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Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate Predictions and Projections
Ants LeetmaaProgram Manager
Contributions from: Jin Huang, Ming Ji, Arun Kumar; and Jim Todd
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Performance Objectives
• Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions
• Reduce uncertainty in climate change projections through timely information on forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate
• Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Requirements: Legislative
• Global Change Research Act: This act mandates the development of a research program whose goal is to understand climate variability and its predictability
• Weather Service Organic Act: Outlines NOAA’s responsibility to produce climate forecasts
• Coastal Zone Management Act: Requires understanding and predicting long-term climate change which may have large impacts in the coastal zone (such as global warming and associated sea level rise)
• Strategic plan for the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): requires reduced uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate may change in future.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Requirements: NOAA Mission
• Understand and predict climate variability on timescales ranging from intraseasonal through seasonal to decadal and beyond
• Monitor, assess, and forecast climate • Improve climate models to reduce uncertainty in the projections of
Earth’s climate• Improve knowledge of observed variability and change of the
Earth’s past and present climate and environment• Understand and predict long-term climate change and evaluate its
impacts on the coastal zone
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Capabilities: 1
• Operational Predictions, Projections and Products: – To provide operational predictions and
products from intraseasonal-to-decadal time scales
– To provide climate assessments and projections in support of policy decisions with objective and accurate climate change information
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Capabilities: 2
• High-end Climate/Earth System Model Development: – To develop and implement the next generation
of climate and Earth System models and to transition improved models into operations
– Resources reside in the Environmental Modeling program under the Weather and Water goal
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Capabilities: 3
• Applied Research and Product Development: – To improve operational predictions and
projections– Develop new climate products– To sustain an applied research capability in
understanding, attributing climate variability and its predictability
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Capabilities:4
• Test Models against observations and define requirements for observing systems to support forecasts and improve model: – Based on model simulations and predictions
studies, provide observational requirements for improving climate predictions and projections
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Outcomes and the End-State
• The long-term outcomes:– NOAA has world-class Earth System Models providing the best
climate predictions and projections available. – Following users’ requirements develop new climate predictions
and projections products.– NOAA maintains a suite of routine climate outlooks, climate
projections, and climate assessments.– NOAA’s internal and external research community maintained
by sustained by research funding to enhance NOAA's climate forecasts, assessments, and applications products.
– Provide observational requirements to GEOSS for improving climate outlooks and projections.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate Services and Products
• Current Prediction Products– Operational monthly/seasonal outlooks– Seasonal hurricane outlook – Days 6-10, 8-10 outlooks– Drought Monitoring and seasonal outlook– Seasonal heat index and wind chill outlook– ENSO outlook
Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate Services and Products
• Current Informational Products:– Contributions to IPCC assessments– Climate Attribution reports – Observational system requirement reports
Climate Predictions and Projections
Unique Role of the Program in the NOAA
Climate Goal• Providing operational predictions, projections, and
information reports– Operational climate outlooks– Climate change projections– Attribution reports
• Provide a mechanism for transition-to-operations (the Climate Test-Bed; GAPP Core Project)
• Develop user required climate products and applications• Promote understanding of climate variability and change,
and its application for enhancing predictions and products• Linking observations with climate predictions and
projections
Climate Predictions and Projections
Functional Structure of the P&P Program
Capability 1
Capability 3 &4
Climate Predictions and Projections
Participating NOAA Line Offices
• NOAA Research– GFDL – NOAA Climate Program Office
• Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP)• Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA)• Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP)
• National Weather Service– National Centers for Environmental Predictions
• CPC• EMC
– Office of Hydrology
Climate Predictions and Projections
Participating External Agencies/Organizations
• International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• National and international working groups (CRC; CCSP; CLIVAR; GAPP; GEWEX; IOC;WMO;…)
• Academia and research community external to NOAA
• Numerous bi-lateral and multi-lateral international agreements
Climate Predictions and Projections
Current Activities in the Program
• Operational climate forecasts on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and services (Climate Prediction Center)
• Model Development for climate predictions and projections
• Climate projections and decadal climate predictions
• Transition-to-Operations
Climate Predictions and Projections
Current Activities in the Program
• Climate Dynamics and Experimental Predictions – Applied research centers– assessments and predictions of global climate variability
and its regional implications
• Climate Prediction Program for Americas– Improving operational intraseasonal to interannual
climate prediction and the hydrological applications in the Americas
• Climate Variability and Predictability– To observe, model and understand patterns of climate
variability longer time scales
Climate Predictions and Projections
The Role of Competitive Programs
• Competitive Research– Address long-term needs (science driven future projects)– Merit based through competition– Mission oriented but not “directed”– Open to external and internal community
• Directed Research– Address short-term needs (e.g., improve operations)– Primarily done by the internal NOAA community
• Climate Test-bed example– Competitive externally lead transition projects– Base funded (NCEP) internal transition projects– Base resource allocated to support transition projects
Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate and Ecosystems
Program
Regional Decision Support Program
Climate Observations and Analysis Program
Relationship with the Other Programs in the Climate
Goal
Predictions and Projections Program
Climate Forcing Program
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Outcome and Related Performance
Measures• NOAA has world-class Earth-System Models
– Number of improved model components• Following users’ requirements develop new products
– Number of improved products– Number of new products under development
• NOAA maintains a suite of climate outlooks– Climate Predictive Index: A weighted average of operational
skill on intraseasonal, seasonal, and decadal time scales– Intraseasonal prediction skill- research– Seasonal prediction skill-research– Decadal prediction skill-research
• NOAA’s internal and external research community maintained by sustained research funding– Number of information products
Climate Predictions and Projections
End Users and Beneficiaries
• General public, private sector, Regional, and National Managers in Water Resources, Ecosystem, Agriculture, Energy, Transportation, and Public Heath Sectors: – The program provides operational forecasts and outlooks of
intraseasonal to interannual variations and intradecadal trends.
• International Coastal Ecosystem Management, Fisheries, Public Health, Regional and National Managers: – The program provides objective information about climate
change projections in support of making informed policy decisions related to mitigation and adaptation strategies related to global change.
• Climate Observation and Analysis, Regional Decision Support, and Climate and Ecosystems Programs under the Climate Goal
Climate Predictions and Projections
Highlights and Past Successes
• Climate Process Teams
• Climate Model Evaluation Project
• Completion of the field phase of NAME
• Successful Hurricane outlooks
• Improved SI prediction techniques
• Development of Application Products
• Initiation of Climate Test-Bed
• Annual Climate Attribution Reports
• Contributions to IPCC AR4
• Development of Drought Prediction
• Clarifying the role of oceans in global climate
• NARCAPP
Climate Predictions and Projections
GFDL Simulation of Atmospheric Circulation in a Coupled Mode are
Among the Best
Average of rankings by R.M.S. error for each of 20 circulation, precipitation, TOA energy balance indices
Climate Predictions and Projections
Z200 Trends Reanalyses and Climate of 20th Century Simulation
Trend over last 40 years
Coupled model shows some ridging, but simulations could be better – especially in yearly mean and locations
Climate Predictions and Projections
Simulating and Understanding Active and Inactive Atlantic Tropical
storms/hurricanes Seasons
1982 – Inactive year 1995 – Active year
GFDL Zetac nonhydrostatic regional model, 18km resolution, with large-scale interior nudging
Observed (Aug.-Oct.), n=4 Observed (Aug-Oct.), n=15
Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=14 Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=6
Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate Predictions and Projections
Objective Consolidation of Different SI Prediction
ToolsCONSOLIDATION IMPROVES SKILL BY 12%
Climate Predictions and Projections
Multi-Model Framework for Attribution of Climate Anomalies
Observed Sfc. Temp.
Average Sfc. Temp. Simulated by 5 AGCMS
Climate Predictions and Projections
Vol. Soil Moisture 0-200 cm July 1988: Drought Summer
Pilot T126 Uncoupled GLDAS/LIS/Noah: 1979-1995 NCEP/DOE Global Reanalysis Surface Forcing
Climate Predictions and Projections
GFS/Noah reduced longstanding high bias of GFS/OSU over east half of
CONUSin the warm season:
Ops:GFS/OSU
Test:GFS/Noah
Example shown for 09-25 May 2005 Mean 17-day surface latent heat flux (W/mm**2) for the 12-36 hour GFS forecast.
Climate Predictions and Projections
North America REGIONAL REANALYSIS
Long-term set of consistent climate data on a regional scale for the North American domain (1979-present)
NCEP/ETA MODEL 32 KM Spatial Resolution; 3 Hourly Temporal Resolution
Superior to NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis due to:
1) Use of a regional model2) Advances in modeling and data
assimilation since 1995:• Precipitation assimilation• Direct assimilation of
radiances• Land-surface model updates
(REGIONAL REANALYSIS DOMAIN)
Climate Predictions and Projections
Budget Impacts and FY05 and FY06 Priorities
Budget Line Impact
Weather/Climate Connection Slowdown in improving Intraseasonal forecasts
Climate Observation and Services Program
Slowdown in development of new prediction products
Climate Modeling CenterReduce outlay for developing decadal predictive capability
Competitive ProgramsNo increases in various grants programs influencing research support
Climate Predictions and Projections
Future Directions and Priorities
Climate Predictions and Projections
10 Year Plan
Where we are now Our near term goals (‘07-’09) Where we plan to be 2020
Develop and implement strategy with community to improve range and skill
of forecast products.Implement systematic research
forecasting program
Implement routine capability for attribution of recent and past climate anomalies taking into account natural
and anthropogenic effects
Implement Earth System Modeling capability with
improved components related to forcings and feedbacks. Provide
high resolution projections for users
Implement systematic research program to assess potential predictability and improve
models
Seasonal forecasts for temperature and precipitation
with limited skill and regionality
Developing capability for attribution of recent major
climate anomalies
Projections of future climate limited by uncertainties in
forcings, carbon cycle feedbacks, and limited
regionality
Process research, hypothesis-testing and diagnostic studies not obviously linked to forecast
skill improvements and new products
Region specific climate projections based on the Earth System
models
Asses various technological mitigation activities and their
impacts on global and regional environmental changes
Real time attribution capability to predict potential climate surprises
and respond to new climate questions
Skillful Seamless suite of Forecasts and products utilizing
multi- earth system models
Forecast products of the impacts on the environment and
ecosystems on a global and regional scale
Climate Predictions and Projections
Desired End State (based on FY08-12 Planning)
• Initial State in FY08: – Improved operational seasonal forecasts– Experimental seasonal forecasts based on multi-model
ensembles– Develop an understanding of decadal trends– Experimental decadal prediction– Application models for drought, fire, water resources– Earth system models for next sets of national and
international assessment– Better knowledge of uncertainties in climate projections– Development of a vigorous research-to-operations
program with implementation of Climate Test-bed
Climate Predictions and Projections
Desired End-State (based on FY08-12 Planning)
• End State in FY12– Improved operational seasonal forecasts based primarily
on dynamical techniques– A broader suite of climate forecast products and services
(extending to health, energy, ecosystems, disaster mitigation etc.)
– IPCC AR5 in 2012 and reduced uncertainty in the projection of future climate
– Transition decadal forecasts into operations– Estimate of likelihood of abrupt climate change– A robust research-to-operations program implemented
Climate Predictions and Projections
Decision support products: management & policy
Operational Forecasts
Transition: Test bed
Research Forecasts, Projections and Product Development
Structured Model Experiments•NOAA, national, international
Process and diagnostic research•Climate variability and change
•Abrupt change•Forcings Program
Model Development and Computers(in W&W: Environmental Modeling Program)
Performance metrics
Performance metrics
Performance metrics
Observing Program
Predictions and Projections: An Approach to Attain Desired End-
State
Climate Predictions and Projections
How do we get There? Develop a Protocol for Linking Research to Improved Capabilities: A Possible
Process
Develop a “life cycle” approach (finite life time projects) for two tracks
• Areas where existing predictability studies show promise of enhanced skill• Where national/international programs (or other considerations) indicate
needed research foci – with goal to increase predictive understandingSteps• Establish priority areas via: a) results from predictability studies, b) other
research, c) AGM (or otherwise) high payoff/relevant areas• Finalize the list based on the input from the research community (SAB;
ARCs; …)• Include research needs in AOs of the appropriate program (CDEP, CPPA,
CVP)• Fund a group of proposals focusing on identified research needs• Monitor progress yearly• At the end of the 3-year funding cycle, prepare a “summary assessment
report”• Results of relevance will be transitioned either to systematic research fcst
category or to operations via CTB
Climate Predictions and Projections
How to get There? Developing a NOAA Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles
for Attribution and Prediction
• What we have now:
– C20C simulations with different natural and anthropogenic forcings
– Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium AMIP simulations forced with global SSTs
– MM ensemble predictions at IRI (based on tier-2 approach)
– Empirical-Dynamical prediction system at Climate Diagnostics Center
Climate Predictions and Projections
How to get There? Developing a NOAA Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles for Attribution and
Prediction
• What is the goal for 2012:
– A multi-model tier-1 SI prediction capability that would include several national models
– Multi-model ensembles for regional downscaling– Linking to application models – Formalization of climate attribution and predictability
assessment activity as a NOAA requirement– An ability to perform “on-demand” AGCM runs for
attribution and predictability assessments– A data distribution capability to enhance community
involvement in the attribution and predictability aspect of climate variability
Climate Predictions and Projections
Future Directions: Intraseasonal Predictions
• Improved week2 skill score• Develop a capability to predict climate
extremes for week 2,3,4• Develop a predictive understanding of
the impacts of climate on the statistics of extreme events, including hurricane
Climate Predictions and Projections
Future Directions: Seasonal-to-Interannual
Predictions
• Improved skill of SI Predictions– Establish a systematic community based multi-model
forecasting capability/infrastructure – Develop a dynamical understanding of trends– Incorporate impacts of other ocean basins in SI forecasts– Systematic predictability assessments to establish
baseline predictability limits• Implementation of a routine attribution capability• Implement drought monitoring, forecasting, and
attribution capability• Develop an understanding of the influence of
climate on environment• Develop new forecast products
Climate Predictions and Projections
Future Predictions: Decadal-to-Centennial
Climate Variability and Trends
• Develop experimental decadal forecast • Understand the contributions of natural and
anthropogenic effect on the major climate anomalies of 20th Century
• Understand feedback processes important of abrupt climate change
• Reduce uncertainty of future climate projections• Improve Earth System Model Capability
Climate Predictions and Projections
• Future Operational Forecasts, Projections and Products• Operational and research seasonal to interannual forecasts• An objective drought monitor and forecast system• Seasonal hydrologic outlooks• Seasonal malaria outlooks• Experimental decadal forecasts• Experimental seasonal air quality outlooks• Yearly attribution reports on previous year’s climate• WMO Ozone Assessment• CCSP Synthesis and Assessment products• Energy related seasonal outlooks• Dynamical seasonal hurricane outlooks• Attribution studies on climatic impacts on ecosystems• Seasonal outlooks for terrestrial carbon budgets• Available online forecasts, projections, structured numerical experiments for impact and application studies• Future IPCC Assessment Reports• Fire potential outlooks
Predictions and Projections: FY08-12
Products
Climate Predictions and Projections
Possible Threats-Summer 2020: hot, dry and unhealthy
Swimming and Fishing prohibited
African bacteria alerts
Expect fisheries downturn; health
threats
Health warning: Limit outdoor
activities; expect brownouts
Frequent floodings and Asian dust threats continue
Major fires Agricultural production at
50%, blowing dust
major fisheries regime change likely
Air quality alerts – 75% of days
High danger of toxic CO2 releases
New environmental forecast products will be feasible
Climate Predictions and Projections
Contribution of Prediction and Program to the Climate
Goal Priorities
Climate Predictions and Projections
P&P Program Structure
Operational Forecasts & Products
Research Forecasts and Products
Predictability Studies
Process Research and Hypothesis Testing
Activities contribution to development of NIDIS Objective model-based drought-relevant forecastsHigh resolution drought monitoring (nowcasts – utilizing various LDAS products)
Multi-model land and climate forecasts (coupled & off line), e.g. a national drought forecsting capabilityHigh resolution downscaling capabilitiesResearch forecasts utilizing dynamic vegetation & river runoff
Decadal predictability studies (utilizing global tropical information)Coupled & uncoupled studies to understand 20 th C. droughtsClimate of last 1000 years – modeling/data studies to understand potential for prolonged droughts & possible 21st C surprisesProjections for 21st C. exploring probabilities for future droughts
Assessing impacts of Indo-Pacific SST variability and trends on U.S. droughtsAssessing impacts of Atlantic decadal variability on U.S. droughtsNorth American research into understanding and predicting hydroclimatic regimes
P &P Program Actions Leading to Implementation of NIDIS
Climate Predictions and Projections
Seasonal Hydrologic Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction System: Prediction System:
A Multi-Model FrameworkA Multi-Model Framework
NCDC met. station obs.
up to 2-4 months from
current
local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs
soil moisturesnowpack
Hydrologic model spin up
SNOTEL
Update
streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff
Now1-2 years back
LDAS/other real-time
met. forcings for spin-up
gap
Multiple HydrologicModels
Month 6 - 12
INITIAL STATE
SNOTEL/ MODIS*Update
Ensemble forecasts ESP traces (40) CPC-based outlook (13) NCEP CFS ensemble (20) NSIPP ensemble (9)
Source: Lettenmaier
Climate Predictions and Projections
P&P Program Contributions in Support of CCSP
CCSP Synthesis Report
Description
3.1Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis
3.3Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes. Prospects for improving projections
3.2Climate Projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through CCTP
1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere- steps for understanding and reconciling differences
1.3Reanalysis of historical data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change
Climate Predictions and Projections
P&P Program Contributions in Support of Ecosystems
• Development of Earth System models in support of coastal nutrient production and runoff
• Model based attribution (and future projection over the next few decades) of significant physical and biological changes to climate variability
• Increased understanding of how variability in climate and ecosystem are linked
Climate Predictions and Projections
Next Frontier for NOAA: Ecological Forecasting
(Nutrient delivery to the coasts)
Courtesy C. Vorosmarty, UNH
Climate Predictions and Projections
Appendix
Climate Predictions and Projections
Addressing the Environmental Challenges of the 21st Century
Applications Requiring ocean – atmosphere
forecasts from weather to climate timescales
Drought and Water Resources
Ecological Forecasting
Energy- Weather and Climate
Transoceanic Pollution and Climate
Extreme Events
Climate Predictions and Projections
June 1998-May 2002(The Perfect Oceans for Drought)
OBS
MODEL
Multi-Model Framework for Attribution of Climate
Anomalies
Climate Predictions and Projections
Ocean temperatures in hurricane formation area result from trends and
(natural) decadal variability
Understanding and ultimately forecasting state of Atlantic
variability
Simulating decadal Atlantic hurricane activity
Protecting the public with world’s best operational
hurricane forecast system
Understanding decadal variability in atmospheric conditions impacting
hurricane formation
Vertical shear - observed
vertical shear - modeled
August-October
Understanding and Prediction of Decadal Atlantic Variability and links to Changes in Hurricane Activity – a Research Program at
GFDL
A significant anthropogenic contribution to observed warming
Contrary to NOAA press release, data suggest Atlantic overturning circulation
is slowing down
Simulating and understanding climate
and hurricanes
Next step - develop understanding of causes
Composite of hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico and ocean surface temperatures summer 2005 -
what is link between these?
Model hindcasts
Climate Predictions and Projections
Note: Uses large-scale nudging
Climate Predictions and Projections
# of models that predict increase in precipitation by 2100
in A1B scenario, out of 20 models used by IPCC/AR4
Climate Predictions and Projections
Minimum spring total ozone: Simulated (3 runs 1960 to 2100) Observed (1979-2003)
Climate Predictions and Projections
Predictability of North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
Climate Predictions and Projections
North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Index
Climate Predictions and Projections
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Cloud Forcing (W
m-2
)
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Cloud Forcing (W
m-2
)
90S 60S 30S 0 30N 60N 90N
Empirical
Process -basedJuly
Standard AM2
Preliminary Results: Aerosol -Warm Cloud Interactions
Source: Ming et al., JAS, in review, 2005; Ming et al., JAS, in press, 2005; Ming et al., JGR, 110, D22206, doi:10.1029/2005JD0 06161, 2005.
Distribution of cloud droplet numbers (cm -3) at 844 mb
TOA flux change (W m -2) from preindustrial to present -day
Shortwave cloud forcing (W m -2)
Annual global mean Indirect effects: -1.8 W m -2
CO2: +1.5 W m -2
Satellite
Climate Predictions and Projections
Nutrient and CO2 Flux Hindcasts
Observed surface NO3 (uM)
Modeled surface NO3 (uM)
Observed CO2 Flux (mol m-2 yr-
1)
Modeled CO2 Flux (mol m-2 yr-
1)c
Climate Predictions and Projections
• Implies a strong role for the ocean model in the coupled simulation
• Unique capability to have multiple ocean models in coupled system
Replacing the ocean component of the climate model has a significant impact on
the SST error
MOM-based CM2.1 (in IPCC) HIM-based CM2.2 (pre-tuning)
Climate Predictions and Projections
• NSF/NOAA has funded CPTs between climate labs (GFDL, NCAR) and Universities to improve physical parameterizations in climate models.– Interaction of (Ocean) Eddies with Mixed Layers (EMILIE)
• http://www.cpt-emilie.org/
– (Ocean) Gravity Current Entrainment• http://www.cpt-gce.org/
– Low-Latitude Cloud Feedbacks• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~breth/CPT-clouds.html
• Teams include: - Observationalists - Process Modelers and Theoreticians- Model Developers - Climate Modeling Center participants
Already delivering improved parameterizations!
Climate Process Teams (CPTs)
Climate Predictions and Projections
Observed profiles from Red Sea plume from RedSOX Courtesy CPT member H. Peters (U. Miami)
Interior Ri# +
Drag Mixing
Interior Ri#
Mixing Only
An Example of CPT Parameterization Improvements
With thick plumes, both interfacial shear mixing and drag-induced near-bottom mixing are needed
Legg et al., 2005
HIM10 km
HIM10 km
Resolved mixing (LES)
MITgcm500m x 30m
Well-mixed Bottom Boundary LayerMixing driven by bottom stresses
Actively mixingInterfacial LayerShear Ri# Param.appropriate here.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Global Mean Methane Trends
• Model with emissions held constant from year-to-year captures much of observed rise in the 1990s.
• Wetland pulse in 1998 is needed to capture magnitude post-1998.
• Trends in OH and temperature contribute to the CH4 rise, followed by a leveling off in the late 1990s.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Aerosol Model Evaluation
Observations
MO
ZA
RT
Sulfate (SO4=)
Climate Predictions and Projections
ModelEl Niño Events
Observation19
61-
1975
198
6-20
00
Model
La Niña Events
Observation
196
1-19
7519
86-
2000
200 mb Height
El Niño :• Before IWP (Indian-western Pacific) warming (1961-75), cold and wet conditions (200 mb troughs) prevail over U.S.• After IWP warming (1986-2000), ridge response to IWP forcing reduces strength of the trough anomaly.
La Niña :• Before IWP warming, warm and dry conditions (200 mb ridges) prevail over U.S.• After IWP warming, response to IWP forcing enhances ridge anomaly still further.
Climate Predictions and Projections
20th and 21st century Sahel rainfall in CM2
A2
B1
A1B
A2
B1
A1B
(CM2 mean)
Climate Predictions and Projections
MODEL
X2.4
Impact of AMO on Northern Pacific Variability
EOF 1 of Northern Pacific winter SST (1901-2000) Regression of winter 500mb geopotential height (m) on PC 1 of Northern Pacific winter SST (1949-2000)
OBS
Climate Predictions and Projections
oceanatmos landocean sea ice
Code Development & Model Configuration
atmos ocean
CM2.0dob: spring ‘04
CM2.1dob: fall ‘04
Each of the two sets of IPCC experiments represents ~2,600 model years of integrations.
The CM2.0 & CM2.1 experiments required 30% to 60% of GFDL’s computing resources for ~12 months and generated >300 TB of model output files.
Climate Predictions and Projections
oceanatmos landocean sea ice
Code Development & Model Configuration
atmos ocean
CM2.0dob: spring ‘04
CM2.1dob: fall ‘04
done: Oct ‘04 done: Jan ‘05
GFDL In-House
Research & Model
Evaluations
(part of GFDL’s
“traditional” science)
Share CM2.x output with
authorsof US
Climate Change Science Program
(US CCSP) reports
Ship CM2.x model output
to IPCC/PCMDI archive in Livermore CA(~4TB CM2.x data shipped)>300 IPCC WG1 registered
users
CM2.x Model Output Files*** Standardization of Output
Files ***
Making CM2.x model output & documentation accessible via the GFDL Data
Portalnomads.gfdl.noaa.gov (no registration,
wider range of users)
Climate Predictions and Projections
Improving Predictions over North America: Accomplishments
- NAME (North American Monsoon Experiment)
- LDAS (Land Data Assimilation System)
- Land model in NCEP Climate Forecast System
- Drought monitoring and prediction (NIDIS)
- EPIC (East Pacific Investigation of Climate)
- Transition of research to NCEP and NWS operations
- North America Regional Reanalysis
- Climate-based hydrologic forecasts
- the NCEP CFS
Climate Predictions and Projections
Elements of a Comprehensive Ongoing Analysis
• Enhancing and managing the observational database– Archeology, new sensors, continuity and feedback
• Ongoing analysis:– Continually update most recent reanalyses (CDAS)
– Use OSEs and OSSEs to document impact of continuing observing system changes
– Provide feedback to observing system developers/operators
• Periodic reanalyses– Post 1979 reanalysis with goal of continuous climate record
– Post 1950 reanalysis with same goal
– Post 1850 surface NH oriented
– Continental-scale regional reanalysis at very high spatial resolution
• Stewardship and dissemination – Ensure that the products are useable
• Applied research– Develop improved methods and products
– Intended to solve problems identified within program
STATUS: MERRA (NASA satellite-era effort) moving forwardNOAA planning begun
PRIORITIES: National and International CoordinationProgram Management in NOAA
Climate Predictions and Projections
Regional climate models have been developed to explore biases seen in Global climate models
IPRC ROAMTMI
GFDL-CM2.1 MPI/ECHAM
COUPLED MODELING: State of the art global coupled models (top panels) exhibit biases in the mean state such as a double ITCZ and west-shifted cold tongue, when compared to TMI satellite observations (bottom left). One way to explore whether these biases arise from local or global processes is to construct a regional coupled model forced at the lateral boundaries with prescribed data. Preliminary investigations with a regional model (bottom right) show a significant reduction in bias.
SST (°C) contours, wind vectors, and precipitation (mm/day color)
Climate Predictions and Projections
EPIC is leading to new parameterizations and improved general circulation models of the eastern tropical Pacific
Infrared brightness temperature can be predicted based on surface wind speed and convective inhibition
Derived formula for cloud base drizzle rate useful for GCMs
Raymond et al. (2004)
Comstock et al. (2004)
Chlorophyll based parameterization of solar transmission has been implemented in NCAR CCM and is superior to Jerlov type.
Climate Predictions and Projections
1. Downscaling
2. VIC hydrologic simulations
UW Experimental West-wide hydrologic prediction system
ESP as baseline fcst
Real-timeEnsemble Forecasts
Ensemble Hindcasts(for bias-correction
and preliminaryskill assessment) West-wide forecast products
streamflow
soil moisture, snowpack
tailored to application sectors
fire, power, recreation
* ESP extended streamflow prediction(unconditional climate forecastsrun from current hydrologic state)
climate model output
CPC official forecasts
(after Lettenmaier)
Climate Predictions and Projections
NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook
Climate Predictions and Projections
NOAA/CPC Climate ServicesNOAA/CPC Climate ServicesMajor Product CategoriesMajor Product Categories
Pre-1994Pre-1994 1994-991994-99 2000-2000-0606
Expert Assessments (e.g., Hazards, ENSO,Expert Assessments (e.g., Hazards, ENSO, 44 6 6 8 8 Drought, Degree Days, published Bulletins)Drought, Degree Days, published Bulletins)
Outlooks (e.g., Week-2, Monthly, Seasonal,Outlooks (e.g., Week-2, Monthly, Seasonal, 44 7 7 10 10 Drought, Hurricane Season, UV, Heat)Drought, Hurricane Season, UV, Heat)
Data, Monitoring, & “Nowcasting”Data, Monitoring, & “Nowcasting” 88 1212 16 16 (e.g., Reanalysis, Ozone, AO/NAO, ENSO)(e.g., Reanalysis, Ozone, AO/NAO, ENSO)
Partnerships (e.g., NOAA Lab MOUs, EPA,Partnerships (e.g., NOAA Lab MOUs, EPA, 44 7 7 11 11 USDA, NASA, IRI, USAID)USDA, NASA, IRI, USAID)
Note: Each major category/example/count above can represent a complexNote: Each major category/example/count above can represent a complex
set of dozens of climate and weather products unique to NOAA. set of dozens of climate and weather products unique to NOAA.
For example, the on-line ClimateFor example, the on-line Climate Diagnostics Bulletin aloneDiagnostics Bulletin alone
presents over 70 product.presents over 70 product.
Climate Predictions and Projections
PrototypePrototype
8-14-day8-14-day
Forecast fromForecast from
The The
North North
American American
Ensemble Ensemble
Forecast Forecast
SystemSystem
(NAEFS)(NAEFS)
The U.S., Canada and Mexico, through NAEFS, will develop a standard set of basic products from calibrated models. End products derived from basic products will be developed to suit each country’s requirements. A very early version of one such end product, developed at CPC, is shown above.
EXPERIMENTAL8-14-DAY FORECAST500-HPA HEIGHTS AND2-M TEMPERATURE (DEG F)MADE DEC 02, 2005VALID DEC 10-16, 2005
Climate Predictions and Projections
Reanalysis (OACS) is Essential
Given continuing improvement in our understanding of Given continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time series, climate observations and the need for long time series, periodic reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate periodic reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts. NOAA, NASA, and DOE collaboration is essential.efforts. NOAA, NASA, and DOE collaboration is essential.
Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate SystemWorkshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado
National and international National and international coordination, and an OACS, coordination, and an OACS, are essential to a successful are essential to a successful
GEOSS program GEOSS program
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