elvin siew chun wai - travel and tourism

Travel and Tourism

Overview of the Travel and Tourism Industry, its importance to the global economy and the

significance of civil aviation to that industry.

Travel & Tourism Data1999 and 2010

High LightsGlobal Data U. S. Data

Travel & Tourism Data

and Supporting Reports for the

NASA Aeronautics Study

Critique & Technical Discussion of T & T Data

1993 DataCriticismsRevisionsRecent Data SystemCautions

Comparing 1994 & 1999 No adequate Documentation or Definitions for

1994 Data Terms not Comparable Estimating Techniques Different

T & T DATA HISTORY World Travel & Tourism Council First Estimate of T & T Industry Economic

Data--1993 Forecasts for 1994 and 2001 Immediate Objectives

Support “Free Trade in the Air” Emphasis on Air transport Show significance of the T & T Industry

Criticisms of T & T Data

Industry Generated Data Lacked Documentation & Methodology Not Comparable with Existing Economic

Databases Viewed by Others as Self-serving

Recommendations of Professionals

Rigorous Methodology Definitions and Documentation Links to Existing Official Economic Data

Bases Credible Data Collection Entities

Resulting Data System

Most other OECD Countries Now Provide Compatible Data

UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs Collects Data from Most

CountriesUses Methodology &

Definitions Compatible with OECD Countries

Data for the U. S. 1995 Whitehouse Conference BEA to

Develop Data System Travel & Tourism Satellite Account

Completed 1998 Methodology and Definitions Rigorously

Documented Integrated into the U. S. Input and Output

Accounts I-O Factors among Industry Groups

Developed

United Nations Data Collection• UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs (Information Office) and UN Tourism Organization

• Now Collecting Data from Most Countries•Uses Methodology & Definitions Compatible with OECD Countries

Limitations of T & T SA

U. S. Data Based on 1992 Business Census Assumption--1992 relationships (Input-Output)

hold until next Census I-O Factors revised after 1998 Business Census

(Revisions Due Late 1999/Early 2000)

World Travel & Tourism Council

1999 Forecast Of T & T Economic Impact Derived from 1998 Data

Projection for 2010 is Included Global and Regional Forecasts for 1999 and

Projections for 2010 General Agreement on Methodology &

Terms

Limitations on Newly Released Forecasts & Projections

All OECD Countries Now Report No Data from Many Smaller Countries Regional Samples Used for Some (Latin

America, Eastern Europe) E.g., Argentina and Brazil

Used to Estimate Latin America

Assumed Growth Rates to 2010

Key Points from Global Projection For 2010 For Travel & TourismReal Growth 3.3% per

year Through 2010 Economy GDP will be 11% of Global GDP Employment will be 9% Tax Revenues at 11.7% of Total

United States Data for T & T Up to 25% of All Direct T & T Expenditures

for Airfares Largest Single Item

T & T GDP $1,067 Billion in 1999 Japan next highest at $389 B.

T & T GDP Projected at $1.8 Trillion by 2010

U. S. Employment & Government Spending T & T Economy accounts for 17.5 Million U.S.

jobs in 1999 (13.2%) 20.2 Million U.S. Jobs Expected in 2010

(13.5%) Governments spent $52.2 Billion for T & T

1999 By 2010 Projected to reach $85 Billion

Direct & Indirect Economic Factors Factors for US Air

Transportation Direct & Indirect Requirements:

Per $ of Air Transportation Service Primary Ind. (mfg) = .35 Transportation = 1.17 Services = .47 Total = 1.99

The Direct Impact is .99 or approx. $1 to $1: Indirect to Direct

Travel & Tourism Factors Direct Products & Services Required per $1

expended for Travel & Tourism in the U. S. Air fares .25 Lodging .16 Meals, etc .14 Shopping .12 All Other .34 Total $1.00

Travel and Tourism Demand Includes

Personal Consumption (Durables, Non-durables, Services) Business Travel (Corporate & Government) Visitor Exports Government Expenditures Capital Investment Non-visitor Exports (World Tourism)

Industry Perspective of the T & T Satellite

Account Captures all economic activity

related to persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment.

For purposes of Satellite Accounting the optimal aggregated measurement is best determined from the demand point of view

Industry prefers the T & T Demand measure (largest measure of activity)

Gross Domestic Product for T & T

GDP of Tourism Industries (Direct and Indirect GDP for Tourism Consumption)

Imports by Tourist Industries Employment by Tourist Industries