horizon scanning - uk parliament · what is horizon scanning? • horizon scanning is the...

Horizon scanningDr Marco PalominoProf Richard Owen

Outline

• What is horizon scanning?• How do we scan the horizon?

– Web‐based horizon scanning

• What have we found so far?

What is horizon scanning?

• Horizon scanning is the systematic search for incipient trends, opportunities, challenges and constraints (henceforth ‘issues’) that might affect the probability of achieving societal goals and objectives, such as those related to the maintenance of biological diversity, in the longer term (Sutherland, et al., 2012).

Objectives• The objectives of horizon scanning are to anticipate issues, 

accumulate reliable data and knowledge about them, and thus inform policy making and implementation (Sutherland, et al., 2012).

Approaches• Traditional approach: Emerging 

issues are identified through meetings and informal networking.

• Web‐based approach: Emerging issues are identified through the World Wide Web.

• Web‐based approach: Augments personal interaction with the use of electronic information sources, in particular the Web.

Web‐based approach

Web-basedinformation

retrievedand / orreceived

Informationextracted ,

categorised, analysed

and archived

Web‐based approach

Web-basedinformation

retrievedand / orreceived

Informationextracted ,

categorised, analysed

and archived

Iteration

Web‐based approach

Web-basedinformation

retrievedand / orreceived

Informationextracted ,

categorised, analysed

and archived

Informationcommunicated:

report, newsletter

Iteration

Horizon scanning

Web‐based approach

Web-basedinformation

retrievedand / orreceived

Informationextracted ,

categorised, analysed

and archived

Informationcommunicated:

report, newsletter

Further tools: e.g., risk and opportunity

analysis; scenarios

Iteration

Decision support: e.g., investment;

resource allocation;

policy

Horizon scanning

Web‐based approach

Web-basedinformation

retrievedand / orreceived

Informationextracted ,

categorised, analysed

and archived

Informationcommunicated:

report, newsletter

Further tools: e.g., risk and opportunity

analysis; scenarios

Iteration

Decision support: e.g., investment;

resource allocation;

policy

Horizon scanning

Palomino, M., Bardsley, S., Bown, K., De Lurio, J., Ellwood,P., Holland‐Smith, D., Huggins, B., Vincenti, A., Woodroof,H., Owen, R. (2012, September). "Web‐based HorizonScanning: Concepts and Practice". Foresight, 14(5).

What have we found so far?

Pharmaceuticals• Sanofi will begin large‐scale production of a partially synthetic 

version of artemisinin, a chemical critical to making antimalariadrug.

• Scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, are moving forward with a new non‐profit to explore how to cheaply get synthetic biology‐created antimalarial drugs to the world’s neediest populations.

Biofuels: Butanol

• Synthetic biology firms, such as Gevo and UK’s Green Biologics, are now scaling up production of different forms of butanol, which, when compared to ethanol, they claim stores more energy per litre, is less corrosive to pipelines, is more easily separated from water and can be blended into gasoline (petrol) at higher concentrations before vehicle engines are damaged.

Carbon capture

• Codexis, CO2 Systems, Alcoa and the US Department of Energy have teamed up to increase the carbon capture ability of natural carbonic anhydrase by 2 million‐fold, which they claim could reduce scrubber column size by 95%, chemical use by 80%, and capital expenditures for post‐combustion carbon capture systems by $146 million.

Decontamination

• Caffeine has become an important water pollutant.

• E. coli bacteria genetically engineered by researchers at the University of Texas, Austin, and the University of Iowa, can live solely on caffeine.

• Cons: Release of GE organisms into the environment.