digitalisation & industry 4 - smart...

Seite 1© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart

Bernd DworschakFraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering IAO, StuttgartInstitute of Human Factors and Technology Management, University of Stuttgart

Smart Factory Conference, Transnational Experts’ MeetingStuttgart, 6 July 2017

Digitalisation & Industry 4.0Status of developments in the industries


Fraunhofer-Gesellschaftzur Förderung derangewandten Forschung e. V.

Staff: More than 23.000

Agencies: German state andfederal governments

Annual 2 billion euros, includingresearch 1.7 billion euros forbudget: contract research

Organisation: 80 research institutions,with more than 67 institutesand research units

Groups: Information and communicationtechnology, light & surfaces, life sciences, microelectronics, production, defense and security, materials and components

Profile of the Fraunhofer-GesellschaftBiggest organisation for applied science in Europe

RESEARCHER

INVENTOR

ENTREPRENEUR


Fraunhofer IAO and University of Stuttgart IATApplied research for our customers´ benefit

Director: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Wilhelm Bauer

Budget: 31.4 million euros, of which 33.6% are generated from the industry

Staff: some 560 employees

Areas of business:

− Corporate development and work design

− Service and human resource management

− Engineering systems

− Information and communication technology

− Technology and innovation management

− Mobility and urban system engineering

www.iao.fraunhofer.de www.iat.uni-stuttgart.de

Daten von 2013, inklusive IAT der Universität Stuttgart


Megatrend digitalisation

»Wir haben es mit nichts Geringerem zu tun als mit der Vermutung, dass die Einführung des Computers für die Gesellschaft ebenso dramatische Folgen hat wie zuvor nur die Einführung der Sprache, der Schrift und des Buchdrucks.« Dirk Baecker 2007, Studien zur nächsten GesellschaftBild: Fotolia

Quelle: T-Systems, 2015

»Alles, was sich digitalisierenlässt wird digitalisiert. Wer glaubt, dass sich Digitalisierung nur auf die Industrie 4.0 bezieht, der irrt gewaltig« Johanna Wanka 2015, BMBFTagung BerlinBild: Fotolia

www.digitale-agenda.de


DigitalisationA preliminary working definition

means the process of diffusion of information and commuicationtechnologies (ICT) to all areas of life and work and the correspondingsocio-economic change;

means a qualitatively changed process of informatisation; that meansgeneration, reproduction, development and processing of informationand information systems;

is characterised by digital networking of socio-technical applicationsystems with (mobile) devices;

means the application of working systems with increasingintelligent/self-learning technical systems parts, wherein distributeddecisions on people and technology influence each other mutually.


The digital transformation of industryIncreasing automatisation by combination of classical technologies andartificial intellegence

Quelle: http://www.rolandberger.de/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Die_digitale_Transformation_der_Industrie_20150315.pdf


Towards smarter businessCompanies realise the need to change their business models

How strong will yourbusiness model

change by 2020?(Answers »fundamental« respectively »strong«)

60 %50 %34 %28 %28 %20 %20 % 34 %

IT undElektronik

GesamtHandelAuto-mobil

Source: KPMG-Studie, Survival of the smartest, 2013; % (N = 350)

Auto-mobile

Finance/Insurance

Transport/Logistics

Trade Overall IT/Electronics

Energy Tele-communi-

cation/media


Business transformationDigitalisation is renewing companies and business models

Source: McKinsey Analysis


Digitalisation in GermanyPotentials for the improvement of processes

Data exhange: Yes, but only selective Mobile devices: Privatly yes, in the job one of five only

Cloud computing: Rarely!

Social media: For marketing yes, forthe job rarely

Quelle: ZEW 2016


Impact of »smart technologies«Different expectations and resulting activities

Source: Harvard Business Review, 2014; Umfrage unter CIOs, CTOs und High-Level Executives

27%

28%

24%

13%

49%

28%

14%8%

52%

25%

12%9%

60%

20%9%7%

63%

16%9%5%

Not relevant rightnowOn the radar, but no actions planned

Medium- tolong-term planning

In experimental stage

Investments done,already in use

Internetof Things

ThinkingMachines

AugmentedHuman

3DPrinting Robotics

Source: Gartner CIO Survey, 2014; N>2.800

Are technologies going to reach »deep smarts«?Nearly

completely

Largely

Partially

No

4%

22%

71%

3%


Obstacles for digitalisation in Germany

Quelle: ZEW 2016


Retail

BanksIT&Media

Travel

Insurance

Professional Services

Catering

Education

Real estate

Construction

Government

Energy

Production

Agriculture

Health

Transport

Mining, Oil, Chemistry

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 1 2 3 4 5

Disruption map by industriesDigital transformation will change industries considerably

Infl

uen

ceo

n t

he

bu

sin

ess

mo

del

Time (in years)

SHORT FUSE – BIG BANG LONG FUSE – BIG BANG

SHORT FUSE – SMALL BANG LONG FUSE – SMALL BANG

Quellen: Heads! und Deloitte Digital


Characteristics of manufacturing industries in Germany

1

Productivity

5

Quellen: IW Köln (Productivity), JD Power (Best Cars), IT-Performance TNS Infratest, patents: heise online, Intelligence PIAAC-Test

Pictures: BMW, Trumpf, Stihl, Festo

1

Best Cars

3

1

Patents

6

1

Intelligent workers

17

1

Automatisation

…

Strong „Mittelstand“ 99 % of companies, 60% of employment

Configured and individualised products Batch size 1 Complex products, processes and value chains

Expensive, but skilled, productive and innovative employees „Deutsche Facharbeit“ on all levels Shopfloor as source of innovation Lowest ERA-classification 2.120,-/month

Intelligent automatisation Software pushes product innovation

Eroding delivery times – increasing pressure forflexibility Modular and flexible maschine design, downsizing and

low-cost-automation Concentration on flexiblity of capacities

High resilience in strong volatility of markets Successful coping with crisis 2009/2010

Strong and growing industrial IT

Almost 8 million people working in German manufacturing industriestoday.

1

Export machines

2


First weaving loom 1784

1. Industrial RevolutionMechanical production with water and steam power

2. Industrial RevolutionWork-sharing mass production with electrical power

Ford assembly lineBeginning 20th century

Firstprogrammable controller»Modicon 084« 1969

3. Industrial RevolutionElectronics and IT for automatization of production

4. Industrial RevolutionBasis: Cyber-Physical Systems

End of 18th century Beginning 20th century Beginning 1970 today

Co

mp

lexi

ty

»Smart Factory«

Towards Industry 4.0Cooperation within social networks

Work instruction workers’ participation cooperation

Resources based on prediction consumption order related

Processes fixed flexible adaptive in real-time

Source: DFKI


Industry 4.0Technology framework

SMART

FACTORY

ROBUST

NETWORKSCLOUD

COMPUTING

IT-SECURITY

EMBEDDED

SYSTEMS

CPS

Sources: www.kuka.de; DFKI; McKinsey; Fraunhofer IAO


Production of the future: Industry 4.0First use cases

Technologies exist already and are available –decisive is: − To identify economic use cases and− to develop sustainable business models

Examples:− Mobile devices− Handling assistants− Smart factories and intelligent objects− Predictive maintenance − Smart Data (z. B. Smart Data Innovation

Labs)− App stores of companies− Holistic approaches: »4.0-enterprises«

(Bosch, Wittenstein)

CLAAS TRUMPF

FRAUNHOFER IAO ITIZZIMO + X

KUKA BOSCH

WÜRTHDFKI

BOSCH REXROTH SIEMENS


Economic potentials of Industry 4.0 Increase of gross value added from 15 % to 30 % until 2025 possible

Potentials of businessmodels not consideredsufficiently yet

ConservativeEstimation

Core industries withhighest leverage

Source: Bitkom/Fraunhofer IAO 2014

Industrial sectors Gross value added[Bill. €]

PotentialsIndustry 4.0

Increaseper annum

Increase[Bill. €]

Chemical industry

Automobile andcomponents

Machine andplant construction

Electrical equipment

Agriculture and forestry

ICT

Potentials of the 6 chosen sectors

Examplary projectionfor gross value addedin Germany


Future Work: Trends for designing Industry 4.0

Context adaptive Intuitive

Connected Assisting

Strongly increasingadaptability of workingplaces with respect tocontext, people and

tasks

Trends towards newforms of interaction

at work

Increasing importanceof physical and digital

assistant systems

Increasing importanceof real time displays ofworking processes and

objects in a factory


Future Work Trends: Connected working placesPeople, machines and systems exchange data in real time

No IT systems without seamless connectionof systems as well as process and product data

Connected objects & real time usage ofrelevant production parameter e.g. feedback of production events in theproduction control

Production concepts 4.0 beyond Lean, Acceptance of employees if transparent, qualified for connected work andinterpretation of data

Background

Design

Opportunities

Vernetzt


Future Work Trends: Context sensitive working placesWorking systems react on their environment in the future

Differences of employees and processes as wellas their demands not considered today

Usage of production context forpersonalisation of working area, e.g. adaption of working height, light situationand distribution of information foremployees

Establishing rules concerning the usage ofperson-related data and identification ofpotential rooms for individualisation

Opportunities

Background

Design

Kontextadaptiv


Future Work Trends: Assisting working placesWorking places support workers – also for further training

Richness of variants by means of increasingindividualisaton of products

Digital and physical assistance –Feedback-based, beneficial forlearning, adaptive assistant systemssupporting workers in the process (AR/VR, Exos)

Distribution of control between people andtechnology, development of assisted workingcontent vs. short intervals, development ofLearning scenarios in the workingprocess/at work by means of assisstant systems

Opportunities

Background

Design

Assistierend

Bildquelle: Porsche


Future Work Trends: Intuitive working placesWorking places tomorrow to be operated as easy like a smartphone

Increasing complexity of process-related IT systems for workers

Intuitive interaction concepts usinggestures, language, touches and brainlinked with mobile devices and wearablesas natural tools in the working process

Identification of needed competences for theinteraction with the new means and devices aswell as interaction concepts for the usage ofmobile devices such as BYOD

Background

Design

Opportunities

Intuitiv


Future Work: Trends of designing Industry 4.0Digitalised work organisation accelerates processes

Contextadaptive

Intuitive

Connected Assisting

Increasing digitalisationof business models

Situation-basedoperational and

organisational structure

Strong emphasis on predictive and und

prescriptiveidentification of events

incl. automateddecisions

Changing competenceprofiles and skill needs


For 47 percent of today´s US employeesa high risk for digitisation/automation of theirworking activities exists.

Concept of technologicalUnemploymentKeynes (1933), Ricardo (1819)

»Technological progress is outperforming the creationof new working activities and places of employment.«

Increasingrisk of substitution byindustrial automation

Work is changing…consistently and once again.

Source: Frey, Osborne: The Future of Employment, 2013


Digitalisation and (possible) impact on employment

Quelle: C. Frey and M. Osborne »The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?«;Technology Review, Economist, 1/2014; WirtschaftsWoche, Nr. 5, 26. Januar 2015

Quelle: Der Spiegel, 19. April 2014, S. 64


Impact on employmentDigitale transformation produces winners and losers

»Demand for high-skilled labour is iscreasing. On the other hand, many simple tasks disappear.«

Prognosis: Loss of up to 60.000 jobs and restruturing of workingplaces, that means almost no change in total employment

Loss of about 490.000 »more simple« jobs Creation of about 430.000 new jobs

Automatisation today: In 60 per cent of all occupationsat least 30 per cent of task can besubstituted.

Source: Meffert + Meffert: »Eins oder Null –Wie Sie Ihr Unternehmen mit Digital @ Scalein die digitale Zukunft führen; McKinsey Global Institute, 2017

100%

50%

100%50%0%

10% aller Berufe sind zu 90% automatisierbar

Anzahl der Berufe

87% aller Berufe sind zu mehr als 10%

automatisierbar

Aut

omat

isie

rung

spot

enzi

al


Growing prosperity or loss of jobs?Further studies associated digitalisation with great hopes

2017

Basic scenario: Number ofworking pobulation 2030 on the level of 2014

Scenario »Accelerateddigitalisation«: Increase of employment bygrowing productivity ofabout 250.000 until 2030

Arbeitsmarktprognose 20302014-2030 (in 1.000)

Creation of up to390.000 addional jobs

in German manufacturinguntil 2025

Creation of a total of1 million new jobs

in Germany in the years2017 und 2018


Potential paths of developmentThe polarisation thesis

Automation

scenario

Specialisation

scenario

Control and management tasks are taken over bydigital technology.

Workers are led by digital technology – „directedwork“.

Digital technology decides, experience is not important.

Comparatively simple »residual tasks« at middle-skilledlevel, dequalification

Digital technology initiates and delivers information tosupport decisions.

Workers decide, experience ist still important for decisionsand problem solutions.

Digital technology is supporting decisions, is used astool, experience is basis for coordinated decisions,

Potential for job enrichment and holistic work


Increase of quantity and quality of jobs expected

»We now have toprove the practical

benefit of Industrie 4.0 in real manufacturing

environments.«(Dr. Kurt Bettenhausen, Chairman VDI/VDE-Gesellschaft Mess- und Automatisierungstechnik GMA)

How is Industry 4.0 going to affect the QUALITY of jobs in Germany?

How is Industry 4.0 going to affect theQUANTITY of jobs in Germany?

Source: VDI/VDE-Gesellschaft Mess- und Automatisierungstechnik (GMA)


Industrie 4.0 – A revolution of work organisation?!Development of competences essential

The implementation ofIndustrie 4.0 is requiringthe following competencesof production workers:

Source: Ingenics AG und Fraunhofer IAO (Study)

Willingness for lifelong learning

Stronger interdisciplinary thinking and acting

Higher IT competences

Ability to interact with machines and cyber-physical systems

Active participation in problem solving and process optimisation

Higher knowledge of systems

Control over increasing complexity of work contents

Stronger control of communication

Ability for more intensive cooperation with indirect contacts(internal/external)

Stronger structural participation anddesign of innovation processes

Increasing coordination of work sequences

Ability to with reducesd direct contact with colleaguesof the same division

Ability to make decisions by oneself

Increased build-up of social competence

agree (fully) disagreepartially


Learning factories 4.0

Simulations

Assistant systems

Challenge: Designing Industry 4.0 applications beneficial for learning andfocussed on competence development!

Fields of action of comptence developmentWork-integrated learning in the smart factory

System competence by understandingconnected, intelligent systems

Understanding processes for physical anddigital processes in cyber-physical systems (CPS)

Interdisciplinary/cross-functional working andlearning, in particular IT, electrical engineeringand mechanics

Generic competences for cooperation, communication and organisation in CPS

Strengthening decision-making by autonomyversus intelligent systems

i4.0 applications


Bernd DworschakFraunhofer IAOTeam leader CT KompetenzmanagementNobelstraße 1270569 Stuttgart

Tel: +49 711 [email protected]://www.iao.fraunhofer.de

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