accelerating global vehicle efficiency

8/12/2019 Accelerating Global Vehicle Efficiency

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Based on analysis and collaboration with the International Council on Clean Transportation and the FIA Founda

Accelerating GlobalVehicle Efficiency

By Cecilia Springer, Pete Ogden, Nigel Purvis,

and Andreas Dahl-Joergensen June 2014


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Accelerating GlobalVehicle Efficiency

By Cecilia Springer, Pete Ogden, Nigel Purvis,

and Andreas Dahl-Joergensen June 2014

Based on analysis and collaboration with the International Council on Clean Transportation

and the FIA Foundation


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1 Introduction and summary

3 Why vehicle efficiency matters

7 The policy context

10 Potential opportunities and obstacles to implementatio

15 The path forward: An opportunity for U.S. global leader

22 Recommendations and conclusion

24 Endnotes

Contents


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1 Center for American Progress | Accelerating Global Vehicle Efficiency

Introduction and summary

Te U.S. governmen should lead a global effor o improve vehicle efficiency

hrough more sringen, long-erm uel-economy sandards or cars and rucks.

Doing so would align ineress in economic growh, energy securiy, public healh,

and climae proecion across a wide range o counries.

Oil consumpion rom road ranspor is increasing rapidly, conribuing o

increased emissions, especially in developing counries.1Many counries already

have efficiency policies o manage uel consumpion, bu hese policies need o bescaled up and expanded across a wider range o vehicles. Forunaely, consumer

and indusry accepance o vehicle-efficiency policies is growing, paving he way

or world leaders o se more ambiious efficiency sandards.

Improved vehicle-efficiency policies are a poliical opporuniy or world lead-

ers. Leaders should conclude a nonbinding global agreemen o increase he rae

o efficiency improvemen in vehicles. Leaders could srike his agreemen a a

number o upcoming global venues, including he U.N. Secreary-Generals 2014

Climae Summi and he 2014 G-20 Leaders Summi.

An agreemen among all major economies is possible bu may prove challenging

or move slowly due o he differences in domesic policies and regional markes

beween counries. In he meanime, he Unied Saes should pave he way or

a global agreemen on vehicle efficiency by negoiaing bilaeral deals wih key

counries such as China, India, and Mexico. Tanks o new sandards adoped

during he Obama adminisraion, he Unied Saes is now he world leader in

uel-economy sandards or cars and rucks,2and i should help oher counries

ramp up heir own vehicle-efficiency policies hrough bilaeral agreemens.

Doing so would demonsrae ha vehicle efficiency has many benefis or hesenaionssome o he worlds larges vehicle markesand could inspire oher

counries o join a global agreemen.


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In order o improve vehicle efficiency worldwide, global leaders should pursue he

ollowing mulilaeral acions:

Announce a leader saemen o ineresed counries a he U.N. Secreary-

Generals Climae Summi in Sepember.

Conclude a srong G-20 leaders saemen wih vehicle-efficiency goals. Forge a mulicounry alliance on vehicle efficiency wihin he Climae and

Clean Air Coaliion and oher mulilaeral venues.

Addiionally, he Unied Saes should pursue bilaeral agreemens wih he ol-

lowing counries:

China, o improve ruck efficiency hrough 2025. India, o expand efficiency sandards o cover more ypes o vehicles and

improve uel qualiy.

Mexico, o harmonize efficiency sandards or cars and exending sandardsor rucks.

Tese agreemens would demonsrae U.S. leadership while bringing significan

benefis o he involved counries. A he same ime, hey would help pave he way

or a global agreemen by demonsraing he benefis o early acion on vehicle

efficiency, including economic growh, energy securiy, improved healh, and

reduced climae impac.


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Why vehicle efficiency matters

Few policies nealy align ineress in economic growh and susainabiliy across

a wide range o counries. Ye, promoing vehicle efficiency3mees boh o

hese needs and more. Improving vehicle efficiency simulaneously benefis he

economy, energy securiy, public healh, and he climae.

The economy

Increased vehicle uel efficiency saves consumers and businesses money by reduc-

ing uel coss. Meanwhile, designing and manuacuring vehicles o mee new

uel-economy sandards could spur job growh in he manuacuring and clean

echnology secors. Te Global Fuel Economy Iniiaive, or GFEI, has esimaed

ha improved uel-economy policies or new passenger cars4could simulae $3

rillion in new vehicle echnology invesmens and creae $5 rillion in global sav-

ings on uel coss beween now and 2025. Tis would lead o poenial ne savings

o $2 rillion or he worlds drivers.5

Te Obama adminisraions new efficiency sandards are a case in poin. Tese

sandards will save consumers an esimaed $1.7 rillion in uel coss by 2025.6

In addiion, he firs phase o new U.S. uel-efficiency sandards proposed or

rucks ha wil l go ino effec or 2014 hrough 2018 will save consumers $50

billion a he pump.7

Esablishing long-erm uel-economy requiremens also provides he regulaory

cerainy needed or auomakers o inves in job-boosing efficiency echnology.

For example, he new U.S. uel-economy sandard or passenger cars will creae an

esimaed 50,000 new auo manuacuring jobs, ou o a oal 570,000 jobs gener-aed by 2030. Tese sandards creae jobs by saving drivers money on ranspora-

ion uel coss and allowing hem o spend ha money elsewhere.8In addiion,

markeing more efficien, low-cos vehicles will bolser he compeiiveness


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o individual auomakers by allowing hem o atrac consumers who are cos-

conscious abou he price o a car as well as is uel. Finally, manuacuring more

efficien cars can insulae auomakers rom gasoline price shockssuch as he

seep price increases seen in 2009which cause consumers o shif heir spend-

ing away rom less efficien vehicles.9

Energy security

Fuel-efficiency sandards can improve energy securiy by reducing dependence on

oreign oil impors, which play an ousized role in many naions rade deficis. For

example, oil impors accouned or more han hal o Indias 2013 rade defici.10

Chinawhose rapid growh has already made i he worlds larges car markeis

also highly relian on impored oil.11Te ransporaion secor is currenly respon-

sible or more han 40 percen o Chinas oil consumpion, and i will consume

wo-hirds o Chinas oil by 2035.12Spurred by a rapid growh in oil impors in2000, he Chinese governmen began drafing is firs uel-economy sandards,

which were issued in 2004.13Tese uel-economy sandards have reduced gaso-

line demand by 1 percen each year since hen.14Te Unied Saeshe worlds

larges imporer o oilalso issued new passenger car uel-efficiency sandards in

2012 ha will reduce U.S. oil consumpion a an almos idenical rae.15

Public health

Air polluion is a serious public healh issue across he world, in large par due

o vehicle polluion rom ailpipe emissions. Te mos harmul ypes o vehicle

air polluion are pariculae mater, nirogen oxides, and sulur dioxide. Diesel-

powered vehicles and rucks are he larges conribuors o such emissions.

Te World Healh Organizaion, or WHO, recenly esimaed ha air polluion

causes 7 million premaure deahs across he world each year, 2.6 million o which

are caused by oudoor air polluion.16Air polluion causes nearly 2 million deahs

per year in China alone,17and i has shorened lie expecancy by more han hree

years in Delhi.18

Beyond direc loss o lie, oher healh effecs o air polluion suchas chronic respiraory illness damage overall welare by reducing he produciviy

o he populaioncosing up o $300 billion per year in China.19


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While air polluion is wors in he ases-growing emerging economies, i is

also a significan problem in he Unied Saes and Europe. ransporaion is a

major source o air polluion in he Unied Saes, causing respiraory problems

and increasing he incidence o cancer and oher long-erm diseases.20Paris, or

example, banned hal o he passenger cars rom he roads in March o hal vehicle

air polluion afer five consecuive days o dangerous air polluion levels.21

I is imporan o noe ha vehicular air polluion depends largely on uel qualiy

and emission sandards, no jus on he uel economy o vehicles. Tus, vehicle-

efficiency policies should be paired wih clean uel and emission sandards ha

regulae he level o harmul polluans, such as sulur, in uel and ailpipe emis-

sions in order o capure he maximum benefi o new efficiency sandards.

Climate change

Te ransporaion secor currenly accouns or one-quarer o greenhouse gas

emissions. Tese emissions are growing a a aser rae han any oher secor

wih a ul l 80 percen o ha growh coming rom road vehicles.22Tis rend

has promped groups such as he GFEI o advocae or a global arge o 50

percen reducions in new car uel use by 2030 compared o 2005 levels and a

50 percen reducion o he global vehicle flee by 2050.23Tese arges have

also been proposed as par o he new Susainable Developmen Goalshe

global developmen goals ha naions are negoiaing o replace he Millennium

Developmen Goals afer 2015. Reaching he 2050 goal would preven an esi-

maed 33 billion ons o carbon dioxide emissions cumulaively beween 2015

and 2050.24Tis makes up nearly 3 percen o he required global soluion o

climae change during his period.25

Oher vehicle echnologies, such as uel cell and elecric cars, can also reduce

emissions. Bu upron invesmen in hese echnologies is currenly a barrier o

wider deploymen. While ransiioning o batery- or uel-cell-powered vehicles

will have emissions benefis in he long erm, efficiency sandards are he single

mos imporan soluion or reducing emissions rom vehicles now. In he

Inernaional Energy Agency policy scenario designed o limi global warmingo 2 degrees, uel-economy measures make up nearly hal o reduced demand by

2050 and are he primary climae soluion prior o 2035.26


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Tus, emissions reducions rom vehicle efficiency are a key componen o

naional sraegies o hal climae change. Tis holds rue or he Unied Saes,

where he Obama adminisraions new uel-efficiency sandards will have elimi-

naed 6 billion ons o carbon dioxide emissionsmore han he oal U.S. emis-

sions in 2013by 2025.27

aken ogeher, he benefis o vehicle-efficiency policies or he economy, energy

securiy, public healh, and he climae make such policies atracive o many

counries. Given he baseline appeal o hese policies, he nex secion analyzes

he marke rends and poliical orces shaping progress on vehicle efficiency.


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The policy context

What are the market trends?

Te markes or boh passenger vehicles and heavier reigh vehicles are expand-

ing rapidly. Mos o he growh comes rom emerging economies, such as India

and China, which accouned or 60 percen o vehicle sales profis in 2012.28

China is and wil l likely remain or some ime he worlds larges marke or

vehicle sales. W hile wealhier areas on Chinas easern coas could reach saura-

ion in vehicle ownership by 2020, sales will coninue o soar in less-developedinerior regions, especially as Chinas road inrasrucure coninues o expand

wesward.29In oher counries, auo manuacuring is expanding alongside sales.

Mexicos auo indusry has grown a a rae o 6 percen each year, riple he

growh rae o oher manuacuring secors here.30

A he same ime, his growh in he ransporaion secor, largely driven by

vehicle sales, is ransorming he global oil marke. Te ransporaion sec-

or accouns or some 75 percen o he growh in oal projeced oil demand

by 2035. Oil use in he ranspor secor will grow five-old over he nex wo

decades, mosly driven by consumpion in China, India, and he Middle Eas.

China is on course o surpass he Unied Saes as he larges oil consumer by

2030, and India will ake over as he larges source o oil demand growh by

2020, wih an average increase in demand o 3.6 percen per year. Diesel uel

will see he greaes increase in demand, reflecing uel preerences and he rapid

growh o he reigh secor in emerging economies.31


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What efficiency policies are currently in play?

Domesic uel-economy sandards or cars covered abou hree-quarers o all cars

sold globally in 2013. However, hese sandards represen a wide range o emis-

sions limis and have various compliance daes, rendering many o hem insu-

ficien o subsanially limi emissions or uel consumpion. Curren efficiency

sandards are on pace o improve global uel economy by 1.7 percen per year

hrough 2015 and hen decline o abou 1 percen per year rom 2016 o 2020.

o pu his in perspecive, meeing he GFEI 50 by 50 argewhich ses a goal

o halving uel use across he global passenger car flee by 2050will require an

average 3 percen annual global improvemen in uel economy or cars.32

For rucks, efficiency sandards are in a much earlier sage o developmen.

Currenly, only he Unied Saes, Canada, China, and Japan have uel-efficiency

sandards or rucks, alhough numerous counries, including Mexico, he

European Union, Brazil, and Korea are considering hem.33

Global oil demand by region Global oil demand by sector

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2012 2020 2025 2030 20

FIGURE 1

The transportation sector in Asia will drive global oil demand

Projected increase in global oil demand, 20122035, in millions of barrels per day

Bunkers, or marineand aviation fuel

Oceania

Europe

Americas

Other

Buildings

Other industries

Petrochemicals

Power generation

Transport

Eastern Europe and Eurasia

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

Asia

80

100

87.4

60

40

20

0

Source: International Energy Agency, "World Energy Outlook" (2013).

101.4 87.4 10


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In addiion o uel-economy sandards or cars and rucks, he carbon inensiy o

he uel plays an imporan role in deermining overall carbon emissions. Differen

sources o uel have differen carbon conen, so racking o uel carbon inen-

siy is also an imporan sep oward uure improvemens in vehicle efficiency.

Currenly, Caliornia and he European Union are racking carbon inensiy o

uels and deploying policies o discourage invesmens in high-carbon ossil uelsand o accelerae deploymen in low-carbon alernaives.

TABLE 1

Comparing vehicle sales and efficiency standards by country

Region

Share of world

vehicle sales

Car- ef ficie nc y standards Truck- eff icienc y standards

2015 2020 2015 2020

China 25%

European Union 20%

United States 19%

Japan 7%

Brazil 5%

India 5%

Russia 4%

Canada 2%

South Korea 2%

Australia 1%

Mexico 1%

Other 9%

= Policies in place = No policies

Source: International Council on Clean Transportation, Global passenger vehicle standards, available at http://www.theicct.org/info-tools/global-passenger-vehicle-

standards (last accessed May 2014).
http://www.theicct.org/info-tools/global-passenger-vehicle-standardshttp://www.theicct.org/info-tools/global-passenger-vehicle-standardshttp://www.theicct.org/info-tools/global-passenger-vehicle-standardshttp://www.theicct.org/info-tools/global-passenger-vehicle-standards


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Potential opportunities and

obstacles to implementation

While he benefis o enhanced vehicle uel efficiency o he economy, energy

securiy, public healh, and he climae are well documened, obsacles o imple-

menaion sill remain ha need o be addressed.

Consumer acceptance

While consumers can save money over he liespan o a uel-efficien vehicle com-pared wih a sandard vehicle, one poenial obsacle o uel-economy sandards

is consumers willingness o make he upron invesmen in more cosly vehicles.

Forunaely, here is clear evidence ha consumer accepance is no a significan

obsacle o he adopion o sringen uel-economy sandards in mos counries.

Consumer willingness o pay or uel economy is increasing.34In he Unied Saes,

37 percen o consumers raed uel economy as he leading acor in heir choice

o heir nex car, compared wih 17 percen who chose qualiy and 16 percen who

chose saey.35In India, one sudy ound ha a majoriy o consumers atach even

greaer imporance o uel economy in heir vehicle-purchasing decisions han

simple economics would sugges.36Since 2006, uel economy has consisenly

ranked among he op hree prioriies or car buyers in India.37

Moreover, consumer demand or efficien vehicles is growing. In maure mar-

kes, consumers srongly suppor uel-economy sandards wih 85 percen o

Americans supporing Presiden Barack Obamas laes uel-economy sandards

or cars.38In emerging economies, consumers are increasingly aware o ranspora-

ion exernaliies such as air polluion and are demanding more inormaion on

he uel economy o he vehicles hey are considering.

Effecive policies can also simulae greaer consumer demand or efficien vehi-

cles. Tese policies include beter labeling and communicaion o liecycle con-

sumer savings, as well as economic incenives o help reduce differences in upron

cos hrough so-called eebae programs. Tese programs impose ees on highly


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polluing vehicles, and rebaes are issued or he mos efficien vehicles. Following

he implemenaion o Frances eebae program in 2008, he average vehicle size

in France decreased significanly, and carbon dioxide emissions dropped 6 percen

across he flee. As a resul, he French vehicle marke weahered he economic

downurn beter han comparable markes.39

Consumers play a large role in simulaing demand or more efficien vehicles.

Tis demand can drive invesmen in more efficien echnologies by auomakers.

Bu he ineress o he auo indusry are also an imporan par o he vehicle-

efficiency equaion.

Industry acceptance

While here is widespread recogniion ha uel-efficiency improvemens are

essenial or compeiiveness in an increasingly global marke, new efficiency san-dards will no always be me wih suppor rom he auo indusry. Companies ha

are unable o comply wih rapid uel-economy increases or ha compee in he

lowes cos markes will see hemselves as disadvanaged by rising uel-economy

sandards. ypically, hese auomakers operae in emerging economies and ear

having o buy expensive Wesern echnology o comply wih sandards.

Ye, many counries, including emerging economies, have managed o garner

suppor rom indusry or uel-efficiency sandards. Developing counries have

used innovaive, flexible compliance mechanisms o ensure ha efficiency policies

are simulaing innovaion in heir domesic markes. Te Brazilian Inovar-Auo

program, or example, inroduced a ax on passenger cars and ligh commercial

vehicles bu, a he same ime, provides equivalen ax discouns or auomakers

ha mee cerain efficiency guidelines. Te program will oser innovaion and

reduce uel consumpion in Brazil by abou 15 percen by 2017.40In addiion,

domesic auomakers in emerging economies are increasingly paraking in join

venures wih Wesern auomakers ha have he capaciy, echnological experise,

and poliical will o pursue vehicle efficiency.

Despie a lack o coordinaed global uel-efficiency policies, here has been someconvergence in efficiency improvemens across markes due o he globally iner-

conneced supply chains o major auomakers. All Organisaion or Economic

Co-operaion and Developmen, or OECD, markes, or example, improved

vehicle efficiency by beween 16 percen and 18 percena rae o nearly 2

percen per yearbeween 2002 and 2011.41Addiionally, counries wih a high


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share o impored cars or car pars end o adop he mos-advanced efficiency

improvemens wihin only a ew years ime.42In conras, here is a greaer ime

lag or efficiency discrepancy in markes wih significan domesic producion

primarily or he lowes-cos segmens o domesic markes, such as aa in India,

Lada in Russia, and Wuling in China. Tese findings sugges ha a saged, bila-

eral approach o encourage key markes o adop efficiency sandards can havea significan impac wihin he involved counries, as well as pave he way or a

broader mulilaeral agreemen.

Te compeiiveness o domesic versus oreign companies plays a key role in

geting poliical suppor or new sandards, bu he disincion beween domesic

and oreign is no sraighorward. Te auo indusries in emerging economies

are increasingly inegraed wih oreign auomakers, especially auomakers in he

Unied Saes, Europe, and Japan ha are more supporive o uel-economy san-

dards due o heir echnological advanage or experience wih sandards adoped

in oher key markes.

In China, or example, mos domesic auomakers parner wih inernaional

firms o exchange marke access or echnological experise, a patern ha has

persised or several decades. During he Culural Revoluion, China haled pro-

ducion o cars. While promoing reorm and opening in he 1980s, he Chinese

governmen encouraged join venures wih oreign auomakers o fill he

vacuum o domesic research and developmen capaciy.43Te mos prominen

example o such join venures is he SAIC-General Moors-Wuling Auomobile

parnership in souhwesern China, which sells nearly 1.5 million cars in China

annually. SAIC-GM-Wuling is now expanding ino he Indian marke hrough

oher join venures and even ull acquisiions o Indian manuacurers.44

Currenly, China aces a very large echnology gap beween domesic-only manu-

acurers and companies in join venure manuacures. As a resul, join venure

manuacurers are driving uel economy in China.45

Spurred by an increasingly conneced global markeplace, he auo indusry is

growing progressively ambiious on uel economy. Bu, as discussed above, many

counries have uel-economy sandards or cars bu no rucks. Ye rucks are he

vehicle class wih he ases growh, and ruck efficiency could yield he greaesbenefis associaed wih reduced uel consumpion.


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Challenges and opportunities for trucks

New sandards or rucks could deliver he greaes reducions in uel consump-

ion globally, paricularly in developing counries. rucks use disproporionaely

more uel han cars per mile raveled. While rucks are responsible or 20 percen

o road ranspor emissions in developed counries, hey can accoun or as muchas 60 percen in developing counries.46

Alhough here is a clear opporuniy or progress, paricularly in emerging mar-

kes, many counries have sandards or cars bu no rucks. Te Unied Saes only

adoped is firs uel-efficiency sandards or rucks in 2011, and jus hree oher

counriesChina, Japan, and Canadacurrenly have heir own ruck sandards.

Even he European Union has ye o issue ruck sandards. Many sakeholders are

eager o leverage U.S. progress o promoe harmonizaion o sandards across he

world, bu his will require significan poliical persuasion.

Tere are clear hurdles or improving he uel economy o rucks. Firs, ruck

manuacurers are no beholden o consumer preerences or efficien, clean

vehicles. rucks are ofen operaed by small commercial flees, which may lag

behind privae consumers and large car auomakers in erms o undersanding he

benefis o vehicle efficiency. In addiion, such flees may have less access o capial

or upron invesmens in efficiency.47

Despie hese obsacles, here are reasons o believe ha improved sandards or

rucks are poliically easible.

Firs, ruck markes in emerging economies are increasingly inernaional.

Hisorically, local manuacurers have dominaed Chinas heavy-duy flee. In he

pas five years, however, oreign manuacurers have peneraed Chinas rapidly

growing ruck marke by parnering wih domesic manuacurers in join ven-

ures similar o hose o he passenger car marke. Conversely, Chinese ruck

manuacurers are now looking oward expor markes.48In India, Volvo has begun

o manuacure is mos efficien ruck engines. Greaer inegraion wih he

inernaional marke could help spur he sronger Chinese ruck sandards or he

adopion o new sandards in India. Jus as wih cars, ruck manuacurers have anincreasing sensiiviy o inernaional uel-economy sandards.


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Second, he prolieraion o so-called green reigh programs is esablishing an

imporan oundaion or uure sandards. Such programs collec exensive daa

on flees and echnologies o inorm bes pracices or improving ruck efficiency.

Green reigh programs aim o use public-privae parnerships raher han regula-

ion o simulae improved ruck efficiency. Daa sharing via hese programs can

help aciliae he adopion o ruck sandards in oher counries. In many cases,his daa has never been examined beore. Green reigh programs can accelerae

adopion o efficien echnologies, such as low rolling resisance ires and aero-

dynamic devices. Tese programs ensure ha he daa and echnology needed

o implemen uel-economy sandards or rucks are in place. Parners ha are

adminisraing green reigh programs include he Climae and Clean Air Coaliion,

Clean Air Asia, he Energy Foundaion, he World Bank, he German Inernaional

Cooperaion, and he U.S. Environmenal Proecion Agency, or EPA.

Consumer demand and indusry accepance or efficien vehicles are increasing.

Te inernaionalized marke means ha even ruck manuacurerswhich areno direcly subjec o consumer demandhave more access o efficiency-con-

scious markes and new efficiency echnologies. Tese rends are paving he way

or sronger policies on vehicle efficiency. Now, poliical leadership is needed o

move hese policies orward.


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The path forward: An opportunity

for U.S. global leadership

Te Unied Saes is currenly well posiioned o lead an inernaional effor o

increase vehicle efficiency. Is recenly enaced, robus uel-economy sandards

and clean uel sandards make i a global leader in his area. U.S. sandards or cars

require improvemens hrough 2025he longes-erm sandard o any coun-

ry excep Canada. In addiion, he adminisraion will issue a new ruck uel-

efficiency sandard by March 2016 ha exends regulaions beyond he curren

2018 imeline. Now is he momen or he Unied Saes o ranslae his domesic

leadership ino inernaionally coordinaed acion.

Near-term opportunities for an international deal

Inernaional progress on vehicle efficiency will ulimaely depend on inerna-

ional poliical will. Te Unied Saes is already engaged in mulilaeral parner-

ships and dialogues ha could serve as a good oundaion or scaled-up acion

on vehicle efficiency. Te inernaional diplomaic calendar provides wo key

opporuniies o reach an inernaional agreemen on vehicle efficiency among he

key se o counries ha make and buy he lions share o cars and rucks: he U.N.

Climae Summi and he G-20 Leaders Summi. G-20 counries, or example, are

responsible or 95 percen o he worlds vehicle producion and 91 percen o

vehicle sales. (see Figure 2)

Te U.N. Climae Summiwhich will ake place in New York in Sepember

will bring ogeher world leaders o discuss how o raise ambiion or a 2015

global climae agreemen and provide a plaorm or hem o announce new policy

commimens. I a selec group o counries commi o adoping bes pracice

sandards, hen he majoriy o global vehicle uel consumpion will be covered bysringen uel-economy sandards. (see Figure 3) An agreemen could be atracive

o Europe, Japan, and Canadawho are already poliically commited o raising

uel-efficiency sandardsas well as o India, Mexico, and China, where vehicle-

efficiency sandards are gaining racion.


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Jus wo monhs laer, he leaders o he worlds larges economies will convene

again, his ime a he G-20 Summi in Brisbane, Ausralia. Te G-20 has dem-

onsraed an ineres in his opic in he pas: I asked he Inernaional Energy

Agency wih producing an impac analysis o clean energy and energy-efficiency

policies, including uel economy, a is 2011 meeing in Cannes, France. Tis

repor ound ha ambiious uel-economy sandards would cu uel use andcarbon emissions ar more han elecric vehicle deploymen could over he nex

decade. Te repor also recommended ha counries adop fiscal measures o

send marke signals o poenial purchasers o more efficien vehicles.49Prior G-20

ineres and acion has paved he way or agreemens on vehicle efficiency, and his

years G-20 gahering could provide anoher such opporuniy.

Number of vehicles produced

Number of vehicles registered and sold

Number of

vehicles produced

Number of vehicles

registered and sold

FIGURE 2

A G-20 agreement would capture almost the entire global vehicle market

G-20 share of global vehicle market, 2013

87,300,115

85,393,803

G-20 countries total

Rest of world

South Africa

United States

Canada

Mexico

Brazil

Argentina

China

Japan

South Korea

India

Indonesia

Russia

Turkey

European Union

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

Saudi Arabia

Australia


Rest of worldWorld total

545,913

11,045,902

2,379,806

3,052,395

3,740,418

791,007

22,116,825

9,630,070

4,521,429

3,880,938

1,208,211

2,175,311

1,125,534

6,469,984

5,718,222

1,740,000

1,597,433

658,207

-

215,926

82,613,531

4,686,58487,300,115

650,620

15,883,969

1,779,860

1,100,542

3,767,370

948,858

21,984,100

5,375,513

1,543,564

3,241,209

1,218,900

2,950,483

893,124

4,620,991

3,257,718

2,201,068

2,595,713

1,419,494

740,000

1,136,227

77,309,323

8,084,48085,393,803


Rest of world

Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, "World Motor Vehicle Production" (2013), available at http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics; Internation

Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, "World Motor Vehicle Sales" (2013), available at http://www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics.


20/29


Potential targets and actions

A he U.N. Climae Summi, he G-20 Leaders Summi, and oher venues, here

are a number o possible oucomes ha could significanly advance vehicle-effi-

ciency policies. In order o capure he opporuniy ha he Climae Summi and

he G-20 meeings presen, he Unied Saes and oher counries should workoward he ollowing inernaional arges and accompanying acions.

For cars, counries should commi o gradually increasing vehicle-efficiency

perormance. Such a commimen should be underpinned by a arge or aspira-

ional goal o reducing carbon dioxide emissions per disance raveled by a leas

5 percen per year. Tis rae o improvemen is possible wih known and emerg-

ing cos-effecive echnologies. Carbon dioxide emissions sandards will apply

o hree-quarers o he worlds passenger car flee sales hrough 2015, bu hese

sandards will only apply o one-hird o he world flee hrough 2020. Currenly,

U.S. uel-economy sandards or cars will reduce average carbon dioxide emissionsa a rae o more han 4 percen per year hrough 2025, making hese sandards he

mos ambiious in he world. I he world adoped uel-economy sandards ha

encouraged improvemen on a more ambiious rae and imeline, he uel savings

would be monumenal. In he Unied Saes alone, a 4 percen rae o improve-

men or cars hrough 2050alongside improved echnologieswould reduce

oil consumpion by up o 80 percen.50

Similarly, counries should commi o gradually increasing vehicle-efficiency

perormance or rucks, underpinned by a arge or aspiraional rae o a leas a

4 percen reducion in carbon dioxide emissions per disance raveled each year

hrough 2050. As one o only a ew counries wih ruck uel-economy sandards,

he Unied Saes can help oher counries by drawing atenion o he benefis o

acion and encouraging naions o move orward in andem. Te Unied Saes

can help spur his progress hrough echnical assisance. Such assisance is needed

o esablish sandards ha deliver he appropriae echnologies or differen ypes

o rucks, given he variey in his ype o vehicle. Using is exising venues, such

as he EPAs SmarWay program, he Unied Saes can couple a push or global

sandards wih effecive echnical assisance.

Te G-20 or he U.N. Secreary-General should also ask addiional work on

vehicle efficiency o a echnical body ha could suppor heir effors. Building on

he Inernaional Energy Agencys, or IEAs, 2011 repor, or example, he G-20

could ask IEAis energy secreariao convene sandard-seting agencies


21/29


and aciliae he exchange o inormaion and proven policy approaches. Te IEA

could also serve he imporan role o reporing back o he G-20 on wha prog-

ress counries are making oward heir goals.

An inernaional vehicle-efficiency agreemen could be suppored by ongoing

mulilaeral work as well. Te Climae and Clean Air Coaliion, or CCAC, orexample, is a group o 38 counries, insiuions, and nongovernmenal organiza-

ions ocused on eliminaing shor-lived climae polluans, poen greenhouse

gases ha persis or a relaively shor ime in he amosphere. Cars and rucks are

a significan source o black carbon, a shor-lived climae polluan ha has serious

warming effecs, as well as derimenal healh impacs. Te Unied Saes is a lead

parner on he CCAC iniiaive or reducing polluion rom rucks.

A mulilaeral agreemen wih srong arges or cars and rucks, plus plaorms

or echnical exchange, would ransorm he vehicle efficiency landscape. Such an

agreemen would provide lasing poliical imperaive or acion. However, balanc-ing he needs o many differen counries in a global venue can

be difficul. Swifly negoiaing an ambiious vehicle-efficiency

agreemen has a low guaranee o success bu, i negoiaed,

would be very high impac. Te Unied Saes can help ensure

he success o a global agreemen by paving he way wih one or

more bilaeral agreemens wih key counries.

Bilateral agreements

Tere are also a number o imporan bilaeral opporuniies

in he area o vehicle efficiency ha can be seized in he com-

ing monhs. Tese opporuniies no only have benefis uno

hemselves, bu will also help build he oundaion or a larger

mulilaeral agreemen.

Several key counries have already demonsraed poliical will o

regulae vehicle uel economy. Some o hese counries are also

large vehicle markes ha are responsible or significan porionso global uel consumpion. I he Unied Saes worked wih jus

a ew key counries o improve vehicle efficiency, hen he major-

iy o he worlds uel consumpion or road ranspor would be

regulaed by ambiious uel-economy sandards. (see Figure 3)

Poenial parners or he Unied Saes are discussed below.

Policies that encourage cleaner fuels are als

critical for reducing air pollution and carbo

emissions. Clean fuel policies typically limit

sulfur and/or carbon content of fuels. Some

countries and citiesincluding Canada, Au

and Koreaalready have ultra-low sulfur fustandards, and the United States has the w

most stringent standards for sulfur emissio

from trucks. However, some countries whos

zens would benefit the most from the air qu

benefits of reducing sulfursuch as China,

Brazil, and Mexicohave yet to adopt low-

fuel standards.

Only California and the European Union cur

track the carbon intensity of fuels, but doin

important for understanding emissions from

unconventional fuels. These tracking effort

be expanded internationally, and clean fue

cies can be adopted within bilateral or mul

eral agreements on fuel economy.

Clean fuels


22/29


China

China is devoing significan resources o reducing air polluion

in and around is ciies, and vehicles are a significan source o

ha polluion. o mee his challenge, China has sough o limi

he number o cars on he road and has promoed uel-economysandards. Bu more mus be done.

o ha end, he Unied Saes and China are well posiioned

o ac ogeher on uel efficiency. Te Chinese auo indusry

has never been more ouward acing as i srives o be a glob-

ally compeiive indusry, wih srong join venures beween

Chinese and American auomakers. A he same ime, he U.S.

Deparmen o Sae, U.S. Deparmen o ransporaion, and

EPA are working wih China on an iniiaive o reduce emissions

rom rucks and oher vehicles. Te curren cooperaionunder he umbrella o he U.S.-China Climae Change Working

Groupconsiss o echnical suppor on uel qualiy, uel effi-

ciency, and green reigh.

Te Unied Saes and China could agree o subsanially improve

heir respecive vehicle-efficiency policies or rucks over he nex decade beween

2015 and 2025. On he par o he Unied Saes, his would require robus, new

ruck sandards, which he Obama adminisraion has commited o issuing by

March 2016. China could make curren sandards more sringen or all ypes o

rucks and agree o sep up enorcemen. For cars, he Unied Saes can also provide

assisance o help bring Chinas passenger car flee up o a more sringen rae o

efficiency improvemen hrough 2025. Te nex U.S.-China Sraegic and Economic

Dialogue, expeced o ake place in July, provides one opporuniy or securing such

an agreemen.

India

India released is firs-ever efficiency sandards or cars in January, which are effec-ive or new cars saring in 2017. Imporanly, he new sandards have suppor

rom domesic producers. In ac, Indian auomakers paricipaed in he ormaion

o he sandards and approved consulaion papers hroughou he process.51

China

Mexico

India

Canada

United

States

European

Union

FIGURE 3

Agreements between a few G-20

countries would cover a majority of

global vehicle fuel consumption

Road sector fuel consumption, 2011,

kilotons of oil equivalent

Source: International Council on Clean Transportation, Globalpassenger vehicle standards, available at http://www.theicct.org/info-tools/global-passenger-vehicle-standards (last accessed May 201The World Bank, "Road sector energy consumption (kt of oilequivalent)," available at http://data.worldbank.org/indica-tor/IS.ROD.ENGY.KT (last accessed May 2014).

Rest of world

Rest of G


23/29


Te Unied Saes should explore he poenial or cooperaion in his area.

For insance, India could expand is uel-economy sandards o cover no only

passenger cars, as is currenly he case, bu also rucks and buses. India aces

many challenges in achieving is uel-economy sandards due o widespread

uel mixing. Subsidized uels in India, such as kerosene, are requenly mixed

wih gasoline o creae cheaper mixed uels. Tis can lead o higher emissionso polluans and greenhouse gases. Alongside cooperaion on uel-economy

sandards, he Unied Saes should provide echnical assisance o help rack

uel qualiy. Te EPA should work wih he Indian Peroleum and Naural Gas

Regulaory Boardunder he Minisry o Peroleum and Naural Gaso

coordinae his effor.

Tere are muliple bilaeral racks hrough which such bilaeral cooperaion could

occur, including he U.S.-India Energy Dialogue, he U.S.-India Climae Change

Dialogue, and he new Join Working Group on Susainable Growh.

Mexico

As Japan, Europe, and he Unied Saes lead on uel-economy sandards, Mexicos

auo indusry is eeling srong pressure o ac oo. Japanese and European auo-

makers are expanding vehicle assembly capaciy in Mexico o save on labor coss

and o serve he U.S. marke. As a resul, Mexico has developed a robus vehicle

pars expor marke, wih more han hal o hese expors going o he Unied

Saes.52o say compeiive and mainain marke share in he Unied Saes,

Mexico has already expressed a desire o harmonize is uel-economy sandards

wih hose o he Unied Saes hrough a regional approach along wih Canada.

Mexico adoped sandards in July 2013 or carbon dioxide emissions and uel

economy o new cars or 2014 o 2016 a levels ha mirror previous U.S. san-

dards. Now, he Unied Saes should work wih Mexico o harmonize is policies

wih U.S. sandards by exending his imeline and rae o improvemen hrough

2025. Given he close rade relaionship beween he Unied Saes and Mexico,

a bilaeral agreemen on car sandard harmonizaion should occur hrough he

Commission or Environmenal Cooperaion wihin he Norh American Freerade Agreemen, or NAFA.


24/29


Te Unied Saes and Mexico can also work ogeher o reduce he uel consump-

ion o rucks. A he 2014 Norh American Leaders Summi, U.S., Canadian,

and Mexican leaders agreed on a call o acion o adhere o high sandards in

uel qualiy and efficiency or rucks.53Given his exising poliical will, here

is an opporuniy or progress wih he Mexican governmen. Boh counries

should improve heir curren uel-economy sandards or rucks by exending hesandards hrough 2025. Such a commimen will require high-level suppor and

could be announced a nex years Norh American Leaders Summi.

Te Unied Saes, by working wih hese counries on bilaeral agreemens, can

bring counries represening a significan porion o he global vehicles marke

ino alignmen on he imporance o vehicle efficiency. Doing so will pave he way

or a global agreemen on vehicle efficiency.


25/29


Recommendations and conclusion

Tere are many opporuniies in he coming monhs o accelerae global vehicle

efficiency. Specifically, global leaders should pursue mulilaeral acions in a num-

ber o venues. A coaliion o willing counries could spearhead a leader saemen

a he U.N. Secreary-Generals Climae Summi in New York in Sepember, or a

he G-20 meeings in November. Oher mulilaeral racks, such as he CCAC,

could provide a plaorm or echnical exchange beween counries. Te Unied

Saes should use he srengh o is domesic acion on uel economy and vehicle

efficiency o lead in hese venues.

Te Unied Saes should also use is domesic leadership on vehicle efficiency o

orm bilaeral agreemens wih a number o like-minded counries ha are also

significan players in he vehicles marke. Te Unied Saes should work wih

China, he worlds larges vehicle marke, o improve ruck efficiency hrough

2025. Te Unied Saes should also work wih India on expanding efficiency

sandards o cover more ypes o vehicles, especially rucks, and o improve

uel qualiy. Finally, he Unied Saes should work wih Mexico, a close rading

parner or he U.S. auo indusry, o harmonize cars sandards and increase he

sringency o ruck sandards.

Tese bilaeral agreemens would cemen U.S. leadership on vehicle efficiency and

demonsrae o he res o he world ha some o he worlds larges auomakers

and vehicle markes are demanding more efficien vehicles. More efficien vehicles

will help counries save on uel coss and boos he economy, srenghen energy

securiy, and proec public healh. In addiion, uel-economy sandards will

help reduce greenhouse gas emissions ha drive global climae change. In shor,

vehicle efficiency nealy aligns poliical prioriies or naions seeking o grow heir

economies while promoing a healhy environmen or all.


26/29


About the authors

Cecilia Springeris a senior associae a Climae Advisers, where she leads projecs

on low-carbon ransporaion, susainable finance or energy and agriculural com-

modiies, and carbon pricing. Previously, she served as a U.S. Fulbrigh scholar,

conducing research in ianjin, China, on planning and ranspor in ecociies.

Pete Ogdenis a Senior Fellow and he Direcor o Inernaional Energy and

Climae Policy a he Cener or American Progress. From 2012 o 2013, he

served on he W hie House naional securiy saff as direcor or climae change

and environmenal policy. Previously, he served on he Whie House Domesic

Policy Council as senior direcor or energy and climae change and a he

U.S. Sae Deparmen as chie o saff o he special envoy or climae change.

Beore joining he Obama adminisraion, he was Chie o Saff o he Cener or

American Progress.

Nigel Purvisis he ounder, presiden, and CEO o Climae Advisers. Previously,

Purvis direced U.S. environmenal diplomacy in he Clinon and George W. Bush

adminisraions, mos recenly as depuy assisan secreary o sae or oceans,

environmen, and science. Currenly, Purvis holds climae change and inernaional

affairs research appoinmens a Resources or he Fuure, he German Marshall

Fund o he Unied Saes, and he Brookings Insiuion. He also serves as he

execuive direcor o he biparisan Commission on Climae and ropical Foress.

Andreas Dahl-Joergensenis direcor o policy a Climae Advisers. Prior o join-

ing Climae Advisers, Dahl-Joergensen was wih he Norwegian governmens

Inernaional Climae and Fores Iniiaive, where he led Norways landmark $1

billion parnership wih Indonesia. He represened Norway in he inernaional

climae negoiaions. Dahl-Joergensen previously worked or he World Bank as a

carbon finance analys overseeing several large carbon unds.


27/29


Endnotes

1 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook2013 (2013).

2 The International Council on Clean Transportation,Global Comparison of Passenger Car and Light-commercial Vehicle Fuel Economy/GHG Emissions Stan-

dards (2014), available at http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/info-tools/ICCT_PV_standard_Feb2014.pdf.

3 In this paper, efficiency is defined in terms of fuelconsumptionor carbon emissionsper distancetraveled.

4 Vehicles are typically split into two categories: light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles. Light-dutyvehicles include passenger cars, minivans, SUVs, andlight-commercial vehicles. Heavy-duty vehicles includemedium and heavy commercial vehicles as well asbuses. In this paper, for the sake of clarity, we call light-duty vehicles cars, and heavy-duty vehicles trucks.

5 Global Fuel Economy Initiative, Fuel Economy: Stateof the World 2014 (2014), available athttp://www.globalfueleconomy.org/Documents/Publications/

gfei_state_of_the_world_2014.pdf. GFEI is a partner-ship between the U.N. Environment Programme, theInternational Energy Agency, FIA Foundation, theInternational Council on Clean Transportation, andthe Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis andInternational Transport Forum.

6 The White House, Improving the Fuel Efficiency ofAmerican Trucks (2014), available at http://www.white-house.gov/sites/default/files/docs/finaltrucksreport.pdf.

7 Ibid.

8 BlueGreen Alliance, Gearing Up: Smart Standards Cre-ate Good Jobs Building Cleaner Cars (2012), availableat http://www.bluegreenalliance.org/news/publica-tions/document/AutoReport_Final.pdf.

9 Driving Growth, How Fuel Efficiency is Driving JobGrowth in the U.S. Auto Industry (2012), avail-able at http://drivinggrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/How_Fuel_is_Driving_Growth_Octo-ber_revise.pdf.

10 Victor Mallet, Indias reliance on imported energythreatens long-term recovery, The Financial Times,September 12, 2013, available at http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c20792e2-1b84-11e3-b678-00144feab7de.html#axzz33D7TBzyP.

11 U.S. Energy Information Administration, China (2014),available at http://www.eia.gov/countries/analysis-briefs/China/china.pdf.

12 International Energy Agency, Oil and Gas Security:Peoples Republic of China (2012), available athttp://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publica-

tion/China_2012.pdf.

13 Yuefu Jin and others, Development of Fuel Consump-tion Standards for Chinese Light-Duty Vehicles (2005),available at http://papers.sae.org/2005-01-0534/.

14 Hongyan H. Oliver and others, Chinas Fuel EconomyStandards for Passenger Vehicles (Cambridge, MA: Har-vard University, 2009), available at http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/2009_Oliveretal_Impacts_of_Chi-nese_Fuel_Economy_Standards.pdf.

15 Securing Americas Future Energy, A National Strategyfor Energy Security (2013), available at http://www.secureenergy.org/policy/national-strategy-energy-security-2013. Passenger car standards will reduce oilconsumption by 3.1 million barrels per day by 2030.Currently, the United States consumes nearly 19 million

barrels per day. Assuming a constant rate of decrease, a16 percent reduction in oil consumption over 16 years,U.S. oil consumption will decline by roughly 1 percenteach year.

16 World Health Organization, 7 million premature deathsannually linked to air pollution, Press release, March25, 2014, available athttp://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-pollution/en/.

17 Michael Greenstone and others, Background Materialfor Greenstone and Pande International New York

Times Op-Ed (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University,2014), available at http://www.hks.harvard.edu/var/ezp_site/storage/fckeditor/file/Background%20Mate-rial%20for%20Greenstone%20and%20Pande%20Feb%202014%20Op-Ed.pdf.

18 World Health Organization, Burden of Disease from

Ambient Air Pollution for 2012 (2014), available athttp://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/AAP_BoD_results_March2014.pdf?ua=1.

19 The World Bank and the Development Research Centerof the State Council, the Peoples Republic of China,Urban China: Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustain-able Urbanization (2014), available athttp://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/EAP/China/WEB-Urban-China.pdf.

20 Union of Concerned Scientists, Cars, Trucks, and AirPollution, available at http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/why-clean-cars/air-pollution-and-health/cars-trucks-air-pollution.html (last accessed May 2014).

21 BBC News, Paris car ban starts after pollution hits high,March 17, 2014, available at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26599010.

22 Stefan Nicola, Cars Become Biggest Driver of Green-house-Gas Increases, Bloomberg News, April 9, 2014,available at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/cars-become-biggest-driver-of-greenhouse-gas-increases.html.

23 Global Fuel Economy Initiative, Fuel Economy: State ofthe World 2014.

24 Ibid.

25 This estimate was calculated by comparing annualemissions from 2015 to 2050 from the UNEP 2 degreesscenario to the estimated emissions reductions fromthe GFEI target from 2015 to 2050.


27 The White House, Improving the Fuel Efficiency ofAmerican Trucks.

28 McKinsey & Company, The road to 2020 and beyond:Whats driving the global automotive industry? (2013),available at http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mck-insey/dotcom/client_service/automotive%20and%20assembly/pdfs/mck_the_road_to_2020_and_beyond.ashx.
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29 Oliver and others, Chinas Fuel Economy Standards forPassenger Vehicles.

30 Carlos Gomes, Global Auto Report (Scotiabank, 2014),available at http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/bns_auto.pdf.

31 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook2013.


33 The International Council on Clean Transportation,Global Comparison of Passenger Car and Light-commercial Vehicle Fuel Economy/GHG EmissionsStandards.

34 David Greene, How Consumers Value Fuel Economy:A Literature Review (Washington: U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency, 2010), available at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations/420r10008.pdf.

35 Consumer Reports, High gas prices motivate drivers tochange direction, May 2012, available at http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/2012/05/high-gas-prices-motivate-drivers-to-change-direction/index.htm.

36 Randy Chugh, Maureen L. Cropper, and Urvashi Narain,The Cost of Fuel Economy in the Indian PassengerVehicle Market. Working Paper 16987 (National Bureau

of Economic Research, 2011), available athttp://www.nber.org/papers/w16987.pdf?new_window=1.

37 J.D. Power McGraw Hill Financial, Vehicle InteriorGains Importance as Driver of Satisfaction amongNew-Vehicle Owners in India, Press release, December21, 2012, available at http://www.jdpower.com/press-releases/2012-india-apeal-study#.

38 Consumer Federation of America, New Research:Consumers Embrace New Fuel Economy Standard, arePurchasing More High MPG Vehicles, and Plan to Sig-nificantly Increase Fuel Efficiency in Future Purchases,Press release, April 29, 2013, available at http://www.consumerfed.org/news/663.

39 John German and Dan Meszler, Best Practices for Fee-bate Program Design and Implementation (Washing-ton: The International Council on Clean Transportation,

2010), available athttp://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_feebates_may2010.pdf.


41 Ibid.

42 Ibid.

43 Oliver and others, Chinas Fuel Economy Standards forPassenger Vehicles.

44 Edward Niedermeyer, Suicide, Scandal and ChinasAuto Market Power Grab, Bloomberg View, January 30,2014, available at http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-01-30/suicide-scandal-and-china-s-auto-market-power-grab.

45 Hui He and Jun Tu, The New Passenger Car Fleet in

China, 2010: Technology Assessment and I nternationalComparisons (Washington: The International Councilon Clean Transportation, 2010), available at http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_New_Passenger_Car_Fleet_China_2010.pdf.

46 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook2013.

47 Mike Roeth and others, Barriers to the IncreasedAdoption of Fuel Efficiency Technologies in the NorthAmerican On-Road Freight Sector ( Washington: TheInternational Council on Clean Transportation, 2013),available at http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT-NACFE-CSS_Barriers_Report_Fi-nal_20130722.pdf.

48 KPMG International, Competing in the Global TruckIndustry: Emerging Markets Spotlight (2011), available

at http://www.kpmg.com/RU/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/Global%20Truck%20Industry.pdf.

49 International Energy Agency, G-20 Clean Energy, andEnergy Efficiency Deployment and Policy Progress(2011), available athttp://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/G20_paper.pdf.

50 National Research Council, Transitions to Alternative Ve-hicles and Fuels(Washington: The National AcademiesPress, 2013).

51 The Economic Times, Bureau of Energy Efficiency tosoon finalise fuel efficiency norms for cars, March5, 2012, available at http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-03-05/news/31124325_1_fuel-efficiency-fuel-economy-standards-for-new-cars.

52 Gomes, Global Auto Report.

53 The White House, FACT SHEET: Key Deliverables for the2014 North American Leaders Summit, Press release,February 19, 2014, available athttp://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/02/19/fact-sheet-key-deliv-erables-2014-north-american-leaders-summit.
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