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Forum IDC Porto

European fears…

ECB to the rescue…

Germany and its backyard…

Big Three bond yields

Bond yields

Pre-Troika… Post-Troika

Marriage and… tragedy?

Who’s paying…?

Public spending (as % of GDP)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Juros Despesa total excl. juros Receita total Receita f iscal Défice

% do PIB

Fonte: AMECO.

Fat…? Where?

Current account (as % do GDP)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Bal. Bens Bal. Serv. Bal. Rend.Bal. Tranf. Corr. Bal. Corr. Fonte: AMECO

% do PIB

Productivity matters

Labour costs…

The near future... III (3 to 5 years)

The near future... II (3 to 5 years)

Portuguese banks and the ECB (bn euros)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8Ag

o-08

Set-0

8O

ut-0

8No

v-08

Dez-

08Ja

n-09

Fev-

09M

ar-0

9Ab

r-09

Mai

-09

Jun-

09Ju

l-09

Ago-

09Se

t-09

Out

-09

Nov-

09De

z-09

Jan-

10Fe

v-10

Mar

-10

Abr-1

0M

ai-1

0Ju

n-10

Jul-1

0Ag

o-10

Set-1

0

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Financiamento líquido total concedido pelo BCE (ELE) em % do Eurosistema

milhões de euros

Fonte: Bancos

Loan-to-deposit ratio (EU)

Too heavy…?

Bancos à míngua

Grécia 30 bn

Espanha 26,2 bn

França 8,8

Itália 14,8

Portugal 7,8 bn

Alemanha 5,2 bn

BENELUX 4,1

Chipre 3,6 bn

Áustria 2,9 bn

Sinking bank stocks

Euro area: 17 countries…?

Case-study

-Nokia market cap (-75% in 3 years)

‘ outside the “box” II (music business)

Euro area: 17 countries…?

Public servants-the future…

Facts, nothing but facts…