drought: it ain't over till it's over
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at the TWCA mid year conference 2012 www.twca.org Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G. Texas Water Development Board presented to the Texas Water Conservation Association Horseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012TRANSCRIPT
Drought: It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over…
Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G.Texas Water Development Board
presented to the Texas Water Conservation AssociationHorseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012
The Drought Ain’t Over Until John Nielsen-Gammon Sings
or…
3/30/2
010
4/18/2
010
5/7/2
010
5/26/2
010
6/14/2
010
7/3/2
010
7/22/2
010
8/10/2
010
8/29/2
010
9/17/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/25/2
010
11/13/2
010
12/2/2
010
12/21/2
010
1/9/2
011
1/28/2
011
2/16/2
011
3/7/2
011
3/26/2
011
4/14/2
011
5/3/2
011
5/22/2
011
6/10/2
011
6/29/2
011
7/18/2
011
8/6/2
011
8/25/2
011
9/13/2
011
10/2/2
011
10/21/2
011
11/9/2
011
11/28/2
011
12/17/2
011
1/5/2
012
1/24/2
012
2/12/2
012
3/2/2
012
3/21/2
012
4/9/2
012
4/28/2
012
5/17/2
012
6/5/2
0120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Drought categories with time
3/30/2
010
4/18/2
010
5/7/2
010
5/26/2
010
6/14/2
010
7/3/2
010
7/22/2
010
8/10/2
010
8/29/2
010
9/17/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/25/2
010
11/13/2
010
12/2/2
010
12/21/2
010
1/9/2
011
1/28/2
011
2/16/2
011
3/7/2
011
3/26/2
011
4/14/2
011
5/3/2
011
5/22/2
011
6/10/2
011
6/29/2
011
7/18/2
011
8/6/2
011
8/25/2
011
9/13/2
011
10/2/2
011
10/21/2
011
11/9/2
011
11/28/2
011
12/17/2
011
1/5/2
012
1/24/2
012
2/12/2
012
3/2/2
012
3/21/2
012
4/9/2
012
4/28/2
012
5/17/2
012
6/5/2
0120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Drought categories with time
RESERVOIR CONSERVATION STORAGE DATA-1% from last
week( )
Reservoir Storage by Climatic Region (% Full)
(Change from 5/30/2012)
(+0.03%) (+0.14%)
(-0.37%)
(-0.71%)(-0.11%) (-0.20%)
(-0.40%)
(-1.77%)
(-1.05%)
“Lake” Meredith (Texas share)
O.H. Ivie Reservoir
Lake Brownwood
Lake Travis
Falcon Reservoir (Texas share)
Total storage in Elephant Butte ~ 2,000,000 acre-feet (total storage in Caballo varies during the year from ~350,000 acre-feet to 50,000 acre-feet)
http:// www.southernclimate.org/products/precip.php
30-Day Precipitation Percentage of Normal
May 1-30, 2012
Percentage of Normal0%-19%20%-39%40%-59%60%-79%80%-99%100%-119%>120%
60%
55%
47%
48%
204%137%
105%72%
105%
73%
April 1-30, 2012
86%
60%
51%
45%74%
99% 38%42%
101%44%
30-day Mean Flow ConditionsStreamflow Index
http://www.saws.org/our_water/aquifer/
Groundwater Level in J-17 Well
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
June 6, 2012
Public Water Supply Systems Affected by
Drought
http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/permitting/water_supply/pdw/trot/location.html
RESOLVED (1)WATCH – Voluntary (417)WATCH – Mandatory (592)
Total number of Community water systems affected: 1009Total number of active Community water systems in Texas: 4699
El Nino/La Nina: 50% chance of El Nino 2nd half 2012
Demand v. Supply
Demand for water
Water we have now
Acre
-feet
Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G.Texas Water Development Board
presented to the Texas Water Conservation AssociationHorseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012