ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for

adaptation measuresCase study: floods

Economic aspectsFourth Follow Up Committee Meeting

Uccle, 12 November 2008Eve Giron CEESE-ULB

Delphine Sacré CEESE-ULBWalter Hecq CEESE-ULB

Economic damage categories

DirectIndirect

Tangible Tangible IntangibleIntangible

A) Some reminders Identification of categories of flood damage

- Buildings- Household goods- Cars- …

- Loss of life- Biodiversity loss- Spread of pollution & toxics- Stress / disruption of households & populations-Quality loss of water-…

- Production losses- Market disturbances- Impact on land values- Lost income- …

- Reduced competitiveness- Increased vulnerability of economic actors- Worry about the future- Stress- …

Physical water contact

No physical water contact

A) Some reminders Identification of categories of flood damage

Statistical analysis Heavy rains from 25 January to 28 February 2002 (Ourthe)

Jan - Feb 2002Esneux

Housing € Number

Household goods € Number

Business € Number

Total € Number

Souverain Pré 1.028 2 731 1 - - 1.759 3

Hony 35.227 26 25.900 25 947 1 62.074 52

Méry 5.624 10 4.784 6 5.266 1 15.674 17

Tilff 8.697 9 1.561 3 12.747 1 23.005 13

Total 50.576 47 32.976 35 18.960 3 102.511 85

B) State of progress : Damage functions (buildings)

•Literature analyses

Y = 2*x² + 2*x « Atlas du Rhin 2001 »

Y = HV * ² wd “B. Büchele & al., 2006”

Y = 7119,37 * wd + 12988,66 Collection “étude & synthèse”

Y = damages (in relative or absolute term)X = wd (m)Wd = Water depth (m)HV = House value (€)

Y = 2x2 + 2x

•Adaptation with database of our case studies and choice of the damage function

x = water level recorded during the flood in “m”                   Y = damage percentage in % (Example of the study of « Atlas du Rhin 2001 »)

•Estimation of the house value (HV) ( Relative Absolute)

Y = (2x2 + 2x )*HV/100

•Validation with real data (Disaster Fund)

B) State of progress : Damage functions

B) State of progress: Estimation of the house value

A) House value

• First idea: cadastral income (CI) not representative

Real value = CI / 5,3 %

• Empirical functions :

HV (€) = 125000 + 112 * CI (€) HV (€) = S (m²) * 39,4 (€/m²) * 33 C F = 0,6

B) Damage functions : Results

€

Thank you for your attention

B) Damage functions : Results Map of economic damages

Extend degree :

The ADAPT-project