4/26/20 · 2020-05-07 · the wider view source: iri, total us, mulo, 1 week % growth versus year...

Performance review4/26/20On behalf of IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics

Anne-Marie Roerink

President

210 Analytics

The wider view

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20

Total store with fresh 1.9% 10.6% 62.5% 58.2% 14.3% 16.9% 16.4% 5.1% 22.0%

Total edibles excl. fresh 2.9% 8.9% 78.2% 80.2% 24.7% 29.4% 29.5% 10.5% 31.4%

Fresh perimeter -0.7% 3.4% 44.9% 45.1% 11.8% 15.8% 17.6% 1.0% 23.1%

Produce department 0.4% 3.8% 34.5% 29.7% 8.1% 14.2% 16.3% 3.3% 22.9%

Meat department -1.4% 7.3% 76.7% 91.3% 37.2% 41.2% 42.9% 17.8% 49.7%

Total bakery -4.2% 2.4% 78.8% 49.2% 6.9% 9.3% 9.7% -3.9% 11.8%

Dairy department 1.5% 5.6% 60.0% 60.0% 22.2% 30.6% 31.3% 16.4% 37.9%

Deli department -1.1% 1.0% 15.9% 1.3% -20.1% -22.5% -27.0% -25.5% -14.8%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

$ sales growth versus comparable week in 2019

Dairy

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…

Sales week

ending

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/20/26 4/26/20

Dairy +1.5% +5.6% +60.0% +60.0% +22.2% +30.6% +31.3% +16.4% +38.6% $1.7B

Natural cheese +3.7% +8.7% +70.6% +73.8% +30.5% +39.8% +41.7% +22.1% +49.0% $327M

Milk +3.1% +6.7% +52.2% +47.5% +12.2% +22.5% +22.6% +16.0% +25.4% $307M

Eggs -6.1% -1.0% +71.2% +71.5% +36.8% +51.8% +67.5% +24.6% +53.0% $155M

Yogurt -0.4% +3.7% +41.7% +21.5% -7.0% -2.2% -3.9% -0.6% +11.0% $146M

Cream/creamers +3.0% +6.5% +47.6% +43.0% +15.9% +25.4% +25.3% +18.1% +36.1% $93M

Butter +5.9% +8.5% +90.2% +111.8% +61.8% +71.0% +62.4% +15.3% +77.4% $83M

Processed cheese +2.9% +7.0% +80.5% +111.2% +43.4% +46.2% +43.8% +22.0% +42.7% $65M

Cream cheese +3.5% +7.9% +60.0% +69.0% +31.3% +42.4% +51.9% +3.6% +48.5% $41M

Sour cream -1.5% +1.8% +49.6% +60.2% +35.0% +47.6% +53.4% +9.7% +49.1% $30M

Margarine/spreads -2.7% +2.5% +79.9% +104.8% +39.6% +31.4% +11.9% +6.4% +44.6% $30M

Whipped toppings +2.5% +3.6% +32.5% +41.2% +26.7% +41.6% +56.1% +4.5% +52.1% $29M

Cottage cheese -4.5% -1.4% +35.6% +33.8% +3.9% +9.0% +7.3% +4.8% +23.1% $23M

Retail Feedback Group’s Constant Customer Feedback (CCF) program

• “The butter was way overpriced, especially when the farmers are having a

tough time.”

• “Eggs continue to be hard to find. I went to the store with the specific

purpose of buying everything I needed for the week but there were no

regular eggs and specialty eggs are even more expensive than they already

were pre-virus. Seems like the price for European butter and cheese have

come up a lot too.”

• “Still no eggs, yeast or many baking supplies. I talked to the bakery and

they gave me a bake-off bread with great instructions on how to do it at

home. It made wonderful bread and it was greatly appreciated.”

• “With meat and eggs in short supply, are you going to ration items again?”

Communicate about shortages, if possible

210 Analytics

Big volume/dollar gaps

$ gains w/e

4/26/20

Volume gains

w/e 4/26/20

$ gains latest 4

weeks ending

4/26/20

Volume gains

latest 4 weeks

ending 4/26/20

Butter/butter blends 77.4% 68.7% 53.2% 44.9%

Cottage cheese 23.1% 20.8% 10.7% 7.6%

Cream cheese 48.5% 45.3% 33.9% 27.8%

Creams/creamers 36.1% 31.6% 26.0% 21.3%

Fresh eggs 53.0% 22.3% 48.7% 14.1%

Margarine/spreads 44.6% 36.3% 22.6% 15.1%

Milk 25.4% 17.4% 21.6% 14.5%

Natural cheese 49.0% 38.2% 37.6% 28.4%

Processed cheese 42.7% 34.1% 38.3% 30.4%

Sour cream 49.1% 46.9% 38.0% 33.0%

Whipped toppings 52.1% 52.6% 35.7% 35.8%

Yogurt 11.0% 11.3% 0.8% 0.5%

IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics

America is baking

210 Analytics

Online cross-merchandising

IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics

Deli

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20

Deli department -1.1% 1.0% 15.9% -2.8% -20.1% -22.5% -27.0% -25.5% -14.8%

Deli meat -1.2% 5.0% 40.5% 37.5% 6.6% 6.2% -0.5% 0.8% 16.9%

Deli cheese 3.2% 5.4% 44.2% 47.5% 16.0% 16.6% 14.5% 5.2% 30.5%

Deli prepared -1.8% -1.7% -1.1% -24.1% -38.9% -43.1% -47.1% -43.2% -36.3%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

$ sales growth vs. year ago deli department

Deli meat

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

Random weight deli meat

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…

Sales w/e

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/ 4/26/20

Dollar sales -1.2 +5.0% +40.5% +37.5% +6.6% +6.2% -0.5% +0.8% +16.9% $115M

Volume sales -4.2 +1.1% +35.2% +33.9% +2.3% +1.5% -5.8% -6.0% +11.6% 13M

UPC/Pre-packaged lunchmeat

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…

Sales w/e

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26 4/26/20

Dollar sales -4.1% +2.5% +78.9% +88.7% +22.3% +26.3% +17.1% +14.2% +24.6% $115M

Volume sales -6.9% +1.1% +73.7% +88.6% +17.1% +18.0% +10.6% +9.0% +18.3% 23M

c

Non-UPC deli meat that was pre-sliced in

grab-and-go make up 32% of total deli meat sales

Sales +80.0%

Non-UPC deli meat sales sliced-to-order

make up 68% of total deli meat sales

Sales -4.7%

Plastic packaging is no longer the enemy;

grab-and-go can be a solution to drive sales

IRI, MULO, w/e 4/19/20, % change versus YAGO

Random weight deli cheese

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…

Sales w/e

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20

Dollar sales -1.2% +5.0% +40.5% +37.5% +16.0% +6.2% +14.5% +5.2% +30.5% $54M

Volume sales

-4.2% +1.1% +35.2% +33.9% +11.8% +9.7% +8.2% +0.6% +26.4% 7M

Fixed weight cheese

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…

Sales week

ending

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20

Dollar sales +3.6% +8.4% +72.2% +80.0% +32.7% +40.9% +42.1% +22.1% +47.9% $392M

Volume sales -2.0% 4.0% 64.2% 74.3% +25.7% +29.4% +35.1% 11.4% +37.4% 78M

IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics

Deli cheese

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

Deli prepared

Source: Source: IRI, Total US, multi-outlet, week ending April 19, 2020. *NOTE: Items that indicated Random-Weight do

not have UPC, fixed-weight items included pre-packaged meals and categories are UPC, fixed-weight only and include

third-party brands. Deli-prepared foods are random weight as well as simple UPC, fixed-weight private label in prepared

meats.

Sales week of April

12, 2020

Sales week of

April 19, 2020

Sales week of

April 26, 2020

Total convenient meals (random and fixed weight) -32.9% -29.6% -20.0%

Pre-packaged meals (fixed weight) -11.6% -9.1% +2.2%

Deli prepared department -47.1% -43.2% -34.8%

Prepared/cooked meat -27.3% -21.2% -13.4%

Entrees -46.7% -42.4% -31.1%

Appetizers -45.3% -40.5% -33.1%

Sandwiches -49.1% -38.1% -41.7%

Salads -55.3% -54.7% -46.2%

Sides -31.8% -34.0% -27.5%

Dips/sauces -17.5% -26.7% -11.5%

Pizza -39.7% -39.6% -41.9%

Trays -79.0% -83.2% -73.3%

Combo meals -83.8% -82.3% -86.0%

Desserts -59.6% -58.9% -65.7%

Soups -95.5% -85.1% -89.7%

210 Analytics

A bright spot: holiday meals

Outdoor quick service stations

Celebrate seasons,

secondary holidays and

“national days”

▪ There are >1500

national days and

months

▪ Krispy Kreme

“Talk like a pirate day”

▪ www.nationaldaycalend

er.com

Actively remind shoppers about deli prepared

Great example: Hy-Vee

. . .

210 Analytics

Address new wants: no contact pickup

. . .

210 Analytics

Repurposing of salad/hot bars

210 Analytics

If all else feels, there’s always alcohol

210 Analytics

Restaurant creativity

Doughnut Time developed a DIY delivery box

Vegan “David Hassel-Biscoff Doughnuts”

IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics

Bakery

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

-1.3%

3.0%

44.3%

49.2%

15.3% 18.9%18.3%

5.2%

20.8%

0.1%6.3%

62.3%60.8%

12.7% 14.0%

10.0%

4.7%

24.1%

-2.5% -0.5%

11.1%

-0.4%

-20.5% -22.9%-18.8%

-32.1%

-17.3%

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20

$ sales growth deli department versus comparable week in 2019

Packaged baked goods aisle Packaged cookies and crackers Fresh bakery (non-UPC)

Packaged baked goods aisle

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…

Weekly sales w/e

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20

Packaged baked goods

-1.3% +3.0% +44.3% +49.2% +15.3% +18.9% +18.3% +5.2% +20.8% $492M

Fresh bread and rolls

-0.4% +4.9% +58.6% +64.5% +25.4% +29.3% +28.1% +11.4% +24.8% $297M

Bakery snacks

-2.8% +2.2% +23.1% +29.2% -2.8% -0.1% -2.7% -8.8% +9.4% $50M

Doughnuts -0.7% +23.5% +36.2% +13.0% +14.2% +14.2% +9.9% +8.5% +25.3% $28M

Pastries, Danish and

coffee cakes-2.3% +25.0% +26.3% -0.7% +2.4% +2.4% +1.1% -4.7% +15.9% $26M

Bagels +1.7% +4.7% +49.7% +17.6% +25.9% +28.9% +35.7% +33.9% +50.2% $24M

English Muffins

-5.0% +0.9% +52.3% +52.1% +23.4% +35.8% +33.9% +24.9% +52.8% $17M

IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics

Cookies and crackers

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019for week ending…

Weekly sales w/e

3/1/20 3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26 4/26/20

Cookies & crackers

+0.1% +6.3% +62.3% +60.8% +12.7% +14.0% +10.0% +4.7% +24.1% $315M

Cookies -1.7% +3.9% +50.5% +53.5% +13.5% +15.1% +10.5% +5.6% +24.6% $170M

Crackers +2.1% +9.1% +75.6% +69.0% +11.7% +12.8% +9.6% +3.5% +23.6% $145M

IDDBA, IRI and 210 Analytics

In-store bakery

Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago

Top six items in sales

Sales increase for the week ending

4/12/2020

Sales increase for the week ending

4/19/2020

Sales increase for the week ending

4/26/2020

In-store/fresh bakery total -18.8% -32.1% -17.3%

Cakes -23.3% -42.6% -26.8%

Rolls -9.8% -25.8% -8.6%

Bread +9.0% +1.3% +12.9%

Breakfast items -15.5% -15.6% -5.3%

Cookies -15.8% -18.6% -6.1%

Donuts -54.7% -52.9% -49.6%

Croissants +3.4% -10.8% +17.0%

210 Analytics

Adapt sizes and offerings to new realities

Inputs into the crystal ball

The virus is in control Continuation or loosening of social distance

mandates

Newly-formed habits that may be here to stay

Emerging amid a new economic reality

New competitive and departmental realities

Pandemic “battlefield ” decisions with longer-term implications

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

A patchwork of state-level mandates and expirations

makes each set of circumstances unique

1. ▪ The virus controls the timeline: duration/reemergence

▪ Timeline of easing social distancing measures

▪ Timeline of reopening of non-essential businesses

▪ Resuming of travel, school, evening activities, etc.

▪ Need to reach people at home and align with new

rituals

▪ How long will the quarantine mindset be in people’s

psyches?

▪ Germaphobia

▪ Latent social anxiety and fear of in-store trips

▪ Generational imprint

– Appreciation for in-home activities

– Baking, cooking, coffee breaks, exercising

– Celebrations/holidays

» Educate to activate

– Permanent shifts to work from home

» Shifting demand for goods and services with it

– Brand loyalties and trial

• Changes in trip behavior, day of the week, day part and

online grocery shopping

– Online engagement is unlikely to reverse drastically

New habits are easily formed and coronavirus is driving many

Consumers will emerge from the pandemic in a new economic

reality, changing food retailing in profound ways

2

8

▪ Temporary increase in SNAP benefits

▪ SNAP Online for growing number of states

▪ Recession

▪ Double-digit unemployment

▪ Curtailed consumer spending

▪ Prolonged economic “scarring”

▪ Trend toward value-oriented items, brands and

retailers

▪ Spending focus on need-based categories, with

pressure on discretionary categories

A vastly different competitive set: retail, food retail

and departmental landscape

▪ A great retail bifurcation

▪ Employee first

▪ Brand image reset: deepen connections

▪ Right-sizing of items that were left on the shelf

▪ Grocery formats thrived, others will take years to

recover, if ever

▪ Less retail space, a trend that was well underway pre-

pandemic

▪ Vast changes to bulk items, kiosks and self-service

▪ A new view on packaging/wrapped items: protect

▪ Value becomes more important (large pack size)

4.

Operational efficiencies applied throughout the supply chain;

Which warrant a longer-term look?

▪ SKU rationalization

▪ Packaging size choices

▪ Grab-and-go choices

▪ Line extensions

▪ Brand choices

▪ Service case decisions

▪ Merchandising creativity

▪ Etc

• Download the report each week from the IDDBA website:

– https://www.iddba.org/research/industry-research/covid-19-impact

• Please share ideas, pictures and stories with us!

– Eric: erichard@iddba.org

– Jonna: Jonna.parker@iriworldwide.com

– Brian: bn@retailfeedbackgroup.com

– Anne-Marie: aroerink@210analytics.com

Download report