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C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-122-Caliphate-al-Zawahiri-10-32-Russia ISIS threatens to attack Russia very soon vowing: 'Blood will spill like an ocean', Nov 30. With reports that the United States is seeking to wage war against seemingly ‘weak’ Russia, a recent research shows that the ex-Soviet, largest in the world, nuclear-powered country ruled by an unpredictable person might not be as ‘weak’ as it is believed to be Dec 15, Experts are saying that Russia's military is more advanced than everyone thought, and that Syria has allowed it to showcase its progress to the world. Russia has used a new aircraft that has never before appeared in war, and is launching new cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea that can travel more than 900 miles further than their American equivalent. "This is an amazingly capable new weapon," The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston Churchill CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 15 24/06/2022

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Page 1: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-122-Caliphate-al-Zawahiri-10-32-Russia

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-122-Caliphate-al-Zawahiri-10-32-Russia

ISIS threatens to attack Russia very soon vowing: 'Blood will spill like an ocean', Nov 30.

With reports that the United States is seeking to wage war against seemingly ‘weak’ Russia, a recent research shows that the ex-Soviet, largest in the world, nuclear-powered country ruled by an unpredictable person might not be as ‘weak’ as it is believed to be

Dec 15, Experts are saying that Russia's military is more advanced than everyone thought, and that Syria has allowed it to showcase its progress to the world. Russia has used a new aircraft that has never before appeared in war, and is launching new cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea that can travel more than 900 miles further than their American equivalent. "This is an amazingly capable new weapon," Michael Kofman, a fellow at the Kennan Institute in Washington, DC, told The New York Times.Russian battle tactics and strategy have advanced, too.

"What continues to impress me is their ability to move a lot of stuff real far, real fast," Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of the US Army forces in Europe, said, per The Times.

This shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin has successfully modernized a military many thought was behind its Western counterparts.

Dec 14, Russia’s military tactics in Syria differ so much from those of the U.S. and its allies that it could be impossible to operate together, U.S. and European officials said,

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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complicating the sputtering effort to forge a partnership between Moscow and the West against Islamic State.

“They are very indiscriminate, which is deliberate,” said Michael Clarke, who recently stepped down from the helm of the Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank in London. “The problem for the West is that the Russians are conducting their campaign like Chechnya,” he said, referring to the conflict that began in the 1990s during which the Russians leveled much of the city of Grozny.

Dec 13, "Today, the crew of Captain Dmitry Zelikov on the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine Verkhoturye (NATO: Delta IV) of the Northern Fleet made a successful launch of the 'Sineva' intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from a designated area in the Barents Sea," the ministry said in a prepared statement.The test was the 27th successful launch from the submarine and was the fourth test of a submarine-launched missile by Russia this year, according to the ministry.

Dec 14, With reports that the United States is seeking to wage war against seemingly ‘weak’ Russia, a recent research shows that the ex-Soviet, largest in the world, nuclear-powered country ruled by an unpredictable person might not be as ‘weak’ as it is believed to be. In just 20 years, Russia has managed without wars and other “perturbations” to rise from a semi-colony with its economy at the level of the third world to a respected world leader, capable of standing equal to world’s top leaders, according to Global Research citing Rostislav Ischenko, analyst at MIA Rossiya Segodnya.

The Research also notes that there are many of those “kitchen strategists” who “sincerely believe” that Russia can get away with anything and solve all of its problems by threatening massive nuclear strikes against the West. But those ‘kitchen strategists’ were surprised and unhappy to witness Russia’s rather moderate position in the conflict with Turkey, who shot down a Russian jet in its

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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airspace last month.But then Research outlines a number of factors that allowed Russia, a country that economically and financially was at the level of a third world country, to all of a sudden become capable of standing up to the world hegemonic power and successfully challenge U.S. global dominance “on all fronts.”“National security was supported only by nukes, as to conduct any serious operation even within its own borders, the army did have neither trained personnel nor modern equipment, fleet could not sail, and aviation could not fly,” the author of the research noted in his article.But it has been decades on the invisible (diplomatic) front that helped Russia reach its current military and diplomatic successes, according to the research. In 1996, Russia was still at the darkest depths of the economic pit, while the U.S. totally disregarded the international law replacing it with its arbitrary actions, the author notes.Russia: Two decades to finally challenge U.S. global dominance

NATO, meanwhile, was fully prepared to get closer to the Russian borders, but Moscow does not have the strength to respond with. With the fact that the newly created Russia, which absorbed most of the military benefits from the USSR, could destroy any attacker in just 20 minutes, nobody was willing to take a risk and fight the nuclear-powered country.“Any deviation from the Washington-approved line, any attempt to pursue an independent foreign policy would lead to economic strangulation and subsequent internal destabilization – at that time the country lives on Western credits,” the author of the research noted.

It took Russia two decades to consolidate the power internally and restore its economic and financial systems, enabling the country to become independent from Western financial support. All that was in parallel with Russia turning its military into a modern, intimidating army. And finally, Russia needed allies, according to the research.

Russian leadership had a tough mission: to start dispersing Russia’s influence around the world starting with ex-Soviet states, find allies that want to challenge U.S. global dominance – all the while creating an illusion in the West that Russia is weak in terms of both military and economic strength.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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Western myths about Russia allowed Putin to build a great country – research

And Russia successfully completed the mission of creating the illusion of its weakness. With the help of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has created the myths that still lurk in the heads of many Western analysts and pro-American Russia opposition, according to the research.

“For example, if Russia opposes another instance of Western adventurism, it is ‘bluffing to save face’, the Russian elites are totally dependent on the West because ‘their money is there’, ‘Russia sells out its allies’,” the author of the research noted.But the world can no longer believe in myths that Russia’s rusty rockets don’t fly, or that Russia’s economy is in tatters. Only “marginals” believe in those myths, “who are not really incapable, but are too afraid to acknowledge the reality.”The research says that these very myths and illusions about the state of Russia’s economy, military and the overall idea about the country as a whole gave Russia the precious time for reforms, all the while returning its influence in the Middle East, developing integration with ex-USSR states through Eurasian Economic Union, as well as creating intimidating integration projects with China – Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS.U.S. wants war with Russia: former U.S. Army officerWith U.S. President Barack Obama’s move to deploy U.S. fighter jets closer to the Turkish-Syrian border to “target Russian planes,” the tensions between Washington and Moscow could spiral into a “devastating nuclear war,” according to a U.S. representative, as reported by ValueWalk last week. Amid escalated tensions between the two countries, there are indications that the U.S. is seeking to wage World War 3 with Russia, according to a former U.S. Army officer.U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to Ukraine last week indicated that Washington wants to start a war with Russia by escalating tensions in the war-torn eastern European country, says Joachim Hagopian, former U.S. Army officer, as reported by ValueWalk last week. Biden arrived in Ukraine to reassure the Ukrainian government that Washington still remembers its ally despite the fact that the U.S. cooperates with Russia on fighting Daesh (aka ISIS, ISIL, IS) terrorists in Syria. Biden arrived in Ukraine to “kind of reassure the Kiev puppet ally government that the United States is standing behind them, ready for

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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World War 3 against Russia,” Hagopian told Press TV.

MOSCOW, December 14. /TASS/. The Russian Defense Ministry will purchase about 200 planes and helicopters and up to 30 surface ships and submarines a year, the chief of Russia’s General Staff Valery Gerasimov told a news briefing for foreign military attaches in Moscow on Monday.

"There are plans for purchasing an annual 70-100 planes and more than 120 helicopters and up to 30 surface ships, submarines and special and auxiliary ships and 600 armoured vehicles a year," Gerasimov said.

Russia Military Spending 2016: Navy, Air Force To Modernize, Expand, Kremlin Says i

BY LYDIA TOMKIW ON 12/14/15 The Kremlin announced Monday it would purchase 200 planes and helicopters, as well as up to 30 ships and submarines annually to modernize its armed forces. The announcement comes amid high tensions between Ankara and Moscow following a Russian destroyer firing warning shots at a Turkish ship in the Aegean Sea over the weekend. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy continues to suffer from low oil prices and Western sanctions imposed in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea."There are plans for purchasing an annual 70-100 planes and more than 120 helicopters and up to 30 surface ships, submarines and special and auxiliary ships and 600 armored vehicles a year," Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s General Staff, said, Russian news agency TASS reported. “The state program for armaments extending till 2021 will increase the share of modern weapons and military hardware to no less than 70 percent.”Gerasimov said Russia would focus on further developing its naval and air power in the next decade. Russia’s armament plan for 2011-20 focused mainly on intelligence and communications equipment, as well as the country’s nuclear arsenal. As Russia continues airstrikes in Syria, the country’s Defense Ministry said 200 new or upgraded aircraft would be added to its fleet in 2016.Russian Military Expenditure Over Time | FindTheData The military spending comes as oil prices languish at below $40 a barrel. Russia’s 2016 budget is based on oil prices

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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remaining at $50 a barrel. The country’s budget deficit is projected to hit more than $21 billion in 2016, the Moscow Times reported.Turkey downed a Russian aircraft last month claiming it had illegally entered sovereign airspace. The Kremlin has continued to deny it entered Turkish airspace, further raising tensions among Western allies. "Russia and Turkey certainly have to re-establish the relations of trust that we have always had, but our patience has a limit," Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said, Reuters reported Monday.Çavuşoğlu accused Russia of targeting groups opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad in its airstrikes in Syria instead of fighting the Islamic State terrorist group. Russia began conducting airstrikes there at the end of September.

- iiRussia currently operates 10 ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), of which three Delta IIIs based in the Pacific are outdated and six Delta IVs based in the Barents Sea have recently been refurbished to serve for another decade or so. The 10th SSBN added in January 2013 is the first of a new type of Borei-class SSBNs that are scheduled to replace all Deltas by the mid/late-2020s. The first Borei-class (Project 955) SSBN, Yuri Dolgoruki, entered service after more than 15 years of design and construction, marking the first time in 25 years that the Russian Navy had commissioned a new SSBN. A second Borei has been launched and a third is under construction. Russia has announced plans to build a total of eight Boreis. Each Borei is equipped with 16 SS-N-32 (Bulava) SLBMs, a missile that Russia has declared can carry up to six warheads.The fourth and subsequent Borei-class SSBNs will be of an improved design, known as Borei-II or Project 955A). Russian news media is full of rumors that the improved Boreis will be equipped with 20 SLBMs instead of 16 on each of the first three boats. Some Russian officials dispute that, saying all Boreis will be equipped with 16 missiles.

MOSCOW, December 14. /TASS/. Next year’s priorities for the Russian army will be maintaining the strategic offensive and strategic defensive forces to deter aggression against Russia and its allies, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces,

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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General Valery Gerasimov said on Monday. "The main directions of the further building and development of the Armed Forces will be maintaining the status of the strategic offensive and strategic defensive forces at a level ensuring guaranteed fulfilment of the tasks of deterring aggression against the Russian Federation and its allies," Gerasimov said at a briefing for foreign military attaches accredited in Russia.Another priority will be boosting the combat potential of the main attack units and the command information system of the strategic deterrence forces with a view to inflict guaranteed damage on the enemy.In addition, according to the General Staff chief, the country’s aerospace forces will be upgraded for combating modern and prospective enemy’s aerospace attack weapons, and combat power of the joint force groupings in military districts will be boosted.Gerasimov said that the Defense Ministry’s system of research organizations will also be improved. In addition, it is planned to develop relations with the allied countries, including within the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and Shanghai Cooperation organisation (SCO).

Russia is bringing its big guns to Syria. Literally. Dec 14 The Russian army is literally bringing its big guns to the war in Syria. U.S. military analysts said the decision to add artillery to the battlefield indicates a number of key developments, including the Kremlin's growing influence in planning and executing Syrian military operations.It could be a sign that Russia is dedicated to a conventional ground war — not just air strikes — in support of Syrian leader Bashar Al Assad, a staunch ally long supported by

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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Moscow.Since at least October, Russia fielded heavy artillery units near the cities of Homs and Hama, pounding targets there, according to a top U.S. State Department official. However, most of Russia's firepower was at Latakia air base in western Syria until recently. The Russian decision to move artillery to the front lines is a newer development. Officially, Moscow denies that it has ground forces engaged in military operations in Syria. There's certainly Russian influence within the Syrian army … and lots of guns. Gen. Ali Ayoub, the Syrian army's chief of staff, made a brief televised statement last month declaring the launch of a broad ground offensive that would be coordinated with Russia's air campaign. He said the attack would include newly formed ground units including a "4th Assault Corps." In an article in OE Watch, a magazine published by the U.S. Army's Foreign Military Studies Office, analysts noted that pro-Assad media quickly hailed the new strategy.The article quoted the pro-Hezbollah Al Hadath News. "The (Syrian) forward forces are supported by mortar cover and artillery regiments behind the support lines, as well as aerial cover from the Russian Sukhois," Al Hadath stated. "The Syrian army surge is proof of a new tactical military model, spiced with Russian flavors and led by the Sukhois from above, and which also includes greater use of artillery batteries," the article continued.

According to OE Watch, there is conflicting information about the composition and manpower of the 4th Assault Corps. But its formation could herald a new direction for the Syrian military and its battle against anti-Assad rebels, including a shift toward reliance on conventional forces and artillery.

Russian military doctrine places far more emphasis on artillery than Western armies. In Ukraine, both Kiev and Kremlin-backed separatists make liberal use of artillery owing in part to their shared Soviet lineage.

Before the war in Syria, Assad's howitzer arsenal was universally Soviet and Russian in origin. The Syrian army could depend on thousands of static and self-propelled guns. Since the conflict, Moscow has further beefed up Assad's artillery with more advanced 152-millimeter MTSA-B guns, BM-27 Uragan and BM-30 Smerch rocket launchers."Due to the Syrian army's strong reliance upon artillery, it is unsurprisingly that providing artillery assets is one way that Russia is attempting to bolster the Assad regime," OE Watch noted. "Perhaps what is surprising is the types of artillery systems that are being provided." The deadliest of all may be the TOS-1A Solnitsa rocket launcher, which was spotted on video launching its warheads in Latakia. Mounted on a T-72 tank chassis, the TOS-1A can fire 30 220-millimeter thermobaric or incendiary rockets in a single salvo."The resultant explosion — which is usually much larger than an equivalent weight of conventional ordnance — creates a massive high temperature blast and a high-pressure shock wave," Dave Majumdar wrote at The National Interest. "Those who are in the affected area — who are not immediately incinerated — die when the overpressure destroys their lungs."

In Syria, the increased use of artillery could also indicate a shift away from military operations organized around insurgent forces recruited by Iran to a different military model that relies on Russian organization.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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i

Regards Cees***

Sep 5, 2014. Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Wales

#14 We agree to reverse the trend of declining defence budgets, to make the most effective use of our funds and to further a more balanced sharing of costs and responsibilities. Our overall security and defence depend both on how much we spend and how we spend it. Increased investments should be directed towards meeting our capability priorities, and Allies also need to display the political will to provide required capabilities and deploy forces when they are needed. A strong defence industry across the Alliance, including a stronger defence industry in Europe and greater defence industrial cooperation within Europe and across the Atlantic, remains essential for delivering the required capabilities. NATO and EU efforts to strengthen defence capabilities are complementary. Taking current commitments into account, we are guided by the following considerations:

Allies currently meeting the NATO guideline to spend a minimum of 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence will aim to continue to do so. Likewise, Allies spending more than 20% of their defence budgets on major equipment, including related Research & Development, will continue to do so.

Allies whose current proportion of GDP spent on defence is below this level will:halt any decline in defence expenditure;aim to increase defence expenditure in real terms as GDP grows;aim to move towards the 2% guideline within a decade with a view to meeting

their NATO Capability Targets and filling NATO's capability shortfalls.Allies who currently spend less than 20% of their annual defence spending on major new

equipment, including related Research & Development, will aim, within a decade, to increase their annual investments to 20% or more of total defence expenditures.

All Allies will:ensure that their land, air and maritime forces meet NATO agreed guidelines for

deployability and sustainability and other agreed output metrics;ensure that their armed forces can operate together effectively, including through the implementation of agreed NATO standards and doctrines.ii https://fas.org/blogs/security/2013/05/russianssbns/