american express fixed income presentation
TRANSCRIPT
American Express Fixed Income Presentation
May 2008 Update
2
Agenda
AXP Overview
Performance
AXP Capital & Funding Management
3
U.S. Card Services
American Express Company
Full Year ended December 31, 2007Full Year ended December 31, 2007
Company Overview
% ContributionRevenues*: 51%Income** : 45%
International Card Services
Global CommercialServices
Global Network &Merchant Services
Corporate & Other
% ContributionRevenues*: 4%Income**: 10%
% ContributionRevenues*: 16%Income**: 7%
% ContributionRevenues*: 15%Income** : 13%
% ContributionRevenues*: 14%Income** : 25%
Includes:
• Travelers Cheques & Prepaid Services
• Publishing
Global Consumer Group Global Business-to-Business Group
American Express is a leading global payments and travel company
12/31/07 03/31/08
Revenues Net of Interest Expense: $ 27.7B $7.2B
Income from Continuing Ops: $ 4.0B $1.0B
Return on Average Equity: 37.3% 35.9%
founded in 1850.
*Revenues Net of Interest Expense. **Income from Continuing Operations.
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AXP Franchise
American Express is the world’s largest issuer of charge and credit cards as measured by purchase volume. Our focus on the premium market sector enables us to have best in class credit quality.Average spending per card is substantially higher for us versus our competitors.The global diversity of our business includes:
88 million cards in force worldwide,More than 115 card issuing or merchant acquiring arrangements with banks and other institutions,Over 650 American Express network branded products.
American Express is a brand recognized around the world for exceptional service and customer care.American Express is ranked #1 as the “Most Admired” megabank/credit card company according to Fortune magazine’s 2008 annual survey.Our spend-centric model is a significant competitive advantage.
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Spend-Centric Model
High Average Spending
Investmentsin Premium
Value
Premium Economics
Attractive Customer
Base
The AXP spend-centric business model focuses primarily on generating revenues by driving spending on our cards, and secondarily finance charges and fees, allowing us to grow market share in the payments industry.
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Customer Focus Advantages
Affluent global baseMarketing expertiseAcquisition channelsRisk capabilities
Corporate, merchant and GNS relationshipsSales & client management expertiseProcessingReturn on Equity
GlobalConsumer
Global Businessto Business
BrandBrandPremium positioningPremium positioning
Blue Box Advantages:Blue Box Advantages:ServicingServicingInformation managementInformation management
Rewards platformsRewards platformsReengineeringReengineering
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Agenda
AXP Overview
Performance
AXP Capital & Funding Management
8
Performance vs. Targets
ROE Pre-Spin
Revenue net of interest expense2
EPS3
ROE Post-Spin 33-36%5
18-20%
12-15%
≥8%
Target1
1. Targets are on average, over time.2. Please see the revised Statements of Income presentation described in the Company’s 3/30/07 8-K filing.3. Income from continuing operations. EPS growth on a net income basis was 11% in 2005, 1% in 2006, 12% in 2007 and (2%) in Q1’08.4. Reported ROE, which is determined on a trailing 12-month basis using reported net income of $3.7B over average month-end shareholders’ equity
(including discontinued operations) for the twelve months ending 12/31/05 of $14.7B.5. Revised from 28-30%, effective 11/7/06.
2006
12%
20%
35%
2007
10%
16%
37%
2005
10%
19%
25%4
Q1’08
11%
(7%)
36%
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Credit Performance
Metric Trends
Billed Business*
Mgd. Cardmember Loans***
Cards In Force
Avg. Basic Cardmember Spending**
*Billed business represents the dollar amount of charges related to proprietary cards, including cash advances and certain insurance fees, and cards issued under network partnership agreements. **Computed from proprietary card activities only. ***Managed basis includes owned and securitized loans. On a GAAP basis, owned loan growth was 23% in 2005, 31% in 2006, 26% in 2007 and 17% in Q1’08.
2005 2006
16% 16%
9% 10%
10% 7%
15% 17%
2007
15%
11%
8%
22%
15%
Q1’08
15%
10%
6%
19%
14%
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$194
$161$151
$75 $67$47
Citi Bank ofAmerica***
JPMorgan AXP* Cap One Discover
($B)
† ‡
Total Managed Loans
$166
$106
$85
$57
$25 $23
AXP Citi JPMorgan** Bank ofAmerica***
Cap One Discover
($B)
† ‡
Total Billed Business
Growth vs. LY 14% 13% 5% 2% 2% 5%
Growth vs. LY 14% 11% 3% 19% 3% 2%
Q1’08 Worldwide Key Metric Comparison
*On a GAAP basis, owned loans were $50B and increased 17%. **Billed business is charge volume; sales volume growth was 10%. ***US Consumer & Business Card. †US Card. ‡ Fiscal year ends November 30. US Card. Billed business is net sales volume; transaction volume which includes cash advances was $26B and declined 3%.
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Q1’08 Worldwide Key Metric Comparison
5.9%5.7% 5.7%
4.4%4.4%
4.3%
5.3%
Cap One** Bank ofAmerica***
Citi Discover JPMorgan AXP*†
Ex. Interest & Fees
Lending Managed Net Write-off Rates
†*On a GAAP basis, owned net write-off rate and net interest margin were 5.5% and 9.6%, respectively. **US Card. ***Net write-off rate is US Consumer & Business Card and net interest margin is Card Services. † Fiscal year ends November 30. US Card.
11.3%10.2%
9.0%8.3% 8.1% 8.0%
10.0%
Citi Cap One** AXP* JPMorgan Discover Bank ofAmerica***
†
Ex. Interest & Fees
Lending Managed Net Interest Margin
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Worldwide Lending Managed Net Write-off Rates
5.1%5.3% 5.1% 5.3%
3.7%4.0%
5.7%
4.3% 4.4%
US Card Services* International Card Services Total AXP*
Q1'07 Q4'07 Q1'08
*On a GAAP basis, owned US Card Services net write-off rates were 3.7%, 4.3% and 5.5% and owned Total AXP net write-off rates were 4.1%, 4.5% and 5.5% for Q1’07, Q4’07 and Q1’08, respectively. On an owned basis, US Card Services net write-off rates were 3.0% and 3.9% and Total AXP net write-off rates were 3.7% and 4.2% for 2006 and 2007, respectively. On a managed basis, US Card Services net write-off rates were 2.9% and 3.8% and Total AXP net write-off rates were 3.4% and 4.1% for 2006 and 2007, respectively. There are no off-balance sheet International Card Services securitizations; therefore, the net write-off rates for International Card Services are on an owned basis.
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5.9%
3.7%
4.6%4.8%
3.9%3.6%
2.9%
4.8%5.1%5.0%
3.9%3.9%3.4%
5.8%5.7%
4.4% 4.4%4.3%
US CardServices*
Discover** JPMorgan*** Bank ofAmerica****
Citi Cap One
Q1'07 Q4'07 Q1'08
Excluding write-offs of accrued
interest and fees
*On a reported, GAAP basis, owned US Card Services net write-off rates were 3.7%, 4.3% and 5.5% for Q1’07, Q4’07 and Q1’08, respectively. On an owned basis, US Card Services net write-off rates were 3.0% and 3.9% for 2006 and 2007, respectively. On a managed basis, US Card Services net write-off rates were 2.9% and 3.8% for 2006 and 2007, respectively. **Fiscal year ends November 30. ***Includes some international volumes. ****US Consumer & Business Card.
US Lending Managed Net Write-off Rates versus Competitors
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US Lending Managed 30+ Day Past Due Rates versus Competitors
5.5%
3.1%3.1% 3.3%2.8%
5.7%
4.3%3.6%3.5%
3.2%
5.9%
4.0%3.7% 3.9%3.7%
US CardServices*
JPMorgan** Discover*** Cap One Bank ofAmerica****
Q1'07 Q4'07 Q1'08
*On a GAAP basis, owned US Card Services 30+ day past due rates were 2.9%, 3.5% and 4.1% in Q1’07, Q4’07 and Q1’08, respectively. **Includes some international volumes. ***Fiscal year ends November 30. ****US Consumer and Business Card.
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FICO Score Peer Comparison
65.5%
54.2% 54.0%
43.1% 42.0%39.4%
34.5%
AEIT** JPMorgan
AMXCA** Cap One Citi Discover Bank ofAmerica
FICO > 720 (“Super-prime”)
11.7%
16.6%
19.7%
24.1%
27.2%28.7% 29.3%
AEIT AMXCA JPMorgan
Citi Discover Cap One Bank ofAmerica
FICO < 660 (“Sub-prime”)
The following peer comparison is based on US Lending & Charge Trust Data*:
* Trust data as of March 31, 2008 for AMXCA, Discover, and Bank of America, March 28, 2008 for Cap One, February 29, 2008 for AEIT and JP Morgan, and December 30, 2007 for Citi. ** AEIT and AMXCA FICO > 720 (“Super-prime”) category includes 2/3’s of the A/R within the 700 – 759 category.
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Agenda
AXP Overview
Performance
AXP Capital & Funding Management
17
Capital Management
Maintain our debt rating
Meet all statutory, regulatory and tax requirements
Cover our exposures across credit, market and operational risk
Support business growth
Maintain flexibility in our capital plan and structure
We continuously monitor our aggregate and subsidiary capital positions to ensure we:
American Express has historically generated capital well in excess of its needs.
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Liquidity Management
As of March 31, 2008, we have $19 billion of cash and cash equivalents on hand.We estimate that we have access to over $40 billion as part of our contingent liquidity plan that would enable us to meet our daily obligations when access to unsecured funds in the debt capital markets becomes impaired. Sources include, but are not limited to*:
Liquidity investment portfolio ($5B)Undrawn committed bank credit facilities ($9B)Sale of consumer, commercial card, and small business loans and cardmember receivables through our existing securitization programs, and sale of other eligible receivables (~$25B)
We also have substantial flexibility to manage our cash requirements:Share repurchasesDiscretionary expenses and investmentsSubstantial intra-company ability to mobilize liquidity where needed
Liquidity is managed through the breadth of sources of our funding programs, as well as through the quality and liquidity of our funded assets.
*As of March 31, 2008.
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AXP Funding Strategy
Short-Term
Unsecured Term
Term ABS
Category
Our short-term funding programs are used primarily to meet working capital needs.
Our 2008 long-term issuance plan provides for the refinancing of maturities and funding for business growth.
Our goal is to achieve this through a broad and globally diversified mix of maturities, markets, and securities, including issuance from both lending and charge receivables trusts.
We plan to issue large, liquid benchmark issues and to continue to efficiently leverage a multi-issuer strategy.
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American Express Issuance Structure
American ExpressCredit Corporation (Credco)
American ExpressCenturion Bank (AECB)
American ExpressFederal Savings Bank (AEFSB)
American ExpressTravel Related Services (TRS)
American ExpressCompany (AXP)
Total Assets1,2: $32BCredit Ratings3: Aa3/A+/A+Regulated By: OTS
Total Assets1,2: $41BCredit Ratings3: Aa3/A+/A+Regulated By: FDIC & Utah State
Total Assets1: $46BCredit Ratings3: Aa3/A+/A+/A(High)Regulated By: SEC
Total Assets1,2: $147BCredit Ratings3: Aa3/A+/A+/A(High)Regulated By: State Money
Transmitter Laws
Total Assets1,2: $173BCredit Ratings3: A1/A+/A+/A(High)Regulated By: SEC & OTS
1) Total Assets as of December 31, 2007. 2) Includes off-balance sheet loans of $21.5 billion, $21.5 billion, $14.6 billion and $6.8 billion for AXP, TRS, AECB and AEFSB, respectively. 3) Credit Ratings indicated are from Moody’s/S&P/Fitch/DBRS.
American ExpressIssuance Trust (AEIT)
American ExpressCredit Account Master Trust (AMXCA)
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AXP & TRS
American ExpressTravel Related Services (TRS)
American ExpressCompany (AXP)
Leading global payments and travel company
Finances through:
Dividends from subsidiaries
Unsecured long-term notes
Issues charge cards and traveler’s cheques
Sells charge card receivables to Credco
Finances through:
Unsecured medium and long-term notes
Asset backed securities (ABS)
– A.E. Issuance Trust
Credit Ratings*: A1/A+/A+/A(High)
Credit Ratings*: Aa3/A+/A+/A(High)
*Credit Ratings indicated are from Moody’s/S&P/Fitch/DBRS.
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Credco
Funds charge card products
Finances through:
Direct issuance of commercial paper (P-1/A-1/F1)
Unsecured medium and long-term notes
Asset backed securities (ABS)
– A.E. Issuance Trust
Credco and TRS have an agreement whereby Credco purchases receivables from TRS at a discounted rate that will provide earnings of Credco available for fixed charges of at least 1.25 times.
American ExpressCredit Corporation (Credco)
100% owned by TRS
American ExpressTravel Related Services (TRS)
Credit Ratings*: Aa3/A+/A+/A(High)
*Credit Ratings indicated are from Moody’s/S&P/Fitch/DBRS.
2005 2006 2007 1Q 2008
1.41 1.44 1.38 1.37
Credco - Ratio of Earnings to Fixed Charges
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US Banks
Incorporated in 1987
Issues and funds revolving products
Proprietary Lending
Lending on Charge
Finances receivables through:
Deposits
Short-term money market instruments
Unsecured medium and long-term notes
Asset Backed Securities (ABS)
– A.E. Credit Account Master Trust
Incorporated in 2000
Issues and funds revolving products
Strategic Co-Brand
OPEN (Small Business Services)
Finances receivables through:
Deposits
Short-term money market instruments
Unsecured medium and long-term notes
Asset Backed Securities (ABS)
– A.E. Credit Account Master Trust
American ExpressCenturion Bank (AECB)
American ExpressFederal Savings Bank (AEFSB)
American ExpressTravel Related Services (TRS)
100% owned by TRS 100% owned by TRSCredit Ratings*: Aa3/A+/A+ Credit Ratings*: Aa3/A+/A+
*Credit Ratings indicated are from Moody’s/S&P/Fitch.
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41.552.2 52.4
21.4
25.8 28.09.5
7.3 4.95.8
10.5 14.112.0
15.4 14.0
2006 2007 3/31/2008
DepositsCommercial PaperOther Short-termCard ABS*Unsecured Term
$111.2
$90.2
* Card ABS reflects on and off balance sheet funding; on balance sheet ABS funding was $1.2 billion, $3.1 billion and $3.1 billion at 12/31/06, 12/31/07 and 03/31/08, respectively.
$113.4
Outstanding Funding CompositionAs of March 31, 2008$ billions
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Term Managed Debt Maturity Profile
11.815.0
5.73.2
7.5 8.9
4.7
4.8
6.2
2.8
5.9 1.5
2008 2009 2010* 2011 2012** Thereafter
Card ABS
Unsecured
$19.8
$11.9
$16.5
Numbers are presented on a GAAP basis except as follows: *2010 Unsecured Term Debt excludes $1.6 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS debt, which is included in the Card ABS number. **2012 Unsecured Term Debt excludes $1.6 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS debt, which is included in the Card ABS number.
$6.0
$13.4
12/31/07
03/31/08
$10.4
8.6
15.1
5.83.2
7.712.0
2.7
4.8
6.2
5.7
5.9
2.9
2008 2009 2010* 2011 2012** Thereafter
Card ABS
Unsecured
$19.9
$12.0$11.3$8.8
$13.5$14.9
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26.621.5 23.0
5.7
3.58.0
11.0
6.6
2006** 2007*** 2008Forecast†
2008 to Date(4/30)††
Unsecured Card ABSGlobal Term Unsecured & Card ABS Issuance
2008 Projected Managed Funding
*
$30.1 $29.5
$34.0
$ billions
Our 2008 funding plan includes approximately $32 to 36 billion of term debt to:Refinance maturing debtReplace a portion of maturing short-term debt with long-term debtFund business growth
Objectives for 2008 issuance: Lengthen our weighted average maturities Expand non-USD fundingExpand alternative funding sources
*Except as further noted below, unsecured term debt is presented on a “managed” basis. On a GAAP basis, the corresponding amounts are $18.6 billion, $20.9 billion, $27.0 billion and $6.5 billion in 2006, 2007, 2008 Forecast and 2008 YTD Actuals, respectively. **2006 Unsecured Term Debt includes $2.0 billion of remarketed floating rate notes and $6.0 billion of other term debt classified as short-term for GAAP purposes. ***2007 Unsecured Term Debt includes $2.6 billion of other term debt classified as short-term for GAAP purposes and excludes $2.0 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS Debt, which is included in the Card ABS number. †2008 Forecast Unsecured Term Debt excludes $0.9 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS Debt, which is included in the Card ABS number. ††2008 YTD Actuals Unsecured Term Debt excludes $0.9 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS Debt, which is included in the Card ABS number.
$12.3
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American Express ABS Trusts
Trust Established
Vehicle Purpose
Eligible Receivables
Assets currently in trust
Trust Size: - Principal AR*Investor Interest*Seller Interest*
Accounting Treatment
Minimum Sellers Interest
Credit Enhancement
2005
Primary contingent funding capacity
All US charge receivables
Consumer and small business charge
$7.2 billion- $4.1 billion- $3.1 billion
Securitized receivables accounted for on-balance sheet as a secured financingNo gain on sale at issuance
15% of trust principal
7% (Class B is 3% and Class C is 4%)
1996
Ongoing Business as Usual funding and contingent funding capacity
All US lending receivables
Consumer Lending
$33.2 billion- $26.0 billion- $7.2 billion
Securitized receivables accounted for off-balance sheetGain-on-Sale at issuance
7% of outstandings
12% (Class B is 5.5% and Class C is 6.5%)
* As of March 31, 2008; Adjusted for April 2008 issuances and maturities
American ExpressIssuance Trust (AEIT)
American ExpressCredit Account Master Trust (AMXCA)
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AMXCA Performance Trend*Ending Balance & Default Rates
$20 B
$25 B
$30 B
$35 B
$40 B
2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/080%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Principal Balance (ending) Annualized Default Rate, Gross
30+ Days Delinquencies & Past Due Rate
$500 MM
$600 MM
$700 MM
$800 MM
$900 MM
$1000 MM
$1100 MM
2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/082.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.4%
30+ days Delinquent Past Due Rate (Calculated)
Yield
10%
15%
20%
2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08
Monthly Payment Rate
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08
* Source: 10D AMXCA Monthly Filings
29
AEIT Performance Trend*
30+ Days Delinquencies & Past Due Rate
$ MM
$100 MM
$200 MM
$300 MM
$400 MM
2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/080%
1%
2%
3%
4%
30+ Days Delinquent Past Due Rate (Calculated)
Monthly Payment Rate
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08
Yield
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08
* Source: 10D AEIT Monthly Filings
Ending AR & Default Rates
$2 B
$4 B
$6 B
$8 B
$10 B
2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/080%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Ending Receivables Annualized Default Rate, Net
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American Express has a:
Spend-centric model which offers a substantial competitive advantage
Balanced funding strategy in terms of mix, market and maturity
Best in class credit quality portfolio
Robust liquidity risk management program
Brand recognized globally for excellent service and customer care
Key Takeaways
American Express is committed to continued expansion of its debt investor relations program.
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NOTE RELATING TO NON-GAAP FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES
This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial disclosures, including the Company’s pro forma return on equity, as well as information that is reported on a "managed" basis. Managed basis assumes no securitization transactions, i.e., all securitized loans and related income effects are reflected as if they were in the Company's balance sheet and income statement, respectively. Information relating to comparable GAAP financial measures may be found on the relevant slides both attached hereto and located on American Express Company's investor relations website at http://ir.americanexpress.com.
INFORMATION RELATING TO FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
This presentation includes forward looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. The words "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "optimistic," "objective," "intend," "plan," "will", "may," "could," "would," "likely" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they were made. American Express Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements, include, but are not limited to, disruption of financial markets, market capacity and demand for securities offered by the Company, regulatory changes, ability to sell receivables and the performance of receivables previously sold in securitization transactions. A further discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties canbe found in the reports of the Company filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (including its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007).