geoff anderson, smart growth america

Geoff AndersonSmart Growth AmericaMarch 7, 2008

Regional Redevelopment Summit

Changes in Washington

• Rise of Issues Significant for Redevelopment– Climate– Transportation– Infrastructure– Foreclosure– Economic Stimulus– Energy

• Change in Administration, Changes in Congress

Growing Cooler:The Evidence on Urban Development and

Climate Change

Smart Growth America, The Urban Land Institute

Transportation Greenhouse Gases: Three Legs of a Stool

Vehicle Efficiency (mpg)

Fuel Greenhouse Gas content (Fuel GHG)

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

Need progress on all three, but climate policy discussions have ignored VMT

US VMT Growth Projected to Outpace Vehicle & Fuel Improvements

70%

80%

90%100%

110%

120%

130%

140%150%

160%

170%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2005

= 1

00%

Source: EIA AEO 2007

CO2

1990 CO2

Fuel GHG

MPG

VMT

Senate CAFE (35 mpg) + CA Fuel Standards (-10%): 40% above 1990 Levels in 2030

70%

80%

90%100%

110%

120%

130%

140%150%

160%

170%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2005

= 1

00%

Sources: VM T: EIA with 10% rebound M PG: US Senate, Fuels: CARB

CO2

1990 CO2

Fuel GHG

MPG

VMT

The 3 Questions Answered inGrowing Cooler

• What reduction in vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) is possible in the United States with compact development rather than continuing urban sprawl?

• What reduction in CO2 emissions will accompany such a reduction in VMT?

• What policy changes will be required to shift the dominant land development pattern from sprawl to compact development?

– Does the U.S. want compact development?

Four Literatures – Core of ULI Book

• Aggregate travel studies

• Disaggregate travel studies

• Regional simulation studies

• Project simulation studies

25% Less VMT with Compact Development

27

21

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ten Most Compact Metros Ten Least Sprawling Metros

Avg

. Dai

ly V

ehic

le M

iles

Trav

eled

per

Cap

ita

Atlantic Station vs. Henry County

Regional Accessibility Accounts for Savings of 1/3 VMT

Sandy Springs

Cobb/Fulton Henry County

Atlantic Station

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1

Dai

ly V

MT

20-40% VMT Reduction for Each Increment of Compact

Development

7-10% Reduction in Total CO2Emissions in 2050

Only Land Development Effects

Only Transportation Sector

And Essentially Permanent

What Growing Cooler Does Not Include: Revitalization

• According to NTHP:– a 50,000 sq ft office

building= 640,000 gals of gas

– Bldg new is like driving 2.8 million miles

– New EE bldg takes 65 yrs to break even

Transportation• Interstate Era (1956) --- things start to get

bumpy, especially for cities and the poor – Boston, Portland, New Orleans

• ISTEA (1991) – bringing in other modes, clean air, and planning

• TEA-21/SAFETEA-LU (1998, 2005) – stay the course,

• 2009 - $286 billion and what have we got?

What if…• $286 Billion was directed towards:

– Reinvesting in existing communities and maintaining our past investments

– Redeveloping and revitalizing communities because these activities are both a transportation and a climate solution

– Giving metro areas a fair share– Bringing balance to transportation systems within existing

communities so that biking, walking and public transportation are attractive options rather than the last resort.

• Transportation would become an engine for Redevelopment rather than an engine of disinvestment

What’s different this time?• Transportation Fiscal Crisis

– Robbing from Peter (transit) to pay Paul (hwy)– Recession and stimulus– Crisis in the states

• Political change in leadership– House and Senate dynamics– In the White House and at US DOT

• Trends and Voices for Change– More at stake: economy, climate, population growth and demographic

changes, energy costs

• Agreement that it’s broke

Actually, A Lot

A National Wake-Up Call

– Safety and security– Energy security and oil dependency– Growing traffic congestion– Rising energy costs– Global climate change crisis

Affordability: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Transportation Ballot Measures2006 - 2007

Statewide

Local Measure(s)

Statewide & Local Measures

Almost 70% of State & Local Transportation Measures Approved

Evidence of Change

Source: Center for Transportation Excellence

Taking it to the StreetsOver 18000 schools now have a Safe Routes to School program. 43 states are making investments to support these programs.

Source: Thunderbird Alliance

Local Climate for Change

States with Climate Action Plans

Cities that have Signed USCM Climate Protection Agreement

Source: Pew Center for Climate Change (state map),

US Conference of Mayors (cities map)

How Do We Make the Most of the Opportunities?

Articulating a Vision: Greensboro, NC--Southside Neighborhood

Annual tax base in this area went from $400K before redevelopment (1995) to over $10 million after redevelopment (2003).

Southside benefited from a general downtown renaissance, but also helped to give momentum to that turnaround.

Articulating a Vision

• Clear contrasts between building styles

Doing the Analysis

More networking

• Arterial spacing < 1 mile (fewer lanes per street?)

• Public is beginning to link development patterns to quality of life

Development Patterns affect Quality of Life

• Different patterns of development may help save on school transportation costs

Source: www.urban-advantage.co

Explanation of Existing Conditions

Above ground utilities

WIDE STREETS

Narrow SidewalksAuto-oriented

development

No parking in rear

Single use district

Low Density Development

Source: www.urban-advantage.co

Development Techniques to Fix It

Street Trees

Bike Lanes

Mixed-Use (Residential

and Commercial)

High Density Development

TOD District

Below-ground utilities

Pedestrian-friendly area

Median for light rail

Outreach & Education

…And Still More Outreach

National Vacant Properties Conference

• Educational Forum attended by 600 people

Privacy in front, zero-step entry at rear

Taking Stock• Our issues now frame the debate

in many parts of the country.

• There is a coherent message and a well articulated set of design and policy techniques.

• A great deal of public education has occurred.

• An increasing # of example projects on the ground.

• An increasing # policy examples “on the ground.”

Taking Stock (cont.)• There is increasing acceptance

in the private sector.

• There is wide agreement that the market for SG is at least 1/3 and likely to rise.

• We can count a number of relatively new supporters: health advocates, environmental groups, alt transportation advocates, local leaders, developers, architects, housing organizations, realtors, state level groups, and others.

But…Are We Prepared for Our Success?

• As a result of our work, and macro-trends which puts the wind at our back, big opportunities exist now that didn’t ten years ago.

• We need to do a different kind of work to take advantage of them.

• We need to create, and focus political will on a specific change agenda.

We Need to Create, and Focus Political Will on a Specific

Change Agenda.

Concern• Health Impact Assessments• New Rehab Rules• Reform Transportation and Parking Rules• Brownfield Tax Credits• Change State Investment Patterns• Stream Buffers• Affordable Housing Fund

Outreach & Education

…And Still More Outreach

National Vacant Properties Conference

• Educational Forum attended by 600 people

Another Concern• Health Impact Assessments• New Rehab Rules• Reform Transportation and Parking Rules• Brownfield Tax Credits• Change State Investment Patterns• Stream Buffers• Affordable Housing Fund• Green Jobs and Green Buildings

New Transit

Exporting OR’s Measure 37

• Kelo-Plus strategy

• “Capitalize on the tremendous public and political momentum generated in the aftermath of the Kelo ruling…”

Takings Initiatives States

Transportation for America; for its people, communities, environment and economies

T4AmericaMaking Transportation Work for the America in the 21st Century

• Launching a new national reform campaign• Goal of Re-energizing, Re-building, Re-

engaging the Progressive Transportation Advocacy Movement to Influence Federal Policy

• Build and support state and local efforts

• 2008 – let the games begin– Recommendations from Federal Study commissions

– Bankruptcy of Highway Trust Fund

– Administration position revealed

– Congressional Hearings and Action

– Presidential and Congressional Elections

• 2009 – new leadership– SAFETEA-LU Bill expires

– New Congress and New Administration

Inform the Debate

What is success?• Re-envision purpose and outcomes:

– The role of transportation investments is to reduce our nation’sdependency on oil, to lower household transportation costs, to provide mobility options to all, to reduce our carbon footprint VS. just reduce congestion

• Double transit ridership, • Reduce VMT growth by 50%, • Restructure and empower metropolitan decision making, • Create a national intermodal program for large scale investments, • Explicitly allow transportation funding for land use and community

development programs

Make Our Voices Heard

• Reform from below: strengthen and support state, local, and metro efforts

• Reform from above:– At the Congressional level: Identify and grow our allies,

legislative proposals, and messengers– New Administration: Full plate – will transportation reform

be on it?

• Reform from within: draw connections

The system is broken, and broke

Where we want to be tomorrow• Engage with you to make reform a reality; in your

communities, states, and in Congress

T4America.org

Thank You

Geoffrey Andersonganderson@smartgrowthamerica.org

www.smartgrowthamerica.org