Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-113-Caliphate By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence.

In The "War of the Cross, we seek a Strategy, our Enemy has one."an “Islamic emirate”

Previous 19-109-Caliphate “There are bad people out there who are trying to do us harm.” In the president’s view, the reality of those threats has compelled the US to have “the strongest military in the world.” Within this context, Obama said that “disorder” stemming from “failed states” and “asymmetric threats from terrorist organizations” were the biggest challenges facing the international community today.

General Qassem Suleimani was quoted by Fars news agency as saying in a ceremony on February 11, "Considering the heavy defeats suffered by [IS militants] and other terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, we are certain these groups are nearing the end of their lives." "When Islamic State emerged in Iraq, no country offered assistance to destroy it," General Mohammad Ali Jafari said on February 14. "But Iran rushed to help the Iraqi nation to annihilate Islamic State

The Islamic State carried out a coordinated suicide bomber attack against the air base in western Iraq housing 320 US Marines. The Pentagon confirmed the extremist group has taken control of al-Baghdadi, which is just eight kilometers away from the base.

• 14 Feb The Friday attack 1 was conducted by approximately 25 Islamic State fighters, the Pentagon told Reuters, and several suicide bombers were involved. Some of them were reportedly able to detonate their vests, though the exact number is unclear. Some of the militants were able to sneak into the base wearing Iraqi uniforms, and they were killed by Iraqi troops when fighting broke out. Militants attacked al-Baghdadi from two directions and then advanced into the town on Thursday, according to intelligence sources and Iraqi army officials, Reuters reported. The death toll from the fighting has not been revealed. Officials also said that a group of ISIS militants tried to break into the heavily guarded Ain al-Asad air base on Thursday but were repelled by the Iraqi army, which was backed by coalition fighter planes. (Cees I’m I correct Thursday Probing and Friday Attack?)

“If you close your eyes and pretend that anti-Semitism and Islamist terrorism doesn’t exist it just leads to more tragedies. If you ignore the problem it will come back and hit you in the face and President Obama is ignoring reality,” “We’re in a very grave situation when the leader of the US, which is meant to be the leader of the democratic world, ignores reality and does not see with open eyes Islamic terror as it really is and how it appears in many places around the world.” “Maybe President Obama thinks he can come to agreements with Islamic terrorism and I’m very concerned that this is what is leading him to a seek a compromise agreement with Iran and its desire to develop atomic weapons,” -- Deputy Religious Services Minister Eli Ben-Dahan 2.

• Egypt’s Al-Azhar issued a statement Dec. 11, 2014, refusing to declare the Islamic State (IS) apostates. “No believer can be declared an apostate, regardless of his sins,” it read.

• The sheikh of Al-Azhar, Ahmed al-Tayeb, repeated his rejection of declaring IS apostates on Jan. 1, during a meeting with editors-in-chief of Egyptian newspapers.

1 http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/02/islamic_state_takes_1.php2 http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Obama-ignoring-reality-of-Islamic-terrorism-Deputy-minister-says-of-comments-on-Paris-attack-390807

• Al-Azhar’s leaders — the grand mufti and the Council of Senior Scholars — have actually never declared any person or group an apostate throughout Al-Azhar’s history, yet they have not taken any measures against Al-Azhar figures who have issued fatwas to that effect.

• One press report noted a degree of similarity between IS thought and Al-Azhar University's curriculum, which “allows for killing a Muslim who does not pray, one who leaves Islam, prisoners and infidels within Islam [those who do not have a clearly specified creed or sect].

The “death triangle” to which Machuouq referred, said Middle East economist Sami Nader, “suggests that Lebanon not only represents a strategic depth for Hezbollah and (Syrian President Bashar) al-Assad’s regime, but also that ISIS is taking refuge within its borders to escape the international alliance’s airstrikes against it on the eastern front.”

• The “death triangle” to which Machuouq referred, said Middle East economist Sami Nader, “suggests that Lebanon not only represents a strategic depth for Hezbollah and (Syrian President Bashar) al-Assad’s regime, but also that ISIS is taking refuge within its borders to escape the international alliance’s airstrikes against it on the eastern front.”

While attention in the Middle East has focused mainly on the Islamic State or on Israel’s relationship with the United States, Russia has been busy trying to advance its own position in the region, chiefly at the US’s expense. Over the course of January and early February 2015, high-level Russian policymakers were particularly busy meeting with Middle Eastern governments either in Moscow or in local capitals; additionally, Russian officials tried to engage the region’s major players in public speeches. Thus, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin both gave public statements accusing Washington of supporting terrorism in the Middle East, even though it is Moscow that provides arms to Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, the government of Iran and, through them, Hamas and Hezbollah (Ministry of Foreign affairs of the Russian Federation, January 28).

Similarly, discussions about arms sales figured conspicuously in the diplomacy preceding President Vladimir Putin’s February 9–10 visit to Egypt. One motive for this tightening of bilateral relations is certainly the common interest shared by Cairo and Moscow in thwarting the Islamic State, the Muslim Brotherhood and other, similarly inclined movements. However, Russia clearly also wants to weaken US influence in Egypt and recover the level of sway over this Middle Eastern country that Moscow enjoyed during the Cold War (see EDM, May 15, 2014). Indeed, Russia currently has $3.5 billion worth of arms contracts with Egypt, including sales of fighter jets, helicopters and air defense systems (Interfax, February 9)—which some observers interpret to mean the relatively advanced S-300 system (Kommersant, January 27).

February 14, 2015 A Revolutionary Guard commander says Iran has helped defeat the Islamic State group in Iraq. "When Islamic State emerged in Iraq, no country offered assistance to destroy it," General Mohammad Ali Jafari said on February 14. "But Iran rushed to help the Iraqi nation to annihilate Islamic State."Jafari said Iran has become a "torment" for the extremist group, adding that U.S. President Barack Obama and other world leaders had been "stunned" by what he described as the militants' defeat in Iraq.The statement appeared to contradict Tehran's claims that it has no military presence in Iraq, although sectarian militias with ties to Iran are widely believed to be combating militants there. Earlier this month, an Iranian general said he was prepared to begin training Iraqi military

officers. Iran and Iraq reached a security agreement in December that will reportedly increase military cooperation.

February 12, 2015 The head of Iran's powerful Quds Force has been quoted as saying the Islamic State (IS) group is nearing its demise. General Qassem Suleimani was quoted by Fars news agency as saying in a ceremony on February 11, "Considering the heavy defeats suffered by [IS militants] and other terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, we are certain these groups are nearing the end of their lives." Suleimani, who has reportedly been near the front line against the IS group, has frequently been pictured on social media in Iraq with pro-government forces in battle areas. Iran supports the Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad, and is a key ally of the regime in Damascus. Iran, however, is not part of U.S.-led air campaign that strikes IS targets in Iraq and Syria. The Quds Force -- the foreign wing of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards -- conducts sensitive security functions abroad, including intelligence, special operations, and political action deemed necessary to protect the Islamic republic.

Is the Past Prologue for the Islamic State?Kevin Woods and Jessica Huckabey February 13, 2015 · in (W)ARCHIVES3 The Islamic State’s (IS) capture of large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria has reignited interest in what many had hoped was a closed chapter of U.S. military history in Iraq: the fight against Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). While AQI was defeated, it was not destroyed. In fact, as a timeline offered by the Brookings Institution suggests, the Islamic State’s emergence appears to be just another step in AQI’s regional evolution. A challenge for the American objective of degrading and ultimately defeating IS is developing a clear understanding of how AQI failed. In addition, because IS’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, isn’t likely to publish a tell-all memoir any time soon, being able to see what the organization’s predecessors were learning in Iraq during AQI’s supposed demise would also help us understand IS’s growth. Finally, it would also be useful to examine what the Islamic State learned from AQI’s “defeat,” and how it is applying those lessons. Notwithstanding its remarkable innovations in funding and information operations, the Islamic State has a lot in common with its AQI predecessors. It faces the same, if not more challenging, tasks of population control, internal and external power struggles, and security—especially from the rapid influx of unvetted foreign fighters. Unsuccessful execution of these tasks doomed past Salafist jihadist groups. Those familiar with Abu Musab al-Suri’s writings assessing failed jihads, especially in Syria, will recognize the jihadist movements’ miserable track record in moving past the recruit-fight-martyr stages of state-building. Students of these movements know a great deal about these problems thanks to the jihadists’ reliance on the Internet for everything from daily communication to recruiting. But there is another source of insights. Information about the tensions and challenges of al-Qaeda and its affiliates is also available in the form of high-level jihadist records captured during military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan during the past decade. These records provide a rare window into the groups’ internal organizational dynamics and decision-making processes. They also enable the comparison of the public narratives about jihadist groups with their own self-perceptions in private discussions. Such records are available through the United States Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center. Another collection of them is also available at the less well-known Conflict Records Research Center (CRRC) in Washington, DC. The CRRC has a digital collection that includes almost 6,000 pages of captured records from al-Qaeda’s early days in Afghanistan (pre-2003) and a 3 http://warontherocks.com/2015/02/warchives-is-the-past-prologue-for-the-islamic-state/

growing collection of AQI records. In fact, the CRRC’s government sponsor, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, has charged the Center with focusing on growing its holdings of records that cover al-Qaeda–affiliated groups in Iraq. Even a cursory examination of the documentary evidence available at these two venues underscores the idea that the past may be prologue for the Islamic State. One well-known example of this is a 2005 letter from Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s then-second-in-command, to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, AQI’s founder. The captured letter reveals serious disagreement within the movement over the role of violence. In this document, Zawahiri warns that, apart from some “zealous young men,” Muslims will “never find palatable…the scenes of slaughtering the hostages.” If the Zawahiri letter indicated disapproval at the strategic level, correspondence at the operational level showed equal displeasure among the ranks of Islamist fighters. Another captured record, dated to early 2007, expressed the grievance of one allied jihadist group’s leader (likely the leader of Ansar al-Islam) with AQI’s relations with other militant groups fighting coalition forces in Iraq. Jihadist heavy-handedness was particularly noteworthy during the U.S. surge, when alienating AQI’s local allies could least be afforded. This appears to be a lesson lost on IS.

The 2007 letter’s author discussed disunity among the various groups and their causes; matters on which AQI—by then also known as the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI)—has generally preferred to remain silent. He wrote, “You have been previously warned many times about the behavior of some of your affiliated members who greatly doubted our brothers and issued statements that are misleading, heretic[al], and doubting even the legitimacy of the Jihad action of those who dissent from you…” The concerned jihadist commander’s specific complaint centered on the killing of one of his fighters after his group failed to answer letters quickly enough to satisfy AQI. He warned the AQI commander, “Brothers…do not think that you are the only ones who are right; such bad thinking instills discord among Muslims, cuts all brotherly ties, tears the bonds of love, and plants animosity, hatred, and enmity.” Events in Iraq and Syria remind us that extremism and authoritarianism remain a potent presence in Iraq and elsewhere. Captured AQI records offer the opportunity to understand the origins of the Islamic State as an adversary and to identify its vulnerabilities. The CRRC archive provides terrorism researchers a unique insight into those aspects of the region’s recent past that will shape its future.

13 Feb, 4Egypt’s Al-Azhar issued a statement Dec. 11, 2014, refusing to declare the Islamic State (IS) apostates. “No believer can be declared an apostate, regardless of his sins,” it read. Al-Azhar's statement came as a Nigerian mufti seemingly declared IS apostates at a Dec. 4, 2014, Al-Azhar conference. Al-Azhar stated that various media outlets had misrepresented the mufti's speech. The sheikh of Al-Azhar, Ahmed al-Tayeb, repeated his rejection of declaring IS apostates on Jan. 1, during a meeting with editors-in-chief of Egyptian newspapers. This sparked criticism from a number of religious, political and media parties, especially since Al-Azhar could have renounced the Nigerian mufti’s statement on IS without addressing the issue of whether or not Al-Azhar considers the group apostates.

In press statements, Al-Azhar representative Abbas Shoman said that the institution had not declared any person or group an apostate throughout its history. Yet, this claim was refuted by the daughter of late Egyptian author Farag Foda, Samar Farag Foda, who called into an Egyptian satellite TV program, saying, “My father’s assassination came as a result of fatwas issued by the majority of Al-Azhar’s sheikhs declaring him an apostate, because he had called for the separation of religion from politics.” Al-Azhar’s leaders — the grand mufti and the

4 http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/02/azhar-egypt-radicals-islamic-state-apostates.html

Council of Senior Scholars — have actually never declared any person or group an apostate throughout Al-Azhar’s history, yet they have not taken any measures against Al-Azhar figures who have issued fatwas to that effect.

Prominent fatwas include those by Al-Azhar’s Scholar Front, headed by Sheikh Abdul Ghaffar Aziz, who declared Foda an apostate on June 1, 1992. The Scholar Front comprises sheikhs who are considered radicals and supporters of ousted President Mohammed Morsi. Aziz was the dean of two of Al-Azhar’s colleges and among those who drafted the curriculum for Al-Azhar University. Sheikh Abd Rabbo Muftah, an inspector in the Department of Preaching at Al-Azhar, issued another notable fatwa declaring Egyptian writer Taha Hussein an apostate in 1926. Furthermore, a committee of 20 Al-Azhar scholars declared scholar Nasr Hamid Abu Zayd an apostate and demanded that he repent for the ideas that appeared in his studies. In 1995, the Egyptian judiciary charged Abu Zayd with apostasy and forcibly divorced him from his wife, forcing the couple to emigrate. Tharwat al-Kharbawy, a Muslim Brotherhood defector, attributed Al-Azhar’s refusal to declare IS apostates to its “faith in IS’ actions,” during an interview with Ibrahim Issa on satellite TV.

One press report noted a degree of similarity between IS thought and Al-Azhar University's curriculum, which “allows for killing a Muslim who does not pray, one who leaves Islam, prisoners and infidels within Islam [those who do not have a clearly specified creed or sect]. [It also allows] gouging their eyes and chopping off their hands and feet, as well as banning the construction of churches and discriminating between Muslims and Ahl al-Kitab [Christians and Jews], and insulting them at times.”

Ahmad Ban, a researcher of Islamic Affairs, told Al-Monitor that IS' and Al-Azhar's philosophies overlap, even if their practices on the ground differ. According to him, the overlaps could stem from President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s call for a religious revolution against certain texts that are considered sacred. Although these texts are not considered core texts, they represent a religious heritage encompassing hundreds of years. According to the Salafist Call, Al-Azhar and some terrorist groups like IS, these ideas cannot be subject to criticism, despite the fact that they are currently “causing concern to the whole world,” as Sisi said Jan. 1.

The Salafist Call issued a statement Dec. 11, 2014, supporting Al-Azhar’s refusal to declare IS apostates. They attacked some of Al-Azhar's critics, saying they were seeking to destroy its important role in protecting Egypt. Ban said, “Some of Al-Azhar’s approaches, including its refusal to deem IS apostates, could be due to the presence of a Salafist lobby within Al-Azhar.” This notion was shared by Saadaddine al-Hilali, a professor of comparative jurisprudence at Al-Azhar University. The Salafist Call issued its statement in support of Al-Azhar despite a video leak on Dec. 24, 2012, depicting disputes between the Salafists and Al-Azhar. The video was shot during a closed meeting between vice chairman of the board for the Salafist Call, Yasser al-Borhamy, and a number of Salafist sheikhs. In the video, Borhamy said, “Through their participation in the Constituent Assembly to draft the 2012 Egyptian Constitution, the Salafist currents tried to insert articles that would allow for ousting Al-Azhar’s Grand Mufti Ahmed al-Tayyeb at the earliest opportunity.” Hilali told Al-Monitor, “Al-Azhar is an independent [institution] under the constitution, and it has the right to issue any fatwas and statements it wants. However, it would have been better for it to absolutely reject declaring anyone an apostate, rather than reject this for IS alone. By doing the latter, it has given itself the right to declare other persons or groups apostates if it wants, even though no one has this right.

“I’m worried about Al-Azhar retaining the ‘weapon’ of deeming persons or groups apostates, which makes it akin to churches in medieval times that monopolized religious discourse and made themselves the guardians of man’s relationship with God. The prevalence of local and international propaganda depicting Al-Azhar as the sole entity that speaks for moderate Islam could lead to this being the case. Some of this propaganda came from the US, when Secretary of State John Kerry announced that the US sought to activate Al-Azhar’s role in fighting extremism, despite the fact that it includes a number of extremist Brotherhood members and Salafists. Thus, I want to stress that Al-Azhar’s fatwas do not reflect true religion. Rather, they are the ideas of its grand mufti or Council of Senior Scholars, and [these fatwas] are binding only to those who accept them.” Al-Azhar, which does not comment on the apostate fatwas issued by some of its scholars, confirmed its rejection of deeming IS apostates. Perhaps Al-Azhar leaders fear delving into the issue of fatwas expressing Al-Azhar’s rejection or faith in some IS ideas, or due to the presence of a Salafist lobby within Al-Azhar that was behind this statement. The controversy surrounding Al-Azhar’s statement on IS may not dissipate until a review is carried out of Al-Azhar’s structure and curriculum. Concerning the latter, in September 2014, the US Embassy in Egypt's charge d’affaires announced that he sought to increase US scholarships for some Al-Azhar students seeking to obtain master's degrees and doctorates, even though Al-Azhar’s curriculum currently includes “calls to violence.”

12 Feb, Deputy Religious Services Minister Eli Ben-Dahan (Bayit Yehudi) spoke out strongly on Thursday against President Barack Obama for his comments made earlier this week that the terror attack on the Kosher supermarket in Paris was chosen randomly, accusing him of ignoring the reality of Islamist terrorism. During an interview on Tuesday, Obama said “It is entirely legitimate for the American people to be deeply concerned when you have a bunch of violent, vicious zealots who behead people or randomly shot a bunch of folks in a Deli in Paris,” comments which caused a storm for failing to acknowledge that the target was chosen in order to attack Jews shopping at the kosher supermarket. “This place was chose specifically, there is no doubt that there was a particular intention to harm these people because they were Jewish,” said Ben-Dahan. “If you close your eyes and pretend that anti-Semitism and Islamist terrorism doesn’t exist it just leads to more tragedies. If you ignore the problem it will come back and hit you in the face and President Obama is ignoring reality,” the deputy-minister said. “We’re in a very grave situation when the leader of the US, which is meant to be the leader of the democratic world, ignores reality and does not see with open eyes Islamic terror as it really is and how it appears in many places around the world.” Ben-Dahan went on to criticize Obama’s general Middle East policy, saying he had made several mistakes including his Cairo speech in 2009, allowing the regime of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to fall, and for failing to address the Syrian Civil War in which the deputy-minister noted “more than 200,000 civilians have been killed.” “Maybe President Obama thinks he can come to agreements with Islamic terrorism and I’m very concerned that this is what is leading him to a seek a compromise agreement with Iran and its desire to develop atomic weapons,” Ben-Dahan said. “This is why I think Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is right in going to the US Congress to speak about this issue, so that the whole world will hear and listen to him about the danger of Islamic terrorism and the threat to the entire Middle East that Iran will pose if it acquires nuclear weapons,” he added.

New Al Nusrah Front video features interview with leader, military gains in SyriaBy THOMAS JOSCELYN LWJ February 13, 2015 At the beginning of a newly-released video, Abu Muhammad al Julani, the emir of the Al Nusrah Front, is heard speaking to a fighter who is about to carry out a suicide operation.

Julani is rarely heard in his organization's propaganda and never seen. The latest video continues this trend with a silhouette standing in for Julani. A still image of the fighter who is about to die, a "commando" known as Abu al Zubayr al Hamawi, is also shown. "These moments are historic for the Islamic umma. Do not let them pass by, brother," Julani reassures the fighter from an "operations room." Julani says Hamawi's blood will not be spilled in vain, as it is the "price" to be paid for raising the jihadists' black banner over Syria and implementing sharia law in the country. Hamawi's replies come across as confident. And the exchange is an effective piece of propaganda, as it shows an Al Nusrah "martyr" accepting his fate while also endorsing Julani's leadership. Hamawi gives Julani his "final will," telling the Al Nusrah Front leader that "the land of the Levant is a trust in your keeping, sheikh." Hamawi repeats the same phrase seconds later, adding that he wants Julani to strike all of Allah's enemies, including the Alawites (Shia who support Bashar al Assad) and the Kharijites, a derogatory term used to denounce "extremists." In this context, Hamawi is almost certainly using the word to describe the Islamic State's leaders and members, who have openly warred with the other jihadist factions in Syria since 2013. The back and forth between Julani and Hamawi lasts only a minute and a half. But it is a key introduction for the rest of the video, which is 48 minutes long in total. The Al Nusrah Front production, entitled "The Path to Survival in the Face of Conspiracies," is part of Al Nusrah's attempt to regain some of the steam the organization has lost in the propaganda war with its larger, more infamous foe, the Islamic State. Even some of Al Nusrah's staunchest supporters have wondered out loud on Twitter about Julani's media arm, questioning its reaction time and production capabilities. Indeed, the latest production was first advertised online on Feb. 5, but was not released until Feb. 11. It was not posted directly on Al Nusrah's most prolific Twitter feeds, which belong to its so-called "correspondents network." Instead, it was first tweeted on a more obscure Al Nusrah Front-linked account (with only 1,540 followers, as of this writing) and then retweeted by the more popular correspondents' page. While Al Nusrah's media arm, Al Manarah al Bayda for Islamic Media, does not have many popular jihadist hits of late, Julani's fighters have had better fortune on the actual battlefield. And the latest video trumpets these successes with digital maps showing their advances in both northern and southern Syria. The maps show Al Nusrah and its allies pushing Assad's forces and others out of areas in Idlib in the north and Daraa in the south. Many of the scenes center around this fighting, as battlefield images dominate the presentation. But there are other noteworthy scenes as well. (A collection of images from the video can be seen at the bottom of this article.) The Al Nusrah Front again criticizes the United Nations Security Council's decision to designate it as a terrorist organization. One clip points to Security Council Resolution 2170, which called on Al Nusrah "and all other entities associated with" al Qaeda to "cease all violence and terrorist acts, and immediately disarm and disband." The same sentence in the

resolution contains a reference to the Islamic State as well, but that part was removed from the excerpt shown in the video. After introducing the UN's anti-Al Nusrah Front actions, the video immediately cuts to a clip of Abu Firas al Suri, an al Qaeda veteran who has served as Al Nusrah's spokesman. Abu Firas assumed a more significant media profile for the organization last year. He was called upon to denounce the UN's resolution targeting Al Nusrah and

other actors in Syria. After a leaked audio recording of Julani surfaced online in July 2014, Abu Firas attempted to quell the ensuing controversy. Julani gave a fiery speech in the

recording, promising that Al Nusrah would build an Islamic state inside Syria. Julani's words were interpreted as meaning that he would no longer seek to work closely with other rebel groups and that Al Nusrah was going to unilaterally establish an emirate (state). Abu Firas promised this wasn't true in a speech released weeks later. He said that Al Nusrah would only declare an Islamic emirate in Syria after it had received its fellow jihadists' blessings. Abu Firas has been relatively quiet for the past several months. It is not clear why he has taken on a less active public role, but his inclusion in Al Nusrah's latest propaganda shows that the group still holds him in high regard. The video closes with a short clip of Ayman al Zawahiri. The snippet is from a previous recording released by As Sahab, al Qaeda's propaganda arm. Zawahiri calls on jihadists to unite under the principle of Tawhid, or the oneness of Allah. This has been widely interpreted as a call for the jihadists in Syria to come together in opposition to their common enemies, whether it be Bashar al Assad's regime or the Islamic State. Leading up to the release of the video, jihadists speculated that something bigger was afoot. Wild rumors were circulated. Some claimed that Julani was about to break his oath of allegiance (bayat) to Zawahiri and fold Al Nusrah into a new coalition of rebel groups. One allegation held that Al Nusrah and other anti-Assad jihadists were about to declare the establishment of an Islamic emirate in Syria. Others claimed that Julani was going to submit to the Islamic State, a drastic move that is highly unlikely and would be totally out of character for Julani. Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the head of the Islamic State, was once Julani's superior, but Julani forged his own working relationship with senior al Qaeda leadership. The personal animosity that resulted between Baghdadi and Julani is now somewhat legendary in jihadist circles. While Al Nusrah may or may not be planning a significant announcement, the various rumors were at odds with one another and lacked any credible sourcing. The speculation even drew some denials from well-connected jihadists such as Sheikh Abdullah Muhammad al Muhaysini, one of Al Nusrah's closest allies in Syria. In one tweet, Muhaysini said that he had spoken to Al Nusrah's leadership and that all of the rumors being passed around were untrue. There is no evidence in "The Path to Survival in the Face of Conspiracies" that Al Nusrah is leaving al Qaeda's ranks. If anything, the organization's reliance on footage of Zawahiri to close out the production demonstrates its ongoing role in al Qaeda's international network. Moreover, al Qaeda has seeded veteran leaders in Al Nusrah's most senior positions, meaning that Zawahiri loyalists continue to direct the group. Images from the Al Nusrah Front's "The Path to Survival in the Face of Conspiracies"

The video closes with a short clip of Ayman al Zawahiri calling for unity:

The next several screen shots are taken from scenes purporting to show Al Nusrah's

military advances in Syria:

Some of the clips show Al Nusrah Front training camps: One scene shows a facility where Russians had been allegedly stationed before it was overrun. The footage shows maps on the walls of the facility and a torn Russian flag that was sitting on a desk.

13 Feb, The Islamic State carried out a coordinated suicide bomber attack against the air base in western Iraq housing 320 US Marines. The Pentagon confirmed the extremist group has taken control of al-Baghdadi, which is just eight kilometers away from the base. 14 Feb The Friday attack was conducted by approximately 25 Islamic State fighters, the Pentagon told Reuters, and several suicide bombers were involved. Some of them were reportedly able to detonate their vests, though the exact number is unclear. Some of the militants were able to sneak into the base wearing Iraqi uniforms, and they were killed by Iraqi troops when fighting broke out. Militants attacked al-Baghdadi from two directions and then advanced into the town on Thursday, according to intelligence sources and Iraqi army officials, Reuters reported. The death toll from the fighting has not been revealed. Officials also said that a group of ISIS militants tried to break into the heavily guarded Ain al-Asad air base on Thursday but were repelled by the Iraqi army, which was backed by coalition fighter planes. Additionally, a small group of Islamic State fighters attacked the nearby Al Asad airbase after gaining ground in al Baghdadi. The Washington Post reported that eight jihadists, including three suicide bombers, launched a suicide assault on the base but were all killed. No significant damage to the base was reported. The Islamic State took credit for attacking Al Asad, in a message released in its daily radio announcements. "In addition, the army of the Caliphate made progress in the area of al Baghdadi, as soldiers of the Islamic State targeted the Safavid [a derogatory term for Shiites referring to the ancient Persian dynasty] al Asad Base in al-Baghdadi, where the American military trains forces of the Safavid army," the statement, which was translated by SITE Intelligence Group, said. The Islamic State also talked about its advances the town in the same statement. "Also, soldiers of the Caliphate took control over the Citizenship Department, in which the Safavids had fortified themselves," the statement said, "and the al Baghdadi police station, and a barracks of the Safavid army, and the shameful Awakenings [Sunni tribal allies of the ISF] on the Wahid bridge in Jubah, and also cut off the al Baghdadi - Haditha highway."

According to Reuters, a district manager said that "Ninety percent of al-Baghdadi district has fallen under the control of the insurgents." Reuters goes on to say that the Islamic State attacked from two directions, and then proceeded to advance into the town. The Washington Post reported that an estimated 1,000 fighters took part in the offensive in al Baghdadi. This number cannot be independently verified, however, given the strategic importance of the objective, it is likely that a large numbers of Islamic State militants are taking part in the offensive. Other Iraqi officials claimed that Iraqi Security Forces and their Sunni tribal allies in the Awakening were able to drive the Islamic State attackers back. However, Sheikh Naim of the Albu Nimr tribe countered these claims by saying that the Islamic State now controls large portions of al Baghdadi, according to Almada. Naim goes on to say that, "the security forces did not launch until now any military operation to retake areas seized by the organization [Islamic State]."

13 Feb, Islamic State fighters reportedly seized most of a western Iraqi town on Thursday, in fighting taking place mere miles from an air base where hundreds of U.S. Marines are training Iraqis Reuters, quoting local officials, reported Thursday that ISIS

militants had overrun much of the town of al-Baghdadi. One local Iraqi official told Reuters that, "Ninety percent of al-Baghdadi district has fallen under the control of the insurgents."A Defense Department spokeswoman confirmed to Fox News that “heavy fighting” took place in that area on Thursday, but referred questions about the status of the town to the Iraq government.“ There was no direct attack on the Al Asad air base,” the spokeswoman assured, while acknowledging reports of “ineffective indirect fire in the vicinity of the base.” Reuters had reported that, according to unnamed officials, a group of insurgents did attack the well-fortified base but failed to break in. The Al Asad air base is where 320 U.S. Marines are stationed training Iraqi forces. It is a mere 13-minute drive from al-Baghdadi to the base.“It bears watching,” retired Col. Thomas Lynch, a National Defense University fellow, told Fox News, regarding the reports out of Iraq.But he stressed that for the fighters to pose a threat to the base, they’d have to get through the perimeter. While “it’s not impossible,” Lynch said, to do it they would have to amass a large number of fighters – which would make them “vulnerable” to airstrikes. The area in Anbar Province has long been a hot zone of fighting as ISIS looks to hold and expand its self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria. In January, the Pentagon first confirmed that U.S. troops at the Al Asad base had been coming under regular mortar fire. To date, those attacks have been described as ineffective. A senior U.S. official told Fox News the base receives “low-scale” indirect fire from time to time.“ We continue to support efforts by Iraqi Security Forces, working in conjunction with tribal fighters, directed against ISIL in the province,” the DOD spokeswoman said Thursday .According to Reuters, militants attacked the town of al-Baghdadi from two directions before advancing inward. The development comes as the U.S.-led coalition continues to launch airstrikes against ISIS, with Jordan taking on a greater role following the brutal execution of a captured Jordanian pilot at ISIS’ hands. American aid worker Kayla Mueller’s death – which was blamed on ISIS – also was confirmed earlier this week. Citing the deaths of Mueller and other American captives, President Obama on Wednesday asked Congress to give formal approval to use military force against ISIS. Obama said the group poses a “grave threat” and could threaten the U.S. homeland if left “unchecked.”Fox News’

WASHINGTON 13 Feb – Some 3,000 Sunni jihadist fighters have gathered in the Syrian Qalamoun mountains bordering eastern Lebanon, poised to attack a series of Christian towns in northern and central Lebanon. They appear to be preparing to undertake a pincer attack on the north around Tripoli and in the south from the Syrian Golan Heights, according to informed Middle East sources. As they appear to be surviving the harsh winter in the mountains for a possible series of attacks in the spring, The sources say the fighters, comprised of ISIS and the al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, survived the harsh winter in the mountains to position themselves for a possible series of attacks in the spring. To keep open supply lines, the jihadists are conducting sporadic guerrilla attacks against the Lebanese army.Nusra and ISIS fighters generally have been fighting with one another, but in Lebanon there appears to be increasing coordination of their fighters, although their objectives are different, sources add.According to Middle East analyst Mario Abou Zeid, elements of the Free Syrian Army, which has U.S. backing, also have begun to team up with Nusra fighters.“Free Syrian Army fighters had begun to lose hope of receiving any significant aid from foreign stakeholders,” Zeid said. “The well-supplied Nusra Front won the trust and loyalty of these fighters, which translated into cooperation in Qalamoun. There is a “new death triangle for ISIS,” Lebanese Interior Minister Mouhad al-Machnouq said recently, “stretching from the barren Lebanese lands of Arsal to the Palestinian Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp and Roumieh prison (in east Beirut), reaching Iraq and Raqqa,” the ISIS caliphate capital in Syria. Arsal is where ISIS and Nusra began their foray last August inside northern Lebanon, taking

hostages in the process, including numerous members of the Lebanese army. After the town of 35,000 residents exchanged hands a few times, Arsal has become a center of strict Islamic law imposed on its occupants. The “death triangle” to which Machuouq referred, said Middle East economist Sami Nader, “suggests that Lebanon not only represents a strategic depth for Hezbollah and (Syrian President Bashar) al-Assad’s regime, but also that ISIS is taking refuge within its borders to escape the international alliance’s airstrikes against it on the eastern front.” For now, the Lebanese army has been thwarting numerous attacks in the surrounding towns in the north around Ras Baalbek, which is only about 25 miles from the historic Roman city of Baalbek, which has been a major tourist magnet.There have been periodic attacks around Baalbek and near Britel in areas controlled by the Iranian-backed Shia Hezbollah but, to date, the Sunni jihadist attacks have been unsuccessful.Deep in Shia-controlled territory, Baalbek, where settlements are believed to go back 9,000 years, has withstood centuries of attacks from barbarians, the Greeks and the Romans. The city once was given as a gift by the Roman general Marcus Antonius – Marc Antony – to his lover, Egyptian queen Cleopatra, as a birthday gift.ISIS ‘stepping stones’Ras Baalbek, in the northern part of the Bekaa Valley, is in a Christian region of the country. Nusra and ISIS seek to target it as a stepping stone to such other ancient Christian towns in central Bekaa as Zahle, Firzel, Ablah and Drous (see map).

image: http://www.wnd.com/files/2015/02/lebanon-christians.jpg“(Jihadist fighters) are under pressure in the ongoing battle in Syria; in retaliation they may attack the Bekaa, but I assure you they will not be able to do more than hit and run operations,” one Lebanese source told WND. “The army is ready alongside the resistance (Hezbollah),” he said. “We will prevail, the takfiris (foreign fighters) will not prevail. God does not allow the takfiri to prevail.” In the predominantly Christian region, Islamist fighters have threatened to attack churches and the Christians themselves. In response, the residents are taking up arms. “If Hezbollah did not exist, it would have been necessary to create it,” said Albert Mansour, a former government minister who is a resident of Ras Baalbek. “The party’s existence makes the people – including Sunnis, Shiites and Christians of the region – feel safe in the face of this strange formation,” referring to the presence of the Sunni jihadist fighters.According to Esperance Ghanem, however, such attacks would give the militants “both field and moral gains.” “The field aspect is related to how close these villages are to the international road connecting Beirut to Damascus,” Ghanem said. Called the Al-Sham, or Damascus road, Ghanem said it is of strategic importance to supply lines to Syria and is a “vital crossing connecting the northern Bekaa to central and western Bekaa, where some Christian villages are located.”Threatening supply routeMiddle East expert Jean Aziz said the Damascus-to-Beirut road would cut the supply route between Hezbollah and the Syrian army and also represent a serious threat to the Syrian capital of Damascus itself. “The accomplishment of this would be highly dangerous for Hezbollah and thus cannot be taken lightly,” Aziz said. Ghanem said it also connects the southern Bekaa region around Arkoub near the Syrian town of Beit Jinn, which remains under the control of the militants and an entry point from which the militants could try to get through to Arkoub. “This goal cannot be achieved unless the militants invest in the moral gains they are aiming to accomplish in the even that their plan in Ras Baalbek had worked and they had succeeded in displacing its residents as well as the residents of other regions by spreading fear across the Christian villages of the central and western Bekaa, guaranteeing there would be no resistance,” Ghanem said.

To date, the Lebanese army has thwarted the plan by blunting their push into Tallet al-Hamra, even though the militants are expected to continue their probing attacks. Nevertheless, Aziz said the Israeli-Syrian border area constitutes a natural geographical extension to the southwest of the Lebanese-Israeli border area. “Any gains by Sunni militant groups opposed to Hezbollah in this area would become a new front for Hezbollah in south Lebanon,” Aziz said. “It would also constitute something of a siege, as Hezbollah would be stuck between Israeli forces on the southern border of Lebanon and armed groups to the east along the

border with Syria,” he said. “For Hezbollah, such a scenario would be unacceptable and impossible to endure” since, as Aziz said, “reports alleging cooperation between Israel and Jabhat al-Nusra makes this especially troubling for the organization.”Aziz was referring to a third area where Lebanon becomes vulnerable, namely in the south opposite the Syrian Golan Heights. He said that area in the three-border area of Lebanon, Syria and Israel is symbolic for Hezbollah and Iran, where Israel on Jan. 18

fired on and killed a group of Hezbollah and Iranian personnel in the Syrian Golan, which has become an area of concern to Hezbollah and Iran.The Hezbollah member leading the group was Jihad Imad Mughniyah, the 25-year-old son of Imad Mughniyah, who was the senior Hezbollah military commander assassinated by Israel and, as reports now reveal, the Central Intelligence Agency on Feb. 12, 2008.In addition to Jihad Mughniyah, there were five other Hezbollah personnel and Iranian Gen. Mohammad Ali Allahdadi, whom sources say was the depty for Syrian operations to Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel claims they were planning an attack on the northern part of the country. However, other sources tell WND that the Israelis knew the Hezbollah/Iranian group was planning an attack on Nusra fighters who occupy the area.In turn, this led to the charge that Israel is working with Nusra. “Some Israeli media outlets have further revealed direct cooperation between the militants and the Israeli army,” Aziz said, “and other media outlets have reported about the lack of animosity between the Israeli state and Jabhat al-Nusra, which represents al-Qaida in Syria, as well as Israeli reports about direct contacts with the Syrian opposition and mutual reassurances.” Nusra’s positioning in the Syrian Golan is not only seen as threatening Hezbollah’s presence at that strategic location to ward off any southern invasion of Lebanon from the jihadists. But it is a strategic location for the Iranian-proxy group against Israel to its north.