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Writing Sample

PV Global Market Analysis

During  the  last  decade,  the  photovoltaic  (PV)  industry  experienced  wild  growth,  as  global  demand  grew  from  megawatts  (MW)  to  gigawatts  (GW),  with  a  Compound  Annual  Growth  Rate  (CAGR)  of  greater  than  50%  between  2000  and  2010.  The  industry  saw  major  technological  advancements,  increases  in  system  size,  great  price  fluctuations,  as  well  as  both  shortages  and  over  supply.    

During  this  period,  Europe  led  global  demand.  In  2010,  it  accounted  for  81%  of  global  demand  trailed  by  North  America  and  Japan  which  each  accounted  for  only  7%  of  demand.  European  demand  was  primarily  fueled  by  government  incentive  programs  such  as  Feed  In  Tariff  (FiTs  )  programs  in  Germany.  Thus,  in  2011,  as  FiT  incentives  decrease  or  expire  in  Germany,  Italy,  France,  and  other  European  countries,  analysts  believe  that  European  demand  will  also  decline.  They  expect  this  trend  to  persist  throughout  the  rest  of  this  decade  .  Several  new  markets  are  expected  to  open  up  in  smaller  countries  such  as  Israel,  Morocco,  and  Thailand.    

Most  analysts  see  the  US  market,  which  grew  100%  from  2009  to  2010,  as  the  primary  source  of  growth  in  the  PV  market  for  the  next  ten  years.  The  US  market  is  expected  to  grow  to  approximately  1.7  GW  of  annual  consumption  in  2011  and  as  high  as  3.0  GW  by  2014.  However,  there  is  still  some  concern  about  the  shifting  political  climate  in  the  US  after  the  2010  November  elections.  Overall,  forecasters  do  not  expect  any  additional  US  states  to  issue  government  incentives  or  that  any  of  the  current  government  incentives  will  be  eliminated.  Thus,  they  believe  that  solar  demand  across  the  US  will  follow  its  existing  pattern.  California  leads  demand  for  solar  projects  and  other  states  with  favorable  government  policies  or  solar  resources,  such  as  New  Jersey  and  Arizona,  follow  close  behind.  In  addition,  demand  should  increase  in  the  entire  northeastern  region  of  the  US  as  rising  electricity  costs  point  to  solar  as  a  strong,  grid-­‐tied,  alternative.  Finally  most  analysts  believe  that  “grid  price  parity,”  or  the  point  when  PV  becomes  cost  competitive  without  government  incentives,  will  be  reached  as  early  as  2016,  as  the  average  cost-­‐per-­‐watt  for  solar  energy  continues  to  decline.      

The following is an introductory market analysis

I wrote as part of a Go-to-Market Plan

for a large Chinese PV (solar panel) company.