mainstreet - manitoba january 27, 2016

7/25/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba January 27, 2016

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MANITOBA[JANUARY 27, 2016]

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,628 Manitoba residents by Smart IVRon Januar25th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.43%, times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.47%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.419 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Census

METHODOLOGY


2/13

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyrigh

The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republish

with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmed

PCs DOMINATING

January 27, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC Party continuing to lea

Manitoba with the Liberals and NDP tied for second. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of eof +/- 2.43%, 19 times out of 20.

The PCs are continuing to dominate throughout the province said Quito Maggi, President of Mainst

Research. They now have almost twice the support of either the Liberals or NDP in Winnipeg, while thold an even larger lead in the rest of the province.

Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 52% (+8%), NDP 20% (-3%), Liberals 20% (-7%), Greens 9% (

Most PC voters (76%) have decided theyve made up their mind, continued Maggi. Those numbers d

or the NDP (64%) and Liberals (55%) so there is potential for movement. With both parties in second phe race to be the PC alternative may be the most crucial.

In the race to be the PC alternative both the NDP and Liberals face challenges. For the NDP, it is GSelingers high disapproval rating: 60% of Manitobans disapprove of the job hes doing. For the Libera

s Rana Bokharis visibility: 41% dont know what to make of her yet. Interestingly while her suppoWinnipeg is higher, the support she has in the rest of the province is actually stronger. Support forPalister meanwhile is solid throughout the province.

These kinds of results this far out make it Brian Palisters race to lose. With over half the province indicahey will vote PC and 2/3 of those voters saying they have made up their mind it will take a lot to disp

him at the top of the polls. The more interesting race right now is who the non-PC alternative will be

here isnt one it could be a landslide win for the PCs. If the Liberals and NDP spit the non-PC vote it cead to a lot of surprise PC wins on election night, finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levegovernment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BrColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the

polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]


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If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI

GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMEUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3416%34%9%

9%33%172

35-4912%37%22%

8%21%388

50-6416%37%15%

5%26%495

65+15%49%10%

3%23%573

Fema15%37%15%

6%26%858

Male14%40%13%

7%26%770


GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMEUNDECIDED

SAMPLE

Winnipeg18%33%15%8%

27%

797

Rest of MB10%49%

12%5%

24%

831

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

15%

39%

14%

7%

26%


4/13

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED AND LEANING)

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARIGREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME

18-3420%50%14%15%

35-4917%47%27%9%

50-6421%49%23%7%

65+20%63%14%4%

Fema20%50%21%9%

Male19%53%19%10%


GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME

Winnipeg23%46%

21%

10%

Rest of MB14%61%17%

8%

NDP PC Liberal Green

20%

52%

20%

9%


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And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

7%

19%

10%

5%

60%


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Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

NDP

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

64%

28%

8%

PC

Strong

Might ChangeNot Sure

76%

16%

8%

LIBERAL

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

55%

28%

17%


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And who would be your second choice? [MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE ONLY]

NDP 32 %

MLP 37%

GPC 4%

UD 27%

PC 17%

MLP 43%

GP 17%

UD 23%

PC 33%

NDP 43%

GP 9%

UD 15%

PC 36%

NDP 11%

MLP 33%

UD 21%

PC VOTERS NDP VOTERS

LIBERAL VOTERS GREEN PARTY VOTERS


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Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader?

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-34

13%23%10%11%43%

35-49

11%28%16%4%

42%

50-64

6%28%17%9%41%

65+

8%27%17%11%37%

Fema

9%25%15%8%

42%

Male

10%27%14%8%

40%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Winnipeg7%31%16%8%

38%

Rest of MB15%18%13%8%

46%

10%26%15%8%

41%

10%

26%

15%8%

41%

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not S


9/13

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader?


18-34

15%19%13%42%11%

35-49

8%19%23%40%11%

50-64

10%17%18%43%13%

65+

11%18%18%45%8%

Fema

13%19%18%38%13%

Male

10%17%18%46%9%


NOT SURE

Winnipeg12%22%19%37%

11%

Rest of MB10%12%16%

51%

11%

11%18%18%42%11%

11%

18%

18%

42%

11%



10/13

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as PC Leader?


18-34

23%25%9%

20%24%

35-49

18%33%20%14%15%

50-64

18%32%16%19%15%

65+

28%37%17%10%9%

Fema

18%34%15%14%19%

Male

25%28%15%19%14%


NOT SURE

Winnipeg17%32%18%15%

18%

Rest of MB28%29%10%

19%

14%

21%31%15%16%16%

21%

31%

15%

16%

16%



11/13

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

And, which party are you leaning towards? [Undecided Only]

NDP led by Greg Selinger

Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian PallisterLiberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will changeyour mind before the next election?

Strong SupporterMight Change Mind

Not Sure

And who would be your second choice?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader?Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as Progressive Conservat

Leader?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove


12/13

ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


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CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

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@MainStResearch

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Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canad

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshotspublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Libgovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majogovernment in the 2015 federal election.

mainstreet - manitoba january 27, 2016

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