mainstreet poll

8/20/2019 Mainstreet Poll

1/15

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM EASTERN, NOVEMBER 19, 2015PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK


2/15

METHODOLOGY

Mainstreet Research surveyed a random sample of 2,718 Canadians bySmart IVR™ on November 16, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cellphones were surveyed. Results were weighed by language, ageand gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.This poll has a

margin of error of +/- 1.88 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

ATTRIBUTION

Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.

The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republishedwith full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

REGIONAL MARGINS OF ERROR

ATLANTIC+/- 5.23%, 19 times out of 20

QUÉBEC+/- 3.84%, 19 times out of 20

ONTARIO+/- 3.9%, 19 times out of 20

PRAIRIES+/- 5.22%, 19 times out of 20

ALBERTA+/- 5.25%, 19 times out of 20

BRITISH COLUMBIA+/- 5.01%, 19 times out of 20


3/15

CANADIANS PREFER BOMBING MISSION - BUT MORE APPROVE OF TRAININMISSION

November 19, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Canadiawould choose a bombing mission over a training mission 38% to 28% - but more approve of training mission, 70%, than the bombing mission, 60%, overall. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll

a margin of error of +/- 1.88 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“Support is more intense for the bombing mission than the training mission,” said Quito MagPresident of Mainstreet Research. “But the training mission has wider support. Either way, mCanadians believe Canada should be taking a role in the fight against ISIS. Only 8% of Canadiwould support no action at all.”

Opinion is split on Canadian action on refugees. 46% of Canadians are dissatisfied (42% satisfiand 53% disapprove of the government’s plan to bring in 25,000 refugees by the end of the ye

“Conservatives have said the refugee plan needs to be slowed down for proper secuscreening,” continued Maggi. “This has been repeated in the United States with headlines showsome states won’t accept refugees. Our earlier polling showed strong support for bringrefugees to Canada but after the attacks in Paris security is now a higher concern.”

“We asked Canadians if they thought an attack was likely here at home, 28% said it’s very likand 38%. Most expect the threat will come from overseas, 41% see international terrorism agreater threat than domestic terrorism, 34%, despite the fact Canada has faced significantly m

domestic terrorist attacks.”

“Most, 63%, are not concerned about an attack occurring at their home or workplace. And 42%Canadians do not believe Canada is ready to confront a terrorist attack, while 26% do, and 3don’t know,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadpublic affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshotspublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Libegovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet hbeen the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majogovernment in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected]

For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]


4/15

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVE

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURESAMPLE

18-34

36%16%

15%24%10%367

35-4946%16%

14%17%9%483

50-64

52%15%

12%12%9%846

65+48%15%

11%15%11%

1022

Fem41%16%

16%16%11%141

Male

49%15%

10%18%8%

1302

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURE

SAMPLE

BC43%13%16%

23%6%

383

AB53%12%11%14%9%

349

Prairies51%14%12%

14%10%

353

ON45%17%12%16%11%

630

Atlan40%18%15%16%12%

351

QC43%15%15%

19%9%

652

Currently Canadian aircraft are carrying out a bombing mission against the IslamState, also known as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of the bombing mission

60%

30%

10%

Approve Disapprove Not Sure


5/15

STRONGLY APPROVE

SOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURE

18-3440%

27%2%14%17%

35-4943%

26%12%14%5%

50-6448%

27%9%9%7%

65+41%

28%14%10%7%

Fem36

309%13%12%

Male50%

24%8%12%7%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVE

NOT SURE

BC38%25%8%14%

16%

AB41%29%8%13%

8%

PR41%29%8%13%

9%

ON45%27%9%11%

8%

A40301210

8

QC44%25%8%14%

9%

Some have suggested that Canada's role should be training local ground troofrom the area to fight against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Do you appro

or disapprove of a training mission?

70%

21%

9%



6/15

BOMBING MISSIONTRAINING MISSIONSOMETHING ELSENOTHING AT ALLNOT SURE

18-34

34%28%18%12%9%

35-49

42%22%22%8%7%

50-64

37%34%15%6%8%

65+

40%30%15%5%10%

Fem

3528%18%7%12%

Male

41%28%17%9%5%

BOMBING MISSIONTRAINING MISSIONSOMETHING ELSENOTHING AT ALL

NOT SURE

BC38%29%20%8%

5%

AB45%22%20%6%

8%

PR36%34%16%6%

8%

ON38%28%16%8%

11%

A3234178

9

QC37%28%18%9%

8%

And if you had to choose Canada's role between a bombing mission, a trainimission, something else, or nothing at all, what would you choose?

Bombing Mission Training Mission Something Else Nothing At All Not Su

38%

28%

17%

8%

9%


7/15

And, how satisfied are you with the government of Canada's response so far Syria's refugee crisis?

VERY SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT DISSATISFIEDVERY DISSATISFIEDNOT SURE

18-34

14%23%16%

32%15%

35-49

19%27%17%26%11%

50-64

18%24%17%

28%13%

65+

22%21%19%27%10%

Fem

14%25%16%3015%

Male

22%24%18%

27%10%

VERY SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT DISSATISFIEDVERY DISSATISFIED

NOT SURE

BC14%25%17%

28%

16%

AB14%21%15%39%

11%

PR15%21%16%

37%

11%

ON20%24%18%27%

12%

A20241726

13

QC18%27%18%

25%

12%

42%

46%

12%

Satisfied Dissatisfied Not Sure


8/15

The Government of Canada has announced plans to settle 25,000 refugees Canada before the end of the year. Do you approve or disapprove of this plan?

STRONGLY APPROVE

SOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURE

18-3429%

10%23%30%8%

35-4923%

20%14%40%3%

50-6420%

22%15%39%4%

65+21%

21%17%38%4%

Fem22%

18%19%366%

Male26%

18%16%37%4%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVE

NOT SURE

BC

27%19%15%30%

10%

AB19%12%20%45%

4%

PR

19%12%19%45%

5%

ON23%19%18%36%

4%

A23241434

5

QC

26%18%17%35%

4%

42%

53%

5%



9/15

And how likely do you think a terrorist attack in Canada is? Is it very likesomewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or not likely at all?

VERY LIKELY

SOMEWHAT LIKELYSOMEWHAT UNLIKELYNOT LIKELY AT ALLNOT SURE

18-3420%

35%25%14%6%

35-4926%

41%24%6%3%

50-6438%

37%16%5%4%

65+29%

42%20%4%4%

Fem28

4419%6%4%

Male28%

33%24%10%4%

VERY LIKELYSOMEWHAT LIKELYSOMEWHAT UNLIKELYNOT LIKELY AT ALL

NOT SURE

BC27%40%22%7%

3%

AB36%31%20%8%

5%

PR36%33%18%8%

6%

ON27%39%22%8%

4%

A234229

4

QC25%40%23%8%

4%

Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely Not At All Likely Not S

28%

38%

22%

8%

4%


10/15

HOMEGROWN TERRORISMINTERNATIONAL TERRORISMNOT SURE

18-3434%40%26%

35-4930%47%24%

50-6437%37%26%

65+35%41%24%

Fem3041%29

Male38%41%21%

HOMEGROWN TERRORISMINTERNATIONAL TERRORISM

NOT SURE

BC30%44%

27%

AB34%40%

26%

PR35%42%

23%

ON36%39%

25%

A3636

28

QC32%44%

24%

And in your opinion what is a greater threat to Canada? Is it homegrown terroristerrorism carried out by Canadians, or international terrorism, terrorism carried o

by foreigners?

34%

41%

25%

Homegrown Terrorism International Terrorism Not Sure


11/15

YESNONOT SURE

18-3425%61%14%

35-4921%63%17%

50-6418%64%18%

65+16%64%21%

Fem206318%

Male21%62%17%

YESNO

NOT SURE

BC10%73%

17%

AB25%56%

19%

PR10%82%

8%

ON25%57%

18%

A1668

17

QC20%63%

17%

And, are you personally concerned about a terrorist attack in the area where yive or work?

20%

63%

17%

Yes No Not Sure


12/15

YESNONOT SURE

18-3436%39%25%

35-4925%42%33%

50-6421%46%34%

65+20%43%38%

Fem204337%

Male32%42%26%

YESNO

NOT SURE

BC30%43%

27%

AB24%54%

23%

PR24%51%

25%

ON25%40%

36%

A2736

3

QC27%40%

33%

And, in your opinion, is Canada prepared to deal with a terrorist attack, or not?

26%

42%

32%

Yes No Not Sure


13/15

SCRIPT

Currently Canadian aircraft are carrying out a bombing mission against the Islamic State, alsoknown as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of the bombing mission?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat DissapproveStrongly Dissapprove

Not Sure

Some have suggested that Canada’s role should be training local ground troops from the area to

fight against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of a training

mission?



Not Sure

And if you had to choose Canada’s role between a bombing mission, a training mission, somethingelse, or nothing at all, what would you choose?

Bombing MissionTraining MissionSomething ElseNothing At All

Not Sure

And, how satisfied are you with the government of Canada’s response so far to Syria’s refugee

crisis?

Very Satisfied

Somewhat SatisfiedSomewhat Dissatisfied

Strongly DissatisfiedNot Sure

The Government of Canada has announced plans to settle 25,000 refugees in Canada before theend of the year. Do you approve or disapprove of this plan?



Not Sure


14/15


15/15

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadpublic affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshotpublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Libgovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majogovernment in the 2015 federal election.

mainstreet poll

Documents