drought: it ain't over till it's over

Drought: It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over…

Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G.Texas Water Development Board

presented to the Texas Water Conservation AssociationHorseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012

The Drought Ain’t Over Until John Nielsen-Gammon Sings

or…

3/30/2

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4/18/2

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5/7/2

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5/26/2

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6/14/2

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7/3/2

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7/22/2

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8/10/2

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8/29/2

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9/17/2

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10/6/2

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10/25/2

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11/13/2

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12/2/2

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12/21/2

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1/9/2

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1/28/2

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2/16/2

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3/7/2

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3/26/2

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4/14/2

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5/3/2

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5/22/2

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6/29/2

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8/6/2

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8/25/2

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11/28/2

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Drought categories with time

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4/18/2

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7/22/2

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8/10/2

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8/29/2

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9/17/2

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10/6/2

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10/25/2

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11/13/2

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12/2/2

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12/21/2

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1/9/2

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1/28/2

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2/16/2

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3/7/2

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3/26/2

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4/14/2

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5/3/2

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5/22/2

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6/10/2

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6/29/2

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7/18/2

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8/6/2

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8/25/2

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9/13/2

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10/2/2

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10/21/2

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11/9/2

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11/28/2

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12/17/2

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1/5/2

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1/24/2

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2/12/2

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3/2/2

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3/21/2

012

4/9/2

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4/28/2

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Drought categories with time

RESERVOIR CONSERVATION STORAGE DATA-1% from last

week( )

Reservoir Storage by Climatic Region (% Full)

(Change from 5/30/2012)

(+0.03%) (+0.14%)

(-0.37%)

(-0.71%)(-0.11%) (-0.20%)

(-0.40%)

(-1.77%)

(-1.05%)

“Lake” Meredith (Texas share)

O.H. Ivie Reservoir

Lake Brownwood

Lake Travis

Falcon Reservoir (Texas share)

Total storage in Elephant Butte ~ 2,000,000 acre-feet (total storage in Caballo varies during the year from ~350,000 acre-feet to 50,000 acre-feet)

http:// www.southernclimate.org/products/precip.php

30-Day Precipitation Percentage of Normal

May 1-30, 2012

Percentage of Normal0%-19%20%-39%40%-59%60%-79%80%-99%100%-119%>120%

60%

55%

47%

48%

204%137%

105%72%

105%

73%

April 1-30, 2012

86%

60%

51%

45%74%

99% 38%42%

101%44%

30-day Mean Flow ConditionsStreamflow Index

http://www.saws.org/our_water/aquifer/

Groundwater Level in J-17 Well

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

June 6, 2012

Public Water Supply Systems Affected by

Drought

http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/permitting/water_supply/pdw/trot/location.html

RESOLVED (1)WATCH – Voluntary (417)WATCH – Mandatory (592)

Total number of Community water systems affected: 1009Total number of active Community water systems in Texas: 4699

El Nino/La Nina: 50% chance of El Nino 2nd half 2012

Demand v. Supply

Demand for water

Water we have now

Acre

-feet

Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G.Texas Water Development Board

presented to the Texas Water Conservation AssociationHorseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012