alpari market commentary final

8/14/2019 Alpari Market Commentary Final

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AAJEEVIKAAajeevika - National Rural Livelihoods Mission (NRLM) was launched by the Ministry of RuralDevelopment (MoRD), Government of India in June 2 !!" #ided in part throu$h investment support bythe %orld &an', the Mission aims at creatin$ efficient and effective institutional platforms of the ruralpoor enablin$ them to increase household income throu$h sustainable livelihood enhancements andimproved access to financial services"

R M has set out with an a$enda to cover * +rore & households, across - districts, - bloc's,2". la'h Gram anchayats and - la'h villa$es in the country throu$h self/mana$ed 0elf 1elp Groups(01Gs) and federated institutions and support them for livelihoods collectives in a period of /! years"In addition, the poor would be facilitated to achieve increased access to their ri$hts, entitlements andpublic services, diversified ris' and better social indicators of empowerment" R M believes inharnessin$ the innate capabilities of the poor and complements them with capacities (information,'nowled$e, s'ills, tools, finance and collectivi3ation) to participate in the $rowin$ economy of thecountry"for reducin$ poverty by enablin$ the poor households to access $ainful self/employment and s'illed wa$e employment opportunities includin$ covera$e ofvulnerable sections of the society includin$ 0+s405s, women, minorities and personswith disabilities

radhan Mantri Gram 0ada' 6o7ana8

5he radhan Mantri Gram 0ada' 6o7anaor MG06 is a nationwide plan in India toprovide $ood all/weather road connectivity to unconnected villa$es"

5his important scheme was the brainchild of the then rime Minister 9f India 0hri#tal &ihari :a7payee" 5his scheme has chan$ed the lifestyle of rural India as theynow have all season metalled roads" 5he D#/&J Government led by 0hri :a7payee$ave utmost importance to infrastructure development and this scheme, MG06 isone amon$ them"

It is under the authority of the Ministry of Rural Development and was be$un on 2.December 2 ";!< It is fully funded by the central $overnment"

5he $oal was to provide roads to all villa$es (!) with a population of ! personsand above by 2 =, (2) with a population of . persons and above by 2 *, (=) inhill states, tribal and desert area villa$es with a population of . persons andabove by 2 =, and (>) in hill states, tribal and desert area villa$es with apopulation of 2. persons and above by 2 *";2. Ftosave succeedin$ $enerations from the scour$e of war and to reaffirm human ri$htsF"

5he tries to $et co/operation between countries to achieve international peace"

It also tries to ensure that human ri$hts and freedom from discrimination and abuseare $iven to all peoples and nations throu$h a system of international 7ustice" It triesto help poorer countries develop throu$h its specialist a$encies"

5he 0ecretary General of the

5he head of the is the 0ecretary General (0G), always appointed from a non/ali$ned (neutral) country" 5he 7ob of the 0ecretary General (0G) is to carry out thedecisions of the 0ecurity +ouncil" 1e also spends a $reat deal of time meetin$ worldleaders to try to solve problems before they turn into wars" 5he present 0G is &ani/Moon from the Republic of (0outh) orea" #lthou$h the has permanenta$encies such as the %orld 1ealth 9r$anisation (%19) and the Bood and#$riculture 9r$anisation (B#9) it does not have an army or police force" 5he canonly ta'e military action if member countries supply forces"

General #ssembly, nited ations 1eadHuarters


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General #ssembly, nited ations 1eadHuarters

5he General #ssembly of the

5he General #ssembly consists of every member country, each with one vote" 5he#ssembly only meets for three months of each year thou$h e@tra meetin$s can becalled if reHuested by a ma7ority of countries or by the 0ecurity +ouncil" 5hesmallest countries on the General #ssembly have the same votin$ power as thebi$$est, such as the 0#" &ecause of this, the powers of the General #ssembly arelimited" Important decisions need a two/thirds ma7ority" %hen these decisions arepassed they are 'nown as FresolutionsF" 1owever these are really onlyrecommendations and are often i$nored" 9ften resolutions are not passed becauseof political disa$reements between countries"

9ften one of the more powerful countries will persuade the #ssembly to pass aResolution bac'in$ it or condemnin$ its opponent" 5he 0# did this when IraHinvaded uwait" 1owever the 0# has often bloc'ed resolutions that criticised Israelbecause the 0# is an ally of Israel"

5he 0ecurity +ouncil

5he really important part of the , where decisions about peace'eepin$ are ta'en,

is the 0ecurity +ouncil" It has fifteen members of which the most important are thefive permanent members8 0#, Russia, , Brance and +hina" 5he other ten placesare chan$ed every two years to allow the less powerful countries some say" Aach ofthe F&i$ BiveF has a veto (which means FI forbidF)" 5he veto was often used durin$the +old %ar by the 00R or the 0# to bloc' a policy they did not li'e"

Bundin$ the

Member countries of the are supposed to pay contributions accordin$ to theirsi3e" Most are not up to date with their payments" 5he 0# is the lar$est sin$lecontributor to the cost of the thou$h in recent years it has refused to pay itscontribution in full as #mericaFs leaders thin' the wastes money and oftencriticises 0 forei$n policy" 1owever, since the new 0ecretary General has beentryin$ to ma'e the more efficient and has cut bac' on the 2., staff aroundthe world, the 0 has a$reed to pay its share in full" 1owever, nearly K2 billion usedto pay for peace'eepin$ mission remains unpaid by several members"


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5he cost of the $rowin$ number of peace'eepin$ operations is increasin$ everyyear but it is far cheaper than war" 5here are nearly ! staff operatin$around the $lobe includin$ more than 2 troops, !> police and = military observers" 5he approved peace'eepin$ bud$et for 2 ! /!! was nearlyK*"2 billion / this amount has risen sharply since 2 however it represents less

than !C of $lobal military spendin$" 5he five permanent members of the 0ecurity+ouncil pay about - C of peace'eepin$ costs" 5he 0# should pay half of this"

Reformin$ the

5he 0ecurity +ouncil is not representative of the world today and has been a topicdebated in the since early ! s" It is dominated by the 0#, the worldFssuperpower, which has the military power to ta'e action anywhere in the world ofits own accord" 5he 2 = invasion of IraH was opposed by many members"Germany, Japan and India now have stron$ claims to be permanent members of the0ecurity +ouncil as they are some of the stron$est economies and fastest $rowin$populations in the world" 0ome have ar$ued that the current ma'e up does notreflect the world of today" 0u$$estions have included a seat in the 0ecurity +ouncilto represent re$ional alliances such as the Auropean nion or #frican nion"nsurprisin$ly, permanent members are not 'een to see their current powersdiluted in any way"

5he 0ecretary General has also proposed a permanent 0tandby Borce to which eachmember country would send one battalion of troops" 5his force would be able toreact to emer$encies more Huic'ly" It could also be sent to areas to stop fi$htin$when it seems li'ely to start" 5he force could also protect humanitarianoperations" 1owever, many countries are reluctant to lose control over their forces"It would also cost member countries money if they still had to pay the soldiersFwa$es"

5he priorities of the current 0ecretary General are8

peace and security

human ri$hts

$lobal health

climate chan$e


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disarmament

combatin$ the financial crisis and world poverty

peace'eepin$

5he success of peace'eepin$ often depends on the attitude of the mostpowerful countries, especially the 0#"

&efore the can try to solve a conflict, the 0ecurity +ouncil must a$ree a policy" Ithas a number of options8

send ne$otiators or observers to the country

impose sanctions

send a peace'eepin$ force

a$ree military intervention

0endin$ ne$otiators or observers

5his is the most li'ely policy" 1owever, as the has no weapons, it can onlyfunction if both sides in a conflict $enuinely want a settlement" 5he has beenpresent in the Middle Aast for years but the #rab/Israeli dispute is still unresolved"

5here are more than 2 military observers active throu$hout the world"

Imposin$ sanctions

5he can also impose sanctions to try to force a country to a$ree to Resolutions" %hen IraH was not prepared to allow inspectors to chec' its chemical,biolo$ical and nuclear weapons, sanctions were imposed preventin$ it from sellin$its oil" 5he problem with sanctions is that they can be easily avoided and ta'e a lon$time to wor'" In the case of IraH, they hurt ordinary people who were not able toobtain food and medical supplies while 0addam 1ussein and his forces were notreally affected" 0anctions have been imposed recently on Iran over theirdevelopment of nuclear weapons however it has lon$ been felt that sanctions fromor$anisations li'e the A are more severe than those imposed by the "


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# Brench soldier from the on mine clearin$ patrol in ebanon

# Brench soldier from the on mine clearin$ patrol in ebanon

eace'eepin$

# peace'eepin$ force may be sent to FpoliceF a peace settlement" Member countriesmust a$ree to supply forces and their eHuipment but this may be difficult becausepolitical leaders donFt want to send their forces into dan$er areas where they haveno political or trade interests" 5his has been the case in #frica" If serious fi$htin$brea's out, such as in Rwanda, the 9 force is usually too small to stop it andwithdraws" AHually the may not have the money to send and eHuip forces unlessa powerful country li'e the 0# $ets involved"

In some situations, certain forces are not acceptable as they are not seen asneutral" 5his has often ruled out 0# or Russia from intervenin$ when Israel and her#rab nei$hbours have been in conflict" 5his is why neutral countries such as Ireland,+anada, India and ew Lealand are often as'ed to send forces to trouble FspotsF"0ome developin$ countriesF forces are so badly trained and eHuipped that they arenot able to help effectively, such as when &an$ladeshi troops were sent to &osnia"

Military intervention

9n very rare occasions the has a$reed to intervene directly, usin$ lar$e/scalemilitary force" 5his has become more common since the end of the +old %ar" #sRussia is more interested in economic help from the %est, it no lon$er vetoes#merican policies" #s a result, the 0# is now able to dominate the 0ecurity +ouncil"%hen IraH invaded uwait, the 0# obtained approval for F9peration Desert0tormF in which a 0 led coalition forced the IraHi army to leave uwait"

one of the powerful countries on the 0ecurity +ouncil has allowed a force tointervene on their territory" +hina would veto any attempt to intervene in 5ibetRussia would veto intervention in +hechnya and the has made it plain it does notsee a role for the in orthern Ireland"


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5he orth #tlantic 5reaty 9r$anisation ( #59)

#ims

5he orth #tlantic 5reaty 9r$anisation ( #59) was set up after %orld %ar II todefend %estern Aurope a$ainst the threat of attac' from what was then the+ommunist 00R" Recently, since the 00R has bro'en up, that threat has reduced$reatly" #59 still $uarantees to help to defend its members but has also becomeinvolved in peace'eepin$ operations notably in Aastern Aurope" 5he #59 alliance$uarantees that an attac' on any one of its members will immediately brin$ all therest in to help" 5his collective security a$reement is 'nown as #rticle ."

Membership of #59

2 mar'ed the - th #nniversary of #59" #59 operates in a very different wayto the " It has fewer members and they are far less li'ely to disa$ree than members" 1owever, lon$/runnin$ disputes do e@ist between members such as thatbetween 5ur'ey and Greece over the island of +yprus" 5he lon$/standin$ #59members are8 0#, +anada, &ritain, Brance, Iceland, orway, Denmar', 1olland,&el$ium, u@embour$, Italy, 0pain, ortu$al, Greece, 5ur'ey and Germany" 5hreeformer %arsaw act countries, oland, 1un$ary and the +3ech Republic, 7oined#59 in ! " 0even Aast Auropean countries 7oined in 2 >, 0lova'ia, 0lovenia,Astonia, Romania, &ul$aria, atvia and ithuania" 5he latest members #lbania and+roatia 7oined in 2 / this brin$s the total number of #59 members to 2 " 5hereare other countries who have already be$un ne$otiations to 7oin #59 these includeGeor$ia and the 'raine, both formerly of the 00R as well as Montene$ro whohave been invited to 7oin the Membership #ction lan (M# )" 5his shows acontinuation of #59 s open door policy" Decisions on future membership are ta'enby the orth #tlantic +ouncil"

In practice, the #59 alliance relies on the military power of the 0#" &ecause of itsmilitary stren$th, it is now the only country in the world powerful enou$h tointervene almost anywhere, as it has the best resources such as $iant transportplanes and aircraft carriers" 5he 0#, &ritain and Brance all have nuclear weapons"1owever, these are for deterrent purposes only they are not useful inpeace'eepin$"

ato 1eadHuarters in &russels


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ato 1eadHuarters in &russels

5he 0tructure of #59

#59 has a permanent staff headed by a 0ecretary General" 1e acts as thespo'esperson for #59 and chairs its committees such as the orth #tlantic +ouncil( #+) and uclear lannin$ Group" 5he #+ meets re$ularly and is the maindecision/ma'in$ body within #59" 0ince the main purpose of #59 is the defenceof its members, many of the decisions are left to senior military officers" 1owever,when really important decisions are bein$ made, heads of $overnment such as the0 resident and the rime Minister will attend a meetin$ of the #59 +ouncil"

5he role of #59

ow that the +old %ar is over and Russia is loo'in$ to the west for economic helpsome ar$ue that #59 is not needed" 9thers ar$ue that the world is as unstable asever and that #59 is essential but that its role has to adapt" #lready #59 hasfewer tan's and troops than it did durin$ the +old %ar as it is most unli'ely to haveto fi$ht a bi$ tan' battle in central Aurope" #59 forces now concentrate onmobility, usin$ helicopters to $et hi$hly trained forces to trouble spots fast" 5he#59 Reponse Borce ( RB) is made up a != stron$ force that has the capabilityto react Huic'ly and be deployed to trouble spots anywhere in the world in times ofcrisis"

5he $lobal importance of #59

eace'eepin$

Bor years #59 never fired a shot e@cept in trainin$" 5hat chan$ed in the former 6u$oslavia first in &osnia, then in osovo and the former 6u$oslav Republic ofMacedonia (B6R9M)" #59 forces too' over from the to impose peacesettlements" osovo continues to have a #59 presence to ensure security andstability in the area"

#59 has some advanta$es in comparison to the 9" It has some of the besteHuipped and trained forces in the world" 5here is also a command structure that allof the #59 countries are familiar with" 1owever, #59 traditionally only operatedwithin the boundaries of its members states" 5he military operation to force IraH outof uwait in ! ! could not be called a #59 operation as it was Fout of areaF" Infuture, #59 may operate throu$hout the world as a peace'eepin$ force"


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#59 and the F%ar on 5errorismF

%hen terrorists attac'ed the %orld 5rade +entre in ew 6or' +ity in 0eptember2 !, the 0# declared itself under attac' and demanded that other #59members should support its F%ar on 5errorismF" #lthou$h all the other memberstates have promised to support this under #rticle . of the #59 treaty, they didnot all send forces to 7oin in the operation a$ainst #l Naeda bases in #f$hanistan"1owever, as the 0# is so powerful, it does not actually need help from other #59members" 5his was only as'ed for as a $esture to show that the 0 was not actin$alone" 5he F+oalition #$ainst 5errorismF includes many countries that are not #59members"

Disa$reements within #59

5he 2 = invasion of IraH has recently led to disa$reements amon$ #59 members" 5he 0# and $overnments were convinced military action was essential to force0addam 1ussein to $ive up nuclear and other Fweapons of mass destructionF"Germany and Brance disa$reed" #ll other countries accepted that any action a$ainstIraH had to have bac'in$ and that an e@tra resolution was reHuired" 5he 0and $overnments disa$reed" 5he 0 spends far more on defence than mostAuropean #59 members and is able to use a $reat deal of military power sin$le/handed" &ecause of this, a number of #59 members would prefer to have aAuropean only defence force or$anised throu$h the Auropean nion"

Auro/#tlantic artnership +ouncil (A# +)

5he A# + is a #59 institution aimed at improvin$ relations between #59 (2members) and non/ #59 members (22 countries), . members in total" 5heydiscuss both political and security issues" 5he A# + is part of #59Fs artnership foreace pro$ramme"

and #59 $lobal activities

Middle Aast, #f$hanistan and ersian Gulf

Israel


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5he has made many attempts to brin$ peace to the Middle Aast by sendin$observers and ne$otiators, by passin$ resolutions and sendin$ soldiers to policeceasefires but the has no real power to enforce a peace settlement" 5he 0# hasused its 0ecurity +ouncil veto to support Israel" It has also tried to $et all sides toa$ree to a FroadmapF for peace"

#f$hanistan

5he role of the has been limited to providin$ humanitarian aid 0/led forcesdefeated the 5aliban Government and destroyed #l Naeda bases"

#59 is now involved in #f$hanistan throu$h its leadership of the International0ecurity #ssistance Borce (I0#B)" 5his followed a mandate" 5he I0#B $oal is to

brin$ a representative $overnment, peace and security for the people of this wartorn country" 5he international #59 force assists #f$han authorities to stabiliseand reconstruct the re$ion while providin$ security and trainin$ to #f$han forces"

5his is the first mission outside the Auro/#tlantic area in #59 s history"

1owever, #59 members are not all willin$ to send troops to #f$hanistan or forthem to be involved in dan$erous operations" 5he &ritish force have suffered lar$enumber of casualties in 1elmand rovince, in southern #f$hanistan, while theGerman and others refuse to send their forces" 5his puts more pressure on other#59 members to continue to maintain troop levels" 5he reluctance of many #59$overnments to supply reinforcements for the allianceFs #f$han mission in the faceof an on$oin$ insur$ency in the south has caused some to raise Huestions about#59Fs ability to sustain lar$e/scale operations"

#59 seems to be shapin$ a new role for itself, one of maintainin$ $lobal security"+onfirmation of that was seen when it too' command of the internationalpeace'eepin$ force in #f$hanistan in 2 =" #s the world becomes increasin$lyaware of the $lobal terrorist threat, #59 officials now say the alliance must act tocounter that threat"

In 2 0 resident 9bama announced the 0 would be sendin$ an additional= 0 troops to #f$hanistan brin$in$ the total of 0 troops participatin$ in this


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#59 led mission to 7ust under ! " 1e as'ed fellow #59 members to alsocommit more forces" 1owever, under pressure by 0 voters as the death toll of 0casualities rises, resident 9bama also stated that 0 troops would be$in towithdraw from the area in 2 !!"

In early 2 ! #59/led forces launched a ma7or offensive 'nown as 9perationMoshtara'" 5he aim of this mission is to secure $overnment control of southern1elmand province"#f$hanistan is very dan$erous area as 5aliban forces do not wantto lose control and #59 casualties continue to rise due to the impact of road sidebombs" More than !. deaths from coalition forces since 2 ="

IraH

5he 0ecurity +ouncil bac'ed the use of force when IraH too' over uwait in! !"5he #merican/led 9peration Desert 0torm freed uwait" In 2 =, an#merican4&ritish force invaded IraH to eliminate weapons of mass destruction whichwere said to be a threat to peace" #lthou$h the 0# claimed it already had approval for action a$ainst IraH, many other countries disa$reed and refused topass a new Resolution supportin$ military action" Disputes between Germany,Brance and the 0 over the 2 = invasion of IraH caused one of the worst crises in#59 history"

5he campai$n a$ainst IraH in 2 = was led by the 0# with &ritish support" #coalition of forces from different countries, some of which were #59 membercountries and some were not have been involved in tryin$ to stabilise IraH" 5healliance itself played no part in the invasion althou$h most member countries did"

0ince 2 >, #59 has been involved in trainin$, eHuippin$, and technical assistanceto the IraHi Government and its forces" 5he aim of the mission is to help IraH buildthe capability of its Government to address the security needs of the IraHi people"

5his is coordinated by the 0 led multinational force and is 'nown as 5M/I or #59

5rainin$ Mission / IraH"

&oth the 0 and have withdrawn combat troops from IraH" #lthou$h some 0troops remain in order to continue to train IraHi forces and offer advice ande@pertise"


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#frica

0omalia

5he 0# sent in forces on behalf of the , to stop a civil war" 5hey soon becametar$ets themselves and left" 5he operation was not successful in brin$in$ peace"In contrast many G9s (non/$overnmental or$anisations) remained to provide aid"

Rwanda

In Rwanda a small force tried to 'eep peace between the two main tribes, the1utus and the 5utsis" In ! >, the 1utus attac'ed the 5utsis" %hen the forceleft, ! , s of 5utsis were massacred" 5he ma7or powers such as the 0# refusedto $et involved by sendin$ troops, which left the powerless to stop the 'illin$"

Darfur

Massacres and a hu$e refu$ee problem which many blamed on $roups supportedby the 0udan Government led to calls for the to intervene" 1owever, it was notable to send forces into the re$ion" 5he #frican nion (# ) has been able to carryout some peace'eepin$ and #59 has helped with air transport"

In 2 * the 0ecurity +ouncil approved a 2-, /stron$ peace'eepin$ force to

replace the *, # observer mission stru$$lin$ to protect civilians in 0udanFswestern province of Darfur" i'e any other mission it depends on internationalsupport from members" 5he combined / # peace'eepin$ force will be bettereHuipped and with a mandate to protect civilians and aid wor'ers"

1owever, the resolution is not as stron$ as some 0ecurity +ouncil members wouldhave li'ed as it does not threaten sanctions if 0udan does not comply with it"

DarfurFs four/year conflict has claimed 2 , lives and displaced millions causin$ma7or problems for nei$hbourin$ countries li'e +had" More than !. troopsremain in the area today"

Democratic Republic of +on$o (DR+)


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5he peace'eepin$ mission in the DR+ is its bi$$est and most e@pensive in theworld with over 2 personnel" 5he forces are tryin$ to secure an end tothe war and prevent further outbrea's of fi$htin$ amon$ $overnment troops, militia$roups, rebel forces as well as troops from Rwanda" #ll sides have reportedlycarried out atrocities a$ainst civilians" 5his current crisis dates bac' to the ! >

conflict in Rwanda involvin$ two ethnic $roups / the 1utus and the 5utsis" %hen a 5utsi re$ime too' control in Rwanda the 1utus fled to nearby DR+"

5he on$oin$ conflict has lead to a humanitarian disaster with hundreds ofthousands now displaced people in nei$hbourin$ countries" Many refu$ees aresufferin$ from starvation and disease in refu$ees camps set up by 1+R"

5he force has operated under a +hapter 0even mandate, the stron$est availablefor a peace'eepin$ operation E allowin$ it to protect both the civilian population andthemselves" Givin$ soldiers the ri$ht to use Oall necessary means , e$ lethalforce" forces have been ta'in$ control of several towns in the re$ion" 5here isconcern that the conflict will spread and involve nei$hbourin$ countries" 0ome havecalled for the A to send in forces into the area"

Bormer 6u$oslavia

&osnia

In the &osnian civil war, the 0erbs used Pethnic cleansin$P to terrify people intoleavin$ their villa$es"

sanctions did not stop the fi$htin$" 5he sent a force of soldiers (mostly&ritish or Brench) to protect aid convoys" officials were reluctant to let themopen fire" 5housands of Muslims were massacred"

9peratin$ as #59 rather than the , the 0#, and Brance chan$ed thesituation usin$ military force" 5housands of #59 troops were sent to 'eep thepeace in &osnia"

5oday peace'eepin$ forces remain and are or$anised by the A , 'nown as A B9R"


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osovo

#59 has been leadin$ a peace'eepin$ operation in osovo since ! in supportof international efforts to build peace and stability in the re$ion and maintain a safeand secure environment for all citi3ens, re$ardless of their ethnic ori$in"

#t present, #59/led B9R presence has ! troops in osovo to $uaranteesecurity and stability in what is 'nown as a deterrent presence with hopes ofcontinuin$ to $radually reduce troops"

osovo declared itself independent in 2 and followin$ this the 0ecurity+ouncil passed a resolution that a #59 led force would remain in the area"

#frican nion

%as founded in 2 2 and see's to support both political and economic inte$rationamon$ its .= member states, a sort of nited 0tates of #frica approach" Its aimsinclude to further development, eradicate poverty and help brin$ #frica into the$lobal economy however, it has faced criticism of bein$ not ma'in$ much pro$ressin these areas"

#59 s support to the #frican nion started in 2 . with assistance to the #Mission in 0udan" 5his was the #lliance s first mission on the #frican continent andrepresents a landmar' decision by the orth #tlantic +ouncil" 0ince then, #59 hascommitted to support other # missions and ob7ectives includin$ supportin$ the #in 0omalia and in the Darfur" #59 has supported the #0B (#frican 0tandby Borce)offerin$ operational support and advice"

5a'en out of conte@t, the numbers are sta$$erin$" 5he 0 has a total debt pile ofalmost K!* trillion (Q! "- trillion), which is e@pected to rise to almost K2=tn in thene@t five years"

&ut how does that compare with other ma7or economies


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Japan is not far behind, with current debts totallin$ K!!".tn" &y any standards,these are bi$, bi$ numbers"

#nd these countries are not alone / almost every ma7or $lobal economy has debts ofmore than a trillion dollars, accordin$ to the International Monetary Bund (IMB)"

5otal $overnment debt

&ut conte@t is needed / after all, debt is not necessarily a problem if you have theincome to cover it"

5hat is why the two most common measures used to $au$e a nationFs indebtednessare8

total debt, as e@pressed as a percenta$e of total economic output (GD )

bud$et deficit, the amount by which a $overnmentFs e@penses e@ceed its income,e@pressed as a percenta$e of GD

0ome $overnments actually run a surplus / in other words their income e@ceedstheir e@penses" Runnin$ a surplus is one of the best ways to reduce overall levels ofdebt"

oo'in$ at debt/to/GD tells us that total 0 debt is rou$hly eHuivalent to its annualeconomic output" It is by far the lar$est economy in the world, and has the lar$estdebt pile"

Japan is the worldFs third lar$est economy, but its hu$e pile of debt is more thandouble its GD " 5he only other country whose debts outstrip economic output isItaly, althou$h a number of others come close / namely the , Brance and +anada"

Aven Germany, traditionally seen as fiscally responsible, has a debt/to/GD ratio ofmore than C"


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Government debt as C of GD

Much of this debt has been accumulated over the lon$ term, but the numbers haveroc'eted in recent years as $overnments have stru$$led to cope with the 2financial crisis and the subseHuent recessions that have rava$ed almost all ma7oreconomies" &an'in$ bailouts, economic stimulus measures and fallin$ ta@ revenueshave all forced $overnments to borrow more"

Bor e@ample, in 2 *, the Fs debt pile was 7ust >>C of GD compared with Clast year" 5his reflects in part the countryFs lar$e financial sector relative to itsoverall economy" 5he 0Fs debt/to/GD ratio in 2 * was ->C, the same as Branceand Germany"

&y contrast, the debt/to/GD ratio in +hina and India, which have seen economicslowdowns but no recession, has not moved si$nificantly over the past five years,nor is it set to deteriorate in the ne@t five" Indeed in the case of +hina, it is set to fallsi$nificantly"

5he picture elsewhere is less encoura$in$" 5he IMB estimates that Germany aside,those countries with hi$h levels of indebtedness will stru$$le to reduce debt levels

in the comin$ years"

5he , where the $overnment has made much of reducin$ debt levels, will actuallysee the debt ratio ed$e towards ! C of GD "

Government deficits

9ne reason for this is $overnmentsF inability to move from an annual deficit to a

surplus" In other words, an inability to live within their means"

5he IMB estimates that only #ustralia and +hina of the worldFs !2 lar$est economieswill move into surplus by 2 ! , while Germany will increase its surplus further"Russia, it thin's, will move from a surplus to a deficit"


18/30

1owever, most ma7or economies are e@pected to ma'e $ood pro$ress in reducin$their deficits"

# chronolo$y of 'ey events8

India has been home to several ancient civilisations and empires, some datin$ bac'to more than 2, &+" +ulture and reli$ions have flourished over the millennia, andforei$n influence has ebbed and flowed"

! . / India comes under direct rule of the &ritish crown after failed Indian mutiny"

! . / Indian ational +on$ress founded as forum for emer$in$ nationalist feelin$"

+ontinue readin$ the main story

Mahatma Gandhi

Mahatma Gandhi steered India to independence

Mahatma GandhiFs fadin$ dream

&&+ / 1istory / 1istoric Bi$ures Mohandas Gandhi (! - / ! > )

! 2 /22 / ationalist fi$urehead Mahatma Gandhi launches anti/&ritish civildisobedience campai$n"

! >2/>= / +on$ress launches PNuit IndiaP movement"

! >* / And of &ritish rule and partition of sub/continent into mainly 1indu India andMuslim/ma7ority state of a'istan"


19/30

ewly independent

! >*/> / 1undreds of thousands die in widespread communal bloodshed afterpartition"

! > / Mahatma Gandhi assassinated by 1indu e@tremist"

! > / %ar with a'istan over disputed territory of ashmir"

! .!/.2 / +on$ress arty wins first $eneral elections under leadership of Jawaharlal

ehru"

Re$ional tensions

! -2 / India loses brief border war with +hina"

! -> / Death of rime Minister Jawaharlal ehru"

5rains, 1yderabad

5he rail networ' covers the len$th and breadth of India

! -. / 0econd war with a'istan over ashmir"

! -- / ehruFs dau$hter Indira Gandhi becomes prime minister"

! *! / 5hird war with a'istan over creation of &an$ladesh, formerly Aast a'istan"

! *! / 5wenty/year treaty of friendship si$ned with 0oviet nion"


20/30

! *> / India e@plodes first nuclear device in under$round test"

Democratic strains

! *. / Indira Gandhi declares state of emer$ency after bein$ found $uilty ofelectoral malpractice"

! *./! ** / early !, political opponents imprisoned and pro$ramme ofcompulsory birth control introduced"

! ** / Indira GandhiFs +on$ress arty loses $eneral elections"

! / Indira Gandhi returns to power headin$ +on$ress party splinter $roup,+on$ress (Indira)"

! > / 5roops storm Golden 5emple / 0i'hsF most holy shrine / to flush out 0i'hmilitants pressin$ for self/rule"

Indira Gandhi (! *! picture)

Indira Gandhi served four terms as prime minister

! > / Indira Gandhi assassinated by 0i'h body$uards, followin$ which her son,Ra7iv, ta'es over"

! > December / Gas lea' at nion +arbide pesticides plant in &hopal" 5housandsare 'illed immediately, many more subseHuently die or are left disabled"

! * / India deploys troops for peace'eepin$ operation in 0ri an'aFs ethnicconflict"

! / Ballin$ public support leads to +on$ress defeat in $eneral election"


21/30

! / Indian troops withdrawn from 0ri an'a"

! / Muslim separatist $roups be$in campai$n of violence in ashmir"

! ! / Ra7iv Gandhi assassinated by suicide bomber sympathetic to 0ri an'aFs 5amil 5i$ers"

! ! / Aconomic reform pro$ramme be$un by rime Minister : arasimha Rao"

! 2 / 1indu e@tremists demolish mosHue in #yodhya, tri$$erin$ widespread 1indu/Muslim violence"

&J to the fore

! - / +on$ress suffers worst ever electoral defeat as 1indu nationalist &Jemer$es as lar$est sin$le party"

! / &J forms coalition $overnment under rime Minister #tal &ehari :a7payee"

Indian police $uard of honour, near 0rina$ar, ashmir

5ensions over ashmir brou$ht India and a'istan to war

! / India carries out nuclear tests, leadin$ to widespread internationalcondemnation"

! Bebruary / :a7payee ma'es historic bus trip to a'istan to meet remierawa3 0harif and to si$n bilateral ahore peace declaration"

! May / 5ension in ashmir leads to brief war with a'istan/bac'ed forces in theicy hei$hts around ar$il in Indian/held ashmir"


22/30

! 9ctober / +yclone devastates eastern state of 9rissa, leavin$ at least ! ,dead"

opulation8 ! billion

2 May / India mar's the birth of its billionth citi3en"

2 / 0 resident &ill +linton ma'es a $roundbrea'in$ visit to improve ties"

2 ! January / Massive earthHua'es hit the western state of Gu7arat, leavin$ at

least = , dead"

2 ! #pril / !- Indian and three &an$ladeshi soldiers are 'illed in border clashes"

# hi$h/powered roc'et is launched, propellin$ India into the club of countries able tofire bi$ satellites deep into space"

2 ! July / :a7payee meets a'istani resident erve3 Musharraf in the first summitbetween the two nei$hbours in more than two years" It ends without a brea'throu$hbecause of differences over ashmir"

2 ! 0eptember / 0 lifts sanctions which it imposed a$ainst India and a'istanafter they sta$ed nuclear tests in ! " 5he move is seen as a reward for theirsupport for the 0/led anti/terror campai$n"

ashmir tensions rise

Indian soldier, 0iachen $lacier, amid raised tensions in 2 !

Disputed 0iachen, dubbed the worldFs hi$hest battlefield


23/30

2 ! 9ctober / India fires on a'istani military posts in the heaviest firin$ alon$ thedividin$ line of control in ashmir for almost a year"

2 ! December / 0uicide sHuad attac's parliament in ew Delhi, 'illin$ severalpolice" 5he five $unmen die in the assault"

2 ! December / India imposes sanctions a$ainst a'istan, to force it to ta'e actiona$ainst two ashmir militant $roups blamed for the suicide attac' on parliament"a'istan retaliates with similar sanctions, and bans the $roups in January"

2 ! December / India, a'istan mass troops on common border amid mountin$

fears of a loomin$ war"

2 2 January / India successfully test/fires a nuclear/capable ballistic missile / the#$ni / off its eastern coast"

2 2 Bebruary / Inter/reli$ious bloodshed brea's out after . 1indu pil$rimsreturnin$ from #yodhya are 'illed in a train fire in Godhra, Gu7arat" More than !,people, mainly Muslims, die in subseHuent violence" olice and officials blamed the

fire on a Muslim mob, but a 2 . $overnment investi$ation said it was an accident"In 2 !2 a court convicts =2 people over the aroda atiya riots in #hmedabad"

2 2 May / a'istan test/fires three medium/ran$e surface/to/surface Ghaurimissiles, which are capable of carryin$ nuclear warheads" %ar of words betweenIndian and a'istani leaders intensifies" #ctual war seems imminent"

2 2 June / , 0 ur$e their citi3ens to leave India and a'istan, while maintainin$diplomatic offensive to avert war"

2 2 July / Retired scientist and architect of IndiaFs missile pro$ramme # J #bdulalam is elected president"


24/30

2 = #u$ust / #t least . people are 'illed in two simultaneous bomb blasts in&ombay"

ashmir ceasefire

2 = ovember / India matches a'istanFs declaration of a ashmir ceasefire"

2 = December / India, a'istan a$ree to resume direct air lin's and to allowoverfli$hts"

2 > January / Groundbrea'in$ meetin$ held between $overnment and moderateashmir separatists"

2 > May / 0urprise victory for +on$ress arty in $eneral elections" Manmohan0in$h is sworn in as prime minister"

2 > 0eptember / India, alon$ with &ra3il, Germany and Japan, launches anapplication for a permanent seat on the 0ecurity +ouncil"

2 > ovember / India be$ins to withdraw some of its troops from ashmir"

#sian tsunami

&oatman and Golden 5emple, #mritsar

5he Golden 5emple at #mritsar is a place of pil$rima$e for 0i'h devotees

2 > December / 5housands are 'illed when tidal waves, caused by a powerful

undersea earthHua'e off the Indonesian coast, devastate coastal communities inthe south and in the #ndaman and icobar Islands"

2 . * #pril / &us services, the first in - years, operate between 0rina$ar in Indian/administered ashmir and Mu3affarabad in a'istani/administered ashmir"


25/30

2 . July / More than !, people are 'illed in floods and landslides caused bymonsoon rains in Mumbai (&ombay) and Maharashtra re$ion"

2 . 9ctober / #n earthHua'e, with its epicentre in a'istani/administered ashmir,'ills more than !, people in Indian/administered ashmir"

&ombs 'ill -2 people in Delhi" # little/'nown ashmiri $roup says it is behind theattac's"

2 - Bebruary / IndiaFs lar$est/ever rural 7obs scheme is launched, aimed at liftin$around - million families out of poverty"

uclear deal

2 - March / 0 and India si$n a nuclear a$reement durin$ a visit by 0 residentGeor$e % &ush" 5he 0 $ives India access to civilian nuclear technolo$y while Indiaa$rees to $reater scrutiny for its nuclear pro$ramme"

Indian farmers, Gu7arat

Millions of Indians depend on the farmin$ sector

!> people are 'illed by bomb blasts in the 1indu pil$rima$e city of :aranasi"

2 - May / 0uspected Islamic militants 'ill =. 1indus in the worst attac's in Indian/administered ashmir for several months"

2 - !! July / More than ! people are 'illed in bomb attac's on rush/hour trainsin Mumbai" Investi$ators blame Islamic militants based in a'istan"

2 - 0eptember / A@plosions outside a mosHue in the western town of Male$aon'ill at least =! people"


26/30

2 - ovember / 1u Jintao ma'es the first visit to India by a +hinese president in adecade"

2 - December / 0 resident Geor$e % &ush approves a controversial lawallowin$ India to buy 0 nuclear reactors and fuel for the first time in = years"

5rain attac'

2 * ! Bebruary / - passen$ers, most of them a'istanis, are 'illed by bombblasts and a bla3e on a train travellin$ from ew Delhi to the a'istani city ofahore"

2 * Bebruary / India and a'istan si$n an a$reement aimed at reducin$ the ris' ofaccidental nuclear war"

2 * March / Maoist rebels in +hhattis$arh state 'ill more than . policemen in adawn attac'"

2 * #pril / IndiaFs first commercial space roc'et is launched, carryin$ an Italiansatellite"

2 * May / #t least nine people are 'illed in a bomb e@plosion at the main mosHuein 1yderabad" 0everal others are 'illed in subseHuent riotin$"

2 * May / Government announces its stron$est economic $rowth fi$ures for 2

years / ">C in the year to March"

Birst woman president

2 * July / ratibha atil becomes first woman to be elected president of India"


27/30

2 July / +on$ress/led coalition survives vote of confidence brou$ht after left/win$parties withdraw their support over controversial nuclear cooperation deal with 0"#fter the vote, several left/win$ and re$ional parties form new alliance to oppose$overnment, sayin$ it has been tainted by corruption"

2 July / 0eries of e@plosions 'ills > in #hmedabad, in Gu7arat state" 5he little/'nown $roup Indian Mu7ahideen claims responsibility"

2 9ctober / Bollowin$ approval by the 0 +on$ress, resident Geor$e % &ushsi$ns into law a nuclear deal with India, which ends a three/decade ban on 0nuclear trade with Delhi"

India successfully launches its first mission to the moon, the unmanned lunar probe+handrayaan/!"

Mumbai attac's

5a7 Mahal 1otel on fire, Mumbai 2

5he 2 Mumbai attac's were blamed on a'istani $unmen

2 ovember / early 2 people are 'illed and hundreds in7ured in a series ofco/ordinated attac's by $unmen on the main tourist and business area of IndiaFsfinancial capital Mumbai" India blames militants from a'istan for the attac's anddemands that Islamabad act a$ainst those responsible"

2 December / India announces PpauseP in peace process with a'istan" Indiancric'et team cancels planned tour of a'istan"

2 Bebruary / India and Russia si$n deals worth K* m, accordin$ to whichMoscow will supply uranium to Delhi"

2 May / Resoundin$ $eneral election victory $ives $overnin$ +on$ress/ledalliance of M Manmohan 0in$h an enhanced position in parliament, only !! seatsshort of an absolute ma7ority"


28/30

2 July / a'istani, Indian premiers pled$e to wor' to$ether to fi$ht terrorirrespective of pro$ress on improvin$ broader ties"

# Dehli court rules that homose@ual intercourse between consentin$ adults is notcriminal, overturnin$ a !> /year/old colonial law"

2 December / 5he $overnment says it will allow a new state, 5elan$ana, to becarved out of part of the southern state of #ndhra radesh" :iolent protests for anda$ainst brea' out"

2 ! Bebruary / &omb e@plosion in a restaurant popular with tourists in une, in thewestern state of Maharashtra, 'ills !- people"

2 ! May / 5he solve survivin$ $unman of the 2 Mumbai attac's, #7mal #mirNasab, is convicted of murder, wa$in$ war on India and possessin$ e@plosives"

2 ! June / # court in &hopal sentences ei$ht Indians to two years each in 7ail for

Pdeath by ne$li$enceP over the ! > nion +arbide $as plant lea'" 5housands diedin this, the worldFs worst industrial accident"

#yodha rulin$

2 ! 0eptember / #llahabad 1i$h +ourt rules that disputed holy site of #yodhyashould be divided between 1indus and Muslims the destruction of a mosHue on thesite by 1indu e@tremists in ! 2 led to riotin$ in which about 2, people died"

2 !! March / Results of 2 !! census put IndiaFs population at !"2!bn, an increaseof ! ! million over ten years"

India overta'es +hina to become the worldFs lar$est importer of arms, accordin$ tothe 0toc'holm International eace Research Institute"


29/30

0cientist : 0araswat (2nd from ri$ht) at press conference announcin$ lon$/ran$emissile launch

India tested its lon$/ran$e #$ni : missile in 2 !2

2 !! #u$ust / rominent social activist #nna 1a3are sta$es !2/day hun$er stri'e inDelhi in protest at state corruption"

2 !! ovember / Bourteen people includin$ a $overnment minister $o on trial inone of IndiaFs bi$$est ever corruption scandals / a telecoms deal alle$ed to haveinvolved the sellin$ of mobile phone licenses at 'noc'/down prices in e@chan$e forbribes"

2 !2 January / 5hreats by Islamic e@tremists force &ritish author 0ir 0alman Rushdiefirst to cancel his visit to the presti$ious Jaipur iterary Bestival, then to drop a videoappearance" 5he e@tremists ob7ect to his boo' 5he 0atanic :erses, which is bannedin India"

2 !2 May / Manmohan 0in$h pays first official visit to &urma by an Indian primeminister since ! *" 1e si$ns a$reements aimed at providin$ border areadevelopment and an Indian credit line"

2 !2 June / olice in Delhi arrest a 'ey fi$ure alle$edly involved in plannin$ the2 Mumbai attac's" 5hey say #bu 1am3a, also 'nown as 0yed Labiuddin, was thePhandlerP of the ! $unmen"

2 !2 July / ranab Mu'her7ee from the rulin$ +on$ress party is elected as president,comfortably beatin$ his rival "#" 0an$ma"

2 !2 #u$ust / +ourt convicts =2 people over the 2 2 reli$ious riots in Gu7arat andacHuits 2 others" #mon$ those convicted in the aroda atiya 'illin$s in#hmedabad are former state minister Maya odnani and &abu &a7ran$i, a formerleader of the militant 1indu $roup &a7ran$ Dal"


30/30

2 !2 0eptember / 5he %est &en$al left/win$ #ll India 5rinamool +on$resswithdraws from the coalition $overnment over plans to allow forei$n supermar'et$iants to operate in India and cuts to fuel subsidies" rime Minister 0in$h says thesupermar'et move is needed to increase forei$n investment, despite widespreadprotests by shop'eepers"

2 !2 ovember / Mohammad #7mal #mir Nasab, the sole survivin$ $unman of the2 attac's in Mumbai, is e@ecuted in une prison" 5he 0upreme +ourt upheld hisdeath sentence in #u$ust"

2 != Bebruary / 5wo e@plosions in crowded Dilsu'hna$ar area of central 1yderabad'ill !- people" olice suspect the Indian Mu7ahideen Islamist armed $roup"

2 != March / Bive policemen are 'illed in a militant assault in Indian/administeredashmir / the first ma7or attac' in the re$ion in three years"

2 != 0eptember / # court sentences four men to death for the $an$ rape andmurder of a student in Delhi the previous December / a case that led to violentprotests across India and new laws a$ainst rape

alpari market commentary final

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