acedp csiro and wf hc and sy

Overview: CIRO and Water for a Healthy Country Flagship

ACEDP Australia-China Roundtable Dr Bill Young, Director, Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship

2 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australia's Future

6500+ staff over 55 locations

CSIRO today: a snapshot

160+ active licences of CSIRO innovation

20+ spin-off companies in six years

Ranked in top 1% in 14 research fields

One of the largest & most diverse in the world

Australia’s national science agency

Building national prosperity and wellbeing

CSIRO operates primarily in the $32bn Australian R&D market

• 3

4 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australia's Future

Harnessing One-CSIRO

Delivering on National Challenges

Exploring New Horizons

Conducting Science with Impact

Building our People and Science Excellence

Our strategy – growing our impact

CSIRO International Strategy 2007-2011 Page 5

CSIRO international engagement 2008-09

• >200 Publications • 50-200 Publications • 10-50 Publications • <10 Publications • No Publications

• 

• USA (1) - 268

• NZ (2) - 117

• China (3) - 88

• France (4) - 56

• UK (5) - 54

• Japan (6) - 49

• India (7) - 43

• Hong Kong (8) - 39

• Canada (9) - 38

• Malaysia (10) - 33

• >200 Collaborative activities • 50-200 Collaborative activities

• 10-50 Collaborative activities

• Co-authored scientific publications:

• Other collaborative activities (top 10 countries):

6 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australia's Future

Future Manufacturing

Light Metals

Minerals Down Under

Sustainable Agriculture

Water for a Healthy Country

Preventative Health

Wealth from Oceans

Climate Adaptation

Food Futures

Energy Transformed

National Research Flagships

Water for a Healthy Country Flagship

Establish research investments that: •  Address a significant unmet need with an adoption partner •  Are large, to accommodate a research portfolio approach •  Are long-lived, to provide a secure platform that allows for new

ideas to be developed •  Build new partnerships with other research institutions to

provide necessary skills

Water for a Healthy Country To provide water managers with options that meet water needs to 2030, creating $1 billion per annum of net economic benefit, while maintaining or improving the condition of aquatic ecosystems

To provide Australia with solutions for water resource management, creating economic gains of $3 billion per annum by 2030, while protecting or restoring our major water ecosystems

Integrated Water Information Systems

Healthy Water Ecosystems Urban Water Regional Water

Stream 1 Integrated Water Systems

Analysis

Stream 2 Recycling and Diversified Supply

Stream 3 Advanced Treatment

Stream 1 Environmental Water

Stream 2 Catchment and Aquatic Health

Stream 1 Water Informatics

Stream 1 Water in a Changing Climate

Stream 4 Water in Northern Australia

Stream 2 Irrigation, Economics and

Environment

Stream 4 Urban Water Environments

Stream 3 Environmental Contaminants

Stream 2 Water Resources Assessment

and Accounting

Stream 3 Water Forecasting and Prediction

Stream 3 Groundwater Characterisation

and Management

Stream 5 River System Modelling

Stream 5 Distributed Systems

Stream 6 Sustainable Asset Management

Stream 7 Intelligent Networks

Water for a Healthy Country Flagship

The largest water research venture in Australia

CSIRO Sustainable Yields Projects

Murray-Darling Basin Northern Australia South-West Western Australia Tasmania

• CSIRO South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields Project – Overview

Annual rainfall and inflow into Perth dams Runoff is affected by climate and other factors

• 16% reduction

• 55% reduction

• Historical

• Recent

The data for SWWA do not include the 10-15% reduction in rainfall and 55% reduction in runoff that occurred between 1975 and 2008

Projected changes in rainfall and runoff by 2030 in four SY regions

MDBSY – Climate scenarios

• 15 GCMs (IPCC AR4), 3 global warming levels (high, medium, low)

•  45 variants for climate assessment and rainfall-runoff modelling •  For each region, select 3 based on modelled mean annual

runoff •  2nd wettest for high warming •  2nd driest for high warming •  Median for medium warming

• Uncertainty in 2030 hydrology is dominated by differences amongst GCMs not differences between warming levels

• Explore water availability, flow regime and water sharing impacts of these 3 variants

Example – Murray region

River model linkages

Surface water availability across the MDB

Current surface water availability

Median climate change impact on future water availability

Impact of climate change on water availability

Median impact is an 11 percent reduction in water availability (~2500 GL/year)

Impact sharing for median 2030 climate

Maj

or fl

oodp

lain

wet

land

s

Changes in average period between floods

Changes in maximum period between floods

Implications for Lower Lakes

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Lake

Lev

el (m

AH

D)

Without-development

Current

Without-development (Cmid)

Current (Cmid)

Implications for Lower Lakes

Implications for water resource management and environmental flows

•  Regional CC projections remain uncertain meaning water resource planning must consider multiple plausible futures in a risk framework.

• Water resource development has doubled the average period between flooding for many wetlands; the additional impact on average flood intervals of even moderate CC could lead to major ecological change.

• Given current impacts even moderate CC would mean maximum periods between floods would be 4x the natural values for many wetlands and ~10x the natural values for some wetlands.

•  Under moderate CC the % of months in which the LL are below MSL would double, and would see LL levels drop twice as far below MSL than would otherwise be the case.

•  CC means achieving ecological sustainability will require greater reductions in water use in the MDB than would otherwise be the case.

Thank you

Bill.Young@csiro.au

Director, Water for a Healthy Country Flagship