american public attitudes toward the israeli-palestinian conflict shibley telhami, principal...

American Public Attitudes Toward The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Shibley Telhami, Principal Investigator

A survey Sponsored by the Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the

University of MarylandIn Cooperation with the Program for Public Consultation

Presented at the Center for Middle East Policy

The Brookings InstitutionDecember 5, 2014

Steven Kull, Evan Lewis, Clay Ramsay, and Katayoun Kishi provided assistance. Peyton Craighill provided helpful comments.

This probabilistic Internet survey was fielded by GFK among a nationally representative sample of 1008 Americans, November 14-19, 2014.

Survey Methodology The sample was drawn from a larger standing panel called the KnowledgePanel that is managed by the research company GfK. Though these surveys take place online, this panel is not derived from an “opt-in” by which any online user can volunteer a respondent. Instead, panelists are recruited through a scientific process of selection using two methods: a random selection of residential addresses using the United States Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone or by mail to participate in GfK’s KnowledgePanel. Those who agree to participate but who do not have Internet access are provided a laptop computer and Internet service. A representative sample is then chosen for a specific survey. Once that sample completes a survey, the demographic breakdown of the sample is compared to the US census. Any variations from the census are adjusted by weighting. The study was fielded over November 14-November 19, 2014 with a sample of 1008 American adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%; with the design effect also taken into account, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.4%. Findings were weighted to census data.

Refused

A two-state solution: Israel and a Palestinian state side by side. The Palestinian state would be established on the territories that Israel has occupied since 1967.

A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs 2. A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs are full and equal citizens, covering all of what is now Israel and the Palestinian Territories.

Annexation without equal citizenship: Israel would annex the Palestinian territories, but keep a majority-Jewish state in the expanded territories by restricting citizenship rights of Palestinians.

Maintain occupation of both the territories Israel has captured in 1967 and the Palestinians inhabiting them indefinitely.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

4%

39%

34%

8%

14%

Q1. Please select the one you think the US should support.

Refused





Refused





Refused





Repu

blican

Indep

ende

ntDe

mocra

t

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

4%

33%

27%

15%

21%

4%

32%

42%

6%

15%

5%

48%

36%

4%

7%

Q1. Please select the one you think the US should support.

Refused

A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs are full and equal citizens, covering all of what is now Israel and the Palestinian Territories.



0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

2%

66%

10%

22%

Q2. If the approach you selected turns out over time to be impossible, which of the remaining three would you prefer?

Refused




Refused




Refused




Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

51%

15%

34%

3%

70%

9%

18%

2%

75%

7%

16%

Q2. If the approach you selected turns out over time to be impossible, which of the remaining three would you prefer?

Refused

I favor the Jewishness of Israel more than its democracy. I support the continuation of Israel’s Jewish majority even if it means that Palestinians will not have citizenship and full rights.

I favor Israel’s democracy more than its Jewishness. I support a single democratic state in which Arabs and Jews are equal.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

5%

24%

71%

Q3. Which of the following statements is closer to your view if a two-state solution is not an option

Refused



Refused



Refused


I favor Israel’s democracy more than its Jewishness. I support a single democratic state in which Arabs and Jews are equal.Re

publi

can

Indep

ende

ntDe

mocra

t

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

3%

37%

60%

8%

25%

68%

4%

12%

84%

Q3. Which of the following statements is closer to your view if a two-state solution is not an option

Refused

Lean toward Israel

Lean toward the Palestinians

Lean toward neither side

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

0%

31%

4%

64%

Q4. In general, what role do you want the United States to play in mediating the conflict?

Refused

Lean toward Israel



Lean toward Israel



Refused

Lean toward Israel



Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

1%

51%

2%

46%

24%

3%

73%

0%

17%

6%

77%

Q4. In general, what role do you want the United States to play in mediating the conflict?

Refused

Other

I feel Israel and the US have shared values

I feel that supporting Israel serves the interests of the United States

I feel it's my religious or ethnic duty to support Israel

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

0%

7%

36%

36%

21%

Q5. When you say you want the US to lean toward Israel, which one of the following reasons is closest to your view?

Other




Refused

Other




Other



I feel it's my religious or ethnic duty to support IsraelRe

publica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

5%

30%

38%

27%

1%

16%

33%

37%

12%

9%

54%

28%

10%

Q5. When you say you want the US to lean toward Israel, which one of the following reasons is closest to your view?

Refused

The single most important issue for the US

Among the top three issues

Among the top five issues

Not among the top five issues

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

1%

5%

16%

37%

41%

Q6. Thinking about US interests, how important an issue is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Refused









Refused





Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

1%

5%

21%

38%

35%

5%

11%

30%

54%

1%

6%

14%

40%

40%

Q6. Thinking about US interests, how important an issue is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Refused

The single most important issue




0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1%

4%

9%

18%

69%

Q7. How important is the Israeli-Palestinian issue for you personally?

Refused









Refused





Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1%

5%

11%

21%

62%

4%

7%

15%

74%

1%

3%

8%

16%

72%

Q7. How important is the Israeli-Palestinian issue for you personally?

Refused

I am mostly concerned about Israeli interests

I am mostly concerned about the consequences for American interests

I am mostly concerned about the Palestinian interests

I am mostly concerned about protecting human rights

I am mostly concerned about maintaining international law

I am not concerned about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

1%

14%

24%

1%

31%

8%

21%

Q8. When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would you say







Refused







Refused






I am not concerned about the Palestinian-Israeli conflictRe

publica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

26%

29%

1%

22%

5%

17%

1%

8%

22%

1%

28%

10%

30%

1%

5%

21%

2%

42%

10%

20%

Q8. When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would you say

Refused

At the top of my priorities

Among the top three issues for me



0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

1%

9%

18%

39%

32%

Q9. When you think about your priorities for American foreign policy, how important is maintain-ing international law?

Refused





Refused








Not among the top five issuesRe

publica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

2%

11%

19%

40%

29%

2%

6%

13%

33%

46%

9%

20%

42%

29%

Q9. When you think about your priorities for American foreign policy, how important is maintain-ing international law?

Refused





0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

1%

24%

29%

30%

16%

Q9a. When you think about your priorities for American foreign policy, how important is protect-ing human rights?





Refused





Refused





Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

22%

27%

35%

17%

1%

21%

20%

32%

26%

1%

28%

36%

24%

11%

Q9a. When you think about your priorities for American foreign policy, how important is protecting human rights?

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

15%

2%

30%

46%

6%

Q10. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [UK Prime Minister David Cameron]

DK/Ref

No opinion

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 UnfavorableRe

publica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

1%

14%

40%

42%

3%

20%

1%

14%

58%

7%

14%

2%

30%

45%

9%

Q10. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [UK Prime Minister David Cameron]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

16%

2%

30%

45%

7%

Q11. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [German Chancellor Angela Merkel]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

15%

1%

34%

45%

5%

20%

1%

20%

51%

7%

15%

4%

31%

41%

9%

Q11. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [German Chancellor Angela Merkel]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

12%

2%

33%

37%

15%

Q12. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 UnfavorableRe

publica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

11%

2%

49%

30%

9%

16%

2%

21%

46%

14%

12%

3%

25%

38%

22%

Q12. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

7%

3%

5%

26%

58%

Q13. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [Russian Pres-ident Vladimir Putin]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

Repu

blican

Inde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

6%

2%

6%

18%

67%

12%

3%

7%

43%

34%

6%

4%

3%

25%

61%

Q13. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [Russian President Vladimir Putin]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

20%

2%

6%

53%

19%

Q14. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [The new Egyp-tian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 UnfavorableRe

publica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

20%

1%

6%

54%

20%

25%

2%

5%

57%

11%

17%

4%

6%

51%

22%

Q14. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [The new Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

17%

2%

6%

45%

31%

Q15. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas]

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

No opinion

DK/Ref

6-10 Favorable

5 Neither

0-5 Unfavorable

Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

16%

1%

4%

36%

44%

20%

3%

5%

54%

18%

15%

3%

8%

48%

26%

Q15. I would like you to give your opinion of the following six leaders on a scale of 0-10: [Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas]

Refused

Vote in favor of endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state

Vote against endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state (including using America’s veto power to prevent such an endorsement)

Abstain from voting

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

3%

25%

27%

45%

Q16. If the Palestinians proceed with their plan, what do you think the US should do as a member of the UN Security Council?

Refused



Abstain from voting

Refused



Abstain from voting

Refused



Abstain from voting

Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

2%

19%

46%

33%

3%

16%

16%

65%

3%

36%

15%

46%

Q16. If the Palestinians proceed with their plan, what do you think the US should do as a member of the UN Security Council?

Refused

Do nothing

Limit US opposition to words, but take no other action

Impose some economic sanctions, either through the United Nations or unilaterally

Take more serious action

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

2%

27%

34%

28%

11%

Q17. The Israeli government has continued to build settlements arguing that they have the right to do so, or that these are not obstacles to peace. How do you believe the US should react to new settle-

ments?

Refused

Do nothing




Refused

Do nothing




Refused

Do nothing




Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

2%

33%

33%

24%

8%

2%

39%

28%

21%

10%

1%

14%

37%

34%

13%

Q17. The Israeli government has continued to build settlements arguing that they have the right to do so, or that these are not obstacles to peace. How do you believe the US should react to new

settlements?

Refused

All right to build

Should not build

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

4%

34%

63%

Q18. Do you think it is all right for Israel to build settlements in these territories, or do you think they should not?

Refused

All right to build

Should not build

Refused

All right to build

Should not build

Refused

All right to build

Should not build

Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00%

3%

46%

51%

8%

31%

62%

2%

23%

75%

Q18. Do you think it is all right for Israel to build settlements in these territories, or do you think they should not?

Refused

The escalation of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, especially in Jerusalem, is likely to be used by ISIS to draw more support among Muslims worldwide and to focus more attention on confronting Israel and the US.

Palestinian-Israeli violence will not affect either the support for ISIS or its strategies. Its aims are independent of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and it’s unlikely to draw more supporters because of it.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

6%

64%

30%

Q19. Which one of the following statements is closest to your view?

Refused



Refused



Refused



Repu

blican

Indep

ende

ntDe

mocra

t

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

4%

71%

25%

7%

60%

33%

7%

60%

33%

Q19. Which one of the following statements is closest to your view?

Refused

The rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq

The instability in Libya

Iranian behavior in general

The violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

2%

70%

3%

12%

13%

Q20. Of the challenges facing the United States in the Middle East, which of the following do you be-lieve threatens American interests the most?

Refused





Refused





Refused





Repu

blica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1%

71%

1%

15%

11%

3%

67%

3%

13%

14%

3%

70%

6%

9%

13%

Q20. Of the challenges facing the United States in the Middle East, which of the following do you be-lieve threatens American interests the most?

Refused

President Obama

Republicans in Congress

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

3%

45%

52%

Q21. When it comes to policy toward the Arab-Israeli conflict, whom do you trust more?

Refused

President Obama


Refused

President Obama


Refused

President Obama

Republicans in CongressRe

publica

nInde

pend

ent

Democ

rat

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2%

8%

91%

8%

43%

49%

2%

80%

18%

Q21. When it comes to policy toward the Arab-Israeli conflict, whom do you trust more?

american public attitudes toward the israeli-palestinian conflict shibley telhami, principal...

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