and

cotton also, the application rates are higher by a margin of 14 to 104

percent on irrigated farms compared to unirrigated farms. Furthermore, 86%

of the total fertilizer consumption in 1975-76 was on irrigated farms.

The district-wise and state-wise analyses of fertilizer consumption

also reveal irrigation as an important factor influencing the interstate

and interdistrict variation in fertilizer use. Thus, the availability oE

irrigation facilities appears as an important factor influencing fertilizer

consumption, and therefore, the creation of an additional 15 million hectares

of irrigation facilities in the new plan (1978-83) should stimulate fertilizer

consumption in the next five years.

Along with irrigation should come the diffusion of high-yielding

variaties of seeds on a wider scale. Since the HYVs are water intensive as

well as fertilizer responsive, the increased use of these seeds will stimu-

late the demand for fertilizer nutrients. In 1975-76, fertilizer use was

85.5 kg per hectare for HYVs as against 55.3 kg for traditional varieties of

wheat on irrigated farms (see table 4). By using the data on fertilizer

consumption, prices and area under HYVs for 1961-62 to 1971-72 period,

Dharam Narain has estimated that 1% increase in area under HYVs increased the

fertilizer consumption by 11%. 1/ Furthermore, the technological change

(HYVs) explained approximately 50% of the total variation in fertilizer

consumption as against 18% by the price variations during this period. Thus,

extension efforts in spreading the high yielding varieties on wider areas,

and the development of new varieties for dry farming regions will accelerate

fertilizer consumption.

The increased demand for HYVs and fertilizers induced by irrigation

development will be materialized if adequate resources are available with the

farmers. The NCAER survey has indicated nearly one-fifth of the cultivating

households identified credit as an important constraint restricting the

1/ Dharm Narain, "Growth of Productivity in Indian Agriculture", Occasional

Paper No. 93, Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell University,

Ithaca, N. Y. June 1976.

- 20 -

Table 4

All India Fertilizer Consumption (N+P+K) bySeed Variety and Irrigation, 1975-76

HYV Traditional AllRatio of Ratio of Varia-Irrigated/ Irrigated/ ties

Crop Irrigated Unirrigated Unirrigated Irrigated Unirrigated Unirrigated

(a) Per hectare Consumption (kgs)

Wheat 85.5 50.2 1.70 55.3 31.8 1.74 75.9

PaddyAutumn 105.3 92.4 1.14 82.0 45.5 1.80 90.6Winter 96.9 53.4 1.81 73.5 40.4 1.82 69.1Summer 146.8 90.8 1.62 103.3 95.2 1.1 134.0

Sugarcane 153.6 67.1 2.28 191.8 93.7 2.04 169.3

Cotton 113.1 82.5 1.40 71.4 45.8 1.6 89.4

(b) Percentage Distribution

All crops 53.6 3.4 - 32.4 10.6 - 100.0

Source: NCAER, Fertilizer Demand Study, 1975-76.

- 21 -

extensive as well as intensive use of fertilizers. As the fertilizer con-

sumption spreads to small and marginal farmers, the need for credit faci-

lities will accelerate. Hence, adequate provisions must be made for in-

creased funds through cooperatives, banks and other institutional agencies.

The development of irrigation and credit facilities along with

the diffusion of HYVs will help in promoting fertilizer use only if ferti-

lizer nutrients are available in adequate quantities at the village level.

Many a times, the shortages of fertilizer nutrients are identified as a

factor responsible for slower growth. The state officials in Maharashtra and

Rajasthan complained of inadequate supplies restricting the increased use of

fertilizer nutrients. A time series analysis of consumption and availability

of fertilizer nutrients during the sixties and seventies by Gunvant Desai 1/

reveals that decrease in closing stocks (as % of consumption) is partly

responsible for slower growth in fertilizer consumption during early seven-

ties (see table 5). However, a careful analysis of the data in Table 5

does not support this contention. The correlation coefficient between annual

growth rate and closing stock is only 0.43. Only in 1973-74 the closing

stocks decreased to 5% of the total consumption of nitrogen. Moreover, it is

not clear whether India should keep reserves in excess of 10% of the total

consumption as an inventory. It is obvious that fertilizers must be there

(in the villages) in order to use them. However, fertilizers were not iTI

inadequate supplies in the past at the aggregate level. It is possible that

these fertilizers were not adequately distributed among the villagers, and

also, not at the right time. Given that supplies are adequate to meet

current demand, an inequitable and untimely distribution of them might create

artificial shortages. Hence, the development of retail networks and transpor-

tation facilities should help in widening the narrow base of fertilizer

consumption. The success of the Intensive Fertilizer Promotion Programs, in

selected districts, along with decreases in prices in 1975-76 and 1976-77

indicates that the extension efforts and distribution facilities should

receive as much priority as irrigation, credit and HYVs in promoting fer-

tilizer consumption. M6reover, as nearly two-thirds of the fertilizer

consumption is accounted for by 25% (of 380) districts, and as these dis-

tricts are reaching near saturation levels in fertilizer consumption, further

growth in fertilizer consumption has to come about by widening the base, i.e.

by diffusing and distributing fertilizers to low-consumption districts

through the development of the fertilizer logistics.

3.2. Fertilizer Consumption Forecasts

Forecasting the demand for fertilizer nutrients is crucial not

only for the agricultural sector because of the latter's dependence on

fertilizers for future development but also for the correct investment

decisions in the fertilizer industry itself. Incorrect forecasts might

result either in shortages for the farmers or-in excess capacity and low

profits for the producers. Inspite of the critical role played by the future

projections, a suitable forecasting methodology based on realistic behavioral

assumptions is still lacking.

1/ op cit.

- 22 -

Table 5

Availability and Consumption of Nitrogen,1962-63 to 1976-77

Closing Stock asAnnual Total' percentage of

Opening Change Domestic Net Availa- Consump- Closing Consump- Availa-Year Stock % Produce Import bility tion Stock tion bility(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

---------------------------------'000 ton---------------

1962-63 105 33 194 244 543 333 210 63 39

1963-64 210 13 219 228 657 377 280 74 43

1964-65 280 41 243 232 755 555 200 36 26

1965-66 200 4 238 326 764 575 189 33 25

1966-67 189 28 309 632 1,130 738 392 53 35

1967-68 392 40 403 867 1,662 1,035 627 61 38

1968-69 627 13 563 844 2,034 1,209 825 68 41

1969-70 825 12 731 667 2,223 1,356 867 64 39

1970-71 867 9 833 477 2,177 1,479 698 47 32

1971-72 698 22 949 481 2,128 1,798 330 18 16

1972-73 330 2 1,055 665 2,050 1,839 211 11 10

1973-74 211 1 1,050 659 1,920 1,829 91 5 5

1974-75 91 3 1,187 884 2,162 1,766 396 22 18

1975-76 396 22 1,508 996 2,900 2,149 751 35 26

1976-77 751 14 1,857 750 3,358 2,457 901 37 27

Source: Derived from Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77, p. 182, andReport of the Committee on Fertilizers, Ministry of Food andAgriculture, Government of India, New Delhi, 1965, P. 154.Reproduced from Desai's paper (op cit).

- 23 -

Various agencies, like the Fertilizer Association of India, The

World Bank, The Planning Commission, and The National Commission on Agri-

culture, and the Ministry of Agriculture have projected the consumption of

fertilizer nutrients by using different approaches but none of them has

developed a behavioral model for the fertilizer sector.

Table 3.15 presents forecasts for 1978-79 by various authors.

The total NPK consumption forecasts vary between 4.15 and 8.00 million tons.

Similarly, there are wide variations among various forecasts for different

nutrients. Donde and Brown estimated a demand of 4 - 5.15 million tons for N

and 2 - 2.62 m tons for P 0 in 1978-79. Against this, the Parikh-Srinvisasan

optimal requirements for A and P 205 are, respectively, 2.17 and 1.69 million

tons. For potassic fertilizers, K 20, the Planning Commission projections are

lowest while the Parikh-Srinivasan estimates are highest. The National

Commission on Agriculture has provided three sets of demand forecasts based

on different assumptions 1/ for 1978-79. These forecasts are middle range

projections compared with other estimates in Table 3.15.

Now, we discuss the underlying assumptions and methodologies of

these projections in detail.

3.2.1. The Donde-Brown Forecasts

W. B. Donde of the Government of India, and Dorris D. Brown of the

World Bank have developed a regression model to predict future demand for

fertilizer nutrients. They specified two sets of equations. In one set, the

total quantity consumed of nitrogen and phosphate was regressed on the rupee

expenditures on fertilizers in the previous year (Ft 1) irrigated and un-

irrigated area under Kharif and Rabi crops. In the second set of equations,

the rupee value of crop output per hectare in the previous year (G 1) was

added to other independent variables of the first set. The inclusion of

F is justified, by the authors, on the basis of the 'learning curve't- 1

concept.

The districts were 'divided into ten groups on the basis of cropping

pattern, rainfall and per hectare fertilizer consumption. Both sets of

equations were estimated by using the pooled cross-section and time-series

district data for each group, but the results of the first set of equations

were used in the projections for two reasons: first, the estimated coef-

ficients of C were not statistically significant; and second, the pre-

dictive power oi the second equation was generally lower than that of the

first equation. Table 3.16 presents their estimated equations for different

groups.

By using the. ten year growth rates of Ft i irrigated and un-

irrigated area under Kharif and Rabi seasons, the future values of these

explanatory variables were projected. The projected values of these

1/ See below for details.

- 24 -

variables along with their estimated regression coefficients were used toforecast the demand for fertilizers (N+P 20 ). These projections are termedas Projection II (in Table 3.17) by the authors. Their Projection I set isbased on a simple extrapolation of the past-growth rate of fertilizer con-sumption between 1959-60 and 1968-69, which was 28.0%, applied to futureyears. The third set of projections is based on the subjective judgments ofthe authors in adjusting the estimated coefficients and the observed growthrates of independent variables for each district and every state in thecountry. The national aggregates were derived by summing up the state levelprojections for N and P 0 . Between 1973-74 and 1978-79, a compound growthrate of 12.0 was assumea to make projections for 1978-79.

Predicting future accurately is the most difficult job confrontingthe human mind. Different attempts try to minimize the prediction errorsin their projections. If one considers a 5 percent prediction error as aplausible and tolerable error, the Donde-Brown model does not perform well atthe state as well as national level for 1973-74 (tables 3.17 & 3.18). Since1973-74 was a normal year, an error of more than 5 percent in the forecastsfor this year would cast doubts on the validity of the model as a tool forpredicting the future consumption of fertilizer nutrients.

Similarly, the Donde-Brown forecasts for 1978-79 are unrealisti-cally very high. In 1977-78, the consumption of nitrogen and phosphateis, respectively, 2.9 and 0.87 million tons. One has to assume an unrealis-tically high growth rate of 35 to 100 percent between 1977-78 and 1978-79, toattain the lower bounds of the Donde-Brown forecasts.

The model has ignored some of the important economic variablesinfluencing fertilizer consumption. The relationship between fertilizerprices and quantity consumed is conspicuously absent. Moreover, the com-plementarities between fertilizers and HYVs are inadequately specified.Econometrically, the use of ordinary least squares method yields inconsistentresults when cross-section and time-series data are used in estimating theparameters. 1/

A properly specified and correctly estimated behavioral model offertilizer consumption may prove a useful tool for forecasting the demand forfertilizer nutrient.

3.2.2. The Planning Commission, and the Ministry of Agriculture andIrrigation Projections.

The Planning Commission of India has projected the demand forfertilizers in 1978-79 as 8 million tons in the Draft: 5th Five Year Plan.

1/ Balestra, P. and M. Nerlov, "Pooling Cross-Section and Time Series Datain the Estimation of a Dynamic Model: The Demand for Natural Gas,"Econometrica, Vol. 39, No. 4, (1966), pp. 585-612.

- 25 -

Since these forecasts were made before the increase in prices of all nutrients

resulting from the global energy as well as fertilizer crisis, the Planning

Commission has revised its projection in 1976 when the Fifth Plan was finalized.

The new projections indicate a future demand of 4.8 million tons in 1978-79

and 8 million tons in 1983-84 (Table 3.15). The basis for these projections

is stated by the Planning Commission as follows:

"For projecting fertilizer demand, a careful attempt has been

made to isolate the expansion that would be necessitated on

account of increased emphasis on irrigation facilities and on

the spread of new technology, particularly to new areas.

Studies made indicate that fertilizer use is highly sensitive

to the availability of irrigation facilities, as also to

the spread of new technology. These shift factors have

been taken into account as also a moderate increase in dosages,

under each category of land. Such analysis has been conducted

crop by crop and total fertilizer requirements estimated." 1/

As the consumption of fertilizer nutrients in 1977-78 is estimated

around 4.3 million tons, a target of 4.8 million tons could be achieved in

1978-79. However, as the new Five Year Plan (1978-83) has replaced the last

year of the 5th Plan, a target consumption of 7.8 million tons of NPK nut-

rients is aimed for 1982-83, implying an increase of 3.5 million tons over

1977-78 level. Since the fertilizer consumption has increased by 18% in

1976-77 over 1975-76 level, and by 26% in 1977-78 over the previous year's

level, an annual compound growth rate of 13% implied by the plan targets

should not be difficult to achieve over the next five years.

The Working Group on the Development of the Fertilizer Industry

for the period 1978-79 to 1987-88, headed by Mr. S.M. Kelkar, Joint Secretary,

Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers has made projections of demand for N

and P 05 by assuming a compound growth rateof, respectively, 8% and 12% after

1983-4 on the basis of the Planning Commission's projections. The projected

demand for N and P205 in 1987-88 is, respectively, 7.075 and 2.50 million

tons (Table 3.18A).

The Ministry of Agriculture has also projected a demand of 5.0

to 5.2 million tons of nitrogen and 1.67 to 1.72 m tons of P. 0 for 1982-83.

Their projections for 1987-88 for N and P 20 are, respectiveiy, 6.12 to 6.25

and 2.45 to 2.50 million tons.

3.2.3 The Parikh-Srinivasan Optimum Requirements

Kirit S. Parikh and T. N. Srinivasan of the Indian Statistical

Institute, New Delhi have developed a quadratic programming model to estimate the

requirement of fertilizer nutrients in such a way that the total cost of

1/ Planning Commission: Fifth Five Year Plan, 1974-79. Government of

India, New Delhi, 1976. pp. 28.

- 26 -

fertilizers to produce a given level of agricultural output is minimized. 1/For the purposes of this model, the country was divided into 57 agro-climaticzones based on soil characteristics, rainfall, cropping pattern etc. Foreach zone, the fertilizer response functions for differenttypes of local andhigh yielding varieties of wheat, barley, maize, rice, jowar, bajra, cotton,groundnut and gram were estimated by using the data available from the SimpleFertilizer Trials on the cultivator's farms in 1968-69, 1969-70, and 1970-71.The dominant variety, namely, the variety whose response curve lay above that of allothers, was chosen for each crop in every zone. The dominant variety res-ponse functions were scaled for each state to produce the 1970-71 level ofnitrogen consumption given the actual consumption of P 205 and K20 in thatyear.

Using the Fifth Plan (Draft) targets for agricultural output,area sown, area irrigated and area under high yielding varieties for eachcrop in each state as given, the model estimated the optimum requirements ofN, P 20 and K 20 as 2.17, 1.69 and 2.60 million tons (see Table 3.19) to meetthese Largets at a minimum cost of fertilizers. Because of the diminishingreturns to fertilizer nutrients and relatively lower prices of K20, the modelsuggests that higher amounts of P 205 and K 20 relative to N would be optimum.

In one variant of the model, when the ratios of P 0 and K 20 toN are fixed at the Fifth Plan (Draft) level for each crop, {he optimum re-quirements of N, P205 and K20 change respectively to 4.3, 1.7 and 1.1 milliontons. In another version, when these ratios are fixed at the 1971-72 observedlevels for all crops, the optimum requirements become 4.6 m tons of N, 1.5 mtons of P 205 and 0.8 million tons of K 0. The total requirements of NPKin these versions of the model are 6.49, 7.08 and 6.85 million tons offertilizer nutrients.

Since the data used in estimating the response functions fordifferent varieties of various crops do not represent the conditions pre-vailing on an average cultivator's farm in India, the optimum requirementsmight differ from actually realiseables due to imperfect knowledge. However,this model does indicate an important area in which the efforts to increasefertilizer consumption may be concentrated. That area is: diffusion ofinformation and knowledge among the farmers about the dominant varieties ofdifferent crops.

3.2.4 The National Commission on Agriculture Projections

The National Commission on Agriculture has estimated the futuredemand for fertilizers by using several different methods (Table 3.20).Various estimates indicate the consumption of fertilizers between 4 and 5million tons of nutrients for 1978-79 and approximately six million tons for1984-85.

1/ Kirit S. Parikh and T. N. Srinivasan, Optimum Requirement of Fertilizersfor the Fifth Plan Period. Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi,1974.

- 27 -

Since the plants require nitrogen, phosphate, potash and othermicro nutrients for their growth, the depletion of these nutrients from thesoil requires their replenishment. The Commission estimated that the food-grain and non-foodgrain crops had removed 12.38 million tons of N, P 05 andK 0 from the soil in 1970-71. Against this, the total consumption orchemical fertilizers was 2.26 m tons in that year. Hence, 9.12 milliontons of nutrients were supplied by the soil. Similarly in 1960-61, thesupply of nutrients by the soil was approximately 9.26 million tons. Thus,the capacity of the soil to provide nutrients for crop production can beassumed approximately equal to 9 million tons. The Commission furtherestimated that given the targets of crop output for 1978-79 and 1980-81, thesoil will be depleted of its nutrients to the extent of 16.35 and 18.12million tons in these years (see Table 3.21). Since a part of these nut-rients will be provided by the crop residue, legume, alagae and bacteria, theentire amount of nutrients removed need not be replenished. During 1969-71period, the fertilizers added to supply nutrients constituted on an averageabout 55% N, 45% P 0 and 5% K 0, and 25% of total N + P 0 + K 0 removed by

cros. erapsdu~to t2 o 2 5 2crops. Perhaps,due to scarcity of fertilizers, the observed demand may beless than the optimum. By assuming that 60% N, 50% P 205 and 10% K 20 of the

quantities of each removed from the soil will be demanded in the late se-venties and early eighties, the Commission projected a total demand of 5.28million tons in 1978-79, and 6.0 million tons in 1984-85. The projection of6 million tons of demand for fertilizers in 1984-85 by the nutrient removalmethod equals the projections based on an extrapolation of a linear trend offertilizer consumption between 1967-68 and 1973-74. However, these twomethods yield significantly different results for 1978-79 (see Table 3.20).

Another method used by the Commission to estimate the demand forfertilizers is based on the recommendations of the soil scientists andagronomists about the optimum dose of N, P 05 and K20 for different crops.By applying the recommended doses of ferti izers to the area under HYVs andlocal varieties of seeds as well as area under irrigation and dry farming forimportant food and nonfood crops, the Commission estimated a total demand of8.50 m tons of nutrients in 1978-79 (Table 3.22). Since this figure appearedunrealistically high, and the observed doses were significantly below therecommended ones in 1973-74, the Commission adjusted the estimates of thismethod by uniformly scaling them down to 55 percent for each nutrient. Thus,the adjusted demand for fertilizers in 1978-79 is 4.67 million tons (seeTable 3.20).

Finally, the Commission estimated the marginal product of ferti-lizers by linearly regressing the foodgrains output on the consumption offertilizers between 1966-67 and 1971-72. The slope of the regression line,i.e., increase in crop output per unit of fertilizer consumption, was esti-mated as 17 for foodgrain crops and 23 for all crops. Since this approachoverestimates the contribution of fertilizers to total crop output, theCommission selected a value of 13, and projected the demand for fertilizersas 4.84 million tons in 1978-79.

- 28 -

3.2.5. The FAI Projections

The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi has tried to fore-cast the demand for fertilizers by fitting a quadratic equation to the timeseries of fertilizer consumption between 1961-62 and 1976-77, (except 1972-73,73-74 and 1974-75 for N, and 1974-75 and 1975-76 both for P 20 and K 2o).Table 3.23 presents the projections of fertilizer demand for ?976-77 to1987-88 period by this method along with actual consumption for 1976-77 and1977-78. A comparison of the projections with actuals for 1976-77 and1977-78 indicate a very close approximation for total (NPK) consumption withan error of 4 to 9 percent. It is rather interesting to note this methodoverestimated the consumption needs in 1976-77 whereas in 1977-78, it con-sistantly underestimated. Since these are only two observations, it is hardto evaluate the performance of the model. Although model does not haveparameters which can be modified and corrected for changes in exogencousconditions, it is a simple, but elegant, model to provide reasonable fore-casts of future fertilizer consumption levels.

The FAI projections for 1982-83 are 7.2 million tons which areconsiderably below the targets set by the Planning Commission.

3.2.6 The NCAER Projections

The National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi iscurrently engaged in making projections for fertilizer nutrients by using(i) cropping pattern method, and (ii) econometric method. The croppingpattern method derives the forecasts of fertilizer nutrients by using theprojected fertilized area under different crops by the Ministry of Agricul-ture and the average per hectare consumption of fertilizer nutrients on thefertilized land for 1975-76 and 1976-77 (available from the survey of 22,000cultivating households). Some surveys by the Indian Council of AgriculturalResearch have revealed that fertilizer consumption per hectare of the fer-tilized land (i.e. fertilizer intensity) has remained constant over time.Consequently, the increased fertilizer consumption over time has come throughthe extension of cultivated land under fertilizers as well as the diffusionof fertilizers among small and medium farmers. The NCAER surveys haverevealed that nearly 55% of the cultivating households do not use fertilizerswhile the unfertilized land constitutes nearly 67% of the total cultivatedland. On the other hand, the per hectare consumption of fertilizer on fer-tilized land is reasonably high - about 78 kgs for the country as a whole.Assuming that the observed levels of per hectare fertilizer use in 1975-76and 1976-77 will remain stable, while the future efforts in fertilizerpromotion may result into extended area under fertilizers, one might forecastthe fertilizer consumption by multiplying the 1975-76 and 1976-77 average perhectare consumption by the projected fertilized areas under different crops.The Council has not explained the methodology underlying the projections offertilized area under different crops.

Another method used by the Council is based on the microeconomictheory of production function and profit maximization. In order to maximizeprofits, a farmer will use fertilizers in such a way that at margin the cost

- 29 -

of an additional kilogram of fertilizer nutrients is equal to the value of

additional crop output derived from that extra kilogram of fertilizer nutri-

ents. Furthermore, the use of fertilizers also depends on the availability

of water (irrigation) and the use of technology (HYVs or traditional seeds).

This kind of behavioral model, where fertilizer consumption depends

on fertilizer prices, irrigation ratio and areas under HYVs, is estimated by

using regression analysis. The estimated coefficients of control variables

(prices, irrigation etc) are used in making forecasts. Since the model can

be estimated by using time-series as well as cross-section data, it is not

clear what sort of data would be used by the Council. However, this being a

behavioral model, it would allow the planners to make plausible forecasts by

manipulating the control variables.

As the Council has not made forecasts by using these approaches,

the relative performance of these can not be evaluated ex-ante. It is

expected that the Council will make the forecasts of fertilizer nutrients

available sometime in near future.

4.0 Capacity, Production, Imports and Raw Materials

Fertilizer consumption in India had grown rapidly in the past and

is likely to grow severalfold in the future. Increased demand for any

commodity in general, and that for fertilizer nutrients in particular, can be

met either by imports or by indigenous production. Availability of foreign

exchange determines the capacity to import. Scarcity of foreign exchange in

India prompted the planners to build adequate capacity for fertilizer produc-

tion. Although single super-phosphate (SSP) was manufactured in India as

early as 1906, and ammonium sulphate in 1933, the large scale production of

nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers started only after 1947, and spurted

in the sixties and seventies.

In 1950, India had an installed capacity of 37.2 thousand tons:

16.7 thousand tons of N and 20.5 thousand tons of P 205. Fertilizers and

Chemicals Travancore Ltd, Alwaye (Kerala) was the only large factory with a

capacity of 10 thousand tons of N and 8.5 thousand tons of P205. The Sindri

Fertilizers and Chemicals Ltd started a factory at Sindri, Bihar, in 1951 to

produce ammonium sulphate. Expansion of other public projects in the fifties

increased the installed capacity to 162.2 thousand tons of N and 96 thousand

tons of P205 in 1960. Efforts by the Government of India during the Third

Plan and thereafter, and the investment by the producers during late sixties

and early seventies enhanced the installed capacity by nearly twenty-fold for

N and ten-folds for P205 between 1960 and 1976. By 1982-83, the installed

capacity for N and P205 is likely to be 6.11 and 1.43 million tons respec-

tively.

- 30 -

Like installed capacity, fertilizer production also witnessedseveralfold increases in the sixties and seventies. In 1952-53, approxi-mately 53 thousand tons of N and 7.4 thousand tons of P 205 were produced.Against this, nitrogen output increased to 2.00 million tons in 1977-78,while P205 production reached 670 thousand tons in the same year. In thenext five years (1978-83), output of N and P205 is expected to double to4.1 and 1.125 m tons respectively. 1/

In the fifties and early sixties, ammonium sulphate and singlesuper-phosphate were the main nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers producedin the country. Urea and complex fertilizers have occupied the dominantposition in the seventies. Approximately, three quarters of the nitrogen wasproduced in the form of urea in 1976-77. Similarly, a little less thanthree-fourths of P 205 was manufactured in the form of NP/NPK complex fer-tilizers.

In the field of raw materials, naphtha occupies an importantplace in nitrogen production, accounting for about 70% of the installedcapacity. The discoveries of petroleum crude at Bombay High will increasethe use of natural gas as a feedstock in the near future. Also, India isconstructing two plants using coal as a feedstock for nitrogen production.On the other hand, the discoveries of rockphosphate deposits in Udaipur(Rajasthan), Jhabua (M.P.), Mussori (U.P.), and Purulia (West Bengal) dis-tricts might save foreign exchange used in importing rockphosphate for P 205production, and enhance P 205 output in the eighties.

Approximately one-fourth of the nitrogenous and phosphatic fertil-izer requirements are met through imports. As there are no known reservesof potash in India, all of the potassic fertilizers requirements are, andwill continue to be, met through imports.

4.1 Capacity

4.1.1 Installed Capacity

Although fertilizer production was started in India in 1906 (SSP)and 1933 (ammonium sulphate) by using the by-product COG of the steel plant(TISCO), the total installed capacity was insignificantly small. In December1950, India had an installed capacity of 37.2 thousand tons: 16.7 thousandtons of N and 20.5 thousand tons of P205. Fertilizers and Chemicals Travan-core Ltd., Alwaye (Kerala) was the only large factory with a capacity of10,000 tons of N and 8,500 tons of P205 in 1950. It used wood-gasificationprocess to produce ammonia.

1/ See Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, p. 196.

- 31 -

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Figure 4.1: Location of Fertiliser Factories

(As on October 1, 1977)

Note: See Table 4.6 for details.

- 32 -

In 1951, another factory was set up in Sindri, Bihar to produceammonium sulphate by using coke and gypsum. During the first two Five YearPlans, the installed capacity increased to 248 thousand tons of N and 120thousand tons of P 0 . This was achieved by expanding the installed capaci-ties of three public sector and one private sector factories. Productdiversification was also achieved during this decade on the recommendationsof the Mukherjee Committee and the Ranganathan Delegation. Urea, nitropho-sphate, CAN and ammonium phosphate were introduced into the planning streamin the late fifties.

The need to increase food production and reduce dependence onimports of food and fertilizers motivated the Government to increase in-stalled capacity and production of fertilizers during the Third Five YearPlan. As a result of the conscious efforts by the Government of India, theinstalled capacity increased to 525 thousand tons of N and 264 thousand tonsof P 0 by September 1966 (Table 4.1). Major projects taken up during theThird Plan were FCI's 1/ Trombay unit (producing urea and nitrophosphate),Neyveli (Tamil Nadu) unit, Rourkela (Hindustan Steel Ltd.) unit for CAN fromcoke-oven-gas of steel plant and the expansion of FACT 2/, Alwaye (Kerala) toproduce ammonium phosphate. During the three annual plans (1966-67 to1968-69), the Gujarat State Fertilizer Co., near Boarda, Coromandel Fer-tilizers in Vishakhapatnam and Shriram Chemical Industries at Kota (Rajasthan)were commissioned. Consequently, the installed capacity of nitrogen increas-ed by 732% from 162 thousand tons in 1960 to 1346 thousand tons of N in 1970.Similarly, the P205 capacity increased by 352% - from 96 thousand tons in1960 to 434 thousand tons in 1970.

Partly due to the success achieved during the sixties in buildingcapacity and partly because of the increased demand for fertilizers as aconsequence of the Green Revolution in agriculture, along with irrigationdevelopment and extension efforts, the Government of India decided to buildadditional capacity for fertilizer production during the 4th Plan period(1969-74). The Indian Explosives Ltd., Panki (UP), Madras FertilizersLtd., Manali (Tamil Nadu), FACT's Cochin, FCI's Durgapur, Namrup, Barauni andGorakhpur, and Zuari Agro-Chemicals, Goa were the major plants that went onstream during the Fourth Plan period. The Indian Farmers Fertilizer Coopera-tive started production in 1974 at Kandla and Kalol and initiated the construc-tion of another unit at Phulpur (U.P.). The New Fertilizer Policy of 1965removed the ambiguity of the Industrial Policy Resolution of 1956, regardingthe private investment in the fertilizer sector, and therefore, encouragedprivate investment in fertilizer industry. Mainly medium size plants wereconstructed by the private investors to produce NP and NPK fertilizers. Asa result of all these efforts, the installed capacity increased to 3.03million tons of N and 0.92 million tons of P205 in October 1978. The DraftFive Year Plan, 1978-83 has laid down a target capacity of 6.11 million tonsof N and 1.43 million tons of P205 by 1982-83.

1/ Fertilizer Corporation of India, Ltd.

2/ Fertilizers and Chemicals, Travancore Ltd.

- 33 -

Table 4.2 indicates the existing as well as planned capacity on

N and P20 according to end-products. Nearly three-fourths of the present N

capacity Is in the form of urea. The additional capacity of 4.2 million tons

of N is to be created in the near future; of which, 2.1 m tons is under

implementation and another 2.1 m tons has already been approved in principle.

This additional capacity will be available mostly in the form of urea, and a

small part in the form of nitrophosphate and NPK complex fertilizers. It is

interesting to note that no additional capacity will be built for ammonium

sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate, the two important products of the

sixties (see below).

In the field of P205, an additional capacity of 396 thousand

tons of P 20 is under implementation, and another 174 thousand tons of

P 0 capacity has been approved in principle. Nearly nine-tenths of the

additional capacity of ?2°0 under implementation will be available in the

form of TSP (triple superphosphate) and nitrophosphate and about one-tenth

through complex fertilizers, whereas the capacity approved in principle will

be available mostly in the form of NP/NPK complex fertilizers. Thus, TSP and

complex fertilizers will dominate single superphosphate in additional capacity

build-ups for P 205. Recently, the Government of India has reversed its

earlier policy of non-approval of SSP plants in future P 205 capacity build-

ups by approving 4 SSP plants. 1/

4.1.2 Sectorwise Capacity

The Government of India took an active part in investing, and

in building capacity, in fertilizer industry in the fifties and sixties.

Two factories, namely, FACT at Alwaye (Kerala) and FCI, at Sindri (Bihar)

were public sector undertakings. Perhaps, due to the ambiguity of the

Industrial Policy Resolution of 1956, private investors did not invest in the

fertilizer sector until mid-sixties. The New Fertilizer Policy of 1965

removed this ambiguity, and encouraged private investment. Thus, till early

sixties, private sector's contribution was insignificant. Furthermore,

fertilizer industry was included in the list of key industries which led to

heavy public investment in this sector. Consequently, 51% of the existing

capacity of N was under public control and 42% under private ownership in

1977 (Table 4.3). Although the cooperative sector controls a relatively

small portion of the existing capacity, its share is likely to increase

significantly. The Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative (cooperative

factory) has plants in Kandla and Kalol (Gujarat), is constructing one at

Phulpur (U.P.) with the help of a World Bank loan, and has plans to build

another plant near Ahmedabad (Gujarat). With regards to the projects under

implementation, 76% of the capacity is being build-up in the public sector,

and 24% in private and cooperative sectors, each contributing nearly half.

1/ Mr. G. Sobhti of the FAI, New Delhi informed us about this change in

policy.

- 34 -

If the projects, approved in principle, are also included, the share ofpublic sector will increase to 58%. Thus, a significant part of the addi-tional capacity of nitrogen will be constructed under public control.

What is true for nitrogen also holds for phosphate (P 20 ). Thepublic sector controls 37% of the existing capacity of P 05 and its sharewill increase to 50% after the projects under implementation and the projectsapproved in principle are completed. On the other hand, the share of privatesector will decrease from 49% in 1977 to 39% in early eighties.

Taken together, public sector will control little less than two-thirds of the capacity in the fertilizer industry in early eighties.

4.1.3 Regional Distribution of Licensed Capacity

In a country of the sub-continent size, like India, an equitableregional distribution of productive forces is necessary not only for poli-tical stability but also for greater economic efficiency in order to reduceshipment and transportation costs. Tables 4.4 and 4.5 indicate the zonewiseand statewise distribution of fertilizer capacity in India. In the field ofnitrogen, south zone had an installed capacity of 1 million tons, accountingfor nearly one-third of the total capacity in production in 1977-78. Eastand west zones, each accounted for little less than one-fourth of the totalcapacity,while central and north zones, taken together, contributed aboutone-fifth of the installed capacity in 1977-78.

A state-wise comparison reveals that four states, namely, TamilNadu, Gujarat, U.P. and Kerala had approximately one-half of the totalcapacity in production. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra, the threelargest states in the country, accounted for less than one-tenth of the totalcapacity of nitrogen in 1977-78. Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and other hillstates do not have any installed capacity. Each of the remaining states inIndia contributed between 2% to 7% of the nitrogen capacity. Like theconsumption of fertiizer nutrients, installed capacity of nitrogen is alsoconcentrated in a few states.

As on January 1, 1978 Punjab and Haryana accounted for little lessthan 3% of the existing capacity and had projects under construction account-ing for nearly 30% of the additional capacity under construction. As theexpansion of the Nangal unit was completed in July 1978, Punjab's capa-city increased from 80 thousand tons to 232 thousand tons. The completion ofthe National Fertilizer's Bhatinda unit in December 1978 has added another235 thousand tons to Punjab's existing capacity of 232 thousand tons.Similarly, Haryana has an installed capacity of 235 thousand tons becausethe Panipat unit of National Fertilizers has been commissioned in December1978.

- 35 -

Three states in east zone, namely Bihar, Orissa and West Bengal,

account for nearly one-fourth of the new capacity under construction.

Modernization of the FCI's Sindri (Bihar) unit, and the construction of the

two new units, one at Talchar (Orissa) and another at Haldia (West Bengal)

will increase the capacity of east zone by 510 thousand tons by the end of

1979. Similarly, the completion of IFFCO's Phulpur unit in 1979 will enhance

the nitrogen capacity of U.P. (Central Zone) by 228 thousand tons, whereas

the expansion of the FCI's Trombay IV and V units will increase Maharashtra's

nitrogen capacity by 205 thousand tons in early 1980. 1/ Finally, the

expansion of the FACT, Cochin II (Kerala), and the construction of the FCI's

Ramagundam (Andhra Pradesh) unit will add 233 thousand tons of additional

capacity to south zone's existing capacity of 1 million tons of nitrogen.

The installed capacity for nitrogen is targeted to reach 6.11

million tons by the end of the present plan (1982-83).

Besides 2.1 million tons of additional capacity under construction,

India also has approved projects which, on completion, will increase N capa-

city by another 2.1 million tons in the mid-eighties. These new projects

will be located in Madhya Pradesh (Korba), Rajasthan (Kota), Orissa (Paradeep),

Andhra Pradesh (Kakinada) and Maharashtra (Thal Vaishet). Although the

implementation of the Korba (M.P.) unit is dependent on the success achieved

in operating coal based plants at Talchar (Orissa) and Ramagundam (Andhra

Pradesh), while that of Paradeep (Orissa) is contingent on striking of

natural gas in the Bay of Bengal (See Table 4.4). 2/ Recent approval of the

IEL's Kanpur unit's expansion will increase U.P's. installed capacity by 100

thousand tons.

Like nitrogen, phosphate fertilizers capacity is also highly

concentrated. Nearly four-fifths of the existing capacity is located in

West and South zones (Table 4.5). Furthermore, only four states, namely,

Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala account for about 75% of the

current installed capacity of 915 thousand tons of phosphate. West Bengal,

Bihar, Maharashtra and Rajasthan have projects under construction which will

increase the present capacity by 396 thousand tons by 1980. All these

projects are being implementated under public sector control. Three other

states, namely, Madhya Pradesh (Jhabua), Gujarat (Kandla) and Andhra Pradesh

(Kakinada), have approved projects for implementation in early eighties. The

completion of these projects will add another 174 thousand tons of capacity

to India's phosphate fertilizers industry. The installed capacity is expect-

ed to reach 1.43 million tons by 1982-83.

1/ The Trombay IV has started production in July 1978.

2/ This information was provided Mr. G. Sobhti of the Fertilizer Associa-

tion of India.

- 36 -

4.1.4 Capacity Utilization

Almost all industries in India suffer from low capacity utiliza-tion 1/, and the fertilizer industry is no exception to that. Between1970-71 and 1976-77, capacity utilization has varied-be'tween 58% and 71% fornitrogen and between 45 and 66 percent for phosphate (Table 4.7). Powerfailure and mechenical breakdowns are major factors contributing towards lowcapacity utilization. An overall low capacity utilization for P 05 mayresult from the fact that important raw materials used in manufacturing P205,namely, rockphosphate and sulphur, are mostly imported in India. A sharpincrease in their prices in 1972-74 period contributed towards low capacityutilization for P 0 5. Lack of demand for P20, and difficulties in operatingphosphoric acid piants also deceJerate capacity utilization for P 05 plants.Similarly, increased prices of petroleum products resulting from the ferti-lizer crisis of the early seventies affected'N capacity utilization.

4.1.5 Capacity Utilization of N Plants

The Working Group on the Development of Fertilizer Industry hasdivided the existing fertilizer plants into three broad categories, namely,extremely old plants and those with built-in constraints, stabilized modernplants, and new plants in the process of stabilization. Table 4.8 indicatesthe classification of the existing fertilizer, plants into these threecategories for nitrogen. Of 24 plants, 8 plants belong to the first categorywhile 4 constitute the last category. These 12 plants have obviously verylow capacity utilization ranging between 35% and 50%. Learning by operatingthe new plants embodying modern and complex technology of production isexpected to improve the capacity utilization of 4 new plants at Tuticorin,Mangalore, Namrup expansion and Barauni. Corrective measures are beingtaken to improve the capacity utilization of 8 plants belonging to the firstcategoy. Sindri, Rourkela and Neyveli have obsolete technology as well asfeedstock. Modernization of Sindri plant will replace coke and COG by fueloil, and low-quality natural gypsum by high quality by-product phospho-gypsumin the production of ammonium sulphate. The Rourkela plant is convertedfrom COG to naphtha-based facility. Similarly, the Neyveli plant is convertedto use fuel-oil as a feed-stock in place of its present use of poor qualitylignite. The Enmore unit of EID-Perry is being phased out of fertilizerproduction and is being converted into methanol plant. The Durgapur 'andCochin plants are also being modified in order to optimize production. Afterthe modernization and/or rationalization of these six units, the capacityutilization of these plants is expected to improve significantly. Theremaining two plants, viz, Varanasi and Undyogamandal will continue to havelow capacity utilization.

1/ See Bhagawati, J. and P. Desai. India: Planning for Industrialization.Oxford University Press, 1970.

- 37 -

Plants belonging to the second category have operated at a rea-sonably high level of capacity utilization. Between 1972-73 and 1976-77,

the aggregate capacity utilization of this group ranged between 70 and 84%.Some of the plants have attained capacity level exceeding 90%. In 1976-77,the Nangal, Trombay, Namrup and Kanpur plants utilized 94% to 126% of their

installed capacities.

Among stabilized plants, there are variations in the Levels of

capacity utilized, over time as well as across plants. These variations are

mainly due to mechanical breakdowns andYor power shortages. Table 4.9indicates the loss of output due to mechanical breakdowns, power failures,raw material difficulties and other minor factors. Mechanical break downs

were responsible for 80 to 90 percent of 340-370 thousand tons of nitrogenoutput lost in 1975-76 and 1976-77. The total loss of output in these two

years was approximately one fifth of the total output. Power failures andpower cuts led to reduction in output by 50 to 130 thousand tons duringthe last five years.

Better predictive and preventive maintenance, and inventory and

spares control can alone help reduce loss of output due to mechanical break-

downs. The present foreign exchange surplus in India should be utilized to

import parts and spares to improve capacity utilization. The construction ofcaptive power generating units at Trombay, Gorakhpur, Durgapur and Coromandelshould help prevent loss in nitrogen production due to power failures and

power cuts. Moreover, a better coordination between the State ElectricityBoards and Fertilizer units might avoid frequent power cuts.

The Working Group has suggested to supply ammonia from externalsources in order to improve capacity utilization. The Marathe Committee has

recommended a norm of 80% capacity utilization in order to ensure 12% returnon the net worth. For the new units, capacity utilization norms establishedby the working group are 50%, 70% and 85% during the first, second, and third

(and thereafter) year of the commissioning of a new plant. For the coalbased plants, these norms are, respectively, 50%, 70%, and 80%.

4.1.6 Capacity Utilization of P40r Plants

Compared to nitrogenous fertilizer plants, capacity utilizationof phosphatic fertilizer plants is very low. During 1973-74 and 1976-77

period, capacity utilization varied between 46% and 66% (Table 4.7). Highprices of straight phosphatic fertilizers compared to complex fertilizerswere constraining the demand, and therefore, capacity utilization in P205fertilizer plants. In March 1976, a subsidy of Rs. 1,250/- per ton of P205was introduced to stimulate demand. Increased demand for P205 in 1976-77

also enhanced capacity utilization.

Table 4.10 indicates capacity utilization for various P205 plants

during 1973-74 and 1976-77 period. The Trombay and Ennore units have con-

sistantly maintained high levels of capacity utilization, whereas the Udyoga-

Mandal unit had always oprated at close to 50% of the installed capacity.The Cochin, Baroda, Madras and Vizag units maintained an average of 60 to 70

percent of capacity utilization.

- 38 -

L TS al1.35ve /\/

!.~ Fgr 4.2 Th Flo Cat of th FetlLe Idustr

.= T a_u f

nmmu~ i W zeU Ier

j | awLnvs xImjn I 1 1 E ! s wIr * I t o:.~~M

Figure 4.2: The Flow Chart of the Fertilizer Industry

- 39 -

The inadequate supplies of raw materials, like rockphosphate and

sulphur, which are mostly imported, is another factor inhibiting high capacity

utilization levels. Furthermore, difficulties in operating phosphoric acid

plants have also contributed towards low capacity utilization in SSP plants.

The discovery and development of rockphosphate in Rajasthan should help in

improving capacity utilization by supplying indigenous rockphosphate.

4.2 Production of Fertilizer Nutrients

4.2.1 Chronology of Fertilizer Manufacture

Table 4.12 indicates the introduction of different fertilizer

products in India. Single superphosphate (SSP) was introduced in 1906,

whereas ammonium sulphate was manufactured, for the first time, in 1922.

These two products dominated the fertilizer production scene till 1959, when

urea, ammonium sulphate nitrate, and ammonium chloride entered the production

stream. Between 1960 and 1965, different units of the Fertilizer Corporation

of India, and Fertilizers and Chemicals, Travancore, Ltd., Alwaye (Kerala)

started manufacturing three fertilizers, namely, ammonium phosphate sulphate,

nitrophasphate, and calcium ammonium nitrate. Diammonium phosphate and

triple super-phosphate (TSP) were first produced in 1967 and 1968 respec-

tively. Other complex fertilizers, like urea ammonium phosphate and ammonium

phosphate sulphate nitrate were also introduced in 1968 by the FCI and

Coromandel Fertilizers, Ltd., Vizag (Andhra Pradesh). Thus, prior to 1960,

SSP and ammonium sulphate were main phosphate and nitrogenous fertilizers.

After 1960, urea and many NP and NPK complex fertilizers replaced these two

products.

4.2.2 Nutrientwise Production

Production of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers in India

has increased severalfold since 1952-53. Nitrogen production increased at a

compound rate of 17 percent per annum from 53.1 thousand tons in 1952-53 to

2.0 million tons in 1977-78 (Tables 4.13 and 4.14). Output of phosphatic

fertilizers grew at a compound rate of 17.6 percent per annum between 1952-

53 and 1977-78. In absolute terms, the P 0 output increased from 7.4

thousand tons in 1952-53 to 670.0 thousan3 Lons in 1976-77. The total

output of both nutrients maintained an annual compound growth rate of 16.4

percent during this period (Table 4.14). The New Five Year Plan, 1978-83

envisages to double the installed capacity for fertilizer production during

the next five years. Consequently, the production of N and P205 is expected

to reach 4.1 and 1.13 million tons in 1982-83.

Table 4.14 presents the data on growth rates of fertilizer produc-

tion for different sub-periods. Between 1952-53 and 1961-62, nitrogen pro-

duction increased at an annual compound rate of 12.6 percent while P205 out-

put maintained a compound growth rate of 27.4 percent per annum. Nitrogen

production grew at a faster rate in the sixties compared to fifties, whereas

- 40 -

P20 output increased at a much slower pace in the sixties. In seventies,prAouction of both nutrients recorded lower rates of growth compared to theirgrowth rates in the sixties, although the rate of growth of N production inthe seventies was higher than what it was in the fifties. A low rate ofgrowth of fertilizer production in the seventies might be due to globalenergy and fertilizer crisis resulting into increased prices of imported rawmaterials like sulphuric acid, rockphosphate and petroleum products used infertilizer production.

Table 4.15 indicates the annual percentage variations in fertilizerproduction in India between 1961-62 and 1976-77. Nitrogen production hasvaried between 11% and 39%, during 1961-62 to 1976-77 period except 1965-66and 1973-74 when it decreased. On the other hand, P205 output has fluctuatedannually in the range of 2% and 49%.

In 1976-77, production of N and P 205 increased, respectively,by 23.1% and 49.4% over 1975-76 level. Decreased raw material prices,improved power supply and labor relations, and increased demand for ferti-lizer nutrients are considered to be the main contributory factors for thisincreased level of fertilizer output. 1/

4.2.3 Regional Distribution of Fertilizer Production

Table 4.16 presents the data on zonewise and statewise productionof N and P 05 for different years. In 1970-71, U.P., Gujarat and Rajasthanwere the three top ranking states in the field of notrogen production,whereas in 1976-77, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu displaced U.P. and Rajasthan,respectively, to the third and fourth position in N production. Punjab,Haryana, Karnataka, Goa and Assam do not produce significant amount of P 0whereas the contribution of Delhi and Karnataka is nil in nitrogen produc-tion.

Over time, production of nitrogeneous fertilizers has increasedsignificantly in U.P., Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Gujarat, West Bengal, and Kerala.Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan have registered declines in their Nproduction between 1970-71 and 1975-76. Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtrapresents a picture of stagnation, while Punjab could be described as unstable.State level production of P 20 over time does not reveal any consistentpattern. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra contribute morethan 70 percent of the total P205 output in the country.

Zonewise analysis of production trends reveals that central,east and west zones have increased their nitrogenous output uninterrupt-edly during 1970-71 and 1976-77 period. Nitrogen production registereddecreases in 1974-75 in the south as well as north zones. South and westzones have registered appreciable increases in P205 production.

1/ Fertilizer News, July 1977., p.ii.

- 41 -

Relative shares of different zones in fertilizer production have

changed considerably between 1967-68 and 1975-76 (Table 4.17). Central zone

produced about 2% of the total nitrogen output whereas north and east zones

contributed, respectively, 21% and 35% in 1967-68. Thus, more than half of

the total N production was concentrated in north and east zones. In 1977-78,

total share of east and north zones reduced to about 15% while central zone

increased its contribution to slightly more than one-fifth of total N produc-

tion in the country. South and west zones, taken together, have maintained

their share between 40 and 50 percent of total N production, and continue to

produce about 80 to 90 percent of total P205 output in the country. With

the discovery of rockphosphate in Udaipur district, Rajasthan, it is anti-

cipated that central zone may enhance its share in P205 production in the

future.

4.2.4 Product-Composition of Fertilizer Nutrients

Ammonium sulphate was the only source of nitrogen produced in

India in the fifties. During the Third Five Year Plan period, urea and

other straight nitrogenous fertilizer products were introduced. By 1967-68,

only 24 percent of the total nitrogen was produced in the form of ammonium

sulphate (Table 4.18). Urea and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) accounted

for, respectively, one-fourth and one third of the total nitrogen production.

Thus, these three products supplied more than 80% of nitrogen produced in

India in 1967-68. NP and NPK complex fertilizers accounted for about 12

percent of the total N production.

Seventies saw another breakthrough in the technology of nitrogen

production. No further expansion of ammonium sulphate. In 1976-77, 71% of

nitrogen was produced in the form of urea. Ammonium sulphate and calcium

ammonium nitrate, which accounted for approximately 57 percent of nitrogen

produced in India in 1.967-68, contributed only about 15%. The share of

complex fertilizers did not change significantly between 1967-68 and 1976-77.

Perhaps, relatively lower distribution and transportation costs, and ease in

handling and storing have contributed towards increased production of urea

not only in India but all over the world during the seventies.

Like ammonium sulphate, single supper-phsophate (SSP) was the only

source of P205 till 1958-59 (Table 4.19). Even in the late sixties, SSP

accounted for nearly 72 percent of the total P205 produced in India. After

1967-68, SSP's share in P 05 output declined significantly. In 1971-72,

SSP accounted for 43% of the total P 0 production; and its share decreased

to close to one-fourth in 1975-76 ang ?976-77. Urea-ammonium phosphate,

nitrophosphate, diammonium phosphate and ammonium-phosphate sulphate were

the other major products accounting for nearly 50% of P 205 production in

early seventies. Although the contribution of these products has decreased

over time, yet they accounted for approximately 38% of P 0 output in 1976-77.

The complex fertilizers provided nearly 35 percent of P 2 'in 1976-77.

Thus, NP and NPK comp:Lex fertilizers contributed about three-fourth of the

total P20 output as against their very small contribution (less than 1.5%)

to nitrogen production.

- 42 -

Thus, urea for nitrogen, and complex fertilizers for phosphateare the major fertilizer products produced in India.

4.3 Fertilizer Imports

The Plantation Boards, who were the early users of chemicalfertilizers in India, met their fertilizer requirements through imports.Sodium nitrate from Chile was imported as early as 1899. In 1942, theGovernment of India launched the "Grow More Food Campaign," under which theuse of chemical fertilizers was accepted as an important means to augmentthe food supply in the country. Also, the indigenous production of chemicalfertilizers to meet the domestic demand became the prime goal of the ferti-lizer policy in the forties. It was, however, decided that as long as theindigenous production fell short of the domestic demand, imports would fillthe gap. Even today, "meeting the gap" (between consumption and production)appears to be the core of the fertilizer import policy.

India imported 1.64 million tons of NPK fertilizer nutrientsin 1975-76 as against 47 thousand tons in 1952-53 (Table 4.26). The growthof imports was rather slow in the fifties, accelerated in the sixties andslowed down in the early seventies. With the introduction of the high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice, the fertilizer imports increasedsignificantly in 1966-67 and thereafter. Along with the quantity, the valueof the imported fertilizers also increased appreciably in the mid-sixties.The total value of imported fertilizer nutrients rose to Rs. 1,288.2 millionin 1966-67 as against Rs. 411.9 million in the previous year (Table 4.26).

The fertilizer crisis of the early seventies affected the costof imported fertilizers adversely for India. The total value of importsincreased from Rs. 899.7 m in 1971-72 to Rs. 7,227.7 m in 1975-76: aneightfold increase, whereas the total quantity of imported fertilizers in-creased by about 64% - from 997 thousand tons in 1971-72 to 1,635 thousandtons in 1975-76. Thus, the average cost of each ton of imported fertilizerwas much higher in 1975-76 compared to what it was in 1971-72.

The main fertilizer products imported in India are urea, ammoniumsulphate, calcium ammonium nitrate, nitrophosphate, diammonium phosphate,and muriate of potash. USA, UK, USSR, Japan, Germany (East and West),Italy, Rumania, Poland and Quatar are the major exporters of fertilizerproducts to India.

4.3.1 Import of Nitrogenous Fertilizers

Ammonium sulphate was the main nitrogenous fertilizer productimported in the forties and early fifties. Urea, calcium ammonium nitrateand ammonium sulphate provide approximately 90% of the currently importednitrogenous fertilizers in the country. USA, USSR, Italy, Holland, Poland,Quatar and Kuwait are major fertilizer exporters to India. India alsoimports complex fertilizers from West Germany, Italy, UK and USA (Tables4.27 and 4.28).

- 43 -

In absolute terms, the imports of nitrogenous fertilizers in-

creased from 44.0 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 996.0 thousand tons in 1975-76

(Table 4.26). Prior to 1960-61, India imported relatively small quantitiesof nitrogenous fertilizers. With a targeted consumption of one million tonsof fertilizer nutrients during the Third Plan, India increased fertilizerimports to 399 thousand tons in 1960-61 compared to 142 thousand tons in

the previous year. The introduction of high-yielding varieties in 1966-67

further boosted the fertilizer imports to 632 thousand tonis. Although there

was a significant decline in the imports of nitrogenous fertilizers in 1970-

71 and 1971-72, fertilizer imports have increased by 57% between 1966-67 and1975-76.

Table 4.30 indicates the import of fertilizer materials. In

1967-68, approximately 1.05 million tons of ammonium sulphate and 0.92million tons of urea were imported. Against this, 96 thousancl tons of

ammonium sulphate and 3.67 million tons of urea were imported in 1975-76.Thus, imports of ammonium sulphate are fast dwindling while those of ureahave increased tremendously during the seventies. Imports of calcium

ammonium nitrate and complex fertilizers have also increased (luring thisperiod.

The contribution of imports to total fertilizer consumptionhas fluctuated between 21% and 188% before 1960-61, and between 27% and 86%thereafter (Table 4.31). A ratio of current imports to current consumptionmight be useful only if the fertilizer market was in equilibrium, i.e.,

demand was equal to supply for every year. Otherwise, this ratio is mis-

leading. If there is excess supply in a given year, the aggregate supply in

the following year will consist of three components: a) production, b)

excess supply from the previous year, and c) imports. Assuming that the

fertilizer market,was in equilibrium in 1951-52, i.e., the quantity consumed

was equal to the production plus imports, excess supply is calculated for

every year from 1952-53 onwards in Table 4.32. It is clear that totalsupply exceeded total consumption, and therefore, availabilities of fer-tilizer nutrients can not be considered as a factor constraining fertilizerconsumpion. The total supplies, compared with consumption, exceeded by 17%

(1954-55) and 242% (1961-62).

4.3.2 Import of Phosphatic Fertilizers:

Unlike the nitrogenous fertilizers, the imports constituted asmall fraction of total supply of the phosphatic fertilizers in India till

1965-66. However, with the introduction of HYV's of wheat and rice in the

mid-sixties, the imports of P205 spurted to 148 thousand tons in 1966-67(compared to 14.0 thousand tons in the previous year), and have fluctuated

between 361 thousand 1:ons and 32 thousand tons thereafter (Table 4.26).

The phosphatic fertilizers are mostly imported in the form of

complex fertilizers, and among NP and NPK complex fertilizers, diammonium

phosphate (18-46-0) occupies an important place. In 1975-76, India imported

536.0 thousand tons of DAP costing Rs. 1.48 billion. Ammonium nitrophosphate

- 44 -

has also contributed significantly towards the imported phosphatic ferti-lizers (Table 4.30). USA, UK, West Germany and France are the main expor-ters of P 205 to India (Table 4.28).

The excess supply calculations for P20 (Table 4.33) revealsome interesting results. Between 1952-53 and 1465-66, when imports weremeager, the excess supply fluctuated between 32% and 100% of the totalconsumption. 1/ The increased imports of P 205 in 1966-67 and thereafter,simply generated higher levels of surpluses - 90% in 1967-68 and 70% in1968-69. The situation, however, changed drastically during the 1970-71 and1973-74 periods. Instead of excess supply, the deficits of large quantitiesoccurred. These deficits ranged from 109.9 thousand tons in 1970-71 to112.2 thousand tons in 1973-74. It's not clear how these deficits were metduring these years.2/

The phosphatic fertilizer imports are likely to increase in thefuture for two reasons: First, efforts are being made to increase theconsumption of P 05 in order to attain better NPK balance; and second, thecreation of a buffer stock equivalent to 20% of the annual consumption.

4.3.3. Import of Potassic Fertilizers:

As India does not have any known reserves of potash ores, thepotassic fertilizer reqirements are met through imports. Although India hadbeen importing K20 products since 1952-53, the quantity of K20 was insigni-ficantly small compared to nitrogenous fertilizers till 1965-66 (Table4.26). The introduction of high-yielding varieties in 1966-67 increased theK 20 imports significantly. Between 1966-67 and 1974-75, the K20 importsincreased by 270%, from 118 thousand tons in the former year to 437 thousandtons in the latter.

The potassic fertilizers are mainly imported in the form ofmuriate of potash (MOP) from Canada, East Germany, West Germany and USSR(Table 4.29). A small quantity of K20 is imported in the form of sulphateof potash from West Germany.

1/ The manufacturers of P 20 have argued that the lack of demand is themain reason for a very low capacity utilization. These calculationsmight provide a partial support for their contention.

2/ These deficits are not identical to the economist's concept of "excessdemands" which are defined as the difference between expected demandand expected supply at a given price. Thus, excess demand is an ex antewhile the deficits are ex post.

- 45 -

4.3.4. Self Sufficiency in Fertilizers

The Working Group on the Development of Fertilizer Industry has

estimated the future stream of production from the existing plants and plants

under erection (see tables 4.34A and B). The existing units are expected to

contribute 2.53 million tons of N while those under construction may produce

around 1.73 million tons of N in 1982-83. Thus, the total supply from

indigenous sources, after allowing for a 5% loss in production, would be

about 4.04 million tons. It is expected that the approved projects, viz,

Kakinada, Korba, Thal Vaishet, Assam, and Ahmedabad, might contribute around

540 thousand tons of N, thereby increasing the domestic supply of N to 4.58

million tons. As the projected demand for N by the Planning Commission

is 4.76 milion tons, 1/ India has to rely on imports. The creation of 20%

buffer stock will further widen the gap between demand and domestic supply.

In 1983-84, production from new units is expected tc increase to

1.125 million tons of N, which might enable India to achieve self-suffi-

ciency (Table 4.34C). The self-sufficiency, likely to be achieved in 1983-84,

could be sustained only if India plans to build at least 6 more plants, each

of 345 thousand tons of N capacity in a manner such that production from

these plants becomes available in 1984-85 and thereafter (see Table 4.34B).

Likewise in P 0 , India will achieve self-sufficiency in 1983-84

if the projects approve in principle are completed as scheduled (table 4.53B

and C). As the expected demand for P205 in 1987-88 is estimated around 2.5

million tons, while the production from the existing units and firm projects

will amount to 1.105 million tons, India has to rely on imports unless

additional capacity is built-up. To sustain the self-sufficiency achieved in

1983-84, India must build additional capacity of 1.90 million tons of P205between 1983-84 and 1987-88 (table 4.35C).

However, various technical, financial, and sociopolitical factors

might delay the implementation of the approved projects, and therefore, India

would be dependent on imported fertilizers. Perhaps, the Planning Commission

has taken into account some of the possible constraints likely to influence

the implementation of the approved projects while formulating the Draft Five

Year Plan, 1978-83, and expects a shortfalls of 1.15 million tons of N and

475 thousand tons of P205 in 1982-83 (table 6). These shortfalls are sub-

stantially higher than those estimated by the Working Group (see tables 4.34C

and 4.35C). Thus, even by the end of the current Five Year Plan, imports

will account for nearly one-third of the total fertilizer consumption in

India.

1/ See table 3.18A.

- 46 -

Table 6

Fertilizer Balance 1982-83

Nutrient Demand Production Imports--------------- '000 ton----------------

N 5,250 4,100 1,150

P 1,600 1,125 475

K 1,000 - 1,000

Source: Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, p. 44.

- 47 -

4.4 Raw Materials

Availability of raw materials appears as an important constrainton utilizing the existing capacity as well as on building additional capa-city in the fertilizer industry. Although various raw materials are used inthe production of nitrogenous fertilizers, a little less than three-fourthsof the existing capacity is based on naphtha (Table 4.20). Natural gas isused for 17% of the current capacity under production. The remainder of thecapacity, approximately 13%, uses electric power, coke, coke-oven-gases(COG), lignite and imported ammonia.

Significant changes have taken place in the use of feedstocksfor N production during the last two decades. In 1955-56, coke and coke-oven gases were the major raw materials used in the production of nitrogenin India. After a decade,naphtha, electric power and lignite provided rawmaterials for nearly one half of the capacity while the other half was stilldependent on coke and COG.- However, a major shift took place in earlyseventies, and naphtha became one of the most important feedstock used innitrogen manufacture. Nearly three-fourths of the capacity under productionwas based on naphtha in 1973.

As naphtha became relatively costlier due to increases in pricesof petroleum products, the Government of India in 1973-74 decided to cons-truct the additional capacity based on fuel oil. Consequently, the use ofnaphtha decreased from 75% in 1973 to 70 percent in 1976-77. Furthermore,only about 17% of the additional capacity of 2.1 million tons presentlyunder construction wi]l be based on naphtha. On the other hand, the use ofcoal and fuel oil is likely to increase substantially. Nearly three-fourthsof the additional capacity under implementation as well as approved inprinciple will use coal and fuel oil as raw materials. Thus, in the earlyeighties, approximately 33% of the capacity will be based on naphtha andanother 33% will use coal and fuel oil as raw materials.

The availability of natural gas from Bombay High, Bassein andCambay basins will increase its use in place of fuel oil as a feedstock forfertilizer production. In order to achieve self-reliance, natural gas andcoal would be encouraged in future nitrogen plants.

Table 4.21 provides information about the raw materials usedfor phosphatic fertilizers. Sulphur and imported phosphoric acid are thetwo most important feedstocks, accounting for nearly 80% of the P 0 capa-city in India. Nitric acid and smelter gases provide raw materias 5 forapproximately 17 percent of the existing capacity under production.

4.4.1 Production and Potential of Raw Materials in India

Self-reliance in the production of fertilizers in India hasbeen stressed by the Government of India as well as by the industry.In addition to capital requirements, the availability of raw materials at a

- 48 -

relatively cheaper cost is important for attaining self-reliance in fer-tilizer industry. Consequently, India has increased its production of rawmaterials significantly during seventies and is actively engaged in explor-ing the potential reserves of rockphosphate, oil and other petroleumproducts.

Production of rock-phosphate has increased considerably duringthe last ten years or so, although their present level of production ismuch below the current requirements. In 1975-76, approximately 495 thousandtons of rockphosphate was produced (Table 4.22). Udaipur district (Rajas-than) alone supplied aproximately 94% of the total rockphosphate produced inIndia in 1975-76 (Table 4.23).

The Geological Survey of India has estimated that Rajasthan(Udaipur), Madhya Pradesh (Jhabua), Uttar Pradesh (Missouri), and WestBengal (Purulia) have about 150 m tons of rockphosphate deposits. Ofthese, nearly 100 m tons are expected to be located in Udaipur district.However, only 11.9 million tons of these deposits contain greater than 30%P205 while another 30 million tons has 20% P :0 5 Most of these deposits ofrelatively high P 05 quality are concentrated in Jhamar Kotra and Matonareas of Udaipur district. Jhabua district of Madhya Pradesh also has 4.3millions tons of rockphosphate reserves containing greater than 29% P 205Other deposits are low in P 205 contents (Table 4.24).

Since rockphosphate is used in the production of SSP, TSP,nitrophosphate and phosphoric acid, the location of new plants pro-ducing phosphate fertilizers in the vicinity of Jhamar Kotra area maysave transportation costs.

India's production of sulphuric acid is mainly dependent on thesupply of iron pyrites (Amjore mines and Saladipura), copper pyrites (Ghat-sila and Khetri), and waste gases from zinc pyrites (Udaipur). Since thetotal supply of sulphuric acid from all these sources is very small, Indiahas to rely on imports of sulphur for the availability of sulphuric acid inthe future.

4.4.2 Oil and Natural Gas

A little less than two-thirds of the petroleum requirementsin India are met through imports. Increases in oil prices in 1973-74, andthereafter, enhanced the cost of imported petroleum products from US$265million in FY 1973 to US$1.6 billion in FY 1976. Consequently, the Govern-ment of India increased its efforts to discover the potential sources of oilin the country. The Oil and Natural Gas Commission (ONGC) carried success-ful explorations in Bombay High and Bassein (North and South) structures anddiscovered recoverable deposits of 200 million tons of oil and 30,000million cubic meters of natural gas. 1/ In March 1977, Bombay High achieved

1/ See D.B. Mahatme, "India's Search for Oil" in Commerce, Annual Number1976, pp. 161-164.

- 49 -

an annual production oi- 2 million tons of oil. It is estimated that Bombay

High basin would attain a potential of annual production of 10 million tons

of oil by 1980-81. Around mid-eighties, Bassein (North) would have a

potential to add 3-4 million tons of oil per year.

At present, besides offshore oil production from Bombay High

and Bassein (North) structures, on-shore oil fields of Assam (Digboi,

Naharkotiya and Moran) and Gujarat (Ankleshwar, Kalol and Nawagaon) produce

approximately 8.3 million tons of crude oil per year. The recoverable

reserves from these two basins are estimated around 150 million tons of

oil.

The total reserves from these three basins, namely, Assam-

Arakan, Bombay High-Bassein, and Cambay (Gujarat), will be able to sustain

an annual production of approximately 20 million tons in the mid-eighties,

which will suffice for approximately two-thirds of the total petroleum

requirements in the country.

Thus, to become self-sufficient in the field of petroleum pro-

ducts, India has to continue its search for offshore and on-shore oil.

Preliminary investigations by the ONGC has identified 27 on-shore (17) and

off-shore (10) basins having a total.recoverable reserves of two billion

tons of oil and four billion tons oil-equivalent of natural gas.

Increased production of oil in India will not only help in

saving foreign exchange but also increase fertilizer production by meeting a

part of the industry's energy and raw material requirements.

India does not have any known deposits of potash ores, and there-

fore, the potassic fertilizer requirements have to be met by imports.

However, India can produce a small quantity of potassium chloride from

bittern, a waste product available from sea brine in the process of manu-

facturing the common salt. India's annual production of 6 million tons of

common salt makes available an equal quantity of bittern, which if evapo-

rated to 36 to 37.50 Be', will produce 45,000 tons of potassium chloride

and other marine chemicals. The Central Salt and Marine Chemicals Research

Institute, Kandla, is engaged in developing processes to use bittern and

other waste products from sea brine. However, the supply of potassic

fertilizers through this process would remain very small.

5.0 Pricing of Fertilizer Products

In market economies, prices of different products are generally

determined by the interplay of demand and supply forces, although in certain

sectors, like energy and other public utilities, prices are governed by the

public regulatory agencies to protect the interests of the consumers along

with assuring a fair return on the investment by producers. In developing

economies, where structural transformations in consumption and production

- 50 -

patterns are induced either by economic growth and development or by publicpolicy actions, the governmental regulations of prices and/or quantities ofscarce commodities are usually imperative.

The introduction of chemical fertilizers in developing countries ingeneral, and in India in particular, was not only an input for agriculturalproduction but also an innovation in the farm sector. Diffusion of anyinnovation critically depends, among other things, on its profitability,which, in turn, is determined by its price and productivity.

To promote an increasing use of fertilizers for agriculturalproduction and to enhance fertilizer production in the country, the Govern-ment of India has assured smooth movements of fertilizer prices by statu-torily controlling the prices of urea, ammonium sulphate, and calciumammonium nitrate and by providing the guidelines for the determination ofthe prices of phosphatic and potassic fertilizers. Ocassionally, theGovernment of India has protected the interests of the consumers and pro-ducers by subsidizing the sale of fertilizers. Currently, the Government isproviding a subsidy of Rs. 1,250/- per ton of P205' The prices of NP andNPK complex fertilizers were generally determined by the manufacturers tillMarch 1976. Now, a prior governmental approval of prices of these ferti-lizers is mandatory.

Table 5.1 and Figure 5.1 indicate the current prices of differentfertilizers nutrients. Between March 1971 and May 1974, prices of variousfertilizer nutrients were generally stable. Prices of all fertilizernutrients recorded steep increases in June 1974, and were at their peakbetween June 1974 and July 1975. As the increased prices of fertilizernutrients affected the fertilizer consumption adversely, the Government ofIndia started a series of price reductions in July 1975 and thereafter. InMarch 1978, the nitrogen prices were Rs. 4.54, Rs. 3.37 and Rs. 4.08 per kgthrough ammonium sulphate, urea and calcium ammonium nitrate respectively.Thus, at these prices, urea appears to be the cheapest source of nitrogen.The price of P205 is Rs. 3.27 per kg through single superphosphate whilethat of K 20 is Rs. 1.34 per kg through muriate of potash.

Since the current pricing policy has been evolved throughdifferent phases in the past, and differs from one product to another,a brief historical analysis is pursued for different product categories.

5.1 Pricing of Nitrogeneous Fertilizers: 'Statutorily Controlled

To ensure an equitable' distribution of limited supply of ammoniumsulphate, which India received from the International Emergency Food Councilon a Government-to-Government basis, the Government of India established theCentral Fertilizer Pool in 1944 under the Ministry of Food and Agriculture.The Pool operated on a no-profit no-loss basis and distributed fertilizersto different Plantation Boards and State governments. Till December 1965,the Pool acquired hundred percent of ammonium sulphate, urea, calcium

5

$4

/

/9/~~~

2t -- *-*-*-*- --- i , ----

_ _ ___

067

50 30.' nJ72 -11.10.73

I. j10.7.75 1.12.75 20.4.76 18.10.76 e.2.77

l6. 3.76

With effect from

Figure 5.1: Prices of Fertilizer Products, 1971-77

- 52 -

ammonium nitrate and other straight nitrogenous fertilizers produced inthe country at a retention price, which was determined by the Cost AccountDivision of the Ministry of Finance by taking into account the cost of pro-duction as well as a fair return on the investments made by the manufac-turers. The Pool also imported nitrogeneous fertilizers to meet the con-sumption needs in the country. The selling prices of these products werefixed in such a way that profit or loss to the Pool was as low as possible.

Between 1944 and 1952, the ammonium sulphate price fluctuatedin the range of Rs. 241 and Rs. 380 1/ (Table 5.2). As a result of theincreased indigenous production from the FCI, Sindri and FACT, Alwaye(Kerala) units in 1953, ammonium sulphate prices decreased to Rs. 290 - Rs.310 for cultivators, and to Rs. 330-335 for industrial and plantation users.Prior to 1953, the Pool charged an uniform price for AS to all users.During 1953 and 1965, different prices were charged to State governments andPlantation Boards (Table 5.3 and 5.4). The Tea, Coffee and Rubber Boardspaid generally a higher price compared to State Governments who were dis-tributing fertilizers to cultivators. Perhaps, to stimulate the use ofnitrogenous fertilizers for agricultural production, the Pool chargedrelatively lower prices for agricultural purposes. This price differentialwas in the range of Rs. 5.0 and Rs. 42.0 for ammonium sulphate and betweenRs. 2 and Rs. 40 for urea. However, it is not clear why the farmers inU.P., Madras and Orissa were charged different, and generally higher, pricescompared to their counterparts in other States and Union territories.

The Fertilizer Distribution Enquiry Committee in 1959-60 andthe Sivaraman Committee on Fertilizers in 1965 recommended that the manu-facturers should have the "freedom of marketing" their own fertilizers.Consequently, the Government of India gradually decreased the amount ofindigenous fertilizers acquired by the Central Fertilizer Pool and allowedthe manufacturers to fix their own prices for fertilizers except urea, ASand CAN, whose prices were, and still are, statutorily fixed by the Poolunder the Fertilizer (Control) Order, 1957. In April 1969, the Pool did notacquire any amount of fertilizers from domestic manufacturers (Table 5.8).As a result of the Sivaraman Committee's recommendations, the Pool alsocharged a uniform all India (FOR destination) price for urea, ammoniumsulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate.

The price build-up for each fertilizer takes into account thelanded cost of imported fertilizers, the cost of production of indigenousfertilizers, handling charges at ports for imported fertilizers, interest oninvestment for six months, incidental and overhead charges and the railwayfreight. To this the margin for wholesalers and retailers is added. Thefinal price, called the Pool price, is the ceiling price for the farmer,exclusive of central and state sales taxes and local duties but inclusive ofexcise duty.

1/ F.O.R. main port.

- 53 -

Between 1966 and 1969, the prices of urea, AS and CAN increased

respectively, only by 26%, 24% and 20% inspite of the 57% devaluation of

the Rupee in June 1966. In order to protect the interests of the farming

community, the Pool sold the fertilizers at the pre-devaluation prices by

incurring a loss of Rs. 44 millions. The Pool also protected the interests

of the manufacturers by providing a subsidy of Rs. 22.0 million to compen-

sate for the increased costs of the imported raw materials.

The price of urea, AS and CAN remained more or less unchanged

between April, 1969 and May 1974, except an increase in price during October

1973 to specifically cover the increased price of naphtha. The situation,

however, completely changed with the global energy and fertilizer crisis of

the early seventies. The prices of imported fertilizers and raw materials

increased substantially, leading to heavy losses for the Pool. The Government

of India resisted the increase in fertilizer prices to protect the interests

of the farming community for two years. However, as the burden was becoming

so heavy on the Exchequer, amounting nearly Rs. 400 crores annually, the

Government unwillingly increased the prices of urea, AS and CAN, respectively,

by 90%, 56% and 78% in June 1974. In absolute terms, prices of urea, AS and

CAN increased respectively, from Rs. 1,050, Rs. 600 and Rs. 615 per ton in

May 1974 to Rs. 2,000, Rs. 935 and Rs. 1,095 in June 1974. 1/ Even at these

new prices, the Pool was incurring losses on the imported fertilizers,

whereas the domestic manufacturers were having substantial margins over their

ex-factory realization prices or fair delivery prices. In order to partly

compensate for the losses on the imported fertilizers, the Fertilizer Pool

Equalization Charge was introduced in June 1974, under which the domestic

manufacturers agreed to pay the difference between the statutory price and

fair delivery price to the Central Fertilizer Pool. This charge was, Rs.

610, Rs. 195 and Rs. 295 per ton, respectively, on urea, AS and CAN in June

1974 (Table 5.9).

Although these price increases were financially justified in the

context of the prevailing international prices of chemical fertilizers,

the consumption of fertilizer nutrients was hit hard by them, and recorded

a historical decrease of 266 thousand tons in 1974-75 compared to 1973-74.

Even in 1975-76, the consumption of fertilizer nutrients remained close to

the 1973-74 level.

The decrease in fertilizer consumption could have been avoided,

if the industry and the Government had made efforts to increase capacity

utilization as the following calculations show:

If we subtract the Pool Equalization Charge from the statutory

prices of these products, we find that the domestic manufacturers were in a

position to supply urea, AS and CAN, respectively, at Rs. 1,390, Rs. 740 and

Rs. 800 per ton, implying an increases only of 32, 23 and 30 percent over

1/ See Tables 5.3, 5.4 and 5.5.

- 54 -

May 1974 prices0 These prices are much lower compared to what the farmerswere actually faced with in June 1974, and would not have affected thefertilizer consumption adversely, if the domestic industry could produceenough to meet the demand.

It is clear from Table 5010 that capacity utilization was verylow for these products in 1973-74 as well as in 1974-75. Urea plants wereutilizing only 53% of the installed capacity. Similarly, 48% of the CANcapacity was lying idle in 1973-74. The situation was no better in 1974-75than what it was in 1973-74. If these plants could use at least 80% to 90%of their installed capacities, not only India could have saved scarceforeign exchange used in importing urea, AS and CAN, but also it could haveprovided fertilizers to its farmers at a relatively much cheaper rate.Thus, the price differential between indigenously produced and importedfertilizers provides a very strong incentive for India to increase thecapacity utilization and to expand the installed capacity for fertilizerproduction.

Prompted by the price-responsiveness of the fertilizer demand, 1/the Government of India reduced the prices of statutorily controlledfertilizers in July 1975, March 1976, and February and November 1977 byreducing the amount of the Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge. 2/ Thesedownward movements of prices, inter alia, did stimulate fertilizer con-sumption in 1975-76 and 1976-77, 3/

5.2 Pricing of NP and NPK Complex Fertilizers:

Unlike the manufacturers of urea, AS, and CAN, the producers ofNP and NPK complex fertilizers enjoyed the freedom of marketing and pricingtheir products till March 1976. However, they had to consider the pricesfixed by the Central Fertilizer Pool for similar imported materials whichwere freely available. The Pool prices were generally fixed by taking intoaccount the cost of imported fertilizers as well as the cost of indigenouslyproduced fertilizers.

Table 5.11 indicates the prices of different NP-and NPK complexfertilizers, Generally, the prices have increased over time, although adownward trend is perceptible after June 1974, when the prices of allfertilizers climaxed. The retail prices of indigenously produced complexfertilizers are generally higher compared to the prices of the importedfertilizers before March 1976.

1/ Preliminary econometric estimates have revealed short-run and long-runprice elasticity for nitrogen as 0.40 and 1.85.

2/ See Table 5.9.

3/ For details, see section 3.1.

- 55 -

In March 1976, the Government of India introduced a price sub-

sidy of Rs. 1,250 per ton of P 05 on indigenously produced phosphates to

stimulate their,consumption. Uonsequently, the manufacturers of complex

fertilizers cannot' increase the prices of complex fertilizers without prior

approval of the Government, so that the benefit of lower input costs can be

transferred to the farmers.

Table 5.12'indicates the nutrientwise prices of different fer-

tilizers through various fertilizer products. Among straight fertilizers,

urea and SSP provide the minimum cost of nitrogenous and phosphatic fer-

tilizers. Among complex fertilizers, the price of one kilogram of P 02 5

varies very widely among different products. In April, 1976, the price of

one kilbgram .of P-0 was Rs 3.12 from DAP (18-46-0) and Rs. 7.77 from NPK

complex fertilizer 14--28-14), both,domestically produced. From imported

fertilizers, the price'varied between Rs. 3.32 from DAP (18-46-0) and Rs.

7.19-from.NPK complex (19-20-0). An effort should be made to smoothen out

these differences, so that the'price per unit of nutrient (P 0 ) is more or

less equal'from different products. 25

5.3 Pricing of Phosphatic Fertilizers

The 'Central Phosphate Pool,' established in 1948, imported as

well as acquired the domestically produced superphosphates, and distributed

them to the farmers at a reasonable price between 1948 and 1952. The price

paid to the manufacturers was based on a formula established by the Indian

Tariff Board reflecting. the changes in the prices of rock phosphate and

sulphur, the two major raw.materials for superphosphate. Although the Pool

was disbanded in 1952, and the domestic manufacturers were free to market

their products, the Government continued to fix the superphosphate prices

using the formula suggested by the Tariff Commission in 1951. In May 1966,

the Government discontinued .and handed over this job to the Fertilizer

Association of India. Since then, the Fertilizer Association of India has

been fixing the superphosphate prices by using the Tariff Commission's

formula:

Psp = 180 + 0.6 (Pr - 110) + 0.134 (Ps -180) + (Pj - 21),

where Psp = price of one ton:of-superphosphatePr = Ex-works price of one ton of rockphosphate

Ps = Ex-works price of one ton of sulphurPj. = Ex-works price of alkathene-lined jute bags for packing of

one ton of superphosphate.

The constant, 180, represents the base ex-works price of one ton of super-

phosphate for all manufacturing units situated within 100 miles of ports.

The,coefficients1in.the formula indicate the prevailing prices of raw

materials and the quantity of each that went into production of one ton of

superphosphate.

:56 -

In February 1974, the constant,- 180, in the above formula wasincreased to 220 to compensate for the general increase in prices.

The superphosphate prices increased continuously but moderatelyfrom Rs. 177.16 in March 1960, to Rs. 266.88 per ton in August, 1966. Theseincreases were mostly due to increases in the rockphosphate and sulphurprices (Table 5.13). After a modest fall in October 1966, the superphosphateprices increased to Rs. 272.95 per ton in January 1967, and fluctuatedbetween Rs. 272.95 and Rs. 353.00 during 1967 and 1973 period. In January1974, the superphosphate price increased to Rs. 385 per.ton and continued tomove upward rapidly thereafter, till-October 1975. During January 1974 andSeptember 1975, the price of superphosphate increased, by 77%. Although amoderate decrease took place in the price of superphosphate in October,1975,yet it remained significantly higher than what it was in December 1973.Since the higher prices of superphosphates were depressing the consumption ofphosphatic fertilizers, the Government.of India introduced a subsidy of Rs.1,250 per ton of P205 in March 1976, ammounting to Rs. 200 per ton of. 16% WSsuperphosphate. This subsidy helped reduce the prices of phosphatic ferti-lizers in general and that of superphosphate in particular.

Since most of the triple superphosphate is imported, price ofTSP was relatively higher at Rs. 2,600 per ton in March 1978. The TSP pricehas more than doubled between 1971 and 1974 and nearly tripled during 1968-74(Table 5.13).

5.4 Pricing of Potassic Fertilizers:

Muriate of Potash (MOP) and Sulphate of Potash (SOP), the twomajor sources of potassic fertilizers in India, are imported by the Mineralsand Metals Trading Corporation of India,. and are distributed by the IndianPotash Limited, Madras. The retail prices of MOP and SOP are fixed by theGovernment, although not statutorily.

Between 1960 and 1970, the price of MOP (60% K20) fluctuatedbetween Rs. 273 and Rs. 483, whereas that of 50% K20 MOP varied betweenRs. 220 and Rs. 463 per ton (Table 5.14). After 1971, India had been.importing 61% K20 MOP whose retail price increased from Rs. 543 in March1972 to Rs. 1,220 in June 1974-a 125 percent increase.. Against this, the MOPprices increased only by 4% during 1969 to 1972 period. Similarly, the SOPprices increased slowly before 1972 and nearly doubled between 1972 and1974.

Like the higher prices of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers,the increased prices of MOP and SOP reduced the consumption of potassicfertilizers by 25% between 1973-74 and 1975-76. To prevent the furtherdecreases, and to stimulate the consumption of potassic fertilizers in orderto achieve a better balance between N, P, and K, the Government of Indiadecreased the MOP and SOP prices in July 1975, March 1976 and February 1977.At present, the retail price of MOP is Rs. 805 per ton while that of SOP isRs. 140 per ton.

- 57 -

5.5 Prices of Fertilizer Raw Materials:

Prices of raw materials, inter alia, play an important role

in determining the prices of final products. An increase in the price

of raw material, ceteris paribus, will lead to an increase in the product

price. Table 5.15 indicates the prices of naphtha, furnace oil, rock phos-

phate and sulphur (imported as well as indigenous) during 1970-76 period.

Before June, 1970, the price of naphtha was Rs. 104.70 per ton at Calcutta

port. Between June 1970 and June 1974, the price of naphtha nearly quad-

rupled - from Rs. 129.20 on June 1, 1970 to Rs. 501.36 on June 1, 1974. In

September 1975, the price of naphtha was further increased by Rs. 110.0 per

ton, thereby increasing the current price of naphtha to Rs. 611.36 per

ton.

A similar trend is noticeable in the price of furnace oil and

imported rock as well as sulphur. That is, the prices prevailing after June

1974 are two-to-three time higher compared to those prevailing before June

1974. Unlike the price of naphtha, prices of Jordan (70/72% BPL) rockphos-

phate and sulphur have decreased significatnly after April 1976, perhaps, due

to an increased supply of these two products in the world market. In April-

December 1977, the price of Jordan rockphosphate was Rs. 415 per ton. Prices

of Florida, Morocco and Senegal rockphosphate also decreased considerably

during 1975-76 and 1976-77 period.

Although the price of Udaipur rockphosphate also increased in

June 1974, the magnitude of increase was much smaller compared to imported

rocks. The price of Udaipur rockphosphate was Rs. 300 per ton in March

1978.

5.6 The Marathe Committee Report, 1976:

The pricing policy of the Government of India is based on the

recommendations of the Sivaraman Committee on Fertilizers, 1965. Since the

consumption, production and marketing of fertilizers have changed signifi-

cantly during the last 12 years, a need was felt by both the industry as well

as by the government to critically evaluate the existing methods of price

determination of fertilizer products. Hence a Committee headed by Mr. S. S.

Marathe, Secretary, Department of Industrial Development, was appointed in

January 1976 to evaluate the pricing methods for different fertilizer pro-

ducts. The Committee has submitted its interim report to Government on the

pricing policy for urea, ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate in

July 1977.

The Government of India announced a new fertilizer price policy in

November 1977, under which a maximum retail price, a maximum ex-factory

delivery price (applicable to all units), and a fair ex-factory retention

price (for each unit producing urea, AS and CAN) were established. The

individual ex-factory retention prices were calculated by the Marathe Com-

mittee in such a way that a post-tax return of 12% on net worth was assured

(after deducting the expenses on raw materials, utilities, maintenance and

- 58 -

other costs) on the assumption that the factory utilized 80% of its installedcapacity. The difference between the maximum ex-factory price and theindividual ex-factory retention price would be credited/debited to theFertilizer Price Fund Account administered by the Fertilizer IndustryCoordination Committee.

The maximum ex-factory price of Rs. 1,158 per ton of urea wasarrived at by the Marathe Committee by deducting the excise duty (Rs. 174),the Fertilizer Pool Equation Charge (Rs. 65), the equated freight charge(Rs. 38) and the dealers margin (Rs. 115) from the statutorily fixed maximumretail price of Rs. 1,550 per ton of urea. This price will be effectivebetween November 1, 1977 and March 1, 1979 (see 5.16).

The ex-factory retention prices for various units producing urea,AS and CAN are indicated in Table 5.17. Of 21 units producing urea, only2 units, viz., IFFCO, and GSFC, have retention prices lower than the maximumex-factory.price of Rs. 1,158. All other units have significantly higherretention prices, and therefore, the production of urea will remain highlysubsidized till March 1979.

The maximum ex-factory prices for ammonium sulphate and calciumammonium nitrate are fixed at Rs. 625 and Rs. 686 per ton repectively. Theretention prices for six steel plants, producing ammonium sulphate usingby-product coke-oven-gas as feedstock are identical to the maximum ex-factory price of A.S. Hence these plants would not need any subsidy from theFertilizer Price Fund Account. The Sindri, Namrup, Ennore, Cochin (FACT)and Baroda plants will be subsidized by a margin of Rs. 194. Similarly, theproduction of CAN will also be subsidized.

6.0 Distribution of Fertilizer Products

In the late forties and early fifties, The Central Fertilizer Pooldistributed the fertilizer products to the State Governments and the CommodityBoards. The State Governments generally used the services of the cooperativesas well as the Department of Agriculture to distribute the fertilizers amongthe cultivators. During the First Five Year Plan, the Planning Commissionrecommended that the State Governments should utilize the services of coopera-tives to distribute fertilizers.

The National Cooperative Development and Warehousing Board in 1957,the Working Group of the National Development Council in 1958, and the Nala-garh Committee in 1958, further stressed the near monopoly role for the co-operatives in the field of fertilizer distribution. Although the Central Gov-ernment always advised the State Governments to use the services of the co-operatives, the success of the cooperative sector in distributing the ferti-lizers varied from state to state. In Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, MadhyaPradesh, Maharashtra, Mysore (Karnataka), Orissa, Punjab and Rajasthan, thecooperatives enjoyed a monopoly position in fertilizer distribution. Uttar

- 59 -

Pradesh continued to maintain government agencies in addition to cooperatives.

In Asam, the fertilizer distribution was entrusted entirely to private traders

whereas in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, private trade and cooperatives

functioned side by side. In Himachal Pradesh, the State Government controlled

the distribution of fertilizers through its own distribution centers.

The Fertilizer Distribution Enquiry Committe, 1959-60 and the

Sivaraman Committee, 1965 studied the fertilizer distribution patterns pre-

vailing in the fifties and early sixties, and recommended that private trade

should be allowed to distribute fertilizers, and the indigenous manufacturers

should have the 'freedom of marketing' their own products. Gradually, the

Government allowed the private traders through the licensing system to dis-tribute fertilizers. This policy toned down the monopoly of cooperatives.

In 1969, the Governmenl replaced the cumbersome licensing procedures by a

simple registration system. This change encouraged the private manufactures

to develop their own distribution channels, and resulted into increased num-

ber of retail networks. By 1971, the number of private retail selling points

increased to 51,000 as against 33,000 in 1968-69.

The pattern, which emerged after The New Fertilizer Policy in 1966,

was such that the imported fertilizers were distributed solely by the coopera-

tives while the indigenous manufacturers distributed their products through

cooperatives as well as private trade depending on their relative efficiency

and effectiveness in a given area. During 1966 to 1968 period when there

was a slump in demand, compared to available supply, the Government allowed

the private traders to distribute imported fertilizers. But, once the

shortages were experienced, the Government reserved the distribution of the

imported fertilizers for the cooperatives alone. With limitecl availability

of imported fertilizers, the Central Government and State Governments asked

the private manufacturers to increase the share of cooperatives in fertilizer

distribution. Furthermore, the State Governments also argued that adultera-

tion and other malpractices by unscrupulous elements can only be effectively

checked if the cooperatives distribute a larger share of indigenous ferti-

lizers as well. The indigenous manufacturers disagreed with the State Gov-

ernments. Also, there was a disagreement between the manufacturers and

cooperatives about the distribution margins recommended by the National Com-

mission on Agriculture. To resolve these differences, a Committee, headed

by Mr. M.A. Quraishi, Secretary, Department of Cooperation, was appointed

in 1972. The Committee recommended:

(i) The share of cooperative and public agencies might not be less

than 50 percent and may range up to 75 percent; the exact

share around 50% must be negotiated between manufacturers

and state cooperatives;

(ii) The percentage share should not be fixed statutorily;

(iii) Where the percentage share of institutional agencies is

already above 50%, it would not be reduced;

- 60 -

(iv) The existing agreements between the manufacturers and theirdealers, approved by the Government, would not get affectedby these recommendations.

The Quraishi Committee also recommended that the distribution mar-gins should be increased from Rs. 80.0 to Rs. 95.0 per ton of urea (Table6.1). The enhanced margin will, however, be applicable only if the sellingprice of urea was increased by the Government. The National Commission onAgriculture recommended a margin of Rs. 122.40.

The current distribution margins for urea, ammonium sulphate andcalcium ammonium nitrate are, respectively, Rs. 115.0, Rs. 75.0 and Rs. 70.0(Table 6.2). The Government has not indicated the detailed break-up of thesemargins.

Figure 6.1 indicates the present fertilizer distribution network.The Central Fertilizer Pool distributes the imported nitrogenous and complexfertilizers to Commodity Boards and State Governments. The State Governmentsuse the services of the apex cooperative marketing societies, agro-industriescorporations, agricultural supply organizations (of the State Department ofAgriculture), mixture manufacturers and private distributors to distributefertilizers among wholesalers. However, not all the states use all theseagencies. States in the north, central, and west zones rely heavily on thecooperatives while those in the south and east use predominantly privatedistributors to distribute fertilizers among wholesalers. The cooperativeand private wholesalers supply fertilizers to the cooperative and privateretailers, who in turn, sell them to the farmers. The domestic manufacturersand the Indian Potash Ltd. also use the services of the cooperatives as wellas private wholesalers and retailers to distribute the fertilizers. In somecases, the manufacturers have opened their own depots at the block/mandilevels and sell the fertilizers directly to the farmers. Likewise, some ofthe state governments, like Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, sell ferti-lizers to the farmers through the Department of Agriculture depots along withcooperatives and private traders.

6.1 Dealers

The cooperatives have historically occupied a dominant place infertilizer distribution in the past. Prior to October 1966, when the newfertilizer policy was enunciated, the Central Fertilizer Pool distributedall nitrogenous fertilizers through cooperatives. The private retailershandled only superphosphate, mixtures and domestically produced complexfertilizers. In 1966-67, there were 48,031 cooperative retail sale pointsfor the distribution of fertilizers. As the manufacturers developed theirown distribution channels under the "freedom of marketing" principle of theNew Fertilizer Policy of 1965, the number of cooperative retail sale pointsdecreased to 30,670 in 1970-71 as against 48,031 in 1966-67. On the otherhand, the number of private retail sale points increased from approximately33,000 in 1968-69 to 51,000 in 1970-71 (Table '6.5).

IMrCYi7D ehCIL1SM IDI CC. U3 FERUT LI SI.'I Tl ';.C ::S AID C'D IJPCWLD

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M B.-All. CC<:p EhAl VH | | PETA 1. | P hlV A"'g |FgSOCuIES 61 FDeLErtilize D itb ution I F Ch

Figure 6.1: Fertilizer Distribution Channels

- 62-

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CR 2 S63 N ASAINI Xi

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72~~~~~~C 36 29 EV 64 23- 22

Figure~~~~~~~~~P 6.2 Esiae aubro hlsl n ealfriie elr Qtatwise& Chnnelise

- 63 -

The Fertilizer Association of India conducted an extensive survey

of the marketing and distribution facilities in the country. According to

survey estimates, there were 6,058 wholesale and 56,867 retail outlets in

1969-70. Of these, 56% outlets belonged to the cooperative sector, and 44

percent to the private sector (Table 6.3).

Of all the dealers, south zone accounted for approximately 29% and

east zone for 23%. North and west zone, each accounted for nearly 14% of the

total outlets, leaving about one-fifth of the outlets for the central zone.

Central, north and west: zones had predominantly cooperative outlets while the

private retail outlets dominated in the south as well as east zones. The

spread of private retaLl net-work in the south and east zones is, perhaps,

due to the existence of private manufacturers like EID-Parry, and early users

of plantation boards.

At the state level, Tamil Nadu had the maximum number of retail

outlets, followed by Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

These five states accounted for approximately 44% of the total retail outlets

in the country.

The cooperative sector accounted for more than 80% of the retail

outlets in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, Delhi,

Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Jammu and Kashmir (Table 6.4). On the other hand,

Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh had predominantly private

retailers. Punjab had the maximum number of cooperative retailers as against

West Bengal's highest private retailers.

6.2 Location and Market Coverage

The cooperative and private retailers as well as wholesalers have

shown marked differences, at the state level, in locating their sale depots.

In most states, the cooperative wholesalers were concentrated at the block

or village-mandi level while the retailers were located in the interior mar-

kets, mainly at the village level. However, in some states like Maharashtra,

Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, the cooperative wholesalers operated

from the district headquarters too.

The private wholesalers, like their cooperative counterparts, pre-

ferred blocks or village-mandis as their headquarters. In Karnataka, Tamil

Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Punjab, the private wholesalers were mostly concen-

trated at the district: level.

The private retailers, unlike their cooperative counterparts, were

mostly concentrated at the village/mandi, and in some cases, at the block

levels. Since many of- the villages are located quite far from the mandis/

blocks, in the isolated areas, the private retailers were less accessible

to an average farmer compared to the cooperative retailers. The preference

of the private retailers at the mandi/block level might have been dictated

by the Smithian and Schumpeterian considerations, viz., size of market. Since

the mandis and block headquarters are generally market centers, where the

- 64 -

farmers come to sell their agricultural produce, and to buy non-agriculturalproducts, a private retailer can expect to have a reasonably good demand forhis products, viz., fertilizers, assuring an adequate return on his investedcapital. However, there are Sayian considerations too. That is, supplycreates its own demand. If the retailers go to interior villages, and dif-fuse the fertilizers among the farmers through adequate sale efforts, theycan create demand for their products, viz, fertilizers. Furthermore, nearlythree-fourths of the district in India consume very minimal amount of fer-tilizers. Hence, the private, as well as cooperative retailers must diffuseto interior rural areas in order to enhance fertilizer consumption in India.

The market coverage of these retail outlets appears very inadequate.There were 576 thousand villages and 56,867 retail outlets in 1969-70, therebygiving a ratio of approximately 10 villages per retail outlet. In practice,each retail outlet was serving between 2 and 50 villages. Thus, many blocks,and villages therein, did not have any facilities for supplying fertilizersto the farmers.

In 1975-76, the number of sale points increased to 94,623. Assumingthat nearly 10 percent of these outlets were wholesalers, we are left withnearly 85,000 retailers to serve the farming community, implying a ratio ofnearly 7.0 villages per retail outlet. Although the average number of vil-lages served by a retailer has decreased nearly by one-third, yet this ratiois very high to effectively cover the entire farming population in India.Moreover, the distribution of these retail outlets is very uneven.

The Government has set a target of having a retail point within 5miles radius of every village in the country. This will imply a mean densityof four villages for every retailer. Hence, the industry and the Governmentshould make every effort to promote fertilizer use by expanding the salepoints into the remote areas of the country. The cooperatives must alsodiffuse to the isolated villages.

6.3 Fertilizer Promotion Programs.

In order to arrest the further decrease in fertilizer consumptiondue to price increases of June 1974, the Government of India not only reducedthe fertilizer prices, but also selected 58 districts in Rabi 1976-77 topromote the use of fertilizer consumption. Although these districts werewell-endowed with irrigation facilities, the level of fertilizer use wasrather low. Under the Intensive Fertilizer Promotion Campaign, 58 districtsscattered all over the country were selected, and the extension workers weredeputed to work with farmers to promote fertilizer use. As a result of con-centrated efforts in guiding and training the farmers for fertilizer use,the fertilizer consumption in these districts increased significantly. Thefertilizer consumption in IFPC districts, taken together, increased by 26.5%in Kharif 1976 compared to Kharif 1975 as against 18% increase for all-India(Table 6.7). Although entire additional 8.5% percentage points cannotbe attributed to promotion efforts, a significant proportion of this mustbe due to these promotional efforts. The success achieved by the Indo-German

- 65 -

Fertilizer Educational Project 1/ in 11 districts of West Bengal further

indicates the importance of educational and training efforts in promoting and

accelerating the consumption of fertilizer nutrients.

The FCI, IFFCO and other manufacturers have also started their

own promotion programs by selecting a few districts and/or a few villages

in a districts, and training the farmers about the use, and benefits of

chemical fertilizers. Under its village adoption program, the IFFCO unit

adopted 178 villages in 1978. 2/ Under this program, the villagers are not

only given lessons about "balanced nutrients" and package of "improved

practices" but also arrangements are made for adequate and timely supply of

fertilizer, improved seeds, and credit. Also, the IFFCO representatives try

to coordinate the activities of different professionals engaged in rural

development programs. The use of fertilizer nutrients, improved seeds and

cooperative credit has increased significantly in the adopted villages. For

example, the fertilizer consumption in Jharbalapura village of Bundi district

(Rajasthan) was 2322 kgs on a cultivated land of 705 hectares, with 73% of

it being irrigated. In July 1973, the village was adopted as an "IFFCO

Village." As a result of the adoption of village and implementation of

balanced fertilization program, area under high-yielding varieties of paddy

and wheat increased, respectively, from 24 and 259 hectares in 1972-73 to 132

and 305 hectares in 1976-77, whereas fertilizer consumption increased from

3,322 kgs in 1972-73 tc 19,302 kgs in 1976-77. 3/ As other adopted villages

have experienced similar successes, the village adoption program should

be extended to other remaining villages in order to promote fertilizer use

and agricultural output.

6.4 Transportation of Fertilizers: The RITES Study: 4/

As the demand for fertilizer nutrients accelerates in the country-

side of India, the transportation of fertilizer products from the factories

and ports to the farmers in villages acquires significance. The distribution

of fertilizer nutrients involves three phases, viz., primary, secondary and

tertiary. In the primary phase, the fertilizer products are shipped from

factories to warehouses (mostly at the district headquarters), whereas the

secondary phase consists of moving the fertilizers from warehouses to dealers.

Approximately 80% of the primary, and 30% of the secondary movement of fer-

tilizer-products is handled by railways. The transportation of fertilizer

from the dealers to the farmers is called the tertiary movement, which is

mostly handled by roadways. The transportation cost constitut:es nearly

one-third of the total distribution costs (see Table 6.8).

1/ See NCAER, an Appraisal of Indo-German Fertilizer Educational

Project, 1978.

2/ See IFFCO, Village Adoption Program, 1978.

3/ Ibid.

4/ Rail India Transport and Economic Services, Ltd., Fertilizer and Raw

Material Transportation in India: An Optimization Study, Vols. I,

II and III, New Delhi, 1978.

- 66 -

Railways play an important role in the transportation of fertilizerproducts in India. Approximately, 80% of the imported, and 75% to 80% of theindigenously manufactured fertilizers are moved by the railways. In 1975-76,railways moved 7.2 million tons of fertilizer products and are anticipatedto move 13 million tons in 1978-79 (see Table 6.9). Between 1973-74 and1975-76, the rail coefficient of fertilizer traffic 1/ varied between 2.9 and3.6. Assuming an average coefficient of 3.0, the expected rail traffic wouldbe around 23 million tons in 1983-84 and 33 million tons in 1988-89.

Along with increase in fertilizer traffic, average lead hasincreased from 675 kilometers to 859 kilometers and the trans-shipment ofproducts increased from 1.02 million tons to 1.53 million tons during 1966-67to 1975-76 period. 2/ Both of these factors contribute significantly towardsthe cost of transportation. It has been estimated that each trans-shipmentcosts 11.26 paise per ton while the average cost per ton kilometer is around6.7 paise on broad guage and 9.45 paise on meter gauge. The RITES studyindicates that 'average lead' can be reduced to 507 kms., along with asignificant reduction in transshipments, by following their rationalizeddistribution plan. Under this Plan, 139 nodal points are selected by con-sidering the level of consumption and irrigation potential in the surroundingvillages, transportation accessibility (like on the rail-head), warehousingfacilities and administrative infrastructure at the nodal point, inter-nodaldistances, and location of mixing or granulation plants. Districts areallocated to these nodal points and consumption forecasts for 1978-79 arederived at each nodal point. 3/ Given the consumption forecasts, a linearprogramming model is used to assign these 139 nodal points to differentfertilizer plants and/or ports in such a way that the total cost of meetingthe fertilizer demand at all nodal points is minimum. Table 6.9 indicatesthe Rationalized Distribution Plan. The study suggests to use product-exchange among producers so that criss-crossing of fertilizers can bereduced. Also, roads, as against railways, should be used for a distance ofless than 100 kms. The study predicts a severe transportation problem inWestern India as the existing railway capacity is nearly saturated, while newfertilizer plants are being built there to take advantage of natural gasavailable from the Bombay High and Cambay basins.

1/ Ratio of fertilizer products in tons to consumption of fertilizernutrients in tons.

2/ See RITES, op cit, pp. VIII/2,8.

3/ The RITES study used the FAI's quadratic projections for each state andapportioned them among districts on the basis of a three-year averageof a district's share in State's total consumption.

- 67 -

The implementation of the RITES plan requires the creation of a

Central Marketing Authority to supervise the activities of manufacturers in

in order to restrict them to their assigned nodal points. This acts against

the 'freedom of marketing' principle enunciated earlier. However, the results

of the study should be useful in promoting voluntary product-exchange among

the manufacturers as well as in building additional capacities for transport-

ing fertilizers.

Annex A

Statistical Tables

LIST OF TABLES

1.1 India: Important Socio-economic Characteristics

1.2 World: Area and Population

1.3 India: Net Domestic Product at Factor Cost Originatingin Agriculture, 1961-74 (at current prices)

1.4 India: Est:Lmated Public Sector Outlay on Rural Development

1.5 India: Plan Outlays by Sectors

2.1 India: Salient Features of Indian Agriculture

2.2 India: Distribution of Annual Rainfall

2.3 India: Index Numbers of Agricultural Production

2.4 India: Production of Foodgrains

2.5 India: Plan Expenditures in Agriculture

2.6 India: Plan Targets in Agriculture

2.7 India: Size Distribution of Agricultural Holding

2.8 India: Cropping Intensity and Irrigation by Size of

Holding, 1970-71

2.9 India: Fertilizer Use by Holding Size, 1975-76

2.10 World: Size of Holding, Fertilizer Consumption and Yield

1974-75

2.11 Levels of Agricultural Development in India at the District

Level for the Triennium 1970-71 to 1972-73

2.12 Growth of Agricultural Output in India at the District Level

Between the Trienniums 1962-63/1964-65 to 1970-71/1972-73

3.1 India: Fertilizer Sector - Important Indicators

3.2 India: Fertilizer Nutrient Consumption

3.3 India: Grovwth Rates of Fertilizer Consumption

3.4 India: Zonewise Consumption of Fertilizers, 1969-78

3.5 India: Zonewise Consumption of Fertilizers, 1969-78 (percentage

distribution)

3.5A India: Statewise Consumption of Fertilizers,1967-68 to 1976-77

2

3.6 India: Statewise Share of Gross Cropped Area and FertilizerConsumption, 1970-71 and 1977-78

3.7 India: District-wise Fertilizer Consumption, 1974-75

3.8 India: Fertilizer Consumption per Hectare of Cropped Land

3.8A. World: Fertilizer Consumption per Hectare of Agricultural Land,1975-76 and 1976-77

3.9 India: Statewise Consumption of Plan Nutrients per Hectare ofof Gross Cropped Area, 1975-76 and 1976-77.

3.9A India: Statewise Fertilizer Consumption on Fertilized Land, 1975-76

3.10 India: Seasonwise Consumption of Fertilizers

3.11 India: Fertilizer Consumption by Crops and States, 1975-76

3.12 India: N:P:K: Ratio in Fertilizer Consumption, 1952-53 to1977-78

3.13 India: Statewise Nutrient (N:P:K:) Consumption Ratio,1975-76 and 1976-77

3.15 India: Fertilizer Consumption Forecasts, 1978-79

3.16 India: Coefficients of Regressions of the Donde-Brown Study

3.17 India: The Donde-Brown Projections of Demand for Fertilizers

3.18 India: Statewise Donde-Brown Projections of N and P 205and Actuals, 1973-74

3:18A India: Projections of Fertilizer Demand by Planning Commission,and the Minsitry of Agriculture

3.19 India: The Parikh-Srinivasan Optimum Requirement of Fertilizers

3.20 India: The NCA Estimates of Future Demand for Fertilizers

3.21 India: Removal of Nutrients by Foodgrain and Non-foodgrainCrops: Actual and Projected

3.22 India: Estimated Fertilizer Requirement by 1978-79

3.23 India: The FAI Estimates of Demand for Fertilizers Basedon Quadratic Specification

3.24 India: Statewise Forecasts for Fertilizer Nutrients, 1978-79 to1988-89

4.1 India: Licensed Capacity of Fertilizers - Material-wise andNutrient-wise, 1950-77

3

4.2 India: Share of Fertilizer Capacity under Various Stagesof Implementation - Material-wise

4.3 India: Share of Fertilizer Capacity Under Various Stages ofImplementation - Nutrient-wise and Sector-wise

4.4 India: Statewise Licensed Capacity of Fertilizers, 1978

4.5 India: Statewise Licensed Capacity of Fertilizers (percentagedistribution), 1978

4.6 India: Statewise Fertilizer Factories, 1978

4.7 India: Capacity Utilization in Fertilizer Industry, 1972-73to 1976-77

4.8 India: Production and Capacity Utilization of Nitrogen

4.9 India: Capacity Utilization in Phosphates

4.10 India: Factors Causing Loss in Production of Nitrogen, 1972-73to 1976-77

4.12 India: Chronology of Fertilizer Manufacture

4.13 India: Fertilizer Nutrient Production

4.14 India: Rate of Growth of Nitrogenous and Phosphatic Fertilizer,19.52-53 to 1977-78

4.15 India: Rate of Growth of Production of Nitrogenous andPhosphatic Fertilizers, 1961-62 to 1977-78

4.16 India: Statewise Production of Nitrogenous and PhosphaticFertilizers

4.17 India: Zonewise Production of Fertilizer Nutrients(percentage distribution)

4.18 India: Product Composition of Nitrogenous Fertilizers

4.19 India: Product Composition of Phosphatic Fertilizers

4.20 India: Installed Capacity of Nitrogenous Fertilizersaccording to Sources of Feedstock

4.21 India: Capacity of Phosphate and the Raw Materials

4.22 India: Production of Raw Materials Used in FertilizerIndustry

4.23 India: Production of Rock Phosphate and Sulphur, 1969-70to 1976-77

4.24 India: Rock Phosphate Resources

4

4.25 India: Consumption of Raw Materials in Fertilizer Industry

4.26 India: Fertilizer Imports

4.27 India: Import of Nitrogenous Fertilizers

4.28 India: Import of Phosphatic and Complex Fertilizers

4.29 India: Import of Potassic Fertilizers

4.30 India: Import of Fertilizer Materials, 1967-68 to 1976-77

4.31 India: Ratio of Production and Imports to Total Consumption

4.32 India: Consumption, Production, Imports, and Excess Supply ofNitrogenous Fertilizers.

4.33 India: Consumption, Production, Imports and Excess Supply ofPhosphatic Fertilizers

4.34A India: Expected Production of 'N' from Operating Units andFirm Projects

4.34B India: Nitrogen Capacity Planning for 100% Self-Sufficiency

4.34C India: Summary of Demand and Supply at 100% Self-Sufficiency

4.35A India: Expected Production of P 205

4.35B India: Capacity Planning for 100% Self-Sufficiency in P205

4.35C India: Summary of Supply and Demand at 100% Self-Suffiency

4.36 India: Import of Rockphosphate and Sulphur

5.1 India: Current Prices of Fertilizers in Terms of Nutrients

5.2 India: Price of Ammonium Sulphate, 1944-57

5.3 India: Price of Ammonium Sulphate, 1957-77

5.4 India: Price of Urea, 1952 to 1977

5.5 India: Price of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate, 1954-77

5.6 India: Price of Ammonium Sulphate Nitrate, 1955-75

5.7 India: Price of Ammonium Chloride, 1962-77

5.8 India: Proportion of Indigenously Produced NitrogenousFertilizers Acquired by the Central Fertilizer Pool,1965-70

5.9 India: The Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge, 1974-77

5.10 India: Production, Distribution and Imports of Fertilizers,1973-74 and 1974-75

5

5.11 India: Prices of NP and NPK Complex Fertilizers

5.12 India: Nutrient-wise Fertilizer Prices

5.13 India: Super Phosphate Prices

5.14 India: Potassic Fertilizers Prices

5.15 India: Prices of Fertilizer Raw Materials

5.16 India: The Break-up of the Maximum Retail Price of Urea

5.17 India: Ex-factory Retention Prices

6.1 India: Distribution Margins for Urea

6.2 India: Break-up of Margins Recommended by the Quraishi Committee

6.3 India: Estimated Number of Dealers - Zonewise and Statewise,

1969-70

6.4 India: Cooperative and Private Distributors, 1969-70

6.5 India: Nunmber of Sale Points, 1969-77

6.6 India: Statewise Distribution of Sale Points, 1976-77

6.7 India: Achievements in IFPC Districts

6.8 India: Share of Transportation Cost in Distribution Costs

6.9 India: Transport of Fertilizer Products by Railways

6.10 India: Rationalized Distribution Plan, 1978-79

A.1

Table 1.1

India: Important Socioeconomic Characteristics

Variable Unit m Year Quantity

1. Area million 1971 3.3

sq.km

2. Population millions 1971 548.0

3. Population dens:ity number 1971 177.0

4. Rate of populat:Lon growth % 1961-71 2.2

5. Urban population % 1971 19.9

6. Rural population X 1971 80.1

7. Literacy % 1971 29.5

8. Working population millions 1971 180.4

9. Ratio of working to total population % 1971 32.9

10. Proportion of working populationengaged in agriculture % 1971 69.7

11. Net national product (at current Rs. l

prices) billion 1973-74 491.5

12. Per capita income (at current prices) U.S.$ 1975 150.0

13. Rate of growth of NNP (at 1960-61prices) % 1961-74 3.3

14. Rate of growth of per capita NNP(at 1960-61 prices) % !1961-74 1.1

15. Proportion of NDP originating inagriculture % .1973-74 49.5

116. Proportion of NDP originating in

manufacturing, construction andutilities % 1973-74 18.8

I I . i~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~___________________________________________________

A.2

Table 1.2

World - Area and Population, 1969

Country Population Area Densities(million) __('000 km)

1. Australia 12.3 7,687 2

2. Burma 6.7 181 37

3. Brazil 90.8 8,512 11

4. Canada 21.1 9,976 2

5. Ceylon (Sri Lanka) 12.2 | 66 187

6. China (Mainland) 740.0 9,561 77

7. France 50.3 547 92

8. Germany (F.R.) 58.7 t 248 237

9. India 537.0 3,268 167

10. Indonesia 116.0 1,492 78

11. Japan 102.3 370 277

12. Malaysia 10.6 333 32

13. Mexico 48.9 1,973 25

14. Nigeria 64.6 924 70

15. Pakistan 111.8 I 947 118

16. Philippines 37.2 | 300 124

17. U.A.R. 32.5 1 1,001 32

18. U.K. 55.5 244 228

19. U.S.A. 203.2 9,363 22

20. U.S.S.R. 240.6 22,402 11

World 3552.0 135,772 26

* Mid-year estimates.

Source: United Nations, Statistical Year Book, 1970.

Table 1.5

Plan Outlays by Sectors

(KS. crores)

First Plan Second Plan Third Plan Annual Fourth Plan Fifth Plan Draft Five(1951-46) (1956-61) (1961-66). (1966-69) (1969-74) (1974-79) Year Plan

(1978-83)

1. Agriculture andallied Sectors 290 549 1089 1167 2728 4302 8600

(14.8) (11.7) (12.7) (17.3) (17.2) (11.0) (12.4)

2. Irrigation & Flood 434 430 665 457 1087 4226 9650Control (22.2) (9.2) (7.8) (6.8) (6.8) (10.7) (13.9)

3. Power '49 452 1252 1182 2448 10219* 20800*(7.6) (9.7) (14.6) (17.5) (15.4) (26.2) (30.0)

4. Village and Small 41 187 241 144 293 510 1410industries (2.1) (4.0) (2.8) (2.1) (1.8) (1.3) (2.0)

5. Industry and 55 938 1726 1575 3338 6852 8940minerals (2.8) (20.1) (20.1) (23.3) (21.0) (17.4) (12.9)

6. Transportation and 518 1261 2112 1239 3237 6917 10562communications (26.4) (27.0) (24.6) (18.3) (20.4) (17.6) (15.3)

7. Soctal Services 993 2771 *6224 9355(14.7) (17.5 (15.9) (13.5)

a. Education andScientific Research 149 273 660 374 963 1285 1955

(7.6) (5.8) (7.7) (5.5) (6.1) (3.3) (2.8)

b. Health and Family 98 216 251 215 749 1179 2095welfare (5.0) (4.6) (2.9) (3.2) (4.7) (3.0) (3.0)

c. Others 225 366 581 404 1059 3760 5305(11.5) (7.8) (6.8) (6.0) (6.7) (9.6) (7.6)

Total 1960 4672 8577 6757 15902 39322 69380(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

* Expenditure on energy, science and technology

Source: 1) India: A Reference Annual, 19762) Fourth Five Year Plan, 1967-743) Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83

A.6

Table 2.1

India: Salient Features of Indian Agriculture

Variable Unit Year Quantity

1. Net area sown m. hectares 1972-73 136.80

2. Total cropped area . 161.53

3. Net irrigated area . 31.95

4. Gross irrigated area . 39.09

5. Ratio of net area sown tototal geographical area % 44.70

6. Cropping intensity 2 . 118.00

7. Ratio of net irrigatedarea to net area sown 2 n 23.40

8. Ratio of gross irrigatedarea to total cropped area % n 24.20

8a. Proportion of total croppedarea devoted to foodgrains 2 1973-74 75.30

9. Foodgrains output m. tons 1977-78 121.0

10. Rate of growth of food-grains output % 1950-75 3.6

11. Rate of growth ofagricultural output 2 1950-75 3.1

12. Consumption of fertilizers(per hectare) N kgs 1977-78 17.8

P0 it" 5.3K2 5 of~~~~~, 3.1

NPK to 26.2

13. Area under high-yielding million 1976-77 34.55varieties hectare

14. Ratio of area under HYVsto total cropped area 2 1976-77 20.32

15. Villages electrified 2 1976 31.80

16. Gini index of landconcentration no. 1970-71 0.62

Sources: Compiled from data in (i) Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76;(ii) Agricultural Census, 1970-71; (iii) India - A ReferenceAnnual. 1976, (iv) Draft Five Year Plan 1q7R-RI

Table 1.5

Plan Outlays by Sectors

I.'. cEULej

First Plan Second Plan Third Plan Annual Fourth Plan Fifth Plan Draft Five

(1951-46) (1956-61) (1961-66). (1966-69) (1969-74) (1974-79) Year Plan(1978-83)

1. Agriculture andallied Sectors 290 549 1089 1167 2728 4302 8600

(14.8) (11.7) (12.7) (17.3) (17.2) (11.0) (12.4)

2. Irrigation 6 Flood 434 430 665 457 1087 4226 9650Control (22.2) (9.2) (7.8) (6.8) (6.8) (10.7) (13.9)

3. Power 149 452 1252 1182 2448 10219* 20800*

(7.6) (9.7) (14.6) (17-5) (15.4) (26.2) (30.0)

4. Village and Small 41 187 241 144 293 510 1410

industries (2.1) (4.0) (2.8) (2.1) (1.8) (1.3) (2.0)

5. Industry and 55 938 1726 1575 3338 6852 8940

minerals (2.8) (20.1) (20.1) (23.3) (21.0) (17.4) (12.9)

6. Transportation and 518 1261 2112 1239 3237 6917 10562

communications (26.4) (27.0) (24.6) (18.3) (20.4) (17.6) (15.3)

7. Social Services 993 2771 6224 9355(14.7) (17.5 (15.9) (13.5)

a. Education andScientific Research 149 .273 660 374 963 1285 1955

(7.6) (5.8) (7.7) (5.5) (6.1) (3.3) (2.8)

b. Health and Family 98 216 251 215 749 1179 2095welfare (5.0) (4.6) (2.9) (3.2) (4.7) (3.0) (3-0)

c. Others 225 366 581 404 1059 3760 5305(11.5) (7.8) (6.8) (6.0) (6.7) (9.6) (7.6)

Total 1960 4672 8577 6757 15902 39322 69380

(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

* Expenditure on energy, science and technology

Source: 1) India: A Reference Annual, 19762) Fourth Five Year Plan, 1967-743) Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83

A.6

Table 2.1

India: Salient Features of Indian Agriculture

Variable Unit Year Quantity

1. Net area sown m. hectares 1972-73 136.80

2. Total cropped area . of 161.53

3. Net irrigated area it of 31.95

4. Gross irrigated area . of 39.09

5. Ratio of net area sown tototal geographical area % . 44.70

6. Cropping intensity % it 118.00

7. Ratio of net irrigatedarea to net area sown % 23.40

8. Ratio of gross irrigatedarea to total cropped area % 24.20

8a. Proportion of total croppedarea devoted to foodgrains % 1973-74 75.30

9. Foodgrains output m. tons 1977-78 121.0

10. Rate of growth of food-grains output Z 1950-75 3.6

11. Rate of growth ofagricultural output % 1950-75 3.1

12. Consumption of fertilizers(per hectare) N kgs 1977-78 17.8

P205 " 5.3

K20 to 3.1

NPK it 26.2

13. Area under high-yielding million 1976-77 34.55varieties hectare

14. Ratio of area under HYVsto total cropped area % 1976-77 20.32

15. Villages electrified % 1976 31.80

16. Gini index of landconcentration no. 1970-71 0.62

Sources: Compiled from data in Mi) Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76;(ii) Agricultural Census, 1970-71; (iii) India - A ReferenceAnnual. 1976, (iv) Draft Five Year Plan 197R-Al

A.7

Table 2.2

India: Distribution of Annual Rainfall

_Annual Rainfall as percentage of annual',l.No. Name of the sub-division Rainfall Jan.to Mar.to Jun.to Oct.to

(mm) Feb. May Sept. Dec.

1 Bay Islands 2,994.5 2.7 15.0 59.3 23.02 Asbam (including Manipur & Tripura) 2,516.4 2.3 25.1 65.3 7.33 Sub-Himalayan West Bengal 3,126.2 1.0 15.4 78.0 5.64 Gangetic West Bengal 1,435.3 2.7 12.4 75.6 9.35 Orissa 1,482.2 2.7 8.6 76.7 12.06 Bihar Plateau 1.372.0 3.9 6.5 82.0 7.67 Bihar Plains 1,202.9 2.9 6.1 85.0 6.08 Uttar Pradesh, East 1,007.7 3.4 3.0 88.2 5.69 Uttar Pradesh, West 964.2 5.1 3.9 87.0 4.0

10 Punjab (including Delhi & Haryana) 624.7 8.6 7.2 80.0 4.211 Jammu & Kashmir 994.6 19.2 24.0 47.5 9.312 Rajasthan, East 704.1 2.1 2.3 92.5 3.013 Rajasthan, West 311.1 3.6 4.9 89.1 2.414 Madhya Pradesh, West 1,004.9 2.2 2.0 90.7 5.115 Madhya Pradesh, East 1,401.7 3.1 3.5 87.7 5.716 Gujarat Region 976.5 0.4 1.0 95.2 3.217 Saurashtra and Kutch 482.6 0.9 2.1 93.1 3.818 Konkan 2,872.0 0.1 1.2 93.9 4.819. Madhya Maharashtra 920.7 0.8 4.1 83.6 11.520 Marathwada 773.6 1.5 4.0 83.3 11.021 Vidardha 1,099.6 2.9 3.1 87.0 7.022 Coastal Andhra Pradesh 1,008.3 2.3 8.8 56.6 32.323 Telangana 926.5 2.1 6.1 81.7 10.024 Rayalaseema 677.8 *2.2 11.3 54.4 32.025 Tamil Nadu 1,008.1 5.3 14.6 33.0 47.126 Coastal Karnataka 3,264.8 0.1 4.4 87.7 7.827 Interior Karnataka, North 675.0 0.9 12.7 65.2 19.128 Interior Karnataka, South 1,244.9 0.8 13.0 67.6 18.529 Kerala 2,996.1 1.2 13.5 66.9 18.330 Arabian Sea Island 1,572.4 2.8 13.0 62.3 21.4

Note: The rainfall figures presented in this table are based on data for theperiod 1901-50.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76. The Fertilizer Association of India,New Delhi, 1976. Reproduced from Koteswaram, P.,"Meteorological andClimatologica]. Aspects of Dryland Farming in India,"paper presented atthe I.C.A.R. Workshop on "Dryland Agricultural Research", Indian Agri-cultural Research Institute, New Delhi (September 28 - Oct. 1, 1970).

A.8

Table 2.3

India - Index Numbers of Agricultural Production

(Base: Triennium ending 1961/62 = 100)

Year Foodgrains Non-Foodgrains All Crops

1950-51 i 67.4 72.2 68.9

1951-52 68.2 75.0 70.3

1952-53 75.4 -71.1 74.1

1953-54 89.0 72.0 83.9

1954-55 65.7 82.6 84.8

1955-56 85.6 81.6 84.4

1956-57 89.5 89.6 89.5

1957-58 81.7 88.3 83.7

1958-59 97.0 95.6 96.6

1959-60 95.2 92.7 94.3

1960-61 102.1 103.8 102.7

1961-62 102.7 103.5 103.0

1962-63 99.4 105.4 101.4

1963-64 101.7 1 108.2 103.9

1964-65 112.0 120.9 115.0

1965-66 89.9 107.1 95.8

1966-67 91.9 103.7 95.9

1967-68 117.1 115.6 116.6

1968-69 115.7 113.2 114.8

1969-70 1 123.5 120.5 122.5i

1970-71 133.9 126.6 131.4

1971-72 132.0 1 128.9 130.9

1972-73 * 121.2 I 118.9 I 120.4

1973-74 131.5 136.8 133.3

1974-75 124.0 137.4 128.6

1975-76 151.1 143.8 148.6

Source: The World Bank, Report No. 1529-IN, 1977.

A.9

Table 2.4

India - Production of Foodgrains(1950-51 to 1975-76)

(million tons)

Year Cereals Pulses Total

l

1950-51 I 45.81 9.20 55.01

1951-52 43.58 8.42 52.00

1952-53 50.01 9.19 59.20

1953-54 59.20 10.62 69.82

1954-55 57.09 10.95 68.04

1955-56 55.81 11.05 66.85

1956-57 58.30 11.55 69.86

1957-58 54.75 9.56 64.31

1958-59 63.99 13.15 77.14

1959-60 64.88 11.78 76.67

1960-61 69.31 12.70 82.02

1961-62 70.95 11.76 82.71

1962-63 68.62 11.53 80.15

1963-64 70.57 10.07 80.64

1964-65 76.94 12.42 89.36

1965-66 62.40 9.94 72.35

1966-67 65.88 8.35 74.23

1967-68 82.95 12.10 95.05

1968-69 83.60 10.42 94.01

1969-70 87.81 11.69 99.50

1970-71 96.60 11.82 108.42

1971-72 94.07 11.09 105.17

1972-73 87.12 9.91 97.02

1973-74 94.66 10.01 104.66

1974-75 90.67 10.40 101.06

1975-76 107.69 13.14 121.03

1976-77 100.36 11.21 111.57

1977-78 N/A | N/A 121.0*1. ~ ~ . . . .. .. . .__ __ ___ __ __ __ __

* Final Estimates from Economic Survey, 1977-78. N/A = Not available

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, The Fertilizer Association of India,

New Delhi, 1976.

Table 2.5

India - Plan Expenditures in Agriculture

As a % of Total Plan As a % of GDP

Agriculture Irrigation Rural Agriculture Irrigation Rural& Allied & Flood Electri- Total & Allied & Flood Electri- TotalPrograms Control fication Programs Control fication

First Plan 14.8 22.1 0.4 37.3 0.58 0.87 0.02 1.47

Second Plan- 11.5 9.1 1.6 22.2 0.80 0.63 0.11 1.54

Third Plan 12.7 7.8 1.9 22.3 1.09 0.67 0.16 1.92

Annual Plans 14.6 7.1 3.6 25.3 1.04 0.51 0.26 1.81

C>-Fourth Plan 13.9 8.6 5.4 27.9 0.98 0.60 0.38 1.96

Fifth Plan 11.8 8.8 1.7 22.3 1.18 0.87 0.16 2.21(Target)

Note: 1) Expenditures on agricultural programs exclude those on buffer stocks.2) GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is estimated at market prices.

Source: The World Bank, Report No. 1529-IN, 1977.

A.l1

Table 2.6

India - Plan Targets in Agriculture, 1978-83

Unit 1977-78 1982-83Unit__ __ __ _(Actual) (Target)

1. Average annual rate of growth ofvalue added in agriculture duringthe 1978-83 period. % - 3.98

2. Proportion of gross value addedoriginating in agriculture % 42.50 38.7

3. Foodgrains output j million tons i 121.0 |140r48144.48

3a. Annual rate of growth of food-grains output. % - 3.80

4. Gross area irrigated million 48.0 63.0hectares

5. Fertilizer Consumption: NPK million tons 4.29 7.8

N 2.91 5.2

P205 " .87 1.6

K0 .51 1.02

6. High-yielding varieties | million 33.0 48.0hectares

7. Rural electrification thousand 222.87 322.0(villages electrified) % 39.0 56.0

Source: Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83. Planning Commission, New Delhi, 1978

A.12

Table 2.7

OfIndia - Size Distribution/Agricultural Holdings

(1970-71)

HoldinsOperated Area AverageSize of Holdings Holdings Size of

(Hectares) Number Percentage Hectares Percentage Holding

(000) (000) I (Hectares)

Less than 1 35682 50.6 14,545 9.0 0.4

1.0 - 2.0 13432 19.0 19,282 11.9 1.4

2.0 - 4.0 10681 15.2 29,999 18.5 2.8

4.0 - 10.0 7932 11.3 48,234 29.7 6.1

10 and above 2766 3.9 50,064 30.9 18.1

All Groups 70493 100.0 162,124A' 100.0 2.3

Gini index of sizeDistribution of Operational Holdings .617

a/ Net area sown was 135.8 million hectares in 1970-71.

Source: Agricultural Census, 1970-71.

A.13

Table 2.8

India - Cropp.ng Intensity and Irrigation by Size of Holding, 1970-71

Size of Holding Cropping / I TubewellC/(Hectares) Intensity tion_/ Irrigation

Less than ]. 1 130.2 33.8 15.4

1.0 - 2.0 I 122.3 27.9 15.7

2.0 - 4.0 119.4 25.2 17.5

4.0 - 10.0 114.2 20.4 18.4

10.0 and above 109.4 13.0 14.5

All Groups 116.4 21.4 16.6

a/ Total cropped area as % of net area sown.

b/ Net irrigated area as % of net area sown.

c/ Area irrigated by tubewells as % of total irrigated area.

Source: Calculated from the data available in All IndiaReport on Agricultural Census, 1970-71.

A.14

Table 2.9

India: Fertilizer Use by Holding Size, 1975-76

(kgs./hectare)

Size of Farm (Hectares)10 and

States Below 1 1-2 2-4 4-10 above All Households

1. Andhra Pradesh 109.0 118.5 115.9 117.4 85.6 111.7

2. Assam 69.1 51.2 56.2 50.1 15.4 49.4

3. Bihar 64.7 50.8 45.7 45.4 49.3 49.7

4. Gujarat 78.7 64.7 59.7 43.1 34.7 45.8

5. Haryana 54.6 64.2 57.0 74.5 98.2 76.6

6. Himachal Pradesh 41.7 26.0 20.9 22.3 17.3 28.4

7. Jammu & Kashmir 45.5 50.8 47.0 34.5 - 46.9

8. Karnataka 169.1 131.7 106.3 97.4 39.3 104.6

9. Kerala 93.4 88.6 73.4 171.4 - 92.0

10. Madhya Pradesh 72.1 66.9 55.4 41.3 41.9 46.5

11. Maharashtra 90.5 95.8 85.4 75.3 63.3 77.3

12. Orissa 86.9 71.5 77.6 97.3 111.5 90.8

13. Punjab 88.1 80.3 90.9 90.8 93.6 90.8

14. Rajasthan 59.2 55.6 57.9 59.0 48.1 55.5

15. Tamil Nadu 133.5 133.0 122.5 120.5 127.3 128.1

16. Uttar Pradesh 73.5 66.0 65.4 65.6 47.7 64.6

17. West Bengal 100.0 103.6 77.3 65.9 177.5* 89.5

18. All India 105.3 90.0 96.4 74.2 62.5 78.0

* Negligible of farm.

Source: National Council of Applied Economic Research, Fertilizer Demand

Study.

Table 2.10

World - Size of Holding Fertilizer Consumption and Yield 1974-75

S i~eof Fertilizer consum.p-1i. | ~~~~~~Size of |Friie osmp Yield per bectare ('00 kg)Country Holding tion N+P205+K20 per

(Hectares) hectare o arable Paddy Barley Wheat Maize Sugarcane

If I ! Australia 1 19.7 51.2 14.4 13.3 25.8 814.7Belgium &.3 |577.3 - i 46.8 38.2 58.8Germ3ny Fed. I 12.87.6* 402.0 - 42.3 44.7 55.3 1Francd 22.3 245.9 47.2 21.7 38.9 41.0 5Itanly 6.9 103.5 58.1 25.0 27.1 59.5 6Netherlands 11.6 756.5 4 43.0 41.4 70.0 7United Ringdom 55.0 257.0 _ 41.2 43.8 _ U.S.S.R. NA 58.8 40.0 11.0 10.8 27.60Canada :187.6 28.4 _ 21.3 18.0 57.3 _U.S.A. 157.G+ 76.7 51.0 23.6 20.6 54.1 826.0India 2.3 15.7 1.8 10.7 13.4 9.7 505.9Japan 1.0 374.9 61.8 28.3 26.7 27.5 670.6Korea Rep. of 1.0 350.4 53.2 23.9 21.9 16.6 _.China NA 44.6 32.3 15.4 13.8 30.0 705.4Is'rael I NA 150.1 _ 1e .8 25.4 70.0 _Egypt 1.6** 150.7 53.2 33.8 25.0 37.1 813.9FMexico 142.2 33.7 28.3 NA 33.8 11.1 653.0Chile 118.3 29.1 - NA 14.6 - _Peru 16.9 48.3. 42.8 NA NA I - 1,579.0

World NA 54.1 L 24.4 NA 15.6 28.2 502.68

* Data relate to 1970/1971/1970-71, unless otherwise stated.** Data relate to 1960/1961.+ Data relate to 1969.NA Not available.

Source: Compiled from data available in Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76. The Fertilizer Association of India,New Delhi, 1976.

Table 2.11

Levels of Agricultural Development in Indiaat the District Level for the Triennium

1.970-71 to 1972-73

Cumulative Percentage of TotalGross Value of Outputper Hectare (Rs. in Gross Aggregate Consumption lJse of Pumpsets I Gross Number ofall India prices) Cropped Output of NPK Tractors Installed; Irri-ated Districts

Area J _ In India

I I 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1. 2500 - 2799 0.70 1.83 2.37 5.39 0.83 2.22 1.06

2. 2000 - 2499 3.04 7.18 10.60 12.89 7.82 8.27 3.56

3. 1500 - 1999 14.48 27.84 38.93 46.81 40.68 34.08 17.73 >

4. 1000 - 1499 40.30 59.46 67.24 69.90 63.40 64.25 42.91

5. 500 - 999 83.96 94.20 93.79 95.88 91.56 95.75 87.94

6. 54 - 499 100.00 f 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1lCO.00 100.00

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ Com i _ Five_ _e_ I _ _ _ I _ _ _ ! _ _ _ _ _

Source: Planning Commission, Fifth Five Year Plan, 1974-79, p. 7.

Table 2.12

Growth of Agricultural Output in Indiaat the District Level Between the Trienniums

1962-63/64-65 to 1970-71/72-73

oCenulative Percentages in Total in 1970-71/1972-73Annual Compound Crowth Rate of- Gross Value of Gross Aggregate ConsumUptionl Use of Pumpsets Gross Number of

, ~~~ * ~~Cropped Irrigate DistrictsArea !Area Oin India

1. 11.00 - 11.35 0.62 0.15 0.02 0.84 I 0.08 I 0.09 0.36

2. 9.00 - 10.99 1.38 0.98 1.22 2.89 1.26 1.19 1.42

3. 7.00 - 8.99 7.93 9.97 14.13 32.47 12.47 16.28 6.38

4. 5.00 - 7.99 13.89 17.03 20.81 46.46 20.13 24.37 12.41

5. 3.00 - 4.99 29.60 36.13 38.99 67.72 34.68 45.53 29.08

6. 1.00 - 2.99 60.58 67.75 66.24 83.74 66.63 71.90 62.41

7. 0.00 - 0.99 73.09 I 80.98 81.92 90.74 80.69 83.81 75.18

8. Negative 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

* Growth rates have been computed by valuing output in 1962-63 to 1964-65 and 1970-71 to 1972-73, at averageall Tndia prices for each crop for the triennium 1970-71 to 1972-73.

Source: Planning Commission, Fifth Five Year Plan 1974-79, p. 7.

A.18

Table 3.1

India: Fertilizer Sector_- Important Indicators

NutrientsVariable Unit ! Year lTotal

N p20 5 K2 NPK

A. Consumption, Production, j Kand Imports.

i) Consumption O00tons 1977-78 2914.6 | 867.5 505.0 4287.1ii) Production " 1999.7 670.0 - 2669.7

iii) Imports 758.1 163.9 598.9 1520.9iv) Share of different nutrients % 68.0 20.0 12.0 100.0

in fertilizer consumption

B. Rate of Growth

i) Consumption 1952-53 16.9 22.8 21.0 17.9ii) Production to 17.6 17.6 - 17.6

1977-78 I

C. Plan Targ_t__ _ 137a-83 l

i) Consumption OOOtons 1982-83 5250 1600 1000 7850ii) Production 4100 1125 - 5225

iii) Imports | n 1150 475 1000 2625iv) Installed Capacity 6111 1426 - 7537

D. Installed Capacity I !i) Public sector % Nov.76 51.0 36.0 _ I 47.0

ii) Private sector 42.0| 50.0 _ I 44.0iii) Cooperative sector 7.0 14.0 _ 9.0

E. Capacity Utilized % 1977-78 65.0 66.0 _ 64.5

Source: Compiled from the data in Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77, Fertilizer News, July 1978and Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83.

A. 19

Table 3.2

India: Fertilizer Nutrient Consumption(1952-53 to 1977-78)

('000 tons)

Nitrogen (N) | Phosphorus* (P 20 ) Potash (K20) TotalYear -Qatt

Quantity Share (%) Quantity Share (Z) Quantity Share (%) Quantity

L952-53 57.8 88.0 4.6 7.0 3.3 5.0 65.7l953-54 89.3 85.0 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.1 105.1'L954-55 94.8 78.4 15.0 12.4 11.1 9.2 120.91955-56 107.5 82.2 13.0 9.9 10.3 7.9 130.81956-57 123.1 80.0 15.9 10.3 14.8 9.7 153.81957-58 149.0 81.1 21.9 11.9 12.8 7.0 183.7!958-59 172.0 76.8 29.5 13.2 22.4 10.0 223.9:1959-60 229.3 75.3 53.9 17.7 21.3 7.0 304.6:1960-61 211.7 72.0 53.1 18.1 29.0 9.9 293.8:l961-62 249.8 73.8 60.5 17.9 28.0 8.3 338.3:L962-63 333.0 73.6 82.8 18.3 36.4 8.1 452.2:'1963-64 376.8 69.3 116.5 21.4 50.6 9.3 543.9:.964-65 555.2 71.8 148.7 19.2 69.3 9.0 773.2L965-66 574.8 73.3 132.5 16.9 77.3 9.8 784.61.966-67 737.8 67.0 248.6 22.6 114.2 10.4 1100.61.967-68 1034.6 61.4 446.4 26.5 204.0 12.1 1685.01968-69 1208.6 68.6 382.1 21.7 170.0 9.7 1760.71969-70 1356.0 68.4 416.0 21.0 210.0 10.6 1982.02.970-71 1479.0 65.6 541.0 24.0 236.0 10.4 2256.01.971-72 1798.0 67.7 558.2 21.0 300.0 11.3 2656.21,972-73 1839.0 66.4 581.3 21.0 347.5 12.6 2767.82.973-74 1829.0 64.4 649.7 22.9 359.8 12.7 2838.51.974-75 1765.7 68.6 471.5 18.3 336.1 13.1 2573.31.975-76 2148.6 74.3 466.8 16.1 278.3 9.6 2893.71.976-77 2457.1 72.0 635.3 18.6 318.6 9.4 3411.03977-78 2914.6 68.0 867.5 20.0 505.a J 10.0 4287.1

* Excludes data related to bonemeal and rockphosphate.

Note: 1. From 1952-53 to 1960-61, distribution figures are treated as consumption.2. From 1961-62 onwards, consumption figures have been taken from Indian

Agriculture in Brief, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, New Delhi.3. Share (%) data are derived from the consumption figure.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77, Fertilizer Association of India,New Delhi, 1977, and Fertilizer News, July 1978.

A.20

Table 3.3

India: Growth Rates* of Fertilizer Consumption

(percent)

Period Nitrogen Phosphate Potash All NutrientsPerid P205 K20 (N+P205+ 20)

1. 1952-53 to 1962-63 19.1 33.5 27.1 21.1

2. 1962-63 to '972-73 18.6 21.5 25.3 17.7

3. 1972-73 to 1976-77 9.6 8.3 7.8 9.1

4. 1975-76 to 1976-77 14.4 36.1 14.5 17.9

5. 1976-77 to 1977-78 18.6 36.5 58.5 26.5

6. 1952-53 to 1977-78 16.9 22.8 21.0 17.9

7. 1977-78 to 1984-85** ) _ _ - j 7.2 to 11.1

* Annual compound growth rates.

** Annual compound growth rates required to achieve the targets of 7 to 9million tons of fertilizer consumption in 1985 set by the NationalCommission on Agriculture.

Source: Calculated from the data in Table 3.2

A.21

Table 3.4

India: Zcnewise Consumption of Fertilizers, 1969-78

('000 tons)

Centrail East North South West All-India

1968-69 402.9 154.1 238.1 657.1 223.8 1675.0

1969-70 553.5 199.0 233.4 744.8 259.6 1990.0

1970-71 547.8 209.4 294.2 760.9 364.7 2177.0

1971-72 667.3 262.6 383.8 881.2 426.1 2621.0

1972-73 719.0 280.0 485.0 883.0 381.0 2748.0

1973-74 684.0 273.0 471.0 905.0 477.0 2839.0

1974-75 571.0 302.0 348.0 856.0 457.0 2573.0

1975-76 675.4 321.2 430.0 1000.2 420.2 2894.0

1976-77 971.0 379.0 529.8 960.2 495.9 3411.0

1977-78 1135.7 420.8 664.1 1303.9 655.5 4287.0

% Change in 1977-

78 compared to 182.0 173.0 179.0 98.0 193.0 156.0

Note: 1) Figures relate to April-March except 1975-76 thru 1977--78, where

February-January reporting year is used.

2) From 1973-74 onward, fertilizer consumption of plantation crops

is reported separately as "Others". Hence, the row sum may

not equal to All India consumption in the last column.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics. Annual Publications. The FAI, New Delhi,

and Fertilizer News, July 1978.

A.22

Table 3.5

India: Zonewise Consumption of Fertili,:ers, 1969--7£

(Percentage Distribution)

Year Central East North South West All India

A. Fertilizer Consumption

1968-69 24.0 9.2 14.2 39.2 13.4 100.0

1969-70 27.8 10.0 11.7 37.4 13.1 100.0

1970-71 25.1 9.6 13.5 35.0 16.8 100.0

1971-72 25.5 10.1 14.6 33.6 16.2 100.0

1972-73 26.2 10.1 17.6 32.2 13.9 100.0

1973-74 24.1 9.6 16.6 i 21.9 16.8 100.0

1974-75 22.2 I 11.7 13.5 1 33.3 17.8 100.0

1975-76 i 23.3 11.1 14.9 34.6 14.5 100.0

1976-77 28.5 11.1 15.5 28.1 14.5 100.0

1977-78 26.5 9.8 15.5 30.4 15.5 100.0

B. Cropped Area

1. Ne_ cultivated area

1972-73 37.0 16.5 6.5 21.5 18.5 100.0

2. Net irrigated area

1972-73 35.4 17.1 15.8 23.1 8.6 100.0

Sources: 1) Figures in A are calculated from data in Table 3.4.

2) Figures in B are derived from data available inFertilizers Statistics, 1975-76.

A.23

Table 3.5A

India: Statewise Consumption of Fertilizers

1967-68 to 1976-77

('000 tons)

Consuption of FertilizersState/Zone 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77

Central

MadhyaPradesh 22 32 52 81 118 140 141 99 108 137

Rajasthan 25 30 42 54 71 58 74 59 78 99

Uttar Pradesh 196 339 458 410 478 519 465 4f1 485 729

East

Assam 6 9 7 9. 8 10 8 6 6 5

Bihar 43 67 110 99 108 119 97 117 135 155

Orissa 20 24 26 28 50 56 63 49 47 62

West Bengal 44 53 52 79 95 92 99 127 130 153

North

Haryana 42 47 51 70 82 94 115 75 96 138

H.P. NA 4 4 6 6 *8 7 11 9 8

J & K NA 9 4 5 5 10 14 8 11 13

Punjab 102 178 174 213 290 323 330 271 311 372

South

A.P. 133 303 313 283 297 275 281 307 413 402

Kerala 52 68 72 57 65 75 81 67 64 85

Karnataka 57 106 132 156 167 202 196 233 218 206

Tamil Nadu 155 180 222 259 346 324 341 257 300 277

West

Gujarat 91 96 108 165 182 178 212 136 150 202

Maharashtra 175 127 150 199 241 200 261 303 265 290

Source: Compiled from various issues of Fertilizer Statistics, TheFertilizer Association of India, New Delhi.

A. 24

Table 3.6

India: Statewise Share of Gross Cropped Area and Fertilizer Consumption

(1976-77 and 1977-78)

Percentage Share - Percentage Share Kg/haof State to Total of State to

State/Zone Gross cropped total fertilizer Gross CroppedArea consumption Aross Cropped

1974-75 1976-77 1977-78 Area, 1974-75)Central__________________ ___________________ 1976-77 1977-78ICentralMadhya Pradesh 12.5 4.0 3.7 6.7 7.8Rajasthan 9.6 2.9 2.6 6.2 7.1Uttar Pradesh 13.9 21.4 20.1 32.0 37.7

| EastBihar 6.6 4.6 4.0 14.4 16.0Orissa 4.3 1.8 1.5 8.7 9.0West Bengal 4.7 4.5 4:0 ! 19.8 22.4NorthHaryana 2.9 i 4.0 4.4 28.3 38.9Punjab 3.6 1 10.9 10.6 62.9 76.7South!XI

! Andhra Pradesh 8.1 11.8 12.2 30.2 39.4 i! Karnataka 6.7 I 6.0 6.3 18.8 24.4i Kerala 1.8 2.0 1.8 22.9 25.9Tamil Nadu 4.1 8.1 9.9 41.7 64.1WestGujarat 5.2 ' 5.9 6.8 23.8 34.1Maharashira 11.9 1 8.5 8.4 14.8 18.5

100.0 100.0 100.0 20.8 26.2

Source: Fertilizer News, July 1978, p.32.

A.25

Table 3.7

India: Districtwise Fertilizer Consumption, 1974-75

Total

S,No. Range of Fertil- No. of Cumulative Fertilizer % Share Cmltvizer Consumption Distr-icts Districts Z of Consumption in All Cuuatv

('000 tons) Districts ('000 tons) India Cons.

Less than 1 41 10.8 10.8 16 0.5 .5

1 - 5 168 44.2 55.0 294 12.0 12.5

5 - 10 76 20.0 75.0 550 22.4 34.9

10 - 15 51 13.4 88.4 618 25.2 60.1

15 - 20 24 6.3 94.7 415 17.0 77.1

20 - 25 7 1.8 96.5 157 6.3 83.4

25 - 30 8 2.1 98.6 226 9.2 92.6

30 - 45 5 1.4 100.0 186 7.4 100.0

Total 380 100.0 2462 100.0

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76. The FAI, New Delhi.

A.26

Table 3.8

India: Fertilizer Consumption per Hectare of Cropped Land,

19-607061--to 1976-77

Year Kgs per hectare

1960-61 1.92

1961-62 2.21

1962-63 2.96

1963-64 3.46

1964-65 4.86

1965-66 5.10

1966-67 7.00

1967-68 10.33

1968-69 11.02

1969-70 12.63

1970-71 13.67

1971-72 16.03

1972-73 16-;.46

1973-74 17.40

1974-75 15.9

1975-76 17.1

1976-77 20.8

1977-78 26.2

Source: Fertilizer Statistics: Annual Publications.and Fertilizer News,

July 1978.

A.27

Table 3.8A

World: Fertiliser Consumption per Hectare of Agricultural land1976-77 (eceib'e)

1715-76 1976-77

Contin int;Co untry _il Tot tAlN PaO4 K10 N +VP-1Ot _ P O; K1O N+p OP F

Africa 1.2 J.3 0.3 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.3 2.7Egypt 145.0 29.0 1.1 175.1 171.6 37.2 1.3 210.1M.ro.co 3.1 3.2 1.8 8.1 4.0 3.4 1.6 9.1South Alrica 3.0 3.8 t.3 7.8 3.2 3.8 1.4 8.3

North & Cent:al Amierica 18.2 9.2 8.5 35.9 13.8 9.3 9.4 37.9

Can-da 8.2 7.6 3.1 18.9 9.1 7.9 3.a 20.7Mexico 8.8 2.3 0.5 11.6 .9.4 2.4 0.5 12.3U.S.A. 22.1 11.2 11.1 41.4 22.5 11.9 12.3 46.7

South America 1.5 2.1 1.3 4.8 1.7 2.7 1.5 6-1

Chile 2.2 2.7 0.5 5.4 2.7 3.1 0.8 6.6Peru 2.7 0.4 0.1 3.2 3.3 0.6 0.4 4.2

Asia 10.0 3.7 1.7 15.3 11.0 4.4 2.0 17.3

Bangladesh 14.9 5.0 1.3 21.3 15.6 6.1 1.4 24.2China 13.3 3.7 1.2 1a.t 13.1' 4.1' 1.2 1.-4*India 11.3 2.5 1.5 12.2 13.5 3.5 1.8 13.8Israel 29.3 15.4 14.2 53.9 23.9 14.8 14.7 59.5-i,pan 105.3 103.3 86.2 296.4 132.9 133.4 124.8 391.1K.or.ua Rcp. cf 192.0 97.1 63.3 355.3 1S0.2 62.9 52.0 2S5.1Pakistan 18.1 4.1 0.1 22.3 20.5 5.0 0.1 25.7Philippines 15.5 4.6 5.8 25.9 20.5 4.6 5.9 31.0

Europe 53.3 34.6 Z5.7 123.6 54.2 36.6 35.3 126.5

Austria 32.0 19.4 30.4 81.8 38.8 23.1 37.6 99.6Ee cium 109.0 86.2 89.0 284.3 112.3 71.3 92.0 276.6C:c;;os:ovaIda 73.0 68.0 95.2 235.2 7i.7 73.1 90.7 2-10.5Cenmark 115.1 413.7 58.1 216.9 11S.8 45 .7 57.0 221.5Fin!nd 71.3 61.1 52.2 184.6 5a.4 50.4 43.9 152.7Frarce 52.9 50.2 40.7 143.8 56.t -G.1 44.5 157.2German Dern. Pe.p. of 107.7 63.5 112.2 233.5 120.0 G3.2 99.1 290.3German Fad. Re,. of 92.3 50.6 82.7 233.5 99.! 66.9 90.1 255.7Italy 41.4 28.0 15.7 85.0 33.3 24.6 11.4 74.3Neliicrlonds °16.7 3S.0 4S.5 303.3 207.4 45.2 55.6 o03.2r crvay 109.0 53.7 83.1 255.8 105.0 61.0 81.6 243.7Poland 63 7 49.0 77.6 190.3 63.3 49.1 75.2 137.7rpain 23.9 13.2 8.1 45.2 25.3 17.7 9.8 53.3S.veden 60.1 38.0 33.9 140 9 6-).4 38.6 34.5 142.4U.i:ed Kingdom 56.1 21.0 21.4 58.5 50.S 21.0 22.1 102.9Yugoslnia 25.0 13.7 11.3 50.0 26.7 13.1 11.7 51.5

U.S.S.R. 12.0 5.7 9.2 27.9

Oceania 0.4 1.7 0.4 2.4 O.S 2.2 0.5 3 2Au-.lorli:i 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.5 0.4 1.5 0.2 7.1Nenv Zealand 0.7 25.0 8.3 34.1 1.t 27.0 9.4 37.3F:ji 24.4 8.5 72.9 30.4 4.7 7.4 42.6

WVJr! 0, u(I 9.5 5.3 4.7 19.5 9.3 5.3 6.1 0 .V

Note; AgriculturaL land includes, in addition to arable land and land underpermanent crops land under permanent meadows and pastures.

* FAO Estimates,

Source: Annual Fe.rtilizer Review, FAO 1977. Reproduced from Fertilizer News,July 1978.

A.27a.

Table 3.9

India: Statewise Consumption of Plant Nutrientsper Hectare of Gross Cropped Area

(1976-77 and 1977-78)

(kilograms)

State/Zone 1976-77 1977-78N P205 K2O Total N P205 K2O Total

Central 12.6 2.7 1.1 16.4 14.2 3.5 1.5 19.2Madhya Pradesh 4.4 1.9 0.4 6.7 4.9 2.4 0.5 7.8Rajasthan 5.0 1.0 0.2 6.2 5.7 1.1 0.3 7.1Uttar Pradesh 25.1 4.5 2.4 32.0 28.4 6.1 3.2 37.7Delhi 31.5 15.3 10.3 57.1 23.7 7.9 2.3 33.9

East 9.4 1.9 1.4 12.7 10.2 2.2 1.7 14.1Arunachal Pradesh N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.5 0.01 0.01 0.52Assam 0.9 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.1 0.3 1.9Bihar 11.8 1.7 0.9 14.4 12.7 2.1 1.2 16.0Manipur 7.7 1.4 0.4 9.5 9.2 1.9 1.2 12.3Meghalaya 6.1 3.3 0.8 10.2 7.3 2.8 1.1 11.2Nagaland 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.4 1.8Orissa 6.2 1.5 1.0 8.7 6.4 1.7 0.9 9.0Tripura 1.3 0.3 0.4 2.0 1.2 0.03 0.03 1.26West Bengal 13.2 3.5 3.1 19.8 14.8 3.8 3.8 22.4Mizoram N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.4 0.8 - 1.2

North 30.9 9.0 2.3 42.2 38.7 10.9 3.2 52.8Haryana 23.9 3.2 1.2 28.3 31.0 5.9 2.0 38.9Himachal Pradesh 6.8 1.6 1.5 9.9 7.4 1.8 1.6 10.8Jammu & Kashmir 10.8 2.3 0.7 13.8 10.8 2.5 0.5 13.8Punjab 43.5 15.9 3.5 62.9 54.2 17.6 4.9 76.7

South 19.1 5.4 3.7 28.2 24.2 8.2 6.0 38.4Andhra Pradesh 22.4 6.2 1.6 30.2 26.6 10.1 2.7 39.4Karnataka 11.9 3.9 3.0 18.8 14.6 5.1 4.7 24.4Kerala 11.1 5.2 6.6 22.9 12.2 5.3 8.4 25.9Tamil Nadu 27.7 6.3 7.7 41.7 40.0 10.9 13.2 64.1Pondicherry 63.5 17.3 26.9 107.7 91.3 21.9 40.2 153.4

West 11.7 4.0 1.8 17.5 14.4 5.6 3.3 23.3Gujarat 15.9 6.3 1.6 23.8 20.6 9.9 3.6 34.1Maharashtra 9.9 3.0 2.0 14.9 11.7 3.7 3.1 18.5-Goa 14.4 7.2 3.6 25.2 16.4 9.0 5.3 30.7

All India 15.0 3.9 1.9 20.8 17.8 5.3 3.1 26.2

Note: Gross cropped area relates to the year 1974-75 for both 1976-77 and1977-78 years of fertilizer consumption.

Source: Fertilizer News, July 1978, p. 31.

A.28

Table 3.9A

India: Fertilizer Consumption on Fertilized Land, 1975-76

Ratio of Fertilizer Ratio of Fertilized Fertilizr Use

Users to Total Cul- Area to Total per Hectare of

tivating Households Cropped Area Fertilized Land

…(x)… --------- ______ -----…(kgs)…

Andhra Pradesh 61.8 41.7 111.7

A.ssam 6.5 4.9 49.4

Eihar 42.3 35.3 49.7

Cujarat 62.3 43.1 45.8

ILaryana 69.2 48.7 76.6

H[imachal Pradesh 33.8 27.6 28.4

'Jammu and Kashmir 40.5 28.5 46.9

Karnataka 49.9 33.4 104.6

Kerala 65.3 72.6 92.0

l1adhya Pradesh 15.4 10.8 46.5

11aharashtra 42.2 27.3 77.3

)rissa 21.4 20.7 90.8

'unjab 91.9 76.3 90.8

lajasthan 30.8 20.1 55.5

ramil Nadu 69.7 55.4 128.1

Utter Pradesh 44.2 32.1 64.6

West Bengal 66.0 49.8 89.5

All India 45.1 32.9 78.0

Source: NCAER Fert1lizer Demand Studv 1975-76

A.29

Table 3.10

India: Seasonwise Consumotion of Fertilizers

(000 tons)

Kharif (Monsoon) Rabi (Winter)Year Total

Quantity Share (%) Quantity Share (%)

1968-69 749 45.0 926 55.0 1675

1969-70 882 44.0 1108 56.0 I 1990

1970-71 925 42.0 1252 58.0 2177

1971-72 1092 50.0 1529 50.0 2621

1972-73 1060 39.0 1639 61.0 2699

1973-74 1202 43.0 I 1607 57.0 2809

1974-75 1145 45.0 1428 55.0 2573

1975-76 1007 35.0 1887 65.0 2894

1976-77 1188 35.0 2223 65.0 3411

1977-78 1522 35.0 2765 65.0 4287

Source: Fertilizer Statistics: Annual Publications, The FAI, New Delhi.

A. 30

Table 3.11

India: Cropwise and Statewise Fertilizer Consumption, 1975-76

('000 tons)

State3 Paddy (K) Paddy (R) Wheat Sugarcane Cotton Ground Nut Total *

Andhra Pradesh 204.83 91.62 - 24.62 17.65 10.56 420.58

Assam 7.31 Neg. 0.40 Neg. - - 11.18

Bihar 64.85 2.28 41.08 6.70 - - 125.09

Gujarat 15.14 - 25.38 - 31.46 20.30 139.08

Haryana 24.71 - 58.90 15.52 5.17 - 109.25

Himachal Pra. 1.03 - 3.03 - - - 6.80

Jammu 6 Kashmir 6.42 - 2.24 - - - 12.67

Karnataka 101.16 24.77 - 25.75 12.27 19.66 248.04

Kerala 52.84 13.56 - 3.32 - - 70.47

Madhya Pradesh 21.50 - 38.70 2.88 - - 83.41

Maharachtra 68.05 -- 25.76 43.01 41.78 - 251.58

Orissa 34.45 1.91 - - - - 51.58

Punjab 38.51 - 175.75 7.05 33.63 - 329.03

RajastILan 2.20 - 48.10 - 15.60 - 86.10

Tamil lladu 243.52 4.36 - 29.59 14.92 11.01 323.29

Uttar ]'radesh 49.32 - 238.57 88.17 - - 431.64

West Bingal 52.88 24. 47 29.41 - - - 145.20

All In,lia 988.72 163.07 687.32 246.61 190.13 61.53 2844.99

Percentage 34.7 5.7 24.2 8.7 6.7 2.2 82.2

* Include fertilizer consumption by other crops but excluding plantation crops

i.e., tea, coffee, rubber, etc.

k = Kharif R = Rabi

Source NCAER - Fertilizer Demand Study.

A.31

Table 3.12

India: N'P:K Ratio in Fertilizer Consumption

(1952-53 to 1975-76)

Year N:P:K

1952-53 12.6:1.0.71953-54 10.8:1:0.91954-55 6.3:1:0.71955-56 8.3:1:0.81956-57 7.7:1:0.91957-58 6.8:1:0.61958-59 5.8:1.0.81959-60 4.3:1:0.41960-61 4.0:1:0.51961-62 4.1:1:0.51962-63 4.0:1:0.41963-64 3.2:1:0.41964-65 3.7:1:0.51965-66 4.3:1:0.61966-67 3.0:1:0.51967-68 2.3:1:0.51968-69 3.2:1:0.41969-70 3.3:1:0.51970-71 2.7:1:0.41971-72 3.2:1:0.51972-73 3.2:1:0.61973-74 2.8:1:0.51974-75 3.7:1:0.71975-76 4.5:1:0.61976-77 3.9:1:0.51977-78 3.4:1:0.6

Note: N - Nitrogen; P - Phosphorus; K - Potash

Source: Calculated from Table3.2

A.32

Table 3.13

India: Statewise Nutrient (N:P:K) Consumption Ratio

1975-76 and 1976-77

States/Zone 1975-76 1976-77N:P:K IN:P:K

Central 5.3:1:0.4 j 4.8:1:0.4

Madhay Pradesh 2.6:1:0.1 2.3:1:0.2

i Rajasthan 5.2:1:0.1 5.0:1:0.2

Uttar Pradesh 6.4:1:0.6 5.7:1:0.6

Delhi 5.0:1.0.2 2.1:1:0.7

East 5.2:1:0.7 1 4.8:1:0.7

Assam 2.7:1:0.6 6.3:1:1.6

Bihar 8.2:1:0.6 7.1:1:0.5

Manipur I 3.2:1:0.5 5.3:1:0.3

Meghalaya - 3.2:1:0.2 1.8:1:0.3

Nagaland I 3.3:1:0.3 2.7:1:0.3

Orissa 5.0:1:0.6 4.1:1:0.7

Tripura 5.0:1:1.3 3.9:1:1.3

West Bengal 3.6:1:0.8 3.9:1:0.9

North j 5.1:1:0.2 3.5:1:0.3

Haryana I 10.4:1:0.3 7.4:1:0.4Himachal Pradesh 3.8:1:0.7 4.0:1:0.9

* Jammu and Kashmir i 7.6:1:0.3 4.6:1:0.3Panjab 4.3:1:0.2 2.8:1:0.2Chandigarh 6.4:1:0.1 NA:NA:NA

South ! 4.0:1:0.1 3.4:1:0.7

Andhara Pradesh 4.8:1:0.4 3.6:1:0.3

Karnataka 3.3:1:0.9 3.1:1:0.8

Kerala 2.1:1:1.1 , 2.1:1:1.3! Tamil Nadu 4.3:1:0.9 4.5:1:1.3

Pondicherry 3.5:1:0.8 3.8:1:1.6

West 3.8:1:0.8 2.9:1:0.5

Gujarat 3.1:1:0.2 2.5:1:0.3

Maharashtra 4.6:1:1.4 3.3:1:0.7

Goa 1.6:1:0.8 2.0:1:0.5

Others 27.6:1:0.6 7.5:1:0.2

All India 4.6:1:0.6 3.9:1:0.5

Source: Fertilizer News, July 1977.

A.33

Table 3.15

India: Fertilizer Consumption Forecasts, 1978-79

(million tons)

N P 0 K20 TotalAthors 2 5 2P25 ~~~~~NPK

1. Donde-Brown, 1972 4.0 to 2.0 to _ _5.15 2.62

2. Parikh-lSrinivasan, 1974 2.17 1.69 2.60 6.46

3. Planning Commission:a) Fifth Five Year Plan, 1976 3.4 0.87 1 0.53 4.80b) Draft: Fifth Five Year

Plan, 1974 5.2 1.8 1.00 8.00

3. National Commission on Agri-culture, 1976i) Nutrient Removal Method 3.23 1.19 0.86 5.28

ii) Recommended doses for diffe-rent crops/scaled downmethod 2.86 1.21 0.6 4.67

iii) Incremental output/inputratio method -_ - 4.84

iv) Linear trend nethod 2.61 0.95 0.59 4.15

4. Fertilizer Association of India 3.3 0.88 | 0.49 4.67

5. Actual Consumption in 1977-78 2.92 0.87 0.51 4.29

* Relates to 1978-79

Sources: See Bibliography for details.

A. 34

Table 3.16

India: Coefficients of Regressions of the Donde and Brown Study

(Expressed as Tons N Plus P Added Per Rupee Change in F and Per 1000 Hectarest -1

Change in Each Type of Crop Area)

Irri- Irri- Unirri- Unirri-

Group and Kgs. N plus IPt 1 gated gated gated gated

P Used per ha. in 1968-69 Intercept Kharif Rabi Rharif Rabi I

Area Area Area Area

Group I Paddy Low - Below 2.4 Kgs

R .785 -443 57.0** 4.9** 43.9** 1.8** 3.7**

S.E. 5.7 0.4 14.1 0.1 1.0

Group II Paddy Minimum - 2.6 to 2.8 Kgs

R .795 -675 98.0** 7.0** 9.0** 3.4** -0 .1 NS

S.E. 6.8 0.6 3.3 0.3 1.5

Group III Paddy Moderate - 9.0 to 2.0 Kgs

R .843 -1374 106.3** 12.2**1 12.2** 8.1** -2.3NS

S.E. 6.3 0.9 2.6 1.4 3.5

Group IV Paddy High - Over 20.0 Kgs

R .788 -2226 59.5** 32.2** _30.2** 21.1** 81.5**

S.E. 5.0 2.2 9.9 5.3 14.1

Group V Wheat Low - Below 10.0 Kgs

R2 .908 -632 87.3** 9.5** 9.2** 3.5** 3.0**

S.E. 47.7 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.5

Group VI Wheat High - Above 10.0 Kgs

R .906 -3421 178.2** 9.9** 26.0** 17.2** 4 .6NS

S.E. 7.4 3.7 3.6 4.4 4.7

Group VII Mixed Wheat - Belaw 6.0 Kgs

R .787 -246 128.3** 1 .3 NS 1.9* 1.1* 1.1*

S.E. 7.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.5

Group VIII Other Crops - Low - Below 9.0 Kgs.

2 NS NSR .628 -323 182.3** 16.1** 27.4 0.4 12.1*

S.E. 19.9 3.5 21.4 0.6 4.8

Group IX Other Crops - High - Above 9.0 Kgs

R .776 -3417 264.9** 13.9** 23 .8 NS 7.8** 1 7 NS

S.E. 16.3 3.4 19.4 1.0 7.7

** Significant at 99% level; * Significant at 95% level; NS - Not significant.

Source: Donde and Brown, 1972.

A.35

Table 3.17

India: Donde-Brown Projections of Demand for Fertilizers

(million tons)

Projection I Projection II Projection IIIYear (N+P205) (N+P205) N P

1. Projections 1973-74 5.2 4.4 2.4-2.9 1.1-1.5

2. Actual 1973-74 2.5 2.5 1.8 0.7

3. Actuals as percentageof projections, 1973-74 48.0 57.0 73.0-63.0 59.0-43.0

4. Projections 1978-79 4.0-5.2 2.0-2.6

Source: B. B. Donde and Dorris D. Brown, "Effective Demand for Fertilizersin India". The World Bank, Report No. SA-31, 1972.

A. 36

Table 3.18

India: Statewise Dosnd-Brown Projections of N and P205 and Actuals, 1973-74

('000 tons)

Projections Actual ActuaL as P of

N p 0 N ~~~~P 0 N P 0P2 5 2 5 N 25

L. Andhra Pradesh 515 206 169.6 82.0 33.0 40.0

2. Assam 6 5 5.5 0.5 91.0 10.0

3. Bihar 117 50 70.1 16.0 60.0 32.0

4. Gujarat 137 91 138.5 60.2 101.0 66.0

'S. Haryana 1:27 47 94.1 16.5 74.0 35.0

I;. Rimachal Pradesh 6 3 4.2 1.6 70.0 53.3

7. Jam-u & Kashmir 8 4 10.2 2.9 128.0 75.0

,3. Karnataka 143 76 108.0 48.3 76.0 64.0

K. Rerala 85 69 .34.7 22.6 41.0 33.0

11). Madhya Pradesh 71 32 87.3 44.6 123.0 140.0

IL. Maharashtra .305 196 147.1 72.5 48.0 37.0.

12. Orissa 42 23 43.6 12.0 104.0 52.0

13. Punjab 344 163 237.0 73.0 69.0 45.0

1S. Rajasthan 86 39 56.5 13.5 66.0 35.0

15. Tamil Nadu 2L6 133 202.0 71.0 94.0 54.0

15. Uttar Pradesh 565 324 328.6 86.6 58.0 27.0

17. West Bengal 59 26 54.0 18.4 92.0 71.0

Source: 1. Donde and Brown, 1972.

2. Fertilizer Statistics, 1974-75.

A.37

Table 3.18A

India: Projections of Fertilizer Demand by Planning Commission and the

Ministry of Agriculture.('000 tons)

N P 2 0 5 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _L P~~~~~~~~~~2 °5

Yea Planning Ministry of Planning Ministry ofYear | Commission Agriculture Commission Agriculture

1978-79 1 3400 870

1979-80 3700 990

1980-81 4000 1110

1981-82 i 4300 1260

1982-83 1 4760 5020 to 5150 1425 1670 to 1720

1983-84 1 5200 1600a

1984-85 1 5620 1790

1985-86 I 6050 2000

1986-87 I 6550 2240

1987-88 I 7075 6130 to 6250 2550 2450 to 2500

Source: The Working Group Report. p.7

A.38

Table 3.19

India: The Parikh-Srinivasan Optimum Requirement of Fertilizers

(million tons)

1978-79N P 0 KO0 NPK

2 5 2 __ _

1. Optimum requirement of fertilizersto meet the 5th Plan (Draft) targetsof output, and area sown, irrigated 2.17 1.69 2.6 6.46and under high-yielding varieties.

2. Optimum requirement of fertilizersto meet the 5th Plan (Draft) targets I Iof output etc., when the ratios of 4.31 1.68 1.09 1 7.08

P 0 and K O to N are fixed at the i5th Plan (rraft) values for each crop j I

separately.l '

3. Optimum requirement of fertilizersto meet the 5th Plan. (Draft) targetsof output etc., when the ratios of 4.59 1.47 0.79 6.85P O and K0 to N are fixed at the -1M7t-72 observed values for all crops.

4. Optimum requirement of fertilizerswhen 80% of the targets for irriga- I

tion and HYVs are fulfilled, and 5.62 2.24 1 1.49 9.35

the ratios of P20 and K 0 are fixed lat the 5th Plan (Draft) levels. 5.62 2.24 ! 1.49 9.35

Source: K.S. Parikh and T.N. Srinivasan, Optimum Requirement of Fertilizers

for the Fifth Plan Period. Indian Statistical Institute, 1974,

pp. 14-18.

A.39

Table 3.20

India: The NCA* Estimates of Future Demand for Fertilizers

(million tons)

Estimated Demand forMethod Year

N P K Total

i.~li 1. Nutrient Removal Method X 1978-79 3.23 , 1.19 ! 0.86 5.28

1980-81 3.41 1.27 0.99 5.671984-85 3.6 1.3 1.1 6.0

2. i) Recommended doses for Idifferent crops method 1978-79 5.21 | 2.19 1.1 8.50

ii) Scaled down estimates 1978-79 2.86 1.21 0.6 4.67

3. Incremental output/input 1978-79 - _ - 4.37aratio method 1978-79 - 4.84

4. Linear trend method 1978-79 ' 2.61 0.95 i 0.59 4.151984-85 3.6 1.4 1.0 6.0

* National Commission on Agriculture, 1976.

a = based on a foodgrains/fertilizer ratio of 17.

b = based on a foodgrains/fertilizer ratio of 13.

c = extrapolation of a linear trend for total NPK tons yielded anestimate of 4.24 m.tons.

Source: Report of the National Commission on Agriculture, 1976, Part X,Chap. 48.

Table 3.21

India: Removal of Nutrients by Foodgrain and Non-Foodgrain Crops -

Actual and Projected Production

(million tons)

1970-71 1973-74 1978-79 1980-81

Crops Total Total Total Total

N P0 KO~(N + N 0 K(N + N 0 K(N + N 0(N +N P25 K 20 P205 N 25 2 P205+ N 2 5 K20 P205+ N 25 K20 P2 0+

_____ _____ ____ _____ ____I____ K20) K20) K2 0) K2 0)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Foodgrain crops 3.33 1.24 5.02 9.59 3.12 1.18 4.88 9.18 4.24 1.71 6.33 12.28 4.17 1.64 6.69 12.50

Non-foodgrain crops 0.83 0.45 1.51 2.79 0.90 0.51 1.75 3.16 1.15 0.67 2.25 4.07 1.52 0.90 3.20 5.62

Total 4.16 1.69 6.53 12.38 4.02 1.69 6.63 12.34 5.39 3.38 8.58 16.35 5.69 2.54 9.89 18.12

Source: Report of the National Commission on Agriculture, 1976.

Table 3.22

India: Estimated Fertilizer Requirement by 1978-79*

area: million hectaresdose: kg/ha

nutrient .requirement: million quintals

- - Irri ated Unirr gated Total

Crops Sutrient_ HYVP Local Varieties HYVP Local Varieties NutrientI~ ~ ~~uretnuretntin nutrient Area requ'i-

area dose nutrient area dose rent area dose ren. area dose ndtrient rement.

1 2 f3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Foodgrains:paddy N 18.00 80 14.40 2.00 35 0.70 20.00 15 3.00 40.00 18.10

P205 18.00 35 6.30 2.00 10 0.20 20.00 0 40.00 6.50K20 18.00 25 4.50 2.00 0 .. 20.00 0 40.00 4.50

wheat N 12.00 80 9.60 .. .. .. 1.50 40 0.60 8.50 15 1.28 22.00 11.48P205 12.00 35 4.20 .. .. .. 1.50 20 0.30 8.50 0 .. 22.00 4.50K20 12.00 25 3.00 .. .. .. 1.50 10 0.15 8.50 0 .. 22.00 3.15

maize N - 1.00 70 0.70- 1.00 30 0.30 4.50 15 0.68 6.50 1.68P205 1.00 30 0.30 1.00 10 0.10 4.50 0 .. 6.50 0.40K20 1.00 20 0.20 1.00 0 .. 4.50 0 .. 6.50 0.20

jowar tl 1.50 40 0.60 1.00 40 0.40 15.50 10 1.55 18.00 2.55P205 1.50 15 0.23 1.00 15 0.15 15.50 0 * 18.00 0.38K20 1.50 10 0.15 1.00 10 0.10 15.50 0 .. 18.00 0.25

bajra N 1.00 40 0.40 4.00 40 1;60 8.50 10 0.85 13.50 2.85P205 1.00 15 0.15 4.00 15 0.60 8.50 0 * 13.50 0.75

K20 1.00 1 0.10 4.00 10 0.40 8.50 0 .. 13.50 0.50

total for N 33.50 25.70 1.00 2.60 7.36 36.66cereals P205 33.50 11.18 0.30 1.05 .. 12.53

K20 33.50 7.95 .. 0.65 .. 8.60

other N 3.00 10 0.30 6.00 0 .. 9.00 0.30cereals P2 05 3.00 0 .. 6.00 0 .. 9.00

K20 3.00 0 .. 6.00 0 .. 9.00

1 2 __3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

pulses N T 3.00 10 0.30 21.00 5. 1.05 24.00 1.35P205 3.00 20 0.60 21.00 10 2.10 24.00 2.70K20 3.00 0 .. 21.00 0 .. 24.00

total other N I 0.60 1.05 1.65cereals and P205 0.60 2.10 2.70pulses K.20

total N 25.70 1.60 2.60 8.41 38.31foodgrains P205 11.18 0.90 1.05 2.10 15.23

1 1202 7.95 .. 0.65 .. 8.60

Non-focdgrains:oilseeds N 2.00 20 0.40 13.17 10 1.32 15.17 1.72

P205 2.00 25 0.50 13.17 15 1.98 15.17 2.48K20 2.00 10 0.20 13.17 0 .. 15.17 0.20

sugarcane N 2.56 100 2.56 0.64 50 0.32 3.20 2.88P205 2.56 40 1.02 0.64 20 0.13 3.20 1.15K1(O 2.56 15 0.38 0.64 0 .. 3.20 0.38

cotton N 2.30 60 1.38 6.30 30 1.89 8.60 3.27P205 2.30 25 0.57 6.30 0 .. 8.60 0.571K20 2.30 10 0.23 6.30w 0 .. 8.60 0.23

jute | N 0.15 40 0.06 0.711 30 0.21 0.66 0.27P205 0.15 15 0.02 0.71 10 0.07 0.86 0.09k'20 0.15 10 0.01 0.711 5 0.03 0.86 0.04

tobacco N 0.10 50 0.05 0.40 20 0.08 0.50 0.13I P205 0.10 30 0.03 0.40 10 0.04 0.50 0.071K20 0.10 30 0.03 0.40 10 0.04 0.50 0.07

other crops N 4.85 60 2.91 10.55 25 2.64 15.40 5.55& plantaticrs P205 4.85 25 1.21 10.55 10 1.06 15.40 2.27crops K(20 4.85 10 0.48 10.55| 1o 1.06 15.49 1.54

total non- N 7.36 6.46 13.82foodgrain P205 3.35 3.28 6.63crops K20 1.33 1.13 2.46

total N| 25.70 8.96 2.60 14.87 52.13requirement j P205 11.18 4.25 1.05 5.38 21.66

I K20 7.95 1 1.33 0.65 | 1.13 11.06

* 1. Based on estimated area under crops and most likely doses of fertilizer application.2. Approach iPaper for Fifth Five Year Plan, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (Fertilizer Division).

** One quintal equals 100 kilograms.

A. 43

Table 3.23

India: The FAI Estimates of Demand for Fertilizers Based

on Quadratic Specification

(million tons)

Year N P205 K205 Total

1. a) Projections, 1976-77 2.466 0.679 0.400 3.545

b) Actuals, 1976-77 2.457 0.635 0.319 3.411

c) Ratio of Actual toProjection,1976-77 (%) 99.6 93.5 79.8 96.2

2. a) Projections, 1977-78 2.826 0.740 0.448 4.014

b) Actuals, 1977-78 2.914 0.868 0.505 4.287

c) Ratio of Actual toProjection (%) 103.i 117.3 112.7 106.8

3. Projections: 1978-79 3.30 0.88 0.49 4.67

1979-80 3.74 0.96 0.55 5.25

1980-81 4.71 1.04 0.60 5.85

1981-82 4.71 1.13 0.66 6.50

1982-83 5.25 1.22 0.72 7.18

1983-84 5.80 1.31 0.79 7.90

1984-85 6.39 1.41 0.85 8.65

1985-86 7.01 1.51 0.92 9.44

1986-87 7.66 1.62 0.99 10.27

1987.88 8.34 1.73 1.07 11.13

Source: Fertilizer News, July and December, 1977.

Table 3.24

indiLa: btatewise torecasts for Fertilizer Nutrients

(1978-79 to 1988-89)

('000 tonns

1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1987-88

Hadhya Pradesh H/A 125.1 143.8 161.1 180.4 198.4

FAI 131.0 154.0 178.0 205.0 234.0 264.0

RITES 131.0 264.0 445.0

Rajasthan H/A 109.1 120.0 132.0 145.2 159.8

FAI 103.0 119.0 136.0 154.0 174.0 194.0

RITES 103.0 194.0 371.0

Uttar Pradeeb M/A 1046.5 1166.5 1283.2 1411.5 1538.5

FAI 577.0 651.0 729.0 812.0 899.0 990.0

RITES 595.5 1018.0 1545

Assam H/A 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.5

FAI 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0

(Aesam & Heghalaya)RITES 47.0 107.0 225.0

Bihar M/A 191.8 220.5 242.6 262.0 282.9

FAI 162.0 183.0 206.0 230.0 255.0 281.0

RITES 162.0 281.0 434.0

Orissa H/A 56.5 63.3 69.7 75.2 81.2

FAI 62.0 71.0 80.0 91.0 102.0 113.0

RITES 62.0 113.0 181.0

West Bengal M/A 140.2 157.0 172.7 186.5 201.4

FAI 140.0 161.0 184.0 210.0 237.0 265.0

RITES 140.0 265.0 434.0

Haryana H/A 178.2 194.1 217.31 239.04 258.2

FAI 136.0 156.0 177.0 199.0 223.0 248.0

RITES 141.5 261.0 415.0

Punjab H/A 332.7 363.7 400.1 440.1 475.3

FAI 389.0 442.0 499.0 559.0 623.0 690.0

RITES 382.0 685.0 1070.0

Table 3.24 (Cont'd.) Page 2

1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1988-89

Himachal Pradesh M/A 7.5 8.2 9.1 9.9 10.9

FAI 6.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 9.0RITES 6.0 9.0 12.0

Jamimu & Kashmir M/A 12.3 13.6 14.9 16.4 18.1FAI 9.0 9.0 9.0 10.1 10.0 10.0RITES 9.0 10.0 16.0

Delhi M/A 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.1

Andhra Pradesh M/A 388.0 421.30 455.0 491.4 530.7

FAI 435.0 485.0 538.0 594.0 654.0 716.0RITES 445.3 716.0 1075.0

Karnataka M/A 170.9 184.69 203.16 223.5 245.8

FAI 202.0 229.0 257.0 288.0 320.0 354.0RITES 214.0 382.7 594.0

Kerala M/A 40.6 44.7 49.1 54.0 59.42 Ut

FAI 43.0 46.0 49.0 51.0 54.0 57.0RITES 47.0 66.6 86.0

Tamil Madu M/A 222.8 245.1 264.7 285.9 308.7

FAI 297.0 328.0 361.0 396.0 433.0 471.0

RITES 322.0 525.7 774.0

Gujarat H/A 178.0 196.7 216.4 238.0 261.8

FAI 155.0 171.0 187.0 204.0 221.0 239.0

RITES 154.0 239.0 338.0

Maharashtra M/A 246.7 266.0 292.5 321.8 353.9

FAI 236.0 263.0 292.0 323.0 355.0 .389.0RITES 236.0 389.0 585.0

Sources:

M/A - Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, New Delhi.,

FAI - Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi.

RITES - Rail India Technical and Economic Services New Delhi.

Table 4.1

India: LICENSED CAPACITY OF FERTILISERS.. UIAVSUSALWISS AND NUTUIENYTWISC SO11TO 11T1

Nitrogenous fertillsers NPJNPK mflrt.hess Phosphatic lertitlIrer Iotal

As an A0% ASN UREAh ACI CAN Niko- Is-MO 19-19-19 11.17-l1 10-26-26 Petalos SsP TSP

2% 46%. 25' L 25% N phos- 18-46-0 I 20. N N N2%5 phat ".360 & 12-32-16 1181% 16% 4 6% N P,0*

N'-01 2-20-0ht 20-20-*0 14-35-14' 14-261 1436-112 Poo. P',O p.06

i-MATE RIAL-* ___________________

I. December 31. 1050 1111.0 128.0 16.7 20.6

3. December 31, 1911 430.5 173.0 58.7 37.?

3. December 31. 1832 430.8 1191.0 68.1 21.7

1% .,.L.. 1 C. OLt5 4!0.8 109.0 66731.7

S. Decemrber 31. 1954 430.6 216.0 88.7 34.8

6L Decembef 31. 1955 430.6 270.0 88.7 43.3

7. Decemnber 31, 1956 4308a 270.0 66743.2

6. December 31, 1957 430.8 310.0 68749.6

9. December 31. 1918 430.8 834.3 68.7 63.5

10. December 31. 1959 446.6 148.0 34.0 40.0 - - - - - 04.7 -148.6 80.8

It. December 31. 1I6 401.9 148.0 24.0 48.81 - - - 16.6 511.1 -182.2 9.

12. Deceml.ee 31, 1961 400198 110.4 24.4 48.6 306.5' - - 16.6 - 49.4 -246.3 107.2

13. August 31. 11i.2 502.1 140.2 24.4 46.8 394.2' - - 16.8 ---- 649.4 -246.3 107.2

14t. July 31, 1%63 636.0 140.2 24.4 48.6 699.3' - - 65.0 - 09.7 326. 148.5

15. Sopl.mber 30, 1964 136.0 140.2 23.3 48.8 665.0' - 88.5 - -03 6 - 24.0 175.1

le. Septemrber 30. 1965 536.0 140.2 23.5 48.6 6831.0' - 88.5 ---- 1,061.2 -324.0 187.5

17. Seplern,e? 30. 194.6 662.2 121.9 276.5 61.6 685.4' 630.0 - 187.8 1,131.3 -524.8 263.6

18. September 30i. 1967 £91.5 121.9 376.5 .6. 320.0, 630.0 .108.0 411.8 - - .131.3 -632.4 316.4

(297.4'19. Sep:ember 30. 1968 978.1 121.9 627.3 85.6 (320.0, 370.0 106.0 186.5 360.0 --- 1,327.6 117.0 004.5 431.1

1585.4'

90. Seplen.Let 30. 1969 978.1 121.9 1,131.3 65.6 800.0 270.0 106.0 166.6 260.0 --- 1,327.6 37.0 1,136.4 431.2

II. Septtmber 30. 1970 1,013.1 2211.9 1,.5811.3 65.6 800.0 180.0 106.0 232.5 380.0 --- 1,337.9 27.0 1,349.343.

32. September 30, 1911 1,001.8 121.0 1.791.3 65.6 800.0 180.0 108.0 232.5 260.0 360.0 - - 1,378.8 21.0 1,514.7 532.0

23. Sep:ember 3D. 1972 933.8 50.0 1,780.4 64.8 800.0 1180.0 108.0 (5156 280.0 860.0 - - 1.249.8 27.0 1,471.3 502.6

24. November I, 1973 950.5 50.0 2,758.4 64.8 800.0 180.0 108.0 C51.5 260.0 360.0 - 45.0 1.399,8 27.0 1,933.5 8,34,2

(171.5'

25. November 1. 1974 911.8 60.0 3,1172.2 64.9 800.0 160.0 108.0 r 51.5 260.0 360.0 275.5 45.0 1.431,2 37.0 .2162.1 6643

L117 1.5'

26l. Nov*et ber 1, 11975 951.8 50.0 4,085.4 84.6 8100.0 160.0 108.0 r 11.5 410.0 360.0 375.5 45.0 1,420.6 27.0 3,625.1 737,g

L1171.5'

37. No.e.Lr,ef I, 1076' 945.0 60.0 4,819.0 64.8 8100.0 270.0 136.0 ( 711.5 f4o1.o 445.0 r50305 45.0 1,444.8 222.1 3,024.1 *927.5

111V 196.5 32.0

28. Cci~ber I. 1077 969.0 50.0 4,819.0 84.8 800.0 270.0 136.0 ( 1.5 (41, 20.0 r 603.5 45.0 1,451.4 567.0 .3 01J.O 91.sO18is0 96.5' 1 2.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. The PAI, NeW Delhi, 1977. and The Working Group Report, 1978

(for 1977 data).

A.47

Table 4.2

India: Share of Ferttlizer Capacity - Materialwise(January 1978)

('000 tons)

Operating UnderNutrient Plants Cons:ruction Approved Total

1. Ammonium Sulphate N 189.8 - - 189.8(6.3) (2.6)

2. AMronium Sulphate N 13.0 - - 13.0Nitrate (0.4) (0.2)

3. Calcium Ammonitm N 200.0 - - 200.0Nitrate (6.6) (2.8)

4. Urea N 2186.0 1915.0 2088.0 6189.0(72.2) (92.7) (100.0) (86.4)

5. Ammonium Chloride N 16.2 - - 16.2(0-5) (0.2)

6. Superphosphate P205 221.0 - - 221.0(24.2) (15.0)

7. Triple Superphosplhate P205 102.2 246.0 - 348.2(11.2) (62.1) (23.6)

8. Aimonium Phosphate N 42.5 - - 42.5Sulphate (1.4) (0.6)

P205 44.6 - - 44.6(4-9) (3.0)

9. Diammonium Phosphate N 24.5 - - 24.5(0.8) (0.3)

P20 62.6 - - 62.6(6.8) (4.2)

10. Nitrophosphate N 54.0 150.0 - 204.0(1.8) (7.3) (2.8)

P205 54.0 150.0 - 204.0(5.9) (37.9) (13.8)

11. Urea Ammonium N 117.8 - - 117.8Phosphate (3.9) (1-6)

P 0 145.8 - - 145.8

(15.9) (9.4)12. NP/NPK N 184.3 - - 184.3

(6.1) (2.6)P205 285.7 - 174.0 459.7

(31.1) (100.0) (31.2)

N 3028.0 2065.0 208.8 7165.0TOTAL (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

P205 915.0 396.0 174.0 1475.0(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

Source: Figures in brackets indicate the contribution of each Product towTardtotal N and P205 output.

Derived from data available in the Report of the Working Groun, 1978.

Table 4.3

India: Share of Fertilizer Capacity Under VariousStages of Implementation - Num:2nt-wise and Sectorwise

(as on October 10, 1977)

('000 tons)

N P 02 5

Category Public Private Corporation Total Public Private Corporation Total

1. Capacity of the 1543 1270 215 3028 337 451 127 915

Operating Units (51) (42) (7) (100) (37) (49) (14)

2. Capacity under 1564 273 228 2065 396 - - 396

Various Stages (76) (13) (11) (100) (100)

of Implementation

3. Total 3107 1543 443 5093 733 451 127 1311

(61) (30) (9) (100) (56) (34) (10) (200)

4. Less Capacity - 16 - - - 10 - 10

1;pected tobe Scrapped

5. Net Total 3107 1527 443 5077 733 441 127 1301

6. Capacity Approved 1070 674* 345 2088 - 131 43 174

in Principle, (51) (32) (17) (100) (75) (25) (100)

and Likely toCome on Streambefore 1983-84

7. Grand Total 4177 2200 788 7165 733 572 170 1475

(58) (31) (11) (100) (50) (39) (11) (100)

* One plant (in Gujarat based on Bombay High Gas), about which the Working Group Report is

not explicit, is assigned to the Private Sector.

Figures in parentheses indicate sectorwise percentage contribution to total capacity in

each category.

Source: The Working Group Report, 1978.

A. 49Table 4.4

India: Statevise Instatled Capacity of Fertilisers. lanuary 1978

('000 tons)N A25

Operating Under Operating UnderZone/States Plants Construction Approved Total Plants Construction Approved Total

Central 497 228 328 1053 58 90 50 198Hadhya Pradesh 40 - 2281 232 15 - 507 65Rajasthan 152 - - 152 12 90o - 102U.Y. 341 228a 1002 669 10 - - 10Delhi - 21 - - 21

East 731 509 152 1392 25 231 - 256Assm 197 - 152 =349 -4 4Bihar 250 129b - 379 3 156k _ 159Orissa 124 228c - 352 - - -West Bengal 160 152d - 312 18 75d _ 93

North 80 622 - 702 - - - -Punjab 80 387e - 467 baryana - 235f - 235 - - - -

South 1037 228 228 1493 504 - 81 585Andhra Pradesh 83 2288 2284 539 129 - 814 210Karnataka 160 - - 160 12 - - 12Kerala 274 - - 274 151 - - 151Tamil Nadu 520 - - 520 212 - - 212

West 683 478 1380 2541 328 75 43 446Gularat 431 273b 6905 1394 199 - 438 242Maharashtra 81 2051 6906 976 88 751 _ 163Gon 171 - 171 41 - - 41

All India 3028 2065 2088 7181 915 396 174 1485

Notes for Table 4.4:

*. IFFPP's naphtha-based Phulphur Unit (September 1979).

b. PCI's Sindri Unit's expansion based on fuel oil (January 1979).

c. PCI's coal-based Talchar Unit (July 1979).

d. dindustan Fertilizer Corporation's Haldis Unit based on fuel oil for N, and rock phosphate and sulphurfor P205 (July 1979).

e. National Fertilizer's fuel oil based Bhatinda Unit (early 1979) and Nangal Unit's expansion based onfuel oil (July 1978).

f. National Fertilizer's fuel oil based Panipat Unit (early 1979).

S. PCI's coal based Ramagundam Unit (July 1979).

h. Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Co.'s fuel oil based Chavaj Unit (April 1978).

i. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers natural gas based Trombay IV and V Units (October 1980).

j. Hindustan Copper Ltd.'s Khetri Unit.

k. PCI's Sindri Unit's rationalization.

1. coal based Korba Unit (1983-84).

2. IEL's Kanpur Unit's expansion.

3. HFC's natural gas based Namrup Unit (1982-83).

4. Nagarjuna Fertilizer's Kakinada Unit using fuel oil for N, and rock phosphate and sulphur forP20 5 (1981-82).

5/6. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizer's natural gas based plants.

7. M.P. Industrial Development Corporation's Jhabua Unit for monoammonium phosphate.

8. Kandla Unit.

Figures in parentheses indicate the expected start-up dates.

Source: Derived from the information available in the Report of the Working Group. 1978.

Table 4.5

India: Statewise Installed Capacity, 1978(Percentage Distribution)

N P 02 5

Operating Under Operating UnderPlants Construction Approved Total Plants Construction Approved Total

Central 16.4 11.2 15.8 14.7 6.3 22.7 28.7 13.3Miadhya Pradesh 0.2 - 11.0 3.2 1.6 - 28.7 4.4Rajasthan 5.1 - - 2.2 1.3 22.7 - 6.9U.P. 11.3 11.2 4.8 9.3 1.0 - 0.7Delhi - - - - 2.4 - 1.3

East 24.2 24.6 7.2 19.4 2.7 58.3 - 17.6Assan 6.5 - 7.2 4.9 0.4 - - 0.3Bihar 8.3 6.2 - 5.3 0.3 39.4 - 10.7Orissa 4.1 11.0 - 4.9 - - - -West Bengal 5.3 7.4 - 4.3 2.0 18.9 - 6.6

North 2.6 30.1 - 9.8 - - - -

Punjab 2.6 18.7 - 6.5 - - - -

Haryana - 11.4 - 3.3 - - - -

South 34.3 11.0 11.0 20.8 55.0 - 46.5 39.4Andhra Pradesh 2.7 11.0 11.0 7.5 14.0 - 46.5 14.1Karnataka 5.3 - - 2.2 1.3 - - 0.8Kerala 9.0 - - 3.8 16.5 - - 10.2Tamil Nadu 17.3 - - 7.3 23.2 - - 14.3

West 22.5 23.1 66.0 35.3 36.0 19.0 24.8 16.3Gujarat 14.2 13.2 33.0 19.4 21.7 - 24.8 16.3Maharashtra 2.7 9.9 33.0 13.3 9.6 19.0 - 11.0Goa 5.6 - - 2.4 4.7 - - 2.4

All India 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Table 4.6

India: Statewise Fertilizer Factories

STATUS

No.State;Name of factory Location n p Under Approvedl ^ In production | Implementation in principle

IN PRODUCTIONAndhra Pradesh

1. Andhra Fertilisers Tadepalli SSP2. Ar.dhra Sugars Tanuku SSP3. Coromandel Fertilisers Visakhapatnam UAP4. Hy erabad Chemicals & Fortilisers Maula Ali SSP5. Kr.shna Industrial Corporation Nidadavole SSP

Assam6. Chemical Unit of Asso:iated Industries (Assam) Chandrapur SSP7. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Namrup AS, Urea

Bihar8. Bitar State Superphosphate Factory Sindri Institute SSP9. Bolaro S:eel Bokaro AS

10. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Barauni Urea11. Fertl :zer Corpn. of India Sindri AS, ASN, Urea, TSP Urea2. Ta!a Iron & Steel Co. Jamshedpur AS

Delhi3. D.C.M. Chemical Works Delhi SSP

Goa4. Zuari Agro Chemicals Zuarl Nagar Urea, NPK, DAP, UAP

Gujarat95. Adarsh Chemicals & Ferlilisers Udhna SSP16. Anil Starch Products Bhavnagar SSP:17.. Anish Chemicals Ahmedabad SSP18. Gu;arat State Fertilizers Co. Barodd AS, Urea, DAP, ASP

:19. Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Kandla NPK!0. Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Kalol Ureati. Paushak Baroda SSP

Karnatakat2. CF.amundi Chemicals & Fertilisers Munirabad SSP13. Gammon Fer-Chems Belagula SSPt4. Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers Mangalore Urea

Kerala'25. Fertiiisers & Chemicals, Travancore Alwaye AS. APS. ACI, SSP16. Fertilisers & Chemicals, Travancore Ambalamedu Urea, NPK

Madhya Pradesh17. Dharamsi Morarji Chemical Co. Kumharl SSP

:18. Steel Authority of India Bhilal ASMaharashtra

29. Bharat Fertiliser Indusiries Bombay SSP30. D:0aramsi Morarji Chernical Co. Ambarnath SSP, TSP11. Fertili:er Corpn. of India Trombay Urea, Urea

Nltrophosphate, APSN Nitrophosphate32. Maharashtra Agro Industries Development

Corpn. Panvel SSP33. Western Chemical Industries Bombay SSP34. West India Chemicals Loni-Kalbhor SSP

Orissa35. Steel Authority of India Rourkela (Fertiliser

Plant) CAN36. Steel Aurthority of India Rourkela AS37. Orissa Fertilisers & Chemicals Rourkela Pelolos

Pun jab33. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Nangal CAN Urea

Rajasthan39. Hindus:an Copper Khetri TSP40. Hindustan Zinc Debari SSP H,PO, Urea41. Shriram Chemical Industries Kota Urea

Tamil Nadu42. Kothari (Madras) Ennore SSP ACI43. Coimbatore Pioneer Fertilisers Coimbatore SSP44. El1-Pierry (India) Ennore AS, APS45. E1D-Parry (India) Ranipet sSP46. MaCras Fertilizers Mlanall Urea, NPK47. Nayvec Ligqite Corpn. Nayveli Urea48. Premier Fertilisers Cudilalore SSP49 Sha.v W.allace & Co. Avadi SSP

.50 Soughern Petro Cr:emicaf Induitries Tuticorin Uroa, DAP, NPK

Table 4.6

Uttar Pradesh51. Fer:il:zer Corpn. of India Gorakhpur Urea52. Indian Explosives Panki. Kanpur Urea53. New Central Jute Mills Varanasi ACI54. Ralli Chemicals Magarwara SSP

West Bengal55. Fertilizer Coron. of India Durgapur Urea56. Steel Authority of India Durgapur AS57. Indian Iron & S:eel Co. Burnpur Kulti AS58. Jayshree Chemicals 6 Fertilisers Khardah SSP59. Phosphate Co. Rlshra SSP

UNDER IrMPLE&IIENTATIONAndhra Pradesh

60. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Ramagundam Urea

Cujarat

61. Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizer Co. Chavaj Urea

Haryana62. National Fertilizers Panipat Urea

Orissa63. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Talcher Urea

Pun jab64. National Fertilizers Bhatinda Urea

Uttar Pradesh65. Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Phulpur Urea

West Bengal66. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Haldia Nitrophosphate Urea

APPROVED IN PRINCIPALAndhra Pradesh

67. Nagerjuna Fertilisers Kakinada Urea, NPK

AssamYet to be

68. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Namrup decided

Gujarat69. Indian Farmners Fertiliser Cooperative Ahmedabad Urea

Karnataka70. Karnata<a State Industrial Development Corpn. Mangalore H3PO,

Madhya Pradesh71. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Korba Urea

Maharashtra'72. Fertiliser Cor;,n. of India (Plant No. 1&I) Uran Urea73. Maharaslitra Cooperative Fertilisers & Chemicals Thana ACI

Orissa74. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Paradaep NPK

*Location and product pattern of one project in North of Bombay is under.consideration.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77.

A.53

Table 4.7

India:: Capacity Utilization in Fertilizer Industry

1972-73 to 1976-77.

(Percent)

Year P2 05

1972-73 74 N.A.

1973-74 58 63

1974-75 60 63

1975-76 70 46

1976-77 73 66

Sources: 1) Report of the Working Group on the Development of the

Fertilizer Industry for the period 1978-79 to 1987-88,

January 1978, Annex 1.

2) Report of the Committee on Development of Phosphatic

Fertilizers during the Sixth Plan, January 1978, p.13.

A. 54

Table 4.8

India: Production and Capacity Utilization ofNitrogen During 1972-73 to 1976-77

(Ints. capacity and production '000 tons)

InstalledName of the Capacity 1972-73 1972-73 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77

Unit 31.3:77 Prod. %ut. Prod. %ut. Prod. Zut Prod. %ut Prod. %ut.(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

Category I (Old plants and those with built in constraints)

Sindri 90 56 73.3 59 79.0 53 76.7 66 66.7 25 38.9Udyogamandal 82 31 37.8 39 47.6 38 46.3 45 56.1 43 53.6Rourkela 120 49 40.8 46 38.3 61 50.8 77 65.8 80 70.0Neyveli 70 21 30.0 15 21.4 17 24.3 27 38.6 43 61.4Varanasi 10 5 50.0 6 60.0 5 50.0 5 50.0 5 50.0En ore 16 12 75.0 11 68.7 10 62.5 11 68.8 8 50.0Ourgapur 152 - - 6 9.5 15 9.9 37 24.3 46 30.3Cochin I 152 - - 14 9.2 40 26.3 67 44.1 80 52.6Total (I): 692 174 47.7 L96 34.5 239 36.8 315 47.9 330 49.8

Category II (Stabilized plants)

Nangal 80 53 66.3 62 77.5 40 50.0 77 97.5 80 101.2Trombay 81 63 86.4 58 80.2 60 84.0 69 97.5 95 126.0Gorakhpur 131 69 86.3 64 80.0 73 91.3 67 72.0 95 72.5Namrup 45 35 80.0 36 82.2 40 91.1 45 102.2 46 104.4Madras 176 105 64.0 124 75.6 83 50.6 145 88.4 130 78.8Baroda 216 203 94.0 163 75.5 160 74.1 158 73.1 173 80.0Vizag 83 59 73.8 54 67.5 47 58.8 48 60.0 64 80.0Kota 152 127 115.5 110 100.0 86 65.6 110 72.4 120 79.0Kanpur 200 156 28.0 115 57.5 192 96.0 178 89.0 188 94.0Goa 171 - - 64 37.4 135 98.9 113 66.1 123 72.0By products 24 16 30.0 14 70.0 18 90.0 20 83.3 24 100.0IFFCO 215 - - - - 12 16.7 115 54.4 158 74.0Total (II): 1,574 886 83.1 864 70.0 946 71.2 1,145 76.2 1,296 83.6

Category III (Now plants in the process of stabilization)

Tuti Corin 258 - - - - - - 75 43.6 149 57.8Mangalore 160 - - - - - - - - 51 31.9Namrup Exp. 152 - - - - - - - - 49 35.0Baraumi 152 - - - - - - - - 25 32.9Total (III): 722 - - - - - - 75 43.6 274 43.2

Grand Total(I+II+}II) 2,988 1,060 73.7 1,060 58.4 1,185 59.5 1,535 70.0 1,900 72.5

Total cpacity utilization was worked out by including industrial nitrogen and based on attain-able cap. 50% of available capacity during first year of operation.Installed cap. of Kota during 1970-71 to 1973-74 was 110,000 tons; capacity was added (iii)(i) Gorakhpur (51,000 tons) in 1975-76 (ii) Madras (12,000 tons) in 1976-77 and (iii) Vizag(3,000 tons) in 1976-77.12,000 tons added in 1974-75.Sources: Report of the Working Group on the Development of the Fertilizer Industry, January

19/. Annex I.

A. 55

Table 4.9

India:Capacity Utilization in Phosphatic Fertilizer Plants

Uiiit 1973-74 1974-7'5 1975-76 1976-77 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77C P C P C P C P

…-----------'00 tons------------ ----- Capacity utilization

Ti?ombey 36 32 36 32 36 34 36 45 89% 89% 94% 25%

U4tyogmandal 37 17 37 18 37 19 37 19 46% 49% 51% 51%

Kidras 85 52 85 48 85 60 85 56 61% 56% 71% 66%

Eiimore 10 8 10 9 10 9 10 8 80% 90% 90% 80%

D.irode 50 27 50 27 50 28 50 33 54% 54% 56% 66%

VLzag 73 61 73 48 73 50 104 72 84% 66% 69% 70%

Goa - - - 42 8 42 21 - - 15% 501

Kandla - - - 9 127 37 127 94 - - 29% 74%

Cochin It - - - - - 3

SSP Units 198 125 198 135 221 74 221 128 64Z 67% 33Z 58%

TSP Units 11 1 11 1 11 1 11 - 91 9% 91 -

Total: 500 323 500 327 692 320 723 480

Overall capacity utilization

a) Straight P205units 60% 66% 32% 55%

t) Complexunits 68% 652 53% 72%

c) Over all 65% 65% 46% 66%

Note: (1) 'C' stands for capacity(2) 'P' stands for production

Source: Report of the Committee on Development of Phosphatic Fertilizersduring the Sixth Plan, January 1978, Annex II.

k.56

Table 4.10

India: Factors Causing Loss in Production of Nitrogen,

1972-73 to 1976-77('000 tons)

Loss of Production DuringFactors 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77

Mechanical breakdowns 19 92 184 243 296

Power problems 50 130 71 60 32

Raw material limitations 12 41 9 - 16

Labour problems 24 30 22 15 -

Shortage of utilities 19 25 22 - 22

Process and operationalproblems 21 22 18 22 4

Total: 145 340 326 340 370

Source: Report of the Working Group. p. 9.

A.57

Table 4.12

India: Chronology of fertiliser manufacture

Approx. Totdl no.year Fertiliser material Factory which of units

of first manufactured first manufactured eper3tingmanufacture (as on

I 1.4.1976)

(i) 1906 I. Single superphosphate E.l.D.-Parry, Ranipet 30(Tamil Nadu)

(ii) :2. Ammonium sulphate 11

1933 (a) As a by-product (a) TISCO, Jamshedpu7 t;of steel industry (Bihar)

1941 (b) Using sulphuric (b) Mysore Chemicals 1oacid Fertilizers, Selagula

(Karnataka)

1947 (c) Using gypsum as a (c) FACT. Alwaye, 4raw material (Kerala)

(iii) 1959 3. Ammoniur sulphate FCI, Sindri (Bihar) 1nitrate

4. Urea FCI. Sindri (Bihar) 16

5. Ammonium chloride FACT, Alwaye (Kerala) 2--

(iv) 1960 1;. Ammonium phosphate FACT. Alwaye (Kerala) 3sulphate

(v) 1961 7. Calcium ammonium FCI, Nangal (Punjab) 2nitrate

(vi) 1965 83. Nitrophosphate FCI. Trombay 1(Maharashtra)

(vii) 1967 9. Diammonium phosphate GSFC, Baroda (Gujarat) 1

(viii) 1968 10. Triple superphosphate DMCC. Ambernath 1(Maharashtra)

-l. Urea ammonium CFL, Vizag. (Andhra 4phosphate Pradesh)

12. NPK complex fertilisers FCI, Trombay 5(Maharashtra)

13. APSN FCI, Trombay 1(Maharashtra)

* Closed in 1965FACT producas technical grade.

Source: Production and Consumption of Fertilizers:Annual Review, 1975-76. The F.A.I., New Delhi, 1976.

A.58

Table 4.13

India: Fertilizer Nutrient Production 1/

(1951-52 to 1977-78)

('000 tons)

Nitrogenous Phosphatic Total*Year (N) (2 5 (N + 205)

1951-52 28.9 9.8 38.71952-53 53.1 7.4 60.51953-54 52.9 13.8 66.71954-55 68.5 14.3 82.81955-56 76.9 12.4 89.31956-57 78.8 17.6 96.41957-58 81.1 25.8 106.91958-59 80.8 31.0 111.81959-60 83.7 51.4 135.11960-61 112.0 53.7 165.71961-62 154.3 65.4 219.71962-63 194.2 88.3 282.51963-64 219.1 107.8 326.91964-65 243.2 131.0 374.31965-66 237.9 118.8 354.71966-67 309.0 145.7 454.71967-68 402.6 207.1 609.81968-69 563.0 213.2 776.21969-70 730.6 223.7 954.31970-71 832.5 228.1 1060.61971-72 949.2 290.3 1239.61972-73 1054.5 330.3 1384.81973-74 1049.9 324.5 1374.11974-75 1186.6 331.2 1517.21975-76 1508.0- 319.7 1827.71976-77 I 1862.0 478.0 2340.01a77-7R I 1Q9Q.7 670.0 2669.7

1/ Excludes N production for non-agricultural purposes.

* Potassic fertilizer nutrients (K20) are not produced in India.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. The Fertilizer Association

of India, New Delhi, 19761 and Fertilizer News_ Ju.uly 1978.

A.59

Table 4.14

India: Rate of Growth of Production of Nitrogenous and PhosphaticFertilizers, 1952-53 to 1977-78.

__________________ ( Percent)

Period N P2 05 Total

I 1952-53 to 12.6 27.4 15.41961-62

II 1961-62 to 19.9 16.1 18.81971-72

III 1971-72 to 13.2 14.9 13.61977-78

IV 1952-53 to 17.6 17.6 17.61977-78

Source: Calculated from the data in Table 4.13.

Table 4.15

INDIA: Rate of Growth of Production of Nitrogenous and Phosphatic Fertilizers. 1961-62 to 1977-78

N P 2 05 N + P2 05Quantity x Change Quantity % Change Quantity % Change(000 tons) over the (000 tons) over the (000 tons) over the

Year previous previous previousyear year year

1961-62 154 - 65 - 220 -

1962-63 194 26.0 88 35.4 283 28.6

1963-64 219 12.9 108 22.7 327 15.7

1964-65 243 10.9 131 21.3 374 14.5

1965-66 238 - 2.1 119 - 9.2 357 - 4.7

1966-67 309 29.8 146 22.7 455 26.5 >

1967-68 403 30.4 207 41.8 610 34.1 o

1968-69 563 39.7 213 2.9 776 27.3

1969-70 731 29.8 224 5.2 954 22.9

1970-71 833 14.0 228 1.8 1061 11.1

1971-72 949 13.9 290 27.2 1240 16.9

1972-73 1054 11.1 330 13.8 1385 11.7

1973-74 1050 - .4 325 - 1.5 1374 - 0.8

1974-75 1186 12.9 331 1.8 1517 10.4

1975-76 1508 27.2 320 - 3.3 1828 20.5

1976-77 1862 23.5 478 49.4 2340 28.0

1977-78 2000 7.4 670 40.1 2670 14.1

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76, and Fertilizer News, July 1978.

Tabla 4.16

Tndtaz Statewise Production of NitrogenoadPhoOhatic!ettlizC!±

(000 tona)

State/Zone N 2 5

1970-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 75-76 1976-77 1970-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 75-76 76-77

Central 300 321 364 298 360 363 412 27 . 40 38 33 38 21 43

Kadhya Pradesh 6 5 6 5 6 6. 7 9 14 11 10 14 5 13

Rajasthan 114 107 128 110 86 108 119 8 7 7 4 7 3 10

U.P. 180 209 230 183 268 249 286 2 6 5 5 6 4 6

Delhi - - - - - - - 8 1 15 14 12 9 14

East 135 i43 i46 i55 i/7 215 278 IG 12 17 "7 18 9 1

Assam 27 30 34 36 40 44 93 2 - - - - 1 2

Bihar 77 60 59 61 56 51 52 1 2 2 1 2 - I

Orissa 25 48 51 48 64 80 83 - - - 2 2 - a6

West Bengal 6 5 4 10 18 40 50 7 10 15 14 14 8 9

North 55 57 54 62 40 77 80 - - - - -

Punjab 55 57 54 62 40 77 80 - - - - - - -

South 141 174 225 253 232 415 564 111 135 170 175 165 163 190

Andhra Pradeah 70 65 59 54 47 48 58 67 74 71 72 60 57 81

Karnataka - - - - - 1 50 -- 1 1 a - - -

Kerala 30 36 29 50 75 110 121 16 15 14 22 22 22 26

Tamil Nadu 41 73 138 149 111 256 325 28 46 84 81 82 84 83

West 201 254 263 282 376 438 528 80 103 106 100 110 127 233

Gujarat 147 185 203 161 183 257 316 34 37 42 38 51 68 136

Maharashtra 54 69 60 56 58 69 90 46 66 64 62 50 51 76

Goa - - - 65 135 112 121 - - - - - 8 21

All India 833 949 1055 1050 1186 1508 1862 228 290 330 324 331 320 478

a - less than 500 tons

Source: Fertilizer Statistics 1970-71 to 1976-77.

Table 4.17

India - Zonewise Production of Fertilizer Nutrients

( Percentate )

Central East North South West TotalYear N P N+P N P N+P N P N+P N P N+P N P N+P (N/P/N4P)

1977-78 22.8 7.5 17.4 12.4 1.9 11.1 2.9 - 2.1 31.8 43.3 34.6 30.4 47.3 34.6 10o.0

1976-77 22.2 9.1 19.5 14.9 2.5 12.4 4.3 - 3.4 30.3 39.6 32.2 28.3 48.8 32.5 100.0

1975-76 24.0 6.6 21.0 14.2 2.8 12.2 5.1 - 4.2 27.5 51.1 31.6 29.2 39.5 31.0 100.0

1974-75 30.3 11.5 26.2 15.0 5.4 12.9 3.4 - 2.6 .19.6 49.8 26.3 31.7 33.3 32.0 100.0

1973-74 28.4 10.2 24.1 14.7 5.2 12.5 5.9 - 4.5 24.1 53.8 31.1 26.9 30.8 27.8 100.0

1972-73 34.5 11.8 29.5 14.0 5.2 11.7 5.1 - 3.8 21.3 51.5 28.5 25.1 31.5 26.5 100.0

1971-72 33.9 13.8 29.2 15.0 4.1 12.4 6.0 - 4.6 18.4 46.2 24.9 26.7 35.9 28.9 100.0

1970-71 35.8 11.8 30.7 16.2 4.4 13.7 6.6 - 5.2 17.4 48.7 24.1 24.0 35.1 25.0 100.0

1969-70 25.6 12.4 22.4 19.7 5.3 16.2 1113 - 8.6 21.3 52.9 28.9 22.1 29.4. 23.8 100.0

1968-69 10.9 12.6 11.4 27.0 5.6 20.9 14.4 - 10.3 24.8 45.8 30.8 22.9 36.0 26.6 100.0

1967-68 2.2 16.4 7.2 35.0 12.8 27.2 21.4 - 13.9 18.3 37.9 25.2 23.1 32.8 26.5 100.0

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1967-68 to 1977-78

A.63

Table 4.18

India: Product Composition of Nttrogenous Fertiliters

Production (000 tonnes)

Fertilizer Grade 1958-591 1967-68 1971-72 | 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77

Straight Nitrogenous

Amanium sulphate (20.6XN) 392.1 417 582 554 574 583 611 586(100.0) (23.9) (12.7) (10.1) (11.2) (10.1) (8.5) (6.5)

Ammonium sulphate nitrate (26ZN) - 69 30 58 48 27 21 2(5.0) (0.8) (1.4) (1.1) (0.6) (0.4) (0.02)

Urea (46SN) - 208 1237 1413 1408 1734 2197 2863- (26.7) (60.1) (61.1) (61.8) (67.4) (66.9) (71.0)

Calcium aeoniun nLtrato (252N) - 532 412 412 431 406 618 638(32.8) (10.9) (9.8) (10.3) (8.6) (10.0) (8.7)

Amoniun Chloride (252N) - 15 18 14 14 10 15 17(1.1) (0.5) (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (.2)

UP/NPK Fertilizers

Amsonium phosphate (16-20-0) - - 103 94 104 120 113 102sulphate (20-20-0) 92 - 3 20 24 30 33

(18-9-0) I- _ _ _ _ 7 1O

(4.2) (1.7) (1.5) (1.5) (2.1) (1.7) (I.4t

Aomoniun *ulphete - - - - -- - 20 -Phosphate (19.5-19.5-0) (0.3) -

Nitrophosphate (15-15-15) - 96 204* 240 2113 211 181 182

(20-20-0) - - - - - 35 59

(4.6) (4.2) (3.4) (3.0) (2.7) (2.3) (2.2)

Dimouium phosphate (18-46-0) - 28 50 69 60 67 53 87

(1.7) (1.0) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (0.6) ( .8)

Urea amonium phosphate (28-28-0) - 195 175 172 137 181 244

(20-20-0) - - 36 17 - - - 35

(6.6) (4.9) (4.6) (3.2) (3.4) (4.0)

U3K complex fertilizers (17-17-17) - - 55 242 209 226 282 266

(18-27-3) - - 5 - - - - -

(14-28-14) - - 13- 44 59 34 - 5(14-34-14) - - 3 28 37 28 12 45

(10-26-26) - - - - - 14 2 55.3

(12-32-16) - - 13 72 -

(19-19-19) - - 15 61.4(24-24-0) - - 94 5.0(22-22-11) - - 7 9 3 248.0

(1.5) (4.9) (4.7) (4.1) (5.6) (5.2)

Total N 80.8 402.6 949 1055 1050 1186 1508 1857

(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

* Of different grades.o Figure in bracket represents cont-ribution of a particular fertilizer to the total nutrient taken as 100 (vertical).

Source: Fertilizer Statistics

A. 64

Table 4.19

India: Product Cor.osition of Phosnhatic Fertilizers

Strigt Poshais198-5 16768 97-7 Production ('000 tons)

.Strs195'3-59 1967-68 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77

Superphosphate (16% w.s. P205) | 194 875 773 789 773 819 461 786

(100) (71.8) (42.7) (38.1) (38.2) (39.6) (23.1) (26.2)

High grade super-/ 32 3 - 10 12 2 2phosphate (3.4) ((0.2) (0.6) (0.4) (0.1) (.1)

Triple super (45% w.s. P205) 1 8 5 3 3 2 2phosphate ( .2) (0.6) (0.5) (0.3) (0.7) (0.3) (.2)

NP/NPK Fertilizers

Ammonium phosphate (16-20-0) 92 103 94 104 120 113 102sulphate (20-20-0) 3 20 24 30 33

(18-9-0) - - - - - 7 10(9.2) (7.2) (5.8) (7.7) (8.7) (8.6) (5.9)

Ammonium sulphate (19.5-19.5-0). - - - - 20 1

(1.2) (0.04)

Nitrophosphate (15-15-15) 96 2C4 2/ 240 213 211 181 182

(20-20-0) - - - - 35 59

(8.7) (13.7) (10.9) (9.8) (9.6) (10.7) (8.2)

Diammonium phosphate (18-46-0) 28 50 69 60 67 53 87.1

(6.7) (7.8) (9.7) (8.6) (9.3) (7.6) (8.4)

Urea 2 =onium (28-28-0) _ 195 175 172 137 181 244phosphate _ 36 17 - - - 33

_ (21.3) (15.8) (14.8) (11.6) (15.9) (15.7)

NPK Complex (17-17-17) 55 242 209 226 282 266fertilisers (18-27-3) 5 - - - _ _

(14-28-14) 13 44 59 34 - 5

(14-35-14) 3 28 37 28 12 45(10-26-26) - - - 14 2 55

(12-32-16) - - 13 72 - 248

(19-19-19, - - - - 15 61

(24-24-0) - - -- - 9^ 5

(22-22-11) 7 - _ 9 3 -

(5.9) (19.1) (20.0) (20.1) (32.5) (35.3)

Total P2 05 31 207.1 290 330 325 331 320 478

(100.0) .(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (M100.) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

1/ "Pelofos" (18% availahle P2 05 containing 5% w.s. P 05

2/ of diffcrent grades

Source: Fertilizer Statistics

A. 65

Table 4.20

India: TnIrtilad Capcritv 0: Nitrogenous Fcrtilizcrs Accordirg to Sources of r edosrtc-k

(000 tolns)

Year Naphtha Natural £lectric Cole/ Lignite Ammonia Coal Fuel Total

Gas Power CC, (Import) Oil

1955-56 - - 1 85 - - 10 - 96.0

(1.0) (88.6) (10.4) (100.0)

1960-61 - - 91.0 147.0 - - 10.0 248.0

(36.7) (59.3) (4.0) (100.0)

1965-66 112 - 91.0 312 70 - - - 585.0

(19.1) (15.6) (53.3) (12.0) - - - (100.0)

November 1972 1039 91 84 180 70 - - - 1464.0

(70.9) (6.3) (5.7) (12.3) (4.8) - -_ - (100.0)

Octcber 1973 1466.2 45.0 80.0 200.0 70.0 - - 85 1946.2

(75.3) (2.3) (4.1) (10.3) (3.6) - - (4.4) (100.0)

Novrember 1974 1551.0 260.0 80.0 201.1 70.0 - - - 2162.1

(71.8) (12.0) (3.7) (9.3) (3.2) - _ _ (100.0)

December 1975 1925.0 361.0 80.0 189.1 70.0 - - - 2625.1

(73.3) (13.8) (3.0) (7.2) (2.7) - - __ (100.0)

November 1976 2140.0 513.0 80.0 189.0 70.0 32.0 - - 3024.1

(70.7) (17.0) (2.6) (6.3) (2.3) (1.1) - - (100.0)

Octnber 1977

a) inder?rodLction 2140.0 513.0 *80.0 193.8 70.0 72.0 - - 3068.8

(69.8) (16.7) (2.6) (6.3) (2.3) (2.3) * - - (100.0)

b) UnderImplementation 358.0 - - - - 80.0 456.0 1176.0 2070.0

(17.3) (3.9) (22.0) (56.8) (100.0)

c) Approved in 51.0 1187.0 - - - 228.0 725.0 2191.0

Principle (2.3) (54.2) _ _ _ (10.4) (33.1) (100.0)

Total for 2549.0 2045.0 80.0 193.8 70.0 152.0 684.0 1901.0 7675.0

1977 (33.0) (27.0) (1.0) (3.0). (1.0) (2.0) (8.0) (25.0) (100.0)

Note: 1) Figures up to 1976 revrasent the capacities under production.

2) Figures in parentheses are percentage contribution of each feedstock to total capacity.

Sources: 1) S idrnr on Fert4'A.rs tn 4iTd,ao tn t'e 5eventies, 197 2: Procncdinns. The FAI, New Dclhi, 1973

p.I11-2/5 (For 155-'`, 1`60-61, lSF5-66 and 1372.)

2) Fertilizer St itztics 197:-73 ti_ u :976-77 (For 1973 through 1977 period).

A. 66

Table 4.21

INDIA: CAPACITY OF PHOSPHATE (P20,) AND THE RAW MATERIALS(As on 1.10.1977)

('000 tonnes of P2O0 nutrient/annum)

Raw materials

Type of fertilisers . . Total

0

0. 0.o

I. Factories in production. SSP 208.0 - 12.0 122 - - 232.2

ii. TSP 12.2 156.00 90.0 - - 258.2Ill. Pelofos 7.6 - - - - - 7.6lv. NP/NPK fertilisers 365.5 - - - 54.0 281.00 700.5

I. Total 593.3 156.0 102.0 12.2 54.0 281.0 1,198.5(49.5) (13.0) (8.5) (1.0) (4.5) (23.5) (100.6)

II. Projects under implementationI. TSP _- - -li. NPINPK fertiiisers - - - - 150.0 - 150.0lii. Others - - 26.0@ - - - 26.0

II. Total - _ 26.0 - 150.0 - 176.0C - ) (-) (14.8) (-) (85.2) (-) (100.0)

Ill. Projects approved In principleI. NP/NPK fertilisers 382.0 - - - - - 382.0

II. Others 150.0@ - - - - - 150.0Ill. Total 532.0 - - - - - 532.0

(100.0) C-) C-) C-) C-) (-) (100.0)

Total (1+11+111)SSP 208.0 - 12.0 12.2 - - 232.2TSP 12.0 156.0 90.0 - - - 258.2Pelofos 7.6 - - - - - 7.6NP/NPK fertilisers 747.5 - - - 204.0 281.0 1,232.5Others 150.0 - 26.0 _ _ - 176.0

GRAND TOTAL (1+11+li1) 1,125.3 156.0 128.0 12.2 204.0 281.0 1,906.5(59.0) (8.3) (6.7) (0.6) (10.7) (14.7) (100.0)

* One of the factories uses imported monoammonium phosphate occasionally. During theSixth Plan it will have its own phosphoric acid plant.* It would use both pyrites and sulphur.@ ,The phosphoric acidis planned to be marketed.

Note: 1. Rockphosphate is the basic raw materialiwhich is processed with H,SO,, HNO, and H,P04to release P O, in the desired concentration. Factories based on imported HJPO, do notrequire either rock or sulphur as such to manufacture phosphatic fertilisers.2. Figures in brackets include the percentage contribution through a lertiliser feedstock to

the total (horizontal).

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. the FAI, "ew Delhi, 1977.

A. 67

Table 4.22

India: Production of Raw Materials Used in Fcrtilizer Indus.rv

(000 tons;)

Year Rock Sulphur Sulphuric Crude Natural FuelPhosphate in all Acid Oil Gas* Naphtha Oil

Forms

1965-66 - - 648.5 3022

1966-67 - - 737.9 4647

1967-68 - 90.0 912.9 5667

1968-69 - 108.0 1023.2 5853 1317 937

1969-70 96.9 119.0 1213.7 6723 1384 1214

1970-71 195.1 144.0 1200.1 6809 1424 1253 4239

1971-72 232.9 138.0 1264.1 7185 1509 1181 4098

1972-73 193.9 150.0 1339.4 7373 1565 3688

1973-74 133.3 130.0 1412.3 7198 1368 3931

1974-75 428.9 154.0 1457.7 7490 1648 4243

1975-76 386.6 165.0 1445.2 8283 1915 4980

1976-77 562.6 153.0 1778.1 8659 2082 4782

* measured in m'llion cubic mc ers

Note: 1. Figures for sulphur, crude oil, natural gas, naplitha and ijel oil

relate to the calendar year corresponding to the year first mentioned.

2. Figures for Sulphuric Acid are onthe July-June basis up to 1966-67.

From 1967-68 onward, the April-I'arch Year is used.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1970-71 to 1976-77.

A-68

Table 4.23

INDIA: PRODUCTION OF ROCKPHOSPHATE AND SULPHUR

1969-70 to 1976-77 (April.March)('000 tonnes)

Rockphosphate I Sulphur-in-all-forms'(tonnes of S/Equivalent)

Year Re- SmelterPPCLU Rajas- M.P.3 Total covered Pyrites gases, lotal

than' 1 sulphur |gypsu.

1969-70 - 96.9 - 96.9 4.0 5.0 110.0 119.0

1970-71 - 195.1 - 195.1 4.0 20.0 120.0 144.0

1971-72 0.7 232.2 - 232.9 2.0 10.0 126.0 138.0

1972-73 7.3 191.6 - 198.9 2.0 13.0 135.0 150.0

1973-74 9.9 123.4 - 133.3 2.0 128.0 130.0

1974-75 16.9 402.3 9.7 428.9 3.0 25.0 126.0 154.0

1975-76 7.9 350.7 28.0 386.6 3.0 32.0 130.0 165.0

1476-7? 21.4 500.2 41.0 562.6 3.0 35.0 115.0 153.0

a. Production of Rockphosphate at Mussoorie (U.P.) commenced from April 1971.

b. Production of Rockphosphate at Udaipur (Rajasthan) commenced from April 1969.

c. Production of Rockphosphate at Jhabua (M.P.) commenced from May 1974.

d. Data relate to the calendar year corresponding to the year first mentioned.

Reproduced from Fertilizer Statistics, 1970-71 to 1976-77.

A. 69

Table 4.24

INDIA: Rock Phosphate Resources

| ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~TonnageSi. State Area Nature of Associated rock T g% P2O0

No. occurrence Provediprobable possible

1 ~. Rajasthan Udaipur District

a) Maton Phosphatic stromatolites. Dolomites & cherts 2.260,000 3.120Q000 21-29 per centb) Jhamarkotra -do- -do- II. 13,000 - +30 per cent

646, 65,000 1S.00,000 20-30 per centc) Kanpur -do- Dolomites 3.930,000 - 11.6 per centd) Kharbaria-Ka-

Gurha -do- Dolomites - S.00.000 22-25 per cente) Dakan Kotra -do- Dolomites - 1.400.C00 IS per centt) Neemuch mata -do- Dolomites and cherts - 3.30.000 S-10 per centg) Bsdagaon -do- -do- 3.47.000 2.59,000 4-24 per centh) Sisarma -do- -do- -- 8.40.000 8-10 per centjaisalmer Districta) Birmani Grains. pallets Sandstone, shale, limestone 43.40,000 - 12.91 per cent

and thin bandsFatehgarh Grains, thin bands In clayey matter and ferruginous - - S- 8 per cent

and blotches sandstone2. Madhya Pradesh Jhabua District Stromatolitic Dolomitic marble and chert 472.0000 - +29 per cent

Khatamba and 221,2000 - +12 per centKelkua

3. Uttar Pradesh Dehradun and Tehri Bedded deposits Black-shale chert association, 90.00,000 1c,00,000 13-30 |Garhwal district of lower Tal formationBhusti, Maldeota,Kina, MathlangaonMasrana etc.

4. Tamil Nadu Tiruchirapalli Dist. Nodules Utatur beds _ 2,000.000 21.14-26.50S. Laccadive Islands Union Territory _ Guano deposits - 92,000 13.11

17,000 24-86 :6. Bihar Palamau district Grains and pellets Calcareaous shale underlying N.A. - S.E6-7.8

Bhawnathpur Kairajat limestone

SOUI CE: (I) Gcological Survey of India. Western Region. Jaipur.(iI) Department of Mines & Geology, Giovt. of Rajasthan. Udalpur.

Table 4.25

India: Consumption of Raw Materials in Fertilizer Industry('000 tons)

Fuel PhosphoricYear Naphtha Oil Acid

1972-73 968.1 235.2

1973-74 1071.8 284.3 164.8

1974-75 1242.0 417.0 173.1

1975-76 1468.0 411.0 210.2

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. The FAI, New Delhi, 1977.

A.71

Table 4.26

India: Fertilizer Imports(1952-53 to 1976-77)

(000 tons)

Nitroenou Phophati Potssic Total Total ValueYear Nitroge(N) Phosphatic o 0tassi Quantity of Imports

(P2 5) (K20) (N+P205+K20) (m. rupees)

1952-53 44.0 _ 3.0 47.0 45.61953-54 19.0 _ 7.0 26.0 25.21954-55 20.0 - 11.0 31.0 30.21955-56 53.0 - 10.0 63.0 73.31956-57 57.0 - 15.0 72.0 77.71957-58 110.0 - 13.0 123.0 158.81958-59 97.0 - 22.0 119.0 113.11959-60 142.0 4.0 33.0 179.0 162.91960-61 399.0 - 20.0 419.0 121.81961-62 307.0 - 75.0 382.0 141.11962-63 244.0 10.0 41.0 295.0 236.91963-64 228.0 13.0 40.0 281.0 187.11964-65 232.0 12.0 57.0 301.0 220.81965-66 326.0 14.0 73.0 413.0 411.91966-67 632.0 148.0 118.0 898.0 1288.21967-68 867.0 349.0 270.0 1486.0 1933.01968-69 844.0 138.0 213.0 1195.0 1629.21969-70 667.0 94.0 120.0 881.0 1167.71970-71 477.0 32.0 120.0 629.0 767.81971-72 481.0 248.0 268.0 997.0 899.71972-73 665.0 204.0 325.0 1194.0 1212.61973-74 659.0 213.0 370.0 1242.0 1767.51974-75 884.0 286.0 437.0 1607.0 5991.31975-76 996.0 361.0 278.0 1635.0 7227.71976-77 750.1 22-R 277.8 1050.; 2202.21977-78 758.1 163.9 598.9 1520.9 N.A.

1982-83* 1150.0 475.0 1000.0 2625.0 2625.0

* Targets

Source: i) Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. The Fertilizer Association of India,

New Delhi, 1977.

ii) Fertilizer News, July 1978

iii) Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83.

A. 72

Table 4.27

India: Import of Nitrogenous Fertilizers

(O000 tonnes)

| ~~~April-MarchMaterial and origin of import April-March

1975-76 | 1976-77

Ammonium Sulphate 21°o NU.S.S.R. 45.3Ita y 57.5

Total 102.8(150.5)

Ammonium Sulphate Nitrate 26%o NWest Germany 10.3

(18.5)Urea 456 NSaudi Arabia 20.0 49.0Bulgaria 98.5 60.0Czechos!ovakla 9.5East Germany _ 34.0Holland 54.0 288.7Italy 75.1 88.2Japan 421.5 92.2Kuwait. 119.6 74.2Norway 10.0 40.1Poland 237.8 200.9Rumania 44.7 195.0Sweden 5.0U.S.A. 119.6 182.3U.S.S.R. 244.2 138.7South Korea _ 33.0Qatar 7.4 120.6Denmark 2.3

Total 1,469.1 1,596.9(3,544.6) (1,772.7)

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate 260% NSweden 20.0Holland 47t1Rumania 94.6 4.5Poland 30.5Belgium 2.0

Total 194.2 4.5(339.5) (4.9)

Figures in brackets indicate value in Rs. million.Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Irrigation, New Delhi.

A. 73

Table 4.28

India: Import of Phosphatic and Complex Fertilizers

('000 tonnes)

April-MarchMateriallorigin of import

1975-76 1976-77

A. NPs:(a) 18-46-0 U.S.A. 442.f 30.1

Poland 6.6Total (a) 449.2 30.1

(1,167.8) (43.4)

(b) 20-20-0 Belgium 10.7France 39.7Italy 31.1Norway 6.0U.K. 40.7 34.6U.S.A. 7.6West Germany 115.1 - -

Total 250.8 34.6(40.2)

(c) 24-24-0 West Germany 9.0France 88.7Total 97.7

(d) 23-23-0 Holland 8.0

Total 8.0

NPs Total (a to d) 358.5 34.6(835.6) (40.2)

B. NPKs:(a) 13-13-20 West Germany 1.6

(b) 14-14-14 U.K. 10.0 _

(c) 17-17-17 France 55.4West Germany 5.2U.K. 15.0Total 75.6

(d) 15-15-15 West Germany 60.4U.K. 49.4 13.4France 12.9Austria 28.7Itlay 24.1Holland 9.8Total 185.3 13.4

(e) 17-17-16 U.K. 10.0Total 10.0

NPKs Total (a to e) 282.5 13.4(650.1) (22.8)

Figures in brackets indicate value in Rs. million.Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, New Delhi.

A. 74

Table 4.29

India: Import of Potassic Fertilizers

(1975-76 and 1976-77)

('000 tonnes)

April-MarchMateriaI origin of import _-

1975-75 ( 1976-77

Muriate of Potash 600% K,O

Canada 160.0 100.0

East Germany 195.7 185.1

West Germany - 149.2

U.S.S.R. 10.5 16.7

Total 867.1 451.0

(262.8) (350.8)

Sulphate of Potash 50% K,O

Wast Germany 10.5

Total 10.5

(12.3)

Figures in brackets indicate value in Rs. million.

Source: Indian Potash Ltd., Madras.

Table 4.30

India: Import of Fertilizer Materials - 1967-68 to 1976-77

(April-March)

Q-0uantiRy In '000 tonnogV--Valuu in Rs. million

Nitrogenous NP/NPKs Potassic Total

Year E .E

0 O 00

E fi E I 4 E - | E '.E _ o Vau >

V~~~~~~~~~~ 46. 7. 598. 49. IC. - 7.!8.z80 - 7. . ,3.

10C9-70 Q 700.1 *--0 E 0E 8 - E -0 4.0 E.UE~U E E,.: c oc" EO (i M CL 0cEL

-E' E-9 E:2 0~~~~~~s c i C i0 .1

1- 2-.- - 14 E -ea -4cL B z.. a - - 111967-68 Q 1,053.2 16.1 918.4 125.0 50.7 - 258.4 614.7 90.0 - - 439.0 5.0 868.7 348.7 270.2

V 3468.9 7.0 598.9 49.7 16.9 - 174.5 382.4 58.0 - - 171.8 2.5 1,933.11968-69 Q 1,255.8 10.5 1,028.6 90.0 46.6 27.0 50.2 216.2 113.0 - - 326.0 4.0 844.1 137.5 213.2

V 440.2 4.6 703.1 37.9 18.0 17.0 33.4 168.3 78.1 - - 126.9 1.8 1,629.21069-70 Q 700.1 2 0 938.1 82.9 - 8.9 - 125.1 184.0 - - 152.0 4.0 607.2 94.1 120.4

V 262.8 - 620.7 35.5 - 3.3 - 6 60.2 124.7 - - 52.4 2.1 1,167.7

1970-71 Q 83.3 24.6 779.8 219.8 - 17.4 - 12.0 121.0 - - 157.0 24.0 477.3 32.4 119.8V 27.5 10.3 458.9 108.8 - 9.7 - 7.1 65.9 - - 60.7 18.9 767.9

1971-72 Q 186.6 32.0 549.6 317.2 - - - 352.8 289.0 - - 362.0 - 481.3 247.8 268.2

V 31.2 11.4 240.4 113.7 - - - 200.0 183.6 - - 110.4 - 899.71972-73 Q 128.2 - 1,008.4 317.7 - 56.4 347.8 119.0 12.0 - 504.0 6.1 665.4 204.7 325.3

V 27.5 - 507.9 121.9 - 31.8 - 273.8 76.6 9.6 - 160.2 3.2 1,212.61973-74 Q 75.9 2.0 1,033.9 183.4 - 239.8 - 340.2 55.0 - - 607.0 5.0 658.8 212.7 370.4

V 39.0 1.8 737.1 105.6 - 202.0 - 359.8 44.2 - - 275.0 3.0 1,767.51974-75 Q 235.1 13.6 1,244.1 359.6 30.0 182.7 - 435.9 285.0 - 5.0 649.9 10.0 883.8 285.9 437.3

V 261.5 17.2 2,711.7 559.6 48.8 323.9 - 982.1 593A4 - 14.8 467.4 11.6 5,991.31975-76 Q 96.0 10.0 1,545.0 176.0 30.0 - - 536.0 618.0 - - 390.0 - 996.0 381.0 278.0

V 143.7 17.6 3,668.4 274.0 47.6 - - 1,477.6 1,271.5 - - 327.4 - 7,227.71976-77 Q - - 1,596.9 4,503.0 - 34.6 - 30.1 13.4 - - 441.0 10.5 750.1 22.8 277.8

V - - 1,772.7 4.9 - 40.2 - 43.4 22.8 - - 305.8 12.3 2,202.2'

*ProvisionalSource: Ministry of Agriculture & Irrigation, New Delhi.

A.76

Table 4.31

India: Ratio of Production and Imports to Total Consumption

(1952-53 to 1976-77)

(Percentage)

N 2___ 205Ratio of Produc- Ratio of Imports Ratio of Produc- Ratio of

tion to to tion to Imports toConsumption Deficit Consumption Consumption Deficit Consumption

1952-53 92 8 76 160 _

1953-54 59 41 21 166 ._

1954-55 72 28 21 95 _

1955-56 72 28 49 95 -

1956-57 64 36 46 111i-

1957-58 54 46 73 118 -

1958-59 47 53 56 105 - _

1959-60 37 63 62 95 -

1960-61 53 47 188 101 -

1961-62 62 38 123 108 - -

1962-63 58 42 73 106 - 12

1963-64 58 42 60 93 7 11

1964-65 44 56 42 88 12 8

1965-66 41 59 37 90 10 11

1966-67 42 58 86 59 41 59

1967-68 39 61 84 46 54 78

1968-69 47 53 70 56 44 36

1969-70 54 46 49 54 46 23

1970-71 56 44 32 42 58 6

1971-72 53 47 27 52 48 44

1972-73 57 43 36 57 43 35

1973-74 57 43 36 50 50 33

1974-75 67 33 50 70 30 61

1975-76 74 26 47 70 30 72

1976-77 75 25 30 75 25 19

1977-78 69 31 26 77 23 19

Source: Calculated from the data available in Table 3.2

Tuiae 4.J3

India: Consumption, Production, Imports and Excess Supply of NLtrogenous Fertilizers(1952-53 to 1976-77)

'000 tons Percentage

Excess Supplyas% of Inventory

Consum ption Consumption as% of TargetedTartet Actual Production Imports Inventory Total Supply Excess Supply Actual Tarjtet Consumption

1952-53 NA 57.8 53.1 44.0 0 97.1 39.3 68 NA

1953-54 Is 89.3 52.9' 19.0 39.3 111.5 22.2 25 if

1954-55 It 94.8 68.5 20.0 22.2 110.7 15.9 17 is

1955-56 ., 107.5 76.9 53.0 15.9 145.8 38.3 36 ..

1956-57 .* 123.1 78.8 57.0 38.3 174.1 51.0 41 of

1957-58 of 149.0 81.1 110.0 51.0 242.1 93.1 62

1958-59 172.6 80.8 97.0 93.1 270.9 98.3 57

1959-60 " 229.3 83.7 142.0 98.3 324.0 94.7 41 i .t

1960-61 376 211.7 112.0 399.0 94.7 605.7 394.0 186 105 25

1961-62 400 249.8 154.3 307.0 394.0 855.3 605.5 242 151 99

1962-63 NA 333.0 194.2 244.0 605.5 1043.7 710.7 213 NA

1963-64 376.8 219.1 228.0 710.7 1157.8 781.0 207

1964-65 555.2 243.2 232.0 781.0 1256.2 701.0 126 it

1965-66 1000 574.8 237.9 326.0 701.0 1264.9 690.1 120 69 70

1966-67 1000 737.8 309.0 632.0 690.1 1631.1 893.3 121 89 69

1967-68 1350 1034.6 402.6 867.0 893.3 2162.9 1128.3 109 84 66

1968-69 1700 1208.6 563.0 844.0 1128.3 2535.3 1326.7 110 78 66

1969-70 1700 1356.0 730.6 667.0 1326.7 2724.3 1368.3 101 80 78

1970-71 2000 1479.0 832.5 477.0 1368.3 2677.8 1198.8 81 60 68

1971-72 2400 1798.0 949.2 481.0 1198.8 2629.0 831.0 46 35 50

1972-73 2700 1839.0 1054.5 665.0 831.0 2550.5 711.5 39 26 31

1973-74 3200 1829.0 1049.9 659.0 711.5 2420.4 591.4 32 18 22

1974-75 2960 1765.7 1186.6 884.0 591.4 2662.0 896.3 51 30 20

1975-76 3400 2148.6 1508.0 996.0 896.3 3400.3 1251.7 58 58 26

1976-77 3400 2457.1 1862.0 750.0 1251.7 3863.7 1406.6 57 41 37

Table 4.33

India: Consumption, Production, Imports and Excess Supply of Phosphatic Fertilizers(1952-53 to 1976-77)

'000 tons -Percentage

Excess SupplyConsumption ~~~~~~~~ ~~ ~~~~~~a. 2 o f I Inventory

Consumption Consumption !as% of TargetedTarget Actual Production Imports Inventory Total Supply Excess Supply Actual Target Consumption

1952-53 NA 4.6 7.4 __ -- 7.4 2.8 61 NA NA

1953-54 t 8.3 13.8 __ 2.8 16.6 8.3 100 1 .l

1954-55 of 15.0 14.3 __ 8.3 22.6 7.6 51 of

1955-56 so 13.0 12.4 __ 7.6 20.0 7.0 54 If

1956-57 of 15.9 17.6 __ 7.0 24.6 7.0 44 is

1957-58 21.9 25.8 _ _ 7.0 32.8 10.9 50 Is

1958-59 29.5 31.0 -- 10.9 41.9 12.4 42 of

1959-60 * 53.9 51.4 4.0 12.4 67.8 13.9 26 it

1960-61 122.0 53.1 53.7 -- 13.9 67.6 14.5 27 12 11 ?

1961-62 100.0 60.5 65.4 -- 14.5 79.9 19.4 32 19 15 X

1962-63 NA 82.8 88.3 10.0 19.4 117.7 34.9 42 NA NA

1963-64 . 116.5 107.8 13.0 34.9 155.7 39.2 34 It o

1964-65 148.7 131.0 12.0 39.2 182.2 33.5 23 n A

1965-66 400.0 132.5 118.8 14.0 33.5 166.3 33.8 26 8 8

1966-67 370.0 248.6 145.7 148.0 33.8 327.5 78.9 32 21 9

1967-68 500.0 334.8 207.1 349.0 78.9 635.0 300.2 90 60 '16

1968-69 650.0 382.1 213.2 138.0 300.2 651.4 269.3 70 41 46

1969-70 650.0 416.0 223.7 94.0 269.3 587.0 171.0 41 26 41

1970-71 750.0 541.0 228.1 32.0 171.0 431.1 -109.9 9 9 23

1971-72 930.0 558.2 290.0 248.0 0 538.0 -20.2 9 9 0

1972-73 1150.0 581.3 330.0 204.0 0 554.0 -27.3 9 9 0

1973-74 1400.0 649.7 324.5 213.0 0 537.5 -112.2 9 a 0

1974-75 860.0 471.5 331.2 286.0 0 617.2 145.7 31 17 0

1975-76 1035.0 466.8 319.7 361.0 145.7 826.4 359.6 77 35 14

1976-77 870.0 635.3 478.0 22.8* 359.6 860.4 -9.6 -- -- 41

Table 4.34A

India: Expected Production of 'N' from Operating Units and Firm Projects

('000 tons)

Capacity 1977-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88

I. Operating Units:A. Public Sector

1. Sindri 90 14 50 50 60 75 75 75 75 75 75 752. Nangal 80 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 703. Trpmbay 81 82 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 704. Go'rakhpur 131 90 100 100 100 110 110 110 110 110 110 1105. Namrup 197 132 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 1706. Durgapur 152 80 100 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 1257. Barauni i52 68 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 1308. Udyogmandal 182 46 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 459. Cochin I 152 76 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 12510. Cochin II 40 25 30 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 3511. Rourkela 120 75 90 90 90 95 95 95 95 95 95 9512. Neyveli 70 40 40 40 40 50 55 55 55 55 55 5513. Madras 176 141 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 15014. By-Products 20 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Total of A 1543 961 1180 1220 1230 1270 1275 1275 1275 1275 1275 1275

B. Private Sector1. Varanasi 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 52. Ennore 16 9 5 - - - - - - - - -3. Baroda 216 169 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 1754. Vizag 83 65 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 705. Kota 152 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 1306. Kanpur 200 187 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 1807. Goa 171 160 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 1558. Tuticorin 258 185 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 2209. Mangalore 160 96 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 13610. By-Products 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Total of B 1270 1000 1080 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075

C. Co-op. Sector1. IFECO 2151 200 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

Total of A, B & C 3028 2155 2440 2475 2485 2525 2530 2530 2530 2530 2530 2530

Cont'd ... 2

Table 4.34APage 2

('000 tons)CoQ-

Capac- mis-ity sion-

('000 lngUnit T/a) Date 1977-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88

II. Prolects under implementation

D. Public Sector1. Nangal Exp. 152 3/78 25 70 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

2. Trombay IV 75 4/78 14 40 55 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65

3. Bhatinda 235 7/78 - 80 160 195 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

4. Sindri Mod. 129 10/78 - 30 90 105 110 110 110 110 110 110 110

5. Haldia 152 1/79 - 20 85 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

6. Panipat 235 1/79 - 30 135 160 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

7. Talcher 228 4/79 - - 115 160 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

8. Ramagundam 228 4/79 - - 115 160 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

9. Trombay V 130 10/80 - - - 35 85 105 110 110 110 110 110

1564 39 270 875 1130 1280 1300 1305 1305 1305 1305 1305

E. Private Sector1. Narmada V.C. 273 4/80 - - - 135 200 230 230 230 230 230 230

F. Co-op. Sector1. IFFCO,

Phulphur 228 9/79 - - 75 145 185 195 195 195 195 195 195

TOTAL (D+E+F) 2065 39 270 950 1410 1665 1725 1730 1730 1730 1730 1730

G. Total (A to F) 5093 2200 2710 3425 3895 4190 4255 4260 4260 4260 4260 4260

H. ProductionLoss at 5Z -135 -170 -195 -210 -215 .215 -215 -215 -215 -215

I. Net Produc- 2200 2575 3255 3700 3980 4040 4045 4045 4045 4045 4045

tion (G-H)

Source: The Working Group Report, 1978, Annex 2.

A. 81

Table 34.B

India: Nitrogen Capacity Planning for 100% Self Sufficiency New Start.

and Expected Production

('000 tons)

Project Capacity Start Up Date ofDate Production 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88

h Public Sector:

1. Asas Unit 152 7/78 1/82 - 20 85 115 130 130 130 130

2. Korb& 228 4/79 10/82 - - 50 125 160 IS0 180 180

3. Revas 1 345 7/78 7182 - - 130 235 285 290 290 290

4. Rawas 1I 345 1/79 1/83 - - 40 190 265 290 290 290

T o t a 1 1070 - 20 305 665 840 890 890 890

B. Private Sector:

5. -arginal NaphthaExpansion 100 100 4/78 7/80 30 65 80 85 85 85 85 85

6. Nagarjuna Farts. 228 4/78 7/81 - 85 150 185 190 190 190 190

T o t a 1 328 30 150 230 270 275 275 275 275

C. Cooperative Sector:

7. Cujarat 1 345 1/79 1/83 - - 40 190 265 290 290 290

D. Unidentified AdditionalProjects:

8. Cujarat II 345 7/79 7/83 - - - 130 235 285 290 290

9. Project A 345 4/80 4/84 - - - - 170 255 290 290

10. Project B 345 4/81 4/85 - - - - - 170 255 290

11. Project C 345 1/82 1/86 - - - - - 40 190 265

12. Project D 345 1/83 7/86 - - - - - - 130 235

13. Project e 345 7/83 1/87 - - - - - - 40 190

14. Project F 345 1/84 7/87 - - - - - - - 130

S o t a1 2415 130 405 750 1195 1690

Grand Total(A+E+C+D) 4158 30 170 575 1255 1785 2205 2650 3145

Production Losee 5S - 10 30 60 90 110 130 155

Net Production 30 160 540 1195 1695 2095 2520 2990

Note: It is epected that, with experience gained, projects D, E&F could be implenented in a shorter period

of 3½ years against 4 years provided for the earlier projects.

Source: Report of the Working Group, 1978.

Table 4.34C

India: NitroRen - Summary of Demand and Supply at 100% Self-Sufficiency

('000 tons)

Description 77-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88

1. Phasing of installationof capacity (as at theend of the year)a. Operating units

+ projects undererection 3180 4006 4674 5077 5077 5077 5077 5077 5077 5077 5077b. New projects 100 480 1743 2088 2433 3123 3813 4158

Total 3180 4006 4674 5177 5557 6820 7165 7510 8200 8890 9235

2. Anticipated production froma. Operating units

+ projects undererection 2200 2575 3255 3700 3980 4040 4045 4045 4045 4045 4045b. New projects 30 160 540 1195 1695 2095 2520 2990 >

;0Total 2200 2575 3255 3730 4140 4580 5240 5740 6140 6565 7035

.3. Average capacity -69% 64X 70% 72%- 74% 67% 731- 76% 75% 73% 76%utilizationincludingnew capacity

4. Projected demand 3000 3400 3700 4000 4300 4760 5200 5620 6050 6550 7075

5. Surplus (+)/ -800 -825 -445 -270 -160 -180 +40 +120 +90 +15 -40Deficit (-)

6. Level of self- 70% 76% 88% 93% 961 96% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%sufficiency

Source: Report of the Working Group, 1978.

Table 35A

India: Expected Production of P 0

('000 tons)Sr. Capac-No. Plant/Proiect its 77-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-881. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.

I. OPERATING UNITS

A. PUBLIC SECTOR

1. Single Super- 38 21 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25Phosphate *A

2. Trombay 36 41 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 353. Udyogamandal 37 23 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 254. Madras 112 95 90 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 955. Cochin II 114 34 70 85 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Total of A 337 214 240 265 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270

B. PRIVATE SECTOR

6. Ennore 10 11 5 - - - - - - - - -7. Baroda 50 34 35 40 45 45 45 45 45 458. Vizag 104 70 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 809. Goa 42 35 35 35 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 4010. Tuticorin 51 22 30 35 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40lie DMCC-TSP I! - - 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 512. SSP Units 183 125 145 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

Total of B 451 297 330 345 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360

Cont'd ... 2

Table 35APage 2Page-2 ('000 tons)

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. , 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.

13. Kandla 127 151 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110

II. PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION

D. PUBLIC SECTOR

14. Khetri 90 12 50 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 7015. Sindri 156 13 80 110 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

Rationalization16. Trombay IV 75 13 40 55 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 6017. Haldia 75 - - 30 55 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Total of D 396 38 170 265 305 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

Grand Total (A to D) 1311 700 850 985 1045 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050Production loss at 5Z - - 40 45 45 50 50 50 50 50 50 50Net Production - 700 810 940 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Source: Report of the Working Group, 1978.

Table 4.35B

India: Capacity Planning for 100l Self-Sufficiency in P205

('000 tons)

Starting ProductionProject Date Date Capacity 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88

A. Cooperative Sector

1. Kandla 4/78 4/80 43 20 30 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

B. Private Sector

1. Kakinada 4/80 4/82 81 - - - - 40 60 65 65 65

2. MPIDC 1/79 4/82 50 - - - 25 35 40 40 40 40 >oo

Total of Private Sector 131 25 75 100 105 105 105

C. Public SectorUnidentified

4. Paradeep 7/78 10/81 300 - 75 180 225 240 240 240 240

5. A. 7/79 10/82 300 - - 75 180 225 240 240 240

6. B. 1/80 4/83 200 - - - 100 150 160 160 160

7. C. 7/81 10/84 300 - - - - 75 180 225 240

8. D. 1/82 4/85 200 - - - - - 100 150 160

9. E. 1/83 4/86 300 - - - - - - 150 225

10. F. 1/84 4/87 300 - - - - - - - 150

Total 1900 75 255 565 690 920 1165 1415

D. Grand Total (A to C) 2074 20 30 110 315 615 825 1060 1305 1555

E. Production loss Q 5% - - - 5 15 30 40 50 65 75

F. Net Production 20 30 105 300 585 785 1010 1240 1480

Source: Report of the Working Group. 1978.

Table 4.35C

India: Summary of Supply and Demand at 100X Self Sufficiency in P 205

('000 tons)

Description 1977-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88

1. Phasing ofinstallation ofcapacity (as atthe end of the year)

a) operating units andprojects underimplementation 1023 1254 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301

b) New projects - - 43 43 343 693 974 1274 1474 1774 2074

Total 1023 1254 1344 1344 1644 1994 2275 2575 2775 3075 3375

2. Anticipated Pto-duction from

a) Operating unitsand under erec-tion 700 820 940 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

b) New projects 20 30 105 300 585 785 1010 1240 1480Total 700 820 960 1030 1105 1300 1585 1785 2010 2240 2480

3. Average capacityutilization in-cluding newcapacity 68% 65Z 711 77% 67% 65% 70% 69% 72% 73% 73%

4. Projected Demand 800 870 990 1110 1260 1425 1600 1790 2000 2240 2500

5. Surplus (+)/ -100 -50 -30 -80 -155 -125 -15 -5 + 10 - -20Deficit -

6. Level of selfsufficiency 88% 94% 97% 93% 88% 91% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99%

Source: Re!pQrt of the Working Group, 1978.

A. 87

Table 4.36

India: Import of Rockphosphate and Sulphur

(1967-68 to 1976-77)

('000 tonnes)

Country |1967-68 1568-6911969.70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-741 1974-75 1975-76: 1976-77

ROCKPHOSPHATE1. Jordan 367 4312 297 47 349 391 358 469 113 1522. Morocco 0.1 '!0 14 183 87 79 199 234 127 1683. Senegal - 10 - 27 - 25 12 - 47 534. Tunisia 19 47 - 18 86 - - - -

5. Florida 95 250 288 451 320 380 310 228 226 2126. Japan - 4 - - - - - - _ _7. Spanish

Sahara - - - - - - 118. Egypt 60 74 47 30 - -

9. Kenya - 8 -

10. Algeria 35 -- - - - - - - - -

11. Togo 18 - - - - - - -

12. West Africa(Spain) 5 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

13. Yugoslavia 5 - - - - - - -

Total 604 845 646 756 842 875 879 942 513 585(93.3) (128.5) (87.2) (123.2) (112.0) (137.0) (300.0) (330.4) (247.5) (221.7)

SULPHUR1. Canada --245 214 208 292 193 131 149 83 79 2252. Iran - -- 25 84 220 146 247 288 157 -1473. Poland 29 :20 - 153 205 259 41 107 79 784; Iraq - - - - - 3 115 124 178 1405. Kuwait - - - 3 10 16 13 17 666. U.S.S.R. 4 - - 10 - - 21 33 26 437. France 29 8 21 7 - - - - 78. U.S.A. 239 73 6 - - - 119. Poland (Iraq) - - 58 - _ _ _ 29 - 47

10. Germany,Fed. Rep. of 11 0.6 0.2 - - - - - - -

11. Mexico 64- 17 - - - - - - - 4012. U.K. 0.1 1.2 0.1 - - - - - - -

13. Bolivia 13 5 - - -

14. German,Dem. Rep. 2

15. Behrain - - - - - - - 2616. D.P.R.K. - - - - - - - - - _17. Netherlands -31 Neg. Neg.

18. Qatar - '- - 5

Total 668 338 324 547 621 589 5S9 688 562 795(367.4) (177.3) (107.0) (94.4) (106.0) (97.0) (176.6) (351.0) (277.4) 311.3)

Fig4res in brackets indicate the value in Rs. million.Source: 1. Monthly Statistics ofthe Foreign Trade of India.

2. Minerais & Metals Trading Corporation of India Ltd., New Delhi.

Table 5.1

INDIA: cuRRENT PRICES OF FERTILISERS IN TERMS OF NUTRIENT(Incluslve of Excise Duty) (50 kg packing)

Retail price of nutrient (Rs.) .iw

Effective from Nutrient Aninionluni Urea Calcium aninonium Super- Murialesulphate' nitraele phospliate of(20.61% N) ~~~~~~~~~~(16%,1, w.s. potash.

(20.6% N) (46/ N) (45%y, N) (26% N) (25 "N) P6 )J (60%. K,O)

December 1, 1975 per tonne 4,539 4,022 4,022 4.077 4,060 5,295 1.825per kg 4.54 4.02 4.02 4.08 4.06 5.30 1.83

March 16, 1976 per tonne 4,539 3.804 3,800 4,077 4,060 3.9513 1,517per kg 4.54 3.80 3.80 4.08 4.06 3.95 1.52

October 18, 1976 per tonne 4,539 3.804 3,800 4,077 4.060 3,156 1,517- per kg 4.54 3.80 3.80 4.08 4.06 3.16 1.52

February 8, 1977 per tonne 4,539 3,587 3,578 4.077 4,060 3,156 1,342per kg 4.54 3.59 3.58 4.08 4.06 3.16 1.34

October 12, 1977 per lonne 4,539 3,370 3.356 4,077 4,060 3,269' 1,342per kg 4.54 3.37 3.36 4.08 4.06 3.27 1.34

I/ Effective from 1-6-19742/ Effective from 18-7-19753/ Effective from 17-3-19764/ Effective from 1-12-1977

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. The FAI, New Delhi, 1977.

A. 89

Table 5.2

India: Prtce of Ammonium Sulphate - 1944 to 1957

(Rs. ber lont ton

Period/Date Price Rema-ks

April 1, 1944 241 P.O.R. main port

November 1, 1944 253 do

Aulgust 16, 1945 245 do

June 1, 1946 230 do

April 1, 1947 265 do

February 2, 1948 271 do

April 1. 1948 290 do

October 1. 1948 294 do

November 1, 1948 304 do

January 1. 1949 325 do

September 1. 1949 330 do

April 2, 1950 325 do

October 1, 1950 320 do

July 1, 1951 345 do

October 1, 1951 360 do

January 1, 1952 355 do

April 1, 1952 380 do

October 1, 1952 365 do

January 1,- December 1953 290 F.O.R. Sindri

310 for Imported sulphate of asmonia

January 1 - July 31. 1953 330 for industrial consumers.

Auguat 1.- December 31, 1953 335 Indian Coffee Board and

Januar U.P.A.S.I.January 1,-1953 - January 18, 1954 do

January 19, 1954 - December 31, 1954 315 F.O.R. works freight paidto rail-head destination.

In the case of privateparties the above priceoperated from 15th Marchand for industrial purposeit operated from 3rd May,1954.

January 1. 1954 - June 30, 195i 315 P.O.R. works freight paidto rail-head destination forState Governments.

325 F.O.R. works freight paid torail-head destination forprivate parties like tea,coffee plantations andindustrial concerns fromFebruay 1, 1955 to June 30,1955.

July 1, 1955 - Marcb 25, 1957 315 F.O.R. works freight psid torail-head destinations forState Governments.

July 1, 1955 - June 17, 1956 320 F.O.R. works freight paid torail-head destinations forprivate parties like, tea,coffee, etc.

325 F.O.R. works freight up toRa.35 per ton to be borneby Government for industrialconsumers.

June 18. 1956 - March 25, 1957 315 P.O.R. works freight paid torail-head destinations forState Governments.

335 F.O.R. works freight paid torail-head destinations forprivate parties like tea,coffee, etc.

March 26, 1957 - July 11, 1957 350 For States(F.O.R.)freight paid.375 For plantations (except North-

East India) and industry.392 For North East India Tea

mixtures.

Source: Report of the Fertilizer Distrtbution Enquiry Committee. Reproducedfrom Feretilizer Statistics, 1960-61.

A, 90

Table 5.3

India - Price of Ammonium Sulphate, 1957 to 1977(exclusive of sales tax and other local taxes)

(Re. per ton)

For plantations For tea planta- For Cultivators inother than tea tions in Other States

Effective from in North-East North-East 4 & UnioaIndia India U.P. Tamil Nadu Orissa Territories

A: Differential Prices: 1957 to 1965

July 12, 1957 *22.00 405.00 380.00 380.00 380.00 380.00

November 11, 1957 do do 386.00 do do 380.00

July 29, 1958 do do do 390.00 do do

August 8, 19 do do do do 390.80 do

October 23, 1961 415.80 399.10 380.00 385.14 384.50 374.50

December 1, 1961 do do 366.00 371.00 370.00 360.00

December 13, 1961 do do do 370.20 do do

January 1, 1962 401.30 384. 60 do do do do

October 5, 1962 384.60 do do do do do

January 1, 1964 384.60 384.60 366.00 370.20 373.00 360.00

April 1. 1964 374.60 do do do do do

October 1, 1964 do 374.60 do do do do

April 15, 1965 366.00 370.20 373.00 360.00

AauJt 8, 1965 (374.60) (374.60) (374.60) (374.60)

360.00 370.20 373.00 360.00

- (374.60) - (370.60)

3. All rndia Uniform Prices, 1966 to 1977

MaximumRetail Price Remarks

February 2, 1966 405.00 Increase in distribution margins

April 1, 1967 492.00 Withdrawal of the subsidy introduced in June '66to compensate for the devaluation of the rupee.

April 19, 1968 502.00 Increase in distribution targins.

April 17, 1969 539.00 Imposition of 101 ad velorum excise duty ia March '69.

March 30, 1972 549.00 Increase in excise duty to 151 ad velorum.

October U, 1973 600.00 Increase in price of naphtha

June 1, 1974 935.00 Increase in oil prices.

a inclusive of sales tax and other local duties.

Notes: 1) Prices are in rupees per long ton till October 22, 1961, and in rupees permetric ton thereafter.

2) Figures in parentheses indicate pricees of pool fertilizers when sold for theuse of tea, coffee or rubber plantations in the states mentioned above.

3) Retail price is higher by Rs.ll a ton upto 10-10-73 and Rs.10 a tonnev.e.f. 11-10-73 when supplied in 50 Kg. capacity packing.

4) Pool fertilizers are delivered per ton gross, F.O.R. works/ports freightpaid by Central Fertilizer Pool upto railhead destination by shortestand cheapest route.

5) All retail prices listed above are Rs. per ton gross upto April 30, 1975and on net basis vith effect frotm May 1, 1975.

Source: Fertili2er Statistics. 1965-66 to 1976-7.

A.91

Table 5.4

ladLe: Price of tirea (46%N) 1952 to 1917

(exclusive of sales tax and other local taxes)

_Rs. Per ton)I'eriod/effective

from Price Rarks

A. Pre-Fertilizer (Control), Order, 1957 Prices

1951-53 to 1953-54 290.0 excluding freight

195i-55 to May 6, 1956 570.0

May 7. 1956 to March 31, 1957 600.0 including freight

AprU. 1. 1957 to July 11, 1957 710.0

S. ifferential Prices: 1957 to 1965

For plantations For tea plants- For cultivators inother than tea tiona in Other Statesin North-East North-East S Union

India India U.P Tamil Nadu' Orissa Territories

JulF 12, 1957 740.00 740;00 740.00 740.00 740.00 740.00

Novamber 11, 1957 do do 760.00 do do 745.00

Ju.lv 29, 1958 do do 760.00 751.60 740.00 740.00

Oct)ber 23, 1961 755.00 729. 10 733.10 724.00 729.10 729.10

Dec!mber 1, 1961 do do 719.00 711.00 715.00 715.00

Decamber 13, 1961 do do do do 720.40 do

Jansary 1, 1962 740.90 715.00 do do do do

Oct ber 5, 1962 715.00 io do do do do

Jeasnry 1, 1964 615.00 615.00 615.90 617.40 615.00 615.00

AprLl 1, 1964 615.00 615.00 615.90 617.40 615.00 615.00

Octaber 1, 1964 615.00 615.00 615.90 617.40 615.00 615.00

Apr1 15, 1965 615.90 617.40 615.00 615.00

(615.90) (617.40) (615.00) (615.00)

Augist 8, 1965 615.00 632.55 615.00 615.00

- (615.00) - (615.00)

C: All India Uniform Prices. 1966 to 1977

Xncre..., in distribution margias

Vithdrawal of the subaidy introduced in

February 1. 1966 Jun. 1966.Febipaary 1, 1966 680.00 Increase in distribution margins

April1 1, 1967 140.00 Imposition of 10 advalorus excise duty

April 19, 1968 In March 1969.

April 17. 1969 943.00 Increase in excise duty (15%)

Harth 9, 1971 923 00 Rise in the price of naphthaMarb 9. 1971 ~~~~~~~~~923.00March 30. 1972 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Increase in oil prices due to global

Mcrb 30, 1972 959.00 emray crisis

Octc her 11. 1973 ~~~~~~1050.00Juno. 1, 1974 2000.00

Jul] 18, 1975 1850.00

March 16, 1976 1 10(

Mebuary 8, 1977 1750.00 Reductions tn the Fertilizer Pool1650.00 Equalization Charts.

Octber 12, 1977 1550.00

* :nclusive of sales tax and local taxes.

Not:s: 1) Prices are in rupees per long ton till October 22, 1961 and in rupees permetric ton thereafter.

2) Figures in parenthese indicate prices of pool fertilizers when sold for theuse of tea, coffee, or rubber plantations in the States mentioned above.

3) Pool fertilizers are delivered per ton gross F.O.R. work/ports freightpaid by Central Fertilizer Pool upto railhead destination by shortestand cheapest route.

4) All retail prices listed above are Rs. per ton gross upto April 30. 1975and on net basis with effect from May 1, 1975.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1960-61 to 1976-77.

A.92

Table 5.5

India: Price of Calctum Amm.enium Nitrate. 1954-1977

(20. SXN)

(Rs, ner toan

Period/Effectivefrom Price Remarks

A. Pre-Fertilizer (Control) Order. 1957 Prices:

1954-55 to Hay 6, 1956 280 excluding freight

May 7, 1956 to Harch 31, 1957 280 including freight

April 1, 1957 to July 11, 1957 330 including freight

B. Differential Prices, 1957 to 1966

For plantation For tea planta-other then tea tions in Other Statesin North-East North-East & Union

India India U.P. Tamil Nadua Orissa Territories

July 12, 1957 360.00 360.00 360.00 360.00 360.00 360.00

July 29, 1958 360.00 360.00 360.00 360.20 360.00 360.00

October 23. 1961 354.80 354.80 359.00 354.54 354.80 354.80

December 1, 1961 do do 346.60 342.00 342.00 342.00

December 13, 1961 do do do 351.60 do do

January 1, 1962 do 342.00 do do do do

October 5, 1962 310.00 310.00 314.00 319.60 310.00 310.00

January 1, 1964 do do do do 321.00 do

April 1. 1964 310.00 310.00 314.00 319.60 321.00 310.00

October 1. 1964 310.00 310.00 314.00 319.60 321.00 310.00

April 15, 1965 (314.00) (319.60) (321.00) (310.00)

August 6, 1965 346.00 351.60 353.00 342.00

- (342.00) - (342.00)

C: All India Uniforn Prices: 1966 to 1977

Maximum Retail Price(50kg. packing) Remarks

20.5 XN 252N 262N

April 1, 1966 3Rs.n - 4R5.C" Increase in distribution margins.

April 1, 1967 437 5 1 0 535.0 Withdrawal of the subsidy of June 1966(devaluation effect).

April 17, 1969 473 545 575.0 Imposition of 102 ad valorem excise duty.

March 30. 1972 - 565.0 594.0 Increase in excise duty (15%)

October 11, 1973 - 615.0 645.0 Inc:ease in price of naphtha

June 1, 1974 - 1095.0 1145.0 Increase in oil prices.

July 18, 1975 - 1015.0 1060.0 Decrease In the Fertilizer PoolEqualization Charge.

a Inclusive of sales tax and other local taxes.b. Effective from August 1, 1966.c. " A" f.pril 1, 1967.d. August 20, 1967.e. " March 1, 1969.f. " hay 26, 1969.

Notes: 1) Prices are In rupees pet long ton till October 22, 1961 and in rupeesper metric ton thereafter;

2) Flgures in parentheses indicate prices of pool fertilizers vhen soldfor thc use of tea, coffee, or rubber plantations in the Statesmentioned above.

3) Pool fertilizern; are delivered per ton grona F.O.R. onrka/ports freightpaid by Ccntral Fertilizer Pool upto ralihead destination by nhorteat andcheapest ro, te.

4) All retail pricu listed above are Rs. per ton groas upto April 30, 1975and no n(*t bamn with effect frnm Nfay 1, 1975.

Source: FnrtllI-r Stulut1cfl, 19r0-6l_ Lo 19f-77.

Table 5.6

India: Price of Ammonium Sulphate Nitrate, 1955-75

(26% N)

A. Pre-Fertilizer (Control) Order, 1957 Prices:

(Rs. Per ton)

Period/Date Price Remarks

1954-55 to May 6. 1956 380.00 excluding freighttray 7, 1956 to March 31, 1957 380.00 including freight

Aprii 1, 1957 to July 11, 1957 420.00 "

B. Diffarential Prices: 1957 to 1965:

For plantation For tea planta- For cultivators inother than tea tions in Other States

in North-East North-East & UnionIndia India U.P. Tamil Nadua Orissa Territories

July,12, 1957 450.00 450.00 450.00 450.00 450.00 450.00

Novenber 11, 1957 do do 458.20 do do do

July 29, 1958 do do do 452.90 do do

October 23, 1961 460.00 443.50 446.00 432.00 443.50 443.50

Deceinber 1, 1961 do do 438.00 432.00 435.00 435.00

December 13, 1961 do do do 422.30 do do

Januu.ary 1, 1962 451.50 453.00 do do do do

October 5, 1962 435.00 do do do do do

Ja.nuary 1, 1964 do do do do 433.00 do

April 1, 1964 435.00 435.00 438.00 442.30 443.00 435.00

O_LoLbr 1, 1964 435.00 435.00 438.00 442.30 443.00 435.00

April 15, 1965 438.00 442.00

(438.00) (442.30) (44i3.00) (435.00)August 8, 1965 438.00 447.39 443.00 435.00

-- (435.00) -- (435.00)

A.94

Table ;.6 (Cont'd)

C: All Tndie Uniform Prices: 196, to '371

(Rs. per ton)Maximum Retail Price

(50kg packing) Remarks

February 1, 1966 515.00 Increase in distribution margins.April 1, i967 577.00 Withdr-wp of the subsidy introduced ilApril 17, 1969 626. 00 une 1966.Apobri 17, 1969 626.00b Imposition of 10% excise duty.October 22, 1971 626*00b Statutory Decontrol of the price.

D. Decontrolled Prices:

Imported IndigeneousPool Issue Max. Retail Ex-factoryPrice Price Price RemarR.s

October 22, 1971 626.0

April 1, 1972 650.0 Increase in excise duty.October 14, 1973

715 .0 c Increase in naphtha price.May 14, 1974 715.0d 775 .0d Increase in naphtha price.June 1, 1974 1085.0d 1145.0d

September 16, 1974 1085.0 c Oil crisis

July 18, 1975 1060.0 Moderate fall in importcosts.

a. Prices are inclusive of sales tax ar.d other local taxes.b. Aessonium sulphate nitrate price ceased to be statutorily controlled w.e.f.

October 22, 1971.c. Includes 15% excise duty - 10% imposed on March, 1969 and another 5% impose:d on

March 17, 1972.d. Besides 15% excise duty, 5% auxiliary duty, imposed on March 1, 1973 is included.

Notes: 1) Prices are in rupees per lcng ton till October 22, 1961 and in rupeesper metric ton thereafter.

2) Figures in parentheses indicate prices of pool fertilizers wqhen soldfor the use of tea, coffee, or rubber plantations in the Statesmentioned above.

3) Pool fertilizers are delivered per ton gross F.O;R. works/ports freightpaid by Central Fertilizer Pool upto railhead destination by shorte5tand cheapest route.

4) All retail prices listed abcve are Rs. per ton gross upto April 30, 1975and on net basis with effect from May 1, 1975.

Source: Fertilizer Stntistics, 1960-61 to '976-1977.

A.95

Table 5.7

India: Price of Ammonium Chloride, 1962 to 1977(25% N)

(c- per ton)Imported Indigeneous

Date/Effective Pool Issue Retail Retailfrom Price Price Price Remarks

January 1962 452.0

April, 1965 400.0 455.0

May, 1966 - - 445.0

April, 1967 450.0 505.0

July, 1967 - - 540.0

March, 19.69 484.0a 539.08

September 11, 1971 - - 545.0a in UP and Bihar

555.0a in M.P., W.B., A.P.,Haryana and E. Rajas-than.

570.Oa Gujarat, Maharashtra,Punjab, and W. Rajas-than.

March 17, 1972 - - 57008

October 16, 1973 - 760.0a

June 4, 1974 1040.0b 1 0 9 5 . 0 b 1415.08a

July 18, 1975 995.Ob 1345.0c Eastern U.P. and BEhar.

July 22, 1975 1385.0c Central and Western U.P.

a. Includes excise duty, introduced in March 1969 (10%) and March 1971(another 5%).

b. Includes excise duty as well as 5% auxiliary duty introduced in March 1973.c. Includes excise duty and sales tax.

Notes: (1) and (3) from Table 5.6

(2) and (4) from Table 5.6

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77.

A.96

Table 5.8

India: Proportion of Indigeneously Produced Nitrogenous Fertilizers

Acquired by the Central Fertilizer Pool, 1965-70.

Date Proportion of Indigeneously Produced FertilizersAcquired (%)

Before October, 1966 100%

October, 1966 - September 1967 70%

October 1967 - September 1968 50%

October, 1968 - March 1969 30%

April, 1969 and thereafter 0

Source: Compiled from the information available in A Study on Fertilizer Demandand Marketing: All-India Summary Report, 1974.

A. 97

Table 5.9

India: The Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge. 1974-77

(Rs. per ton)

Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge onAmmonium Calcium Ammonium

Date Urea Sulphate Nitrate

Jlne 1, 1974 610.0 195.0 295.0

Jlily 18, 1975 335.0 135.0 155.0

S,lptember 15, 1975 265.0 100.0 115.0

March 16, 1976 3.65.0 100.0 115.0

November 1, 1977 65.0 100.0 115.0

Source: Handbook on Fertilizer Marketing. The Fertilizer Association of India,

New Delhi, 1976.

Table 5.10

India: Production, Distribution and Imports of Fertilizers 1973-74 and 1974-75

('000 tons)

1973-74 1974-75

Urea Ammonium Calcium Urea Ammonium Calcium(469.N) Sulphate Ammonium (46%N) Sulphate Ammonium

(20.67.N) Nitrate (20.6%N) Nitrate (25%)(25%N) _

1. Production 1407 575 431 1734 589 407

2. Imports 1034 76 183* 1244 235 360*

3. Distribution 2280 629 419 + 178* 2684 757 431 + 290*

4. CapacityUtilization** 53 61 52 53 62 51

5. Expected outputat 80% capacityutilization level 2133 754 663 2617 760 638

6. Expected outputat 90% capacityutilization level 2389 848 746 2945 855 718

* 26% N content.

** Measured as %.

A.99

Table 5.11L

India: Prices of NP and NPK Complex Fertilizers

(Exclusive of Sales Tax and Local Taxee but Inclusive of excise duty*)

(Rs. per ton)

Imported Pool Fertilirers Fer_ir__e_ s

Froduct/ Effective Pool Issue Retail Retail

Crade from Price Price Price Remarka

1. Ammonium Phosphate

(19-20-0) July 1975 2340.0 2470.0

December 1. 1975 2160.0 -Fall in import costs

February 8, 1977 2030.0 and prices.

(20-20-0) August, 1963 565.0 717.0 in Andhra Pradesh

610.0 in other States.

February 1966 590.0 660.0

Aprl. 1967 738.0 818.0

Mtarch, 1969 814.0 894.0

April, 1972 (822.0) 1035.0

October, 1973 1140.0 1220.0 1400.0 Increase Ln naphtha

prices.

June, 1974 1775.0 1855.0 2300.0 Oil crisis.

August 3, 1974 - - 2500.0

April, 1975 - - 2750.0

July, 1975 1670.0 1780.0' 2650.0 Decrease in import

costs and prices.

December, 1975 - 1660.0 2450.0

March 16, 1976 2150.0

February 8, 1977 1590.0 2080.0

(16-20-0) April, 1967 815.00 Ex-depot, Inclusiveof sales tax.

Mtrch. 1969 365.15 FOR destination.

September i8, 1971 915.0 in Rerala

935.0 in Karnataks, A.P.and T.S.

)arch 27, 1972 980.0

October 19, 1973 1300.0

Jime 6, 1974 2100.0

August 3, 1974 2300.0

April. 1975 2525.0

July, 1975 2430.0

(16-20-0) December. 1975 22J0.9

March 16, l9,o 1930.0 1840.0 for twoMatch 16. 1906 factories.

February 8. 1977 1860.0 1700.0 for twofactories.

(19.5-19.5-0) April 1975 2300.0

July 1975 2200.0

March 16. 1976 1890.0

February 8, 1977 1620.0

(18-9-0) July 1975 1528.0

March 16, 1976 1380.0

Fehrimarv 8, 1477 1320.0

A. 100

Table 5.11 (Cont'd)p.

2

IndigenousIn.orted Pon1 Fertilizers Fertilizors

Product/ Effective Pool Issue Retaill RetailGrade from Price Price Price Remarks

2. Di-&rmmonium Phosphote:

(18-46-0) April. 1966 750.0 833.0

April, 1967 1000.0 1095.0

March, 1969 1122.0 1217.0

(1131.50)

May 13, 1971 1345.0

March 17, 1972 1151.0 1246.0

April 1, 1972 1402.0

October, 1973 1240.0 1335.0

(1435.0)

June, 1974 2910.0 3005.5

September 15, 1974 3005.0 to

3100.0

July, 1975 2665.0 2805.0 2805.0 to2900.0

December, 1975 2460.0 2600.0 -

March/April, 1976 2210.0 2120.0 in Gujarat.

2210.0 outside Gujarat.

3. Mono Amnonium Phosphate:

(U-55-0) January, 1973 1225.0 1325.0

June, 1974 3040.0 3140.0

July, 1975 2795.0 2935.0

December, 1975 2685.0

February, 1977 2325.0

4. Urea Ammonium Phosphate:

(28-28-0) March, 1969 1232.0

September 1, 1971 1252.0

March 21, 1972 1312.0

September, 1973 1493.0

July 13, 1974 2850.0

January, 1975 2935.0

April, 1975 3280.0

July, 1975 3180.0 to3300.0

December, 1975 3030.0

March 16, 1976 2600.0

February 8. 1977 2500.0

(14-35-14) April, 1972 1350.0

Septomber, 1973 1493.0

July 13, 1974 2850.0

January 8, 1975 2935.0

April, 1975 3280.0

July, 1975 31£0.0

December, 1975 2930.0

Marcdi 16, 1976 2355.0

February, 1977 2230.0

A. 101

Table 5.11 (Cunt'd)

p.3

IndigenousProduct/ Effective Imported Pool Fertilizers FertilizersGrade from Pool Issue Retail Retail

Price Price Price Remarks

5. Nitrophosphate

(20-20-0) May, 1968 738.0 818.0

March 1969 800.0 880.0 900.0(808.0)

March, 1972 829.0 909.0 972.0

October, 1973 1120.0 1200.0

June, 1974 1775.0 1855.0

July, 1975 1670.0 1780.0

December, 1975 1660.0 2240.0

March, 1976 1950.0

February 8, 1977 1590.0 1760.0

(15-15-15) February, 1968 760.0 840.0

March, 1969 832.0 912.0 870.0

March 17, 1972 862.0 942.0

April 1, 1972 942.0

October 14, 1973 1295.0 1375.0 1150.0

June, 1974 1620.0 1700.0

September 16, 1974 1800.0

July, 1975 1595.0 1700.0 1840.0

December, 1975 1540.0 1645.0

March 16, 1976 - - 1570.0

April 20, 1976 - 1570.0

February 8, 1977 1520.0

(23-23-0) June, 1974 2040.0 2i20.0

July, 1975 1920.0 2035.0

December 1, 1975 1910.0

February, 1977 1760.0

(24-24-0) July, 1975 2940.0 3080.0 3150.0

December, 1975 2510.0 2650.0 2650 to2700

March, 1976 2155.0 2295.0 2270.0

April 20, 1976 - 2270.0 -

Februairy 8, 1977 - 2045.0 2100.0

(26-14-0) May, 1974 1200.0 1230.0

Juic, 1974 1740.0 1820.0

July, 1975 1635.0 1745.0

Deccober, 1975 1645.0

Fcbrj3ry, 1977 1555.0

A.102

Table 5.11(Cont'd)p.4

IndigenousImported rool Fertilizers Fertilizers

Product/ Effective Pool Issue Retail Retail

Grade from Price Price Price Remarks

6. NPK Cornlex Fertilizers:

(11-11-11) June, 1974 1190.0 1260.0

July, 1975 1170.0 1260.0

December 1, 1975 1220.0

February, 1977 1150.0

(13-13-13) Junc, 1970 710.0 782.0(717.0)

June, 1974 1405.0- 1475.0

July, 1975 13e0.0 1475.0

December, 1975 - 1425.0

February, 1977 - 1340.0

(13-13-20) July, 1975 2010.0 2130.0

December, 1975 1990.0

February, 1977 1905.0

(14-14-14) April, 1967 700.0 775.0

March, 1969 755.0 830.0 856.62(763.50)

March, 1972 784.0 859.0

June, 1974 1515.0 1590.0

July, 1975 1495.0 1590.0

December, 1975 - 1540.0

February 1450.0

(17-17-17) June 1, 1972 1100.0

October, 1973 1260.0

October, 1974 2505.0

April, 1975 2775.0

July, 1975 2455.0 2590.0

December, 1975 2290.0 2425.0 2300.0

March 1, 1976 1970.0 1970.0

February 8, 1977 1810.0 1810.0

(19-19-19) March, 1975 3100.0

July, 1975 2950.0

.December, 1975 2570.0

March 16, 1976 2200.0

February o, 1977 2020.0

(22-22-11) April, 1975 3125.0

July, 1975 2975.0

Deceuber, 1975 2650.0

February 8, 1977 2100.0

A. 103Table 5.11 (Cont'd.)

p.5

Indigenouslrfed Piol vrliFert11zvrs Fertilizers

Product/ Effective Pool Issuc RetaLl Retail

Crade from Price Prica Price Remarks

(14-28-14) April, 1968 970.0 1060.0

March, 1969 1047.0 1137.0

March, 1972 1030.0 1170.0

June, 1972 1215.0

October, 1973 1470.0 1560.0 1430.0

June, 1974 2170.0 2260.0

October, 1974 2850.0

April,, 1975 3400.0

July, 1975 2140.0 2260.0

December, 1975 2020.0

February 8, 1977 1855.0 2660.0

(1 -26-26) September 7, 1970 1025.0

MarcbD 1972 1060.0 1161.0

June, 1974 2145.0 2245.0

November, 1974 - - 3060.0

July, 1975 2125.0 2245.0 2700.0

December, 1975 2202.0 - -

March, 1976 2200.0

September, 1977 1890.0

(12-32-16) September 26, 1970 1045.0

March 17, 1972 1074.0 1177.0

June, 1974 2315.0 2415.0

November, 1974 3700.0

July, 1975 2285.0 2415.0 3000.0

December, 1975 2350.0

March, 1976 2470.0

September 8, 1977' 2090.0

(14-36-12) Septemiber, 1970 1135.0

march, 1972 1161.0 1271.0

June, 1974 2505.0 2605.0

July, 1975 2470.0. 2605.0

December, 1975 2535.0

* Prices prevailing after March, 1969 include an excise duty of 10%

upto March 1971, and that of 15Z thereafter. However, the prices of NP and

NPK fertilizers prevailing after Marrh 15, 1976 are adjusted for a subsidy of

Rs.1250.0 per ton of P2 05, wlhtch was introduced on March 16, 1976.

Prices of imoorted fertilizers include, besides excise duty. 2-1/22

regulatory duty between December 16, 1971 and March 1, 1973 and 5Z auxiliary

duty thereafter.

** Retail prices of indit:cnous fertilizers are those of ammonium phosphate

sulphate of the similar grade.

Prices of ammonium nitrophosphate for the imported fertilizers.

( ) Pool prices of food Corporation of India effective froa December 22, 1969.

Pool isssue price as ititermediate for complex fertilizer and mixture

manufacturers.

A. 104

Table 5.12

India:-- . mut,icntiwise fe ilser prices-(inclusive of excise duty but rxclusire of CST and local taxes)

Nutrient (Rs./kg)Fertiliser _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

1.1.74 1.6.74 1.1.75 1.7.75 1.12.75 16.3.76|20.4.76

1. STRAUGIIT FERTILISERSA. Nitrogenous 'N'

Ammonium sulphate (20.6?,% N) 2.91 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.54Urca 46f', N ('( k,, packing) 2.28. 4.35 4.35 4.02 4.02 3.80 3.80Calcium ammonium nitrite 25°o N 2.46 4.38 4.38 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06Calcium ammoniu;n nitratc 261'o N 2.48 4.40 4.40 4.08 4.08 4.03 4.08B. Pho!phatic P,20,'

"Sin-': su!'erphosphate 16% P1O0 3.48 5.67 6.25 5.99 *5.29 3.95t 3.16+*Triple superphosphate 45% P.0, 2.71 5.87 5.87 6.47 - - -Triple supcrphosphate (Imported) - - - 5.89 4.08 4.03 4.08

C. Potassic 'K,O'Mturiate of potash 60%,1 K:O

(50 kg packing) 1.13 2.05 2.05 1.97 1.83 1.52 1.52II. CONIPLEX FLRTIUSERS 'P,O,' @A. Imported and indigenous1. DAP 184640 Imported 2.01 4.83 4.83 4.52 4.08 4.17 3.32Indigenous 2.16 4.83 4.83 4.52 4.52 3.12 3.122. Anmm. phosphatc suiphalte 20-20-0

lmportcd 3.72 4.93 4.93 4.S8 4.2S 4.50 4.50Indigenous 4.72 7.15 7.15 9.23 8.23 6.95 6.953. NP, \PK complex 24-24-0

Imported - - - 8.81 7.02 5.76 5.66Indig;enous - - - 8.48 7.23 5.66 5.66

4. NP/NPK complcx 17-17-17Imported - - - 9.24 8.41 7.18 6.27Indigenous 4.00 8.34 8.34 9.45 7.68 6.27 6.27

5. NP,NPK conmplex 15-15-15Impgeorue 5.76 4.93 4.93 5.34 5.12 6.65 5.15Indigenous 4.72 6.07 6.07 6.04 5.92 5.15 5.15

6. NP,NPK complex 14-28-14Imported 3.87 4.87 4.87 5.08 4.29 4.55 4.55Indigenous 3.40 6.98 6.98 - - 7.77 7.77

B. Imported1. Miono amm. phosphate 31.55.0 1.95 4.84 4.84 4.53 40 .2 413 NP/.N to. plo. 26.34.0 - 4.92 4.92 5.00 4.28 4.69 4.693. NPNKCmlx 3-00- - - 8.33 6.98 7.19 7.194. ' '~ 12_-4-12 3.90 4.90 4.90 5.11 4.26 4.53 4.536. 14-36312 2.27 4.86 4.86 5.02 4.S7 5.06 5.066. Indgeou 2.3-23.0 - 4.87 4.87 4.83 4.28 4.50 4.50C. ItndigaenousI.Amin. pnos. sul. 16-20.0 4.45 7.02 7.02 8.93 7.93 6.61 65.612. NP,-PK complex 2222.31 -4 - - 8.53 7.11 5.76 5.76

3. 14-35.14 2.90 5.58 5.58 6.68 6.03 4.60 4.604. ~' ' 19_19.19 - - - 9.53 7.6S 6.2h 6.26S. 19.5.19.5-0 - - 7.26 7 23 5.S9 5. q$96. " " 28-28-0 3.05 5.83 5.83 7.33 6.80 5.49 5.49

* Indiscnously manufactured.w. c. f. hMarch 17, 1976.w. e. f. October 18, 1976.

coN aput K,O values through urea and MOP respectively have bccn takcn into account toCOMPutc P&O, valIues in Nli'/NPK [crtiliscrs.

A.105

Table 5.13

India - Superphosphate Prices

Fertiliser Effective from Retail price( 50 kg packing)

1. SuperphosphatilC March 12, 1960 177.16

(161 v.s. P205) May 11, 1961 182.40

(100 kg packing) June 2, 1962 188.20

June 27, 1962 193.50

November 28, 1964 202.64

June 26, 1965 210.88

March 15, 1966 212.04

May 10, 1966 212.90

August 16, 1966 260.88

October 1, 1966 249.39

Effective from

Year January 1 April 1 July 1 October 1

1967 272.95 300.95 294.54 311.70

1968 311.70 311.70 301.70 312.00

1969 299.78 299.78 299.78 281.67

1970 281.67 274.40 280.47 319.46

1971 319.46 301.79 291.18 291.18

1972 291.18 291.18 301.85. 301.85

1973 302.00 302.00 316.00 353.00

January 1, 1974 385.00

February 1, 1974 570.00

March 7, 1974 627.00

June 1, 1974 690.00

September 1, 1974 747.00

January 1, 1975 769.00

April 1, 1975 779.00

July 15, 1975 735.00

October 1, 1975 683.00

March 17, 1976 483.00±

April 9, 1976 432.00±

October 18-, 1976 344.00±

December, 1977 361.00

2. Pelofos February 5, 1974 540.00.(182 total P 205)

June 19, 1974 636.00

August 1974 825.00

July, 1975 730.00f

A.106

Table 5.13 (Cont'd)p.2

Retail PriceFertilizer Effective from (S0 kg pakcing)

3. Superphosphate August 1963 207.50C

(18: v.s. P205) August 1966 312.01c

January 1967 326.71b(for 50 kg bags)

4. Triple superphos- March 1968 875.00pate a(42.5 w.s P205) e March 1971 1,106.50

2 5 ~~~~~~~(for 50 kg bags)

April 1, 1972 1,152.25a

July 23, 1973 1,271.90a

September 1974 2,600.15a

5. Triple superphos- July 1975 2,710.00aphate aphate.sP2 December 1, 1975 1, 875.00

February, 1977 1,575.00

a Includes the incidence of excise duty (10%) brought into force fromMarch 1, 1969 aud another 5% from March 17, 1972.

b Ex-factory price.

c Ex-works price for 'port' factories only (within 161 km of a port).Excludes excise duty (15%), which has been reduced to 7.5% w.e.f. 1-12-1975.

d Rs. 5.00 per tonne should be added which was allowed extra for packingsuperphosphate in 50 kg bags till 9th May 1966 and thereafter, Rs. 12.00per tonne.

e F.O.R. Ambarnath.

f Ex-factory price inclusive of central sales tax

t After deducting the incidence of subsidy which is Rs. 1,250/- tonne of P 0in force from 16-3-1976. 2 5

Note: 1. Ex-.works prices for 'port' factories served by Calcutta port (within161 km of the port) were in operation from August 16, 1966 to March 31, 1971on account of special problems at the port.

2. All retail prices listed above are Rs. per tonne gross upto30th April 1975 and on net basis, with effect from 1st May, 1975.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77.

A. 107

Table 5.14

India: Potassic Fertilizers Prices

(Rs. per ton)

Maximum price(100kg packing)

Fertiliser Effective fromPool issue Retailprice

1. Muriate of potash (61% K20)e October, 1967 405.00 440.00

April, 1968 445.00 480.00

March, 1969 483.00a 523.00a

(487 .00)d

March 17, 1972 493.00d 54:3.00d

October, 1973 620.00 670.00(705.00]

June, 1974 1 ,17 0.00 dc 1,220.00c

July, 1975 1,090.00 1 ,170 .00 d c

December, 1975 1,00 5 .00 dc 1,085 .00d c

March 16, 1976 910.00

February, 1977 805.00

2. Muriate of potashec

60% K20 50% K20

Ex- Ex-godown Ex-jetty godown Ex-jettyat port at port

January/March 1960 328.73 - - -

April 1960 319.87

July 1960 313.96

May, 1961 295.28

April, 1963 285.28 273.46 237.73 227.88

September, 1963 230.73 220.88

February, 1965 299.00 290.00 244.00 235.00

April, 1966 314.00 305.00 259.00 250.00

April, 1967 392.00 383.00 324.00 315.00

December, 1967 412.00 403.00 339.00 330.00

May, 1968 439.50 430.50 367.00 358.00

June,-1969 478.00 469.00 398.00 389.00a

December, 1969 - 48 3.00a b - 40 3.00a b

January, 1971 - 473 .00a b - 3 93 00a b

A.108

Table 5.14 (Cont'd.)

p.2

Fcstilizer Effective from Pool issueprice Retail

3. Sulphate of potash C(48Z K20) June, 1966 3 77.85b

April, 1967 56 3.84September, 1966 390.00 445.00

May, 1967 585.00 655.00(592.00)

March 1, 1971 66 1.00a 731.00a

(668.00)

March 17, 1972 730.00d 800.00d

June, 1974 1,495.00c d 1,565.00 tJuly, 1975 1,415.00 1,510.00c d

December 1, 1975 1,4 00.0 0c dFebruary 8, 1977 1,295.00

( ) Pool prices of Food Corporation of India Effective from December 22, 1969.] Pool issue price as intermediate for complex fertiliser and mixture manufacturers.a These prices include the incidence of excise duty (10) on fertilisers brought into

force from March 1, 1969.b F.O.R. despatching station/port of import, freight prepaid to destination station.c Distributed by M/s Indian Potash Ltd., Madras.d These prices include, besides the incidence of excise duty at 15% regulatory duty

at 2 1/2Z brought into force from December 16, 1971. The latter is replaced by 5%auxiliary duty with effect from March 1, 1973.

e For 50 kg packing, Rs. 10 per ton extra w.e.f. October 11, 1973 as against Rs. 11prescribed upto October 10, 1973.

Note:- All prices listed above are Rs. per tonne gross upto 30th April 1975 and on netbasis with effect from 1st May 1975.

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77.

India: PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALSa. The baslc celling solling prices for naphtha and furnace oll ex-companies, storaga points otc.

(for fertillser Industry)(Rs.)

Productjeitective irom | Unit Kandla Okha Bombay| Goa Cochin Madras Vizag 1Calcutta| Innreacs

1. Naphtha MTBefore June 1, 1970 90.40 90.05 89.65 87.45 88.46 105.82 95.97 104.70

June 1, 1970 114.90 114.55 114.15 111.95 112.96 130.32 120.47 129.20 + 24.50May 28, 1971 144.88 144.53 144.13 141.93 142.94 160.30 150.45 159.18 + 29.98June 11, 1973 193.00 192.65 192.25 190.05 191.06 208.42 198.57 207.30 + 48.12September 1, 1973 253.00 252.65 252.25 250.05 251.06 268.42 258.57 267.30 + 60.00June 1, 1974 487.05 486.70 486.31 484.10 485.11 502.48 429.63 501.36 +234.08

September 1, 1975@2. Furnace oil (inclusive of dutles)

(a) Ex-stcragr points KLMay 2., 1971 233.73 233.40 232.78 231.19 232.06 247.50 239.11 246.53June 11, 1973 249.65 249.32 248.71 247.98 247.98 263.43 255.04 262.46 + 15.93March 2, 1974 605.07 604.73 604.12 602.52 603.39 618.84 610.45 617.67 +355.41September 8, 1974t 655.07 654.73 654.12 652.52 653.39 668.84 660.45 667.87 + 50.00

(b) Ex-points(within fiee delivery zone) KL

May 28, 1971 243.73 243.40 242.78 241.19 242.06 257.50 249.11 256.53June 11, 1973 255.90 255.57 254.96 253.36 ' 254.23 269.68 261.29 268.71 + 12.18March 2, 1974 611.32 610.9a 610.37 608.77 609.64 625.09 616.70 624.12 +355.41

September 18, 1974t 661.32 660.98 660.37 658.77 . 659.64 675.09 666.70 674.12 + 50.00

v P;Ice of naptha went up by Rs. 110.00 per tonne w.e.;. 1975.

t Increase is duo to Pool adjustment charges and not due to the increase in excise duty which is at Rs. 90.00 per kiloillre.

Note: 1. The price of naplhtha is exclusive of basic excise duty which is Rs. 6.00 tonne for the fertiliser industry.2. Excise duty on furnace oil when used for fertiliser manufacture, was withdrawn with effect from September 25. 1972. Its

incidence was Rs. 113.00 per tonne.3. Price of fuel oil went up by Rs. 80.00 per kllolitro with effect from July 14, 1975 and another Rs. 120.00 per kllolitre with effect

from December 1, 1975.

A.110

Table 5.15 (Continued)

India - PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALS (Continued)b. Rockphosphate and Sulphur

Price (Rs.Itonne)Raw material/eflective during the period

C.l.F. | Ex-jettys b

1. IMPORTED ROCIKPHOSPHATE

1. Florida (75/77% BPL) (172) (224)(151) (-)

Jan./March 73 -April/June 73 236July/Dec. 73 - -

2. Florida (70172% BPL) (139) (200)Jan./Dec. 73 - -

S. Jordan (70,72°; BPL) (155) (250)(139) (200)

Jan./March 73 155 219April/June 73 185 263July/Sept. 73 211 291Oct./Dec. 73 235 318Jan.!June 7i* 525 669July 74/Mar. 750 630 800April/June 750 600 785July/Sept. 750 560 740Oct./Dec. 75 570 145Jan./Mar. 76* 540 705April/Sept. 76* 440t sootOct./Dec. 76* 410t 463tJan./March 77' 376t 433tApril/Dec. 77* 359t 415t

4. Jordan (73;75%O BPL)Jan./June 740 534July/Dec. 740 639Jan. 75:March 76

April/Dec. 76* 420tJan./Mar. 77* 405t

L. Jordan (75177% BPL) (-) C-)(142) (-;

Jan./March 73 162April/June 73July/Dec. 73 216

A. 111

Table 5.15 (Continued)

India - PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALS (Continued)

b. Rockphosphate and Sulphur (Continued)

Price (Rs./tonne)Raw material/effective during the period

C.I.F. Ex-jetty'b

1. IMPORTED ROCKPHOSPHATE (Concluded)

O. Morocco rock (70/72% BPL)July/Sept. 73 211 291

Oct./Dec. 73 235 318

Jan./Mar. 74 -

April/June 74 689

July/Dec. 74 630 8.0

Jan./Mar. 76 005

7. Morocco (75/770%O BPL) (172) 224(167) (-

Jan./Mar. 73 202

April/June 73 230

July/Sept. 73 309 _

Oct./Dec. 73 325 426

April/June 74 686

July/Sept. 74 705

Oct. Dec. 74 90S

Jan./Mar. 75 881

April/Sept. 75 796

Oct./Dec. 75 810

Jan./Mar. 76 733

April/Sept. 76 524t

April/June 77 509t

8 Senegal (811833% BPL) (195) C-)(204) C-)

Jan./March 73 214

April/June 73

July/Sept. 73 319

Oct./Dec. 73 325

Jan./March 76 586

9. Tunisia (65/68% BPL) (149) (198)10. U.A.R. (64/66%; BPL) (123.56) (152.60)

A. 112

Table 5.15 (Continued)

lndia _ PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALS (Continued)b. Rockphosphate and Sulphur (Continued)

Price (Rs.ltonne)F.O.R. despatching station

Effective from i Remarks

I Chips | -60 Mesh

II. INDIGENOUS ROCKPHOSPHATE1. Udaipur Rockphosphate'April 1, 1969 120 132January 1 1971 150 162November l6 1973 180 192January 1 i9 /4 180 195January 24 974 300 320March X, 400 420April l, .9W4 550 570April 5, 1975 525'July 26, 1975 450' Freight rebate Rs. 25.001tonne for distances

beyond 1000 km.December 2, 1975 4254 -do-

January 5, 1976 4004 Freight rebate Rs. 40.00/tonne for distancesbeyond 1000 km.fFreight rebate Rs. 15.00/tonne for distances

A beyond 1500 km.April 1, 1976 3004 1

I Also, sea-freight concession Rs. 30.001Ltonne.

Price (Rs.ltonne) F.O.R.E despatching station (W' chips)

Effective from .Remarks|-Grade-I Grade-Il Grade-IlIl

'Z. Jhabua RockphosphatelAugust 15, 1975 435-400 390-325 Upto 250 Freight discount for grades I & 11

Rs. 20.00jtonne for distances beyond1000 km.

January 19, 1976 385-350 330-275 Upto 250 Freight discount for all grades Rs. 20.001tonne for distances beyond 500 km.

April 20, 1976 285-250 210-175 Upto 150 Freight discount for all grades Rs. 20.00itonne for distances beyond 500 km. andRs. 10.00jtonne for distances below 500 km.

Price (Rs./tonne)

-Effective during the period Remarks

Shipload Ex-jetty" Ex-godowIn

III. SULPHUR IMPORTEDApril/June 1970 275.40 325.00 - If more than 1,000 tonnes

340.00 - If less than 1,000 tonnesJuly/Sept. 1970 280.00 340.00 -Oct. 1970'March 1971 272.50 325.00 -April/Sept. 1971 262.00 313.00 -Oct.jDec. 1971 300.00 352.00 370.00Jan./March 1972 302.00 361.00 381.00April/Dec. 1972 300.00 359.00 379 00Jan.lMarch 1973 300.00 340.00 360.00

A. 113

Table 5.15 (Continued)

Indta -PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALS (Concluded)b. Rockphosphate and Sulphur (Concluded)

Price (Rs./tonne)

Effective during the periodShipload Ex-Jetty j Ex-godown

111. SULPHUR (Concluded)April/June 1973 320.00 380.00 400.00

July,'Dec. 1973 336.50 386.00 406.00

Jan./March 1974For Fert. Industry 514.00 572.00 592.00

For non-Fert. Industry 528.C0 586.00 606.00

ApriljJune 1974For Fert Industry 676.00 742.00 762.00

For non-Fert. Industry 696.00 762.00 782.00

July!Sept. 1974For Fert. Industry 789.00 864.00 884.00

For non-Fert. Industry 812.00 887.00 907.00

Oct. 1974,March 1975For Fert. Industry 810.00 890.00 910.00

For non-Fert. Industry 840.00 915.00 935.00

April!Sept. 1975For Fert. Industry 679.00 753.00 773.00

For non-Fert. Industry 699.00 773.00 793.00

Oct./Dec. 1975For Fert. Industry 679.00 753.00 773.00

For non-Fert. Industry 740.00 815.00 835.00

Jan./March 1975For Fert. Industry 610.00 680.00 700.00

For nort-Fert. Industry 630.00 700.00 720.00

April 1976/June 1977For Fert. Industry 540.00 605.00 625.00

For non-Fert. Industry 555.00 620.00 640.00

July/Dec. 1977For Fert. Industry 520.00 585.00 605.00

For non-Fert. Industry 535.00 600.00 620.00

* Includes regulatory duty (2'10%) eftective from 16-12-71. This is replaced by 5°. auxiliary duty w.e.fMarch 1, 1973.

b Includes countervailing duty (only on ex-jetty prices of rockphosphate):-at 10% from 1.3.69 to 16.3.72.-at 15° from 17.3.72. This is withdrawn w.e.f. 16.3.1976.Excluding royalty which was Rs. 4.25 'tonne upto 25-7-75 and Rs. 5.00.tonne thereafter.

d' 25%/O of the price can be paid at the time of despatch and the balance witnin 60 days from the dateof despatch.

The following discounts are also available when purchased either F.O.R. despatching station orex-pithead:

(Rs./tonne)

Udaipur-rock Jhabua rock

(i) for 100% cash payment 10.00 10.00(ii) for run-of-mine material 10.25 10.00

t15% . imnport duty as well as 5% auxiliary duty have been withdrawn with effect from 16.3.1976.

*For Fertiliser Industry.

A.114

TABLE 5.16

India: The Break-up of the Maximum Retail Price of Urea

Items Rs. per ton

1. Ex-factory price 1158.0

2. Excise duty @ 15% ad valorem 174.0

3. Fertilizer Pool Equilization Charge 65.0

4. Equated freight 38.0

5. Dealer's margin 115.0

6. Total, i.e., the maximum retail price of urea 1550.0

Source:, The Marathe Committee Report, 1977.

A. 115

Table 5.17

India:: EX-FACTORY RETENTIGN PRICES(Rs.per ton)

~~~~~ - ~~~~~~~ ~~~~ ~CalciumAmmonium Ammonium

No. Name of the Unit Urea Sulphate Nitrate

1. Hindustan Steel Ltd., Rourkela. - 625.00 781.00

2. Bokaro Steel Plant - 625.00 -

3. Bhilai Steel Plant - 625.00 -

4. Durgapur Steel Plant - 625.00 -

5. Indian Iron and Steel Co. - 625.00 -

6. Tata Iron and Steel Co. - 625.00 -7. Madras Fertilizers Ltd. 1,206.00 - -

8. E.I.D. Parry Ltd. - 819.00 -

Fertilizer Corporation of India

9. Sindri 2,187.00 819.00 -10. Corakhpur 1,499.00 - -

11. Talcher 1,796.00 -

12. Ramagundam 1,829.00

National Fertilizers Limited

13. Nangal 1,693.00 - 849.00

14. Ehatinda 2,129.00 --

15. Panipat 2,111.00 -

Hindustan Fertilizer Corporation Limited

16. Namrup 1,231.00 819.0017. Durgapur 1,571.00 -18. Barauni 1,821.00 -

Rashtriva CheTmicals and Fertilizer Corv. Limited

19. Trombay 1,565.0020. Fertilizers and Chemicals

Travancore Ltd. 1,436.00 819.00

21. Indian Explosives Ltd. 1,262.00 -22. Shriram Chemicals 1,200.00 -23. Indian Farmers E'ertilizer

Co-operative Ltd. 948.00 -24. Southern Petro-chemicals

Industries Corpn. Ltd. 1,500.00 -25. Gujarat State Fertilizer

Company 1,006.00 819.00*656.00+

26. Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd. 1,168.00 -27. Mangalore Chemicals and

Fertilizers Ltd. , 1,253.00 -

28. Neyveli Lignite Corpn. Ltd. 2,261.00 -

* Produced from Caprolacth^ route.+ Produced from Gypsum route.

Source: Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, New Delhi.

A. 116

Table 6.1

India: Distribution Margins for Urea

______________________ per ton)

Existing Mtargin Margindistribution recommended recollimended

No. effective National C:ommiteefrom Commission o1-4-67 Agriculture

1. Comminion to dealer(i) Wholesaler 7.60 (l%1 8.40(1%) 8.79.(I%)

(ii) Retailer 19.00 (21%O) 21.00 (21%) 21.97 (2j-%)

2. Incentive commrnission (to be funded) 2.00 4.00' 2 00S. Administrative charges 1.00 1.00 -

4. Transport charges :- }(i Rlv. to wholesale godown ) 2.00

Cat) Wholesle godown to retail) 15.00 9.20godown ) 8.00

5. Loading & Unloading(i) Wholesaler 2.50) 8.00 7.00

(ii) Retailer 2.50)6. Codown rent for wlholesaler and

retailer rt Rs. 0.80 per tonne 4.80 9.00 6.00per month for six months

7. Shortage for wholesaler and 3.80 (a) 4.20) (I per 3.79retailer (i per centl (b) 4.20) cent) (I per cent)

(Cooperative)8. Interest charges 20.30 42.00 29.30

(4 months (6 months (4 months@ 8%°) @10%) @10%)

9. Supervision, publicity etc. 6.50 5.60 -

80.00 122.40 93.05'

Ri. 2.00 for coortatives ror promotion and Rs. 2.00 to be funded.On the baiws of Rs. 840 per tontie of urea.

1 The Qtsaraishi Comrmittee recomtnended a round figure of Rs. 95.00.

Source: A Study on Fertilizer Demand and Marketing, Vol.III- All India

Summary Report. The FAI, 1974, p.45.

A.117

Table 6.2

India: Break-up of margin recommended by the Qutaishi

Committee and current margin

(Rs. per tonne)

CalciumParticulars Urea Ammonium ammoniurn

sulphate nitrate

1. CommissionWholesaler at I per cent 8.79 4.94 5.10Retailer at 2i per cent 21.97 12.35 12.75Incentive commission 2.00 2.00 2.00

2. Administrative charges - - -3. Transport charges

Railway station to )wholesaler godown 9.20 9.20 9.20

Wholesaler godown Ito retailer )

4. Loading & unloadingWholesaler 3t 7.00 7.00 7.00

Retailer 5. Godown rent at Rs. I per 6.00 6.00 6.00

toone average for 6 months6. Shortage for wholesaler 8.79 4.94 5.10

and retailer at I per cent7. Intercsi: charges 29.30 16.47 17.00

(4 months on an average)10 per cent

8. Supervision and othermiscellaneous charges(publicity, etc.)

Total 93.05- 62.90 64.14or Rs. 95

B. Current margin 115.00 75.00 70.00

Source: Handbook on Fertilizer Marketing. The Fertilizer Association

of India, New Delhi, 1976, p.210.

Table 6.3

India: Estimated number of dealers - sonewise statewise - 1969-70

AWncyI CcwPeiaiiv. I fata ( .s.,I riia.)

Zholtw6l ReI ikt I Total Whubatlet Rctamkr l iyal | hololoog 11aaa | loul

CENTRAL 692 (23) 7465 (148) 8357 (171) "5 (6) 29U (121) 3075 (127) 723 (29j 126753367) 13462 (396)

MIadlya Poadvah 415 (8) 2854 (23) 3274 (31) - 235 (8) 235 (8) 415 (a) 3894 (3l) 3509 (39)Rajasldan 259(11) 2029 (35) 3088 (46) 80 (4) 499 (19) 585 (22) 345 (IS) 3321 (53) 367J (6N)Vtisa 1'tadel@ 15 (3) 1512 (70) 1527 (73) 9 (2) 2211 (92) 2220 (94) 24 (5) 5953 (!10) 5977 (265)Delli 3 (1) 265 (20) 2SC (21) - 35 (3) 35 (3) 3 (1) SW0 (23) 303 (24)

EAST 561 (23) 4724 (37) W2tS (60) 23 (47) 7167 (36) O7 (123) 3S6 (70) I 3I1 (323) 14337 (3#)Assat4 - - - - 396 (23) 396 (21) - 396 (21) 396 (I)Bib;", 195 (5) 3240 (17) 3435 (22k - 346 (5) 346 (5) 193 (5) 3586 (22) 3781 (27)Oti .. 252 (I1) 1191 (11) 1143 (22) 237 (7) 1247 (12) 1484 (19) 409 (18) 2130 (23) 2G27 (41)We sI l.4al 114 (7) 593 (9) 707 (16) 2298 (40) $178 (48) 7476 (88) 2412 (47) 5771 (57) 8133 (3154)

NORTH 233 (48) 7US (312) 7424 (360) 101 (2W) S0o (41) 00 (6) l j (5) 768 (353) 6027 (421)Ilaryasa 42 (8) 1774 (5l) 101C (I1) - 232 (7) 232 (7) 42 (a) 2006 (4sj) 2018 (60)llimach.al Iraslvdh 33 (4) 1091 (48) 1124 (52) - 95 (5) 95 (5) 53 (4) 1186 (5.i 1219 (571

Januiuu & Ki&.mir 55 (8) 961 (2C) 1016 154j _ 5- - 5 (1) 961 tG23) 3035 (343lu4ui. 3105 (28) 3S33 (185) W4A (213) 38S (27) 175 129) 276 (56) 214 (55) 56 (214) 3744(141)

SOUTH 372 (8) 7143(3) 7858 (316) 1M (62) 0314 (53) 1i00 (337) 3368 (134) !0702 (36) 174il(071)

Andhra Prademb 1o (s) 3050 (45) 1310 (s0) 3 87(25) 1871 (60) 2258 (85) 447 (30) 2923 (105) 3368 (133)Kerala - 120 (231) 1209 (31) 50(10) 1545 (40) I15. (50) 50 (10) 2754 (71) 2004 (81)Karnataka 244 135) !629 0) 3873 (3I5) It 1 33) 1356 (85) I154 (138) 442 (L8O 49335 (23) 5427 (253),Tamil Nadu 6t8 (2) I598 (52) ICG6 (64) 162 (14) 4444 (120) 46( 1334) 230 (26) 6042 (17i) 6272 (391)

WEST 333 (44) 5211 (1S2) 5722 (236) I 57 (133 2699 (135) 231.4 (113) 668 (57j 7910 (297) 6378 (JS4)Gujarat 110 (33) 2577 (89) 2687(100) 45 (1) 630 (27n 675 (34) 355 (38) 3207 (116) 3362 (134)Kaharashtra* 401 (33) 2G34 (103) 3035 (136) 112 (ti) 20c9 (78) 2181 (84) 5135 (39) 4703 (1811 5216 (220)

Grand Total 2371 (1930 32075 (947) 34446 (13S7) 3687 (173) 22562 (658) 26240 ,8331 6058 (365) SsflG7 (1703) 62925 (2368)

@ Besides cooperative and private retailers in Uttar Pradesh, it is estimated that therewere 2230 (98) Government retailera.

* Maharashtra figure includes 197 (estimated) dealers of Goa.Note; 1. Figures in brackets denote number of dealers canvassed (i.e. sample size)

2. (-) meanp not covered in the sample.3. The above estimates do not include dealers located at urban centres.4. These estimates are based on the data collected during the year 1969-70.

Source: A Study on Fertilizer Demand and Karketing, Vol.111 - All India Summary ReportThe FAI, New Delhi, 1974.

A. 119

Table 6.4

India: Cooperative and. Private Distributors, 1969-70(Percentage)

*hulaalersak RetailersZoneljState _

Cooperative Private Cooperative Private

CENTRAL 88 12 59 41

Matniya Prrachsh 100 - 92 3

Rajastitan 73 25 C8 1;

Uttar Pradesh 63 37 26 370Delli 100 - 88 12

EAST 18 82 40 60

Assam - too

Bihar 100 - 90 1U

Orissa 52 48 42 58West Bengal 5 95 10 90

NORTH 70 30 93 7

Haryana 100 - 88 12

Hinmachal Prmdeshi 100 - 92 .8Jammu &- Kashmir 100 - 100 -

Punjab 50 50 95 5

SOUTH 32 68 45 55

Andhlra Pradesh 13 87 36 64

Kerala - 100 44 SG

Kzarnataka 55 45 73 27

Tamil Nadu 30 70 26 74

WEST 76 24 66 34

CGiijat 71 29 80 20

Mah&Iarail,,ar 73 22 56 44

G.RAND TOTAL 39 61 K6 4+

Represents Government retail outlets.

Source: A Study on Fertilizer Demand and Marketing.

A.120

Table 6.5

India: Number of Sale Points, 1969 to-1977

Date Cooperative Private Total

April 1, 1967 48,031 NA NA

April , 1968 41,052 NA NA

April 1, 1969 36,505 30,066 66,571

April, 1970 33,418 38,234 71,652

April 1, 1971 30,670 50,790 81,460

April 1, 1972

April, 1973 39,266 47,120 86,395

February 1, 1974 37,911* 56,172 94,295

February 1, 1975 39,156* 59,473 98,629

February 1, 1976 39,950* 55,073 94,623

May.l, 1977 33,404* 49,916 96,220

* includes other institutional agencies.

** Since some states have governmental depots, along with cooperativesand private distributors, figures in the last column are not equal

to the sum of the figures in the second and third columns.

Sources: Fertilizer Statistics, 1971-72 to 1976-77.

A. 121

Table 6.6

India: Statewise Distribution of Sale Points, 1976-1977

As on 1-2-1976 I As on 1-5-1977

Zone/State Coop. L Coop. &osther PrivatePrTotal Tttelotitutihr el institutional! Privata Total

agencies agencies

Ccntral

Madhya Pradesh 2,699 2,477 5,176 3,580 1,514 5,094

Rajasthan 1,553 845 2,398 1,553 945 2,498

Utttar Pradesh 6,380 6,500 12,350 6,999 6,979 13,978Delhi N.A. N.A. N.A. 30 45 75

East

Assam 45 538* 583' 146 695 841

Blhar 277 3,595 3,872 277 3,595 3,872

Manipur 49 90 139 49 115 164Meghalaya 15 324 339 15 131 1,246Nagaland 10' - 100 12 - 12

Orsea 2,160 a"0 2,5C4 2,197 2,457 4,654

Tripura 251- - 2510 252 23 275

West Bengal 791 15,209 .16,000 .1,549 14,451 16,000

North

Haryana 699 477 1,176 615 576 1,191

Himachal Pradesh 1,440 235 1,675 1,357 182 1,539Jammu & Kashmir 1,487 - 1,487 N.A. N.A. 1,042

Punjab 3,408 960 4,388 816 1,766 2,382

South

Andhra Pradesh 1,411 6,272 7,683 1,336 6,871 8,207

Karnataka 3,053 2,619 5,672 3,138 3,172 6,310Kerala 3,224 2,879 6,103 3,224 2,804 6,028

Tamil Nadu 3,990 8,114 12,104 N.A. N.A. 12,048

Pondicherry N.A. N.A. N.A. 52 125 177

West

Gujarat 5,105 1,863 6,968 4,964 1,746 6,440

Maharashtra 1,503 1,682 3,185 1,513 1,734 3,247

Goa N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

All Indla 39,950 55,073 94,623 33,404 49,916 96,220

* As on April 1, 1975

N.A.: Not available

Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77.

A. 122

Table 6.7

India: Achievements in IFPC Districts*

Campaign districts All India

o a Increase over previous Con- Increase over previousu 0 corresponding season sumption corresponding season

Season ('000a~ 0 Absolute tons) Absoluteo _ ('000 tons) per cent ('000 tons) per cent

Kharif 1976 161 34 26.5 1,188 181 18.0

Rabi 1976-77 414 115 38.3 2,225 336 17.8

Kharif 1977 217 49 29.6 1,552 324 30.6

* Intensive Fertilizer Campaign Districts

Source: Fertilizer News, 1978, p.30

A. 123

Table 6.8

India: Share of Transportation Cost in Distribution Costs

Rs. per tonRs.

1. Average railway freight 62.72

2. Marketing Cost 32.00

3. Distribution Margin:Transportation 9.0

Non-Transportation 106.0

4. Total Distribution Cost 209.72

5. Total Transportation Cost 71.72

6. Share of Transportation Costin Distribution Costs (%) 34.0

Source: RITES Study.

A.124

Table 6.9

India: Transport of Fertilizer Products by RailT-ays, 1973-74

Year Million Tons

1973-74 5.31974-75 5.91975-76 7.11978-79* 13.01983-84* 23.01988-89* 33.0

* Anticipated.

Source: The RITES Study.

1t 1~. .... . .... ., ;. .. ,,,,,. . ,. .... . ...... . . . . .. . . ... 1. .. . .

CY% I.... .II .I II A-o

s:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1I

U)<

a~ ~~ .

;0 a"b NWU *r-{q°J SO,enjwi.a l gF t

| ~ ~ ~ ~ . P. t 0 Mn I i _10 i r

_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 99 99 9 9 99_99 S^4;_ * 999 999 99 *9 99 9 s oP Pe o *..* or o 9. e 9

~~ NC 4 P.C 0.4Cr 00 P.4 ~ 0 0 ft-. ~o. _ - eo4ql N. 9 N

.4 %C.4.PP90 - .eIC *9 9 {@ 999 9 oo 999N 90 P199 99 _ o o _0 $

51.~~~~~~. N% 00, P.. 0 .P OW N nor oo|o i s -reo0rsr

.fl %P.' ttfI -I.I 0I.*.A P. C; C

C; 44 C . .4 . P.91:

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a- * * * * *,§§ |@||.,@@§* ,,|§ 4&@@* . *Z * C .4

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i,, ir s f ei I ISe S I S l l S I l I S . S S S S I S S S

6: L . .. . .... 55,. . *. .less.

65565 65I5. , , I' I "'1' '1 ' '''S (V 1' C, 'S 1' 515 ' ' I '

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A.131

S.Iz. P I a a t a 1CLI-O00 to w .5o. P a eP t Poinat_

(Pt (P) !:I

35. C? - COIMATOHE TA!!TL NADU 52. Hz - D£EARt PA.'A:RTIA,COIKBATOIZ 2.6 Fit I f?A p.jARK 2. IL

36. Pr CUDDALORE TAMIL NADU VIRTA CIST o.1CUDDALORE 2.6 - OUJAHA-

37. Ce AVADI TAMIL SADU 6A3A_UR oCL'DCALOIZ 6.3 - NADRYI,

38. CX)L- IsMoEr IAKIL AADU-SANJAVUR 2.8 53. RC K CHTI 11 JASrMAX

39. IID - ZAE?P?t TAMIL MADC JAIPUR .3PARR! KA?PADI 3.2 - 3A rA UJ

CUDDALOUK O. _ 8UR PA o 6&NUNJAA 0.

ho. crc - DILAGULA SARSAIA1A HARYANAANAIDA 1.6 - B1SSAR - .

OUSOAOSI 1.1*I. AP - TADIPALLZ AYD0RA PRADPSH

CUDDAPAS 0.6 - PANJABcUNTUR 3.5 - SAr.OAU1 1..7SK I') * 1.'6

*2. IC? - YAULAALI AN.H..... PRAD KOTIAPUrA II.tIXra.ASAC 2.7 3 S4. PAUSIAK-IARUIDA 0UjAPIT

L3. KIC - NIDADAVOL AEDSBA PPADSSR 3A2O A 'TADEPAL I CUDAM 0.t - 'A ASTIAo-GUms 2.5 0

hA. AS - TABUrU ASDSPA pw4mss 59. ASP 2 B_AYMAGAI GUJAPA?CUStUR 2.2 - DMASA 2.1

As. VIC - LOXI HASAPAS1.TRA j6. AC - AHNIDABAD eUJARAsKALBHOM SFOLAPUR 1.5 - I9J3AIA 0.1 -

AFDRRA PRADZ5ttUIA.SABAD 1.5 - 57. DCX CHEtICALS UTTAR PRA0ESI

b6. VCI - OWMBAT HARSASHTSA DMLBI KNURJA S.0?PQoJA! 0.2 - NAAT ClIT i

MARVA WAh1. DWI - HONA! MADRf A PIIADIIS ROrTAK o .k

IUAAU! 0.1 -

GUARAT 58t eC - KACARVARA UrTAl PRAHDOSAAIPUS 4.0 -

o59. oCr - OUOKELA ODISSAhi. MAIDC- PAKIVL "ADIT- PADrs SAMBALPU -1

CUSARAS' 60. AIC - CUAgDIAPUI ASSAMSADARKATr 0.9 - DS8llUO LAaMPUR 0.2*A..AMA ~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~DISRUOASB 1.9

*g. DIICC - AMUKBMA!I NA SARASN 1 61. PIOSPIATSC OMPAN ST' BE32AL

MAIIAAD 1v3 RIBRsA ;I.. _REnpJALCAOS 3.7 IUIDVAD 1.T

ADTAY PRAQrSB 62. JCP - AaDAE MD? IKEgALITARSr 1.0 0.3 ratSIINA *ACAI -

'A ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 08CITY.A'Zj~~~~~~~? 0.8 T~~~~~~~ARIZSIVAS 3.1

JUMAGAME 8.2 -

S0. ACT - UDYSA AVMHYA PRAD6_SRATLAM - 63. B52P - 8r3DR 9iANr -

51: DCCC - KVUAR MAT1 PRADESHKRANDWA 3.1 _ VEST BENDALIARSA 0.7 -VEST B____

UT-AN PIACESH ADIA O. -UNPUB 2.2 _

*PSLOPOS

Source: RITES Study, Annexure XIV-A.

Annex B

Ref erenc es

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