Activities & Plans 2007Dijana Klaric Met service of CroatiaRC LACE Project Leader

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RC LACE report

Environment &

R&D highlightsOperations and Common actions

Project EvaluationFuture

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F,Ro,Bg,Cz,Hu,Sk,PL,A,Mc,Si,Cr,B,Pt,Tu,Al (Mo,Tk,........)--I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I----I---I----I1990 1996------------------------2002 2007ALADIN Project

ALADIN Project1990 ->R&D project Members with different NWP ambitions

MF-LACE backboneStructure & Budget

LACE Project 1990 ->Operations and R&D projectMembers sharing the ambitionsRomania membership (November 2006)Central and SE Europe LACE is a tool for ALADIN activity in C&SE E

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Regional CooperationenvironmentMembers:Au-Cr-Cz-Hu-Ro-Si-SkCo-operation:R&D on meso-scale NWPOperationsCommon actions

RC LACE MoURC LACE Budget

7 NWP teamsLACE MG Project Leader, 4 Working Group Leaders, ALADIN SC, Data Manager

MF partnerALADIN partnersHIRLAM SRNWP

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R&D overviewLACE Scientific Plans 2006; 2007main input for ALADIN Scientific plansIFS environment (spectral space): Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro10km) -Arome (2.5km)

R&D working groups: Dynamics , Physics , Data Assimilation, Predictability40 scientists: 7 NWP teams + visitors 25-30 pxm funds Leading NWP results: NH Dynamics -->>>

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Dynamics and Coupling

NH ALADIN Dynamics

- core for NH ALADIN and AROME models- tests at ECMWF ( to become the next IFS dynamics)- Vertical finite elements (Hy, NH ) Other dynamical issues SLHD filter Dynamics Physics interface TL/AD for ALADIN SL (4D Var tool)

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VFE for NH ALADIN more accurate then Finite Differencescoded for Hy (Hortal ) and NH (Vivoda)Stability tests (stil noisy at BC)Results:

SLHD Semi Lagrangian Horizontal Diffusion- non-linear scheme-triggered by flow field deformation-special care to control orography triggered noiseResults: on Prognostic Physics variablesTKE over flat orog.AROME

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Physics System AAAArpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro10km) -Arome (2.5km) Physic packages :ALADIN/ARPEGE - global and LAM- sharing phy.meso-NH physics - base for AROME meso- model

ALARO physics - multi-scale physics for 10-5km:New governing equ. and progn. water species

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Physics (10km->5km) ALARO transitionALARO-0, step 1 (system)Equations and interface (loss of mass due to precipitation is considered );Prognostic cloud water (microphysics 5 water species);Radiation NER formulation;Turbulence (pseudo- prognostic TKE scheme);Cloudiness issue (improved optical properties, new saturation cloud model)ALARO-0, step 2 (multi-scale, grey-zone)Sub-grib scale convection - 3MT3MT - Microphysics and Transport for SGS convection +Multiscale +Modular =3MT

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ALARO DiagnosticsModel consistency and performance (ALARO: more memory, less CPU better optinimized)DDH tool for diagnostic (IFS basic, AAA developed) Model comparison ALARO vs ALADIN PhyALARO v0: operative at CZ, Be,..... (new ALADIN)

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MT + additional prognostic variables + cascading microphysics relevant for grey zone 2MT.2MT: Multiscale Microphysics and Transport. 7 km 4 km 2 kmCas du 10/09/2005. Cumul de prcipitation en 1h (mm). Source Gerard (QJRMS 2007).2MT What has been done Results (J-M Piriou, Radostovice, ALARO Training and WS)

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ALARO plans 2007->Governing equations: extension to compressible case (NH)Pseudo-prognostic TKE-scheme: new mixing length formulation; an 'analytical' CBR interpretation within p-TKEGravity wave drag parametrization: re-tune for no- envelope orography3MT: validation and tuning, sensitivity to mid-troposphere humidity , test of convection diurnal cycle(Team; JF Geleyn, JM Piriou, B Catry, L Gerard, R Brozkova, N Pristov,M Tudor, F Vana, J Masek, D Banciu......)

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Data Assimilation Research focus

Ensemble B matrics3D-FGAT ALADIN (transition to 4D-Var)Observations AMV, SEVIRI

Blending initialization (with surface OI CANARI)

(team:Boloni,Kertesz, Trojakova,Majek, Randriamampianina)ALADIN/ 3D VAR HMS x=12 km; 37 vertical L 6 hour cycle 3D-VAR for the upper air fields substitution of the surface fields by the ARPEGE ones B matrix: NMC method LBC: long cut-off ARPEGE analysis, 3 h coupling frequency

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3D FGAT - hourly SYNOPs, AIREP, SATOB increments tests; observation window; Results:3D FGAT vs 3DVar (all measurements)Red- 3D FGAT better (Z,RH, U,V)RMSBIAS

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SEVIRI data analysis by ALADIN -3DVar

Tests: with 2 ways for B Matrix computation: NMC vs Ensemble diff 3D Var resolutions (12km/37L vs 8km/45L) Tuning of obs-error statisticsResults on SEVIRI impact :Impact be similar to ATOVS data (AMSU-A or AMSU-B) assimilated in high resolution; Impact depending on the parameters (Rh, Z) and model levels;Negative impact near the surface needs further tests with more surface measurements (2m T, 2m RH) -coupled with SEVIRI

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WG on Predictability Research focusUncertenties at initial conditionsALADIN Singular Vector (SV)Breeding, ET, ETKF, blendingBlending ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbation

Multi-physics parameterizations ( 11 mem, diff tuning, diff schem.)

Downscaling of ECMWF EPS Clustering approaches for downscaling ECMWF EPS ( ECMWF Tech. Memo.507, Jan 2007)(team: Wang, Kann, Horanyi, Bellus, Ivatek-Sahdan, Hagel,etc)

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Uncertenties at initial conditionsT-perturbations for: SV, breeding, blended Blending: ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbationBlended perturbations have the highest spread (red curve)

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Multi-physics option11 members, Bougeault-type, Kain-Fritsch deep convection scheme,moisture convergence and CAPE closure in the convection scheme, Kessler-type scheme for LP,Lopez microphysics scheme

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WG on Predictability Common tools and products

Verification package

LAEF products Down. of ECMWF EPS(16+cont, 18 km)EPS gramsProbability chartsStampsPlanned:Multi-physicsBlending

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2007 ALADIN-LACE-HIRLAM actions ALARO training at Radostovice, March 2007 14 participants all LACE Members (+ MF, Be, PT, Mc + Denmark)

GLAMEPS Project at ECMWF ( HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE EPS project)

ALADIN-HIRLAM coordination on SURFACE and DA issues

ALADIN-HIRLAM general WS at Oslo April 2007

LACE training on CANARI at Budapest, Nov 2007

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GLAMEPS grand EPS Meso-scale real-time EPS >100 members

HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACEalterative of using several sub-European and less populated ensemble systems which single NMSs could run on their ownCommon: operations, product distribution and verificationDesirable set-ups : large domain: 22km, 37 levels, 320 x 300 points, +60h int.

Two phasesLaboratory phase at ECMWF (2007-2008)Distributed production stage (2008-2009)

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GLAMEPS_v0- test phase HIRLAM -66 members

ECMWF targeted singular vectors (TSV) OT - 24h-3 TSV domains - 2 HIRLAM physics - (10 memx2 mod x3dom)

ALADIN 20 members

Downscaling of ECMWF EPS 22km/44km ALADINlat/lon post-proc. (INM sys)Next step: ALADIN native singular vectors (tests)(OT =+12h, +24h)

FDP MAP D-PhaseMAP D-phase Demonstration Project (June-Nov 2007)Probabilistic hydrological and meteorological simulations for heavy rains and flood events

Contribution of LACE via Austrian team ALADIN/Austria for deterministic products (x= 9.6km, 45 levels, dyn. adaptation)ALADIN LAEF probability products (24h precipitation) (x= 18km, 37 levels, 16 mem +contr. from ECMWF EPS)Disseminated to MAP D-Phase center

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RC LACE common actionsCentralized Verification: (Ljubljana)

Client/server systemAll ALADIN mod. results Tool for basic scores (synoptic scale)Monthly reporting procedurePortable to membersODB activities: (Data Manager; Budapest)

ODB training ODB help-desk Interactive Obs. Monitoring for Var DA Monthly reporting procedureQC for each stationComparison of Var DA results

Exchange of HR observations monitoring of obs network at MS

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www.rclace.eu (public and private zone)

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RC LACE Operations:+72h integration, 00 (06),12, (18) UTC runs

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RC LACEEvaluationProject Evaluation after 10 years of common activities (1996-2006)Goals:To provide objective view of ProjectTo range a LACE to NWP objectivesTo give independent advices about future development

Input for new LACE structure 2008->

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General recommendations (Quality of Project)Strategy and planning (short-term, long-term; users demands) Management structure (competence, authority) Internal/external communications (WWW, visibility, NWP consortia)Role of NWP systems at LACE centers (AAA models as the primary subjects)

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Recommendations for Task Sharing Reasons:To overcome the duplication of the operational efforts.

To suppress draining of resources on maintaining and downstream applications.

To provide small NWP centers with a complete NWP system.

Methods: Define the common tasks Agreement on Lead Centres for specific areasLead Centers: for researchfor operations Results: Efficient use of the available manpower.Specialisation of the NWP teams.

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LACE Future 2008 -> Political decision for the closer operative cooperation (toward the Projects with operative deliverables)

Leading centers => Responsible centerBottom-up => Top-down planning

Action Plan for implementation of (Working Group) LACE 10-years strategy LACE MoU III

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How LACE can respond to NWP competition in EuropeProvide better NWP quality, e.g. data assimilation Provide higher reliability, e.g. hardwareProvide better price/performance ratioProvide better customer service, e.g. documentation in local languageProvide more flexibility, e.g. product generationProvide tailored products for customers, e.g. hydrology

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LACE teams 2007 ~45 scientists (+-) (7 LACE MG)A 5 + Haiden,Wang,Wittmann, Kann,Leroch (Stadlbacher, Seidel,Pistotnik) Cr 7 +Kovacic, Klaric ,Tudor, Ivatek-Sahdan, Stanesic, Drvar, Kalin, (Horvath, Kraljevic) Cz 6 +Brozkova, Vana, Trojakova, Mladek, Januosek, Kral, (Smolikova, Prisutova) Hu 5 Horanyi, Boloni, Kulmann, Voros, Hagel, (Toth, Kertesz, Randriamampianina =>newcommer) Ro 5 Banciu, Stefanescu, Tascu, Ibanescu, Radu

Si 5 Zagar, Pristov, Cedilnik, Strajnar,Jerman Sk 7 Masek, Spaniel, Vivoda, Bellus, Derkova, Bastak, Jurasek, (Larrieu ,Simon, Majek)

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RC LACELBC transferRETIM 2000 satellite dissemination - costly, one-way comm. - canceled 1 Aug. 2006

Re-routing of LBC data via ECMWF

RMDCN migration to IPVPN MPLS

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