advantage frontline toolbox - northwestern 2013 sophomores

7/24/2019 Advantage Frontline Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 Sophomores

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NDI 2013 SophsAdvantage Frontline Toolbox COPT ab

Table of Contents***Mexico Economy..............................................................................4

!exi"o #"ono$% Advantage Frontline&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&'

!exi"o #"on Adv ( #xts )1 ( *igh no+&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&,!exi"o #"on Adv ( #xts )2 ( -esilient&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&10***US/Sino War..................................................................................11

.S(Sino /ar Frontline&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 12***US/Russian Relations.....................................................................16

.S(-ssian -elations Frontline&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&1***emocracy....................................................................................1!

De$o"ra"% Advantage Frontline&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&20De$o"ra"% Adv ( #xts )1 ( .nsstainable&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&2De$o"ra"% Adv ( #xts )2 ( .nstable&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&2'De$o"ra"% Adv ( #xts )3 ( Pro$oting De$o"ra"% Fails&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&2,

***"rctic Con#ict................................................................................$%

Ar"ti" Coni"t Advantage Frontline&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&24Ar"ti" Adv ( #xts )1 ( No "oni"t "o$ing&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&32Ar"ti" Adv ( #xts )2 ( No #s"alation&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&3Ar"ti" Adv ( #xts ) ( I"e $elting&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&3,

***&ioterror.......................................................................................'(5ioterroris$ Advantage Frontline&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&365ioterror Adv ( #xts )1 ( No atta"7 ( Al 8aeda&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&34

***isease.........................................................................................4)Disease Advantage Frontline&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&1Disease Adv ( #xts )1 ( 9a""ines "he"7&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&Disease Adv ( #xts )2 ( No extin"tion&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&'Disease Adv ( #xts )3 ( Diseases inevitable&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&,

***&ioi+ersity...................................................................................4(5iodiversit% Advantage Frontline&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&65iodiversit% Adv ( #xts )1 ( No i$pa"t&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&'0

***"ma,on efo.................................................................................-1A$a:on De;orestation Advantage Frontline&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&'2A$a:on De;o Adv #xts ( )1 ( 5ra:il&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&''A$a:on De;o Adv #xts ( )2 ( /ar$ing&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&',A$a:on De;o Adv #xts )3 ( A$a:on resilient&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&'

***lobal Warmin.............................................................................-%


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***Mexico Economy


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Mexico Economy "+antae 0rontline

0irst Mexico economy ro2in no2 3 auto inustryKlier, 6-13(Thomas, senior economist in economic research department at Federal Reserve Bank ofChicago, published scholarly journals including Journal of Business and conomic !tatistics, "B# fromFrierich$#le%ander$&niversitaet rlangen$'uernberg, ermany, )h* in economics from "ichigan !tate&niversity, +"e%icos ro-ing Role in the 'orth #merican #uto .ndustry,/ June 01, 2301,http455mid-est6chicagofedblogs6org5archives523015375klier8blog6html9 :arbeck

Mexicos auto inustry 5as exerience tremenous ro2t5 since t5e mi31!%)s. 7ast year 1!8 of all li5t +e5icles rouce in 9ort5 "mericaoriinate in Mexico (see table 096 T5at is u s5arly from $) years ao an utsMexico a5ea of Canaa in terms of t5e number of +e5icles rouce Table 04*istribution of light vehicle production in 'orth #merica;n "ay 13, a panel of distinguished e%perts gathered at an event hosted by the *etroit branchof the Chicago Fed to discuss factors behind "e%icos gro-th as a vehicle producer6"ost of the presentations are available here6

#lso, see a recentChicago Fed


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higher than most e"eloping countries in sia, the competiti"e ege in that 4arast region has graually ecline !hen aggregate costs are consiere# The closeproximity to the +#0#, !hich allo!s greater logistical flexi(ility in response toshort-term eman fluctuations, as to Mexico/s luster in the eyes of largemanufacturers#


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Mexico Econ "+ 3 Exts =1 3 >i5 no2

Mexico>D eliminated most tariffs bet-een "e%ico, the &nited

!tates and Canada, -as only the beginning4 Mexico no2 boasts free3trae eals 2it5 44

countries more t5an any ot5er nation. .n northern and central "e%ico erman companies turn out electrical components for urope,

Canadian firms assemble aircraft parts and factory after factory makes televisions, fridge$freeers and much else6 Eac5 year Mexico exorts

manufacture oos to about t5e same +alue as t5e rest of 7atin "merica

ut toet5er. Trae ma:es u a bier c5un: of its ? t5an of any ot5er

lare countrys.@ 'ormally that -ould be a good thing, but after the 233A$3E financial crisis it meant that "e%ico got a

terrible -alloping6 Thanks to its -ide$open economy and high e%posure to the &nited !tates it suffered the steepest recession on the

#merican mainland4 in 233> its economy shrank by 7@6 The country had already had a rocky decade6 hen China joined the orld

Trade ;rganisation in 2330, it started undercutting "e%icos e%port industry6 .n the ten years to 2303 "e%icos economy gre- by an

average of just 067@ a year, less than half the rate of Brail, -hich flourished in part by e%porting commodities to China6H &ut

no2 c5anes are uner 2ay in Mexicos factories its Anancial sector an

e+en its oil an as Aels t5at auur 2ell for a +ery iBerent ecae 6 o2 i Mexico ac5ie+e suc5 a turnroun?@ Chinas

"t(pri"e export $a"hine s"7ed billions o; dollars o; bsiness ot o; !exi"o& 5t no+ Asian +ages and transport

"osts are rising and "o$panies are going +est& BThe China ;a"tor is "hanging big(ti$e> sa%s i$ ONeill> the

-ssia> India and ChinaE$"h to

!exi"os irritation& China is no longer as "heap as it sed to be& A""ording to *S5C> a ban7> in 2000 it "ost st

G0&32 an hor to e$plo% a Chinese $an;a"tring +or7er> against G1&'1 ;or a !exi"an one& 5% last %ear Chinese

+ages had Hintpled to G1&,3> +hereas !exi"an ones had risen onl% to G2&10 see "hart 1J& The $ini$$ +age inShanghai and 8ingdao is no+ higher than in !exi"o Cit% and !onterre%> not least be"ase o; the ro"7eting

ren$inbi&@ -ight next door@>aulin oos from "sia to "merica is costlier too. T5e

rice of oil 5as treble since t5e start of t5e century ma:in it more

attracti+e to manufacture close to mar:ets. " container can ta:e t5ree

mont5s to tra+el from C5ina to t5e Unite States 25ereas roucts

truc:e in from Mexico can ta:e ust a coule of ays.#li%)artners, a consultancy, said last year that the joint
http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566782-cheaper-china-and-credit-and-oil-about-start-flowing-mexico-becoming?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/se_ores_start_your_engineshttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566782-cheaper-china-and-credit-and-oil-about-start-flowing-mexico-becoming?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/se_ores_start_your_engineshttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566782-cheaper-china-and-credit-and-oil-about-start-flowing-mexico-becoming?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/se_ores_start_your_engineshttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566782-cheaper-china-and-credit-and-oil-about-start-flowing-mexico-becoming?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/se_ores_start_your_engineshttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566782-cheaper-china-and-credit-and-oil-about-start-flowing-mexico-becoming?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/se_ores_start_your_engineshttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566782-cheaper-china-and-credit-and-oil-about-start-flowing-mexico-becoming?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/se_ores_start_your_engineshttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566782-cheaper-china-and-credit-and-oil-about-start-flowing-mexico-becoming?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/se_ores_start_your_engines


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effect of pay, logistics and currency fluctuations had madeMexico t5e 2orls c5eaest lace to manufacture

oos estine for t5e Unite States unercuttin C5ina as 2ell as

countries suc5 as ;nia an Fietnam.@ Companies have noticed6 +hen you -ipe a-ay the )R and look

at the real numbers, !exi"o is startlingl% good> sa%s oise the regional head o; Sie$ens> a


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"e%ico "eans Iuality and Competitiveness,/ January, 2301,http455---6siteselection6com5issues523015jan5me%ico6cfm9 :arbeck!uddenly, the eyes of investors turned to-ard "e%ico, and not because of the violence unleashed by the drug -ar6 .t seems that theland of the teNuila is becoming one of the favorite sites for global companies looking to e%pand their business operations -orld-ide6H

+We 5a+e foun in Mexico an attracti+e inustrial en+ironment an a reaysuly of s:ille laborG sai Serge uran CEH of Eurocoter e Mexico, in;ctober 2300, during the construction launch of a ne- manufacturing plant in the city of Iuertaro, -ith an investment value of a

&!K??3 million6H"lt5ou5 Mexico still faces imortant c5allenes t5e country isturnin into t5e ne2 Ilittle arlin of emerin mar:etsG as mentione byMennethRao,a in 0orbes $aga:ine>on July 23026HThere are several reasons and facts that e%plain -hy this nationreflects an important economic evolution, achieved in only 2? years6H7eason num(er oneis the opening of the market, started in

0>E7, -hen the country joined the #TT, later the orld Trade ;rganiation & No+Mexico 5as 1$ free traeareements 2it5 44 countries, in"lding NAFTA> the North A$eri"an Free Trade Agree$ent signed+ith the .nited States and Canada> in e=e"t sin"e 1446 !ince then, the average trade tariff fell from 2A percent to 76>percent6 The opening policy also included the financial and foreign direct investment liberaliation of sectors not considered as

strategic for the nation6HMexico 2as also able to ma:e a strateic c5ane in itsexorts structure. ;n t5e 1!%)s 61 ercent of Mexicos exort roucts2ere crue oil. "t resent %1 ercent of its exorts are manufactureoos of 25ic5 $4 ercent are 5i53tec5 roucts incluin aerosace

comuters non3electronic mac5inery electronic3telecommunications2eaons c5emicals 5armaceuticals an scientiAc instruments,according to.'. ("e%icos 'ational !tatistics .nstitute96 "e%ico is no- inserted vertically into the most important segments of global

production chains, as 73 percent of F*. inflo-s received by the country go to manufacturing6HT5an:s to all t5esec5anes t5e country is no2 one of t5e 2orls most imortant exortlatforms an Ian ieal base from 25ic5 to suly international mar:ets,/Rupert !tadler, chairman of the Board of "anagement of #udi #, told the Financial Times in !eptember 23026HToday, this nationof 00D million people is the leading -orld e%porter of flat screen TLs and the second leading e%porter of refrigerators6 .t is also themajor supplier of medical devices to the &6!6 market, the eighth producer and the fourth e%porter of ne- vehicles, as -ell as themain supplier of auto parts to the &6!6 market, -here 00 percent of all cars and light trucks are produced in "e%ico6 "oreover, oftotal &6!6 imports, 2D percent of automotive products, 21 percent of chemicals and 20 percent of electronics are coming from the

other side of the countrys southern border6Hlobal automa:ers 5a+e announce ne2 irectin+estments in Mexico of about J1- billion ma:in Mexico t5e 2orlsfourt5 biest exorter of automobilesbehind ermany, Japan and !outh Oorea, -ith e%ports

e%pected to be around 260D million vehicles by the end of 23026

Mexico gro!ing 8 most recent e"ience pro"es7ico, 6-19(abriela, -rites for #riona *aily !tar, +"e%ico gro-ing on manufacturers,/June 0D, 2301,http455astarnet6com5business5local5me%ico$gro-ing$on$manufacturers5article87eDE3DeA$1?eA$?2fd$b3ea$c01e23cc?cfd6html9 :arbeck

P"ade in ChinaP is giving -ay to P:echo en "e%ico,P attendees at the #riona$"e%ico CommissionQs plenary session heard Thursday6 Rising fuel

costs, coupled with higher labor costs in China, make North America more appealing to

manufacturing companies,said Christopher ilson, associate of the "e%ico .nstitute for the oodro- ilson Center6That is a financial

boon for the &nited !tates $ and especially for states along the "e%ican border $ because the shorter supply chain means bigger

profits, hetold the cro-d of #riona and !onora business leaders and politicians meeting in !cottsdale6For every dollar spent on manufacturing in

China, the &6!6 earns D cents, ilson said6 .f that company manufactures in "e%ico, the earnings are D3 cents6 Mexico:s economy is

gro!ing faster than the +#0# economy, an although ours is much larger, ;!e ha"e

a chance to tap into that gro!ing economy,; ilson said6:e said monopoly breakups, education reforms and a

pact among the three main political parties could have a positive effect on "e%icoQs credit rating, making it more attractive to foreign investors6PThe

hypothesis of saying Qe have to go to ChinaQ is fading,P said Juan Carlo Briseo, -ho is -ith the "e%ican "inistry of conomyQs )ro "e%ico
http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2013/jan/mexico.cfmhttp://azstarnet.com/business/local/mexico-growing-on-manufacturers/article_6e4804e7-35e7-52fd-b0ea-c13e20cc5cfd.htmlhttp://azstarnet.com/business/local/mexico-growing-on-manufacturers/article_6e4804e7-35e7-52fd-b0ea-c13e20cc5cfd.htmlhttp://azstarnet.com/business/local/mexico-growing-on-manufacturers/article_6e4804e7-35e7-52fd-b0ea-c13e20cc5cfd.htmlhttp://www.siteselection.com/issues/2013/jan/mexico.cfmhttp://azstarnet.com/business/local/mexico-growing-on-manufacturers/article_6e4804e7-35e7-52fd-b0ea-c13e20cc5cfd.htmlhttp://azstarnet.com/business/local/mexico-growing-on-manufacturers/article_6e4804e7-35e7-52fd-b0ea-c13e20cc5cfd.html


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program6 Mexico has emerge as a leaer in the manufacturing of automo(iles,

meical e"ices, electronics an aerospace components# 'o- China is casting a curious eye on the

country to see -hat itQs doing right, Briseo said6.n !onora, -here the average age is 2?, aerospace manufacturing has taken off in

the past couple of years with big companies readying to announce further expansion of existing

operations6Sonora has five international airports, two with cargo capacity, Brise

o noted, making ita natural attraction6.ts pro%imity to #riona as an e%port entry-ay is a selling point, he said6The overvie- -as presented in anticipation of

todayQs sessions, -hen committees -ill meet to map out or approve joint plans and ventures in the areas of economic development, energy, real estate

and infrastructure6Just a little over a decade ago, the focus on these commission meetings -as to school "e%ico on ho- to do business -ith the &nited

!tates, said Bruce right, associate vice president for university research at the &niversity of #riona6P:o- refreshing for you in the !onora business

-orld to hear us talking about ho- to do business -ith "e%ico,P he said6The #riona$"e%ico Commission meeting is being hosted by #riona ov6 Jan

Bre-er and !onora ov6 uillermo )adres6The t-o governors are e%pected to address the cro-d today and -ill host a joint ne-s conference6

Mexico/s economy is gro!ing an strong!pencer, 2301 (


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Mexico 6/ By selling to the vehicle manufacturers "e%ican operations, !"# members can find an additional route to reach

!outh and Central #merican markets6HThere are t-o e%cellent upcoming opportunities to e%plore the

"e%ican market6For the first, you dont even need to leave the &nited !tates6HThe annual !"# !ho-, held each year in early

'ovember, dra-s more than 013,333 visitors, and 2?@ of all buyers attending the trade$only event come from outside the &nited

!tates, including large numbers from "e%ico and other


11/82


Mexico Econ "+ 3 Exts =$ 3 Resilient

Mexico BThe httpia&sipa&"ol$bia&edgreat(debate(+ill($exi"o(ass$e("lear(leadership(latin(a$eri"aJ/ave3seoMexico/s recent economic performance an its s!ift reco"ery from the financialcrisis are seen (y many analysts as near-miraculous# While the Bra?ilian economicgro!th has slo!e, Mexico has (egun to catch up to atin merica/s most-toutestate# fter experiencing a"erage gro!th of (arely 2< per year from 2***-2*1*,Mexico/s $%& has increase (y 9 percent in the last year# Mexico (oasts a s'ille

!or'force, lo! costs an proximity to the +nite 0tates# In"estment has (oomeespite the ongoing rug !ars, corruption an a !ea' rule of la!#

More e+ience 3 continue forein irect in+estment in t5estatus Kuo ma:es Mexico resilient to economic instabilityBanerase!s 13 (January 03, 2301, +"e%ico Catching &p hile QBooming BrailQ Falters/,http455---6banderasne-s6com501305nb$me%economysurges$brailfalters6htm9 ave1seo Bra?il, +hi"h overtoo7 5ritainlast %ear to be"o$e the +orlds sixth largest e"ono$%> has (een hit (y !ea'ening hineseeman for commoities, !hile ri"al Mexico, the ne! arling of foreign in"estors,is posting increasingly strong gro!th#HThe figures spea' for themsel"es#HBra?il, ;orthe last de"ade atin A$eri"as n"hallenged behe$oth>is expecte to sho! gro!th of only onepercent ;or 2012, o!n from 2#G percent in 2*11 an a si??ling G#H percent in 2*1*,a""ording to o"ial esti$ates&@By contrast, Mexico, the perennial unerachie"er in atin

merica, is suenly eying a position among the !orl/s 1* largest economies !ithproecte gro!th of (et!een 3#H an four percent#HMexico too' a massi"e hit fromthe 2**G-2** financial crisis, than's in large part to its proximity to the +nite0tates, (ut its economy contracte a !hopping six percent in 2**JHBut a hugereuction in Mexico/s ;country cost; = the cost of oing (usiness there = spar'ean impressi"e turnaroun that attracte in"estment in its indstrial se"tor> "reated obs> andadded vale to exports&@Sebastian5rio::o> head o; sovereign ratings at Standard Q Poors ;or atin A$eri"a thesto"7 $ar7et index tra"7ing atin A$eri"an sto"7s>J said the t+o "ontries have ver% di=erent gro+th patterns&
http://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/great-debate-will-mexico-assume-clear-leadership-latin-americahttp://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/great-debate-will-mexico-assume-clear-leadership-latin-americahttp://www.banderasnews.com/1301/nb-mexeconomysurges-brazilfalters.htmhttp://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/great-debate-will-mexico-assume-clear-leadership-latin-americahttp://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/great-debate-will-mexico-assume-clear-leadership-latin-americahttp://www.banderasnews.com/1301/nb-mexeconomysurges-brazilfalters.htm


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***US/Sino War


13/82


US3Sino War 0rontline

1 3 9o US3C5ina 2arD bot5 ont 2ant con#ict an neotiation

etersRh 0en 1$is a pro;essor in the S"hool o; International Stdies and the dept% dire"tor o; the Center ;orInternational and Strategi" Stdies at 5eiing .niversit%& No one +ants a Clash The Ne+ or7 Ti$es& '(3(12&http+++&n%ti$es&"o$roo$;ordebate20120'02are(+e(headed(;or(a("old(+ar(+ith("hinano(one(+ants(a("old(+ar(bet+een(the(s(and("hina-e%esA series o; events in re"ent $onths see$ Hite o$inos ;or China(.&S& relations& ast Nove$ber> President Oba$avo+ed that the .&S& +old re$ain a po+er in the Asia(Pa"iK" region ;or the rest o; this "entr%> +hile the se"retar%o; state> *illar% -odha$ Clinton> de"lared that A$eri"a +as pivoting to Asia& The "rrent stando= in the Soth China

Sea adds to the ;oreboding& The U.S.3C5ina relations5i is"o$plex> bt lucrati+e for bot5sies& 9eit5er nation 2ants confrontation. This rebalan"ing in the Asia(Pa"iK" region is notne"essaril% the ne+ .&S& strateg% a;ter the $ilitar% pllot ;ro$ IraH and A;ghanistan> bt it does neHivo"all%signal the shi;t o; A$eri"as attention ;ro$ #rope and the !iddle #ast to Asia& /hat ;ollo+s is A$eri"as ne+ andKr$ $ilitar% restr"tring in the region setting Dar+in Port in Astralia as the ne+ sb$arine "orps base> rotating$ilitar% presen"e to the Philippines> shering in the Pentagons global se"rit% progra$s that ver% spe"iK"all%target China& No+ the Asian version o; $issile de;ense is nder intense dis"ssion> re$inis"ent o; the A$eri"an

plan to "reate a $issile inter"eption net+or7 all over #rope E a plan that nnerved the +orlds other great po+er>-ssia& Against this tense ba"7drop> h$an rights isses are no+ "reating ri;ts bet+een /ashington and 5eiing&A;ter a lo"al poli"e o"ial> /ang in> reportedl% snea7ed into the .&S& Conslate in Chengd in earl% Febrar%> theblind h$an rights a"tivist Chen there is little sign that the t+o nations "old realisti"all% rea"h an agree$ent abot h$an rights

Hestions> as there is slight roo$ to $anever& &eiin belie+es t5at t5e U.S. criticisms o+er5uman ri5ts are eliberate an 2ell lotte aime at abolis5in t5eCommunist ?artys rling legiti$a"% and detra"ting ;ro$ Chinas re(e$ergen"e& There;ore Chinas rlers$ight Knd it $"h harder to ba"7 do+n over h$an rights "lashes. >o2e+er t5ere is little 2orryt5at t5e t2o o2ers 2ill collie into a Ine2 col 2ar& First o; all C5inasaut5oritarian system 5as been tremenously mobili,e for internationalinteration& &eiin 5as been retty conser+ati+eand doesnt +el"o$e de$o"rati:ation&&ut it oes not strictly a5ere to traitional communism eit5er& An% ne+"on;rontation li7e the "old +ar +old ris7 a hge ba"7lash in China b% greatl% da$aging the better(o= Chinese

people& S"h a "oni"t "old lti$atel% nder$ine the Co$$nist Part%s rling legiti$a"%& Se"ond> t5eo2er isarity bet2een Was5inton an C5ina 5asnt siniAcantlynarro2e rearless of C5inese ac5ie+ementsin the past de"ades& !% vie+ is that&eiin remains an aolescent o2er an s5oul learn 5o2 to be a reato2er rat5er t5an un2isely rus5in to any confrontation.Thogh so$e Chinese+ant the nation to assert itsel; $ore ;or"e;ll%> t5e 5ue isarity in o2er s5oul :eeC5ina in lace& C5ina is in no osition to c5allene t5e U.S. 5t China +ill be $oreenthsiasti" and straight;o+ard abot addressing and sa;egarding its legal interests& Cometitionbet2een Was5inton an &eiin 2ill intensify but t5at oes notautomatically mean t5at t5e relations5i 2ill be unmanaeable& astl%> the "%"leo; a"tion and rea"tion has $ostl% trned ot to be ;rit;l ;or the .&S& and China& Frther "o$petition is pro$ising&

The .&S& doesnt +ant to pt China in a "orner> or ;or"e 5eiing to stand p desperatel%& The ealins o+er

many t5orny issues 5a+e ro+e t5at eac5 sie 2ants to 5anle t5econ#ict not escalate it& Chen it see$s that both sides are strggling to rea"t "onstr"tivel%&

In the %ears to "o$e> C5ina3U.S. relations 2ill continue to be +ery comlicatebut also +ery imortant. T5e lue to :ee t5ese t2o nations toet5er isnot ramatism only but mutual interest L esecially in trae.
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/02/are-we-headed-for-a-cold-war-with-china/no-one-wants-a-cold-war-between-the-us-and-chinahttp://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/02/are-we-headed-for-a-cold-war-with-china/no-one-wants-a-cold-war-between-the-us-and-chinahttp://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/02/are-we-headed-for-a-cold-war-with-china/no-one-wants-a-cold-war-between-the-us-and-chinahttp://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/02/are-we-headed-for-a-cold-war-with-china/no-one-wants-a-cold-war-between-the-us-and-chinahttp://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/02/are-we-headed-for-a-cold-war-with-china/no-one-wants-a-cold-war-between-the-us-and-china


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$ 3 9o US3C5ina 2ar in SCS any tensions from miscalc aremene t5rou5 neotiations if miscalc nu:e 2ar t5reat 2asreal t5eir imacts from miscalc s5oul+e 5aene alreayCarl%le A&T5ayer 1'. Carl%le A& Tha%er is #$erits Pro;essor at the .niversit% o;Ne+ Soth /ales> Astralian De;en"e For"e A"ade$%> Canberra& The ideas in this

paper +ere Krst presented at the Annal Con;eren"e o; the Asso"iation ;or AsianStdies held at San Diego> 22 !ar"h 2013& /h% China and the .S +ont go to +arover the Soth China Sea #ast Asia For$& !a% 13 2013&http+++&eastasia;or$&org20130'13+h%("hina(and(the(s(+ont(go(to(+ar(over(the(soth("hina(sea-e%esChinas in"reasing assertiveness in the Soth China Sea is "hallenging .S pri$a"% in the Asia Pa"iK"& @Chinesesailors stand on a Kshing vessel setting sail ;or the Spratl% Islands> an ar"hipelago dispted bet+een China andother "ontries in"lding 9ietna$ and the Philippines Photo AAPJ@#ven be;ore /ashington annon"ed its o"ial

poli"% o; rebalan"ing its ;or"e postre to the Asia Pa"iK"> t5e Unite States 5a unerta:enstes to strent5en its military ostureb% deplo%ing $ore n"lear atta"7 sb$arines tot5e reionand negotiating arrange$ents +ith Astralia to rotate !arines throgh Dar+in&Sin"e then> the.nited States has deplo%ed Co$bat ittoral Ships to Singapore and is negotiating ne+ arrange$ents ;or greater

$ilitar% a""ess to the Philippines&@5t t5ese e+eloments o not resae arme

con#ict bet2een C5ina an t5e Unite States& The Peoples iberation Ar$% Nav% has been"ir"$spe"t in its involve$ent in Soth China Sea territorial disptes> and t5e Unite States 5asbeen careful to a+oi bein entrae by reional allies in t5eir territorialisutes 2it5 C5ina& "rme con#ict bet2een C5ina an t5e Unite Statesinthe Soth China Sea aears unli:ely&@Another> $ore probable> s"enario is that bot5 countries2ill An a mous +i+eni enablin t5em to collaborate to maintain securityin t5e Sout5 C5ina Sea& The Hbama ad$inistration has repeatedl% em5asise t5at itsolicy of rebalancin to "sia is not irecte at containin C5ina& For exa$ple>Ad$iral Sa$el & o"7lear III> Co$$ander o; the .S Pa"iK" Co$$and> re"entl% stated> Uthere has also been

"riti"is$ that the -ebalan"e is a strateg% o; "ontain$ent& This is not the "ase V it is a stratey ofcollaboration an cooeration&@*o+ever> a revie+ o; past .SWChina $ilitar%(to($ilitar% intera"tionindi"ates that an agree$ent to ointl% $anage se"rit% in the Soth China Sea is nli7el% be"ase o; "ontiningstrategi" $istrst bet+een the t+o "ontries& This is also be"ase the "rrents o; regionalis$ are gro+ing stronger& @

As s"h> a third s"enario is $ore li7el% than the previos t+o that C5ina an t5e Unite States2ill maintain a relations5i of cooeration an friction& In this s"enario> bot5countries 2or: searately to secure t5eir intereststhrogh $ltilateral instittions s"has the #ast Asia S$$it> the AS#AN De;en"e !inisters !eeting Pls and the #nlarged AS#AN !ariti$e For$&

&ut t5ey also continue to enae eac5 ot5er on oints of mutual interest.The Pentagon has "onsistentl% soght to 7eep "hannels o; "o$$ni"ation open +ith China throgh threeestablished bilateral $e"hanis$s De;ense Consltative Tal7s> the !ilitar% !ariti$e Consltative Agree$ent!!CAJ> and the De;ense Poli"% Coordination Tal7s&@On the one hand> these $ltilateral $e"hanis$s reveal ver%little abot .SWChina $ilitar% relations& !ilitar%(to($ilitar% "onta"ts bet+een the t+o "ontries have gone throghrepeated "%"les o; "ooperation and sspension> $eaning that it has not been possible to isolate prel% $ilitar%(to($ilitar% "onta"ts ;ro$ their politi"al and strategi" settings&@On the other hand> the "hannels have a""o$plished the;ollo+ing "ontining ex"hange visits b% high(level de;en"e o"ials reglar De;ense Consltation Tal7s "ontining+or7ing(level dis"ssions nder the !!CA agree$ent on the U(point "onsenss and no serios naval in"identssin"e the 2004 .SNS I$pe""able a=air& The% have also helped to ensre "ontining ex"hange visits b% senior$ilitar% o"ers the initiation o; a Strategi" Se"rit% Dialoge as part o; the $inisterial(level Strategi" Q #"ono$i"

Dialoge pro"ess agree$ent to hold $eetings bet+een "oast gards and agree$ent on a ne+ +or7ing grop todra;t prin"iples to establish a ;ra$e+or7 ;or $ilitar%(to($ilitar% "ooperation& @So the botto$ line is that> esiteonoin frictions in t5eir relations5i t5e Unite States an C5ina 2illcontinue enain 2it5 eac5 ot5er& &ot5 sies unerstan t5at military3to3military contacts are a critical comonento; bilateral engage$ent& /ithot s"h intera"tionthere is a ris7 that $istrst bet+een the t+o $ilitaries "old spill over and have a $aor negative i$pa"t onbilateral relations in general& 5t strategi" $istrst +ill probabl% persist in the absen"e o; greater transparen"% in

$ilitar%(to($ilitar% relations& In s$> Sino3"merican relationsin the Soth China Sea are more
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-south-china-sea/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-south-china-sea/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-south-china-sea/http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-south-china-sea/


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li:ely to be c5aracterise by cooeration an friction t5an a $ods vivendi o;"ollaboration or> a +orst("ase s"enario> arme con#ict&@

' 3 9o ris: of Sino bac:las5 3 Multilateral o2er balances in"sia ro+e coexistence of C5ina an US in#uence ossible

ohn T&&ennett 1$& Senior Congressional -eporter at De;ense Ne+s @ PastD#F#NS# Q NATIONA S#C.-IT CO--#SPOND#NT at .&S& Ne+s Q /orld -eport @Senior De;ense -eporter at The *ill @ Senior -eporter ( Pentagon Q National Se"rit%5eat at De;ense Ne+s @ #d"ation The ohns *op7ins .niversit% @ Appala"hian State.niversit%& Top Astralian Diplo$at .&S&(China /ar /old 5e XDisastrosX -SS FeedPrint> .S Ne+s& April 2'> 2012&http+++&sne+s&"o$ne+sblogsdot$il201202'top(astralian(diplo$at(s("hina(+ar(+old(be(disastros-e%es/ar bet+een China and the .nited States +old be YdisastrosY ;or the entire +orld> sa%s "ustralia +ho also suests t5ata con#ict bet2een t5e lobal iants isunli:ely&@@As Chinese e"ono$i" and $ilitar% po+er((and its global inen"e((gro+s> .&S& anal%sts> la+$a7ers>and so$e Asian leaders +orr% 5eiing "old "lash +ith the +orldXs sitting lone sperpo+er the .nited States& @A +ar

bet+een the eagle and the dragon +old be YdisastrosY ;or both nations> the Asia(Pa"iK" region> and the entireglobe> 5ob Carr> Astralian $inister ;or ;oreign a=airs> told a ;or$ /ednesda% in /ashington&@#xpert ;ore"aststhat China "old "hallenge A$eri"aXs per"h atop the global tote$ pole are based on even $ore e"ono$i" gro+th inChina and a"ross the Asia(Pa"iK" region& The Oba$a ad$inistrationXs ongoing shi;t o; .&S& ;oreign and nationalse"rit% poli"ies ;ro$ the !iddle #ast to the Asia(Pa"iK" is based on a belie; that $"h o; the histor% o; this "entr%

+ill be +ritten there&@5t suc5 reictions$ight be oB t5e mar:> sa%s Carr> +ho spends a$pleti$e etting arond the vast region&@T5e Unite States ominate muc5 of t5e $)t5century an t5e early years of t5e $1st.&ut t5e next %% years mi5t notbelon to anyone>Y Carr said at the Center ;or Strategi" and International Stdies& @The levers o; globaland e"ono$i" po+er are trending to+ard being $ore +idel% dispersed than so$e experts predi"t> Carr sa%s&@*e

also noted C5inese oNcials collecti+e resonse to t5e aministration s5iftto2ar t5eir bac:yar 5as been mute suestin t5e U.S. an C5ina2ill be able to coexist&@Carr sho+ed ;e+ signs o; +orr% abot +hat li7el% +old be a blood% and "ostl%.&S&(China +ar> sonding a $"h di=erent tone than did Singapore de;ense "hie; Ng #ng *en dring an April visit to/ashington&@Ng rged in"reased A$eri"an engage$ent in Asia> +arning that an%thing else "old spa+n deadl%.&S&(China tensions&@Dring an April spee"h in /ashington> Ng "alled the .nited States a Yresident po+erY in

Asia& 5t he also $ade "lear Singaporean and other regional leaders ;eel the U.S. an C5ina musten5ance military3to3military contacts 25ic5 t5ey belie+e 2ill 5el re+enta 2ar&@It +as "lear ;ro$ several o; NgXs "o$$ents in April that Singaporean and other regional leaders arein"reasingl% "on"erned abot a .&S&(China +ar&@5t Carr> +ho spent the opening part o; his prepared re$ar7s

nders"oring the .&S&(Astralian partnership> "alls a risin C5ina a oo t5in forhis nation> t5e"sia3?aciAc realm an t5e 2orl& st ho+ ChinaXs "ontined rise goes> he sa%s> +ill dependlargel% on 5eiingXs o+n a"tions&@

4 3 US3C5ina Relations increasin.

reitens 6/11 OSheena Chestnt> A"ade$% S"holar> *arvard A"ade$% ;orInternational and Area Stdies> *arvard .niversit%> 5roo7ings&ed> ,1113>http+++&broo7ings&edresear"hopinions20130,11(s("hina(relations(asia(allian"es(greitensZ *eIn dis"ssing this relationship> A$eri"an pbli" intelle"tals have be"o$e ;ond o; re;eren"ing Th"%dides a""onto; the Peloponnesian /ar bet+een Athens and Sparta to isse +arnings abot the ris7 o; "oni"t> and to o=eradvi"e on ho+ one "an best $anage the geopoliti"al tensions that have histori"all% attended the rise o; a ne+ great

po+er&[1Z 7eaers on bot5 sies t5e arument oes must be acutely a2areof t5e ilemma t5ey face if t5ey are to a+oi it. Re#ectin t5is iscourse
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/dotmil/2012/04/25/top-australian-diplomat-us-china-war-would-be-disastroushttp://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/dotmil/2012/04/25/top-australian-diplomat-us-china-war-would-be-disastroushttp://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/06/11-us-china-relations-asia-alliances-greitenshttp://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/06/11-us-china-relations-asia-alliances-greitenshttp://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/dotmil/2012/04/25/top-australian-diplomat-us-china-war-would-be-disastroushttp://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/dotmil/2012/04/25/top-australian-diplomat-us-china-war-would-be-disastroushttp://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/06/11-us-china-relations-asia-alliances-greitenshttp://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/06/11-us-china-relations-asia-alliances-greitens


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as 2ell as t5eir o2n researc5 into t5e rise of re+ious reat o2ersC5inese sc5olars an oNcials 5a+e consistently calle for a I9e2 Tye ofreat ?o2er Relations5iG P

xinxin auo uanxiQ bet2eenWas5inton an &eiin t5at a+ois t5e tensions t5at surroune astrisin o2ers.O$Many of t5e rescritions for a+oiin con#ict call for t5e t2o leaers to

sen time enery an iscussion focuse on creatin Istrateic trustGP ,5anlue xinrenQ in t5e bilateral relations5i.O'In his Febrar% 2012address in /ashington> President \i inping "alled ;or the enhan"e$ent o; $tal trst as the Krst o; ;or $aorprin"iples pon +hi"h A$eri"an and Chinese leaders shold base their relationship&[Z In a 2012 5roo7ingsInstittion report> Menneth ieberthal and /ang isi arge that Bstrategi" distrst is rooted in the narro+ing gap inpo+er bet+een the .&S& and China di=eren"es in politi"al traditions and vales and ins"ient nderstanding o;

ea"h others poli"%$a7ing str"tres and pro"esses&['Z ;n an eBort to buil strateic trustforums for iscussion an t5e en5ancement of mutual unerstanin 5a+emultilieD o+er sixty formal ialoues bet2een t5e Unite States an t5e?eoles Reublic of C5ina no2 occur eac5 year.

"n it 2on retired !aor BChina Insisten"e onNo(First(.se o; N"lear /eapons> China Se"rit% /orld Se"rit% Institte ChinaProgra$> http+++&ir"hina&orgenne+svie+&asp?id]03ZIn $% vie+> 9o30irst UseNF.J 5as been a t5eoretical illar of C5inas nuclearolicy. T5is rationale of 90U of nuclear 2eaons ser+es &eiins foremostsecurity interests. ;t also contributes to t5e maintenance of 2orlstrateic stability& T5ere are at least A+e reasons to exlain 25y C5ina 5asconsistently stuc: to t5at rincile an 2ill continue to o so in t5efuture&.nderl%ing Prin"iples

First> 90U 5i5li5ts C5inas 5iloso5ical belief t5at nuclear 2eaons canonly be use to ser+e one urose> t5at of retaliation aainst a nuclearattac:> pending "o$plete n"lear disar$a$ent& Indeed> their extre$el% large destr"tive "apabilities rendern"lear +eapons the onl% trl% inh$ane +eapon o; $ass destr"tion and are o; little other se to China& Fa"ed+ith .&S& n"lear bla"7$ail in the 14'0s> China had no alternative to developing its o+n n"lear "apabilit% so as toaddress the real danger o; being a target o; a n"lear stri7e& 5t even so> 5eiing vo+ed that having a n"lear"apabilit% +old onl% serve this single prpose&

0rom t5e +ery beinnin of acKuirin a nuclear caability &eiinannounce t5at it 2oul ne+er be t5e Arst to use nuclear 2eaons unerany conitions it also pledged n"onditionall% not to se n"lear +eapons against an% non(n"lear +eaponstates. T5is claim is not merely r5etoric t5at cannot be +eriAe as someWestern units accuse. Hn t5e contrary C5inas nuclear rationale 5asetermine t5e efensi+e nature of its nuclear force its osture si,e an

oerational octrine> +hi"h have been highl% visible and have stood the test o; ti$e& It is in this sensethat China is NOT a n"lear +eapon state in the /estern sense& .nli7e all the other n"lear +eapon states> ;orexa$ple> C5ina 5as ne+er intene to use its nuclear caability to ma:e ufor t5e in eNciency of con+entional caabilities +is33+is ot5er 2orlo2ers nor 5as C5ina an interest in oinin a nuclear arms race 2it5 ot5ernuclear states& And than7s to the insisten"e o; this poli"% based on NF.> C5ina succees inreucin t5e nuclear element to t5e minimum in its relations 2it5 ot5ernuclear nations a+oiin a ossible nuclear arms race an contributin to


17/82


t5e lobal strateic stability at lare& I; this poli"% serves +ell its "ore se"rit% interests> +h%shold 5eiing "hange it?


18/82


***US/Russian Relations


19/82


US3Russian Relations 0rontline

0irst US3Russian Relations are stable no2 3 relations are

resilient

CIC 7-30-13Y.S(-ssia -elations It Cold 5e /orse> Canadian International Con"il>

httpopen"anada&org;eatresthe(thin7(tan7intervie+s(s(rssia(relations(it("old(be(+orse J

The relationship today isnt good> bt its nowhere near as bad as it could be. As difficult as

things can sometimes be with Moscow W and the% have been ver% di"lt latel% and as

diametrically opposed President Putin and President Obama and their teams seem to

be, fundamentally, Russia and America are not out to get one another . You could imagine a

world in which they were, and it would be a very different and far, far worse world.

Its important to remember that Russia is not our enemy. Only a few years ago, at the

time of the !""# $re%set& there were opportunities for cooperation on e'erything from

security something which we actually started to see with Russian logistical support for

(ATO forces in Afghanistan,and which was critical at a time when relations with Pakistan were not good to

Iran to counter-terrorism, anti-narcotics, anti-trafficking, and anti-piracy. And of course, there was the new nuclear treaty.

hat!s a huge amount of progress on the security side. "n the economic side, we brought #ussia into the $", another

huge step forward. he strength of the relationship today is still nowhere near where it could or should be. ).*. trade

with Russia is about forty billion dollars a year,which, for perspective, is less than half of one percent

of total %.&. trade. It!s less than two percent of #ussia!s total trade. &o the trade relationship is not a ma'or factor in either

country!s economic success. (ut at the same time, theres a lot of potential these are two 'ery big

economies. Russia, depending on how you measure, is around the tenth largest

economy in the world. It has an increasingly wealthy middle class thats interested in

consuming more American goods.)ord automobiles, American heavy e*uipment, American consumer

products generally+ they certainly like American intellectual property, from television shows to computer software.

"n no ris: of ba relations escalatin to con#ict

CIC 7-30-13Y.S(-ssia -elations It Cold 5e /orse> Canadian International Con"il>

httpopen"anada&org;eatresthe(thin7(tan7intervie+s(s(rssia(relations(it("old(be(+orse J

#ight now, the ).*.%Russia relationship is caught in a trap of mutual distrust. +oth sidesare relati'ely con'inced that theyre taling to the wrong person.he %nited &tates

thinks that if they 'ust wait out Putin, or fund some people that might be able to replace him,

then maybe in a couple of years there will be a much better #ussian government with which

they can negotiate. "n the other side, you have Putin thinking, I!m tougher than these guys,

I!ve been around longer than these guys, I!m 'ust going to embarrass them on one issue after

another and then soon enough I won!t have to deal with them!.
http://opencanada.org/features/the-think-tank/interviews/u-s-russia-relations-it-could-be-worse/http://opencanada.org/features/the-think-tank/interviews/u-s-russia-relations-it-could-be-worse/http://opencanada.org/features/the-think-tank/interviews/u-s-russia-relations-it-could-be-worse/http://opencanada.org/features/the-think-tank/interviews/u-s-russia-relations-it-could-be-worse/


20/82


+ut e'en during the -old ar, when we had two political systems that une/ui'ocally

defined the other as a failure, we still managed to wor together in se'eral areas, and

we ha'e many more bilateral ties now.

"n alternate causality to US3Russian Relations 3 missileefense&usiness Recorer $)1$ [Pa7istani bsiness agen"% ( "ites a.S(-ssia +or7ing grop that stdied ho+ $issile de;ense relates to.S(-ssia "ooperation> Y!issile de;en"e poisoned .S(-ssia relationsreportY> Febrar% 0> http+++&bre"order&"o$top(ne+s1(;ront(top(ne+s1,($issile(de;en"e(poisoned(s(rssia(relations(report&ht$lZ/AS*IN sa%s a report b% ;or$er top o"ials ;ro$ both sides o; the Atlanti". Recent

5ealines in bot5 countries 5a+e been reminiscent of t5e Col War 2it5t5e Russians t5reatenin to eloy missiles aime at counterin aroose US missile s5iel an t5e "mericans resonin t5at t5ey 2illbuil t5e system come 25at may& The planned .S shield> endorsed b% NATO> +old deplo% .Sinter"eptor $issiles in and arond #rope in +hat /ashington sa%s is a la%ered prote"tion against $issiles that

"old be Kred b% "ontries li7e Iran& Mosco2 says t5is coul unermine its securityi; itbe"o$es "apable o; netrali:ing -ssiaXs n"lear deterrent& No+ an international "o$$ission has been +or7ing onthe $atter ;or t+o %ears that has designed a basi" "on"ept ;or "ooperation +ith the help o; $ilitar% pro;essionals;ro$ both sides&


21/82


***emocracy


22/82


emocracy "+antae 0rontline

0irst emocracy is unsustainable333inescaable ebt leas toeconomic collase

ams, 11 [!i7e> editor ;or Natral Ne+s> B/h% de$o"ra"% is ;ailing A$eri"a>'1011> http+++&natralne+s&"o$0323,^de$o"ra"%^A$eri"a&ht$lZ ST-M#-

/h% emocracy isn t5e emocratic rocess of

electin reresentati+es is a oularity contest& The +oters ine+itably enu suortin 25ic5e+er la2ma:ers oBer t5e best 5anouts ri5t no2rearless of t5e lon3term conseKuences to t5e nation& 9oting> in other +ords> is acontest base on s5ort3term re2ars rat5er t5an lon3term +ision& Notsrprisingl%> +hen the voters go to the polls> the% tend to ele"t the person +ho pro$ises the$ the $ost right no+&

No+> itXs "r"ial to re"ogni:e this si$ple e"ono$i" ;a"t 9o o+ernment can oBer somet5in toone erson 2it5out Arst ta:in it from anot5er. So t5e more 5anoutsentitlements an beneAts any o+ernment oBers t5e more it mustconAscate from ot5ers in orer to meet its obliations to t5e +oters. T5is

creates a o2n2ar siral of entitlements leain to inescaable ebt&5e"ase sooner or later> govern$ents al+a%s rn ot o; other peopleXs $one%& &ut t5at oesn most +oters 2ill c5oose t5e fantasy caniate... esecially if itmeans more money in t5eir oc:ets.

"n emocracies are unstable333free exression leas tocollaseMunt, JG [-obert> athor on histor% stdies> BIs De$o"ra% Stable? Co$pared to

/hat? 144> http+++&stier&net+ritingde$stabstabilit%&ht$Z ST-M#-Contemorary oubts about emocracy follo2 t5e lon traition of re3moern olitical t5ou5t> a tradition that pointed both to the disadvantages o; de$o"rati" regi$esand the advantages o; non(de$o"rati" regi$es& emocratic reimes allo2 for t5eexression of t5e rane of +ie2s 5el by t5e members of a oliticalcommunity. "n it 5as often been 5el t5at in a number of 2ays t5isma:es o+ernment iNcult. 0or one t5in t5e eole are li:ely to beresistant to t5e emans of o+ernment an esecially to taxes anmilitary ser+ice. &ut eBecti+e o+ernment reKuires t5at o+ernments ayt5eir bills an mobili,e armies. Critics of emocracy suose t5atmonarc5s an aristocrats> +ho have greater experien"e +ith and training ;or politi"al $atters +ill>be better able to ras an eal 2it5 t5ese necessities of olitics & For another

thing> the eole are li:ely to be i+ie about t5e roer irection ofo+ernment. T5is leas to t2o ossible roblems. ;f oliticalcircumstances allo2 one rou an t5en anot5er to trium5 o+er anot5era o+ernment mi5t aot a series of raical c5anes in irection& I;> on theother hand> politi"al "ir"$stan"es $a7e it di"lt ;or one grop to gain po+er> the reslt is li7el% to be stale$ateither +a%> it +ill be di"lt ;or de$o"rati" regi$es to adopt "onsistent and e=e"tive pbli" poli"ies& .nder

;avorable "onditions> "oni"t in or paral%sis o; de$o"rati" regi$es $a% not be too serios& 5t> unerunfa+orable conitions t5ese reimes 2ill it is 5el be unable eit5er torotect t5emsel+es or ser+e t5e common oo. T5e result t5en is li:ely
http://www.naturalnews.com/032346_democracy_America.htmlhttp://www.stier.net/writing/demstab/stability.htmhttp://www.naturalnews.com/032346_democracy_America.htmlhttp://www.stier.net/writing/demstab/stability.htm


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to be issatisfaction issent an e+entually instability& On"e opposition to theregi$e arises> a de$o"ra"% is> again> li7el% to Knd it di"lt to respond in +a%s that preserves itsel;& De$o"rati"regi$es are o;ten rel"tant to se ;or"e against their o+n poplation& And> even +hen the% do so> the% are not asli7el% to be as brtall% de"isive and potent as a di"tator +ho is not "onstrained b% the rle o; la+ or poplar opinion&

That> +e all thin7> is to the good& 5t in or pre;eren"e ;or benign govern$ent> +e shold not ass$e that aoo o+ernment is al2ays t5e most stable o+ernment.

?romotin emocracy fails an bac:Ares333resistance leas tocon#ictsAo(s(a!m, *HOEric is rofessor emeritus of economic an social 5istory oft5e Uni+ersity of 7onon at &ir:bec: IT5e aners ofexortin emocracyG 1/$$/)-http+++&thegardian&"o$+orld200'an22sa&"o$$ent STRVERAlthogh President 5shXs n"o$pro$ising se"ond inagral address does not so $"h as $ention the +ords IraH>A;ghanistan and the +ar on terror> he and his spporters "ontine to engage in a planned reordering o; the +orld&The +ars in IraH and A;ghanistan are bt one part o; a spposedl% niversal e=ort to "reate +orld order b%

sreain emocracy.This idea is not merely Kuixotic 3 it is anerous.T5er5etoric imlies t5at emocracy is alicable in a stanarise+esternJform t5at it can succee e+ery25ere t5at it can remey toay the #nglish evellers broad"ast the po+er;lidea that Yall govern$ent is in the ;ree "onsent o; the peopleY& The% $eant votes ;or all& O; "orse> uni+ersalsuBrae oes not uarantee any articular olitical result an electionscannot e+en ensure t5eir o2n eretuation( +itness the /ei$ar -epbli"& #le"toralde$o"ra"% is also nli7el% to prod"e ot"o$es "onvenient to hege$oni" or i$perial po+ers& I; the IraH +ar haddepended on the ;reel% expressed "onsent o; Ythe +orld "o$$nit%Y> it +old not have happenedJ& 5t thesen"ertainties do not di$inish its stiKed appeal& Other ;a"tors besides de$o"ra"%Xs poplarit% explain the

dangeros belie; that its propagation b% ar$ies $ight a"tall% be ;easible& lobalisationsggests thath$an a=airs are evolving to+ard a niversal pattern& I; gas stations> iPods> and "o$pter gee7s are the sa$e

+orld+ide> +h% not politi"al instittions? This vie+ unerrates t5e 2orl so$e

h$anitarians are still read% to spport a +orld order i$posed b% .S po+er& 5t one s5oul al2ays besusicious 25en military o2ers claim to be oin 2ea:er states fa+oursby occuyin t5em. Another ;a"tor $a% be the $ost i$portant the .S has been read% +ith thene"essar% "o$bination o; $egalo$ania and $essianis$> derived ;ro$ its revoltionar% origins& Toda%Xs .S isn"hallengeable in its te"hno($ilitar% spre$a"%> "onvin"ed o; the speriorit% o; its so"ial s%ste$> and> sin"e 1464>no longer re$inded ( as even the greatest "onHering e$pires al+a%s had been ( that its $aterial po+er has li$its&i7e President /ilson> toda%Xs ideologes see a $odel so"iet% alread% at +or7 in the .S a "o$bination o; la+>liberal ;reedo$s> "o$petitive private enterprise and reglar> "ontested ele"tions +ith niversal s=rage& All that

re$ains is to re$a7e the 2orl in t5e imae of t5is free society.This idea isanerous 25istlin in t5e ar:.Althogh great po+er a"tion $a% have $orall% or politi"all%desirable "onseHen"es> ientifyin 2it5 it is erilous because t5e loic anmet5os of state action are not t5ose of uni+ersal ri5ts.All established states pttheir o+n interests Krst& I; the% have the po+er> and the end is "onsidered s"ientl% vital> states sti;% the $eans

o; a"hieving it ( parti"larl% +hen the% thin7


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/ithot s"h "onsenss> there is no single sovereign people and there;ore no legiti$a"% ;or arith$eti"al $aorities&/hen this "onsenss is absent> de$o"ra"% has been sspended as is the "ase in Northern IrelandJ> the state has

split as in C:e"hoslova7iaJ> or so"iet% has des"ended into per$anent "ivil +ar as in Sri an7aJ& Sreainemocracy ara+ate et5nic con#ict an rouce t5e isinteration ofstates in multinational an multicommunal reions after bot5 1!1% an1!%!. T5e eBort to srea stanarise 2estern emocracy also suBers a

funamental araox. " ro2in art of 5uman life no2 occurs beyon t5ein#uence of +oters 3 in transnational ublic an ri+ate entities t5at 5a+eno electorates. "n electoral emocracy cannot function eBecti+elyoutsie olitical units suc5 as nation3states& The po+er;l states are there;ore tr%ing tospread a s%ste$ that even the% Knd inadeHate to $eet toda%Xs "hallenges& #rope proves the point& A bod% s"has the #ropean .nion "old develop into a po+er;l and e=e"tive str"tre pre"isel% be"ase it has no ele"torateother than a s$all n$ber o; $e$ber govern$ents& The #. +old be no+here +ithot its Yde$o"rati" deK"itY> andthere "an be no legiti$a"% ;or its parlia$ent> ;or there is no Y#ropean peopleY& .nsrprisingl%> proble$s arose assoon as the #. $oved be%ond negotiations bet+een govern$ents and be"a$e the sbe"t o; de$o"rati"

"a$paigning in the $e$ber states& T5e eBort to srea emocracy is also anerousin a more inirect 2ay it con+eys to t5ose 25o o not enoy t5is form ofo+ernment t5e illusion t5at it actually o+erns t5ose 25o o& 5t does it? /eno+ 7no+ so$ething abot ho+ t5e actual ecisions to o to 2ar in ;raK 2ere ta:enin at least t2o states of unKuestionable emocratic bona Aes the .S and the.M& Other than "reating "o$plex proble$s o; de"eit and "on"eal$ent> ele"toral de$o"ra"% and representativeasse$blies had little to do +ith that pro"ess& De"isions +ere ta7en a$ong s$all grops o; people in private> notver% di=erent ;ro$ the +a% the% +old have been ta7en in non(de$o"rati" "ontries&

"n 9o emocratic bac:slie333emocracies ro2 moreresilient in economic crises?ei an "esni: $)))!inxin and Ariel> senior asso"iate at the Carnegie#ndo+$ent ;or International Pea"e> and !r& Adesni7 is a nior ;ello+ there>YDe$o"ra"ies Ne+ or7 Ti$es> 32000>http+++&n%ti$es&"o$2000030opinion0iht(edpei&2&t&ht$lJ *anRecent trens suestin t5e erosion of emocracy in 7atin "merica 5a+ele some obser+ers to 2arn of a ossible aut5oritarian resurence in t5e

reion. T5ey fear t5at t5e economic crisis in some countries isunerminin emocratic reimes.@&ase on our stuy of !' eisoes ofeconomic crisis in $$ countries in 7atin "merica an "sia after Worl War;; suc5 fears are unnecessary. emocracies are far more resilient t5anaut5oritarian reimes in t5e face of economic a+ersity.It is not the de$o"rats btthe di"tators +ho shold ;ear ;or their srvival +hen an e"ono$i" "risis hits& A "ase in point is the Asian Knan"ial

"rash o; 144> +hi"h broght do+n the Sharto regi$e that had rled Indonesia ;or $ore than 30 %ears& ;nSout5 Vorea T5ailan an t5e ?5iliines 5o2e+er emocracies sur+i+et5e crisis intact.@!"h o; the "onventional +isdo$ abot the politi"al i$pa"t o; e"ono$i" "rises $a% be+rong& In ,> or 5alf of t5e cases+e stdied> t5e crisis rouce neit5er a c5ane ofo+ernment nor a c5ane of a reime s%ste$ o; govern$entJ& In 1 "ases> it led to a "hangeo; govern$ent bt not o; regi$e& /ith one ex"eption> all o; these "hanges too7 pla"e in de$o"rati" states as a

reslt o; ele"tions> no("onKden"e votes or resignations& S"h c5anes o not estabili,e t5eolitical system an selom lea to an outbrea: of +iolence.@Economiccrisis cause reime collases in 30> or about one3t5ir of t5e cases mostlyt5rou5 a raual rocess. ;mmeiate collase is rare E onl% six regi$e "ollapsesthree o; +hi"h too7 pla"e in #"adorJ +ere observed +ithin nine $onths o; the otbrea7 o; the "risis& A$ong the;allen +ere 1' di"tatorships> 10 de$o"ra"ies and Kve se$ide$o"ra"ies E regi$es that rel% on "oer"ion to $aintainpo+er despite having ;or$al de$o"rati" instittions&@The 10 "ases o; "ollapsed de$o"ra"ies sggest that politi"al

;a"tors> rather than prel% e"ono$i" ones> "ontribted to the brea7do+n& In ;a"t> t5e se+erity ofeconomic crisis Pmeasure in terms of in#ation an neati+e ro2t5Q boreno relations5i to t5e collase. ?olitical +ariables 5o2e+er suc5 as
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ieoloical olari,ation labor raicalism uerrilla insurencies an ananti3Communist military laye a more irect role in t5e emise ofemocracy in e+eloin countries.@The $ost stri7ing and heartening Knding is thatemocracies may 5a+e ro2n more resilient o+er time. Sin"e 1460> onl% onede$o"ra"% E Per E has ;allen in the $idst o; "rises& O; the 23 e"ono$i" "rises that str"7 de$o"ra"ies in atinA$eri"a and Asia a;ter 1460> 10 had no serios politi"al e=e"ts +hile onl% 12 led to "onstittional "hanges o;govern$ent& In e"ono$i" ter$s> $an% o; these "rises +ere $ore severe than those that "lai$ed de$o"rati"regi$es in the sa$e "ontries in the 14,0s and 140s&@Argentina is a "ase in point& Sin"e its transition in 1463> theArgentine de$o"ra"% has +eathered h%perination and deep re"ession E in sharp "ontrast to the repeated "ollapseo; de$o"ra"% +hen Argentina experien"ed less devastating "rises dring the Cold /ar&@The sor"e o; de$o"ra"iesXresilien"e is their instittional "apa"it% to en;or"e politi"al a""ontabilit%> via ele"tions or "onKden"e votes&

o+ernments fall but emocracy sur+i+es as a system of o+ernment.@

"n emocracy collase oesnt lea to extinction333aut5oritarian reimes cooerate to sol+e t5e same roblemsrmann et al, 13 [Dr& 2013> http+++&giga(ha$brg&dedldo+nload&php?d]"ontentpbli7ationenpd;+p224^erd$ann(ban7(ho=$ann(ri"hter&pd;Z ST-M#-In politi"s and politi"al s"ien"e ali7e> a2areness is ro2in about t5e increasininternational in#uence of aut5oritarian reimes& The pri$ar% ;o"s o; attention has been theneighbor ` hood poli"ies o; -ssias post ` Soviet regi$e as +ell as Chinas international politi"al and e"ono$i" a"tivities& The

"ontrovers% abot a Ire+erse 2a+eG of emocrati,ation t5e exan X sion ofnonemocratic rule!er7el 2010 Pddington 2006> 2004J an t5e earlier Ibac:las5aainst emocracy romotionGCarothers 200,> 2004J re#ects t5ese trens& !ore re"entl%>s"holarl% attention has trned a+a% ;ro$ the international di$ension o; de$o"rati:ation to address the international di$ension o;athoritarian regi$es& This ne+ interest dre+ athors ;ro$ t+o strands& First> s"holars ;or$erl% interested in pro"esses o;

de$o"rati:ation too7 noti"e o; the aut5oritarian rollbac: t5at re+erse many eBorts of e

X mocracy romotion5rnell and S"hl$berger 2010 5rnell 2011J&

Secon sc5olars re+i Xously intereste in t5e stability an urability of aut5oritarian reimesbecame increasinly a2are of t5e imortance of international factorsArt2012 201J& So$e o; the literatre $ain ` tains a de$o"rati:ing perspe"tive inso;ar as it as7s ho+ and +h% so$e

nonemocratic re X imes 2ere able to fen oB international iBusion of ore+en ressure for emocracyevits7% and /a% 2010 /e%land 2010J& *o+ever> the strand o; resear"h thatdoes not approa"h the isse ;ro$ the angle o; de$o"rati:ation still needs to develop a "o$prehensive "on"eptal approa"h& Theisse goes +ell be%ond the parti"lar antide$o"rati" Bleverage o; athoritarian po+ers> s"h as -ssias "onterinen"e on the

"olor revoltions in its neighborhood& "u X t5oritarian reimes collaborate in +arious 2ays EThe% ro+ieea"h other +ith ieational an material suort E The% rotect ea"h other ont5e international le+elW ;or exa$ple> throgh vetoes in the .N Se"rit% Con"il E The% 5elea"h other inmilitary` and se"rit% ` related isses E The% learn ;ro$ ea"h other in ho+ to deal +ith opposition and ho+ to bild a solidpolit ` i"al part% E The% ex"hange ideas on the design o; develop$ent strategies E And the% provide ea"h other +ith dire"tpersonal advi"e on ho+ to "ope +ith insrgent ;or"es and ho+ to "ontrol Internet sage& /hile it is obvios that

aut5oritarian reimes use multile forms of international cooera X tion torein;or"e their rle> the existing literatre pa%s s"ant attention to these pheno$ena&

"n "ut5oritarianism isnt ba333limitations are oo7ahi( 7a?a 12> "ol$nist at The #xpress Tribne httprahib(ra:a&blogspot&"o$201210nor$ative(theor%(athoritarian(theor%&ht$l> 10(24>12

Shah
http://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp229_erdmann-bank-hoffmann-richter.pdfhttp://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp229_erdmann-bank-hoffmann-richter.pdfhttp://rahib-raza.blogspot.com/2012/10/normative-theory-authoritarian-theory.htmlhttp://rahib-raza.blogspot.com/2012/10/normative-theory-authoritarian-theory.htmlhttp://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp229_erdmann-bank-hoffmann-richter.pdfhttp://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp229_erdmann-bank-hoffmann-richter.pdfhttp://rahib-raza.blogspot.com/2012/10/normative-theory-authoritarian-theory.htmlhttp://rahib-raza.blogspot.com/2012/10/normative-theory-authoritarian-theory.html


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Since t5e earliest times t5e control of leaers 25ic5 le to t5e oression

of t5e eole 5as been emonstrate.The concept of authoritarianism developed throughout history

wherein people in various societies lived under the authority of scrupulous people. Even English monarchs in the 15th and 16th

century, when the printing press was realized, compelled restrictive censorship on publishers through a series of limitations such as

licensing, taxation, and seditious libel. Actually,t5ese forms of limitations are not ba at all

because t5ese ser+e as ate:eeers for some irresonsible rintematerials.

Conspicuously, even up to now,lots of eole are still li+in uner t5e aut5oritati+e

form of o+ernment system 25erein t5e o+ernment 5as t5e absolute

control o+er t5e meia an t5at t5ey use meia for roaana uroses.

Sometimes its a funny thing to know that in this type of political system there are no marketing strategies being used, only but just

threat morose threat.


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emocracy "+ 3 Exts =1 3 Unsustainable

emocracy 2ill ine+itably collase333it is in5erently unstableMunt, JG [-obert> athor on histor% stdies> BIs De$o"ra% Stable? Co$pared to/hat? 144> http+++&stier&net+ritingde$stabstabilit%&ht$Z ST-M#-The emirical stuy of emocratic reimes in t5e last Afty years 5asfocuse on t5e Kuestion of 25at ma:es for stable emocracies&[1Z 9ariosh%potheses have been pt ;or+ard and tested abot the so"ial and politi"al "onditions nder +hi"h de$o"rati"

regi$es "o$e to be or to endre& A prespposition o; $ost o; this resear"h is that emocratic reimes

are articularly fraile & T5e suosition t5at emocracies are fraile

robably 5as a number of sources. T5e fri5tenin exerience of t5eescent of Euroean emocracies into fascism an communism is er5ast5e most imortant& 5t 2e can also An suort for t5is resuosition int5e e+ient fraility of emocratic reimes in t5e less e+eloe 2orl."n stanin be5in t5ese e+ents is t5e lon stanin traition in

olitical 5iloso5yLan esecially in re3moern olitical t5ou5tLofisarain emocracy an 2arnin t5at it is li:ely to lea to tyranny.

emocracy is funamentally #a2e333t5e a+erae +oteroesnt :no2 25ats bestTuc:er 1)[-eed> "ontribtor to NPost> B/hen De$o"ra"% ;ails> 2110>http+++&n%post&"o$pne+sopinionoped"ol$nists+hen^de$o"ra"%^;ails^*5o3rR,3h8;gp.#RZ ST-M#-o dont have to be a C(SPAN n7ie to see that our o+ernment is ust lain bro:en& o getthe ;eeling that $ore sbstantial +or7 gets a""o$plished at a high s"hools $odel .N& 5t +hat i; its not st

govern$ent thats bro7en? /hat i; emocracy itself oesnt 2or:? A;ter +at"hing Ba%+al7ing>

or> an episode o; Berse% Shore> its 5ar to arue t5at We t5e ?eole arebest eKuie to ma:e t5e imortant ecisions of state. "s WinstonC5urc5ill once sai IT5e best arument aainst emocracy is a A+e3minute con+ersation 2it5 t5e a+erae +oter.G!a%be t5e roblem 2it5o+ernment t5ese ays is simly t5at 2e "mericansand that in"ldes $an% o; thosein po+erJ ont :no2 enou5 to ma:e t5e best c5oice& To see st ho+ sensible +e as apeople are> lets loo7 at so$e ti$es +eve been given a "han"e to be heard
http://www.stier.net/writing/demstab/stability.htmhttp://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/when_democracy_fails_LHBo3rZ6u43hQfgpULEZ7Lhttp://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/when_democracy_fails_LHBo3rZ6u43hQfgpULEZ7Lhttp://www.stier.net/writing/demstab/stability.htmhttp://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/when_democracy_fails_LHBo3rZ6u43hQfgpULEZ7Lhttp://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/when_democracy_fails_LHBo3rZ6u43hQfgpULEZ7L


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emocracy "+ 3 Exts =$ 3 Unstable

emocracies are unstable333se+eral reasonsKapstein, 12 [#than> visiting ;ello+ at the Center ;or B/h%De$o"ra"ies Fail essons ;ro$ !ali? 32412> http+++&"gdev&orgblog+h%(de$o"ra"ies(;ail(lessons($aliZ ST-M#-T5e recent cous in t5e Mali+es an Mali aainst emocratically electeleaers an t5e continuin olitical strules in Tunisia Eyt an 7ibyafollo2in t5e "rab Srin are otent reminers t5at emocracy is afraile institution& In ;a"t> of t5e 1$) attemts at emocrati,ation t5at 5a+eoccurre aroun t5e 2orl since 1!6) nearly 5alf 5a+e been re+erse atsome oint& The reasons ;or de$o"rati" ;ailre> ho+ever> are srprising& In or boo7> The Fate o; ongDe$o"ra"ies> Nathan Converse and I ;ond that de$o"ra"ies do not ;ail ;or the reasons "o$$onl% spposed& The%do not generall% ;ail> ;or exa$ple> be"ase o; poor e"ono$i" per;or$an"e& In ;a"t> the de$o"ra"ies that areoverthro+n have> on average> higher gro+th rates than those that are sstained over long periods o; ti$e& So$ere"ent exa$ples o; ;ast gro+ing de$o"ra"ies that have reversed in"lde -ssia> 9ene:ela> and Thailand& Nor dode$o"ra"ies reverse +hile ndergoing the pro"ess o; e"ono$i" re;or$& To the "ontrar%> re;or$s li7e tradeliberali:ation and privati:ation tend to spport the de$o"rati" pro"ess> as the% bring ;orth entrepreners +hoprovide a bl+ar7 against an athoritarian ba"7lash& Finall%> de$o"ra"ies are no $ore li7el% to be sstained b%adopting parlia$entar% instead o; presidential instittions& Thogh parlia$entar% ;or$s o; govern$ent are o;tensaid to help prevent po+er grabs b% the exe"tive bran"h> pri$e $inisters have proved to be ver% adept at"o$$anding po+erEthin7 o; 9ladi$ir PtinEand parlia$ents are o;ten +ea7 and sharpl% divided> ths in"apable o;

exer"ising athorit%& /h%> then> do de$o"ra"ies ;ail? Or std% identiKed several "o$$on ;a"tors& 0irstyoun emocracies are often 2ea:ene by extreme le+els of incomeineKuality. Risin income ineKuality inicates a ysfunctional emocraticstate in 25ic5 economic o2er is concentrate in t5e 5ans of t5e fe2rat5er t5an one in 25ic5 economic oortunities are 2iely s5are aniBuse. Secon youn emocracies t5at are unable to constrain t5eexecuti+e branc5 of o2erE+hether presidential or parlia$entar%E+ill Knd it di"lt to sstain

parti"ipator% ;or$s o; govern$ent& The sal red ags here are "hangesEor atte$pts to "hangeEthe "onstittion>parti"larl% +ith respe"t to ter$ li$its and ele"toral "%"les& "mon t5e leaers 25o 5a+et5reatene t5eir emocracies in t5is 2ay are >uo C5a+e, in Fene,uelaan Euaro Correa in Ecuaor. T5ir emocratic states t5at areet5nically framente face se+ere c5allenes of institution builin t5eymay be unable to o+ercome. Suc5 societies are often c5aracteri,e byIinsierG3IoutsierG tensionsthat are not easil% resolved& As the BinsidersEthe ethni"all%do$inant gropE"entrali:e politi"al po+er> the Botsiders $a% Knd the% have no alternative bt to tr% and

overthro+ the regi$e& 0ourt5 ne2ly emocratic states t5at o not ro+ieaeKuate sulies of Iublic oosG li:e 5ealt5 care an eucation areunli:ely to succee.In "r"ial respe"ts> de$o"ra"% as a regi$e t%pe is stiKed b% its abilit% to deliverpbli" goods to a broad spe"tr$ o; "iti:ens> and not st to an elite& I; de$o"ra"ies are nable or n+illing to $eetthese de$ands> their ver% raison detre $a% be "alled into Hestion&
http://www.cgdev.org/blog/why-democracies-fail-lessons-malihttp://www.cgdev.org/blog/why-democracies-fail-lessons-malihttp://www.cgdev.org/blog/why-democracies-fail-lessons-malihttp://www.cgdev.org/blog/why-democracies-fail-lessons-mali


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emocracy "+ 3 Exts =' 3 ?romotin emocracy0ails

?romotin emocracy fails333stron resistance an carrie outoorlyWM%, *OWorl Mo+ement for emocracy Confrontin t5e C5allenesto emocracy in t5e $1stCentury ICurrent C5allenes toemocracyG 1/$))% http+++&+$d&orgabot"rrent("hallenges"rrent("hallenges(de$o"ra"% STRVERT5e rocess of learnin to ractice emocracy meets c5allenes of

+arious :ins . T5e Arst c5allene lies in t5e fact t5at emocrati,ation

ta:es lace in often still aut5oritarian en+ironments t5at resist c5ane> in"ontries +ith +ea7 states that provide ins"ient se"rit% to their "iti:ens> in "ontries +ith in"o$plete pro"esses

o; nation(bilding> and in "ontries +ith poorl% developed or s7e+ed e"ono$ies& Frther$ore> +hile there has beenprogress in the parti"ipation o; +o$en in the politi"al arena> the% are still a $inorit% in the po+er positions o; even

$ost de$o"rati" states& Transitions to emocracy o not mo+e for2ar acrossstrai5t lines an are boun to encounter bac:las5es& De$o"ra"% a"tivists> there;ore>and the international organi:ations that spport the$> $st prepare ;or the long hal and adopt "o$prehensive

approa"hes& T5e secon c5allene lies in t5e inaeKuate an inaroriateinternational aroac5es in suortin emocratic e+eloment& Theeli+ery of international suort is not al2ays comatible 2it5 t5eintrinsic +alues of emocracy itself& Does the pro"ess throgh +hi"h international spport isdelivered have as its lti$ate goal a de$o"rati" ot"o$e? Are the instr$ents sed and pro"edres ;ollo+ed

de$o"rati"? /hen the% are not> de$o"ra"% spport is li7el% to be"o$e proble$ati"& T5e remise ofIeconomic e+eloment Arst emocracy laterGstill holds ;or $"h o; internationalassistan"e& It results> ;or exa$ple> in t5e romotion of liberal mar:et reforms 25ilereinforcin systems of autocracy in t5e rocess& That "ontries be"o$e e"ono$i"all% as+ell as politi"all% Kt throgh de$o"ra"% W as arged b% the Nobel lareate Ar$at%a Sen ( reHires a "o$prehensive

rethin7ing o; ho+ international assistan"e is delivered& Confusin emocracy romotion 2it5reime c5ane an e+en 2it5 t5e use of military force to remo+e areime is counter3roucti+e an often inconsistent 2it5 t5e +alues ofemocracy& Suc5 an aroac5 5as laye into t5e 5ans of autocrats+ho areresisting ne"essar% de$o"rati" re;or$s b% pla%ing p senti$ents against per"eived ;oreign intrsion in violation o;the sovereignt% o; their "ontries& It also is o;ten a""o$panied b% Udoble standards sin"e onl% n;riendl% regi$es

are targeted +hile B;riendl% t%rants are treated $"h $ore lenientl%& Suc5 ractices Y real orercei+e Y in t5e conuct of international cooeration by establis5eemocracies are i+in emocracy an emocracy suort unfortunatelya ba name& Frther$ore> in "ontries $oving ot o; violent "oni"t> o;ten the em5asis lies on

stability an reconstruction Arst emocracy later & This approa"h freKuentlyentrenc5es t5e +ery olitical3economic interests 25ic5 are t5e causes ofcon#ict in t5e Arst lace& -ather than seHen"ing approa"hes> s""ess;l international "ooperationoght to be "o$prehensive b% balan"ing the three interlin7ed obe"tives o; de$o"ra"%> se"rit% and develop$ent&

?romotin emocracy fails333forcin reimes oesnt 2or:7onen, 13Oo+ lecturer on syc5oloy at >ar+ar Meical Sc5ool is t5eaut5or of IT5e Zuest for Self3eterminationG IEn t5e
http://www.wmd.org/about/current-challenges/current-challenges-democracyhttp://www.wmd.org/about/current-challenges/current-challenges-democracyhttp://www.wmd.org/about/current-challenges/current-challenges-democracyhttp://www.wmd.org/about/current-challenges/current-challenges-democracy


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Camain to Srea emocracyG 4/')/1'http+++&n%ti$es&"o$2013030opinionglobal#nd(the(Ca$paign(to(Spread(De$o"ra"%&ht$l?^r]1Q STRVERAFT#- its vi"tor% in the ideologi"al "on;rontation bet+een t+o "a$ps dring the Cold /ar> t5e UniteStates 5as been 2ain an ieoloical camain to srea emocracy

aroun t5e 2orl> an many of its citi,ens 5oe t5at t5e camain 2ille+entually be +ictorious. T5is is not li:ely to 5aen& An old proverb sa%s Bou

cannot 25istle aainst t5e 2inD t5e 2in is stroner & Hne can 25istle

t5e ieoloical camains tune of emocracy forcefully but it 2ill besilence by t5e t5unerous storm of t5e 5uman strule for self3etermination& T5e launc5in of t5e ieoloical camain is most li:elybase on t5e con+iction t5at t5e collase of t5e Marxist/CommunistEastern camdring the Cold /ar ro+e once an for all t5e unKuestionablesueriority an uni+ersal alicability of emocracy an its olitical an

economic institutions. T5is is not t5e case .The vi"tor% onl% proved that the

i$ple$entation o; the !arxist idea ;ailed in the Soviet e$pire> and the collase of economies t5ere

i not lea to entrenc5ment of emocracy but to t5e exercise of self3eterminationb% #stonians> *ngarians> Poles> .7rainians> a$ong others> in"lding Che"hens nderD:ho7ar Dda%ev& es> peoples o; the Soviet e$pire did pro"lai$ aspirations ;or de$o"ra"%& So did parti"ipants inethni" "oni"ts in the ;or$er goslavia in the i$$ediate a;ter$ath o; the Cold /ar> and so did parti"ipants in theArab Spring prisings so$e t+o de"ades later& 5t neither peoples o; the ;or$er Soviet e$pire> nor peoples o;goslavia> nor those in the Arab Spring prisings aspired to de$o"rati" rle& All these peoples aspired to +hat

/oodro+ /ilson advo"ated dring and a;ter /orld /ar I sel;(deter$ination& *e re$ar7ed> B 9o eole

must be force uner so+ereinty uner 25ic5 it oes not 2is5 to li+e &President /ilson also +rote in Arti"le 3 o; his Krst dra;t o; the Covenant o; the eage o; Nations BThe Contra"tingPo+ers nite in garanteeing &&& territorial adst$ents &&& as $a% in the ;tre be"o$e ne"essar% b% reason o;"hanges in the present so"ial "onditions and aspirations or present so"ial and politi"al relationships>
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/opinion/global/End-the-Campaign-to-Spread-Democracy.html?_r=1&http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/opinion/global/End-the-Campaign-to-Spread-Democracy.html?_r=1&


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***"rctic Con#ict


32/82


"rctic Con#ict "+antae 0rontline

0irst 3 9o c5ance of "rctic Con#ict3 Countries are maintainin

eace in t5e reion no2Ber'man 312[Pal Arthr 5er7$an a biologi"al o"eanographer at the .niversit% o; Cali;ornia>Santa 5arbara> is the athor o; B#nviron$ental Se"rit% in the Ar"ti" O"ean Pro$oting Co(operationand Preventing Coni"t& !ar"h 12> 2013 http+++&n%ti$es&"o$20130313opinionpreventing(an(ar"ti"("old(+ar&ht$l?^r]0a""essed on Agst 1> 2013Z AM# ##

.ST a Harter("entr% ago> and ;or $illenni$s be;ore that>t5e "rctic Hcean 2as co+ere year3roun by ice creatin an imrenable 2ilerness t5at 5umans rarelyneotiate. Toay as t5e eBects of lobal 2armin are amliAe in t5e5i5 nort5 most of t5e ocean is oen 2ater urin t5e summer anco+ere by ice only in t5e 2inter.This nexpe"ted trans;or$ation has radi"all% altered the sta7es ;or theAr"ti"> espe"iall% ;or the eight nations and indigenos peoples that srrond it& 5t +hile there has been "ooperation on extra"tingthe regions oil> gas and $ineral deposits> and exploiting its Ksheries> there has been little e=ort to develop legal $e"hanis$s to

prevent or addi"ate "oni"t& The potential ;or s"h "oni"t is high> even thogh tensions are no+ lo+& Se+eralcountries alon 2it5 cororations li:e ExxonMobil an Royal utc5 S5ellare rearin to exloit t5e reions enormous oil an natural asreser+es. 9e2 s5iin routes 2ill comete 2it5 t5e ?anama an Sue,Canals. Fast As5eries are bein oene to commercial 5ar+estin 2it5outreulation. Coastal areas t5at are 5ome to inienous communities areeroin into t5e sea.China and the #ropean .nion are a$ong non(Ar"ti" govern$ents rshing to assert theirinterests in the region& So$e states have in"reased $ilitar% personnel and eHip$ent there.T5e mostfunamental c5allene for t5e "rctic states is to romote cooeration anre+ent con#ict.5oth are essential> bt a ;or$ ;or a"hieving those goals does not %et exist& In 144,> ei5tcountries L t5e Unite States Russia Canaa 9or2ay 0inlan S2een;celan an enmar: P25ic5 manaes t5e forein aBairs an efense ofreenlanQ L an rous reresentin inienous eoles establis5e t5e"rctic Council to c5art t5e reions future. So far t5is 5i53le+el forum 5asientiAe sustainable e+eloment an en+ironmental rotection asIcommon "rctic issues&&ut anot5er crucial concern Lmaintainin t5e eace L 2ass5el+e in t5e tal:s t5at le to t5e councils creation.The ;ear then> as no+> +as thatpea"e i$plied de$ilitari:ation& It doesnt& 5t i; these nations are still too ti$id to dis"ss pea"e in the region +hen tensions are lo+>ho+ +ill the% possibl% "ooperate to ease "oni"ts i; the% arise? Sin"e 200,> ea"h o; the Ar"ti" nations has adopted its o+n se"rit%poli"% to sa;egard its sovereign rights& /hat the% $st do no+ is "o$pare their separate se"rit% poli"ies> identi;% the +a%s in+hi"h those poli"ies rein;or"e or "oni"t +ith one another> and then balan"e national interests +ith "o$$on interests& *o+> ;orinstan"e> +ill ea"h nation position its $ilitar% and poli"e its territor%? *o+ +ill the Ar"ti" states deal +ith China and other nationsthat have no ;or$al risdi"tional "lai$s bt have strong interests in exploiting Ar"ti" resor"es? *o+ +ill Ar"ti" and non(Ar"ti"states +or7 together to $anage those resor"es be%ond national risdi"tions> on the high seas and in the deep sea? /ithot

rati;%ing the Convention on the a+ o; the Sea> a 1462 treat% governing se o; the +orlds o"eans>5o2 can t5eUnite States cooerate 2it5 ot5er nations to resol+e territorial isutesin t5e ocean[ 9"THs to military commaner "m. \ames . Sta+riis oft5e Unite States 9a+y 2arne in $)1) of an Iicy sloe to2ar a ,one of

cometition or 2orse a ,one of con#ict i; the +orlds leaders ;ailed to ensre Ar"ti" pea"e&/hether it is throgh the Ar"ti" Con"il or another entit%> there needs to be a ;or$ ;or dis"ssing pea"e and stabilit%> not st

environ$ental and e"ono$i" isses& /e need Brles o; the road to ta7e s sa;el% into the Ar"ti"s ;tre& ?resientFlaimir F. ?utin of Russia 25ose economy is

advantage frontline toolbox - northwestern 2013 sophomores

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