july 2012 poll presentation

July 2012

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July 2012 Poll Information

•Field Dates: July 16-18

•Number: 600 Likely 2012 General Election

Voters

•Margin of Error: +/- 4%

•Conducted By: National Research Inc.

Party Registration

Republican 33%

Democrat 45%

Unaffiliated 22%

If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative in

your political beliefs?

19%

45%

31%

5% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jan '11

Feb '11

Mar '11

May '11

Jul '11

Sep '11

Oct '11

Jan '12

Feb '12

Mar '12

May '12

July '12

Liberal Conservative Moderate DK/Refused

Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have

they gotten off on the wrong track?

34% 33% 36% 31% 28% 25% 23% 27% 24% 24% 25%

54% 53% 50% 57% 60% 62% 63%

57% 58% 62% 63%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan '11 Feb '11

Mar '11

May '11

Jul '11 Sep '11

Oct '11 Jan '12 Feb '12

May '12

Jul '12

Right Direction Wrong Track

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President

of the United States?

45%

50%

47%

51%

44% 41% 46% 43% 48%

49% 51%

48% 49%

45%

50%

45%

53% 54% 50% 53% 49%

46% 46%

50%

Jan '11

Feb '11

Mar '11

May '11

Jul '11

Sep '11

Oct '11

Jan '12

Feb '12

Mar '12

May '12

Jul '12

Approve Disapprove

50% 48%

46%

47% 49%

39% 39%

48%

45%

48%

Sep '11 Feb '12 Mar '12 May '12 Jul '12

Romney Obama

If the election for President of the United States were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote…

49% 48% 48% 47%

30% 32% 38%

37%

6%

20% 18%

12% 10%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Feb '12 Mar '12 May '12 Jul '12

McCrory Dalton Howe Und

If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for

whom would you vote?

If the election for State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the…

44% 39% 39% 40% 40% 38% 36% 38% 40% 43% 45%

36% 38% 37% 34% 36% 31%

36% 36% 37% 41% 42%

6% 8% 7% 4%

7% 6% 6% 7% 3% 3% 2%

13% 14% 15% 22% 17%

23% 20% 17%

17% 12% 10%

Jan '11 Feb '11 Mar '11 May '11 Jul '11 Sep '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Mar '12 May '12 Jul '12

Republican Democrat Neither Don't Know

Favorability

Barack Obama

47%

49%

50%

47%

48% 48%

48%

50%

45%

46%

47%

48%

49%

50%

51%

Oct '11 Feb '12 May '12 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable

Mitt Romney

47%

50%

42%

44%

38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52%

May '12 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable

Pat McCrory

48% 51%

20% 24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

May '12 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable

Walter Dalton

13%

33% 30%

9%

21% 21%

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Oct '11 May '12 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable

Tea Party

34%

44%

39% 39% 37%

41%

37%

41% 41% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

May '11 Jul '11 Sep '11 Oct '11 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable

When I mention President Barack Obama, what are the first few things that come to your

mind?

7%

8%

8%

16%

17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Socialist

Health Care

Fiscally Irresponsible

Ineffective

Effective

Verbatim

And when I mention Mitt Romney, what are the first few things that come to your mind?

9%

11%

12%

13%

15%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Leadership

Rich

Dishonest

Out of touch

Business Leader

Verbatim

If the election for North Carolina Supreme Court were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you

vote if the candidates were: Paul Newby or Sam Ervin?

17%

22%

7% 6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

May '12 Jul '12 Ervin Newby

In your own words, what would you say are the most important attributes a North Carolina

Supreme Court Justice should posses?

5%

5%

14%

14%

15%

47%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Not Pollitcally Motivated

Moral Standards

Know Law

Impartial

Uphold Constitution

Fair/Honest

Verbatim

In May 2012, North Carolina voters voted that Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that

shall be valid or recognized in this State. Do you agree or disagree with that vote?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Agree

Disagree

63%

34%

Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or

recognized in this State.

62% 62% 64% 61% 63%

31% 30% 30% 32% 34%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Sep '11 Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 Jul '12

Support Oppose

A few days later, President Obama made a statement saying that he supported recognizing a union between two men or two

women as equal to a marriage between a man and a woman. Do you favor or oppose the president's stance?

33%

60%

Favor Oppose

12%

32% 55%

More Likely Less Likely No Difference

And does knowing that President Obama supports gay marriage make you more likely to vote for him, less likely

to vote for him, or does it make no difference to you?

Recently Governor Perdue vetoed the state budget passed by the legislature. Please tell me which of the following budgets you prefer

The State Legislature's vetoed budget which increased state spending on education gave state employees their first pay raise in 4 years and did not raise taxes.

Governor Perdue's budget plan which raised taxes to make up for federal stimulus funds that went to education and are ending this year, gave state employees larger pay raises and increased overall state spending.

- OR -

57%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Legislature's Governor's

Do you think your family will be better off or worse off under the health reform law?

0%

20%

40%

60%

30%

43%

13%

Better Off Worse Off Don't Know

The Supreme Court has ruled that the key provisions of the new federal (______________ ) are constitutional. Do you

agree or disagree with the Supreme Court decision?

36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48%

Affordable Care Act

Obamacare

40%

45% 42%

47%

Agree Disagree

Split Sample

As you may know, ( ) includes a provision that will require all Americans who do not have health insurance to purchase it. If they

choose to not get health insurance they will incur a penalty, which the US Supreme Court has deemed a "tax." Do you support or oppose that

provision?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Affordable Care Act

Obamacare

36% 36%

58% 55%

Support Oppose

Split Sample

And when voting for our next president, how important is their view on healthcare reform to

your overall decision to vote for them?

87%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Important Not Important

And in your own words, what would you say is the single best thing the North Carolina legislature

should do to improve the economy and create jobs?

8%

8%

9%

9%

10%

20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Cut Spending

Support Education

Create Jobs

Business Incentives

Keep Jobs Local

Lower Taxes

Verbatim

Thinking about the economy, in your opinion, how much longer do you think it will take for the economy to improve and the current recession to end? If you think the current

recession has ended just say so.

1% 4%

21%

62%

3% 0%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Apr '09 Oct '09 Jan '11 May '11 Sep '11 Mar '12 Jul '12 Less Than 6 Months Six Month To 1 Year 1 to 2 years Over 2 Years Recession Has Ended

Employment Status

32% 26%

12% 11%

10% 6%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Retired

Work for Private Company

Unemployed

Self Employed

Work for Government

Homemaker

Don’t Know/Refused

In terms of your current employment status, would you say you…

11%

26%

10% 6%

32%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jul '11 Sep '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 May '12 Jul '12

Are Self Employed Work for a Private Company Work for Government Are a Spouse Are Retired Are Unemployed

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Age

3%

13%

28% 24% 23%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

18-25 26-40 41-55 56-65 66+ Refused

Annual Household Income

35% 21%

16% 13%

8% 5%

2%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

$50k or less

Don’t Know/Refused

$50k-$75k

$75k-$100k

$100k-$150k

$150k-$200k

Over $200k

Ethnicity

75%

22%

3%

White/Caucasian

African-American/Black

Hispanic/Latino

Highest Level of Schooling

26% 26%

24% 17%

5%

3%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

4 yr College

2 yr College

High School

Post Grad

< High School

Refused

Gender

Men 48% Women 52%

Geographic Area

22%

21%

19%

14%

13%

12%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Triangle

Charlotte

Piedmont Triad

Western

Southeast

Northeast