contents *tropics -enso [neutral] -mjo *extra-tropics *verification of aso & october 2014...

CONTENTS

*Tropics-ENSO [Neutral]

-MJO

*Extra-tropics

*Verification of ASO & October 2014 Outlooks

*Drought

*Selected Weather/Climate Events

*Outlooks (November & NDJ 2014-15 & MDO)

I. The Tropics

NiNiño Region SST ño Region SST Departures (Departures (ooC) C) Recent EvolutionRecent Evolution

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 0.8ºCNiño 3.4 0.6ºCNiño 3 0.9ºCNiño 1+2 0.6ºC

Global SST Departures (Global SST Departures (ooC) During the Last C) During the Last Four WeeksFour Weeks

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and western Indian Ocean and below-average north of Australia (the Maritime Continent).

Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four WeeksFour Weeks

During the last four weeks, positive changes in equatorial SST anomalies are evident in small regions of the central and eastern Pacific.

Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)m)Weekly Average Temperature AnomaliesWeekly Average Temperature Anomalies

Subsurface temperature anomalies strongly increased during January - March 2014. During April-July 2014, the positive anomalies decreased to near zero. Temperature anomalies increased between late July and late August, before leveling off.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial PacificEquatorial Pacific

Most recent pentad analysis

Recently, positive subsurface anomalies in the central Pacific appear to be expanding eastward.

Since early September, positive subsurface temperature anomalies have stretched across most of the equatorial Pacific.

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO OutlookCPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO OutlookUpdated: 9 October 2014Updated: 9 October 2014

The chance of El Niño is near 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

IRI/CPC Pacific IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Niño 3.4 SST Model OutlookModel Outlook

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 October 2014).

Most models favor El Niño (greater than or equal to +0.5ºC) to develop during October-December 2014 and persist through Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

* Note: These statements are updated once a month in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

SummarySummaryENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*

Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.*

The mythology of MJOThe mythology of MJO

Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast

RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days

light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts

Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean

The ensemble GFS forecast indicates no robust MJO activity during the upcoming week, with a potential emerging signal over the Western Hemisphere and Africa during Week-2.

II. The Extra-Tropics

III. Verification of ASO & October 2014 Outlooks

Temperature Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 25.61 All forecasts: 13.58 % coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 53.02

Precipitation Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 33.77 All forecasts: 11.21 % coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 33.19

Temperature Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 39.75 All forecasts: 20.91 % coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 52.59

Temperature Revised Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 51.09 All forecasts: 30.39 % coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 59.48

Precipitation Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: -23.75 All forecasts: -8.19 % coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 34.48

Precipitation Revised Forecast Heidke Skill Scores : Non-Equal Chance(non EC) forecasts: 7.83 All forecasts: 2.80 % coverage not Equal Chance forecasts : 35.78

Streamflow/Soil Moisture

USGS Streamflow

IV. Drought

DROUGHT MONITOR

V. Selected Weather/Climate Events

Oct 2014 Severe weather reports

Climate Change Ten Hottest Years on Record, 1880-2013

Year Average Global Temperature (Degrees F)

________________________________________

2010 58.41

2011 58.39

2007 58.33

2008 58.32

2002 58.32

2003 58.30

2013 58.30

2014 58.28

2009 58.28

2012 58.24

Source: Compiled by Earth Policy Institute from National Aeronautics and Space Admin.Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Climate Change (more fun facts)

Oct 2014 tied with Oct 2012 as Warmest Oct on Satellite Record

38th consecutive Oct above normal

355st consecutive months with global

temperatures above 20th Century Average

Last Below Average Oct occurred in 1976

Last Below Average month: Feb 1985

Last Below Average Year: 1976

Jan-Oct 2014 warmest on record

VI. Outlooks for Nov & NDJ 2014-15 & MDO

D’OH! DD’OH!!!!

Big thanx to Brad Pugh, AnthonyArtusa, Wei-Shi