locating livestock systems, starting with dairy discussion elpen management meeting 3 elpen
Post on 02-Jan-2016
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Geographically
specific
The ELPEN system needs:
• Appraise policy impacts at flexible scale (national, regional, local, grid):
• Policy makers need to know what and where
• Appraise impacts on the environment (livestock practices in relation to the physical conditions)
• Appraise impacts on the social environment
Why spatially explicit?EU Nuts 2 areas
Geographically
specific
Output map: PhosphateExpected concentration of P in surface water in 2015 under current legislation
0.0 - 0.15 mg/l0.15 - 0.300.30 - 0.600.60 - 1.001.00 - 2.00
No data
ELPEN
Problems encountered when locating farms and farm types
• Availability of consistent up-to-date EU data is limited
• Aggregated data only on level of administrative entities
• Little individual farm (survey) data available• Individual farm data only linked to administrative
entity (usually not to location) • If individual farm data available only allowed to
present on aggregated level
ELPEN
Localization of farm types in the ELPEN system
Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)livestock typesfarm size
Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)livestock typesfarm size
Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)livestock typesfarm size
Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)livestock typesfarm size
Nationalprobability maps:per gridcell:probability (%) oflivestock types,farm types + size
Eurostat data
maps with portions offarm / livestock types per gridcell, such that per regionthe amount and size oflivestock / farms coincide with the Eurostat data
Allocation model
Impact assessments
Computations,Knowledge
rules
ELPEN
Localization of livestock systems in each country
National statistical data per region
Additionalnational data and maps
CORINE map
ELPEN
Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)of livestock types,farm type and size
overlay
Knowledge rules
Knowledge rules
Allocation procedure in the ELPEN system
ELPEN
1) The FSS data -> nr of farms, ha and animals /type /FSS-region
2) Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions (on the basis of national statistical data)
3) Further allocation among suitable CORINE land cover grids (on the basis of expert rules)
4) Further refinement on the basis of other data e.g. climate, altitude, slope, distance to big cities, etc. (on the basis of expert rules)
What information do we need from national experts? (1)For theProportional distribution among smaller administrative regions
1a) In what regional level do you have your national data on livestock systems by farm type?BE:
DK: on county level (NUTS3) in FSS-typology (1999)
FR: on department level (NUTS3) in FSS-typologies (1997, ->1999)
GE:
GR:
NL: on farm level (standard NEG-typology, at Alterra/LEI also in FSS-typology)
UK: NUTS3
Other?:
What level is useful for localization in ELPEN?
ELPEN
What information do we need from national experts? (2)For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions
1b) The nr of all farms/region + % that has dairy (> 5 cows)
1c) nr. + distribution/region of all farms over farm types (FSS)
1d) nr. + distribution /region of animals (in lu) over animal types
1e) the average size / region of the specialised dairy farms
and/or?
1f) nr.ha + distribution /region of land use types over farm types (useful for knowledge rules, not directly for allocation)
1g) ??
ELPEN
What information do we need from national experts? (2)For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions
2 What is the data availability, how accurate? Available: Accuracy: Spatial:
BE:
DK: at the National Statistical Office 100% / 2 years NUTS3
NL: at ALTERRA, LEI 100% / year per farm
FR: at the Ministry of Agriculture 10% / 2 years , 100% / 10years NUTS3
GE:
GR:
UK:
other??
ELPEN
3) Why do the distributions of dairy differ between regions? Exercise -> national and regional differences in land use/farm type
4a) Determine the suitability of CORINE classes for dairy Exercise -> FSS statistical data on NUTS2 level combined with 7 CORINE classes
4b) Formulate rules to derive different distributions between regions Exercise -> National data -> NUTS2 level combined with LGN grass + maize
What information do we need from national experts? (3)For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions
5) What additonal rules can be used for localising livestock, applied on what other physical / spatial data?BE:DK: land use / bloc + digitized maps of 90% of the perm. Grassland + 25x25m not arableFR: Terreuti Land cover: 12x12km grid (usable for the localization of maize and grassland)GE: GR: NL: LGN Land cover: 25x25m grid (usable for the localization of maize and grassland)UK: Land cover 30x30m (only England?)??:
6) How durable are the regional distributions ?7) How durable are your expert rules?
What information do we need from national experts? (4)For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions
8) Indicate the dominant dairy breeds per region, durability?Data available:
European: FAO + European veterinary associationBE:DK:FR: at Institut de l’Elevage, yearly data collection of > 60% of the dairy farms GE:GR:NL:UK:??:
ELPEN
Additional information
9) Overview of the main national statistical sources
10) Relevant national physical / spatial data
11) Additional data of whole EU
ELPEN
More general information
Make proposal, including:FR: We make a first proposal for a French student who will do the allocation work next yearDK: Erling makes description/county/CORINE class of the distribution of relevant land cover types
Short description of work
List of deliverables
Estimation of time needed
Estimation of costs for non-ELPEN members (450 EURO a day)
Deadline: ??? FR: Data on NUTS3 level of 1997 as quickly as possible, the student next spring for ca. 6 months.DK: end of October
Practical issues:
ELPEN
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