2008 presidential election: mapping area 2008 presidential election: mapping voters

2008 Presidential Election:

Mapping Area

2008 Presidential Election:

Mapping Voters

Presidential Preference and Position on the Electoral College

Politics 262

November 2004

Actual & (Expected) Values

Pro-EC Anti-EC

Pro Bush 7

(2.67)

1

(5.33)

8

Pro Kerry 0

(4.33)

13

(8.67)

13

7 14 21

Chi-square = 17.06. Probability that Presidential Preference and Position on Electoral College are unrelated is less than 0.001%.

Hypotheses?

Hypotheses?

• Leaving the Electoral College alone is the “conservative” thing to do.

• The Electoral College is justified by its results, and it gave us President Bush.

Electoral College Outline

• Why Do We Have It?

• How Does It Work?

• What Are the Systemic Biases?

• Are There No Redeeming Features?

• Are There Better Alternatives?

• Why Do We Still Have It?

System Bias

• The organization of politics has consequences.

• The rules, and institutions, and procedures by which we organize our collective life as a nation are never neutral.

• Rather these rules, and institutions, and procedures allocate advantages and disadvantages to individuals and groups.

• The concept of system bias encourages us to explore who is advantaged and disadvantaged and whether those advantages and disadvantages are consistent with our values or with democratic theory or with the values of American political culture.

Electoral College Outline

• An Experiment with Cornell Students

• Why Do We Have It?

• How Does It Work?

• What Are the Systemic Biases?

• Are There No Redeeming Features?

• Are There Better Alternatives?

• Why Do We Still Have It?

Electoral College Biases

• Small States have a mathematical over-representation because they get at least three electoral votes regardless of how few people live there.

• Low-Turnout States get protected in terms of influence because the electoral college makes voter turnout irrelevant.

• Competitive States (especially large states) become the key battlegrounds and gain disproportionate influence as both sides pour in massive resources.

House of Representatives

• The system of representation in the contingency procedure is a huge departure from the currently accepted principle of one-person-one vote.

• One vote per state!• Wyoming = California

Alternative Systems

• District Plan – WTA in 538 individual constituencies (Maine/Nebraska system)

• Proportional Plan – abolish WTA and divide the electoral vote fractionally

• National Bonus Plan – add 102 electoral votes to the winner of the nationwide plurality

• Direct Election – whoever gets the most popular votes wins

• Direct Election with a Runoff – majority required to win

System Bias of Alternatives

• District Plan – WTA in 538 individual constituencies (Maine/Nebraska system)

• Proportional Plan – abolish WTA and divide the electoral vote fractionally

• National Bonus Plan – add 102 electoral votes to the winner of the nationwide plurality

• Direct Election – whoever gets the most popular votes wins

• Direct Election with a Runoff – majority required to win

• Small States have a mathematical over-representation because they get at least three electoral votes regardless of how few people live there.

• Low-Turnout States get protected in terms of influence because the electoral college makes voter turnout irrelevant.

• Competitive States (especially large states) become the key battlegrounds and gain disproportionate influence as both sides pour in massive resources.

Source: http://theelectoralcollegesucks.com/

Take Home Lesson

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

Mr. Maps

Mark Newman, Department of Physics and Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan