g.e.t smart - smart renewables: areva lawrence jones

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Lawrence E. Jones

Director, Strategy & Special Projects, Worldwide

AREVA T&D Inc.

Smart Renewables

WITA

May 6, 2010

Seattle, WA

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Focus on:

� The state of the Smart Renewables Industry in Washington

� Predictions for the future of the Smart Renewables Industry

� Business opportunities in the Smart Renewables Industry.

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple,

that’s creativity. ~ Charles Mingus, jazz musician

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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OLD EQUATIONS - NEW CONTRAINTS

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Understanding the Dynamics of our Time

We are living simultaneously living in the ages of:

� Uncertainty

� Globalization

� Complexity

� Smarts

� Connectedness

� Speed

� Mistrust

� Interface

� Attention Deficit

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Understanding the Dynamics of Change

TechnologyBusiness

Social

Political

Rates of Change

Time

Challenges to Solving Global Crises

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Keys to Smart and Intelligence

�Awareness – Sensing and measurement

�Communicate (Fast or Slow) – Data, Information,

Commands

�Reaction – Actuate and Respond (Fast or Slow)

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Main Problem

How to integrate the basic abilities of awarenessand reaction into a device or system with minimum

cost and complexity, and achieved other goals?

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Increasing the level of intelligence and integrationof information, communication, control technologies

in every of aspects (Generation, Delivery, and Consumption) of the electricity system

Creating a Smart Energy Ecosystem

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Enabling Technologies

Integrated Communications

DecisionSupportSystems

Advanced Control Technologies

Sensing, Metering and Measurement

Advanced Grid Components

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Renewables Energy Resources

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

12 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

Slide courtesy of Rhys Roth, Climate Solutions

Renewable Projects in the Northwest in 1998

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Slide courtesy of Rhys Roth, Climate Solutions

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GERMANYOffshore substation for the Alpha Ventuswind farm

Areva T&D references across the world

DENMARK – EnerginetDistributed Gen. Management systems

IRELAND – SegnessDynamic Line Rating

EDP HorizonDistributed Gen.

UK – Robin Rigg2 offshore substations & onshore grid connection

FRANCE – RTEWind Gen. Control

FRANCEConversion substation and grid connection of a 7MW solar PV park

FRANCEAreva T&D has connected

30% of the French wind farms

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Energinet.dk (Denmark)RTE (France)EDP (Portugal & Spain)Eirgrid (Ireland)Hawaii (USA)Midwest ISO (USA)

REForecast

Plan

REEstimation

REGeneration

Control &

Dispatch

RENetworkSecurity UI

Points

Modelling

Simulator

Historian

Examples of AREVA Renewable Projects

- Integration with Power Grid Operations

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Predictions the Future -Navigating Uncertainty and Spotting Opportunities

As for the future, your task is not to foresee it but to enable it. ~ Antoine de Saint-Exupery, French Aviator

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Global Crises – How to Avert the Perfect Storm?

� Climate Change

� Economy

� Energy

� Food

� Population

� Water

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Global Crises Present Opportunities

Catalyst for Market Transition and Industry Transformation

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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The World @ Night in 2009

1.6 billion people lack access to electricityMore than 1 billion people lack access to clean drinking water

3 billion people live on less than $2 per day

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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How will the World @ Night look in 20XX?

?? ?

?

??

??

? ?

?

?

?

?

How to Meet the Energy Needs of ?? Billion People in a Sustainable Way?

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Meeting a Common Threat –World Leaders Reacted to the Financial Crisis

… but what about Climate Change?Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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International Race to a Low Carbon Economy

Low

Carbon

Economy

USA

&

Canada

EU

China

&

India

“If they invest in 21st – century technologies and we invest in 20th –century technologies, they will win.” David Sandowlow, Assistant Sec. for Policy &

International Affairs, US Department of Energy. (Washington Post, Oct. 25, 2009

Note: Several other countries have embarked on Smart Grid Initiatives, e.g. Australia, Brazil, New Zealand

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Global Investment in Renewable 2004 - 2008

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Renewable Power Capacities, Developing World, EU and Top Six Countries in 2008

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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27 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Energy Trivia

“I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we

tackle that?”

Who Said this to Henry Ford whose popular cars were driving up the demand for gasoline

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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1931 – Today is May 6, 2010

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Solar PV - Existing World Capacity, 1995 - 2008

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Wind Power - Existing World Capacity, 1996 - 2008

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Policy Matters – The Danish Experience

Denmark - 1980 Denmark – today

2025 Danish Government target :

50 % of gross energy consumption to be supplied from renewable sources

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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World Wind Energy in 2008

- Increasing Growth Rates -

579817,3817,31682,86767676,7Australia14

495,27468051754,64397439,7Ireland15

10401309152813233520352Japan13

1224155917471227,44780478The Netherlands12

683146018461128,352302369Canada11

1022171621301034,473202862Portugal10

31283136312561,1353160Denmark9

13531962,92389937,6898,93287,9United Kingdom8

752,215672455838,794934044France7

1718,32123,42726,17371009,93736Italy6

443062707850422,117379587India5

1266259959125106,5629812210China4

10027,91163015145310,51595,216704,3Spain3

18427,52062222247,417.41655,423903,8Germany2

91491160316818,8249,78351,225170USA1

Total Installed Capacity

2005

[MW]

Total Installed Capacity

2006

[MW]

Total Installed Capacity

2007

[MW]

Position 2007

Growth Rate in

2008

[%]

Added Capacity

2008 [MW]

Total Installed Capacity

2008 [MW]

CountryPosition

2008

Source: World Wind Energy Report, 2008. www.wwindea.org

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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States Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

Source: DSIRE January 2010

ME 30% 2000 10% 2017 in new RE

NH 23.8% 2025

MA 15 % 2020

RI 16 % 2020

NY 24 % 2013

CT 23 % 2020

NJ 22,5 % 2021

MD 20% 2022

DC 20% 2020

WA 15% 2020

OR 25% 2025

CA 20% 2010

NV 20% 2015

NM 20% 2020

AZ 15% 2025

CO 20% 2020

TX 5,880 MW 2015

MT 15% 2015

ND 10% 2015

MN 25% 2025

WI 10% 2015

IL 25% 2025

IA 105 MW

MI 10% 2015

PA 18% 2020

VA 15% 2025

NC 12,5% 2021

VE 20% 2017

SD 10% 2015

UT 20% 2025 KS 20%

2020

HI 40% 2030

WV 25% 2025

29 states & DC have RPS

6 states have goals

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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US Wind Power Installation to date (MW)

Source: AWEA Jan 2010

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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2009 – A record year for the US Wind Power industry Wind Power

installed capacity (MW)

In 2009 the U.S. wind industry broke all previous records by installing close to 10,000 megawatts of new generating capacity thanks to the Stimulus Plan.

The total installed capacity in the U.S. is now over 35,000 MW

In 2009, 38 manufacturing facilities were brought online, announced or expanded.

As new turbine orders continue to come in slowly (lack of long-term policy + excess in supply), some manufacturing production is running at significantly decreased levels compared to 2008

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Wind Power in Generation Queues (MW)- The Size of this Queue is Indicative of the Future Growth Potential -

Iowa14,569

Minnesota20,011

New Mexico14,136

North Dakota11,493

Penn.3,391

South Dakota30,112

Oklahoma14,677

Illinois16,284

Ohio3,683

Kansas13,191

Wisconsin908

Michigan2,518

WV1,045

New York8,000

VT155

Total 311,155 MW

MA492

Montana2,327

NJ1416

Under 1000 MW 1,000 MW-8,000 MWOver 8,000 MWMissouri

2,050

IN8,426

Maine1,398

NH396

RI347

DE450

MD810

VA820

Arkansas210

Texas63,504

Arizona7,268

California18,629

Colorado16,602

Idaho446

Nebraska3,726

Nevada3,913

Oregon9,361

Utah1,052

Washington5,831

Wyoming7,870

Source: AWEA

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Smart Renewables: UNCERTAINTY = OPPORTUNITIES

Drive and Execute a Focused

Renewable Energy Strategy Climb Up and Shake the Tree of Opportunities

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Overview of the Electric System

More than 100 years Old – But Not Much has Changed in

the Physics and Economics of Operation … Until NowLawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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The grid of today

AC

138kV

230kV

400V 400V

13.8kV

500kV

400V

13.8kV 13.8kV

765kV

345kV

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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The grid of the future?

AC

DC

600kV / 800 kV

Bulk power import using UHVDC

=~

150kV150kV

=

~

Offshore

wind farm

Onshore wind farm

=

~

BESS

500V

PVFuel Cell

=

=

10kV

=

~

STATCOM

10kV

=

~

STATCOM

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

150kV150kV

50kV 50kV

=

=

=

=

10kV

138kV

230kV

400V 400V

13.8kV

500kV

400V

13.8kV 13.8kV

765kV

345kV

=

=

500V

=

~

PHEV Charging

station

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Understanding the Renewable Energy Landscape

Original Equipment

Manufacturers

Original Equipment

Manufacturers

REDevelopers

REDevelopers

RE Asset Owner

RE Asset Owner RE OperatorsRE Operators

Transmission System

Operator

Transmission System

Operator

Distribution System

Operator

Distribution System

OperatorCustomerCustomer

Some Key issues

• Cost effectiveness

• Reliability

• Controllability

• Efficient regulatory and EPC risks management

• Sound decision-making process

• Cost effectiveness

• ROCE maximization

• Generation mix optimization

• CO2 emissions quota compliance

• Reliability

• Controllability

• Supervision

• Generation portfolio optimization

• Energy generation accounting (certificates)

• Energy storage

• Reliability

• Controllability

• On-line stability calculation

• Look-ahead analysis

• What-if scenarios

• Network planning

• Reliability

• Controllability

• What-if scenarios

• Network planning

• Disaster recovery

• Green certificates accounting

• CO2 emissions quota compliance

• Energy efficiency action plans

• Energy storage / back-up source

• DERs

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Decision Support SystemsVisualization

Reliability & Economics

Asset Utilization

System and DataIntegration

Systems Variability

Training & Knowledge Retention

System Controllability& Observability

System Issues Related to Renewable Energy Integration

Demand Response & Energy Storage

Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA

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Copyright Lawrence E. Jones, Perth Australia, 2003

Thank Youlawrence.jones@areva-td.com