global volcano disaster resilience. an integrated framework demonstration of the global disaster...

THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL:

AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

FRAMEWORK 1A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE

ON GLOBAL DISASTERS

AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

1. SCOPEFROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS

TO A DISASTER

TO

DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES

THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF

“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, floods, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the community is not ready.   

THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS

• PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting)

• COMMUNITIES• RECURRING EVENTS

(AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

PEOPLE = INNOVATION PEOPLE = INNOVATION

200 NATIONS AND 7+

BILLION PEOPLE

200 NATIONS AND 7+

BILLION PEOPLE

NORTH AMERICA

NORTH AMERICA

CARIBBEAN BASIN

CARIBBEAN BASIN

SUB-SAHARAAFRICA

SUB-SAHARAAFRICA

MEDITER-RANEAN

MEDITER-RANEAN

ISLAND NATIONS ISLAND NATIONS

ASIA ASIA

SOUTHAMERICASOUTH

AMERICA

EUROPEEUROPE

INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE

SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER,

AND SOME WON’T

THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM

• 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT

THE WORLD)

LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS

LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS

• IGNORANCE• APATHY• DISCIPLINARY

BOUNDARIES• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)

• GOVERNMENT• DWELLINGS• SCHOOLS• HEALTH CARE

FACILITIES• BUSINESSES• INFRA-

STRUCTURE• ETC

EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE

INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE

THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM

• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

• ETC.

RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES

RECURRING FLOODS

RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES

CURRENT KNOWLEDGE

IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,

STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS

HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

FRAMEWORK 2A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION

OF KNOWLEDGE FORTHE END GAME OF

DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

Anticipatory Preparedness

Adoption and Implementation of Realistic Building Codes & Standards

Timely Early Warning and Evacuation

Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services)

Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

YOUR COMMUNITY

YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES

AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• FLOODS • SEVERE WIND

STORMS• EARTHQUAKES …

ETC

A DISASTER

CAUSES

FAILURES IN POLICIES

FAILURES IN PRACTICES

COUNTER MEASURES

• BEST POLICIES• BEST PRACTICES

DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE END GAME CHALLENGEBEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES

INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES

WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,

AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE

PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS

BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL

CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY

AND STRATEGIC PLANNING

BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL

CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY

AND STRATEGIC PLANNING

THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS ---

a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS

USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTER

LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A”

(Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)

INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS

USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTER

LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A”

(Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER

RESILIENCE

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER

RESILIENCE

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO

• COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES

• MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• HAZARD

ASSESSMENT • RISK

ASSESSMENT

• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO

• COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES

• MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• HAZARD

ASSESSMENT • RISK

ASSESSMENT

MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES

.

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE• PROTECTION

• CONTROL

• AVIATION SAFETY

• PURPOSE• PROTECTION

• CONTROL

• AVIATION SAFETY

• TECHNIQUE• DESIGN ROOFS

FOR WET ASH • LAVA AND/OR

LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS

• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

• TECHNIQUE• DESIGN ROOFS

FOR WET ASH • LAVA AND/OR

LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS

• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH

PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH

• A LOAD OF WET ASH ON A ROOF IS TEN TIMES HEAVIER THAN A LOAD OF WET SNOW.

• A LOAD OF WET ASH ON A ROOF IS TEN TIMES HEAVIER THAN A LOAD OF WET SNOW.

AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH

AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH

• JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.

• JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.

LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL

LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL

• LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE-VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN

• LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE-VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE• COMPUTER

MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR A SPECIFIC HAZARD (E.G., ASH DISTRIBUTION)

• PURPOSE• COMPUTER

MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR A SPECIFIC HAZARD (E.G., ASH DISTRIBUTION)

• TECHNIQUE• REAL TIME

MONITORING• ERUPTION

HISTORY OF A VOLCANO

• TECHNIQUE• REAL TIME

MONITORING• ERUPTION

HISTORY OF A VOLCANO

EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES

EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES

• PRECURSORS TO EXPECT

• LIKELY EXPLOSIVENESS

• LIKELY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS

• PRECURSORS TO EXPECT

• LIKELY EXPLOSIVENESS

• LIKELY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS

COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION

LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL

LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL

• LAHARS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED FROM OCCUR-RING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.

• LAHARS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED FROM OCCUR-RING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE• URBAN PLANNING

• EVACUATION

• PURPOSE• URBAN PLANNING

• EVACUATION

• TECHNIQUE• MAPS: LAVA

AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS

• COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN

• TECHNIQUE• MAPS: LAVA

AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS

• COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN

EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI EVACUATION PLAN

• 11,000 from three districts were evacuated to schools and other designated emergency shelters.

MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE

• Many citizens chose to evacuate, as was ordered.

• Many villagers remembered the 1994 disaster and did not want to repeat it.

MANY CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE

• Many citizens chose not to evacuate because shelters are boring and they needed to provide for livestock and tend crops.