Cairo University

Faculty of Economics and Political Science

Statistics Department

English Section

Fourth Year

 

    

 

 

 

  

: Abeer Adel Attia Alaa Magdy Ali Amany Kamal El- Din

:       Dr/ Ramadan Hamed

 

          

First of all we wish to thank God

We wish also to express our sincere appreciation

And gratitude to:     

 

 

 

 

 

For their time, effort, advice, and continuous guidance throughout the study.

Last but not least, thanks are extended to our

Family and our close friends.

Dr.Ramadan Hamed Dr.Fatma El Zanaty

Dr.Dina Magdy Mrs.Sara Osama

1

Contents Pages

Chapter one: Historical View on the Crisis 5

1. Introduction 6

2. Literature Review 6

3. Importance and Objective of the Study 7

4. Relations between Egypt and Nile Basin Countries 8

(1.4.1) The Dimension of Water 9

(1.4.2) The Economic Dimension 12

(1.4.3) The Political Dimension 15

(1.4.4) The Cultural Dimension 17

Chapter Two: Methodology 18

1. Methodological Procedures 19

(2.1.1) Target Population 19

(2.1.2) Sample Design 19

(2.1.3)Suggested Sample Technique 20

(2.1.4)Sample Size 21

2. Questionnaire Design 23

3. Pre-Test 25

4. Data Collection 25

5. Editing and Coding 26

6. Data Analysis 26

Chapter Three: Background Characteristics and Knowledge of

Water Crisis

27

1. Background characteristics of the respondents 28

List of

Contents

2

2. Knowledge of Youth about the water problem between Egypt and Nile Basin countries

29

3. Knowledge of treaties that were signed between Egypt and Nile Basin countries

31

4. Knowledge of Youth about water situation in Egypt 34

5. Views to Solve Water Crisis 35

(3.5.1)The Political Dimension 35

(3.5.2)The Economic Dimension 36

(3.5.3)The Social Dimension 37

Chapter Four: Determinants of Knowledge of Water Crisis 38

1. Constructing “Knowledge of Youth “ index 39

2. Knowledge of Youth and background characteristics 42

3. Knowledge of Youth and exposure to Media 45

4. The internal water crisis in Egypt 45

5. Attitudes towards solving the water crisis 46

(4.5.1)Political Dimension 46

(4.5.2)Economic Dimension 47

(4.5.3)Social Dimension 48

Chapter Five: Logistic Model 49

1. Multicollinearity Test 50

2. Knowledge of Youth Model 51

Chapter Six: Conclusion and Recommendations 54

1.Conclusion 55

2.Recommendations 56

List of References 59

Appendices 61

3

List of Tables Pages Table1:Trade exchange between Egypt and Nile Basin countries 13

Table 2.1:The number of students in each faculty according to

gender from the population 22

Table 2.2: The sample that taken from each faculty according to

gender 22

Table 2.3: Weights according to gender

23

Table 3.1: Having information according to (faculty and gender)

29

Table 3.2: Source of knowledge according to (faculty and gender) 30

Table 3.3: Treaties that were signed between Egypt and Nile Basin

countries 32

Table 3.4: Sectors that consume water

34

Table 3.5: Political view on the crisis

35

Table 3.6: Economic view on the crisis

36

Table 4.1: Data preparation for constructing the index

39

Table 4.2: Descriptive Measures for the Index (Knowledge of

Youth) 41

Table 4.3: Knowledge of Youth regarding the most consuming

sector for water 46

Table4. 4: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and military

intervention 46

Table4. 5: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and investment in

the Basin countries 47

Table 4.6: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and their opinion

on social relations 48

Table 5.1: Eigen values for testing multicollinearity 50

Table 5.2: Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients 51

Table 5.3: Classification Table 52

Table 5.4: Variables in the Equation 52

4

List of Figures Pages

Figure 3.1: Percent distribution of respondents’ age according to

their sex 28

Figure 3.2: Percent distribution of respondents’ by place of

residence according to their sex 28

Figure 3.3: Percent distribution of respondents’ sections in Faculty

of Economics and Political Science 28

Figure 3.4: Percent distribution of respondents’ departments in

both faculties 29

Figure 3.5: Percent distribution about the sufficiency of

information sources 30

Figure 3.6: Percent distribution for the number of Nile Basin

states 31

Figure 3.7: Percent distribution of “is Egypt mouth or source

country?” 31

Figure 3.8: Student’s perception on the state that tries to decrease

Egypt’s quota 33

Figure 3.9: Percent distribution for the supportive state

33

Figure 3.10: Social view on the crisis

37

Figure 4.1: Box Plot for Knowledge of Youth 41

Figure 4.2: Normal Q-Q Plot of Knowledge of Youth 42

Figure 4.3: Knowledge of Youth according to gender 42

Figure 4.4: Knowledge of Youth according to place of residence 43

Figure 4.5: Knowledge of Youth according to faculty

43

Figure 4.6: Knowledge of Youth according to gender controlling

faculty 44

Figure 4.7: Knowledge of Youth according to year of study

44

Figure 4.8: Knowledge of Youth according to source of information

45

5

This chapter will introduce the following topics and will be visualized

as follows :

Chapter 1

Introduction

literature

Review

Importance and

objective of the

Study

Relations

between Nile

Basin countries

The

Dimension of

water

The Economic

Dimension

The Political

Dimension

The Social

Dimension

Chapter One

{Historical View on the Crisis}

6

Egypt and Nile Basin countries

Water crisis between Egypt and Nile Basin Countries will be discussed through

four dimensions (Water dimension, Economic dimension, Political dimension, and

Social dimension).

I. Introduction

Ten African countries participate in the Nile Basin (Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya,

Uganda, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea), that promoting these

countries to seek for mechanisms to enhance cooperation between them. Co-operation

between these countries started many years ago.

It focused mainly on organizing the exploitation

of the Nile water and ensuring the optimal

distribution of the Nile water. In order to achieve

this, number of treaties had been signed between

these countries, and number of organizations had

been established. [24]

The dimension of water is the main driver

of the relations between the countries of the

Basin. These relations become more important, in

the light of increasing the need to water

resources, and exposure of water resources in the coming years for the loss and scarcity.

In spite of the threats facing the Nile water it has become necessary to search for the best

possible ways to strengthen co-ordination and co-operation among Nile Basin countries

to ensure the proper utilization of the Nile water.

II. Literature Review

The study of water crisis in Egypt is a very important topic because Egypt suffers

from water problems. Classed as a water scarce country, its citizens receive less than

1000 m3 of fresh water per capita each year. Few studies addressed this problem.

7

Examples of these studies:

1) A study conducted by EL ZANATY AND ASSOCIATES on Knowledge,

Attitudes, and Practices of Egyptian Farmers towards Water Resources.

This survey was a national impact survey for the purpose of monitoring national

trends regarding the ways in which farmers manage water. The main objective of the

KAP survey was to monitor trends related to farmers’ knowledge, attitudes and practices

towards water resources. The survey targeted 2,200 farmers.

2) Study conducted by Hussein Abdel Shafy of the Egyptian National Research Center

and Medhat Saleh of Al-Azhar University on exploiting naturally occurring resources and

developed original theories to assist rural locales in achieving effective sanitation. [16]

This study will continue the previous studies which made on the awareness of people

on water crisis.

III. Importance AND OBJECTIVE of the Study

This study aims to measure the awareness of youth on water crisis, and whether

they are really worried about the water security problem in Egypt through the following

questions and threats.

Is Egypt on the outskirts of water war?

Is it a political problem or water problem?

Are the hidden hands (Israel) playing a role to decline Egypt's quota?

What is the impact of Entebbe treaty on Egypt's quota?

How to deal with current developments?

Questions

8

Egypt needs 86 billion cubic meters of water under the water shortage risk in

2017.

United Nations announced in 2007 that temperatures rising due to climate

changes may lead to more desertification, and these countries may lose 60% of

the Nile water.

Egypt depends on 97% of its water needs on the Nile River.

If Egypt has to buy water, that costs 28 billion yearly.

In particular, this study aims to explore Egyptian youth knowledge and attitudes towards the Nile

water problem; specifically:

1. Identifying Nile Basin countries, treaties signed between them, and the

relationship between them.

2. Identifying Egypt's quota of river water and the risks that threaten us if Egypt's

quota was reduced.

3. Knowing the presence of foreign interference in this problem is to disrupt the

interests of Egypt.

4. Identifying the consequences of this problem in the future for the coming

generations.

In addition to exploring youth attitudes towards the Egyptian policy, and their

suggestions to solve this crisis.

IV. Relations between Egypt and Nile Basin countries

Relations between Egypt and Nile Basin countries are based on number of

dimensions. The dimension of water is the most prominent dimension due to the

requirements of geographical conditions and participation among those countries in the

Nile Basin which necessitated the frameworks to regulate the Nile water between them

that seemed evident from the treaties and institutional frameworks.

Threats

9

[1] The Dimension of Water

Nile Basin countries reached to number

of treaties and institutional frameworks to

regulate the exploitation of the Nile water

between them.

A. The legal Regulation

Water relations between the countries of the Nile River established on the basis of

a set of agreements and protocols, which back to Rome Protocol, signed on 15 April

1891 between Britain and Italy on the identification of areas of each country in East

Africa. Italy pledged not to establish any facilities for irrigation purposes on the Atbara

River can affect the behavior of the Nile. [2]

The most important treaties:

a) 1929 Treaty

This treaty regulates the water relations between Egypt and countries

of Equatorial plateau. It also included items concerning the relationship of water between

Egypt and Sudan. It had been received by letter from the Egyptian Prime Minister and

British High Commissioner.

b) 1959 Treaty

It is a complementary to the 1929 treaty not void to it, where it includes the full

control of Egypt and Sudan Nile water.

The agreement provides for Egypt 48 billion cubic meters annually, as well as the

right of Sudan estimated by 4 billion cubic meters annually, the approval of the two

countries to Egypt's establishment of the High Dam and Sudan to establish a reservoir

Rosieres on Blue Nile. In the same context the agreement includes distribution of interest

water of the High Dam estimated by 22 billion cubic meters annually on the two

countries so that Sudan gets only 14.5 billion cubic meters, and Egypt gets 7.5 billion

cubic meters. Then the total quota of Egypt is 55.5 billion cubic meters, and 18.5 billion

cubic meters for Sudan annually. [21]

10

c) Entebbe Treaty

This treaty was signed by 6 countries from the upstream countries (Ethiopia,

Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, and Burundi) in the capital Entebbe on 14 May 2010.

Democratic Congo and Burundi did not attend the signing ceremony.

Although the seven upstream countries demand all the need to reconsider these two

treaties, Egypt and Sudan insist that any amendment must be approved by all the Basin

countries on the basis of the text of the treaties to the actual need of each to Nile water

and how to share and invest in.

There are three controversial items:

1. Abolition of historical quotas, compared to the formulation of a new item states that

use all the Nile Basin countries to the river water to achieve water security.

2. Requirement of consensus rather than majority when change any of the terms of the

treaty.

3. The need for prior notification of Egypt and Sudan with projects and dams which

upstream countries intend to it (the Egyptian veto).

Although Entebbe does not specify any new numbers to next share of water, but

practically cancels 1929 and 1959 treaties. Allowing for the Basin countries to

use water as it deems necessary without harm to other countries, and the

establishment of the Office of the Nile Basin countries in the capital Addis

Ababa. [22]

B. The Institutional Aspect

It should be noted that the institutional aspect is important in the framework of

activating the frameworks of cooperation among Nile Basin countries as follows:

a) Nile Water Institution

A permanent technical common Institution was established for Nile water between

Egypt and Sudan, a body that was made in accordance with the treaty in 1959. It is

working to study and create projects to increase the river revenue.

11

b) Hydromet project

It is concerned with the study of meteorological and water for the Basin of

equatorial lakes. This project had been launched in 1967 with the participation of only

five countries of the ten Basin countries. They are Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and

Sudan. After that joined by Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Congo, and Ethiopia joined as

an observer.

c) Indigo congregation

The establishment of congregation was announced during the first Ministerial

Conference of the Nile Basin countries held in Khartoum in 1983 to coordinate between

countries towards the issues of regional, support cooperation between the countries of

congregation in the development field, exchange of experiences in all fields in order to

support regional cooperation, and to support the economic integration between the

Member States of the convention. [20]

d) Techno Nil congregation

It is congregation for technical co-operation among Nile Basin countries for the

development and protection of the environment, this congregation was established in

December 1992 with the participation of six countries as active members are: Egypt,

Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Democratic Congo, while the rest countries got

the observer status.

e) The Nile Basin Initiative

The ten Nile Basin countries had involved in an initiative known as the Nile Basin

Initiative, which agreed with nine of these states (except Eritrea as an observer).The

initiative aims to seek creating a legal template for Nile water usage, raising the level

and degree of co-operation of water resources, improving the methods of Nile water

usage to achieve the benefit of economic and social development for all peoples of the

Basin, and keeping sustainable management of Nile water to achieve mutual goals

between these countries.

f) The Technical Office of the Regional Eastern Nile (Intro)

It is a regional office was established in March 2001 agreement between Egypt,

Sudan, and Ethiopia in Addis Ababa to discuss joint water projects, which are grouped in

(Programme of work for the Eastern Nile Basin). The program includes several projects

in the flood control area and generates electricity from river water.

12

[2] The Economic Dimension

Perhaps the events in Darfur and southern Sudan, what is happening in the Great

Lakes region and Somalia, and the dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia weakened the

chances of integration across the continent, so we need to reformulate the vision of Egypt

future return to Africa.

A. Economic characteristics of Nile Basin countries

Nile Basin countries include ten countries where (260) million live at, and

economies of these States are characterized by the following:

1- The presence of chronic structural deficit in the balance of payments of these countries

due to the internal problems, in spite of the enjoyment of many natural resources of

minerals, forests ,and livestock .

2- The high level of external indebtedness of these countries to GDP.

3- Low rates of economic development in those countries.

4- The high rate of inflation, and increased risk-marketing.

5- Non-availability of qualified technical cadres at all levels.

6- Poor worker productivity and reduced health care.

7- Low levels of technology used in production.

8- Lack of transportation and communication networks.

9- Lack of capital formation necessary for the development processes.

10- Low level of GDP per capita ,in spite of the wealth these countries enjoyed it ,which

is one of the most African countries equipped to precious metals such as diamonds

,alkobac, uranium ,and oil).[13]

B.Foreign Trade of Nile Basin countries

Nile Basin countries suffer from a deficit in the trade balance due to weak import

bill as a result of the inability of the productive apparatus for the provision of consumer

needs, although they are almost self-sufficient in raw materials of mineral, agricultural,

and animal, for example Egypt’s exports and imports from Nile Basin countries:

13

1. Indicators of Trade Exchange between Egypt and Nile Basin countries:

Table 1:Trade exchange between Egypt and Nile Basin countries:

(Value in U.S. $ million)

Egypt - Nile Basin countries 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Egyptian exports 115 145 271.2 264.8 269.7

Egyptian imports 123.4 86 94 89 103

Trade balance (8.4) 59 177.2 175.8 166.7

Source: The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.

This Table indicates that Egypt’s exports to Nile Basin countries increased from

2003 to 2007.While its imports decreased through these years.

2.Obstacles of the Trade Exchange :

1- The lack of shipping lines (air and sea) regularly between Egypt and most countries

in Africa as well as they have canceled flights.

2- The presence of many of the shortcomings of railway lines, and increasing the cost

of transportation.

3- The lack of insurance system, as well as the absence of branches of Egyptian banks

in most African countries, where the dependent transactions on the African continent

on the personal relations between exporters and importers businessmen.

4- Scarcity of information on the African market to the Egyptian trade companies.

Arab Republic of Egypt: Egypt's exports to Nile Basin countries are: iron , steel

products , glass ,chemical compounds ,pharmaceuticals for human medicine , white

cement , wooden furniture , textile products ,marble , building materials ,rice ,and

fertilizer. While Egypt imports from Nile Basin countries some agricultural and

mineral raw materials, tea comes as the most important Egypt’s imports, followed by

sesame seeds, living camels, and leather. [23]

14

5- Lack of marketing policy of Egyptian products' promotion through various media

on the African market.

6- There are no permanent exhibitions of Egyptian goods in African countries.[4]

3.Axes to promote trade Co-operation of the Nile Basin countries:

First: Trade liberalization

a - Maximizing the use of the COMESA Trade

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) consists of

19 countries and nine countries established a free trade zone in 1999. These countries

are: Egypt, Sudan, Kenya, Mauritius, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Djibouti, Malawi, and

Madagascar, then joined the two countries Rwanda and Burundi, followed by the

Comoros in June 2006. It is noted the membership of four Nile Basin countries in the

COMESA free trade (Sudan, Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi).

b- Optimization of the COMESA Treaty through

1- Promoting trade exchange between Egypt and the Member States in the free trade

area by working to eliminate all exceptions applied by some countries (Kenya and

Sudan). Encourage states that have not yet acceded to the free trade area to join.

2- The Egyptian goods' promotion in the COMESA countries such as the

establishment of specialized exhibitions and promotional missions for Eastern and

Southern Africa.

3- Identifying number of Egyptian products that have a great opportunity in the

COMESA markets. [10]

Second: Investment and common projects

Make connections with governmental bodies of Nile Basin countries through

Egyptian embassies and commercial representation offices to identify investment

opportunities, available projects, and the technical support required.

Call of Egyptian businessmen to establish common investment projects.

15

Third: The promotion of Egyptian Exports and holding

commercial transactions

Organizing promotional campaigns including governmental delegations,

businessmen and in co-ordination with the African Chambers union, the Egyptian

Businessmen Association, and the Association of East and Southern Africa COMESA

with a focus on goods where Egypt has a competitive advantage.

Developing a policy to promote the Egyptian products marketing, also

identifying export and import opportunities from Nile Basin countries.

Fourth: Financing and guarantee Exports and Investment

Make sure that Egyptian exporters have benefited from financial assistance

provided by the African Development Bank and other international financial

institutions in the development of exports.

The exchange of direct banking relations and establishing branches of Egyptian

banks.

[3]: The Political Dimension

When the issue of the relationship between Egypt and African countries raised in

general ,and between Egypt and Nile Basin countries in particular, there are many things

can be debatable, because Egypt is the leading country that supported the national

liberation movements, since Muhammad Ali Pasha entered the south meaning access to

the source of the Nile. Egypt remained governor of these areas until 1924 when Britain

was able to monopolize governing of this country and an end to the Egyptian presence.

There are attempts by number of Nile Basin countries to strengthen political

relations with each other through the revitalization of the joint committees work, and

discuss issues of common interest which have an impact on internal security in some

countries in the Basin in particular. The following points may affect the political relations:

16

Separation of Sudan will add a new node to Sudan and Nile Basin countries in

general. [19]

Strengthen U.S. relations with many countries of upstream, in the context of

trying to enter the U.S. on the African continent.

Israel's role in inciting the upstream countries to sign the Framework Agreement,

which was objected by Egypt ,or stop Egypt form raising nuclear capabilities

Zionism in international forums.

Signing a treaty between Nile Basin countries on how to share the Nile water,

virtually eliminating the previous two treaties which organized the relationship

between the Basin states over the previous decades. The signs of crisis in the

relations between these countries have begun, so the title of this crisis is “War on

water”.

The current problem between the countries of the Nile Basin is essentially a

political problem and not a problem on water ,where the Nile River has an

estimated 1660 billion cubic meters of water.[8]

Foreign Policy towards African countries and the countries of

the Basin in particular

Egypt crisis with Nile Basin countries has

many causes not born of the moment, but is the

result of the Egyptian foreign policy accumulated

errors towards those African countries, especially

in the moment gone by Egypt back to Africa after

the failed attempt to assassinate the previous

President Mubarak in 1995 in Addis Ababa.

Declining the Egyptian African role in the

past few decades from a supporter of African

liberation movements, assistance in resolving their

problems, to retreat and changing priorities in the

Egyptian continental and international policies.

17

[4] The Cultural Dimension

Culture is an important axis

in the relations between Nile Basin

countries through the missions of

cultural exchange, and co-operation

in various fields of culture.

The most indicators of the cultural Communication:

1. Scholarships offered by the Egyptian Ministry of Awqaf and Al-Azhar Al-Sharif for

African students (from Nile Basin countries) in addition to sending scientists from Al-

Azhar to African countries.

2. Participating in national celebrations between Nile Basin countries, and consolidating

the bonds of co-operation between States.

3. Communicating with the forces of civil society and interacting with the public

opinion. As cultural co-operation with societies of Nile Basin countries provide a solid

foundation and encourage policies of their governments about co-operation on Nile

water.

4. Egyptian media towards Nile Basin countries:

The Egyptian media policy has to confirm meanings related to public policy and the

Egyptian Foreign policy. On one hand it highlights the trend of Egypt's proposal to

renounce violence and work to combat terrorism, on the other hand stresses the

importance of peaceful settlement of disputes. In addition it shows the importance of

common work between the countries of the continent, as well as highlighting the climate

of stability in Egypt will allow the flow of investments, and extend an invitation to the

brothers of African tourism in Egypt. [1]

18

The following graph represents the main components of this chapter:

Chapter 2

Methodoligical

Procedures

Questionnaire

Design

Pre-Test

Data Collection

Editing and

Coding

Data Analysis

Chapter Two

{METHDOLOGY}

19

A. Methodological procedures

Our goal from this part is to reflect:

i. Target Population

As the study aims to measure the awareness of youth on water crisis

and to explore their attitudes and practices towards the water crisis, the study

should have been applied to the youth in all parts of Egypt. Due to the large

size and wide spread of the population, difficulty to collect data from a

representative sample for the population, the high cost and limited time, the

study was conducted on “Cairo university students”.

Thus, the Target Population becomes “Cairo University students”.

ii. Sample Design

As the accessible population is “Cairo university students”, it was

decided to study whether the awareness of the students on water crisis and

their attitudes differ according to the type of faculty whether it’s Literature or

Scientific, the suggested sample technique is “Stratified Random Sample”.

The Reasons behind using Stratified Random Sample are:

1. A stratified sample often requires a smaller sample, which saves money.

2. A stratified sample can guard against an "unrepresentative" sample.

20

3. It provides sufficient sample points to support a separate analysis of any

subgroup.[5]

iii. Suggested Sample Technique

As the suggested sample technique is “stratified random sample”, so Cairo

University includes two strata:

The Sample was selected in two phases:

Phase One: Selecting a faculty from each stratum randomly.

Phase Two: Students are randomly selected from each selected faculty.

Two faculties were randomly selected according to the type of faculty

whether it’s Literature or Scientific:

1. Faculty of Economics and Political Science represents the literature faculties.

2. Faculty of Engineering represents the scientific faculties.

So our main domain can be summarized as follows:

literature Faculties

Scientific Faculties

Cairo University

21

iv. Sample Size

The following formula was used to calculate the sample size, assuming a

95% confidence level:

Where:

n: The minimum required sample size.

Zα/2: (1.96) which is the value obtained from the standard normal table using

95% confidence level (α = 0.05).

E2: The sampling error and it is estimated to be 5%.

P: Actual population proportion, (it is set as 0.5 to have the maximum sample

size needed).

Then assuming a 25% non-response rate, which eventually resulted with the

actual sample size as follows:

A sample of 500 students was selected; from both faculties and students were

randomly selected representing {Gender (male, female), years, Departments, sections, and

place of residence}.

The number of students in Faculty of Economics and Political Science and Faculty

of Engineering are presented in Table 2.1 by gender, and table 2.2 presents the

distribution of the sample.

Actual sample size (n) = Sample size (n) + Non-response size

Then:

Actual sample size (n) = 384 + (0.25 * 384) = 480

n = [(Z α/2)2 P (1- P)] / E2

Then:

n = [(1.96)2 0.5 (1- 0.5)] / (0.05)2 = 384

22

Table 2.1:The number of students in each faculty according to

gender from the population:

Faculty Male Female Total

Economics 732 2089 2821

Engineering 7464 2306 9770 Source: Calculated by authors.

Table 2.2: The sample that taken from each faculty according to

gender:

Faculty Male Female Total

Economics 52 198 250

Engineering 170 80 250 Source: Calculated by authors.

To reflect the actual population in the two Faculties, weights

had to be applied. These weights were calculated according to the

following formula:

Where:

h: Denotes the hth

stratum (faculty); h=1(Faculty of Economics and Political

Science,2(Faculty of Engineering).

i: Denotes the ith

gender ;i=1(male),2(female)

N: The population size (12591 students).

Nhi: Number of students in hth stratum for i

th gender

nhi: The sample size taken from ith gender and h

th Faculty.

n: The total sample size (500 students).

Whi = (Nhi / N) * (n/ nhi)

23

Table 2.3 :Weights according to gender:

Faculty Male Female

Economics .56 0.42

Engineering 1.74 1.14 Source: Calculated by authors.

It was supposed to select the sample randomly from lists of students .Due to

difficulty to have these lists it was decided to take students from different lecture rooms,

and in different times.

B. Questionnaire design

The questionnaire collects information on the following topics:

Personal questions:

It includes questions from (1→7), related to:

(Gender, Age, Place of residence, Faculty, Section, Year and

Department), from these questions general background about youth

could be formed.

Media role questions:

It includes questions from (8→11).

These questions are about the sources of information including

traditional means (T.V, Newspaper, and Radio), and modern (Internet

and Conferences).

Youth general information on crisis:

It includes questions from (12→22).

These questions measure the extent of being aware of the number of

Nile Basin countries, number of treaties, Egypt quota and Egypt position from

last treaty.

24

“There are some open questions in order to give youth the opportunity to express their

opinions freely whether their opinions are political, economic or social”.

Youth Economic vision:

It includes questions from (30→33).

These questions show the youth economic perception on solutions

for the crisis such as investment or sending workers abroad to Nile Basin

countries.

Youth Social vision:

It includes questions from (34→35).

These questions collect information on the youth social vision about

solving water crisis problem.

Realizing the situation in Egypt :

It includes questions from (36→39).

These questions aim to explore youth attitudes towards the water

crisis in Egypt and their suggested practices in: irrigation, industry, and

households.

Youth Political vision:

It includes questions from (23→29).

These questions measure the extent of being aware of Egypt relation

with the Nile Basin countries and show the youth opinion about the

Egyptian government role in solving the problem of water crisis.

25

c. Pre-test

This survey was preceeded by a pre-test to guarantee comprehensiveness clarity

and consistency of the questionnaire, this pre-test was conducted on 20 students

distributed equally between the two selected faculties. Results were discussed and some

modifications were done to ensure ease and clarity. These modifications were:

Question (6) → Modified to be an open question.

Question (24) → Added.

Questions (31/36/37/38/39) → Allowed doing multiple answers.

The detailed questionnaire is presented in Appendix V.

D. Data Collection

A self-administered questionnaire was conducted to the selected sample. This

questionnaire was suited for the purpose of descriptive analysis, as well as providing a

basis for explanation of conceptual relationships.

Data collection process was carried out in March 2011. Before collecting the data;

some difficulties were faced such as getting permission from student’s affairs to enter the

faculty of Engineering, and getting permission to have the number of students in both

faculties. Thus, it took 10 days to get the permissions and the number of students.

The actual time of data collection took approximately two weeks.

Difficulties of data collection field work:

1- Students’ low awareness of the importance of data collection.

2- The extreme difficulty to get the total number of students in both faculties, especially

the number of students of Engineering because of the large number of sections.

3- Difficulties during distributing questionnaires, as some of the students find the subject

so boring and there are many pages to fill, so they either refuse to fill the questionnaires,

take the questionnaires and throw them away without answering them, or do not pay

attention to us while we are talking to them and this is so humiliating.

4- Some students do not know “what is a questionnaire”, so they were afraid to fill it in

order not to get into troubles.

26

To overcome this problem, we illustrated the meaning of a questionnaire. We were

careful to assure them that this project is a "statistical project, it is not social or polit ical",

it wouldn’t be discussed outside the framework of the faculty, as their names are not in

the questionnaire.

E. editing and coding

Students’ responses were reviewed, incomplete and inconsistent ones were

excluded.

Data Entry: Data were entered using SPSS.

Coding has been done such as:

Age→ (less than 18 years=1, from 18 to 20 years=2, and more than 20 years =3).

Number of States→ (less than 5 states=1, from 6 to 9 states=2, from 10 to 11

states=3, and more than 12=4).

Number of treaties→ (from 1 to 4 treaties=1, from 5 to 10 treaties=2, and

more than 11 treaties=3).

Last treaty date→ (1929-1955=1, 1956-1985=2, and 1986-2011=3). Number of items→ (from 1 to 3=1, from 4 to 7=2, and more than 7=3).

And so on.

All open questions and the answers that came in the selection of other were

taken into consideration in the project conclusion.

f. Data analysis

The objectives of the study were achieved using a combination of

different statistical tools such as:

1. Assessing the relationships between variables: Using statistical tool as

Chi-square test.

2. Assessing the strength of association: Using measures Such as Gamma

and Odds Ratio.

3. Factor Analysis: Was performed in order to construct a” knowledge of youth”

index.

4. Logistic Model: Was performed to study the main determinants of youth

knowledge on the water crisis.

27

In this chapter, the sample will be described through five sections

addressed in the research as follows:

Chapter 3

Characteristics

of the

Respondents

Knowledge of youth

about the water

problem

Treaties that were

signed between

Egypt and Nile

Basin countries

knowledge of youth

about the internal

water crisis in

Egypt

Views to Solve

Water Crisis

The Political

Dimension

The Economic

Dimension

The Social

Dimension

Chapter Three

{Background characteristics and knowledge of water crisis}

28

SECTION 1: background characteristics of the respondents

In this section, the sample will be described based on personal characteristics of the

respondents as (age, place of residence, section, department, and year) as follows:

Figure 3.1: Percent distribution of respondents’ age according to their sex

This figure shows that the

majority of the sample are 18

years or older .The percentage

of males whose age exceed 20

is greater than percentage of

females by 18 percentage

points, while percentage of

females whose age is less than

18 years is twice percentage of

males. Source: created by authors.

Figure 3.2: Percent distribution of respondents’ by place of residence

according to their sex

This figure shows that the

majority of the selected

sample either males or

females live in urban areas.

The percentage of males

who live in rural areas is

very slightly higher than

percentage of females. Source: created by authors.

Figure 3.3: Percent distribution of respondents’ sections in Faculty of

Economics and Political Science

Most of respondents in

Faculty of Economics and

Political Science are in

Arabic section, followed by

English section, while the

lowest percentage is in

French section.

Source: created by authors.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

male female

11% 7%

89% 93%

rural

urban

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

less than 18 years

from 18 to 20 years

higher than 20

years

8%

42%50%

16%

52%

32%

male

female

0

20

40

60

Arabic English French

51%

38%

11%

29

Figure 3.4: Percent distribution of respondents’ departments in both

faculties

Economics department in

Faculty of Economics and

Political Science, and Civil

Engineering in Faculty of

Engineering have the

highest percentage of

students in the sample.

Source: created by authors.

Section 2: Knowledge of youth about the water problem between

Egypt and Nile Basin countries

In this section, the level and source of students’ knowledge of water crisis are

presented.

Table 3.1 represents the percentage of students either males or females who have

information on the crisis.

Table 3.1: Having information according to (faculty and gender)

Gender

Faculty

Total

Economics

and

Political

Science

Engineering

Male

Information Yes 86% 94% 94%

No 14% 6% 6%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Female

Information Yes 88% 90% 89 %

No 12% 10% 11%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Source: calculated by authors.

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

stat

isti

cs

Eco

no

mic

s

Po

litic

al s

cien

ce

Wit

ho

ut

maj

or

in …

Elec

tro

nic

s &

…

Civ

il en

gin

eeri

ng

Po

wer

& …

Bio

…

Arc

hit

ectu

re

Co

mp

ute

r …

Me

chan

ical

…

Avi

atio

n &

…

Pet

role

um

…

Me

chan

ical

…

Min

ing

Pro

ject

…

35%

22%

30

In general males are more knowledgeable on the crisis than females (94% and 89%)

respectively. The percentage of males who have information on the crisis in Faculty of

Engineering is higher than the percentage of males in Faculty of Economics and Political

Science. The percentage of females who have information on the crisis in Faculty of

Engineering is approximately equal to the percentage of females in Faculty of Economics

and Political Science.

Table 3.2 represents the sources of the students’ information on the crisis.

Table 3.2: Source of knowledge according to (faculty and gender)

Source of

information

Faculty of Economics and

Political Science

Faculty of Engineering

Male Female Male Female

T.V Internet

Newspapers Conferences

Radio Friends

64%

60%

52%

17%

8%

16%

75%

53%

48%

4 %

10%

30%

79%

71%

47%

5 %

14%

40%

90%

52%

38%

0%

10%

16% Source: calculated by authors.

It is obvious that the most important source of information is T.V, followed by

Internet, Newspapers, Friends, Radio, and finally conferences. As it is shown above 64%

of males in Faculty of Economics and Political Science, and 79% of males in Faculty of

Engineering, also 75% of females in Faculty of Economics and Political Science, and

90% of females in Faculty of Engineering depend on T.V, as it is easier and many people

have it.

Figure 3.5: Percent distribution about the sufficiency of information sources

This figure shows that students

aren’t satisfied with the amount of

information they have from the

different sources. When they were

asked about the sufficiency of

information that they gained, the

majority either males or females

their answers were may be.

Source: created by authors.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

yes maybe no

sufficient_information

6 %

58 %

36%

7%

65%

28%male

female

31

Figure 3.6: Percent distribution for the number of Nile Basin states

This figure shows that 43% of the

students chose an answer

extremely close to the correct one.

While 28.9% of the students’

answers were exactly correct as

they mentioned that the number of

Nile Basin countries is 10

countries. 47% of the students

their answers were slightly close

to right. This result reflects that

the students in this sample have

general information on the crisis.

Source: created by authors.

Figure 3.7: Percent distribution of “is Egypt mouth or source country?”

This figure indicates that

almost all the sample both

males or females chose the

right answer of this question

which is Egypt is a mouth

country .This confirms the

deduced conclusion from the

previous figure which is

students in this sample have

general information on this

topic.

Source: created by authors.

Section 3: knowledge of treaties that were signed between Egypt

and Nile Basin countries

In this section, the general information of students about the historical aspect of the

water problem between Egypt and Nile Basin countries will be measured.

Before analyzing table 3.3, which reflects the information of students

in both faculties according to their sex, the valid answers of these

questions will be mentioned first:

Four treaties were signed between Nile Basin countries.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

male female

99% 97 %

1% 3%

mouth

source

1%

47%

43%

9%less than 5 states

from 6 to 9 states

from 10 to 11 states

greater than 12 states

32

The last treaty was in 2010.

Egypt disagreed on the last treaty.

Egypt refused three items in the last treaty.

Egypt’s quota was determined in 1959 treaty.

The annual Egyptian quota from the Nile River water is 55.5 billion cubic meters.

Table 3.3: Knowledge about treaties that were signed between Egypt and

Nile Basin countries

Faculty of

Economics and

Political Science

Faculty of

Engineering

Total

Number of

treaties

From 1 to 4 treaties From 5 to 10 treaties More than 11 treaties

Male Female Male Female

50%

44%

6%

48%

48%

4%

72%

11%

17%

47%

41%

12%

63%

24%

13%

Last treaty

date

From 1929 to 1955 From 1956 to 1985 From 1986 to 2011

0%

29 %

71%

3%

9%

88%

8%

30%

62%

0%

0%

100%

5%

23%

72%

Egypt

position

from the

last

agreement

agree on all items disagree on all items Disagree on some of the items Don’t know

0%

33%

43%

24%

1%

26%

31%

42%

4%

18%

35%

43%

1 %

20%

21%

58%

3%

21%

32%

44%

Number of

items that

Egypt

refused in

the last

treaty

From 1 to 3 items From 4 to 7 items More than 7 items

67%

33%

0%

73%

27%

0%

70%

30%

0%

67%

0%

33%

70%

28%

2%

Treaty that

determined

Egypt quota

1959 treaty 1929 treaty 1970 treaty 1980 treaty Don’t know

38%

14%

3%

10%

35%

26%

14%

3%

5%

52%

25%

20%

4%

4 %

47%

19%

4%

3%

3%

71%

25%

16%

3%

5%

51%

33

Annual

Egypt quota

From 50 to 56 billion From 60 to 66 billion From 70 to 76 billion From 80 to 86 billion Don’t know

50%

13%

3%

4%

30%

40%

7%

4%

5%

44%

48%

9%

3%

8%

32%

31 %

3%

7%

10%

49 %

44%

8%

4%

8%

36% Source: calculated by authors.

The findings confirm that males are more knowledgeable on the crisis than

females. For example Egypt’s quota; the highest percentage was “50 to 56 billion” in

both faculties, but most of females did not know the Egyptian quota. Also it was

concluded that students in Faculty of Economics and Political Science have general

information on the historical aspect of the water problem between Egypt and the Nile

Basin countries and the signed treaties between them more than students in the Faculty of

Engineering.

Figure 3.8: Student’s perception on the state that tries to decrease Egypt’s

quota

Figure 3.8 indicates that the

majority of students realized

that Ethiopia is the most

influencing country. The

reason behind this attitude is

85% from Egypt’s quota

comes from this state as it is a

source state.

Source: created by authors.

Figure 3.9: Percent distribution for the supportive state

78% of the sample chose

Sudan to be the supportive

state, and they were right

because Egypt and Sudan are

the only mouth states, so they

usually support each other, also

Sudan is considered the

extension of Egypt.

Source: created by authors.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Kenya Ethiopia Sudan Eritrea don't know

3%

77%

9%1%

10%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Ethiopia Sudan Kenya Uganda don't know

1%

78%

2% 1%

18%

34

Section 4: Knowledge of youth about water situation in Egypt

In this section, the problem of water in Egypt will be specified into the most consuming

water sectors and trying to find a solution for these sectors in order to prevent the deterioration

in water status.

Table 3.4: Sectors that consume water

Faculty of Economics

and Political Science

Faculty of

Engineering

Total

water-consuming

sectors

Agricultural sector Household sector Industrial sector

Male Female Male Female

79%

33%

7%

70%

34%

5%

69%

26%

10%

64%

33%

11%

69%

29%

9%

Agricultural

sector

Decrease rice area Import crops Change irrigation ways

21%

10%

86%

11%

9%

90%

8%

3%

94%

4%

0%

97%

9%

4%

93%

Household sector

Water pricing enactment of laws to limit the increasing in consumption increase awareness

7%

24%

90%

10%

24%

81%

8%

27%

82%

2%

38%

67%

7%

29%

80%

Industrial

sector

desalination of sea water water recycling

water pricing

the use of ground water

45%

67%

20%

20%

42%

52%

13%

17%

45%

69%

13%

23%

45%

65%

4%

7%

44%

65%

12%

19%

Source: calculated by authors.

From the above Table it was deduced that all the students either males or females

in both faculties saw that the most consuming sector of water is the agricultural sector,

and the most suitable way to decrease the amount of water that this sector consumes is to

change irrigation ways. They saw that household sector comes after agricultural sector in

35

consuming large amount of water and the most suitable solution for this was increasing

the awareness to save water. Regarding the industrial sector; all the students saw that this

sector is the least sector consuming water among the all sectors, and they also found the

solution for this sector is water recycling.

Section 5: Views to Solve Water Crisis

Finally this section contains two aspects, first: opinions of the youth regarding the

previous government actions and policies toward the problem. Second: suggested

solutions that may help to solve the problem and these problems and suggested solutions

will be divided into three parts as follows:

A: problem and Solutions for Political Dimension

Table 3.5: Political view on the crisis

Faculty of

Economics and

Political Science

Faculty of

Engineering

Total

5%

47%

48%

Perception of

Egypt

relationship

Strong Moderate Isolated

Male Female Male Female

3%

40%

57%

5%

49%

46%

5%

44%

51%

8%

55%

37%

The previous

government role

Completely agree Agree Disagree Don’t know

3%

11%

76%

10%

4%

12%

58%

26%

2%

17%

66%

15%

2%

12%

58%

28%

3%

14%

64%

19%

The Egyptian

diplomacy role

Completely agree Agree Disagree Don’t know

3%

8%

72%

17%

4%

10%

53%

33%

3 %

19%

59%

19%

0%

27%

40%

33%

3%

18%

55%

24%

State has

influence on

this problem

U.S.A China Israel

11%

0%

89%

19%

0%

81%

22%

3%

75%

38%

4%

58%

23%

3%

74%

36

Source: calculated by authors.

It is very clear from the above Table that all students saw that Egypt was separated

from Nile Basin countries. They weren’t satisfied with neither the Egyptian diplomacy

nor the previous Egyptian government in their ways to solve the water problem. They

were sure from the foreign intervention in this problem, the Israel's presence in Nile

basin countries, and their opinion was” Egypt is not ready for war on water now”.

Finally, they don’t prefer the military intervention in order to solve this problem.

B: Problem and Solutions for Economic Dimension

Table 3.6: Economic view on the crisis

Faculty of

Economics and

Political Science

Faculty of

Engineering

Total

Investment in

Nile Basin

countries

Yes No

Male Female Male Female

72%

28%

78%

22%

83%

17%

76%

24%

80%

20%

which field we

should invest

Agriculture Industrial Services

70%

30%

44%

68%

43%

32%

73%

48%

45%

79%

43%

36%

73%

45%

42%

Sending

agricultural

workers

Agree Disagree

71%

29%

67%

33%

60%

40%

65%

35%

63%

37%

Military

intervention

Yes No May be Don’t know

31%

41%

21%

7%

10%

69%

10%

11%

18%

51%

25%

6%

20%

56%

17%

7%

18%

54%

21%

7%

Egypt ready for

war on water

Yes No Not now Don’t know

27%

23%

46%

4%

7 %

44%

41%

8%

15%

19%

62%

4%

11%

31%

55%

3%

14%

26%

56%

4%

37

This will solve

the

overpopulation

Yes No Don’t know

60%

32%

8%

52%

33%

15%

44%

36%

20%

58%

32%

10%

49%

35%

16%

Source: calculated by authors.

As mentioned before, the students in both faculties disagreed on military

intervention for this problem. They preferred investment to be the suitable solution for

the water problem. Since the most important sector in Egypt is the agricultural sector

because Egypt is an agricultural country, and farmers represent 40% of the labor force,

students suggested Egypt to invest in Nile Basin countries in this field by sending farmers

to these countries as they suffer from lack of” Agricultural workers “.By this solution

Egypt may also solve the overpopulation problem (Hit two birds with one stone).

C: problem and Solutions for Social Dimension

Figure 3.10: Social view on the crisis

As it is shown from this figure

that the majority of students are

not satisfied of our social

relationships with Nile basin

countries. This was expected,

because Egyptian people were

isolated from Africans a long

time ago.

Source: created by authors.

6%

30%

56%

8%

yes

maybe

no

don't know

38

In this chapter, the main goal is to analyze the nature of relationships

between variables,and this graph will visualize the main components :

Chapter 4

Constructing the

Index

Knowledge of

Water Crisis and

Background

Characteristics

Knowledge of

Water Crisis and

Exposure to Media

Internal water

crisis in Egypt

Attitudes towards

Solving Water

Crisis

Political

Dimension

Economic

Dimension

Social

Dimension

Chapter Four

{Determinants of Knowledge of Water Crisis}

crisis}

39

Since the main goal of this study is to measure to what extent knowledge of youth

on water crisis , so an index will be constructed on knowledge of youth first before

studying the relationships.

I. Constructing the index

1. Data preparation

In this part, we will prepare the variables that will be entered in the factor analysis in

order to generate the “Knowledge of Youth” index. [11]

To create the index, we used seven questions (Q12, Q13, Q16, Q19, Q20, Q21, and

Q22) with their different categories, and each category had a code.

The questions are represented as follows:

Table 4.1: Data preparation for constructing the index

Variables Codes Binary

codes

1-Number of states

2-Mouth or Source

3-Egypt’s position

4-Treaty date

5-Annual Egypt’s

quota

Less than 5 states 1 1 From 6 to 9 states 2 0

From 10 to 11 states 3 0 More than 12 states 4 0

Mouth 1 1

Source 2 0

Completely agree on all the items 1 0

Completely disagree on all the items 2 0

Disagree on some of the items 3 1 Don’t know 4 0

1959 1 1

1929 2 0

1970 3 0

1980 4 0

Don’t know 5 0

From 50 to 56 billion 1 1

From 60 to 66 billion 2 0

From 70 to 76 billion 3 0

40

From 80 to 86 billion 4 0

Don’t know 5 0

6-Influenced state

7-Supportive state

Kenya 1 0

Ethiopia 2 1

Sudan 3 0

Eretria 4 0

Don’t know 5 0

Ethiopia 1 0

Sudan 2 1 Kenya 3 0

Uganda 4 0 Don’t know 5 0

Source: Calculated by authors.

All the previous variables were recoded as binary variables (take 1: if the student

chose the right answer and 0 otherwise).

2. Factor Analysis

Now after the preparation of the seven variables, factor analysis was done in order to

reduce these variables, and construct the index.

The results of the spss factor analysis output indicate that:

1) Three factors have eign values more than one.

2) These three factors explain around 60% of the variation.[12]

An index was created as the average of these factors .The index was transformed

from a continuous variable to a binary variable takes one if its value above the mean, and

takes zero if it is below the mean “Since its distribution is symmetric”, and finally it was

defined as (1: if the student has information on the crisis, 0 otherwise).

41

Exploring the “Knowledge of Youth” index

Table 4.2: Descriptive Measures for the Index (Knowledge of Youth)

Statistic

Knowledge of youth Mean .00

5% Trimmed Mean .04

Median .08

Std.Deviation 1.453

Minimum -4

Maximum 2

Range 6

Skewness -.387

Kurtosis -.421

Source: Calculated by authors.

The index lies between -4 and 2 with a mean of zero. The index is normal since

kurtosis is not equal to 3. The index is not affected by outliers so much since there is a

slight difference between the original mean and the 5% trimmed mean.

Figure 4.1: Box Plot for Knowledge of Youth

It is obvious from this

figure that case 29 is an

outlier since its value for

knowledge equals -4, and

we can ignore it, so the

distribution is almost

symmetric.

Source: Created by authors.

42

Figure 4.2: Normal Q-Q Plot of Knowledge of Youth

This figure reflects that

the distribution of the

index (knowledge of

youth) follows normal

distribution, as all the

points are around 45

degree line.

Source: Created by authors.

II. Knowledge of Youth and background Characteristics

Figure 4.3: Knowledge of Youth according to gender

This figure reflects that

57% of males have

information on water crisis,

compared by 38% among

females, then we can

conclude that females are

less informed on the crisis

than males.

Source: Created by authors.

{Odds Ratio for knowledge of youth (don't have information / having information) =.456

and its 95% confidence interval (.290, .717)}.

Since confidence interval of Odds Ratio doesn’t include one, then we are 95%

confident that knowledge of youth is affected by gender, so odds of males who have

information on the crisis is about 2 times odds of those who don’t have information.

In order to make sure that knowledge of youth is different regarding the gender,

two independent samples T- test was performed. The result of the analysis shows

significant difference between the two means at α=.05 which is greater than p-value

=.001.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

male female

43%

62%57%

38%don't have information

having information

43

Figure 4.4: Knowledge of Youth according to place of residence

From this figure, we can say

that the percentage of youth

who have information and lives

in rural areas is 62%.While the

percentage of those who have

information and lives in urban

areas is 49%, then we can

conclude that youth from

rural areas are more informed

than urban areas.

Source: Created by authors.

{Odds Ratio for knowledge of youth (don't have information / having information) =.586

and its 95% confidence interval (.291, 1.180)}.

With 95% confidence there is an insignificant relation between knowledge of

youth and place of residence (i.e.) they are independent.

Figure 4.5: Knowledge of Youth according to faculty

This figure shows that the

percentage of youth who have

information on the water crisis

in Faculty of Economics and

Political Science is 56%,

Compared by 49 % in Faculty

of Engineering .We can

conclude that youth in

Faculty of Economics and

Political science are more

informed than youth in

Faculty of Engineering.

Source: Created by authors.

{Odds Ratio for knowledge of youth (don't have information / having information) =.747

and its 95% confidence interval (.456, 1.223)}.

Since the confidence interval of Odds Ratio includes one, then we are 95%

confident that there is an insignificant relation between knowledge of youth and faculty

(i.e.) they are independent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

rural urban

38%

51%

62%

49%

don't have information

having information

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Economics and Political

Science

Engineering

44%

51%56%

49%

don't have information

having information

44

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

male female male female

Economics and Political Science

Engineering

71%

51%56%

25%don't have information

have information

Figure 4.6: Knowledge of Youth according to gender controlling faculty

In Faculty of Economics

and Political science, the

percentage of males who

have information on the

crisis are 71%, while this

percentage decreased to

51% among females. In

Faculty of Engineering, the

percentage of males who

have information on the

crisis are 56%, while this

percentage decreased to

25% among females.

a. Source: Created by authors.

b. *: p-value is less than 0.0005.

{Chi-Squared Cochran's Mantel-Haenszel = 19.015 and its significance = *}.

With 95% confidence there is a conditional dependence (relation) between

knowledge of youth and gender, controlling for faculty.

Figure 4.7: Knowledge of Youth according to year of the study

This figure reflects that

57% from those who have

information are in the

fourth year followed by the

second year, third year, and

finally the first year(i.e.) the

most informed youth are in

the Fourth year.

Source: Created by authors.

{Gamma = .103 and its significance = .199}.

With 95% confidence there is an insignificant ordinal association between year of

study and knowledge of youth (i.e.) knowledge of youth isn’t affected by year of the

0%

20%

40%

60%

first year

second year

third year

fourth year

45%52%

46%

57%

don't have information

having information

45

study, and this result was expected because may be a student in the first year is more

informed than a student in the fourth year.

III. Knowledge of Youth and exposure to Media

Figure 4.8: Knowledge of Youth according to source of information

Students who exposed to

modern sources of information

are more likely to have valid

information on the crisis than

those who exposed to the

traditional ones. Regarding the

source of information, data

indicates that conferences are

considered the first to provide

valid information followed by

Internet, TV and Newspaper,

Radio, and finally Friends. As

62% of those who depend on

conferences have information.

Source: Created by authors.

It was found from the analysis at α=5% that there is an insignificant ordinal

association between source of information and knowledge of youth.

IV. The internal water crisis in Egypt

Table 4.3 shows that 70 % of those who don’t have information said agricultural

sector is the most water consuming sector, compared by 74 % who have information,

while 29% of those who don’t have information said the house hold sector ,compared by

25 % who have information.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

T.V

Internet

Newspapers

Conferences

Radio

Friends

54%

56%

54%

62%

48%

47%

have information

don’t have information

46

Table 4.3: Knowledge of Youth regarding the most consuming sector for

water

The most

consuming

sector

Knowledge of Youth

Total

Don’t have

information

Have

information

Agricultural

70%

74%

72%

Household

29%

25%

27%

Industrial

11%

6%

8%

Total

100%

100%

100%

Source: Calculated by authors.

It was found from the analysis at α=5% that there is an insignificant ordinal

association between knowledge of youth and its opinion regarding the most

consuming sector for water.

V. Attitudes towards solving water crisis

V.A: Political Dimension

Table 4.4 shows that among youth who have information on the crisis, 53% did not

agree on military intervention to be a suitable solution for the crisis, and this percentage

increased to 57% among those who don’t have information.

Table4. 4: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and military

intervention

Military

intervention

Knowledge of Youth

Total

Don’t have

information

Have

information

Yes 17% 20% 19%

47

No 57% 53% 55%

Maybe 19% 18% 18%

Don't know 7% 8% 7%

Total

100%

100%

100%

Source: Calculated by authors.

{Goodman & Kruskal Tau =.001 and its significant = .725}.

With 95% confidence there is an insignificant nominal association between

Knowledge of Youth and solving the crisis by military intervention.

V.B: Economic Dimension

Table 4.5 shows that among youth who have information on the crisis, 88%

agreed on investment in Nile Bain countries to be a suitable solution, compared by

78% of those who do not have information.

Table4. 5: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and investment in

the Basin countries

Source: Calculated by authors.

{Gamma = -.356 and its significant =.010}.

With 95% confidence there is a significant ordinal moderate negative association

between Knowledge of Youth and solving the crisis by investment (i.e.) when

information of youth on the crisis increases, they become more supporters to invest in

Nile Basin countries.

Investment

Knowledge of Youth

Total

Don’t have

information

Have

information

Yes 78% 88% 83%

No 22% 12% 17%

Total 100% 100% 100%

48

V.C: Social Dimension

Table 4.6 shows that among youth who have information on the crisis, 62% did not

agree that there is a cultural relationship between Egypt, and Nile Bain countries, while

this percentage decreased to 53% among those who don’t have information.

Table 4.6: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and their opinion on

social relations

Cultural

Relationship

Knowledge of Youth

Total

Don’t have

information

Have

information

Yes 7% 6% 7%

May be 33% 29% 31%

No 53% 62% 57%

Don't know 7% 3% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Source: Calculated by authors.

{Goodman and Kruskal Tau =.004 and its significant = .209}.

With 95% confidence there is an insignificant nominal association between

Knowledge of Youth and their opinion on the cultural relationship between Nile Basin

countries.

49

In this chapter, the main goal is to construct the “logistic model”,and

this will be performed as follows:

Chapter Five

{Logistic Model}

crisis}

50

The objective of this chapter is to study the main determinants of youth

knowledge on the water crisis using the logistic model. Our analysis will be done using

SPSS package depending on a binary logistic model. Enter method will be used where

all the variables entered together into the model. This model will be tested with a

significance level of 5%.

Our response variable is the generated index “Knowledge of Youth” whether the

person have information on the crisis or not, and the explanatory variables are

"Faculty, Gender, Age, Department, and Residence".

I. Testing for Multicollinearity

Before entering the variables into the model we have tested the multicollinearity

through Factor Analysis using Principle Component technique. We have entered five

variables to test the multicollinearity between them. These variables are: Faculty, Gender,

Age, Department and Residence.

Table 5.1: Eigen values for testing multicollinearity

Component Eigen Values

1 2.173

2 1.151

3 .834

4 .638

5 .204 a. Extraction Method: Principle Component Analysis.

b. Source: Calculated by authors.

First, we don't have Eigen value close to zero except the fifth one which

indicates the absence of multicollinearity. Second, we used the condition number

which is the root of the largest Eigen value divided by the smallest.

If this condition number > 30, so there exists multicollinearity.

Since (2.173/.204)1/2

=10.65

(λ1 / λ5)1/2

51

This assures the absence of multicollinearity. Therefore, these variables could be

entered in the model to test the main determinants of youth knowledge on water crisis.

A. Categorical variables coding

In this section, a binary logistic model will be analyzed taking into consideration

that faculty, gender, place of residence, and departments are categorical variables and

hence we defined their reference categories as follows:

Reference categories are coded zeros in all its cells, i.e.:

Department Variable: The reference category is Statistics.

Residence Variable: The reference category is Rural.

Faculty Variable: The reference category is Faculty of Economics and

Political Science.

Gender Variable: The reference category is Male.

B. Testing the goodness of fit of the model using the difference in G

Squared

Table 5.2: Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

Chi-

square

df Sig.

Step

1

Step 67.759 17 *

Block 67.759 17 *

Model 67.759 17 * a. Source: Calculated by authors.

b.*: p-value is less than 0.0005.

From the above Table, we can see that the model is significant, using 95%

confidence.

C. The observed and predicted classification of knowledge

determinants

II. Knowledge of Youth

Model

52

Table 5.3: Classification Tablea

Observed Predicted

knowledge of youth Percentage

Correct don't have

information

having

information

Step 1

knowledge

of youth

Don't have

information

110 35 75.6

Have

information

50 107 68.3

Overall Percentage 71.8

a. The cut value is .500

b. Source: Calculated by authors.

The overall correct classification is 71.8%. Among those who don’t have information,

75.6% were correctly classified. Among those who have information, 68.3%were

correctly classified.

D. The significant variables in the logistic model

Table 5.4: Variables in the Equation

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Step 1a gender(1) -1.173 .336 12.176 1 0.000 .309

age .243 .107 5.137 1 .023 1.275

residence(1) .241 .456 .279 1 .597 1.273

faculty(1) -19.567 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 .000

department 32.777 13 .002

department(1) 1.603 .664 5.827 1 .016 4.969

department(2) 2.097 .722 8.436 1 .004 8.144

department(3) 3.968 1.729 5.263 1 .022 52.854

department(4) 19.504 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 2.953E8

department(5) 20.721 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 9.977E8

department(6) 19.509 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 2.970E8

department(7) 19.647 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 3.408E8

department(8) 18.726 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 1.358E8

department(9) 21.324 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 1.824E9

department(10) 20.677 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 9.552E8

department(11) 41.233 4.843E4 .000 1 .999 8.077E17

department(12) 19.787 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 3.920E8

53

department(13) 40.990 4.843E4 .000 1 .999 6.333E17

Constant -5.324 2.311 5.310 1 .021 .005

a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: gender, age, residence, faculty, and department. b. Source: Calculated by author.

E. The Estimated model

Interpretation of the coefficients

From the previous model we noticed that variables residence and faculty are

insignificantly related to knowledge of youth, while variable department is insignificantly

related to knowledge of youth except "Statistics, Economics, and Political science”

departments in Faculty of Economics and Political Science.

log(π^/1-π^)= -5.324-1.173Female+.243 Age+.241Urban-19.567Engineering+1.603Statistics+2.097 Economics+3.968 Political Science+19.504No major in Faculty of Economics and Political Science+20.721 No major in Engineering+19.509 Electronucs+19.647Civil+18.726 Power+21.324 Bio+20.677 Architecture+41.233 Computer+19.787 Mechanical+40.990 Aerospace

EXP (B) Gender: The odds of youth to have information among females decreased by

69%, compared by males keeping all the other variables fixed.

EXP (B) Age: When age increase by one year, the odds of having information will

increase by 27 % keeping all the other variables fixed.

EXP (B) Economics: Youth in faculty of Economics and Political Science with major

Economics are more likely to have information by 8.144 times than those who are in

statistics department keeping all the other variables fixed.

EXP (B) Politics: Youth in faculty of Economics and Political Science with major political

science are more likely to have information by 53 times than those who are in statistics

department keeping all the other variables fixed.

54

Chapter 6

Conclusion

Recommendations

Economically

Politically

Socially

The internal

crisis

Chapter Six

{Conclusion and Recommendations}

55

This study assesses youth awareness on water crisis in Egypt

through many dimensions.The findings of the study indicate that:

1. Students in scientific faculties (represented by Engineering students) are less

knowledgeable than students from literature faculties (represented by Economics

and political Science students).

2. Males are more knowledgeable on the crisis than females.

3. All the students either males or females in both faculties saw that the most

consuming sector of water is the agricultural sector, and the most suitable way

to decrease the amount of water that this sector consumes is to change the

irrigation ways.

4. There is no relationship between knowledge of youth and source of information,

also there is an insignificant relationship between knowledge of youth and place

of residence. This indicates a contradiction between what was expected, and what

we concluded.

5. There is an insignificant association between year of the study and having

information which means that year of the study has no effect on knowledge of

youth.

6. Using the logistic model we found that variable gender has an effect on youth

knowledge which indicates that youth awareness may differ from being male or

female.

7. Concerning Faculty of Economics and Political Science, we found that

knowledge of youth differs from department to another from the logistic model.

Conclusion

:

56

Based on the analysis, it is necessary to recommend awareness campaigns for

youth generally and in particular youth in Scientific Faculties in order to increase

their awareness on the crisis.

The following recommendations are based on the responses of the students to

the open ended questions.

1) Economically:

After the Egyptian revolution, there is a desire from all sides to strengthen the

Economic relationships and to invest in Nile Basin countries. Investment is considered

the most suitable solution for this problem, and we may invest in many fields like the

agricultural sector. Since the most important sector in Egypt is the agricultural sector, so

Egypt may invest in this field by sending farmers to these countries, or achieve self

sufficiency of food between these countries by increasing the cultivated lands and

provide them by farmers, machines, and experience.

Some of respondents recommend an Economic integration between these

countries, for example common market and unified currency.

ب١ ز اذي ا ٠ى بن اححبد افش٠م ث االححبد االسب ٠جب ا ٠ى بن حىب الخصبد افش٠م"

".سق شخشو ع افش٠م١ حذ

2) Politically:

Activating the role of the Egyptian diplomacy toward these countries, and starting

negotiation concerning the last treaty, especially when Ethiopian Prime Minister “Meles

Zenawi” said his country would delay the ratification of the Framework treaty for the

overall Nile Basin countries until the Egyptian election of a new parliament, and a new

president in Egypt.

Many of respondents agreed on:

1. It was a political problem, especially the Egyptian foreign policy during the

previous regime which neglected these countries.

2. Some of them recommend a ministry related to African countries to strengthen

their relationships.

Recommendations

57

دي احض حخ ٠ى بن حث١ك البذ ا حى بن صاس خخص ببشئ االفش٠م١ ححذ٠ذا"

".عاللبث ع وبف االصعذ

3. In their opinion” Egypt is not ready for war on water now”, so they don’t prefer

the military intervention in order to solve this problem.

3) Socially:

The third Pope Shenouda Patriarch of

Alexandria had spoken by telephone with the

Patriarch of Ethiopia to find solutions to the

crisis, as the percentage of Christians in

Ethiopia is 62%, followed by Muslims 33%,

and others represent 5%, so the role of the

Egyptian church will appear in the following

period.

It was unexpected situation when the Egyptian delegation traveled to some of the Nile

Basin countries like Uganda and Ethiopia. They received warm welcome at the airport with

traditional Ethiopian folklore troops and Ethiopian officials, in order to pave the road for a better

relationship between these countries. The Egyptian delegation included three presidential

candidates, number of prominent political figures, including Osama Al Ghazaly Harb, the head of

Al Gabha party, Alsayed Elbadawy the head of Al Wafd party, Hussein Ibrahim of the Muslim

Brotherhood, Abdel Hakim Abdel Nasser the son of former president Gamal Abdel Nasser,

journalists ,and representatives from the January 25 Revolution Youth.

When we are talking about social relationships, we found that many of respondents

were not satisfied and recommend " فخح احاس ع دي حض ا١ ١س فمػ ع سخ احىبث

"اشعبب ا٠عب ع اسخ

58

4) The internal water crisis:

Finally we reached that the water crisis in

Egypt is not only an external crisis. Agricultural,

industrial, and household sector need a lot of

campaigns to increase the awareness of the

crisis internally. In addition other sources of

groundwater should be developed such as” Ain

Kayvara “located in the Siwa Oasis .Its water is

considered as one of the purest water in the

world, and it is much pure than Nile River water

because it is at a depth of 1000 meters from the

surface of the earth, as well as the area that

surrounding this well is suitable for agriculture.

In addition to that we may apply the new concepts like “Virtual water” which is the

amount of water needed to produce goods and services .For example to produce one kilo

of meat needs 16000 litter water. So “virtual water trade “can be a mean to increase the

efficiency of water usage, if the country suffers from water scarcity .As it can import the

most water consuming goods and export the least water consuming ones. In Egypt, the

exports of rice is 739.58 thousand tons and this causes a loss of 1718.75 million cubic

meters virtual water, so this concept have to be applied in our water policy, agriculture

policy ,and foreign trade policy.

Respondents saw that agricultural sector consumes approximately 80% of water.

They recommend changing the irrigation ways, importing the crops that consumes huge

amount of water like rice and giving farmers courses to raise the awareness of water

importance and not to be wasted. Concerning the industrial sector they recommend

“Water Recycling, Desalination of sea water, the use of groundwater, and Water pricing”.

وبج بعط اخص١بث ف جبي اضساعت حغ١ش غشق اش اسخ١شاد احبص١ اخ حسخه و١بث وب١شة "

".ا١ب عذ صساعخب، اب ف جبي اصبعت فىبج اخص١بث حسع١ش ا١ب اسخخذا ا١ب اجف١ت

59

i. English References

1. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/375184: Egypt considers promoting cooperation with Nile Basin countries, 26/3/2011

2. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/4-nile-basin-countries-sign-water-agreement: Nile basin countries sign water agreement, 2/11/2010

3. http://allafrica.com/stories/201103020161.html: Nile Basin Countries Hopeful Framework Pact to Be Signed, 25/2/2011

4. http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article137010.ece: Experts discover novel ways to tackle Egypt water crisis, 25/11/2010

5. http://www.custominsight.com/articles/random-sampling.asp: Random Sampling Overview, 12/11/2010

6. http://www.dailyethiopia.com/index.php?aid=770: Nile basin states water Ministers to meet in Ethiopia next week,20/11/2010

7. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/9263/Egypt/Politics-/Egypts-revolution-knocks-Nile-Basin-doors.aspx: Egypt's revolution knocks Nile Basin doors, 22/12/2010

8. http://www.mfa.gov.eg: The Egyptian rights to the Nile waters is an undisputable red line, 11/1/2011

9. http://www.nilebasin-knowledgemap.com/: Nile Basin Knowledge Map,15/4/2011

10. http://www.sis.gov.eg: New phase of cooperation among Nile Basin countries, 11/1/2011

11. http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/3999/how-to-create-an-index: How to create an index, 19/4/2011

List of

References

60

12. http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/principal-components-factor-analysis/:Principal Components and Factor Analysis, 19/4/2011

13. http://washafrica.wordpress.com/2010/07/02/nile-basin-water-crisis-emerging/: Nile basin water crisis emerging, 1/11/2010

ii. Arabic References

14. http://www.ahram.org.eg: السابقإىمال إفريقيا أحد أخطاء النظام , 5/4/2011

15. http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/03/29/143430.html: دول حوض النيل تقترح على 12/5/2011 ,مصر والسودان إنشاء بنك للمياه

16. http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0A440CB2-E035-4868-A34D-6A756FB847B9.htm: 1/5/2011 ,موارد دول حوض النيل المائية واألرضية

17. http://www.al-khayma.com/investigations/egypt_15052010.htm: مصر ودول حوض11/4/2011,األزمة وأسبابيا… النيل

18. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/node/436666: ووثائق . ..أنقى من النيل« كيف ارة»مياه 14/5/2011,تتحدث عن نير في الصحراء الغربية

19. http://www.alwafd.org: آن اآلوان أن نعود للسودان , 5/4/2011 20. http://forum.egypt.com/arforum/E6-8811.html: دول حوض النيل االندوج و , 22/4/2011 21. http://kenanaonline.com/users/belvedere/topics/66890/posts/124789: االتف اقيات

مع دول حوض النيل التي وقعتيا مصر , 15/4/2011 22. http://main.omandaily.om/node/18184 :اتف اقية عنتيبي , 9/4/2011

23. http://www.mfti.gov.eg: تجاره مصر مع التكتالت الجغرافيو , 1/3/2011

24. http://www.shorouknews.com/ContentData.aspx? ID=232238: ازمو مياه النيل مصر 5/11/2010 ,ق لقة من عزلتيا المتزايدة

بيئو حوض النيل-الصراع الدولي علي المياه, 2002يناير,محمد سلمان .25

االقتصاد والعلوم كليو ,2010,(محددات مشاركو الشباب في العمل التطوعي)سماح زكريا احمد عبد الغني .26جامعو الق اىره,السياسيو

61

i. Factor Analysis for constructing an index

recode_s

upportive

_state

recode_influ

enced_state

recode_egypt

_quota

recde_treaty

_year

recode_eg

ypt

_position

recde_st

ates

_number

Mouth

_or_sourc

e

recode_supportive_stat

e

1.000 .417 .212 .230 .112 .074 -.012

recode_influenced_state .417 1.000 .164 .137 .094 .080 -.059

recode_egypt_quota .212 .164 1.000 .335 .243 .246 -.073

recde_treaty_year .230 .137 .335 1.000 .211 .064 .018

recode_egypt_position .112 .094 .243 .211 1.000

recde_states_number .074 .080 .246 .064 .104 1.000 -.106

mouth_or_source -.012 -.059 -.073 .018 -.071 -.106 1.000

Communalities

Initial Extraction

recode_supportive_state 1.000 .696

recode_influenced_state 1.000 .724

recode_egypt_quota 1.000 .580

recde_treaty_year 1.000 .585

recode_egypt_position 1.000 .420

recde_states_number 1.000 .470

mouth_or_source 1.000 .669

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Appendices

62

Total Variance Explained

Component Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings

Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative %

1 1.958 27.977 27.977 1.958 27.977 27.977

2 1.142 16.308 44.285 1.142 16.308 44.285

3 1.043 14.901 59.186 1.043 14.901 59.186

4 .895 12.787 71.973

5 .782 11.165 83.138

6 .612 8.737 91.875

7 .569 8.125 100.000

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Component Matrix

a

Component

1 2 3

recode_supportive_state .184 .813 -.035

recode_influenced_state .029 .844 .100

recode_egypt_quota .714 .156 .213

recde_treaty_year .713 .191 -.199

recode_egypt_position .636 -.026 .122

recde_states_number .313 -.003 .610

mouth_or_source .103 -.064 -.809

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis

Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization

a. Rotation converged in 5 iterations . Component Transformation Matrix

Component 1 2 3

1 .747 .617 .248

2 -.362 .690 -.627

3 .558 -.379 -.738

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser

Normalization.

63

ii. Two independent samples”T-Test”

Group Statistics

gender N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error

Mean

knowledge of youth male 231 1.57 .496 .033

female 120 1.38 .487 .045

Independent Samples Test

Levene's Test for Equality of

Variances

t-test for Equality of Means

F Sig. t df Sig. (2-

tailed)

Mean

Difference

knowledge of youth Equal

variances

assumed

3.529 .061 3.442 348 .001 .191

Equal

variances not

assumed

3.461 2.443E

2

.001 .191

iii. Factor Analysis for Multicollinearity Test

Correlation Matrix

age department residence faculty gender

Correlation Age 1.000 .083 -.119 .193 -.209

department .083 1.000 .086 .788 -.405

residence -.119 .086 1.000 .100 .052

faculty .193 .788 .100 1.000 -.435

gender -.209 -.405 .052 -.435 1.000

Communalities

Initial Extraction

age 1.000 .521

department 1.000 .807

residence 1.000 .632

faculty 1.000 .835

gender 1.000 .528

Extraction Method: Principal Component

Analysis.

64

Total Variance Explained

Component Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared

Loadings

Rotation Sums of Squared

Loadings

Total % of

Variance

Cumulati

ve %

Total % of

Variance

Cumulative

%

Total % of

Varian

ce

Cumulati

ve %

1 2.173 43.460 43.460 2.173 43.460 43.460 2.157 43.146 43.146

2 1.151 23.022 66.482 1.151 23.022 66.482 1.167 23.337 66.482

3 .834 16.676 83.159

4 .638 12.767 95.926

5 .204 4.074 100.000

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Component Matrix

a

Component

1 2

age .326 -.644

department .875 .206

residence .078 .791

faculty .904 .136

gender -.692 .223

Extraction Method: Principal Component

Analysis.

a. 2 components extracted.

Rotated Component Matrix

a

Component

1 2

age .244 -.679

department .893 .096

residence .175 .775

faculty .914 .022

gender -.659 .307

65

Extraction Method: Principal Component

Analysis.

Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser

Normalization.

a. Rotation converged in 3 iterations.

iv. Logistic Model

Case Processing Summary

Unweighted Casesa N Percent

Selected Cases Included in Analysis 315 63.0

Missing Cases 185 37.0

Total 500 100.0

Unselected Cases 0 .0

Total 500 100.0

a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of

cases.

Dependent Variable Encoding

Original Value Internal Value

don't have information 0

having information 1

66

Categorical Variables Codings

Freque

ncy

Parameter coding

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

departm

ent

Statistics 52 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

Economic

s

59 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

Political

Science

49 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

without

major

departme

nt in

FEPS

10 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

Electronic

s &

Communi

cation

Engineeri

ng

37 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

Civil

engineeri

n

42 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

Power &

Electrical

machine

20 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.00

0

.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

Bio 9 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

67

engineeri

ng,Medic

al, &

System

Architectu

re

14 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

Computer

engineeri

ng

2 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

Mechanic

al Power

engineeri

ng

16 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000

Aviation

&

Aerospac

e

engineeri

ng

1 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.00

0

.000 .000 .000

Petroleu

m

engineeri

ng

2 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000

Mechanic

al design

&

1 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.00

0

.000

68

Block 0: Beginning Block

Observed Predicted

knowledge of youth Percentage

Correct don't have

information

having

information

Step 0 knowledge of youth don't have information 0 146 .0

having information 0 157 100.0

Overall Percentage 51.9

a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500

Productio

n

Mining 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000

residenc

e

rural 37 .000

urban 278 1.000

faculty Economic

s and

Political

Science

170 .000

Engineeri

ng

145 1.000

gender male 141 .000

female 174 1.000

69

Variables in the Equation

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Step 0 Constant .075 .115 .423 1 .515 1.078

Variables not in the Equation

a

Score df Sig.

Step 0 Variables gender(1) 13.110 1 .000

Age 6.235 1 .013

residence(1) .700 1 .403

faculty(1) .358 1 .550

department 44.214 14 .000

department(1) .665 1 .415

department(2) 4.879 1 .027

department(3) 2.736 1 .098

department(4) 5.042 1 .025

department(5) 9.048 1 .003

department(6) 1.154 1 .283

department(7) 2.665 1 .103

department(8) 6.236 1 .013

department(9) .003 1 .955

department(10) 4.057 1 .044

department(11) 1.624 1 .203

department(12) .005 1 .944

department(13) 1.624 1 .203

department(14) 1.233 1 .267

a. Residual Chi-Squares are not computed because of redundancies.

Block 1: Method = Enter

Model Summary

Step -2 Log

likelihood

Cox & Snell R

Square

Nagelkerke R

Square

1 351.088a .201 .268

a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 20 because

maximum iterations has been reached. Final solution cannot

be found.

70

eQuestionnair.V

جامعة القاهرة

كلية االقتصاد و العلوم السياسية

قسم االحصاء

ىقبط ذ عشفخ ادساك شجبة جبعخ اىقبشح ىشنيخ

االصخ اىاقعخ ث صش ده حض اىب ف صش

اىو

2010/2011اىغخ

71

: ).......(االسخبسة سل

خاله ز االعزبسح ح طالة ف ميخ االقزصبد اىعي اىغبعخ ، ق ثجع ثببدرغزخذ ثبىطجع ثببد ز االعزبسح عشخ ى 2011/ 2010اىزخشج ىعب العذاد ششع

ف غش اغشاض اىجحث اىعي

أعئيخ شخصخ :األهاىقغ

:اىع -1

)) أث -2 ) ( روش -1

.............................:……………………………اىعش -2

ب طجعخ اىطقخ اىز شبد فب ؟ -3

( )ش احع -2 ( )اش٠ف -1

:اىنيخ -4

( ( )6 5 اسؤا١إ اخم ) س١بس١تالخصبد ع -1

( ) (6اسؤاي إ اخم) ذست -2

اىشعجخ -5

( ) فشسب -3 ( ) اج١ض -2 ( ) عشب -1

).....................................................................( اىزخصص اىشئغ -6

اىذساعخاىغخ -7

( )افشلت اثب١ت -3 ( ) افشلت األ -2 ( ) اعذاد -1

) ( افشلت اشابعت -5 ) ( افشلت اثبثت - 4

72

دس عبئو اإلعال:اىثباىقغ

عيبد ع اص اىب ف صش؟ و ىذل -8

( 11اخم إ اسؤاي ) ( )ال -2 ) ( ع -1

(غح ثزعذد االجبثبد )ب صذس عيبرل ع االص ؟ -9

) ( اصحف -3 ) ( االخشج – 2 ) ( حفض٠ -1

) (األصذلبء -6 ) ( االراعت -5) ( ؤحشاث -4

……………(اروشب)أخش - 7

و قبذ ريل اىعبئو ثبقش اىضع ثشنو مبف ؟ -10

) (ال -3 ( )ب ا حذ - 2 ) ( ع -1

برا رعي ع االص ؟ -11

...........................................................................................................................

................................................................................................................

األصخ اىاقعخ عيبد اىشجبة اىعبخ ع ده حض اىوقبط : اىقغ اىثبىث

ث

........................................................................؟ ب عذد ده حض اىو -12

و صش دىخ صت أ جع؟ -13

) ( بع -2 ) (صب -1

..…………………………ب عذد االرفبقبد اىز رذ ث ده حض اىو؟ -14

.........................................؟متى كانت اخر اتفاقيه تمت بين دول حوض النيل - 15

ارفبقخ رذ ث ده حض اىو؟ب قف صش آخش -16

) ( عبسظت حبب ع و ابد -2) ( افمت حبب ع و ابد -1

( 18 ١17اخم ا اسؤا) ) ( عبسظت ع بعط ابد -3

) (ال اعشف -4

.…………………………….........…اىز ر االخزالف عيب؟ب عذد اىجد -17

73

ب سأل ف اعزشاض صش عي؟ و نل رمش ز اىجد، -18

...........................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................

ب االرفبقخ اىز حذدد حصخ صش ب اىو؟ -19

) ( 1971احفبل١ت - 3) ( 1919احفبل١ت - 2) ( 1959احفبل١ت -1

) (ال اعشف -5) ( 1981احفبل١ت –4

طجقب ىز االرفبق ب حصخ صش اىغ ب اىو ؟ -20

اى

) (

) (

) (

) (

) (

يبس زش نعت 56 50 1

يبس زش نعت 66 60 2

يبس زش نعت 76 70 3

يبس زش نعت 86 80 4

ال اعشف 5

ثئنبب اىزبثشعي حصخ صش رخفضب؟ب اىذىخ اىز -21

) ( اسدا -3) ( أث١ب١ب -2 ) ( و١١ب -1

) (ال اعشف -5) ( اس٠خش٠ب -4

اىغبذح ىصش ده حض اىو ؟ب اىذىخ -22

) ( و١١ب -3 ) (اسدا -2 ) ( أث١ب١ب -1

) (ال اعشف -5) ( أغذا -4

سأ اىشجبة ف اىجبت اىغبع ىز االصخ : اىقغ اىشاثع

ب سأل ف عالقخ صش ثذه حض اىو ؟ -23

74

) ( صش عضت ع دي حض ا١ -3 ) ( خسطت -2 ) (ل٠ت -1

حو أصزب ع ده حض ف اىغبثقخ و أذ افق عي ب قبذ ث اىحنخ اىصشخ -24

اىو؟

) ( افكأ -2 ) (افك بشذة أ -1

) (اعشف ال -4 ) (غ١ش افك -3

و أذ افق عي ب قبذ ث اىذثيبعخ اىصشخ ف حو أصزب ع ده حض اىو؟ -25

) ( افكأ -2 ) (افك بشذة أ -1

) ( ال اعشف - 4 ) ( غ١ش افك -3

و رعزقذ ف سأل اىشخص ثب بك دىخ خبسجخ رؤثش عي ده حض اىو ف شنيزب -26

ع صش؟

) ( حذ ب إ -2 ( 17اسؤاي اخم إ) ) ( ع -1

) (ال اعخمذ ره -3

؟ف سال ب ز اىذىخ -27

) (اص١ -2 ) ( أش٠ىب -1

) ( حشو١ب -4 ) ( إسشائ١ -3

بعجب ىز األصخ؟ حو و رش أ اىزذخو اىعغنش-28

) ( ال -2 (19اخم إ اسؤاي ) ( )ع -1

) ( ال اعشف -4 ) ( حذ ب إ -3

و صش غزعذح ف اىذخه ف حشة عي اىب؟ -29

) ( ال -2 ) ( ع -1

) ( ال اعشف -4 ) ( ره الج ١س ف -3

75

سأ اىشجبة ف حو ز االصخ اىبحخ االقزصبدخ: اىقغ اىخبظ

ده حض اىو عف حو اىشني ؟ فاالعزثبس إو رعزقذ -30

) (ال - 2( 31اسؤاي إاخم ) ) ( ع -1

(غح ثزعذد االجبثبد) ا جبه ؟ ف -31

) ( اصبعت -1 ( 31ي اسؤا إاخم )) ( اضساعت -1

...................اخش -4) ( خذبثا -3

برا ع اسعبه عبى صساع صش ىذه حض اىو ؟ - 32

) ( أافكال -1 ( 33 اسؤاي إاخم )) ( أافك -1

صش ؟ ف اىغنبشني اىزضخ رىل حو ف و ع -33

) (ال اعشف -3 ) ( ال -1 ) (ع -1

حو ز االصخ اىجبت االجزبع سأ اىشجبة ف: اىقغ اىغبدط

و رش ا جذ راصو فنش ث صش ده حض اىو؟ -34

) ( ا حذ ب -1 ) ( ع -1

) ( ال اعشف -4 ) (ال -3

ب سؤزل اىشخصخ ف حو اىشنيخ؟ -35

............................................................................................................

..................................................................................................

قبط إدساك اىشجبة ىزذس ضع اىب ف صش : اىقغ اىغبثع

؟ ف صش اىقطبعبد اعزالمب ىيب أمثش ب -36

) ( ضساعامطبع ا -1

( ) بصي ا -1

( ) صبعامطبع ا -3

76

اىقطبع اىضساع ؟ اىب ف اىحيه ىشني ب – 37

) ( األسص اضسعت اسبحتحم١ -1

( ) ١بث ا١ب اسخخذ ف اضساعاسخ١شاد احبص١ اخبسج خم١ و -1

) ( الريتغير طرق -3

(.......................................اروشب)أخش -4

قطبع اىبصه؟ اىب ف اىحيه ىشني ب -38

) ( حسع١ش ا١ب -1

) ( س اما١ حذ ص٠بد االسخالن -1

) ( خشش١ذ االسخالن اخع١ت ص٠بدة -3

(.......................................اروشب)أخش -4

؟ قطبع اىصبعاىب اىحيه ىشني اىب ف -39

) ( اعاده تدوير المياه -2 ) ( تحليه مياه البحر -1

) ( استخدام المياه الجوفيه -4 ) ( تسعير المياه -3