mainstreet - atlantic

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 679 Avalon residents, 652 Central Nova residents & 660 Cumberland Colchester residents by Smart IVR on September 17, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a

mixture of landlines and cell phones. Avalon margin of error: +/- 3.74%; Central Nova margin of error: +/- 3.82%, Cumberland Colchester margin of error: +/- 3.79%, 19 times out of 20.

Results were weighed by age & gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

AVALON, CENTRAL NOVA & CUMBERLAND COLCHESTER

September 21, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls finds strong leads for Liberal candidates Bill Casey and Ken McDonald with Conservative Fred DeLorey leading in Central Nova. Margins of error: Avalon +/- 3.74%; Central Nova +/- 3.82%, Cumberland Colchester +/- 3.79%, 19 times out of 20.

AVALONLiberal Ken McDonald has a strong lead, said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. Independent Scott Andrews is so far in a race for second with the NDP when you look at decided and leaning voters. All three major parties have roughly the same level of voter commitment, but with McDonald leading he has more of them. Lorainne Barnett is in the low double digits for the Conservatives but given everything that has happened this may be a small accomplishment.

CENTRAL NOVAFred DeLorey so far leads a three way race in Central Nova, continued Valentin. On election night DeLorey could end up the winner thanks to the vote split. Among decided and leaning voters DeLorey is ahead by 6% (36%) followed by the Liberals Sean Fraser at 30% and right behind is the NDPs Ross Landry at 26%. 81% of DeLoreys voters say they wont change their mind so he is well positioned, the question is if either the Liberal or NDP candidate can coalesce the change vote for an upset.

CUMBERLAND COLCHESTERBill Casey has a solid lead though the undecided vote is high (28%) in Cumberland-Colchester. Scott Armstrong is hanging on but Caseys local popularity is likely giving him the edge here. Among all voters he holds an 11% lead, among decided and leaning voters its a 15% lead. Despite visits from both the Conservative and Liberal leader, or perhaps, as a result of, the race right now isnt close at all.

ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.

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Available for phone interview: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

A2

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

A3

LORRAINE BARNETT (CPC)JEANNIE BALDWIN (NDP)KEN MCDONALD (LPC)KRISTA BYRNE-PUUMALA (GPC)SCOTT ANDREWS (IND)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-348%8%41%8%16%18%76

35-4912%24%34%5%9%15%152

50-6417%16%34%2%15%17%173

65+12%17%38%2%14%18%275

Female10%15%39%3%13%20%402

Male15%18%34%5%14%14%274

LORRAINE BARNETT (CPC)JEANNIE BALDWIN (NDP)KENNETH MCDONALD (LPC)KRISTA BYRNE-PUUMALA (GPC)SCOTT ANDREWS (IND)UNDECIDED

Certain12%17%37%5%14%14%

Likely13%16%33%0%10%27%

Unlikely21%10%29%3%12%25%

Might9%13%41%0%6%31%

Barnett Baldwin McDonald Byrne-Puumala UndecidedAndrews

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 13%

16%

37%

4% 13%

17%

14%

19%

43%

4% 19%

All Voters Decided & Leaning

AVALON

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDONT KNOW

CPC66%31%3%

NDP60%38%3%

GPC64%26%10%

LPC66%26%8%

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

A4

IND33%32%35%

3%7%

13%

0%

21%

56%

AVALON


A5

FRED DELOREY (CPC)ROSS LANDRY (NDP)SEAN FRASER (LPC)DAVID HACHEY (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain28%19%22%6%

24%

Likely20%23%40%0%17%

Unlikely44%13%7%7%

30%

Might22%16%17%11%35%

FRED DELOREY (CPC)ROSS LANDRY (NDP)SEAN FRASER (LPC)DAVID HACHEY (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3427%22%19%6%25%93

35-4927%20%21%7%

24%123

50-6426%18%25%5%

26%217

65+37%15%21%6%22%219

Female23%14%21%6%

36%353

Male35%24%23%6%13%299

Delorey Landry Fraser Hachey Undecided

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 29%

19%

22%

6% 25%

36%

26%

30%

8%

CENTRAL NOVA




CPC81%19%1%

NDP64%33%2%

GPC40%39%2%

LPC60%40%0%


A6

4%

10%

12%

1%

72%

CENTRAL NOVA


A7

SCOTT ARMSTRONG (CPC)WENDY ROBINSON (NDP)BILL CASEY (LPC)JASON BLANCH (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain24%8%

36%6%

26%

Likely17%18%29%4%36%

Unlikely28%1%

36%4%31%

Might25%7%

27%0%

40%

SCOTT ARMSTRONG (CPC)WENDY ROBINSON (NDP)BILL CASEY (LPC)JASON BLANCH (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3420%7%

23%10%40%

61

35-4920%9%

36%8%27%87

50-6428%9%

40%1%

21%243

65+27%7%

39%1%

25%269

Female27%8%35%5%25%361

Male21%9%

34%5%31%299

Armstrong Robinson Casey Blanch Undecided

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0


24%

8% 35%

5% 28%

33%

12%

48%

7%

CUMBERLAND COLCHESTER

A8



CPC82%11%7%

NDP77%14%9%

GPC63%30%7%

LPC77%13%9%


8%

3%

8%

3%

78%

Armstrong Robinson Casey Blanch Undecided

CUMBERLAND COLCHESTER

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely


Lorraine Barnette of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Jeannie Baldwin of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Ken McDonald of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauKrista Byrne-Puumala of the Green Party led Elizabeth May

Independent candidate Scott Andrews Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]

Lorraine Barnette of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Jeannie Baldwin of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Ken McDonald of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauKrista Byrne-Puumala of the Green Party led Elizabeth May

Independent candidate Scott Andrews Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Dont know

AVALON SCRIPT

A9


CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? Fred Delorey of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Ross Landry of the NDP led by Tom MulcairSean Fraser of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau

David Hachey of the Green Party led Elizabeth May


Fred Delorey of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Ross Landry of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Sean Fraser of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauDavid Hachey of the Green Party led Elizabeth May



Dont know

CENTRAL NOVA SCRIPT

A10


CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely


Scott Armstrong of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Wendy Robinson of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Bill Casey of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Jason Blanch of the Green Party led Elizabeth May


Scott Armstrong of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Wendy Robinson of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Bill Casey of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Jason Blanch of the Green Party led Elizabeth May



Dont know

CUMBERLAND COLCHESTER SCRIPT

A11

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.

mainstreet - atlantic

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