deborah gordon senior associate, carnegie endowment for international peace september 24, 2012

Deborah GordonSenior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

September 24, 2012

Why the Urgency?

Promises•Low natural gas prices are creating alternative to high-carbon, coal-fired electricity generation

•Climate regulations could promote shift to cleaner power

•Uncertain gasoline prices are building consumer interest in alternatives

•Vehicle fuel economy standards are facilitated by vehicle electrification

Pitfalls•New petroleum resources are emerging worldwide

•Renewed investments in oil-fueled transportation are locking in

Forces Promoting and Suppressing PEVs are Building

Key Moment to Determine Future Carbon Balance of Liquid and Alternative Fuels

Source: ExxonMobil, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, 2012

• Conventional oil is expected to plateau…but oil will not run out

• Economics and technology are redefining liquid hydrocarbon resources

• Not all oils are created equal

• The heavier the oil, the higher its imbedded and process carbon

BAU Oil Industry Projections to 2030Where Does Vehicle Electrification Fit In?

• Higher oil prices will expand the volumes and types of oils in the marketplace

• Higher gasoline prices may not be sufficient to spur PEVs

Market-driven Unconventional Oil Upswing

$101: 2011 Avg. World Oil Price

U.S. Electric Vehicle Projected Competitiveness

Next forty years of potential developments in global transport fuels and technology systems on the basis of two distinct scenarios: with durable public policies or without

Source: World Energy Council, Global Transport Scenarios 2050

Charging Onward…

FREEWAYThe “Freeway” scenario is based on pure market forces prevailing to create global competition in the future light-duty vehicle fleet

TOLLWAYThe “Tollway” scenario is based on a public policy-drivers that promote technological advances, infrastructure development, and market uptake

How Do We Get There?

Benchmarking Low-Carbon PEV States

Cultivating PEV Vanguard Cities

PEV Policy Priorities

• Concerted efforts needed to move PEVs from emerging status to self-sustaining markets

• Federal policies necessary but not sufficient

• State and local policies necessary to expand PEVs

• Must engage motorists, local decision makers, and auto dealers

Thank you!

Deborah GordonSenior Associate

Energy & Climate ProgramCarnegie Endowment for International Peace

Website:http://carnegieendowment.org

Email:dgordon@ceip.org

Phone: (202) 957-8849(434) 960-5407

FAX: (208) 330-1212