mainstreet - saskatchewan a
DESCRIPTION
A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find the Conservatives leading in Saskatchewan with the NDP leading in Saskatoon and a three-way race underway in Regina. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.83, 19 times out of 20.TRANSCRIPT
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,853 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR™ on October 6, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/-
1.83%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-3.19%; Saskatoon: +/-2.96%; rest of Saskatchewan: +/-3.5%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and
gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
October 9, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find the Conservatives leading in Saskatchewan with the NDP leading in Saskatoon and a three-way race underway in Regina. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.83, 19 times out of 20.
“For a long while now Saskatchewan has only been represented by Conservative MPs, we expect that to change on Election Night,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
“Redistribution has made urban seats in Regina and Saskatoon prime targets for the NDP and Liberals and we can see from the regional numbers that they are well positioned.”
“In Saskatoon, The NDP leads with 31% compared to 28% for the Conservatives with the Liberals in third at 21% - only 10% separates the three parties. In Regina, there is a three-way race taking place with the Conservatives at 29%, the NDP at 24% and the Liberals at 23%. This is going to make for some very interesting riding campaigns particularly in Regina where the Conservatives might be able to run up the middle and win on vote splits.”
“Outside the cities, the Conservatives continue to dominate with a 17% lead over the NDP. For the NDP, Saskatchewan is a bright spot in the challenging national landscape they now face though they will need to hold onto this support or it could be the Liberals who end up making gains.”
“We asked Saskatchewanians what was most important in basing their vote and almost half, 47%, said it was the party followed by 25% who said it was the party leader. Only 15% said it would be their local candidate.”
“We also asked about strategic voting and almost a third said they will vote strategically this election. This will be di�cult to execute well however because the regional numbers are so tight. In some districts it will make sense to vote NDP and in others it will make more sense to vote Liberal, regardless it will be di�cult to know what kind of district you are in. Making things more complicated the numbers are constantly changing.”
“Provincially, Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party hold a commanding lead with the support of 57% of decided voters, that’s almost 60%. The Provincial NDP are performing best in Saskatoon right now (36%) and are outperforming their federal cousins in Saskatoon by 5% (31% for Federal NDP). The Liberals and Green Party are trailing far back provincially at 7% and 2% respectively.
”With a provincial election coming up in 2016, we’ll certainly be keeping an eye on the province,” finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.
Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.
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Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]
A2
A3
LEANING AND DECIDED
CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALGREENUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3427%27%19%4%
24%422
35-4933%25%18%4%
20%737
50-6438%21%18%4%19%807
65+40%20%17%2%21%887
Female31%24%17%4%24%1586
Male36%24%19%4%17%1267
If a Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALGREENUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
Regina29%24%23%4%19%943
Rest of SK37%20%15%3%25%784
Saskatoon28%31%21%6%13%1126
Conservative NDP Liberal Green Undecided
All Voters Decided Only
34%
24%
18%
4% 21%
43%
30%
23%
5%
A4
LEANING AND DECIDEDRegional
Saskatoon
28%
31%
21%
6% 13%
Regina
29%
24%
23%
4% 19%
Rest of Saskatchewan
37%
20%
15%
3% 25%
A5
And who would be your second choice?
CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALGREENUNDECIDED
18-3416%28%32%12%13%
35-4921%20%33%9%17%
50-6416%21%30%14%20%
65+15%21%31%12%21%
Female18%23%30%12%18%
Male16%22%33%12%17%
CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALGREENUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
Regina19%24%31%11%26%
Rest of SK18%21%29%12%20%
Saskatoon15%25%37%12%11%
Conservative NDP Liberal Green Undecided
17%
22%
31%
12%
17%
A6
And if a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
SASKATCHEWANNDPLIBERALGREENUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3441%22%9%4%23%422
35-4945%30%6%3%16%737
50-6448%27%5%3%18%807
65+54%25%3%1%17%887
Female45%27%5%2%19%1586
Male48%24%7%4%18%1267
SASKATCHEWANNDPLIBERALGREENUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
Regina41%30%6%5%19%943
Rest of SK50%21%6%3%21%784
Saskatoon42%36%7%3%12%1126
Saskatchewan NDP Liberal Green Undecided
All Voters Decided Only
46%
26%
6% 3% 19%
57%
32%
7% 4%
A7
Lobby groups have been asking people to vote strategically in this election or to cast a ballot for a party other than a sincere preference to help stop another party from winning. Do you plan to vote strategically in this election?
YESNONOT SURESAMPLE
18-3439%48%13%422
35-4926%49%26%737
50-6422%51%27%807
65+25%48%27%887
Female30%46%24%1586
Male27%51%21%1267
YESNONOT SURESAMPLE
Yes No Not Sure
Regina28%49%23%943
Rest of SK27%50%23%784
Saskatoon31%48%20%1126
28%
49%
22%
A8
When casting your vote, which of the following is more important: The Party, The Party Leader, or the Local Candidate?
THE PARTYTHE PARTY LEADERTHE LOCAL CANDIDATENOT SURESAMPLE
Regina46%29%13%12%943
Rest of SK48%23%16%13%784
Saskatoon47%28%15%10%1126
THE PARTYTHE PARTY LEADERTHE LOCAL CANDIDATENOT SURESAMPLE
18-3449%21%20%10%422
35-4948%27%9%17%737
50-6445%27%17%11%807
65+47%27%15%11%887
Female48%26%15%11%
1586
Male47%25%15%13%1267
Party Party Leader Local Candidate Undecided
47%
25%
15%
12%
A9
And, which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the Federal election? Is it, the Economy, Childcare, Health Care, Agriculture, Immigration, or another issue?
ECONOMYCHILDCAREHEALTH CAREAGRICULTUREIMMIGRATIONSOMETHING ELSENOT SURE
Regina39%4%15%3%2%
23%15%
Rest of SK41%5%17%2%3%16%15%
Saskatoon37%6%15%2%2%
23%15%
ECONOMYCHILDCAREHEALTH CAREAGRICULTUREIMMIGRATIONSOMETHING ELSENOT SURE
18-3431%11%12%2%0%23%21%
35-4943%4%16%1%5%18%13%
50-6445%2%18%1%3%18%12%
65+41%2%
20%7%2%12%12%
Female32%4%
20%3%3%18%20%
Male47%7%12%2%2%
20%10%
40%
5%16%
2%2%
19%
15%
Economy Immigration Education Agriculture Childcare Something else Not sure
A10
SCRIPT
If the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
The Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperThe NDP led by Tom Mulcair
The Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauThe Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And who would be your second choice?
The Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperThe NDP led by Tom Mulcair
The Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauThe Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And if a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin LamoureuxGreen Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
Lobby groups have been asking people to vote strategically in this election or to cast a ballot for a party other than a sincere preference to help stop another party from winning. Do you plan to vote
strategically in this election?
YesNo
Not sure
A11
SCRIPT
When casting your vote, which of the following is more important: The Party, The Party Leader, or the Local Candidate?
The PartyThe Party Leader
The Local CandidateNot sure
And, which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the Federal election? Is it, the Economy, Childcare, Health Care, Agriculture, Immigration, or something else?
EconomyChildcare
Health careAgricultureImmigration
Something ElseNot sure
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.
Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.