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EXPLORING THE WOOLWICH EFFECT
INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC DIALOGUE/UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM, JUNE 20 2013
Dr Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Let’s explore three assumptions…
1. Woolwich has triggered an anti-Islam backlash
-Not just numbers, but wider reservoir of hostility?
2. That the public response has been coherent
-But how have different social groups and generations reacted?
3. Woolwich has triggered support for the far right
- Does online social media growth signal broader support?
Data and Methods
• Based on two surveys: (1) November 20-21 2012; (2) within 48 hours of Woolwich
• Survey based on random sample of 1,839 respondents from @YouGov online panel
• Weighted to profile of eligible UK voters on basis of internet access, age, gender,
social class, region, party ID and newspaper readership
• Any biases introduced by method extremely small and offset by larger sample size
• Surveys remain exploratory, should not be viewed as definitive
• Thanks @JoeTwyman and @YouGov
• So what did we find….
At first glance, Woolwich appears to have increased expectations of violent group conflicts….
Agree Neither agree/
disagree
Disagree Don't know
33
20
41
5
40
19
36
4
% agreeing – ‘Violent conflict between white majority and ethnic minorities in Britain is largely inevitable’
Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)
…and as before, these expectations of conflict are linked specifically to Muslim
communities….% agreeing
There will be clash of civilizations between white Brits and SIKHS
There will be clash of civilizations between white Brits and HINDUS
There will be clash of civilizations between white Brits and BLACK
BRITS
There will be clash of civilizations between white Brits and MUSLIMS
12
13
20
50
17
20
25
59
Post-Woolwich Pre-Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)
But at the same time, wider public attitudes toward Muslims held steady after Woolwich (albeit at
worrying levels)…% agreeing
41
62
43 3640
6348
38
Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)
In fact, after Woolwich citizens were more likely to see Muslims as compatible with British way of life…
Net agree Net disagree Don't know
24
48
7
33
40
5
Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)
And while far more overwhelming, people generally stable in views about whether ‘British people of all
races’ get on well together
Net agree Net disagree Don't know
44
25
4
42
27
4
Pre Woolwich Post Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)
So IF we did want to tackle some of this,
where should we be looking?
55
30
3943
36
13
64
41
53 54
43
23
ABC1 C2DE
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)
…and a clear opportunity in a generational divide…
28
48
19
28
36
2430
51
70
47
6257
38
52
18-24 60 and above
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)
So, what effect did Woolwich have on the
far right?
Taken from earlier work of M Goodwin, see @GoodwinMJ
But what was the effect of Woolwich on the group?
How much, if anything, do you know about the English Defence League?
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)
Heard of them and know exactly what
they stand for
Heard of them but unsure what they
stand for
Never heard of them
Don't know
33
42
19
6
42 41
12
4
Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich
But did Woolwich fuel direct support for the far right?
How likely would you be to consider joining the EDL?
77
9
1
13
84
61
9
Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)
… what about indirect sympathy for the group?
Thinking about the EDL, which of these comes closest to your view?
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)
Agree with EDL values & methods
Agree with EDL values but not
methods
Do not agree with EDL values or
methods
Don't know
3
21
47
29
3
22
52
23
Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)
Was there broader national support for retaliatory action?
Some people are planning to hold counter-demos against Muslim terrorism. What’s your view?
Asked to a random sample of 912 respondents
20
51
227
The English Defence League is planning to hold counter-demos against Muslim terrorism. What’s
your view?
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)
20
51
227
17
60
176
Counter-Demos Demos by far right
What does it all mean?
• Picture far more complex, and in some way more positive
• Inconsistency of British public opinion a challenge
• No consistent and sharp shift in attitudes to anti-Islam backlash
• But a generational divide is an opportunity: will we seize it?
• But let’s not kid ourselves – big challenges remain
• A deepening rather than widening of far right support
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