political report september 2010: aei's monthly poll compilation

8/7/2019 Political Report September 2010: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation

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Volume 6, Issue 8 September 2010

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org

Election 2010

After five weeks in which the GOP led the Democrats on the congressional ballot preference question, Gallups August

29September 5 poll shows the two parties tied at 46 percent among registered voters. Given the GOPs advantage in

turnout in midterm elections and the enthusiasm levels of Republican voters this year, the party is poised to do well in

November. Other recent polls show a GOP advantage. In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation early September poll,

52 percent say they would vote for a Republican candidate for Congress, 45 percent a Democrat. The Fox News/Opinion

Dynamics poll from the same dates shows 46 percent of registered voters preferring the Republican candidate to 37 per-

cent for a Democrat. In the late Augustearly September ABC News/Washington Postpoll, the GOP has a 13-point lead on

the generic ballot question among likely voters, 53 to 40 percent. This is the widest GOP margin in this poll since 1981.

The late August NBC News/Wall Street Journalpoll finds that 49 percent of likely voters preferred a Congress controlled by

Republicans to 40 percent one controlled by the Democrats. Less than two months before Election Day, voters may beready to reshuffle the deck, but as the data below show, they are deeply dissatisfied with both parties.

Q: Do you think . . . ?

Most of the Democrats in

Congress deserve to be re-elected 36%

Do not 56

Most of the Republicans in

Congress deserve to be re-elected 33%

Do not 58

Source: ABC/Washington Post, August-September 2010.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Favor establishing term limits on the

number of terms members of the

U.S. Congress can serve, including

your own senators and representatives 78%

Oppose 16

Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, September 2010.

Q: Whether or not you agree with them, do you think . . . ?

The Democrats are offering the country

a clear direction thats different from

the Republicans 49%

Are not 47

The Republicans are offering the country

a clear direction thats different from the

Democrats 46%

Are not 47

Source: ABC/Washington Post, AugustSeptember 2010.

Q: If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you

to vote to defeat and replace every single member of

Congress, including your own representative, would

you . . . ?

Would vote to defeat and replace every

single member of Congress including

your own representative 48%

Would not 49

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.

Enthusiasm: In Gallups latest poll that shows the generic ballot even, Republicans continue to maintain a very sub-

stantial enthusiasm edge. In the poll, Republicans were twice as likely as Democrats to say they are very enthusiastic

about voting this fall, 50 to 25 percent among the registered voter sample. On September 7, the Center for the Study

of the American Electorate released its examination of the 35 states that held statewide primaries before September.

Turnout among Democratic voters was at its lowest level in 80 years. Four million more Republicans than Democrats

have voted in these primaries, the first time this has happened in midterm elections since 1930.
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Views of the Parties

Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several public figures, groups, and countries, and Id like you to rate your

feelings toward each one as . . . .

Democratic Party Republican Party Tea Party

Very positive 11% 7% 12%

Somewhat positive 25 23 16

Neutral 19 25 19

Somewhat negative 19 22 12

Very negative 24 21 24

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.

Q: When it comes to _____, which party do you think would . . . ?

Democrats would do a better job Republicans would do a better job

46% Protecting the environment 13%

40 Dealing with global warming 13

36 Dealing with energy policy 2041 Dealing with health care 29

30 Dealing with Social Security 26

33 Getting the country out of recession 30

31 Dealing with the economy 34

27 Dealing with immigration 32

28 Dealing with taxes 35

21 Dealing with Afghanistan 28

24 Reducing the federal deficit 32

24 Protecting strong moral values 32

23 Controlling government spending 37

20 Dealing with the war on terrorism 39

Note: Many respondents chose the responses both about the same or neither.Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.

Q: For each of the following, please tell me whether it . . . ?

Applies more

to the

Dem. Rep.

Party Party

Cares about the needs of people

like you 46% 39%

Agrees with you on issues you care about 44 46

Can improve economic conditions 43 46

Can bring about the kinds of change

the country needs 43 43

Shares your view of the proper size

and power of the federal govt. 40 48

Can manage the government effectively 36 44

Can protect the country from terrorism 33 47

Is patriotic 29 43

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.

Q: Do you think the . . . ?

Republicans in Democrats in

Congress would Congress would

do a better job do a better job

of dealing with of dealing with

Terrorism 55% 31%

Immigration 50 35

Federal spending 50 35

The economy 49 38

Afghanistan 45 38Jobs 46 41

Corruption in

government 38 35

Health care 43 44

The environment 31 54

Source: Gallup/USA Today, August 2010.



Congress and the CountryGallup notes that Congresss average approval rating this year is 20 percent. That is down, the organization says, from 30 per-

cent in 2009. This years average is the lowest in any midterm election since Gallup started asking the question in 1974.

The EconomyMore polls showed that perceptions of the economys health deteriorated this summer.


Barack Obama has a vision

of where he wants to lead

the country 77%

Republicans in Congress have a

vision of where they want to

lead the country 54

Source: CBS, August 2010.

Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several publicfigures, groups and countries, and Id like you to rate

your feelings toward each one as . . .

August 2010 January 2009

Nancy Pelosi

Positive feelings 21% 26%

Negative feelings 46 36Harry Reid

Positive feelings 11% 14%

Negative feelings 31 31

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of August 2010.

Q: Thinking about the countrys economic problems,

have we . . . ?

August January

Pretty much hit the bottom 29% 31%

There is still a ways to go

before we hit bottom 64 53

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of August 2010.


August July

The economy is getting better 20% 25%

Getting worse 34 26

Staying about the same 44 48

Source: CBS, latest that of August 2010.

Q: Some people say the policies of former President

George W. Bush are mostly to blame for the economic

difficulties the country is having today. Others say enough

time has passed for President Barack Obamas policies to

take effect and so his policies are mostly to blame. Which

of these positions . . . ?

Comes closer to my view

The policies of George W. Bush

are mostly to blame for economic

difficulties 47%

Enough time has passed for President

Obamas policies to take effect

and so his policies are mostly to blame 32

Q: Do you think it is . . . ?

Right for the Obama administration to

continue to blame the Bush adminis-

tration for the economys condition 18%

Time for the Obama adminis-

tration to start taking

responsibility 76

Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, August 2010.



Ideology in AmericaAmerica remains a center-right country as the data from Gallup (below) and other pollsters show. We look on the next

page at the ideological self-identification of those in college because they often lead change. In recent years, college fresh-

men have been much more likely to call themselves liberal than conservative. Still, most call themselves middle-of-the-

road. Perhaps because of dissatisfaction with the Bush presidency, or perhaps because of excitement about candidateObama, the number of self-identified liberals on campus reached a high in 2008 not seen since the early 1970s. On only

one occasion, 1980, did self-identified conservatives outnumber liberals among college freshmen.

As for the parties, Americans see them as mirror images of one another ideologically. In Pews sampling of registered

voters, 58 percent describe the Democratic Party as liberal or very liberal, and 56 percent say the GOP is conservative or

very conservative.

There is a growing perception that Obamas views and positions are too liberal. So, too, is the perception that he listens

more to liberals in his party than conservatives.

The Trends

Q: How would you describe your political views . . . ?

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of June 2010.

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research

Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar;

Michael Barone, Resident Fellow.

Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew

Rugg, Editor.

Interns: Kathleen Nahill, Lucy Zheng.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

(continued on the next page)

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan-2009 Apr-2009 Jul-2009 Oct-2009 Jan-2010 Apr-2010

National adults

41

33

22



Q: How would characterize your political views?

Source: The American Freshman (19702008), American Council on Education, University of California, Los Angeles.

The Parties Ideologies

Q: In general, how often do you feel . . . ?

The Republican Partys positions on The Democratic Partys positions

the issues are too conservative for you on the issues are too liberal for you

Most of the time 29% 41%

Some of the time 41 35

Hardly ever/never 28 21

Note: Sample is registered voters. Twenty-seven percent of Independents said the Republican Partys positions were too conservative for themmost of the time, while 52 said that was true some of the time. Thirty-nine percent of Independents said Democratic Party positions were tooliberal for them most of the time, while 42 percent said that was true some of the time.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, August 2010.

Q: Overall, would you describe the views and policies of each of the following as . . .

Republican Party Democratic Party Tea Party movement

Too extreme 39% 43% 47%

Generally mainstream 56 54 43

Note: In four earlier askings of this question, between 33 and 40 percent said the views and policies of the Republican Party were tooextreme. In four earlier askings, between 25 and 33 percent said the views of the Democratic Party were too extreme.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

College freshmen

Middle-of-the Road

Liberal

Conservative

Far Left Far Right

40

35

20

3

1

(continued from the previous page)




Q: Now thinking about the positions of the parties these days, would you say _____ is . . . ?

Q: In general, how would you describe your political views?

Republican Democratic Tea Party Your politicalParty is Party is movement is views are

Very conservative 18% 3% 20% 9%

Conservative 38 9 21 30

Moderate 26 26 7 36

Liberal 9 32 3 16

Very liberal 4 26 2 6

Note: Based on registered voters.Source: Pew Research Center, June 2010.

Source: PSRA/Pew, June 2010.

Barack Obamas Ideology


Barack Obamas positions on the issues are

July 2010 April 2009 November 2008

Too liberal 47% 35% 39%

About right 39 53 53

Too conservative 7 6 3

Note: Sample is registered voters. Not all askings shown.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, latest that of July 2010.

All Voters

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Very Liberal Liberal Moderate Conservative VeryConservative

DemocraticParty

Themselves RepublicanParty

Tea Partymovement

Where Voters Place Themselves and the Parties




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Q: In general, would you say that President Obamas views and proposed programs for the country are . . . ?

August 2010 March 2009

Obamas views and positions are

Too liberal 46% 36%Not liberal enough 13 5

Just about right 39 58

Note: Not all points shown. In the AugustSeptembr ABC News/Washington Postpoll, 45 percent said Obamas views on most issues are tooliberal for them, 9 percent too conservatice, and 45 percent about right.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of August 2010.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Q: (If disapprove) Do you disapprove because you think his policies and actions since he became president have been . . . ?

July 2010 Mid-December Early December

2009 2009

Approve of the way Barack

Obama is handling his job

as President 47% 54% 48%

Disapprove because his policies

and actions have been too liberal 38 34 40

Disapprove because his policies

and actions have not been

liberal enough 9 8 8

Disapprove/unsure why 3 2 2

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of July 2010.

Q: When it comes to national policy, who do you think Barack Obama is listening to . . . ?

Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of June 2010.

Liberal members of his own party

Moderate members of his party

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

Jan-2009

Mar-2009

May-2009

July-2009

Sep-2009

Nov-2009

Jan-2010

Mar-2010

May-2010

July-2010

Obama is listening more to



46

34



Another Way to Segment the Public IdeologicallyIn 1993, Gallup combined results from the two questions below to come up with a new way of segmenting the public

ideologically. If people responded that they thought government was trying to do too many things and that government

should promote traditional values, they were identified as pure conservatives. If people gave the opposite responses, theywere called pure liberals. People who said government was trying to do too many things and that government should not

promote traditional values were dubbed libertarians, and those who said government should do more and that govern-

ment should promote traditional values were deemed populists. Using this approach, the breakdown for 2009 was 31 per-

cent conservative, 23 percent libertarian, 19 percent populist, and 18 percent pure liberal.

Q: Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses.

Others think that government should do more to solve our countrys problems. Which comes closer to your own view?

Q: Some people think people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the

government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your view?

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of September 2009.

The Progressive Label

Q: As you may know, some people use the label progressive to describe their political views. From what you have

heard or read about the term, do you think . . . ?

National Responses of

Democrats Liberals

Progressive describes my

political views 12% 20% 17%

Does not 31 22 17

Unsure 54 57 57

Note: A February Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll asked people which of six groups best understands America and what it stands for.Twenty-one percent said conservatives did, 17 percent Democrats, 12 percent Republicans, 8 percent liberals, and 5 percent Progressives.Among Democrats, 7 percent said Progressives best understand America. Thirty-seven percent of Democrats said Democrats did, and 14 per-cent liberals.Source: The Gallup Organization, June 2010.


Pure Liberal

18Populist

19

Libertarian

23

Pure Conservative31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

19931994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



Tea and TaxesIn most polls, views of the Tea Party have held steady in recent months. Around 15 percent of those surveyed want to let

the tax cuts expire and return rates to their previous levels.

Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? (CBS) Q: From what you know, doyou strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement, or dont you have an opinion

either way? (PSRA/Pew) Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the

Tea Party movement, or neither? (Gallup) Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several public figures and groups,

and Id like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative,

or very negative. (NBC/WSJ) Q: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? (Quinnipiac) Q: Is your

opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable, or havent you heard enough about it? (Quinnipiac) Q: Do

you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neither favorable nor unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement? (AP/Gfk)

Q: From what you know about the Tea Party movement, would you say generally agree, disagree or neither agree nor

disagree on the Tea Party movements positions on political issues? (AP/Gfk)

CBS PSRA/Pew* Gallup NBC/WSJ

Supporter/Not Agree/Disagree Supporter/Opponent Positive/Negative

29% 54% (Aug) 28% 24% (Aug) 31% 30% (June) 30% 34% (Aug)27 56 (July) 24 18 (June) 29 28 (May) 34 31 (June)

20 59 (May) 25 18 (May) 28 26 (March) 31 30 (Late May)

24 14 (March) 29 28 (March)

Quinnipiac Quinnipiac AP/Gfk AP/Gfk

Part of it/Not Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav Agree/Disagree

12% 80% (Aug/Sept) 30% 31% (Aug/Sept) 31% 34% (Aug) 34% 30% (Aug)

12 81 (July) 33 31 (July) 33 33 (June) 35 27 (Jun)

15 79 (April) 32 31 (April) 29 31 (May) 35 26 (May)

13 80 (March) 28 23 (March) 28 30 (Apr.) 33 26 (Apr)

Note: *The PSRA/Pew responses shown here are based on responses to two questions. The first asked people how much they had heard aboutthe Tea Party movement, and then those who had heard a lot or a little were asked whether they agreed with it or had no opinion either way.

Q: As you may know, the tax cuts passed into law when

George W. Bush was President are set to expire this year.

Unless a new bill is passed, federal income tax rates will

rise to the level they were at when those cuts were enacted.

Which of the following statements comes closest to your

view . . . ?

Those tax cuts should continue for

all Americans 31%

Those tax cuts should continue for families

that make less than $250,000 a year, but

taxes should rise to the previous level for

families who make more than that amount 51

Taxes should rise to the previous level for

all Americans regardless of how much

money they make 18

Note: The responses for Democrats were 13, 67, and 20 percent,respectively. For Republicans they were 50, 40 and 10 percent,respectively, and for independents, they were 34, 44, and 21 per-cent respectively.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.

Q: As you may know, the tax cuts passed during George W.

Bushs administration lowered taxes by reducing maxi-

mum income tax rate for all Americans. These tax cuts are

set to expire at the end of 2010, meaning tax rates would

go back to what they were before the Bush tax cuts.

Congress is currently considering whether to let these

tax cuts expire or extend them. Which of the following

comes closest to your own view on what action Congress

should take . . . ?

Extend the tax cuts for all Americans 49%

Let the tax cuts expire only for people

who earn more than $200,000 a year 31

Let the tax cuts expire for all Americans 15

Note: The responses for Democrats were 34, 42, and 21 percentrespectively. For Republicans they were 72, 18, and 8 percent, respec-tively, and for independents, they were 37, 29, and 18 percent.Source: Ipsos/Reuters, August 2010.



Drill Again?Americans are paying less attention to the Gulf oil spill than they were a few weeks ago.

Q: And, on offshore drilling,

do you . . . ?Support a proposal to

allow more drilling for

oil off the coast of

the U.S. 57%

Oppose 49

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal,August 2010.

Q: As you may know, as a result of the oil

spill, the federal government banned mostoffshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico

through November. Do you think . . . ?

The federal government should

lift the ban and allow

offshore drilling to resume 47%

Keep the ban on most

offshore drill ing in place 46

Source: The Gallup Organization, August 2010.

Q: In the future, do you think . . . ?

BP should be allowed to drillfor oil in the same area

of the Gulf in which

the oil spill occurred 49%

Should not 46

Source: The Gallup Organization, August2010.

Obamas Birth and His Religion

Q: On another subject, where was Barack Obama born, as far as you know? (Those responding dont know where

asked: Is it your best guess that Barack Obama was born in the United States, or in another country?)

Barack Obama was born in the United States 77%

Was not 20

Note: Responses shown here include the response to the initial question and then to the follow-up question for those who responded dont

know. Nine percent of those who thought he was born in another country said there was solid evidence that he was born abroad. Fifteenpercent of Democrats, 18 percent of independents, and 31 percent of Republicans said he was not born in the United States.Source: ABC/Washington Post, April 2010.

Poll Potpourri


President Obama was born in

the United States 58%

Was not 20

Dont know enough 22

Source: CBS News, April 2010.


President Obama was definitely born

in the United States 42%

Probably born in the United States 29

Probably born in another country 16

Note: Sixty-four percent of Democrats, 37 percent of Independents,and 23 percent of Republicans said he was definitely born in the U.S.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.

Q: Now, thinking about Barack Obamas religious beliefs . . .

Do you happen to know what Barack Obamas religion is?

Is he Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, atheist,

agnostic, or something else?

Barack Obama is a

Christian Muslim

JulyAug 2010 34% 18%

March 2009 48 11

Mid-Oct 2008 51 12

Mid-Sept 48 12

June 57 12

March 47 12

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of JulyAugust 2010.



Birthright Citizenship

Q: As you may know, the Constitution says that all children born in the United States are automatically U.S. citizens

regardless of their parents status. Would you . . . ?

Natl Responses ofDems Reps Ind

Favor a constitutional amendment

to prevent children born here from

becoming U.S. citizens unless their

parents are also citizens 49% 3% 58% 50%

Oppose 51 61 40 50

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.

Q: Under current law, any child born in the United States is a citizen of the United States. If an illegal immigrant has a

baby while living in the United States, do you think . . . ?

Natl Responses of

Dems Reps IndChild should automatically become

a U.S. citizen 47% 63% 35% 48%

Should not 50 34 63 49

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.

DrinkingGallup has been tracking peoples drinking behavior for

more than 70 years. The first time the pollster asked thequestion in 1939, 58 percent said they drank compared

to 42 percent who said they abstained.

Drink liquor, Total

wine, or beer abstainer

National response 67% 33%

Selected subgroup responses:

Postgraduate education 74 26

High school or less 58 42

$75,000 81 19

< $20,000 46 54

Attend church weekly 54 46

Seldom or never 75 25

Source: The Gallup Organization, July 2010.

Marital Bliss?


I married the right person 95%

Did not 5

Note: Ninety-seven percent of men and 94 percent of womensaid they married the right person.Source: Marist, August 2010.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Believe in the idea of soul mates,

that is two people who are

destined to be together 66%

Do not 34

Note: Sixty-three percent of men and 69 percent of womenbelieved in the idea of soul mates.Source: Marist, August 2010.


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Smoke Gets in Your EyesIn 1987, 30 percent said they smoked. Today 22 percent give that

response. In the same period, views on the acceptance of smoking in

public places have changed. Fifty-nine percent, up from 17 percent in

1987, want to ban it totally in restaurants.

Q: What is your opinion regarding smoking in public places. First, in

____, should they . . . ?

In restaurants

2010 1987

Set aside certain areas 36% 74%

Totally ban smoking 59 17

There should be no

restrictions 4 8

In bars

2010 1987

Set aside certain areas 43% 23%Totally ban smoking 31 44

There should be no

restrictions 23 31

In workplaces

2010 1987

Set aside certain areas 52% 70%

Totally ban smoking 44 17

There should be no

restrictions 4 11

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of July 2010.

Gay Marriage


Gays and lesbians have a constitutional right

to get married and have their marriage

recognized by law as valid 49%

No 51

Note: Asked of a half sample.Source: CNN/Opinion Research, August 2010.

DrugsQ: Which one of the following . . . ?

Illegal drugs would you consider experiencing

the effects of, on a onetime basis, if there

were no harmful physical consequences, no

criminal charges, and no addiction

Wouldnt try any 88%

LSD 5

Ecstasy 3

Heroin 1

Crystal meth 1

Crack 0

Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.

WordsQ: Of the following, which one do you

think is . . . ?

The most overused word in the

English language today

Like 23%

Awesome 21

Tweet 21

Organic 6

Hope 14


GhostsQ: Which one of the following do you

think is . . . ?

The most likely to actually exist

Ghosts 33%

U.F.O.s 30

Vampires 7

Loch Ness Monster 7

Bigfoot 7

None of the above 11


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political report september 2010: aei's monthly poll compilation

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