july 2012 poll presentation
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July 2012 Poll PresentationTRANSCRIPT
July 2012
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July 2012 Poll Information
•Field Dates: July 16-18
•Number: 600 Likely 2012 General Election
Voters
•Margin of Error: +/- 4%
•Conducted By: National Research Inc.
Party Registration
Republican 33%
Democrat 45%
Unaffiliated 22%
If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative in
your political beliefs?
19%
45%
31%
5% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan '11
Feb '11
Mar '11
May '11
Jul '11
Sep '11
Oct '11
Jan '12
Feb '12
Mar '12
May '12
July '12
Liberal Conservative Moderate DK/Refused
Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have
they gotten off on the wrong track?
34% 33% 36% 31% 28% 25% 23% 27% 24% 24% 25%
54% 53% 50% 57% 60% 62% 63%
57% 58% 62% 63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan '11 Feb '11
Mar '11
May '11
Jul '11 Sep '11
Oct '11 Jan '12 Feb '12
May '12
Jul '12
Right Direction Wrong Track
Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President
of the United States?
45%
50%
47%
51%
44% 41% 46% 43% 48%
49% 51%
48% 49%
45%
50%
45%
53% 54% 50% 53% 49%
46% 46%
50%
Jan '11
Feb '11
Mar '11
May '11
Jul '11
Sep '11
Oct '11
Jan '12
Feb '12
Mar '12
May '12
Jul '12
Approve Disapprove
50% 48%
46%
47% 49%
39% 39%
48%
45%
48%
Sep '11 Feb '12 Mar '12 May '12 Jul '12
Romney Obama
If the election for President of the United States were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote…
49% 48% 48% 47%
30% 32% 38%
37%
6%
20% 18%
12% 10%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Feb '12 Mar '12 May '12 Jul '12
McCrory Dalton Howe Und
If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for
whom would you vote?
If the election for State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the…
44% 39% 39% 40% 40% 38% 36% 38% 40% 43% 45%
36% 38% 37% 34% 36% 31%
36% 36% 37% 41% 42%
6% 8% 7% 4%
7% 6% 6% 7% 3% 3% 2%
13% 14% 15% 22% 17%
23% 20% 17%
17% 12% 10%
Jan '11 Feb '11 Mar '11 May '11 Jul '11 Sep '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Mar '12 May '12 Jul '12
Republican Democrat Neither Don't Know
Favorability
Barack Obama
47%
49%
50%
47%
48% 48%
48%
50%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
Oct '11 Feb '12 May '12 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable
Mitt Romney
47%
50%
42%
44%
38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52%
May '12 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable
Pat McCrory
48% 51%
20% 24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
May '12 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable
Walter Dalton
13%
33% 30%
9%
21% 21%
0% 5%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Oct '11 May '12 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable
Tea Party
34%
44%
39% 39% 37%
41%
37%
41% 41% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
May '11 Jul '11 Sep '11 Oct '11 Jul '12 Favorable Unfavorable
When I mention President Barack Obama, what are the first few things that come to your
mind?
7%
8%
8%
16%
17%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Socialist
Health Care
Fiscally Irresponsible
Ineffective
Effective
Verbatim
And when I mention Mitt Romney, what are the first few things that come to your mind?
9%
11%
12%
13%
15%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Leadership
Rich
Dishonest
Out of touch
Business Leader
Verbatim
If the election for North Carolina Supreme Court were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you
vote if the candidates were: Paul Newby or Sam Ervin?
17%
22%
7% 6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
May '12 Jul '12 Ervin Newby
In your own words, what would you say are the most important attributes a North Carolina
Supreme Court Justice should posses?
5%
5%
14%
14%
15%
47%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Not Pollitcally Motivated
Moral Standards
Know Law
Impartial
Uphold Constitution
Fair/Honest
Verbatim
In May 2012, North Carolina voters voted that Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that
shall be valid or recognized in this State. Do you agree or disagree with that vote?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Agree
Disagree
63%
34%
Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or
recognized in this State.
62% 62% 64% 61% 63%
31% 30% 30% 32% 34%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Sep '11 Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 Jul '12
Support Oppose
A few days later, President Obama made a statement saying that he supported recognizing a union between two men or two
women as equal to a marriage between a man and a woman. Do you favor or oppose the president's stance?
33%
60%
Favor Oppose
12%
32% 55%
More Likely Less Likely No Difference
And does knowing that President Obama supports gay marriage make you more likely to vote for him, less likely
to vote for him, or does it make no difference to you?
Recently Governor Perdue vetoed the state budget passed by the legislature. Please tell me which of the following budgets you prefer
The State Legislature's vetoed budget which increased state spending on education gave state employees their first pay raise in 4 years and did not raise taxes.
Governor Perdue's budget plan which raised taxes to make up for federal stimulus funds that went to education and are ending this year, gave state employees larger pay raises and increased overall state spending.
- OR -
57%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Legislature's Governor's
Do you think your family will be better off or worse off under the health reform law?
0%
20%
40%
60%
30%
43%
13%
Better Off Worse Off Don't Know
The Supreme Court has ruled that the key provisions of the new federal (______________ ) are constitutional. Do you
agree or disagree with the Supreme Court decision?
36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48%
Affordable Care Act
Obamacare
40%
45% 42%
47%
Agree Disagree
Split Sample
As you may know, ( ) includes a provision that will require all Americans who do not have health insurance to purchase it. If they
choose to not get health insurance they will incur a penalty, which the US Supreme Court has deemed a "tax." Do you support or oppose that
provision?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Affordable Care Act
Obamacare
36% 36%
58% 55%
Support Oppose
Split Sample
And when voting for our next president, how important is their view on healthcare reform to
your overall decision to vote for them?
87%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Important Not Important
And in your own words, what would you say is the single best thing the North Carolina legislature
should do to improve the economy and create jobs?
8%
8%
9%
9%
10%
20%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Cut Spending
Support Education
Create Jobs
Business Incentives
Keep Jobs Local
Lower Taxes
Verbatim
Thinking about the economy, in your opinion, how much longer do you think it will take for the economy to improve and the current recession to end? If you think the current
recession has ended just say so.
1% 4%
21%
62%
3% 0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Apr '09 Oct '09 Jan '11 May '11 Sep '11 Mar '12 Jul '12 Less Than 6 Months Six Month To 1 Year 1 to 2 years Over 2 Years Recession Has Ended
Employment Status
32% 26%
12% 11%
10% 6%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Retired
Work for Private Company
Unemployed
Self Employed
Work for Government
Homemaker
Don’t Know/Refused
In terms of your current employment status, would you say you…
11%
26%
10% 6%
32%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jul '11 Sep '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 May '12 Jul '12
Are Self Employed Work for a Private Company Work for Government Are a Spouse Are Retired Are Unemployed
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Age
3%
13%
28% 24% 23%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
18-25 26-40 41-55 56-65 66+ Refused
Annual Household Income
35% 21%
16% 13%
8% 5%
2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
$50k or less
Don’t Know/Refused
$50k-$75k
$75k-$100k
$100k-$150k
$150k-$200k
Over $200k
Ethnicity
75%
22%
3%
White/Caucasian
African-American/Black
Hispanic/Latino
Highest Level of Schooling
26% 26%
24% 17%
5%
3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
4 yr College
2 yr College
High School
Post Grad
< High School
Refused
Gender
Men 48% Women 52%
Geographic Area
22%
21%
19%
14%
13%
12%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Triangle
Charlotte
Piedmont Triad
Western
Southeast
Northeast