political report july/august 2010: aei's monthly poll compilation

8/7/2019 Political Report July/August 2010: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation

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Volume 6, Issue 7 July/August 2010

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The Summers of Our Discontent: 1994, 2006, and 2010

Rereading the polls from late summer 1994 suggests that pollsters saw a big change in the offing, but they were cautious

about the prospect of the first Republican takeover of the House in 40 years. In 2006, dissatisfaction with the Bush

administration and the war in Iraq foreshadowed substantial pick-ups by House Democrats. Below are some key indica-

tors from the summers of 1994, 2006, and today. According to Vital Statistics on Congress, there have been only four elec-

tions in the past half-century in which either party has gained more than 35 seats.

1994 Clinton 2006 Bush 2010 Obama

Presidents partys loss 54 D 30 R ?

(Number of seats)

Presidential approvalJuly 42% 40% 46%

August 39 42 ?

Satisfaction with way things are going

July 33% 33% 21%

August 28 ?

Congressional approval

June/July 27% 29% 20%

August 27 ?

Generic ballot Dem./Rep. Dem./Rep. Dem./Rep.

June 51% / 42% 54% / 38% 46% / 45%July 45% / 46% 51% / 41% 49% / 43%

Want most members

of Congress reelected Yes No Yes No Yes No

June 29% 57% 31% 56%

Early October 28% 56% 32 48 ? ?

Election enthusiasm by party

(Summer) 45%(R) / 30%(D)* 30%(R) / 46%(D) 56%(R) /42%(D)

Consumer confidence

July 89 85 67**

August 92 82 ?

Top issue

Summer Crime War with Iraq The economy

Top news story

Summer OJ Simpson Gas prices Oil spill

Note: *1994 enthusiasm poll from October. **July Consumer confidence rating is a preliminary rating.Source: Seat Loss (Vital Statistics on Congress 2008), Approval (Gallup), Satisfaction (Gallup), Congressional Approval (Gallup), Generic Ballot(Gallup), Most members reelection (PSRA/Pew), Enthusiasm (PSRA/Pew and Gallup), Consumer Confidence (University of Michigan), Top Issue(Gallup), Top News Story (PSRA/Pew).
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Election WatchCongresss approval continues to be low in all the polls. In the July NBC News/Wall Street Journalpoll, for example, only

22 percent approved of the job Congress was doing. Gallup noted in a recent release that Congresss ratings this year

rank among the lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year. The Gallup analysts also wrote that in the five

midterms in which Congresss ratings at the time of the election were below 50 percent, there was an average net changein seats of 29 from the presidents party to the opposition. Some election indicators are below.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Approve Disapprove

The way Republicans in Congress are handling their job 29% 59%

The way Democrats in Congress are handling their job 31% 59%

Source: Quinnipiac University, July 2010.

Q: Regardless of how you might vote in your own congressional district, do you think . . . ?

It is more important to . . . July 2010

Have the Democrats in charge ofCongress to help support Obamas policies 43%

Have the Republicans in charge of

Congress to act as a check on Obamas policies 51

Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: ABC/Washington Post, July 2010.

Q: Generally, what is more important to you this year . . . ?

June 2010 June 2006 October 1994

Having new faces in office is more important 41% 30% 31%

Having experienced people who know how

the government works 50 59 57

Source: PSRA/Pew, latest that of June 2010.

Q: If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you to vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress,

including your own representative, would you do this or not?

June 2010

Would vote to defeat and replace every single member

of Congress including your own representative 47%

Would not 50

Note: In March, those responses were 50 and 47 percent, respectively. Sample is registered voters.Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, June 2010.

Q: Will your vote for Congress this November . . . ?June 2010 June 2006

For Obama For Bush

Be a vote to send a signal of support 27% 21%

A signal of opposition 32 38

Not a signal either way 39 39

Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of June 2010.



The Primaries . . . Continue!Twenty-eight states have held their primaries for the 2010 elections. Though the primary season is more than halfway

over, there are still many races worth watching. Heres the schedule.

Looking ahead to November, Roll Callreported recently that the GOP will field candidates in 430 of 435 districts this

fall, a record for the party. Democrats, the paper reports, still hold the record for the most candidates on a general elec-tion ballot, 434 in 1958 and 1964. This year Democrats will not field challengers against more than 20 Republicans. The

overall numbers dont say much about the strength of each partys bench or the quality of individual candidates.

Remaining 2010 statewide primaries

August 3: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri

August 5: Tennessee

August 10: Colorado, Connecticut

August 17: Washington, Wyoming

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida

August 28: Louisiana

September 14: Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont,

WisconsinSeptember 18: Hawaii

The EconomyDeep distress about the economy is clear in all polls today. Gallup reports more broadly that dissatisfaction with the way

things are going in the country today is the lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year. Americans arent

confident that the stimulus has helped. Extending unemployment benefits has majority support in most polls. People dis-

approve of the way the president is handling the economy, but they arent confident that Republicans would do better.

Responses to questions about whether Washington should spend more to stimulate the economy or focus on reducing

the deficit vary depending on question wording.

Scoring the Stimulus

Q: Thinking about the economic stimulus passed by Congress last year, do you think . . . ?

The stimulus has Has not

Increased the federal budget deficit 66% 23%

Led to improvements in roads, bridges

and other infrastructure in your area 43 49

Helped keep unemployment from

getting even worse 35 57

Helped state and local governments

avoid layoffs and budget cuts 29 60

Source: PSRA/Pew, July 2010.

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research

Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar;

Michael Barone, Resident Fellow.

Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew

Rugg, Editor.

Interns: Lauren Hitt, Jane Makin.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

(continued on the next page)



Q: So far, do you think . . . ?

June 2010 April 2010

The governments stimulus package

has made the economy better 23% 32%Worse 18 18

Had no impact so far 56 44

Note: In a mid-July Time poll, 5 percent said the stimulus program helped the economy a lot, 38 percent some, 11 percent hurt it some, and11% hurt it a lot. Thirty-two percent said it didnt have much impact.Source: CBS, July 2010.

Q: So far, do you think . . . ?

The federal governments economic

stimulus plan has created a lot of new jobs 5%

Some 29

A few 23

Hardly any at all 40

Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, July 2010.

Q: Would you . . . ?

Favor additional spending for a second stimulus 24%

Oppose 67

Source: SRBI for Time, July 2010.

Unemployment Benefits Extension

Q: Because of the economic downturn, Congress has extended the period in which people can receive unemployment

benefits and is considering doing so again. Supporters say this will help those who cant find work. Opponents say this

adds too much to the federal budget deficit. Do you think . . . ?

Congress should approve another

extension of unemployment benefits 62%

Should not 36

Source: ABC/Washington Post, July 2010.

Q: Do you think Congress should . . .?

Extend unemployment benefits for people who

are currently out of work even if it means

increasing the budget deficit 52%

Should not 39

Source: CBS, July 2010.

Q: Long-term unemployment is near a record high. The government is considering again extending unemployment ben-

efits so that people could continue to receive payments for as long as 99 weeks, instead of the normal 26 week cut-off.That would add $34 billion to the deficit. Do you . . . ?

Favor extending unemployment benefits 47%

Oppose 49

Source: Selzer & Company/Bloomberg, July 2010.

(continued from the previous page)

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Perspectives on the Deficit

Q: If you were setting priorities for the government these days, would you . . . ?

July February July June

2010 2010 2009 2009

Place a higher priority on reducing

the budget deficit 51% 47% 38% 46

Spend more to help the economy recover 40 47 53 48

Note: Not all response categories are included.Source: PSRA/Pew, latest that of July 2010.

Q: Which comes closer to your own view? The federal government should . . .

Responses of

National Rep. Dem. Ind.

Spend money to create jobs, even if

it means increasing the budget deficit 46% 25% 63% 46%

Should not spend money to create jobs

and should instead focus on reducing

the budget deficit 47 72 27 46

Source: CBS, July 2010.

Q: Which of the following two statements comes closer to your point of view?

The president and Congress should worry more

about boosting the economy even though

it may mean larger deficits in the future 34%

Should worry more about keeping the budget

deficit down, even though it may mean it will

take longer for the economy to recover 63

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, June 2010.

Obama, the Republicans, and the Economy

Approve Disapprove

42% CNN/ORC (July) 57%

39 Quinnipiac (July) 56

40 CBS (July) 54

44 Bloomberg (July) 52

43 ABC/ Post(July) 5443 PSRA/Pew (June) 51

46 NBC/ WSJ(June) 50

Q: Do you think . . . ?

Democratic policies are more likely

to improve the economy 37%

Republican policies are 40

Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, July 2010.




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Recommended Reading: Recession ReactionsIn theJune issue ofPolitical Report, we looked at a March survey of the unemployed done by Knowledge Networks for

the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University and the State of New Jersey. The pollsters

interviewed a large sample of people who were unemployed, including a significant group that had been unemployed for

a long period of time.

We would also like to recommend a Maysurveyby the social and demographic trends group of the Pew Research

Center. How the Great Recession Has Changed Life in America: A Balance Sheet at 30 Months examines the attitudes,

the economic situation, and behavioral changes made by a national sample and various subgroups. The researchers note

that 55 percent of adults in the labor force say they have suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in

hours or have become involuntary part-time workers.

Perhaps surprisingly, the survey found that some of those most hard hit by the downturn are the most optimistic

about a recovery. Their statistical analysis found that blacks, Democrats and, on most questions, younger adults are

more likely than whites, Republicans and older adults to hold positive views about the national economy and their per-

sonal finances, regardless of their income, education, gender or whether they have had difficulty paying their bills, mak-

ing mortgage or rent payments, getting or paying for medical care, or have had to cut spending during the recession.

The authors offer this explanation for the counterintuitive political responses: [I]n an age of highly polarized politics,

Democrats and Republicans differ not only in their values, attitudes and policy positions, but, increasingly, in their basic

perceptions of reality.

Q: Which political party do you . . . ?

Trust the Democrats to do a better job

handling the economy 42%

The Republicans 34Both/neither 20


Q: Who do you . . . ?

July 2010 Nov. 2009

Trust Obama to do a better job

handling the economy 41% 56%Trust the Republicans in Congress 42 26

Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of July 2010.


Bush TaxCuts

Q: Which comescloser to your view

about the tax cuts

passed whenGeorge W. Bush

was president?

Source: PSRA/Pew,latest that of July 2010.

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Sep-2004 Sep-2005 Sep-2006 Sep-2007 Sep-2008 Sep-2009 Jul-2010

Tax cuts for the wealthy should be

repealed, while others stay in place

31%30%

27%

All of the tax cuts

should be repealedAll of the tax cuts

should remain in place
http://www.aei.org/http://www.aei.org/outlook/100966http://www.aei.org/outlook/100966http://www.aei.org/outlook/100966http://www.aei.org/outlook/100966http://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/759/how-the-great-recession-has-changed-life-in-americahttp://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/759/how-the-great-recession-has-changed-life-in-americahttp://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/759/how-the-great-recession-has-changed-life-in-americahttp://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/759/how-the-great-recession-has-changed-life-in-americahttp://www.aei.org/outlook/100966http://www.aei.org/



Social Security at 75: Grim TidingsOn August 14, the Social Security program will be 75 years old. Sixty percent of non-retired Americans are not confident

the system will be able to pay them a benefit. Seventy-six percent of 18-34 year olds give that response.


Source: Gallup, latest that of July 2010.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1989 1990 1991 1991 1992 1994 2000 2001 2004 2010

Social Security will be able to pay a benefit when you retire

Will

Will Not

36%

60%

Obamas Personal QualitiesIn other sections of this report, we show how Americans are reacting to policies of the Obama administration. Here we

review some recent survey questions on the presidents personal attributes. He has lost ground on these, too.

Q: When it comes to the presidency of Barack Obama, do you . . . ?

June 2010 January 2009

Strongly relate to him as your president 29% 50%

Somewhat relate to him 27 26

Relate to him only a little 14 12

Do not really relate to him 30 8

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of June 2010.

Q: How would you rate Barack Obama on the following qualities . . . ?

Very good rating

June 2010 January 2009

Being easy going and likeable 64% 77%

Being compassionate enough to

understand average people 51 70

Being honest and straightforward 46 63

Being firm and decisive in decision making 44 63

Note: Respondents ranked each quality of a 5-point scale. Responses of 4 or 5 are considered here as a very good rating.Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of June 2010.




Q: As I read some pairs of opposite phrases, please tell me which one best reflects your impression of Barack Obama.

June 2010 February 2009

Trustworthy 58% 76%

Not trustworthy 37 15

Warm and friendly 68% 87%

Cold and aloof 26 8

Note: Not all categories shown.Source: PSRA/Pew, latest that of June 2010.

Q: Are you proud or ashamed to have ______ as President?

Source: Zogby, latest that of April 2010.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Apr-10

Clinton:Ashamed

44%

38%

82%

45% 53%50%

39%42%

8%

AshamedProud

Bush:Proud

Proud or ashamed to have as President

Obama:Proud

Ashamed

Here Come the Republicans

Q: Next, wed like to get your overall opinion of some people in the new. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of these peopleor have never heard of them. How about . . . ?

Among self-identified

Nationally Republicans

Favorable image

Sarah Palin 44% 76%

Mike Huckabee 40 65

Newt Gingrich 36 64

Mitt Romney 36 54

Bobby Jindal 34 45

Source: Gallup, July 2010.



Tea Party TrendsIn most polls, views of the Tea Party have held steady in recent months. Those aware of the movement describe it as con-

servative. In Gallups analysis, 29 percent nationally are conservative Republicans. Sixty-two percent of Tea Party sup-

porters are. In Quinnipiacs new poll, 12 percent describe themselves as supporters of the movement. In a separate

question, 33 percent have a favorable opinion of it.

Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? (CBS)

Q: From what you know, do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement,or dont you have an opinion either way? (PSRA/Pew)

Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the Tea Party movement,

or neither? (Gallup)

Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several public figures and groups, and Id like you to rate your feelings

toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. (NBC/WSJ)

Q: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? (Quinnipiac)

Q: Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable, or havent you heard enough about it? (Quinnipiac)

CBS PSRA/Pew* Gallup NBC/WSJ

Supporter/Not Agree/Disagree Supporter/Opponent Positive/Negative

27% 56% (July) 24% 18% (June) 31% 30% (June) 34% 31% (June)

20 59 (May) 25 18 (May) 29 28 (May) 31 30 (Late May)

24 14 (March) 28 26 (March) 29 28 (March)

Quinnipiac Quinnipiac

Part of it/Not Favorable/Unfavorable

12% 81% (July) 33% 31% (July)

15 79 (April) 32 31 (April)

13 80 (March) 28 23 (March)

Note: *The PSRA/Pew responses shown here are based on responses to two questions. The first asked people how much they had heardabout the Tea Party movement, and then those who had heard a lot or a little were asked whether they agreed with it or had no opinioneither way.

Ideological makeup of Tea Party supporters and all Americans

Lib. Mod. Cons. Pure Mod/Lib Con.

Dem. Dem. Dem. Ind. Rep. Rep.

Tea Party supporters 3% 7% 5% 6% 17% 62%

All Americans 18 19 9 8 15 29

Note: Ideological breakdown based on the three Gallup surveys conducted March, May, and June 2010.Source: Gallup, latest that of June 2010.

Q: Would you say the Tea Party movement is . . . ?

Very conservative 17%

Conservative 18

Moderate 7

Liberal 3

Very liberal 1

No opinion either way 30

Note: Question asked of those who had heard a lot or a little about the Tea Party movement = 76 percent of the sample.Source: PSRA/Pew, June 2010.




Q: Please tell me which of the following statements . . . ?

Comes closest to your view of the Tea Party movement

It is a genuine political movement that has new ideas

and programs that would improve the waygovernment works 36%

It is a fringe protest movement and lacks new ideas

that would improve the way government works 30

No opinion 27


How Angry?The first question in the Roper Centers archive of polls that uses the words anger or angry appeared in 1944. People

who had heard or read about a disagreement between Congress and the president over taxes needed to fund the war were

told that the words used by the president in vetoing the tax bill made many congressmen angry. In response, 49 percent

said that the president should always try to be friendly when addressing Congress, while 44 percent said he should scold

Congress if he wanted to. Only one question about anger appeared during the Eisenhower years. In 1980, the RoperOrganization started asking a question in which they asked people to react to policies using adjectives such as angry or

boiling mad. In 1992, ABC News and the Washington Poststarted asking the question we show here about the federal

government. Dissatisfaction dominates in the ABC/Posttrend; in the Pew and Newsweek surveys (also shown here), frus-

tration does. Around a quarter in both surveys describe themselves as angry.

Q: I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which best describes how you feel about the way the federal gov-ernment works. Do you feel . . . ?

Note: November 24, 2002; October 27, 2002; September 28, 1998; and October 4, 1992 polls were asked of likely voters. November 6,1994 and October 4, 1994 polls were asked of registered voters.Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of July 2010.

Mar-1992 Mar-1995 Mar-1998 Mar-2001 Mar-2004 Mar-2007 Mar-2010

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

SatisfedDissatisfed

Angry

Enthusiastic

43%

32%

25%

3%





Q: On another subject . . . some people say they are basi-cally content with the federal government, others saythey are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which

best describes how you feel?Basically

content Frustrated Angry

Sept.Oct. 1997 29% 56% 12%

February 2000 33 54 10

June 2000 28 53 13

November 2001 53 34 8

March 2004 32 52 13

Sept.Oct. 2006 21 54 20

Dec. 06Jan. 07 21 58 16

March 2010 19 56 21

April 2010 23 52 21

June 2010 21 52 24Source: SeptOct 1997 through March 2010, PSRA/Pew. June 2010,PSRA/Newsweek.

Q: Which of the following statements comes closest to

your view of the way the Democratic Party and Republi-can Party have been dealing with the countrys problems?

Way parties are

dealing with the

countrys problems

June January

2010 2010

You are angry at both parties 53% 48%You are only angry at

the Republicans 9 9

You are only angry at

the Democrats 7 11

You are not angry at either party 31 32

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation.

Q: Please tell me if each of following . . . ?

Describes your feeling of

the health care reform law

AngrySept. 2009 31%

October 2009 40

December 2009 35

April 2010 30

May 2010 30

June 2010 31

Source: Kaiser, latest that of June 2010.

Q: Are you . . . ?

The amount of federal

income taxes you and

your family paid last yearAngry Satisfied

January 1985* 27% 47%

February 1986* 34 43

April 2010 40 36

Note: *Polls taken by the Los Angeles Times. The April 2010 ques-tion was asked between April 9 and 11.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, April 2010.

Q: Overall, which comes closest to your . . . ?

Feelings about the

Obama administration

Responses of

National Dem. Rep. Ind.

Extremely happy 9% 17% 1% 6%

Satisfied 37 65 12 33

Disappointed 32 15 44 40

Angry 21 2 43 21

Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, June 2010.

Q: How would you describe your feelings toward Presi-

dent Obama . . . ?

Responses of

National Dem. Rep. Ind.Admire 17% 33% 3% 14%

Satisfied 33 54 13 31

Dissatisfied 33 10 54 35

Angry 15 2 28 18

Source: Quinnipiac, July 2010.

Q: In general, does the . . . ?

Number of illegal aliens in

this country makes you feel

Angry 23%

Dissatisfied 51Satisfied 20

Pleased 6

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.




Health Care

The Health Care Bill

Q: As of right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the health care proposals being discussed in Congress?(PSRA/Pew)

Q: From what youve heard or read, do you mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the proposed changes to the healthcare system under consideration in Congress? (CBS/NYT)

Q: In general, do you support, oppose or neither support nor oppose the health care reform plans being discussed inCongress? (AP/Gfk Roper)

Q: As you may know, a new health care bill was signed into law earlier this year. Given what you know about the new

health reform law, do you have a generally favorable, or generally unfavorable opinion of it? (Kaiser)

Q: From what you have heard about Barack Obamas health care plan, do you think his plan is a good idea or a badidea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so. (NBC/WSJ)

PSRA/Pew CBS/NYT AP/Gfk Kaiser NBC/WSJ

Fav Opp Fav Opp Sup Opp Fav Unfav Good Bad

Jul. 2009 38% 44% - - - - - - 36% 42%

Aug. 2009 39 46 - - - - - - 36 42

Sept. 2009 42 44 - - 34% 49% - - 39 41

Oct. 2009 34 47 - - 40 40 - - 38 42

Nov. 2009 42 39 40% 45% 39 45 - - - -

Dec. 2009 35 48 - - 36 44 - - 32 47

Jan.2010 39 48 - - 42 42 - - 31 46

Feb. 2010 38 50 - - - - - - - -

Mar. 2010 40 47 37 48* 41 43 - - 36 48

Apr. 2010 40 44 32 53* 39 50^^ 46% 40% - -

May 2010 - - 43 47* 39 46^^ 41 44 38 44**

Jun. 2010 35 47 - - 45 42^^ 48 41 40 44**Jul. 2010 - - 36 49* - -

Note: Pew question wording read Do you approve or disapprove of the health care legislation passed by Barack Obama and Congress inMarch 2010? ^Question wording read In general, do you support, oppose,or neither support nor oppose the health care reforms thatwere passed by Congress in March? *CBS/NYTquestion wording read From what youve heard or read, do you approve or disapprove ofthe new health care reform bill? **NBC/WSJquestion wording read From what you have heard about Barack Obamas health care planthat was recently passed by Congress and signed into law by the President, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea?

Q: And, would you be more likely to vote for . . . ?

Would vote for

A Democratic candidate for Congress who

says we should give the health care law

a chance to work and then make

changes to it as needed 51%A Republican candidate for Congress who

says we should repeal the new health care law

entirely and then start over 44





How Obama Is Handling Health Care

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling health care? (ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times)

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy? (PSRA/Pew)

Q: If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approving or disapproving of the way Barack Obama is handling

health care? (AP/Gfk-Roper)

ABC/Post PSRA/Pew CBS/NYT AP/Gfk

App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis

Jun. 2009 - - - - 44% 34% - -

Jul. 2009 49% 44% 42% 43% 46 48 50% 43%

Aug. 2009 46 50 - - 40 47 - -

Sept. 2009 48 48 - - 47 45 42 52

Oct. 2009 48 48 - - 47 45 48 47

Nov. 2009 47 49 43 47 44 48 49 46

Dec. 2009 44 53 - - 42 50 49 46Jan. 2010 44 52 38 52 40 54 48 48

Feb. 2010 43 53 - - 35 55 - -

Mar. 2010 48 49 39 52 41 51 49 46

Apr. 2010 49 49 40 51 41 51 44 52

May 2010 - - - - 42 52 45 51

Jun. 2010 - - 42 50 - - 49 46

Jul. 2010 45 50 - - - - - -

Note: In August, 43 percent told PSRA/Pew pollsters that they had not too much or no confidence at all in Barack Obama to do the rightthing on dealing with health care reform; in December, 51 percent had not too much or no confidence in him. The survey dates for the Pewpoll labeled October were September 30October 4. The survey dates for the Pew poll labeled November were October 28November 8.

Arizonas Immigration Law

Q: Based on what youve heard or read, do you approve of disapprove of Arizonas new immigration law? (Quinnipiac)

Q: As you may know, the State of Arizona recently passed a law that requires police the power to verify the legal status

of someone they have already stopped or arrest if they suspect that the person is in the country illegally. Do youapprove or disapprove of Arizonas new immigration law? (PSRA/Pew)

Q: As you may know, the state of Arizona recently passed a law that gives the police the power to question someonethey have already stopped, detained, or arrested about their legal status in the country. The law requires people to pro-

duce documents verifying their status if asked. Do you think this law goes too far in dealing with the issue of illegalimmigration, doesnt go far enough, or is about right? (CBS)

Q: Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose Arizonas new immigration law? (Fox/OD)

Quinnipiac PSRA/Pew CBS Fox/OD

Approve/Disapprove Approve/Disapprove Too far/About right/Not far enough Approve/Disapprove

55% 30% (July) 64% 32% (June) 23% 57% 17% (July) 52% 27% (July)

51 31 (June) 28 52 17 (May) 50 32 (June)






Q: Would you . . . ?

Favor your state passing an

immigration law like Arizonas 55%

Oppose 34

Note: Question not asked in Arizona. Responses in May were52 percent favor, 31 percent oppose. Responses to a similarJuly Quinnipiac question were nearly identical, with 51 percentin favor of their State passing a similar immigration law and35 opposed.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, July 2010.

Q: The Obama administration has filed a lawsuit to

strike down Arizonas immigration law. Do youthink . . . ?

Adinistrations lawsuit is a good idea 28%

A bad idea 60

Note: Eleven percent of Republicans, 25 percent of indepen-dents, and 48 percent of Democrats thought it was a good idea.A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll from mid-July told peopleThe federal government is suing the state of Arizona because itsays its new immigration law is unconstitutional. Twenty-ninepercent favored the lawsuit, while 59 percent opposed it.Source: Quinnipiac, July 2010.

Vice Presidential VectorsVice Presidents Biden, Cheney, and Gore have been in the news lately. Heres a snapshot of how Americans

see them.

Q: Next, wed like to get your overall opinion of some people in the new. As I read each name, please say if

you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these peopleor have never heard of them. How about . . . ?


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10

Favorable

Unfavorable

43%

41%

7%Never heard of

Opinion of Joe Biden




Dick Cheney Al Gore

Fav Unfav Fav Unfav

Mar 2009 30% 63% (lowest rating) Jul 2010 44% 49% (lowest rating)

Jan 2002 67 20 (highest) Aug 2000 64 30 (highest)


Dick Cheney

Favorable

36%Favorable

44%

Unfavorable

49%Unfavorable

52%

Noopinion

12%

No

opinion

8%

Al Gore

The Pill and the PublicIn 1936, 63 percent of those surveyed by Elmo Roper for Fortune said they believed in the teaching and practice of birth

control, while 23 percent were opposed. Fortune noted that 43 percent of Catholics were in favor and 45 percentopposed. In 1943, when Fortune returned to the subject, 85 percent of women said knowledge about birth control should

be made available to all married women, while 10 percent said it should not. Women who said it should be available were

then asked if it should be kept from unmarried women, and 70 percent said it should not be.

The birth control pill was introduced 50 years ago in 1960. By 1970, 44 percent of women surveyed by Lou Harris said

they had used the pill, including 60 percent of those under age 30. In questions from 1965 and 1970, large majorities

were opposed to making the pill available to young people.

Many of the small number of questions from the 1960s and 1970s about the pill are about effectiveness and safety. Few

addressed concerns about what the pill might do to sexual mores. Today, 64 percent say the pill is safe and a large majority of

men and women say the pill has been a change for the better for the lives of American women. Around 10 percent said it has

made them worse. Looking forward, far more men than women say that men would use birth control pills if they were available.

Q: Do you . . . ?1936

Believe in the teaching and

practice of birth control 63%

Do not 23

Source: Elmo Roper for Fortune, 1936.

Q: Do you believe that knowledge about birth control . . .1943

Womens response

Should be made available to

married women 85%

Should not 10

Source: Elmo Roper for Fortune, 1943.



July 2010



Q: Have you used the birth control pill?

1970

Women over age 16

Have used it 44%

By age:

Women under age 30 60%

3049 52

50 and older 26

Note: In the 2010 CBS poll, 75 percent of women said they hadused birth control pills.Source: The Harris Survey, 1970.

Q: The health officer of a university recently gave prescrip-tions for birth control pills to two unmarried students.How do you feel . . . ?

1965Responses of

Men Women

Approve of giving birth

control pills to women

in college 18% 14%

Disapprove 70 77

Source: The Gallup Organization, October 1965.

Q: Do you . . . ?

1970

Favor making birth control pills

available to teenage girls 15%Oppose 73

Note: Twenty-four percent of men and 12 percent of womenfavored making them available to teenage girls.

Source: The Gallup Organization, February 1970.


1966 2010

Birth control pills can be

used safely 43% 64%

Cannot be 26 25

Note: The 1966 Gallup question also asked whether the pill should

be made available free to all women of child-bearing age onrelief, and 62 percent said yes. Sixty-one percent in this survey saidthe pill was effective. Fifty-four percent said they would recommendthese pills to a woman who did not want more children.Source: The Gallup Organization, 1966; CBS, May 2010.


Q: Has the development of the birth control pill . . . ?

2010

Responses of

National Men Women

Been a change for the better for

the lives of American women 56% 59% 54%

Worse 9 9 8

No difference 28 25 31

Source: CBS, May 2010.


2010

Responses of

National Men Women

Most men would be willing to use

birth control pills if they were

available to men 49% 66% 35%

Would not 40 24 54

Source: CBS, May 2010.


17/17

Poll Potpourri

Banning the Burqa

Q: Some countries are considering a ban on Muslimwomen wearing full veils that cover all of the face

except the eyes in public places including schools, hos-pitals, and government offices. Would you . . . ?

Approve of banning full veils that

cover all of the face except the eyes

Responses in

France 82%

Germany 71

Britain 62

Spain 59

United States 28

Note: In France, the question began, The government isconsidering . . .Source: Pew Global Attitudes, spring 2010.

The More Things Change . . .

Q: As I read a list of some news stories covered bynews organizations this past month, tell me if you hap-

pened to follow each news story . . . .

June 2006

Following actor Mel Gibsons

outburst during a drunk driving

arrest very closely 14%

Source: PSRA/Pew, June 2006.

iPie

Q: If we wanted to update the expression as Americanas . . . , which of the following would be the best

replacement for apple pie?

Apple iPod 23%

NASCAR 23

Triple bacon cheeseburgers 21

SUV 10

Going to rehab 8

Source: CBS/Vanity Fair, June 2010.

Invincible?

Q: If you could do any of the following things without

worrying about its effect on your health, which wouldyou choose?

Eating whatever you want 43%

Never exercising 17

Getting a good tan 10

Having sex without precautions 10

Smoking 8

Drinking as much alcohol as you want 5

Source: CBS/Vanity Fair, June 2010.

Negotiating with the TalibanIn a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, 51 percent of

Americans opposed a negotiated settlement between the

Afghan government and the Taliban that would allow

Taliban members to hold government offices. Thirty-seven percent in the poll favored a negotiated settlement.

In an ABC News/BBC/ARD poll in Afghanistan in Decem-

ber 2009, 65 percent favored a negotiated settlement.

Q: Do you think the Afghan government should nego-

tiate a settlement with the Taliban in which they areallowed to hold political offices if they agree to stop

fighting, or do you think the Afghan governmentshould continue to fight the Taliban and not enter into

these negotiations?

Favor a negotiated settlement 37%

Oppose 51


See you in September!

political report july/august 2010: aei's monthly poll compilation

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