al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2015 part 4-1-syria-6

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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-6

Previous: Boots on the Ground Turkey Plans to Send Troops Into Syria, Widening the War The Turkish military is not enthusiastic and Washington may have its doubts, but President Erdogan appears determined to set up a buffer zone. A Saudi newspaper claimed that Turkey is paving the ground for military intervention in Syria amid the Syrian army and Kurdish forces' united operations to defend their lands against the ISIL in the Northeastern city of Hasaka

More than four years into Syria's war, the country is ever more divided into a patchwork of areas controlled by the government or armed groups including Islamist insurgents, Kurdish militia, the ultra-hardline Islamic State, and rebels who profess a more moderate vision for Syria.

The Turkish and Jordanian armies were reported on June 30 to be getting ready to cross into Syria for the first time since war engulfed that country in 2011, and set up security buffer zones

Analysts say the fall of Syria's second city would be a major setback for President Bashar al-Assad. Rebel alliance; A statement by the rebel groups said their goal was to "liberate the city of Aleppo" and to ensure it would be ruled by Sharia principles. A new alliance of rebel groups called Ansar Sharia is reportedly behind the assault on Aleppo. It includes the jihadist al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria

Syrian Kurdish activists and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) have denied claims that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has recaptured a Syrian town from Kurdish-led forces near Raqqa city.

We can't win a war without taking sides; (UK) The sad truth is that in the fourth year of the Syrian war, western capitals still muddled over which side they are on. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that more than half the area of Syria is now under the control of Isis. President Bashar al-Assad probably holds another third, though these proportions are a little deceptive because the government still holds most of Damascus, the main cities and the roads linking them. But the Syrian army has been losing ground since March this year and an expanding area is being seized by a coalition led by Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate, in the north, which is reportedly supported by Sunni states such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies. There is an attempt to rebrand al-Nusra as kinder, gentler jihadis, but those who believe this propaganda should reflect on al-Nusra’s unstinting praise for the perpetrators of 9/11. Assad may be about to lose the city of Daraa in the south to the Southern Front, an alliance of groups which present themselves as more moderate than Isis or al-Qaeda, and is financed and supported by the Military Operations Centre (MOC) in Amman that is staffed by agents from the US, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE and other anti-Assad countries.

Of course, many states down the centuries have supported multiple sides in somebody else’s civil war. A problem is that in Syria this may no longer be sustainable because it is Isis and the most extreme Islamist groups that will ultimately benefit from the weakening of Assad and the government in Damascus. In the case of the Southern Front, often advertised as an anti-Assad force which is not extreme jihadi, its guise may be adopted to hoodwink foreign backers. The Syrian expert Aron Lund writing in the online magazine Syria in Crisis says that the “adoption of MOC-provided talking points” by members of this alliance are likely “to be more opportunistic than heartfelt”.

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Assad’s forces are exhausted but are not close to collapse, though his hopes of retaking the whole of Aleppo and advancing into other rebel-held parts of Syria are gone; he is vulnerable to a push from the Isis-held half of Syria to the east. At some point, the US and UK may end up bombing Isis when it is fighting an increasingly battered Syrian army. This will get more difficult as time goes on and Isis expands into Damascus, Aleppo, Homs and Hama.

But it may be a mistake to imagine that the US and British (and others) bombing of Isis, when it is fighting the Syrian army, would simply secure Assad in power. The militarisation of politics in Syria since 2011 has benefited both Isis and Assad: it has left Syrians opposed to Isis and al-Nusra, but even more terrified of Assad’s forces, with no alternative but to fight and die with the jihadis. Likewise, if you are an Alawite, Christian, Druze or simply a Sunni working for the central government, you rightfully fear that if Assad goes down, so do you and your family who will lose their homes, jobs and possibly their heads. You will have heard the opposition slogan “Alawites to the cemetery and Christians to Beirut”. You will have no alternative but to stick with Assad. If Assad’s forces do begin to disintegrate, then we will probably end up supporting them covertly to prevent Isis or al-Nusra from seizing the whole of Syria, so we might as well do so openly and at an earlier stage so we gain real leverage over the government in Damascus.

Jul 5, BEIRUT (AP) — Islamic militants and rebels in Syria launched fresh attacks on government-held neighborhoods in Aleppo on Friday, setting off some of the heaviest fighting in months in the contested northern city, activists and state media said. The fighting is part of a new coordinated offensive in Aleppo by a newly-formed coalition between al-Qaeda's branch in Syria, the Nusra Front, and the ultra-conservative Ahrar al-Sham group, and other rebels. The groups said they seek to "liberate" Aleppo under their coalition called Ansar al-Sharia.

Beirut (AFP) - Two alliances of Syrian rebels battled to advance in government-held western Aleppo on Saturday, seizing an army barracks in one district but losing ground in others, in some of the fiercest fighting in the city since the conflict began. US-led coalition forces, meanwhile, said they carried out a series of 16 airstrikes against the Islamic State group in their Syrian stronghold of Raqa, one of their biggest assaults on the extremists.


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How to Beat ISIS: Divide Syria Into Parts By Michael O'Hanlon 7/4/15 While the Obama administration’s strategy for Iraq requires substantial upgrading in light of recent Islamic State (or ISIS or ISIL) successes in and around Ramadi in particular, the plan for Syria is in much worse shape. The peace process is dead. So are a quarter million Syrians, with another 12 million displaced.

Joint Chiefs Chairman General Martin Dempsey has just testified to Congress that only some 150 moderate opposition fighters are currently receiving training from the U.S. Department of Defense—at a time when ISIL’s forces may number 30,000 and President Bashar al-Assad’s army several tens of thousands as well. Meanwhile, ISIS continues to threaten the region and to inspire lone-wolf terrorist attacks around the globe.

What to do? Counterintuitively, at this stage, the only realistic path forward may be a plan that in effect deconstructs Syria. A comprehensive, national-level solution is too hard even to specify at this stage, much less effect. Instead, the international community should work to create pockets with more viable security and governance within Syria over time. With initial footholds in place, the strategy could develop further in a type of “ink-spot” campaign that eventually sought to join the various local initiatives into a broader and more integrated effort.

Safe, autonomous zones This approach builds on current U.S. strategy, but with a much less glaring mismatch between means and ends. Requiring ideological purity of opposition fighters would no longer be quite as high of a bar. Training them in the safety of Turkey, Jordan and other friendly countries would still be the first step, but not a sufficient one. The idea would be to help moderate elements establish reliable safe zones within Syria once they were able. American, as well as Saudi and Turkish and British and Jordanian and other Arab forces would act in support, not only from the air but eventually on the ground via special forces. The approach would benefit from Syria’s open desert terrain which could allow creation of buffer zones that could be monitored for possible signs of enemy attack. Western forces themselves would remain in more secure positions in general—within the safe zones but back from the front lines—at least until the reliability of such defenses, and also local allied forces, made it practical to deploy and live in more forward locations.Creation of these sanctuaries would produce autonomous zones that would never again have to face the prospect of rule by either Assad or ISIS. They would also represent areas where humanitarian relief could be supplied, schools reopened and larger opposition fighting forces recruited, trained and based. U.N. agencies and NGOs would help to the extent possible; regardless, relief could certainly be provided far more effectively than is the case today. The end-game for these zones would not have to be determined in advance. The interim goal might be a confederal Syria, with several highly autonomous zones and a modest (eventual) national government. The confederation would likely require support from an international peacekeeping force, if this arrangement could ever be formalized by accord. But in the short term, the ambitions would be lower—to make these zones defensible and governable, to help provide relief for populations within them, and to train and equip more recruits so that the zones could be stabilized and then gradually expanded.Changing the approach This plan would differ from current strategy in three main ways.

First, the idea would be plainly stated as the avowed goal of the United States. This could reduce disagreements with other sponsors of the insurgency, and many of the insurgents themselves, since American policy would be based on a more realistic squaring of means with ends. It would also help dispel the lurking suspicion that Washington was content to tolerate the Assad government now as the lesser of two evils. Among other benefits, this could reduce frictions in America’s relationships with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and several other key regional countries.


http://www.newsweek.com/authors/michael-ohanlon


Second, Syrian insurgents would be vetted on a somewhat different set of criteria. While extremist ideologies would still be seen as disqualifying, past collaboration with extremist elements of the insurgency would not itself be viewed as a scarlet letter—since some of that collaboration could have been a necessary means of surviving on Syria’s complex and challenging battlefield.

Third, multilateral support teams, grounded in special forces detachments and air-defense capabilities as needed, would be prepared for deployment into parts of Syria once opposition elements were able to seize and reliably hold strong points. This last part would of course be the most challenging, and the actual deployment of any such teams the most fraught. It need not be rushed. It could be undertaken in the safest zones first—perhaps in Kurdish areas, for example, and then near the Jordanian border in conjunction with Jordanian forces. But it’s a necessary part of the effort.

Beginning the planning immediately would not only help prove American seriousness about the overall campaign plan, but also allow for coordination with humanitarian and development groups. The plan would be directed not only against ISIS but in part against Assad as well. In a bow to reality, however, it would not explicitly seek to overthrow him, so much as deny him control of territory that he might still aspire to govern again. The autonomous zones would be liberated with the clear understanding that there was no going back to rule by Assad or a successor. In any case, Assad would not be a military target under this concept, but areas he currently controls (and cruelly bombs) would be. And if Assad delayed too long in accepting a deal for exile, he could inevitably face direct dangers to his rule and even his person. Don’t kick the can This type of plan may be the only realistic path forward, recognizing battlefield realities, the key interests of various regional actors and the actual options we have before us. Moreover, while it is not without risks for the United States, the scale of military involvement envisioned is not substantially greater than what we have been doing the last year or so in Afghanistan. President Obama can stay true to his most important pledges—to downsize America’s role in the wars of the Middle East, while doing everything in his power to protect the country from further terrorist attack—with such an approach. He should not view Syria as a problem to hand to his successor, but rather a crisis that demands his attention and a new strategy now.Michael O’Hanlon is senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. This essay first appeared on the Brookings site.

Turkey and Jordan said preparing buffer zones inside Syria. Israeli air support mooted. Putin issues warning DEBKAfile Special Report June 30, 2015, 10:09 AM (IDT)

The Turkish and Jordanian armies were reported on June 30 to be getting ready to cross into Syria for the first time since war engulfed that country in 2011, and set up security buffer zones. Both are impelled to fight ISIS, oppose the Assad regime and anxious to stem the flow of refugees, but there are also differences in their objectives and it is not clear if they are coordinated.Turkey has prepared 18,000 troops to carve out a buffer zone in northern Syria and use its air force to impose a no-fly zone against Syrian flights. Middle East sources report that the Jordanian army is also on the ready to cross into southern Syria. Jordan and Israel are reported to be planning joint air cover and the creation of a parallel no-fly zone in the south.These preparations prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to pledge his support for the Assad regime .On Monday, June 29, Putin summoned Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem to his Kremlin office from a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov



to tell him that Russia’s "policy to support Syria, the Syrian leadership and the Syrian people remains unchanged."Putin has repeatedly warned Western governments against military intervention in the Syrian war or any attempt to oust Bashar Assad, warning that if foreign troops go into Syria, Moscow will respond in kind. The Russians have not spelled out what action is contemplated, but they have options: they maintain naval and marine forces in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions able to reach Syria at short notice. South Russian air force bases are also close enough to interfere with no-fly zones being setup over Syria.Possible outside military intervention in Syria was the dominant topic in the phone call the Russian president put through to President Barack Obama on June 26. The communiqués in Moscow and Washington both referred to the “dangerous situation” in Syria. The two presidents also discussed the prospects of the nuclear accord shaping up with Iran, and the two issues may have been linked. The White House later stated that President Obama had stressed the need for the world powers to hold to a united stand in the negotiations with Iran. Sources in Ankara claim that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already given Turkish units their orders to go into Syria, although this is not confirmed. Others use the term “Western intervention” - suggesting that US and NATO are involved in the Turkish initiative. This may refer to US Air Force squadrons based in southern Turkey possibly providing air cover.

Western and Middle East sources report that the Jordanian plan entails a joint operation with Syrian rebel forces to carve out a security zone in southern Syria running from Jabal Druze and Suwayda in the east running west through the town of Deraa and up to the intersection of the Jordanian-Syrian-Israeli borders. Fierce fighting has been raging in this part of Syria in recent days as the rebels battle Syrian-Hizballah forces in an attempt to push them out and capture southern Syria. So far they have not made it.The never-ending refugee problem from Syria is a major headache for the two governments. Turkey hosts some two million refugees and Jordan more than a million and a half. Stemming this flow is not the least of the goals of their buffer zone plans.

Syria conflict: 'Massive rebel assault' to take Aleppo. Syrian rebels led by Islamist groups have begun a massive assault that aims to take full control of the northern city of Aleppo, monitors report.

3 July, Rebels fired hundreds of rockets and missiles into government-held areas in a multi-district attack, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. It said the Syrian military had returned fire and launched air raids. Analysts say the fall of Syria's second city would be a major setback for President Bashar al-Assad. The UK-based Observatory said that four civilians had been killed and more than 70 wounded in the rebel offensive, while five rebel fighters were killed in clashes with government forces in western Aleppo. Rebel alliance; A statement by the rebel groups said their goal was to "liberate the city of Aleppo" and to ensure it would be ruled by Sharia principles. A new alliance of rebel groups called Ansar Sharia is reportedly behind the assault on Aleppo. It includes the jihadist al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria. Control of Aleppo, Syria's largest city and the country's industrial and financial centre, has been divided between government and rebel forces since shortly after fighting began in Syria in 2012.

Khamenei sacks Qassem Soleimani from command of the Syrian war C: No other source reporting, DEBKAfile Special Report June 24, 2015, Uproar in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has relieved Gen. Qassem Soleimani,the Al Qods Brigades chief and supreme commander of Iranian Middle East forces, of his Syria command after a series of war debacles. He was left in charge of Iran’s



military and intelligence operations in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. This is revealed by DEBKAfile’s exclusive Iranian and intelligence sources. Since Soleimani last visited Damascus on June 2, in the aftershock of the historic town of Palmyra’s fall to the Islamic State, the situation of President Bashar Assad and his army has gone from bad to worse. The Iranian general’s bravado in stating then that “In the next few days the world will be pleasantly surprised from what we (the IRGC) working with Syrian military commanders are preparing,” turned out to be empty rhetoric. The thousands of Iranian troops needed to rescue the Assad regime from more routs never materialized. Since then, the Syrian forces have been driven out of more places. Hizballah is not only stymied in its attempts to dislodge Syrian rebel advances in the strategic Qalamoun Mountains, it has failed to prevent the war spilling over into Lebanon. There is strong evidence that the high Iranian command in charge of the Syrian and Lebanese arenas are stuck.These reverses have occurred, our military sources report, owing to Tehran’s failure to foresee five developments:1. The launching of a combined effort by the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE – among the wealthiest nations in the world – in support of rebel groups fighting Bashar Assad. Their massive injections of military assistance, weapons and financial resources have thrown Iran’s limitation into bold relief.2. The ineptitude of the Shiite militias mustered by Soleimani in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan to fight Iran’s wars in Syria and Iraq. None of those imported troops met the combat standards required in those arenas and become liabilities rather than assets.3. Those shortcomings forced Tehran to admit that it had come up short of military manpower to deploy in four ongoing warfronts: Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. Soleimani took flak for the over-ambitious plans he authored which pulled Iran into military commitments that overtaxed its resources and did not take into account the messy political and military consequences which followed. Above all, he miscalculated the numbers of fighting strength needed on the ground for winning battles in those wars.4. In the final reckoning, Iran funds has been drained of the strategic reserves that should have been set aside for the contingency of a potential ISIS encroachment of its territory.

Factbox: Array of combatants deepens complexity of Syria's civil war

June 29, 2015 9:12 AM BEIRUT (Reuters) - More than four years into Syria's war, the country is ever more divided into a patchwork of areas controlled by the government or armed groups including Islamist insurgents, Kurdish militia, the ultra-hardline Islamic State, and rebels who profess a more moderate vision for Syria. The array of combatants with competing agendas is one of the factors complicating diplomatic efforts to end a war has killed more than 220,000 and driven half of Syria's population from their homes. Following are the main combatants in the war:

ISLAMIC STATEThe group is made up of many thousands of fighters. Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared a caliphate a year ago in Syria and Iraq. It split from al Qaeda's Syria wing in 2013 and established a de facto capital in Syria's Raqqa city.Recent estimates says it controls around half of Syrian territory, mainly in less populated areas in the east, as well as in parts of central Syria and in the north. It has a small presence just outside Damascus in the west of the country.Thousands of foreign fighters, including Westerners, have joined. Most of the land it holds in Syria was captured from other insurgent groups. Its more recent offensives have targeted government-held territory, such as the central city of Palmyra.It is the target of a U.S.-led bombing campaign that started last August in Iraq, and in Syria in September.



NUSRA FRONT Al Qaeda's official Syrian arm is perhaps the second most powerful armed group in Syria. It is part of a recently formed rebel alliance called "The Army of Fatah", or Islamic conquest, that has driven Assad from nearly all of Idlib in northwestern Syria since late March. It also has a presence in the south.It is estimated to have many thousands of fighters and its Syrian leader Abu Mohamad al-Golani has said around 30 percent are foreign. Golani fought with Islamic State in Iraq and was sent by Baghdadi to establish the group in Syria. As Nusra grew, he refused to bow to Baghdadi's leadership and the groups have fought each other. The United States has struck some Nusra targets. The U.S. military says it has been bombing jihadists it calls the "Khorasan Group".

THE SOUTHERN FRONT - FREE SYRIAN ARMYWhile Islamists have eclipsed more secular-minded Syrians in much of the country, the south is a stronghold for an alliance still fighting under the banner of the "Free Syrian Army" that emerged in the early days of the conflict.The Southern Front groups profess a vision for Syria that would guarantee the rights of its minorities including President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite sect, Christians, and others who see the jihadists as as an existential threat.The groups have made gains against Assad in southern Syria since late March such as the capture of a border crossing with Jordan and an army base. The Southern Front is run by an operations room in Jordan. Members have received some military support from states opposed to Assad, including Saudi Arabia.The "Free Syrian Army" was founded by defected army officers early in the uprising. Many insurgent groups described themselves as part of the FSA, but do not fight as part of one command structure. Various rebel brigades are also fighting in the north, especially in and around the major city of Aleppo.

AHRAR AL-SHAMA Salafist group believed to have received support from Gulf backers and which is an important component of the Army of Fatah in the northwest. It is a major rebel force despite its senior leadership being wiped out in an attack last September. The attack in Idlib province killed at least 28 of its commanders. One of its slain leaders, Abu Khaled al-Soury, had fought alongside al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden and was close to its current chief Ayman al-Zawahiri. Ahrar al-Sham has a strong presence in the northwest, and has recently appeared more prominently in the south.

ISLAM ARMYAn Islamist group formed by a merger of rebel factions in 2013 and mainly based in the eastern Ghouta area near Damascus.Leader Zahran Alloush is one of the most prominent figures of the insurgency. In an interview with McClatchy published in May, he claimed to have 10,000 fighters in the Damascus suburbs and another 7,000 elsewhere in Syria.He backed away from previous hardline rhetoric, calling Alawites "part of the Syrian people" and saying Syrians would be free to choose "the form of the state they want" after Assad.

THE KURDISH YPGAn organized force which has fought Islamic State across northern Syria with the stated aim of defending three autonomous zones established since the start of the uprising.The YPG has emerged as the only notable partner to date for the U.S.-led alliance against Islamic State. It is effectively the armed wing of the PYD, a Syrian Kurdish party affiliated to the PKK - the Kurdistan Workers' Party. The PKK is listed as a terrorist organization by Washington and the European Union.



The Kurdish administration expanded into areas where the Syrian state was forced to retreat. The Kurds and the government have largely left each other to their own devices, but tensions have flared in recent months. The YPG's influence has alarmed Turkey, which is worried about Kurdish separatist sentiment among its own population.

THE SYRIAN MILITARYThe armed forces numbered around 300,000 personnel before the war and shrunk by some 50 percent through desertions, defections and deaths, analysts and diplomats estimate.Recent rebel advances have in part been attributed to a manpower problem facing the army. The active fighting force is estimated to number in the low tens of thousands.Many who remain are thought to be serving well beyond their usual conscription period. To defend key areas, the military has adapted, relying on units seen as the most loyal to Assad. The army has launched several major campaigns to encourage recruitment and will substantially boost pay for frontline soldiers from July. Despite the challenges, the military still enjoys a major advantage over other groups due to its air force.

SYRIAN PRO-GOVERNMENT MILITIAThe government mobilized local militias to fight alongside regular army forces. Most of these fall under the umbrella of the National Defence Force (NDF).The NDF is believed to number tens of thousands of fighters and is said to be seen by Damascus as more reliable than some sections of the regular army. The NDF, along with other local and foreign militia, has proven crucial to Assad's survival.

HEZBOLLAHThe Lebanese Shi'ite group is heavily involved in the war. Thousands of its members are believed to have fought over the border. Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad described Hezbollah as "our principal ally" in a recent Reuters interview.The Iranian-backed group is carrying out a major operation against insurgents in the Qalamoun mountain area north of Damascus which runs alongside the Lebanese frontier.Leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in May the group was willing to increase its presence in Syria. Observers doubt whether it will expand significantly.

IRANIANS Iran is believed to have sent dozens of military advisers and President Hassan Rouhani has said Tehran will back Assad "until the end of the road".Several senior Iranian military figures have been killed in recent months. Dozens of lower ranking Iranian fighters have also been killed, according to Iranian media reports. A recent article published by the Islamic Republic News Agency estimated that some 400 fighters had been killed in clashes around the Seyeda Zeinab shrine south of Damascus. Tehran backs Hezbollah fighters who are deployed more widely than ever in Syria.

AFGHANI FIGHTERS Shi'ite Afghani militiamen have also fought on the government's side under Iranian command. Rebels say numerous Afghani fighters were among those killed in an offensive by the government and its allies earlier this year.IRNA reported in June that five members of the so-called Fatemiyoun Brigade had been killed in Syria while defending a Shi'ite shrine near Damascus and fighting Islamic State.

IRAQI FIGHTERS Several thousand Shi'ite Iraqi militiamen were mobilized to fight on the government's side but many of them returned to Iraq with the expansion of Islamic State requiring their redeployment back home.



(Reporting by Sylvia Westall, editing by Peter Millership)


al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2015 part 4-1-syria-6

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