geelong alia final

Leah KrevitRice University

The Rest of Us

Stephen Abram, MLS, Gale Cengage Learning

Emerging Technology ForumGeelong, Australia Oct. 2010

Future Ready

GOOG

6 Things have Changed . . . A LOT!

1. Cardholders, Users, Members, Patrons, Clients, Customers, Learners, Students, Scholars, Researchers, Teachers, Professors

2. Books3. Media4. Mobility5. Collections6. Libraries

The History of Unintended

Consequences & Unpredictability

“The Internet has now progressed to its infancy”

“Choose . . .

To be a victim and feel these changes are fated and blame stormOR

Create the future we need and take collective responsibility for the conversation and development.”

Find Reasons not Excuses.

How can I lead my library and my

communities or institution to be ready

for 500 years?

People

A 1965 iPhone

Can libraries keep up with change?

Can you recall buying a 45? Can you recall dials on TVs? Can you recall dialling?

What We Never Really Knew Before (US/Canada)

27% of our users are under 18. 59% are female. 29% are college students. 5% are professors and 6% are teachers. On any given day, 35% of our users are there for the

very first time! Only 29% found the databases via the library website. 59% found what they were looking for on their first

search. 72% trusted our content more than what they found

on Google. But, 81% still use Google.

We often believe a lot

that isn’t true.

People are Changing

• Demographic– Millennial, Boomer, Seniors• IQ Increases• Increased educational attainment & engagement• eBooks outsell hard cover books, and will outsell

paperbacks soon (2011)• Some libraries are crediting most cardholder growth

to e-book accessibility• Personal device proliferation• Some sectors are very tech-dominated (farming,

cattle, trucking, natural resources…)

People Have Changed

• Twitter & Facebook are dominated by the middle aged

• Gaming too. . . Mothers in their 30’s• Social networks fastest growing populations are

seniors and will be more international and less urban and English.

• eBooks usage is largely middle-aged.• Mobile data usage is growing beyond youth

very quickly, workplace use is huge

Have Students Changed

?

NextGen Differences

Increase in IQ - 15-20 PointsBrain & Developmental Changes

Eye Movement Changes

Massive Behavioural ChangesMajor Decline in Crime Rates – 65%

+But still a 70% behavior overlap

with Boomers (see my book chapter)

Discovery & Ideas

Has the future changed?Has our future changed?

COWS, etc.

The Future Discovered• Stem Cells• fMRI and The Brain• Cloning• Trucking and GPS• Wind and other energy• Nanotechnology• Robotics• Massive Book Digitization• Music• Translation• Streaming Media• Seed Bank

Books

Pay Real AttentionTo Google Editions&Google SettlementAmazonGutenbergEtc.

Is Our FocusOn BooksAnd PublicImage Limiting OurFuture Success?

A window of opportunity

Do we really care about containers?Stone – Wax – Scrolls – Books – Next...

Paper -- SchmpaperDigital – SchmidgitalHolograph . . . Pffft!

TransmogrifyingContainers

Will Libraries be Device

Agnostic?

iPads, Kobos, Kindles,

Nooks, eDGe, and Mobile

Phones?

Borders Kobo, B&N Nook, Amazon Kindle, Apple iPad, Sony, etc. . . .

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• eBooks and Books• Concept of place• Privacy• Colour & Animation• Chapters and Paragraph (anthologies, poems, short stories)• Video• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Pedagogy• Boundarylessness• Connect to the author or team• Added features and commentary• Connect to book clubs, discussions, etc.

Media

The Move to Streaming

• Like wax, vinyl and tape before it CD and DVD will decline to very small niche markets

• Blockbuster’s bankruptcy and the decline of local independent rental stores is a canary in the mine

• Many PL’s confuse the current uptick with a LT trend.

• Music and Video entertainment vs. programs related to learning, hobbies, children, etc.

• Educational video is an emerging sector integrated very tightly into content

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• Streaming Media on demand• Definition of ‘use’.• Concept of place• Concept of News and Entertainment• End of physical format (DVD, tape, etc.)• Self published animation & video• Commentary, Reviews and Collectors• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Pedagogy• Boundarylessness• End of collections as we know them • Beginning of media bibliography

Mobility

Broadband

• You must clearly understand the latest US FCC Whitespace Broadband Decision – THIS IS TRANSFORMATIONAL and going global

• Local wired, mobile access ‘everywhere’• To the home and workplace• Wireless as a business strategy (Starbucks)• Mobile dominates• Largest generation

& AMAZON

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• Mobility• Concept of place – Adopt a hybrid mindset• Social animation and Sharing• Convergence on steroids• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Pedagogy and Learning• Extreme demand

Collections

An New Emerging Model• Just in case, Just in time, just for me models are now

ripe for replacement with• Fit for Purpose

– Community– Learning– Entertainment– Social / Clubs– Research

• Beginning of the end for the dominance of out-of-context Megadatabases –

• Think meals vs. grocery stores

Emerging Tech that Drives Users to the Library

• Encyclopedia.com• HighBeam & Questia• WorldCat• AccessMyLibrary iPhone App for

public, school and higher ed – iPhone, iPad, iTouch and Droid!

• Geo-IP features and measures• Watch for more . . .

What Grows Virtual Use?

• Being ready before the user• Experience Models• Social web 2.0• API’s, Widgets, Social presence• Understanding Use: SEO, SMO, Google

Analytics. Geo-IP, ForeSee• Satisfaction data AND Statistics – Measure too

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• Collections• Concept of place and space• Ownership mutates• Personal curation and celebrity curators• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Targeting collections • Portalization: Knowledge Portals, Learning portals

LibrariesApproaching the End Game of this

RenaissanceBuild it or buy it?

I my customers

NOT ENOUGH

What is the top strategic positioning for libraries

Hint – not collections

Trans-LiteracyMove beyond reading & PC skills • Reading literacy• Numeracy• Critical literacy• Social literacy• Computer literacy• Web literacy• Content literacy• Written literacy

• News literacy• Technology literacy• Information literacy• Media literacy• Adaptive literacy• Research literacy• Academic literacy• Reputation, Etc.

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• Libraries• Concept of place• Improving the quality of questions• Partnering in design of experiences• Programs predominate• Community involvement• Re-balancing needs• Addressing the divides• Promoting the talent – professional service and

programs

Strategic Thinking for Libraries

1. Choosing a Future2. Setting Phased Priorities

3. Making Choices4. Taking Action

5. Doing the Next Step6. Adjusting Tactics with Experience7. Seeking Feedback and Adjusting

8. Measuring Progress

Framework for Choosing Top Priorities • Suppose that in three years:• Majority of library use will be virtual – yes even rural!• Majority of Non-fiction Book circulation will be e-

books and Fiction will split 50/50 – digital/print• All learning will be blended and continuous• DVD is circulation is dead and most other [physical

formats in decline.• Majority of questions will be virtual• Use will be 20 / 40 / 40 (in house, virtual, mobile)• Every user will be socially networked, connected and

engaged

What do we need to know?What are we going to do next?

What do we need to know?• How do library databases and virtual services

compare with other web experiences?• Who are our core virtual users? Are there gaps?• Does learning happen?• What are user expectations for true satisfaction?• How does library search compare to consumer

search like Google and retail or government?• How do people find and connect with library virtual

services?• Are end users being successful in their POV?• Are they happy? Will they come back? Tell a friend?

Community

Stories

Relationships

Stories

Personalization

Differentiate

Comfort

Serve Everyone!

The power of libraries

Stephen Abram, MLS, FSLAVP strategic partnerships and markets

Cengage Learning (Gale)Cel: 416-669-4855

stephen.abram@cengage.comStephen’s Lighthouse Blog

http://stephenslighthouse.comFacebook: Stephen Abram

LinkedIn / Plaxo: Stephen AbramTwitter: sabram

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