absa ssa bi-weekly aug 10 2010

8/9/2019 ABSA SSA Bi-weekly Aug 10 2010

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PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 11

EMERGING MARKETS STRATEGY 10 August 20

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BI-WEEKLYRidle Markus

+27 (0)11 895 5374

[email protected]

Dumisani Ngwenya

+27 (0)11 895 5346

[email protected]

www.barcap.com

Currency per

USD

Weekly

close

w/w %

AOA 92.55 0.0

BWP 6.72 0.9GHS 1.43 0.2

KES 79.40 1.0

MUR 29.75 0.7

MZN 36.95 -0.5

NGN 150.40 -0.3

TZS 1522 -0.1

UGX 2198 1.1

ZMK 4865 -0.3

Note: Week-ending 9 August 2010Source: Reuters

Special focus: Kenyans have overwhelmingly voted in favour of the newproposed constitution in a referendum on 4 August. We believe that the positive

referendum outcome has positively affected the countrys risk profile. Zambia: ZMK has further potential to appreciate over the longer term. Nigeria: Elections will be held in January 2011 instead of April. The closer election

date brings much of the election-related risk forward into this year.

Kenya: The Central Bank of Kenya continues in its efforts to boost credit growth.Despite aggressively easing in July, we do not expect further rate cuts.

Markets: Currency performance was mixed in the week with the UGX ending 1.1%firmer against the USD. The Kenyan equity market closed 3.8% higher w/w.

Special focus: Kenyan referendum yes we can

Kenyans have overwhelmingly voted in favour of the new proposed constitution in a

referendum on 4 August, showing a new level of political unanimity. The new

constitution proposes several changes to the structure of government and also

eliminates the position of prime minister, leaving the President as the head of state and

government. Importantly, it also addresses the contentious land reform issue and has

built-in checks and balances to reduce corruption. We believe that the peaceful, free

and fair referendum has positively affected the countrys risk profile, which has been

tarnished following the 2007 post-election violence. As such, we expect an improved

political backdrop ahead of the 2012 general elections, while greater investor

confidence is also likely to positively affect the economy.

Figure 1: Improved political situation is supportive of KES

74

75

7677

78

79

80

81

82

83

Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10

USD/KES

Source: Reuters, Absa Capital

Absa Capital is a division of Absa Bank Limited


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Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital| Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly

10 August 2010 2

Kenya entered a new chapter in its history following the approval of the proposed new

constitution during a referendum on 4 August. The final results, released by Kenyas Interim

Independent Electoral Commission (IIEC) on 6 August, showed that 67% of voters accepted

the new constitution, while the voter turn-out was 72%. The peaceful nature of the

referendum has shown that the country has matured politically, despite the fact that many

of the contentious issues (such as land reforms) are yet to be resolved.

67% of voters voted in

favour of new constitution

Figure 2: Referendum outcome in favour of adopting new constitution

Votes

YES NO

Rejected

votes Votes cast

Total no of

registered

Total 6,092,593 2,795,059 218,633 9,106,627 12,616,627

% of Total 66.9 30.7 2.4 72.2 -

Source: IIEC

Kenyas current constitution was enacted in 1963, when the country gained its

independence from the British, and has been changed several times, the last being 2001.

After further attempts to grow broader democratic reform and despite wide consultation,

voters rejected amendments to the constitution in 2005. The proposed constitution was

rejected by 58% of Kenyan voters following concern over how much power would be

vested in the president, the issue of land reforms and religious courts.

Previous attempt to adopt new

constitution in 2005 failed

The new proposed constitution, which envisages a US-style government, was finally

approved by Parliament on 1 April 2010 before being subjected to a referendum. Apart from

having checks and balances to reduce corruption, the key changes to the new proposed

constitution include:

Several amendments made before

new proposed constitution was

passed by parliament

Government structures government will be increased with the formation of aSenate, consisting of 47 senators and each representing one of the newly formed

demarcated counties. The Senates role will be to protect the interests of the

counties, law-making, debating and approving Bills concerning counties, andoverseeing national revenue among counties.

Devolution of government the establishment of counties means that some of thecentral governments power will be channelled to these counties, which the

government hopes will promote democracy and accountability. The empowered

counties will help with the allocations of state resources, service delivery and the

implementation of planned projects.

Elimination of position of prime minister the position of prime minister was createdin the aftermath of the 2007 political violence. There will now be a president, deputy-

president and the rest of cabinet. The president will therefore be head of state and

government, but, unlike previously, will not be a member of parliament. The

president will be elected directly by registered voters during an election. However,the president will have to get approval from Parliament to appoint cabinet secretaries

(previously the ministers were appointed by the president only).

Land reform the new constitution allows for land, which had been allocated toother parties previously, to be redistributed. The constitution promises the equitable

distribution of land through a national land policy. The 2007 election violence was

partly as a result of land disputes, and the government hopes to address this issue

within the new political setup.

The introduction of a Bill of Rights and a Supreme Court.


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10 August 2010 3

The constitution will only come into effect after the 2012 election but the government will

start working on the formulation of the various laws immediately.

New constitution will come into

effect after 2012 only

The successful referendum has significantly improved the prospects for smooth elections in

2012, thereby improving the countrys political risk profile. That said there remains some element

of political risk as the court case at the International Criminal Court related to the 2007 post-

election violence continues and may still stir emotions over the next 18 months. Notwithstandingthis, the adoption of the new constitution has buoyed financial markets with the KES

appreciating marginally against the USD and the equity market jumping nearly 2% following the

provisional result announcement. Further out, we believe that the peaceful election and the

positive outcome will raise the countrys long-term growth prospects significantly with

investment and tourism (a key FX earner) likely to improve considerably. The US, following a

high-level government delegation to Kenya in June, has promised more investment if the

constitution is accepted, while it may also have a positive impact on donor flows.

Adoption of new constitution is

positive for political risk and long-

term economic outlook

In review

Zambia Higher copper price boosts ZMK

CSO data showed that Zambias trade surplus improved in H1, rising to USD946mn fromUSD519mn in H2 09. The larger trade surplus is the result of a surge in the value of copper

exports, which grew 42% in H1 10 compared with H2 09, which in turn, was the result of

higher copper prices (up 9% in H1 10 compared with H2 09) and output (+11%).

Trade surplus rises in H1

Domestic production developments and our expectation for copper prices suggest that the

outlook for Zambias copper exports remains favourable. In terms of production, FDI injection

into the mining sector has surged this year on the back of the recovery in copper prices and

increased foreign interest. The Zambia Development Agency reported more than USD1.3bn in

FDI inflows in Q1 of which close to half of this amount was towards the mining sector (these

inflows surpassed the total of USD1bn recorded for 2009 as a whole). Owing to the continued

mining investment, the government expects copper production to reach 750,000 metric tonnes

(mt) this year, rising to 1 mn tonnes by 2012. Data for H1 show that the governments target for2010 could be met with production already up 16% y/y at 393,089mt.

Investment in mining

sector increasing

As regards copper prices, our Commodities Research team (see Weekly Commodity

Compendium, 30 July 2010) notes that given the close fundamental link between base metal

prices and economic cycles, there is potential for a large pick-up in base metal flows should

sentiment on the global economic outlook continue to improve. In particular, they point out

copper as one of the metals offering the potential for the strongest price rebound in 2011.

The latest forecasts are for copper prices to average USD6752/ton this year, increasing to

USD7763/ton in 2011.

Positive copper price outlook

Although data availability limits a broader assessment of balance of payment developments,

the H1 trade developments favour a strengthening in Zambias external balances,

supporting the outlook on the kwacha. After breaking below the 5,000/USD level in late July,

the ZMKs rally appears to have fizzled out somewhat. Amid a weaker USD, the kwacha led

the broad-based appreciation in SSA currencies in July, gaining 7% against the USD,

underpinned by an upsurge in copper prices (+13% m/m in July). Although we project the

currency to remain around current levels of 4,900/USD in H2, we believe that the bias is for

a strengthening in the medium term amid a supportive copper outlook.

ZMK to remain just below

5000/USD in H2, with further

potential to strengthen
https://live.barcap.com/go/research/content?contentPubID=FC1620702https://live.barcap.com/go/research/content?contentPubID=FC1620702https://live.barcap.com/go/research/content?contentPubID=FC1620702https://live.barcap.com/go/research/content?contentPubID=FC1620702


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10 August 2010 4

Figure 3: ZMK supported by recent uptick in copper prices

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,0007,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

Copper (USD/t) USD/Z MK (rhs)

Note: Correlation between copper and USD/ZMK: 0.67 (period 2008-2010). Source: Reuters; Absa Capital

Nigeria Elections closer and closerNigerias National Assembly passed the 2010 Electoral Act at the end of July, allowing for

general elections to be held in January 2011. The amendment requires that elections be held

120-150 days before the presidential term expires (compared to the 30-60 days stipulated

previously), allowing any legal disputes to be settled before the newly elected presidents

term commences in May. With the current presidential term ending in May 2011, the

Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced a provisional election date of

between 8 and 15 January. As a result of the date being brought forward, the INEC is set to

run a tight schedule in preparation for the elections. The completion of the voters roll is

expected in November 2010 while parties are expected to provide the Commission with

their list of candidates 60 days before the appointed elections date.

Nigerian elections brought

forward to January, creating

new challenges for

electoral commission

Following the endorsement of the constitutional amendments, the jockeying for position is

likely to intensify in the next few months. In recent weeks, Nigerias Northern Governors

Forum (NGF) quelled part of the uncertainty with regards to incumbent President Goodluck

Jonathans potential candidacy. The NGF noted that wider consultation should take place

within the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as regards the partys zoning agreement,

which requires that the presidential position be rotated between the northern and southern

regions every two terms. President Jonathan is a southerner and based on this ruling, a

northerner should be nominated for next years elections. The NGF accentuated that it was

not a constitutional requirement and also acknowledged the right of President Jonathan and

any other Nigerian to legitimately contest for the office of the president.

No decision of

Jonathans candidacy yet

The closer election date has implications for Nigerian markets as it brings much of the

election-related risk forward into H2 10. Although we expect the NGN to hold steady aroundcurrent levels of 150/USD in H2 on steady oil inflows and support from the central bank, we

caution that the currency could come under pressure should a deterioration in the political

situation ensue. We are concerned about prospects of political and socioeconomic violence

ahead of the elections, particularly given violence during previous elections, existing ethno-

religious contentions and the volatile situation in the Niger Delta.

NGN may come under

pressure late in H2 10


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10 August 2010 5

Kenya CBK seeks stronger credit growth

The Central Bank of Kenya published the extended MPC statement on 2 August, which

provided further details on the committees deliberations on reducing the policy interest rate

by 75bp. The key motivation for the committees decision was the need to encourage

lending. Private sector credit extension rose from 12.2% y/y in April 2009 to 17.7% in April

2010, still well below its highs of around 30% in mid-2008. The MPC noted that although

most commercial banks reduced their base lending rates, the decline in the average lending

rate was only marginal. Moreover, the committee noted that deposit rates (currently 4.45%)

declined by a larger margin since the previous, increasing the interest rate spread. Against

this background, the committee was of the view that commercial banks needed a strong

signal to encourage them to continue providing adequate and affordable credit. The MPC

believes that this will enable the private sector to take advantage of growing opportunities

(particularly if viewed in the context of the formation of the East Africa Community

Common Market) that will further boost the economic recovery.

CBK worried about credit

growth, although credit growth

is ticking higher

Figure 4: Kenyan lending rates lagging policy rate decline

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5


13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

Central bank rate (%) Average lending rate (%, rhs)

Source: CBK, Absa Capital

Although the MPC remains concerned about credit growth, it confirmed that the economic

recovery was on track, noting local market optimism on the growth outlook (the Banks July

Market Survey showed that 83% of private sector participants surveyed expected growth of

above 4.5% this year compared to 59% in January). In terms of consumer prices, the MPC

reiterated that upside risk to inflation remained low, with minimal pressure from

international oil prices and taking into account the low risk to food inflation owing to

significant food stockpiles. July CPI figures showed that headline inflation rose marginally to

3.6% in the month from 3.5% in June.

Upside risk to inflation low

Our view on inflation is largely in line with that of the MPCs. We project inflation to remainin the low single digits in H2, rising steadily going into 2011. In our view, further

improvement in the growth outlook, particularly against the backdrop of the Banks

additional monetary stimulus, is likely to lead the committee to keep the central bank rate at

the current level (6%) going into 2011. The next MPC meeting is expected in September.

We remain optimistic aboutKenyas inflation outlook


6/13


10 August 2010 6

Mauritius Inflation outlook subdued

The Bank of Mauritius published results from its June Inflation Expectations (IES) survey last

week. The latest IES shows that inflation expectations had moderated somewhat from the

April survey. Respondents now expect inflation to average 3.1% y/y, 3.6% and 4.3%,

respectively, for the 12 months to December 2010, June 2011 and December 2011. This

compares to December 2010 and June 2011 averages of 3.8% and 4.5%, respectively, in theprevious survey.

Inflation survey shows subdued

inflation expectations

Our forecasts indicate that inflation may be somewhat higher over the medium term than

detailed in the June IES. We forecast annual average inflation of 3.1%, 4.7% and 6.4% in the

respective periods. Our slightly worse inflation outlook is the result of base effects and

expected stronger domestic demand. Although inflation is currently at comfortable levels

(2.0% y/y in July), the MPC of the Bank of Mauritius noted at its June sitting that there were

upside risks in the medium term, largely on higher imported and wage inflation. The

committee expects inflation to rise to around 4% in the next few quarters, which is broadly

in line with the IES.

We are less optimistic about

inflation outlook

In view of the latest inflation expectations, our view on monetary policy remains unchanged.

Although the IES reaffirms the steady pick-up in inflation in the medium term, we continue

to expect the committee to keep rates steady when it meets on 27 September.

Given benign inflation outlook,

we expect policy rate to

remain unchanged

Figure 5: Mauritius inflation outlook remains positive

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


CPI (% y/y)

Source: CSO

Cte dIvoire Election date set

Prime Minister Soro announced at the end of last week that Cte dIvoire had set 31 October as

the election date the previous deadlines for elections, originally planned for 2005, have all beenmissed due to various reasons, including the incomplete and disputed electoral list.


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10 August 2010 7

Currencies and equities

Figure 6: Foreign exchange rates Figure 7: Equities

Currency

per USD

Weekly close w/w,

%

YTD

%

AOA 92.55 0.0 -3.7BWP 6.72 0.9 -0.8

GHS 1.43 0.2 -0.1

KES 79.40 1.0 -4.5

MUR 29.75 0.7 -0.8

MZN 36.95 -0.5 -23.0

NGN 150.40 -0.3 -0.6

TZS 1522 -0.1 -12.0

UGX 2198 1.1 -13.6

ZMK 4865 -0.3 -4.6

Country Weekly

close

w/w,

%

YTD

%

YTD USD

TR1 %

Botswana Domestic Company 7416.4 -0.4 2.4 1.6Ghana All Share Index 6255.4 -0.6 12.3 12.1

Kenya 20-Share Index 4666.4 3.8 43.7 37.3

Mauritius All Share 1742.9 1.4 4.9 4.1

Nigeria All Share 25647.6 -0.1 23.1 22.4

Tanzania All Share 1172.4 0.1 -1.7 -13.5

Uganda All Share 1066.0 2.9 45.5 25.8

Zambia All Share 2920.5 -0.5 4.5 -0.3

Note: Week ending 9 August 2010. Source: Reuters, Absa Capital Note: 1Total return. Week ending 9 August 2010.


Figure 8: SSA currencies and equities

75

78

81

84

87

90

93

96

99

Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40Angolan Kwanza (USD/ AOA)

Mozambique Metical (USD/ MZN, rhs)

6.25

6.50

6.75

7.00

7.25

7.50

7.75


6,000

6,250

6,500

6,750

7,000

7,250

7,500

7,750

8,000Botswana Pula (USD/ BWP)

BSE - Domestic Company Index (rhs)

1.40

1.42

1.44

1.46

1.48

1.50

1.52


5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500Ghanaian Cedi (USD/ GHS)

GSE - All Share Index (rhs)

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82


2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600

4,000

4,400

4,800Kenyan Shilling (USD/ KES)

NSE 20-Share Index (rhs)

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35


1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800Mauritian Rupee (USD/ MUR)

All Share I ndex (rhs)

145

148

151

154

157

160


20,000

21,500

23,000

24,500

26,000

27,500

29,000Nigerian Naira (USD/ NGN)

Nigeria Index (rhs)

1,280

1,320

1,360

1,400

1,440

1,480

1,520

1,560


1,160

1,180

1,200

1,220

1,240

1,260Tanzanian Shilling (USD/ TZS)

DSE - All Share Index (rhs)

1,850

1,950

2,050

2,150

2,250

2,350


650

725

800

875

950

1,025

1,100

1,175Ugandan Shilling (USD/ UGX)

USE - All Share Index (rhs)

4,400

4,750

5,100

5,450

5,800


2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200Zambian Kwacha (USD/ ZMK)

LUSE - All Share Index (rhs)



8/13


10 August 2010 8

Economic data

Figure 9: Policy rates

Country Current (%)

Cumulative since

Jan 2009 (bp) Last move Next move expected (bp)

Angola 30.00 +1043 01 Oct 09 (+500) 2011 and beyondBotswana 10.00 -500 18 Dec 09 (-50) 2011 and beyond

Ghana 13.50 -350 16 Jul 10 (-150) 2011 and beyond

Kenya 6.00 -250 28 Jul 10 (-75) 2011 and beyond

Mauritius 5.75 -100 26 Mar 09 (-100) +25 in H1 11

Mozambique 14.50 0 10 June 10 (+200) 2011 and beyond

Namibia 7.00 -300 17 Jun 09 (-50) 2011 and beyond

Nigeria 6.00 -375 07 Jul 09 (-200) 2011 and beyond

Note: No policy rates available for Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia as monetary policy is conducted through open market operations.Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, central banks, Absa Capital

Figure 10: Consumer price inflation, % y/y Figure 11: FX reserves, USD bn (eop)

Country Dec 08 Dec 09 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10

Angola 13.2 14.0 13.9 13.7

Botswana 13.7 5.8 7.8 7.7

Ghana 18.1 16.0 10.7 9.5

Kenya* 17.8 5.3 3.9 3.5 3.6

Mauritius 6.7 1.5 2.5 2.4 2.0

Mozambique 6.2 4.2 12.7 14.5 16.1

Namibia 10.9 7.0 4.7 4.3

Nigeria 15.1 12.0 11.0 10.3

Tanzania 13.5 12.2 7.9 7.2

Uganda 14.2 11.0 4.3 4.2 3.2

Zambia 16.6 9.9 9.1 7.8 8.4

Country Dec 08 Dec 09 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10

Angola 18.4 13.2 15.7 15.9 15.8

Botswana 9.1 8.7 8.3 7.9

Ghana 2.0 3.2 3.4 3.4

Kenya 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.4

Mauritius 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9

Mozambique 1.6 1.7 1.6

Namibia 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.7

Nigeria 52.7 42.4 40.3 38.8 37.4

Tanzania 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.2

Uganda 2.3 2.8 2.7

Zambia 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2

Note: *Based on NBSs geometric CPI calculation from December 2008 onwards.Source: Statistics offices, central banks, Absa Capital

Source: Central banks, IFS, Absa Capital

Figure 12: Real GDP, % y/y

Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E Q4 09 Q1 10

Angola 3.3 11.2 20.6 18.6 23.3 13.8 2.4

Botswana 6.3 6.0 1.6 5.1 4.8 3.1 -3.7 10.7 36.4

Ghana 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.4 5.7 7.3 4.7

Kenya 2.9 5.1 5.9 6.3 7.0 1.6 2.6 3.3 4.4Mauritius 4.4 5.5 1.2 3.9 5.5 5.1 2.1 6.7 4.1

Mozambique 6.5 7.9 8.4 8.7 7.3 6.8 6.4 7.0 9.5

Namibia 4.2 12.3 2.5 7.1 5.5 3.3 -0.8

Nigeria 9.6 6.6 6.5 6.0 6.4 6.0 6.7 7.4 7.2

Tanzania 6.9 7.8 7.4 6.7 7.1 7.4 6.0 5.9

Uganda 6.2 5.8 10.0 7.0 8.2 8.3 4.8

Zambia 5.1 5.4 5.3 6.2 6.2 5.7 6.4

Source: Central banks, statistics offices, IMF WEO, Absa Capital


9/13


10 August 2010 9

Auction results

Figure 13: Latest auction results

Country Date Tenor Yield (%)Previous

yield (%)

Amount offered

(mn, local

currency)

Amount

allocated (mn,

local currency)

Bid/cover ratioDate of next

auction1

Angola 2010/06/09 91 17.79 17.79 AOA 978 2010/08/11

182 18.65 18.37 AOA 2 896

364 20.52 20.40 AOA 7 015

Botswana 2010/08/03 91 6.96 6.97 BWP 3 189 BWP 3 189 1.0 2010/09/07

Ghana 2010/08/06 91 12.80 12.79 GHS 168 (Total) GHS 168 (Total) 2010/08/13

182 13.28 13.35

364 13.50 13.60

Kenya2 2010/07/29 91 1.70 1.73 KES 5 000 KES 5 104 1.0 2010/08/12

2010/08/05 182 2.00 2.00 KES 6 000 KES 3 651 0.6

2010/06/09 364 4.20 6.09 KES 4 000 KES 3 953 4.3

Mauritius 2010/08/06 91 2.84 3.01 MUR 700 (Total) MUR 324 4.8 2010/08/13

182 3.22 3.46 MUR 250

364 3.69 3.92 MUR 126

Mozambique 2010/08/04 91 13.10 13.11 MZN 20 2010/08/11

182 13.75 13.63 MZN 10

364 14.23 14.20 MZN 30

Namibia3 2010/08/05 91 6.59 6.77 NAD 150 NAD 150 1.9 2010/08/12

2010/08/04 182 6.64 6.87 NAD 150 NAD 150 2.9

2010/07/29 364 7.08 7.34 NAD 100 NAD 100 2.1

Nigeria 2010/07/29 91 2.92 2.92 NGN 15 000 NGN 15 000 3.3 2010/08/11

182 4.08 4.08 NGN 40 000 NGN 40 000 2.8

2010/07/01 364 4.84 4.06 NGN 50 000 NGN 50 000 1.9

Seychelles 2010/08/06 91 1.81 1.87 SCR 7.5 2010/08/13

182 2.53 2.72 SCR 8.8

364 4.09 4.07 SCR 8.8

Tanzania 2010/08/04 91 2.90 3.09 TZS 45 000 TZS 45 000 2.2 2010/08/18

182 3.74 3.89 TZS 35 000 TZS 112 429 3.2

364 5.98 6.15 TZS 30 000 TZS 66 377 4.3

Uganda3 2010/07/28 91 4.26 4.28 UGX 15 000 UGX 15 000 1.9 2010/08/11

182 4.94 4.78 UGX 25 000 UGX 25 000 1.6

364 5.16 5.53 UGX 40 000 UGX 40 000 2.5

Zambia 2010/08/05 91 5.54 5.17 ZMK 20 000 ZMK 20 000 1.4 2010/08/12

182 7.75 7.37 ZMK 20 000 ZMK 19 300 1.0

364 8.27 8.86 ZMK 40 000 ZMK 40 000 2.6

Note: 1Official auction date to be announced/confirmed by central bank; 2cut-off interest rates; and 3 effective yields.

Source: Central banks, Reuters, Barclays, Absa Capital


10/13


10 August 2010 10

Short-term rates charts

Figure 14: Short-term rates

Angola

4

9

14

19

24

29

34

Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10

Rediscount rat e

91-day

182-day

Botswana

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

Bank Rate

BoBC Rate (91-day)

`

Ghana

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33


Pr im e rat e 182-da y 91-da y

Kenya

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Central Bank Rate

91-day

182-day

Mauritius

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Repo Rate 182-day

364-day

Mozambique

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


FPC 91-day

182-day

Namibia

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13


Repo rate

91-day

364-day

Nigeria

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Monetary Policy Rate

182-day

91-day

Seychelles

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36

Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Ja n-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

91-day 182-day

364-day

Tanzania

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17


91-day

182-day

364-day

Uganda

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19


91-day 182-day

364-day

Zambia

0

5

10

15

20

25


91-day 182-day

364-day

Source: Central banks, Reuters, Barclays, Absa Capital


11/13


10 August 2010 11

EMERGING EMEA RESEARCH ANALYSTS

ABSA CAPITAL

Jeff GableHead of Research

ABSA Capital

+27 (0) 11 895 [email protected]

Ian MarsbergMacro Strategist+27 11 895 5374

[email protected]

Jeffrey SchultzMacro Strategist+27 11 895 5349

[email protected]

Ridle MarkusAfrica Strategist+27 11 895 [email protected]

Dumisani NgwenyaAfrica Strategist+27 11 895 [email protected]

Judy PadayacheeTechnical Strategist+27 11 895 [email protected]

Divya VasantCredit Analyst+ 27 11 895 [email protected]

Bulent BadshaSouth Africa Strategist+27 11 895 [email protected]

Gina SchoemanMacro Economist+27 11 895 [email protected]

BARCLAYS CAPITAL

Piero Ghezzi

Head of Global Economics, EmergingMarkets and FX Research+44 (0)20 3134 2190

[email protected]

Matthew Vogel

Head of Emerging EMEA Research+44 (0)20 7773 [email protected]

Koon Chow

Senior FX Strategist+44 (0)20 777 [email protected]

George ChristouEM Strategist+44 (0)20 7773 1472

[email protected]

Toni Dang+44 (0)20 313 [email protected]

Daniel HewittSenior Emerging EMEA Economist+44 (0)20 3134 3522

[email protected]

Christian KellerChief Economist Emerging Europe+44 (0)20 7773 [email protected]

Andreas KolbeCredit Strategist+44 (0)20 313 [email protected]

Alia MoubayedSenior Economist Middle East &

North Africa+44 (0)20 313 41120

[email protected]

Vladimir Pantyushin

Russia and CIS Chief Economist+7 495 78 68450

vladimir.pantyushin @barcap.com

Eldar Vakhitov

Junior EMEA Economist+44 (0)20 777 [email protected]


12/13

Analyst Certification(s)

We, Ridle Markus and Dumisani Ngwenya, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about

any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

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