mainstreet poll, manitoba march 31
TRANSCRIPT
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 1/16
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,860 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR™ on March 29th, 2016. A mixture of landlines
cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.27%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.07%; ReManitoba: +/-3.4%; ; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Ce
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM CST, MARCH 31st, 2016PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
MANITOBA ELECTION
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 2/16
PCs GAIN IN WINNIPEG
March 31, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC party picking up suppoWinnipeg as the number of undecided voters drops. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of e
of +/- 2.27%, 19 times out of 20.
Following the Easter weekend it’s the PC party that seems to have gained momentum” said Quito Ma
President of Mainstreet Research. “The PCs are now leading definitively in Winnipeg. While their leveupport has dropped outside Winnipeg they hold such a large lead it almost doesn’t matter. If the PCs
hold onto these numbers the NDP and Liberals will find themselves virtually wiped out.”
Among Decided and Leaning Voters (province wide): PCs 45% (+1%), NDP 23% (-1%), Liberals 24%
Greens 7% (-)
In Winnipeg the PCs hold a 13% among decided and leaning voters” continued Maggi. “Support is be
plit by the NDP and Liberals, it’s the perfect storm.”
When we look at party support strength the PCs are leading there as well with the vast majority of t
upporters reporting they will not change their minds. Among second ballot preference for voters wmight switch their ballots it‘s the Liberals who come out on top if there is slippage for the PCs or NDP. PCs are essentially tied as the second choice of Liberal supporters, essentially a wash.”
The last opportunity for the NDP and Liberals is now the televised debate. After weeks of campaignBrian Pallister and the PC Party have not made any significant mistakes. The televised leaders’ debate
kely be the last best opportunity to turn this campaign around,” he finished.
About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three level
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in Br
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the opolling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30-
Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected]
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 3/16
If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support? (Manitoba)
UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green
0
5
0
5
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 4/16
If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support? (Winnipeg)
UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green
0
5
0
5
20
25
30
35
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 5/16
If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support? (Rest of Manitoba)
UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 6/16
If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support?
PC
NDP
Liberal
Green
Undecided
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
Sample
Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB
PC
NDP
Liberal
Green
Undecided
Sample
PC
18%
36%
18%
6%
22%
1,860
22%
33%
19%
5%
21%
1,021
12%
42%
17%
6%
23%
839
15%
26%
28%
10%
21%
220
20%
38%
14%
4%
25%
391
18%
43%
14%
5%
20%
572
19%
42%
15%
3%
21%
677
19%
38%
17%
8%
18%
869
16%
35%
20%
3%
26%
991
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 7/16
And which party are youleaning towards voting for?
[Undecided Only]
UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green
9%
11%
12%
6%
62%
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 8/16
If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support?
DECIDED & LEANING
DECIDED ONLY
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 9/16
DECIDED AND LEANINGWINNIPEG
NDP PC Liberal Green
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
NDP PC MLP GP
2 7 %
4 0 %
2 5 %
8 %
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 10/16
DECIDED AND LEANINGREST OF MANITOBA
NDP PC Liberal Green
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
5
0
5
0
NDP PC MLP GP
1 5 %
5 3 %
2 2 %
9 %
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 11/16
If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support?[DECIDED AND LEANING]
PC
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB
20%
32%
35%
13%
184
25%
46%
21%
8%
325
23%
53%
18%
6%
499
24%
52%
20%
4%
561
22%
44%
22%
11%
759
24%
45%
26%
5%
810
23%
45%
24%
8%
1,569
27%
40%
25%
8%
836
15%
53%
22%
9%
733
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Sample
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Sample
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 12/16
Support Strength
StrongMight Change
Not Sure
76%16%8%
PC
StrongMight Change
Not Sure
60%29%12%
NDP
StrongMight Change
Not Sure
59%28%12%
Liberals
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 13/16
Second Choice
Liberal Voters Green Party Voters
NDP VotersPC Voters
23%
37%
9%
31%
14%
52%
17%
17%
34%
31%
15%
20%
9%
9%
44%
38%
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 14/16
If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James BeddomeUndecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome
Undecided
SCRIPT
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 15/16
ONLY WE
CALLED
THELIBERAL
MAJORITY
Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running
political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 16/16
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h
been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major
government in the 2015 federal election.
CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca
@MainStResearch
fb.com/mainstresearch