mainstreet - manitoba dreams and nightmares

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,844 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR™ on April 5th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.28%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.05%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.44%; ; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM CST, APRIL 10, 2016PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK

DREAMS AND NIGHTMARES

WORST CASE SCENARIO RIGHT NOW FOR PCs IS A MINORITY GOVERNMENT

April 10, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – After crunching the numbers from the newest Manitoba poll released, Mainstreet Research finds the worst case scenario for the PCs right now is a strong minority government. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.28%, 19 times out of 20.

“After looking at the numbers from our earlier release this week we wanted to see what the best and worst case scenarios might be for the current parties” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “For the best case scenario we gave each party all of its voters plus leaning voters and all the soft voters who might switch from other parties. For the worst case scenario we took away all voters except diehard supporters. What we see is that no matter what the scenario, the PCs still win government.”

“Even in a best case scenario for the NDP using the current numbers they would only be at 30% among decided voters using our formula. The PCs would still be at 48% provincially and at 45% in Winnipeg where they would have a 10% lead.”

“Without a dramatic change in the next few days this race is a foregone conclusion.”

“A week is a lifetime in politics but it’s hard to see how anything but a PC government will be elected come April 19th. Even if you add a generous margin of error to these results the best case scenario for the NDP is a dead heat in Winnipeg. The PC lead outside the city is just too large to make up ground.”

“For the Liberals there are two distinct possibilities: a historic finish or a return to previous results. The worst case scenario using the current numbers would find them at 8%. Enough perhaps to hold onto the one seat they already have but they would be hard pressed to add another.”

“As we move into the final days the leaders will have a chance to show us what they’re made of when more Manitobans than ever before will be following the election campaign. There is still time for a surprise but time is running out. If the NDP or Liberals are going to hold the PCs to a minority we will need to see a change of numbers soon,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

B2

NDP DREAM SCENARIO

B3

UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green

All Voters

Winnipeg

Rest of Manitoba

Decided Only

Decided Winnipeg

Decided RoM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

24% 38% 11% 6% 21%

28% 36% 9% 7% 20%

17% 42% 14% 22%

30% 48% 14% 8%

35% 45% 11% 9%

21% 54% 18% 7%

5%

NDP NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

B4


All Voters

Winnipeg

Rest of Manitoba

Decided Only

Decided Winnipeg

Decided RoM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

12% 44% 19% 9% 16%

15% 43% 19% 9% 14%

8% 47% 19% 8% 18%

15% 53% 23% 10%

17% 50% 22% 11%

10% 57% 23% 10%

B5


PC DREAM SCENARIO

All Voters

Winnipeg

Rest of Manitoba

Decided Only

Decided Winnipeg

Decided RoM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

18% 46% 11% 7% 19%

22% 43% 11% 7% 17%

11% 50% 12% 21%

22% 56% 14% 8%

26% 52% 13% 9%

14% 64% 15% 7%

5%

B6

PC NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

All Voters

Winnipeg

Rest of Manitoba

Decided Only

Decided Winnipeg

Decided RoM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

22% 33% 18% 9% 20%

26% 31% 17% 9% 18%

15% 36% 19% 8% 22%

27% 41% 22% 11%

31% 37% 21% 11%

19% 46% 24% 11%


B7


LIBERAL DREAM SCENARIO

All Voters

Winnipeg

Rest of Manitoba

Decided Only

Decided Winnipeg

Decided RoM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

15% 36% 23% 6% 20%

19% 33% 24% 6% 19%

10% 41% 21% 22%

19% 46% 28% 7%

23% 41% 29% 7%

12% 53% 27% 7%

B8

LIBERAL NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

All Voters

Winnipeg

Rest of Manitoba

Decided Only

Decided Winnipeg

Decided RoM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

22% 44% 7% 9% 18%

27% 41% 6% 8% 17%

14% 49% 7% 9% 20%

27% 54% 8% 11%

33% 49% 8% 10%

18% 62% 9% 12%


ONLY WE CALLED

THE LIBERAL

MAJORITY.

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITEmainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER @MainStResearch

FACEBOOKfb.com/mainstresearch

© 2016 Mainstreet Research. All rights eservedr

mainstreet - manitoba dreams and nightmares

Documents