ammonia fuel safety - nh3 fuel association · 2019-02-15 · ammonia fuel safety trevor brown, cfa...
TRANSCRIPT
AmmoniaFuelSafetyTrevorBrown,CFA
AmmoniaIndustry.comAmmoniaEnergy.org
AIChEAnnualMee8ng,TopicalConference:NH3Energy+
Minneapolis,MN–November1,2017
AmmoniaIndustry.com
EXISTING
DONE
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
POSSIBLE
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
AmmoniaCapacityinNorthAmerica:5-YearProjecSon,November2017Metrictonsofammoniaperyear.Source:hIps://ammoniaindustry.comasof10/31/2017
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
GlobalAmmoniaProducSon,1947-2014Units:metrictonsofammonia.Source:USGeologicalSurvey(1947-2014)/AmmoniaIndustry.com,May2017
Netherlands
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
GlobalAmmoniaProducSon,1947-2014Units:metrictonsofammonia.Source:USGeologicalSurvey(1947-2014)/AmmoniaIndustry.com,May2017
Netherlands Australia
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
GlobalAmmoniaProducSon,1947-2014Units:metrictonsofammonia.Source:USGeologicalSurvey(1947-2014)/AmmoniaIndustry.com,May2017
Netherlands Australia China
0
25,000,000
50,000,000
75,000,000
100,000,000
125,000,000
150,000,000
175,000,000
200,000,000
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
GlobalAmmoniaProducSon,1947-2014Units:metrictonsofammonia.Source:USGeologicalSurvey(1947-2014)/AmmoniaIndustry.com,May2017
WorldTOTAL China Netherlands Australia
1995–2014:CAGR2.0%
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046
GlobalAmmoniaProducSon,forecastto2050@2%compoundgrowthUnits:metrictonsofammonia.Source:USGeologicalSurvey(1947-2014)/AmmoniaIndustry.com,May2017
WorldTOTAL China Netherlands Australia
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046
GlobalAmmoniaProducSon,forecastto2050@exportstrengthUnits:metrictonsofammonia.Source:USGeologicalSurvey(1947-2014)/AmmoniaIndustry.com,May2017
WorldTOTAL China Netherlands Australia
Australia:proposedproject,renewableammoniaforexport:• 500GWsolarpower,in10,000km2(area=20%ofthePilbara)• 12MWhpermetrictonammonia• 1,000,000toncapacity…PERDAY.Source:JeffConnolly,CEOSiemensPacific,hIps://ammoniaindustry.com/australian-solar-ammonia-exports-to-germany/
30years,8.5%growth 20yrs,2.0%
30yrs,4.25% 8.5%
VicePresidentMahamuduBawumiavisitedthesiteoftheaccidentearlySundaywherehepledgedthatthegovernmentwouldworktocurbsuchtragedies.
"Eightoftheseexplosionsinthreeyearsistoomuch,"hesaidwhileattheLNGfillingsta8onnearLegon,asuburbofAccra.ChicagoTribune,October8,2017
RiskHomeostasisTheory
AmmoniaFuelSafety:Twostudies
SafetyAssessmentofAmmoniaasaTransportFuelRisøNa8onalLaboratory,Denmark2005LINK:hIp://nh3fuel.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/riso-ammonia-transport-safety-report.pdf
Compara5veQuan5ta5veRiskAnalysisofMotorGasoline,LPG,andAnhydrousAmmoniaasanAutomo5veFuelQuestConsultantsInc,USA2009LINK:hIp://nh3fuel.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/nh3_riskanalysis_final.pdf
Risø:“Anoverallconclusionisthatthehazardsinrela8ontoammonianeedtobe(andprobablycanbe)controlledbytechnicalandregulatoryop8ons...Whenthesesafetysystemsareimplemented,therisksofusingammoniaissimilar,ifnotlowerthanfortheotherfuels.”Risø:pp.39-40of160.Comparesammoniatogasoline,LPG,CNG,methanol,andhydrogen–ininternalcombus8onenginesorfuelcells.
Quest:“Insummary,thehazardsandrisksassociatedwiththetrucktransport,storage,anddispensingofrefrigeratedanhydrousammoniaaresimilartothoseofgasolineandLPG...Therisksassociatedwithallthreefuelswouldfallintotheacceptablecategoryforallreferencedriskcriteria.”Quest:p.53of59(6-13)
AmmoniaFuelSafety:Twostudies
AmmoniaFuelSafety:Conclusions
DaveGarman:“Ammoniaisn’tsexy.Itjustworks.”DavidGarman,formerUnderSecretaryofEnergy,USDepartmentofEnergyTheCurseofShinyObjects,NH3FuelConference,9/21/2015.
Risø:“Theacceptanceofammoniawillnotbebasedontheresultsofnumericalriskanalysis,butwillalsobeinfluencedbythepublic’spercep8onofthethreatsofammonia.”Risø:p.40
Whataddi8onalinvestmenttomakethesecirclessmaller?