digitalisation & industry 4 - smart...
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Seite 1© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Bernd DworschakFraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering IAO, StuttgartInstitute of Human Factors and Technology Management, University of Stuttgart
Smart Factory Conference, Transnational Experts’ MeetingStuttgart, 6 July 2017
Digitalisation & Industry 4.0Status of developments in the industries
Seite 2© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Fraunhofer-Gesellschaftzur Förderung derangewandten Forschung e. V.
Staff: More than 23.000
Agencies: German state andfederal governments
Annual 2 billion euros, includingresearch 1.7 billion euros forbudget: contract research
Organisation: 80 research institutions,with more than 67 institutesand research units
Groups: Information and communicationtechnology, light & surfaces, life sciences, microelectronics, production, defense and security, materials and components
Profile of the Fraunhofer-GesellschaftBiggest organisation for applied science in Europe
RESEARCHER
INVENTOR
ENTREPRENEUR
Seite 3© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Fraunhofer IAO and University of Stuttgart IATApplied research for our customers´ benefit
Director: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Wilhelm Bauer
Budget: 31.4 million euros, of which 33.6% are generated from the industry
Staff: some 560 employees
Areas of business:
− Corporate development and work design
− Service and human resource management
− Engineering systems
− Information and communication technology
− Technology and innovation management
− Mobility and urban system engineering
www.iao.fraunhofer.de www.iat.uni-stuttgart.de
Daten von 2013, inklusive IAT der Universität Stuttgart
Seite 4© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Megatrend digitalisation
»Wir haben es mit nichts Geringerem zu tun als mit der Vermutung, dass die Einführung des Computers für die Gesellschaft ebenso dramatische Folgen hat wie zuvor nur die Einführung der Sprache, der Schrift und des Buchdrucks.« Dirk Baecker 2007, Studien zur nächsten GesellschaftBild: Fotolia
Quelle: T-Systems, 2015
»Alles, was sich digitalisierenlässt wird digitalisiert. Wer glaubt, dass sich Digitalisierung nur auf die Industrie 4.0 bezieht, der irrt gewaltig« Johanna Wanka 2015, BMBFTagung BerlinBild: Fotolia
www.digitale-agenda.de
Seite 5© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
DigitalisationA preliminary working definition
means the process of diffusion of information and commuicationtechnologies (ICT) to all areas of life and work and the correspondingsocio-economic change;
means a qualitatively changed process of informatisation; that meansgeneration, reproduction, development and processing of informationand information systems;
is characterised by digital networking of socio-technical applicationsystems with (mobile) devices;
means the application of working systems with increasingintelligent/self-learning technical systems parts, wherein distributeddecisions on people and technology influence each other mutually.
Seite 6© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
The digital transformation of industryIncreasing automatisation by combination of classical technologies andartificial intellegence
Quelle: http://www.rolandberger.de/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Die_digitale_Transformation_der_Industrie_20150315.pdf
Seite 7© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Towards smarter businessCompanies realise the need to change their business models
How strong will yourbusiness model
change by 2020?(Answers »fundamental« respectively »strong«)
60 %50 %34 %28 %28 %20 %20 % 34 %
IT undElektronik
GesamtHandelAuto-mobil
Source: KPMG-Studie, Survival of the smartest, 2013; % (N = 350)
Auto-mobile
Finance/Insurance
Transport/Logistics
Trade Overall IT/Electronics
Energy Tele-communi-
cation/media
Seite 8© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Business transformationDigitalisation is renewing companies and business models
Source: McKinsey Analysis
Seite 9© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Digitalisation in GermanyPotentials for the improvement of processes
Data exhange: Yes, but only selective Mobile devices: Privatly yes, in the job one of five only
Cloud computing: Rarely!
Social media: For marketing yes, forthe job rarely
Quelle: ZEW 2016
Seite 10© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Impact of »smart technologies«Different expectations and resulting activities
Source: Harvard Business Review, 2014; Umfrage unter CIOs, CTOs und High-Level Executives
27%
28%
24%
13%
49%
28%
14%8%
52%
25%
12%9%
60%
20%9%7%
63%
16%9%5%
Not relevant rightnowOn the radar, but no actions planned
Medium- tolong-term planning
In experimental stage
Investments done,already in use
Internetof Things
ThinkingMachines
AugmentedHuman
3DPrinting Robotics
Source: Gartner CIO Survey, 2014; N>2.800
Are technologies going to reach »deep smarts«?Nearly
completely
Largely
Partially
No
4%
22%
71%
3%
Seite 11© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Obstacles for digitalisation in Germany
Quelle: ZEW 2016
Seite 12© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Retail
BanksIT&Media
Travel
Insurance
Professional Services
Catering
Education
Real estate
Construction
Government
Energy
Production
Agriculture
Health
Transport
Mining, Oil, Chemistry
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 1 2 3 4 5
Disruption map by industriesDigital transformation will change industries considerably
Infl
uen
ceo
n t
he
bu
sin
ess
mo
del
Time (in years)
SHORT FUSE – BIG BANG LONG FUSE – BIG BANG
SHORT FUSE – SMALL BANG LONG FUSE – SMALL BANG
Quellen: Heads! und Deloitte Digital
Seite 13© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Characteristics of manufacturing industries in Germany
1
Productivity
5
Quellen: IW Köln (Productivity), JD Power (Best Cars), IT-Performance TNS Infratest, patents: heise online, Intelligence PIAAC-Test
Pictures: BMW, Trumpf, Stihl, Festo
1
Best Cars
3
1
Patents
6
1
Intelligent workers
17
1
Automatisation
…
Strong „Mittelstand“ 99 % of companies, 60% of employment
Configured and individualised products Batch size 1 Complex products, processes and value chains
Expensive, but skilled, productive and innovative employees „Deutsche Facharbeit“ on all levels Shopfloor as source of innovation Lowest ERA-classification 2.120,-/month
Intelligent automatisation Software pushes product innovation
Eroding delivery times – increasing pressure forflexibility Modular and flexible maschine design, downsizing and
low-cost-automation Concentration on flexiblity of capacities
High resilience in strong volatility of markets Successful coping with crisis 2009/2010
Strong and growing industrial IT
Almost 8 million people working in German manufacturing industriestoday.
1
Export machines
2
Seite 14© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
First weaving loom 1784
1. Industrial RevolutionMechanical production with water and steam power
2. Industrial RevolutionWork-sharing mass production with electrical power
Ford assembly lineBeginning 20th century
Firstprogrammable controller»Modicon 084« 1969
3. Industrial RevolutionElectronics and IT for automatization of production
4. Industrial RevolutionBasis: Cyber-Physical Systems
End of 18th century Beginning 20th century Beginning 1970 today
Co
mp
lexi
ty
»Smart Factory«
Towards Industry 4.0Cooperation within social networks
Work instruction workers’ participation cooperation
Resources based on prediction consumption order related
Processes fixed flexible adaptive in real-time
Source: DFKI
Seite 15© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Industry 4.0Technology framework
SMART
FACTORY
ROBUST
NETWORKSCLOUD
COMPUTING
IT-SECURITY
EMBEDDED
SYSTEMS
CPS
Sources: www.kuka.de; DFKI; McKinsey; Fraunhofer IAO
Seite 16© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Production of the future: Industry 4.0First use cases
Technologies exist already and are available –decisive is: − To identify economic use cases and− to develop sustainable business models
Examples:− Mobile devices− Handling assistants− Smart factories and intelligent objects− Predictive maintenance − Smart Data (z. B. Smart Data Innovation
Labs)− App stores of companies− Holistic approaches: »4.0-enterprises«
(Bosch, Wittenstein)
CLAAS TRUMPF
FRAUNHOFER IAO ITIZZIMO + X
KUKA BOSCH
WÜRTHDFKI
BOSCH REXROTH SIEMENS
Seite 17© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Economic potentials of Industry 4.0 Increase of gross value added from 15 % to 30 % until 2025 possible
Potentials of businessmodels not consideredsufficiently yet
ConservativeEstimation
Core industries withhighest leverage
Source: Bitkom/Fraunhofer IAO 2014
Industrial sectors Gross value added[Bill. €]
PotentialsIndustry 4.0
Increaseper annum
Increase[Bill. €]
Chemical industry
Automobile andcomponents
Machine andplant construction
Electrical equipment
Agriculture and forestry
ICT
Potentials of the 6 chosen sectors
Examplary projectionfor gross value addedin Germany
Seite 18© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Future Work: Trends for designing Industry 4.0
Context adaptive Intuitive
Connected Assisting
Strongly increasingadaptability of workingplaces with respect tocontext, people and
tasks
Trends towards newforms of interaction
at work
Increasing importanceof physical and digital
assistant systems
Increasing importanceof real time displays ofworking processes and
objects in a factory
Seite 19© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Future Work Trends: Connected working placesPeople, machines and systems exchange data in real time
No IT systems without seamless connectionof systems as well as process and product data
Connected objects & real time usage ofrelevant production parameter e.g. feedback of production events in theproduction control
Production concepts 4.0 beyond Lean, Acceptance of employees if transparent, qualified for connected work andinterpretation of data
Background
Design
Opportunities
Vernetzt
Seite 20© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Future Work Trends: Context sensitive working placesWorking systems react on their environment in the future
Differences of employees and processes as wellas their demands not considered today
Usage of production context forpersonalisation of working area, e.g. adaption of working height, light situationand distribution of information foremployees
Establishing rules concerning the usage ofperson-related data and identification ofpotential rooms for individualisation
Opportunities
Background
Design
Kontextadaptiv
Seite 21© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Future Work Trends: Assisting working placesWorking places support workers – also for further training
Richness of variants by means of increasingindividualisaton of products
Digital and physical assistance –Feedback-based, beneficial forlearning, adaptive assistant systemssupporting workers in the process (AR/VR, Exos)
Distribution of control between people andtechnology, development of assisted workingcontent vs. short intervals, development ofLearning scenarios in the workingprocess/at work by means of assisstant systems
Opportunities
Background
Design
Assistierend
Bildquelle: Porsche
Seite 22© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Future Work Trends: Intuitive working placesWorking places tomorrow to be operated as easy like a smartphone
Increasing complexity of process-related IT systems for workers
Intuitive interaction concepts usinggestures, language, touches and brainlinked with mobile devices and wearablesas natural tools in the working process
Identification of needed competences for theinteraction with the new means and devices aswell as interaction concepts for the usage ofmobile devices such as BYOD
Background
Design
Opportunities
Intuitiv
Seite 23© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Future Work: Trends of designing Industry 4.0Digitalised work organisation accelerates processes
Contextadaptive
Intuitive
Connected Assisting
Increasing digitalisationof business models
Situation-basedoperational and
organisational structure
Strong emphasis on predictive and und
prescriptiveidentification of events
incl. automateddecisions
Changing competenceprofiles and skill needs
Seite 24© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
For 47 percent of today´s US employeesa high risk for digitisation/automation of theirworking activities exists.
Concept of technologicalUnemploymentKeynes (1933), Ricardo (1819)
»Technological progress is outperforming the creationof new working activities and places of employment.«
Increasingrisk of substitution byindustrial automation
Work is changing…consistently and once again.
Source: Frey, Osborne: The Future of Employment, 2013
Seite 25© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Digitalisation and (possible) impact on employment
Quelle: C. Frey and M. Osborne »The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?«;Technology Review, Economist, 1/2014; WirtschaftsWoche, Nr. 5, 26. Januar 2015
Quelle: Der Spiegel, 19. April 2014, S. 64
Seite 26© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Impact on employmentDigitale transformation produces winners and losers
»Demand for high-skilled labour is iscreasing. On the other hand, many simple tasks disappear.«
Prognosis: Loss of up to 60.000 jobs and restruturing of workingplaces, that means almost no change in total employment
Loss of about 490.000 »more simple« jobs Creation of about 430.000 new jobs
Automatisation today: In 60 per cent of all occupationsat least 30 per cent of task can besubstituted.
Source: Meffert + Meffert: »Eins oder Null –Wie Sie Ihr Unternehmen mit Digital @ Scalein die digitale Zukunft führen; McKinsey Global Institute, 2017
100%
50%
100%50%0%
10% aller Berufe sind zu 90% automatisierbar
Anzahl der Berufe
87% aller Berufe sind zu mehr als 10%
automatisierbar
Aut
omat
isie
rung
spot
enzi
al
Seite 27© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Growing prosperity or loss of jobs?Further studies associated digitalisation with great hopes
2017
Basic scenario: Number ofworking pobulation 2030 on the level of 2014
Scenario »Accelerateddigitalisation«: Increase of employment bygrowing productivity ofabout 250.000 until 2030
Arbeitsmarktprognose 20302014-2030 (in 1.000)
Creation of up to390.000 addional jobs
in German manufacturinguntil 2025
Creation of a total of1 million new jobs
in Germany in the years2017 und 2018
Seite 28© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Potential paths of developmentThe polarisation thesis
Automation
scenario
Specialisation
scenario
Control and management tasks are taken over bydigital technology.
Workers are led by digital technology – „directedwork“.
Digital technology decides, experience is not important.
Comparatively simple »residual tasks« at middle-skilledlevel, dequalification
Digital technology initiates and delivers information tosupport decisions.
Workers decide, experience ist still important for decisionsand problem solutions.
Digital technology is supporting decisions, is used astool, experience is basis for coordinated decisions,
Potential for job enrichment and holistic work
Seite 29© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Increase of quantity and quality of jobs expected
»We now have toprove the practical
benefit of Industrie 4.0 in real manufacturing
environments.«(Dr. Kurt Bettenhausen, Chairman VDI/VDE-Gesellschaft Mess- und Automatisierungstechnik GMA)
How is Industry 4.0 going to affect the QUALITY of jobs in Germany?
How is Industry 4.0 going to affect theQUANTITY of jobs in Germany?
Source: VDI/VDE-Gesellschaft Mess- und Automatisierungstechnik (GMA)
Seite 30© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Industrie 4.0 – A revolution of work organisation?!Development of competences essential
The implementation ofIndustrie 4.0 is requiringthe following competencesof production workers:
Source: Ingenics AG und Fraunhofer IAO (Study)
Willingness for lifelong learning
Stronger interdisciplinary thinking and acting
Higher IT competences
Ability to interact with machines and cyber-physical systems
Active participation in problem solving and process optimisation
Higher knowledge of systems
Control over increasing complexity of work contents
Stronger control of communication
Ability for more intensive cooperation with indirect contacts(internal/external)
Stronger structural participation anddesign of innovation processes
Increasing coordination of work sequences
Ability to with reducesd direct contact with colleaguesof the same division
Ability to make decisions by oneself
Increased build-up of social competence
agree (fully) disagreepartially
Seite 31© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Learning factories 4.0
Simulations
Assistant systems
Challenge: Designing Industry 4.0 applications beneficial for learning andfocussed on competence development!
Fields of action of comptence developmentWork-integrated learning in the smart factory
System competence by understandingconnected, intelligent systems
Understanding processes for physical anddigital processes in cyber-physical systems (CPS)
Interdisciplinary/cross-functional working andlearning, in particular IT, electrical engineeringand mechanics
Generic competences for cooperation, communication and organisation in CPS
Strengthening decision-making by autonomyversus intelligent systems
i4.0 applications
Seite 32© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart
Bernd DworschakFraunhofer IAOTeam leader CT KompetenzmanagementNobelstraße 1270569 Stuttgart
Tel: +49 711 970-2042bernd.dworschak@iao.fraunhofer.dehttp://www.iao.fraunhofer.de
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