John BlodgettOSEDA, UMC

September 26, 20117th Annual Missouri Senior Tax Levy Board Conference

2010 Decennial Census

American Community Survey, “vintage” 2009, (Census Bureau)

Official Missouri population projections by county thru 2030.

Ongoing inter-censal population estimates.

mcdc.missouri.edu

-via-

oseda.missouri.edu

mcdc.missouri.edu

Select up to 4 geographic areas for which you would like to see data.

You typically choose a state (Missouri is default), an Area Type (state, county, city, etc). A dynamically-generated select menu appears.

Select one or more areas from that select menu. E.g. choose 3 counties in Mo.

Repeat if necessary. Then use “Generate Report” button to see results.

In 2000 there was a long form with questions about things like income, education, occupation, disability, home value, etc. The resulting data products were rich with all this content.

In 2010 there was only a short form with 7 questions. So all we get are basic demographics.

To get the “good stuff” you have to use the American Community Survey data.

Access the “MO County Data Map” (from Quick Links box on mcdc pages)

http://mcdc.missouri.edu/pub/webrepts/mocntymap.html

Provides an easy way to get access to a wide array of applications for a selected geographic area (such as a Missouri county).

Geographic areas with 65k+ population get 1-year, 3-year and 5-year reports.

Areas with 20K pop but less than 65K get 3-year and 5-year reports.

Areas with < 20K just get 5-year reports. Smaller areas require more years of data to

increase the sample size. Sampling error can be a major concern

when using ACS data, esp for small areas. Applinks takes care of taking you to latest

available report(s).

We are just now (9/11) starting to get “vintage 2010” ACS data. The single-year data were partially released 9-22-11.

3-year period estimates based on 2008-2010 data due in October. 5-year data (2006-2010) around Christmas.

Applinks currently provides links to the “vintage 2009” data. As newer data becomes available, applinks will be updated to reflect it.

Until now, available only for areas with 65k population.

Starting later this year we’ll have 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 data for the medium-sized areas and will be able to do trend reports for them using these non-overlapping period estimates.

Links to the ACS trend reports are provided at the top of the ACS Profile reports.

Trying to forecast the future, population-wise.

Done by the Missouri State Demographer’s Office in 2007.

Based on 2000 census data and 2005 post-censal estimates.

These will be revised to use the latest census data and estimates, “probably in 2014”.

At http://mcdc.missouri.edu/trends/projections.shtml (just type “population projections” in “Search this site” box).

This page contains links to data sets (accessible using uexplore/dexter) and to the Excel files, 1 per county, containing detailed data and pop pyramids.

Follow the link to the data sets to see …

You can follow the link to the Charts directory from the moprojs uexplore page.

Takes you to a set of 115 Excel files, Adair.xls thru Wright.xls.

Each xls file contains 6 worksheets corresponding to years 2005, 2010,…,2030

Pop pyramids display above the data.

The maps subdirectory of moprojs contains a series of data maps as .gif files.

They depict dot density and choropleth maps of selected data items taken from the elderdata911 data set.

John BlodgettOSEDA, U. of Missouri

Missouri Census Data Centerblodgettj@missouri.edu